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Latin America 2019 The Mobile Economy Latin America 2019 Copyright © 2019 GSM Association The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with almost operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including authoritative industry reports and research. Our data handset and device makers, software companies, equipment covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every providers and internet companies, as well as organisations country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, available, comprising tens of millions of individual data Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by of regional conferences. leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate decision-making and long-term investment planning. The website at www.gsma.com data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com info@gsmaintelligence.com Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1 THE MOBILE MARKET IN NUMBERS 8 1.1 484 million unique mobile subscribers by 2025 9 1.2 Latin America continues its transition from a connected to digital society 12 1.3 A modest financial outlook: 4G investment begins to pay dividends, as 5G 14 capex ramps up 2 MOBILE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND 15 ADDRESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES 2.1 Economic contribution 16 2.2 Enhancing the benefits of mobile internet 19 2.3 A big commitment to big goals 21 3 KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS 25 3.1 4G adoption rises alongside the potential for 5G 26 3.2 IoT: gauging the potential in key growth areas 29 3.3 Innovation through investment: startups accelerating commercial 38 opportunities 3.4 Three markets prepare for AI in their digital agendas 41 4 POLICY AND REGULATION TO ADVANCE DIGITAL 43 SOCIETY The Mobile Economy Latin America 2019 Executive Summary Surging 4G adoption lays the foundation for 5G Driven by ongoing network investment and Organisations in the region agree that the main upcoming spectrum assignments, 4G adoption opportunity for incremental revenue from 5G will accelerate in Latin America over the next lies in enterprise use cases. Higher data speeds few years, reaching 67% by 2025. This will will improve productivity in sectors relying pave the way for 5G. The two technologies on massive machine-type communications will coexist for a long time, with 5G’s first (mMTC), as well as in mining, logistics and commercial launches in the region expected manufacturing; for this reason, enterprises in in 2020 (in Mexico, Uruguay and Brazil). We the region see enhanced data speeds as the expect 5G adoption in Latin America to reach most important 5G capability. 5G-based fixed 7% by 2025. Spectrum access, site acquisition, wireless access (FWA) represents another fibre backhaul and other infrastructure opportunity, as enterprise 5G deployments in regulations will become increasingly important remote areas can also improve coverage for as operators and policymakers prepare to build nearby villages. 5G infrastructure. Nearly 90% of mobile subscribers will be mobile internet users by 2025 By the middle of 2019 there were 422 million saturation with penetration rates at around unique mobile subscribers across Latin 80%. Other countries (such as Nicaragua, America, accounting for 67% of the total Cuba, Guatemala and Honduras) still population. Nearly 80% of mobile subscribers exhibit growth opportunities, however. The also subscribe to mobile internet, and this is subscriber penetration rate in Venezuela is forecast to reach 87% by 2025. forecast to decline in the short term because of socioeconomic instabilities, which have Subscriber penetration varies by country. A caused its population to shrink. We expect the number of markets (including Chile, Panama, country’s subscriber growth rate to become Uruguay and Costa Rica) are approaching positive again by 2025. Mobile boosts economic growth and supports UN Sustainable Development Goals In 2018, mobile technologies and services funding. By 2023, mobile’s contribution to generated 5% of GDP in Latin America, a the Latin American economy will reach just contribution that amounted to around $260 over $300 billion as countries increasingly billion of economic value added. The mobile benefit from the increased uptake of mobile ecosystem also supported 1.7 million jobs services and the associated improvements in (directly and indirectly) and raised more than productivity and efficiency. $38 billion through taxation for public sector 2 Executive Summary The Mobile Economy Latin America 2019 The mobile industry has also been a strong Education) and 5 (Gender Equality), such as advocate for the UN Sustainable Development through the GSMA Tech4Girls initiative, which Goals (SDGs): since 2015, it has increased its comprises a series of hands-on educational impact on all 17 SDGs. In Latin America, the workshops for young girls, designed to increase industry has made a strong contribution over their self-confidence and interest in technology. the past year specifically on SDG 4 (Quality Gauging the potential of key IoT growth areas Total IoT connections in Latin America are impact on productivity; revenue protection growing at an average annual rate of 14% and security are listed among the primary and are on track to reach 1.3 billion by 2025, operational benefits. accounting for 5% of global IoT connections. Barriers to deployment, such as upfront costs, While consumer IoT will still make up the are gradually being addressed through national majority of IoT connections (56%) in the IoT deployment strategies. Governments can region in 2025, the number of enterprise IoT play a key role in strengthening the rollouts connections is set to almost triple between and growth of IoT, to improve living standards 2018 and 2025. Enterprises in Latin America through security and healthcare, for example. believe that IoT deployments have a strong Advancing the digital era with startup investments and future technologies There have been many initiatives between the emergence of future technologies. The startups, operators, ecosystem players groundwork for this can already be seen in and venture-capital firms to advance the three Latin American markets: Mexico has set development of emerging technologies such out a national strategy for supporting digital as AI. Startups, in particular, have helped transformation and AI, while Uruguay and to drive innovation and unlock commercial Colombia have begun to formulate similar opportunities. Businesses, as well as frameworks. government bodies, need to prepare for Policy and regulation to enable a digital society Governments and regulators across Latin • planning for 5G development through American countries frequently modify policies spectrum roadmaps and regulations to keep up with political • designing tax policies that foster developments and technological change. connectivity and affordability Recent regulatory changes to support digital transformation have included: • devising national data protection frameworks to accelerate the digital • creating independent institutional economy. frameworks for legal certainty • aligning municipal laws and national digital ambitions in areas such as network deployment Executive Summary 3 Smartphone connections 4G connections Mobile Economy 2018 2018 427m (66% adoption rate) Latin America 2025 263m 543m (79% adoption rate) (41% adoption rate)* 2025 Unique Mobile IoT connections 2018 468m mobile internet (67% adoption rate)* subscribers users 526m 2018 2018 2025 5G connections in 2025 (7% of total connections)* 51m 416m 326m 1.3bn *Excluding licensed cellular IoT PENETRATION RATE PENETRATION RATE CAGR CAGR 67% (% of population) 73% (% of population) 64% 2018–25 52% 2018–25 5% Mobile of GDP 2% 4% industry $261bn 2018 484m 422m contribution 2025 2025 to GDP $300bn 2023 SIM Operator revenues Public funding Employment connections and investment Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory Excluding licensed cellular IoT Total revenues and spectrum fees) 2018 2018 2018 $67bn 644m 2025 1.7m 2018 PENETRATION RATE 102% (% of population) 104% CAGR 2018–25 $38bn 1.2% $76bn Jobs Operator capex of $127 billion directly and indirectly supported 700m for the period 2018-2025 by the mobile ecosystem 2025 Smartphone connections 4G connections Mobile Economy 2018 2018 427m (66% adoption rate) Latin America 2025 263m 543m (79% adoption rate) (41% adoption rate)* 2025 Unique Mobile IoT connections 2018 468m mobile internet (67% adoption rate)* subscribers users 526m 2018 2018 2025 5G connections in 2025 (7% of total connections)* 51m 416m 326m 1.3bn *Excluding licensed cellular IoT PENETRATION RATE PENETRATION RATE CAGR CAGR 67% (% of population) 73% (% of population) 64% 2018–25 52% 2018–25 5% Mobile of GDP 2% 4% industry $261bn 2018 484m 422m contribution 2025 2025 to GDP $300bn 2023 SIM Operator revenues Public funding Employment connections and investment Mobile ecosystem
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