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How Alliances and Conflict Affect Chemical Weapon Adoption Among Violent Non-State Actors

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How Alliances and Conflict Affect Chemical Weapon Adoption Among Violent Non-State Actors Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS Green, Aaron M.; Price, Christopher M. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64173 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS by Aaron M. Green and Christopher M. Price December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Tristan Volpe Co-Advisor: Timothy C. Warren Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS 6. AUTHOR(S) Aaron M. Green and Christopher M. Price 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) With an ongoing pivot toward great power competition, there may be a temptation to reduce counter-proliferation efforts against violent non-state actors (VNSA) to a peripheral mission for U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). However, the current and emerging threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) acquisition and use by VNSA are increasing through the ubiquity of various technologies, materials, and internet access. This research analyzes the use of chemical weapons (CW) by VNSA and the unique challenges of detecting and combating CW at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This research first implements regression models using chemical incident data from 1995–2017 to identify which strategic and operational environments are associated with VNSA CW adoption, and uses the outcomes to create a template for predictive intelligence methods for chemical threats. Next, the researchers conduct social network analysis to investigate commonalities among VNSA with chemical programs, and to determine if these CW tactics are geographically migrating. Then, lessons learned from the case study involving al-Qaeda in Iraq yield a proposed disruption model tested in a plausible, near-future scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are provided for USSOCOM and other relevant entities to improve counter-WMD efforts as they relate to the prediction and disruption of the chemical programs of VNSA. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF WMD, weapons of mass destruction, chemical, non-state, terrorist, terrorism, deter, PAGES deterrence, SOF, special operations forces, IO, information operations, MISO, IW, 157 information warfare, SNA, social network analysis, dark network, topology, disruption, CP, 16. PRICE CODE counter-proliferation, NP, nonproliferation, CT, counter-terrorism, regression, strategic, environmental factors, intelligence, R-Studio, MATLAB, simulation, agent based model 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS Aaron M. Green Lieutenant, United States Navy BA, California State University San Marcos, 2012 Christopher M. Price Lieutenant, United States Navy BS, U.S. Naval Academy, 2011 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS (IRREGULAR WARFARE) and MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION STRATEGY AND POLITICAL WARFARE from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Tristan Volpe Advisor Timothy C. Warren Co-Advisor Kalev I. Sepp Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT With an ongoing pivot toward great power competition, there may be a temptation to reduce counter-proliferation efforts against violent non-state actors (VNSA) to a peripheral mission for U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). However, the current and emerging threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) acquisition and use by VNSA are increasing through the ubiquity of various technologies, materials, and internet access. This research analyzes the use of chemical weapons (CW) by VNSA and the unique challenges of detecting and combating CW at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This research first implements regression models using chemical incident data from 1995–2017 to identify which strategic and operational environments are associated with VNSA CW adoption, and uses the outcomes to create a template for predictive intelligence methods for chemical threats. Next, the researchers conduct social network analysis to investigate commonalities among VNSA with chemical programs, and to determine if these CW tactics are geographically migrating. Then, lessons learned from the case study involving al-Qaeda in Iraq yield a proposed disruption model tested in a plausible, near-future scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are provided for USSOCOM and other relevant entities to improve counter-WMD efforts as they relate to the prediction and disruption of the chemical programs of VNSA. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. FRAMING THE PROBLEM ...................................................................1 B. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................3 C. RESEARCH QUESTION .........................................................................5 1. Significance .....................................................................................5 D. RESEARCH FINDINGS ...........................................................................6 II. LITERATURE REVIEW .....................................................................................9 A. A GAP IN COUNTER-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS? ....................10 B. DETERRENCE AND THE VNSA QUAGMIRE .................................16 C. PUTTING THE VNSA CW THREAT INTO PERSPECTIVE ..........23 D. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSES AND STANDING GUIDANCE ..............................................................................................25 E. ADOPTION, MIGRATION, AND CONTAGION ...............................30 III. CONFLICT AND VNSA CW ADOPTION ......................................................35 A. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................35 B. MODEL RESULTS .................................................................................38 C. INCORPORATING TIME-PHASED ANALYSIS ..............................44 D. ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................45 IV. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS AND DISRUPTION .................................47 A. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS THEORY ......................................47 B. TERMINOLOGY ....................................................................................48 C. DATASETS ..............................................................................................51 D. INTER-ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS ..........................................52 1. Topology........................................................................................52 2. Centrality Measures.....................................................................54 3. Brokerage......................................................................................57 E. DISRUPTION MODEL ..........................................................................59 1. Actor-Based Model ......................................................................59 2. Model Time-Steps: IO Disruption ..............................................63 3. Model Time-Steps: Coercive Disruption ...................................65 V.
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