Cause Or Consequence? the Alternative for Germany and Attitudes Toward Migration Policy
Cause or Consequence? The Alternative for Germany and Attitudes toward Migration Policy Hannah M. Alarian Political Science, University of Florida Abstract: Does a far-right electoral victory change mainstream support for migration policy? Although we know how migration can shape support for the far-right, we know little about the inverse. This article addresses this ques- tion, exploring whether an Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate’s election changes non-far-right voter attitudes toward migration policies. In combining the German Longitudinal Election Study Short-Term Campaign panel with fed- eral electoral returns, I find the AfD’s 2017 success significantly altered migra- tion attitudes. Specifically, policy support for immigration and asylum declined precipitously where an AfD candidate won the plurality of first votes. Yet these voters were also more likely to support multicultural policies for current immi- grants. Successful AfD candidates therefore appear to enable both an endorse- ment of xenophobic rhetoric and a rejection of cultural assimilation. Keywords: elections, far-right populism, Germany, migration, public opinion Few policies are as connected to the rise of the far right as migration. Even in Germany where nationalistic politics are highly stigmatized, the far-right, Alternative for Germany (AfD) has proven successful in linking itself with nativist migration policies. This change in focus for the AfD from Euroscepti- cism to nationalism came at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis, a message that resonated with traditional mainstream and, perhaps surprisingly, immigrant voters.1 For many of these voters, the 2017 election provided a direct referen- dum on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stance on refugee resettlement,2 espe- cially within eastern districts where demonstrations against immigrants and asylum seekers continued to erupt.3 Thus, by stoking mass anxiety over migra- tion and leaving its Eurosceptic roots behind, the AfD sought a new strategy to secure its place on the national stage in the 2017 Bundestag election.
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