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2018 Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean Evolution of investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts, determinants and policy challenges Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones 2 Executive summary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Daniel Titelman Chief, Economic Development Division Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Division The Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean is issued annually by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The 2018 edition was prepared under the leadership of Daniel Titelman, Chief of the Division, and coordinated by Jürgen Weller. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics Division, the Division of International Trade and Integration, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogotá, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. Part I, entitled, “The economic situation and outlook for 2018”, was prepared with input from the following experts: Alejandra Acevedo, Claudio Aravena, Claudia de Camino, Pablo Carvallo, Ivonne González, Michael Hanni, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Esteban Pérez Caldentey, Ramón Pineda, José Antonio Sánchez, Cecilia Vera and Jürgen Weller. Part II, entitled, “Evolution of investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts, determinants and policy challenges”, was coordinated by Esteban Pérez Caldentey and Daniel Titelman and prepared with the collaboration of Claudio Aravena, Cristóbal Budnevich, Luis Díaz, Ivonne González and Luis Méndez. It included inputs prepared by the consultants Hildegart Ahumada, Daniel Aromí, Carolina Durana, Juan Carlos Moreno Brid, Camila Pérez and Leonardo Villar. Nicole Favreau Negront, Salvador Figuereo, Goon Jang, Isabel Salat and Joaquin Sánchez provided research assistance. The country notes were prepared by the following experts: Olga Lucía Acosta, Maharouf Adedayo, Dillon Alleyne, Anahí Amar, Martín Brun, Claudia de Camino, Martín Cherkasky, Marcos Chiliatto, Tomás Concha, Cameron Daneshvar, Randolph Gilbert, Sonia Gontero, Enrique González, Michael Hendrickson, Álvaro Lalanne, Jesús López, Ricardo Mayer, Sheldon McLean, Rodolfo Minzer, Carlos Mussi, Ramón Padilla, Machel Pantin, Esteban Pérez Caldentey, Ramón Pineda, Juan Carlos Ramírez, Juan Carlos Rivas, Indira Romero, José Antonio Sánchez, Jesús Santamaría, Nyasha Skerrette, Hidenobu Tokuda, Juan Guillermo Valderrama and Francisco Villarreal. Michael Hanni and Albert Klein reviewed the country notes for the Caribbean. Georgina Cipoletta assisted in the revision of the country notes for Latin America. Sonia Albornoz prepared the statistical annex. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121997-5 (print) ISBN: 978-92-1-058635-1 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-1-358090-5 (ePub) Sales No.: E.18.II.G.4 LC/PUB.2018/17-P Explanatory notes Distribución: G - Three dots (...) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. Copyright © United Nations, 2018 - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. All rights reserved - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. Printed at United Nations, Santiago - A slash (/) between years (e.g. 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. S.18-00836 - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total because of rounding. This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2018 (LC/PUB.2018/17-P), Santiago, 2018. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. CONTENTS Presentation.............................................................................................................................................................. 13 Executive summary.................................................................................................................................................. 15 Part I The economic situation and outlook for 2018 ..................................................................................................... 23 Chapter I Regional overview ................................................................................................................................................... 25 A. The international context ................................................................................................................................ 27 1. The world economy has maintained its dynamism in 2018, driven by the United States and emerging economies ......................................................................................................................... 27 2. The volume of world trade grew more quickly in 2017 but has begun to show signs of moderating and is subject to downside risks ...................................................................................... 29 3. Commodity prices will rise again in 2018 ............................................................................................... 32 4. The financial markets began the year with a rise in volatility, a drop in flows to emerging markets, currency depreciations against the dollar and a substantial fall in share prices.................................................................................................................................... 34 5. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the policy interest rate twice more in the second half of the year and three times more in 2019 ........................................................................................ 36 6. Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 37 B. The evolution of global liquidity ..................................................................................................................... 38 1. In 2017, global liquidity growth picked up thanks to a strong international bond market and an upturn in cross-border lending ..................................................................................................... 38 2. Liquidity inflows into emerging economies recorded one of the strongest increases since the start of the 2000s ..................................................................................................................... 39 3. Global liquidity trends have contributed to higher borrowing across all institutional sectors ............... 41 4. Stronger momentum in global liquidity in 2017 driven by expectations of more robust returns ........... 41 5. Global liquidity is expected to decrease in 2018, especially in emerging economies ........................... 43 C. The external sector ......................................................................................................................................... 44 1. The balance-of-payments current account deficit is expected to widen in 2018 owing to a larger services account deficit, stronger repatriation of foreign investment income and higher interest payments for external debt ...................................................................................... 44 2. Another goods surplus is expected in 2018, although it is projected to be smaller than in 2017 owing to stronger growth in imports than in exports ........................................................ 45 3. The income deficit is expected to grow in 2018 ..................................................................................... 51 4. In 2018 the services deficit is expected to increase, while the current transfers surplus is projected to widen thanks to robust remittance inflows into the region ............................................ 51 5. In line with the trend seen in all emerging markets, financial inflows into the region declined in the first four months of 2018 and improved thereafter ........................................................ 52 6. The downtrend in the region’s sovereign risk since 2016 was reversed as of February 2018 .............. 55 7. Debt issues by the countries of the region in international markets declined by 7% in the first half of the year compared with the year-earlier period ........................................................ 56 D. Domestic performance .................................................................................................................................... 57 1. Latin America and the Caribbean continue a slow pace of growth
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