Updated Sept. 4, 2018 2018 Midterm Forecast Roundup: Week of Sept. 3 Following a steady stream of bad news for President Donald Trump, still pull off an upset in the chamber. including the conviction of his former campaign manager and a guilty In late August, the Justice Department indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter plea by his personal lawyer, the president’s approval rating has (R-Calif.) for campaign finance violations. Hunter has decided to remain reached its lowest point since April. in his seat and run for reelection, creating an additional opportunity for In a similar fashion, the generic ballot has improved for Democrats, Democrats in a seat previously rated as safe for the GOP. pushing the party’s chances of taking the House above 80 percent for Following the death of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Gov. Doug Ducey (R) the first time in forecaster Nate Silver’s election model. announced that he would appoint former Sen. Jon Kyl (R) to fill the Overall, the consensus among the forecasters is that Democrats have seat. Because McCain’s death occurred so late in the year, Arizona will a definitive but not overwhelming lead in the House. In the Senate, not hold a special election and Kyl will likely serve until the end of the Republicans are forecast to retain their majority, but Democrats could term in 2020.

Generic congressional ballot polling 30-DAY MOVING AVERAGE Sept. 4 46% 45%

Democrats are leading by 10 points. 40%

36% 35%

30%

Dec. Feb. April June Aug.

Key House Races to Watch

E P L UR UM IB N U U S The table below shows predictions for individual House races rated as competitive by four top political forecasters: The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and FiveThirtyEight. To flip the House, Democrats need to win at least 25 of the 70 seats listed below. The right-most column indicates if at least one forecaster has recently changed a rating.

Predictions for competitive House races by top forecasters Democratic odds improved Republican odds improved

RECENT RECENT DISTRICT INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales 538 CHANGES DISTRICT INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales 538 CHANGES

AR-02 French Hill (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R 77% R NC-02 George Holding (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R 89% R

NC-09 OPEN Toss-up Lean D Tilt R 55% D AZ-01 Tom O'Halleran (D) Likely D Likely D Lean D 97% D NC-13 Ted Budd (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R 62% R AZ-02 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D 93% D

NE-02 Don Bacon (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R 61% D CA-10 Je Denham (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 75% D

CA-21 David Valadao (R) Likely R Likely R Likely R 63% R NH-01 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D 79% D CA-25 Steve Knight (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 76% D NJ-02 OPEN Likely D Likely D Likely D 90% D CA-39 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 50% R NJ-03 Tom MacArthur (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 55% R CA-45 Mimi Walters (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R 62% D NJ-07 Leonard Lance (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 65% D CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 70% D NJ-11 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D 76% D CA-49 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D 83% D CA-50 Duncan Hunter (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R 87% R NM-02 OPEN Lean R Lean R Lean R 72% R

CO-06 Mike Co man (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 66% D NV-03 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D 72% D

FL-15 OPEN Lean R Likely R Safe R 70% R NY-11 Dan Donovan (R) Likely R Lean R Likely R 73% R FL-16 Vern Buchanan (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R 85% R NY-19 John J. Faso (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 52% D FL-18 Brian Mast (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R 91% R NY-22 Claudia Tenney (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 73% D FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (R) Lean R Toss-up Tilt R 58% R

FL-27 OPEN Lean D Lean D Lean D 98% D OH-01 Steve Chabot (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R 59% D

OH-12 Troy Balderson (R) Lean R Lean R Tilt R 51% R GA-06 Karen Handel (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R 95% R

IA-01 Rod Blum (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tossup 75% D Note: Because of a court ruling, Pennsylvania’s districts are being redrawn. The district numbers and forecasts below reflect the new map. IA-03 David Young (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 68% D PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) Lean R Toss-up Tilt R 75% R

IL-06 Peter Roskam (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 72% R PA-07 VACANT Lean D Lean D Tilt D 98% D

IL-12 Mike Bost (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 60% R PA-16 Mike Kelly (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R 97% R

IL-13 Rodney Davis (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R 68% R PA-17 Keith Rothfus (R) Lean D Lean D Lean D 98% D IL-14 Randy Hultgren (R) Lean R Lean R Safe R 64% R SC-01 OPEN Lean R Likely R Safe R 83% R KS-02 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 56% R

KS-03 Kevin Yoder (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 71% R TX-07 John Culberson (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 53% D TX-23 Will Hurd (R) Lean R Toss-up Tilt R 74% D KY-06 Andy Barr (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 50% D TX-32 Pete Sessions (R) Toss-up Lean R Toss-up 87% R

ME-02 Bruce Poliquin (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R 56% R UT-04 Mia Love (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R 79% R

MI-08 Mike Bishop (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 56% R VA-02 Scott Taylor (R) Lean R Toss-up Lean R 93% R MI-11 OPEN Toss-up Lean D Tossup 70% D VA-05 OPEN Lean R Lean R Likely R 54% D

MN-01 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 50% D VA-07 Dave Brat (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 67% R

MN-02 Jason Lewis (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 78% D VA-10 Barbara Comstock (R) Lean D Lean D Tilt D 78% D

MN-03 Erik Paulsen (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R 65% D WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R 83% R MN-07 Collin Peterson (D) Likely D Likely D Lean D 88% D WA-05 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) Lean R Toss-up Lean R 74% R MN-08 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 59% R WA-08 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up 52% D

MT-AL Greg Gianforte (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R 81% R WI-01 OPEN Lean R Lean R Lean R 71% R

WV-03 OPEN Lean R Toss-up Lean R 93% R

Key Senate Races to Watch The table below shows predictions for individual Senate races rated as competitive by three top political forecasters: The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. To flip the Senate, Democrats need to win at least 14 of the 18 seats listed below. The right-most column indicates if at least one forecaster has recently changed a rating.

Predictions for competitive Senate races by top forecasters Democratic odds improved Republican odds improved

RECENT RECENT STATE INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales CHANGES STATE INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales CHANGES

Ariz. OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up N.D. Heidi Heitkamp (D) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R

Fla. Bill Nelson (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up N.J. Bob Menendez (D) Likely D Likely D Safe D

Ind. Joe Donnelly (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Nev. Dean Heller (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up

Mich. Debbie Stabenow (D) Likely D Likely D Safe D Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) Lean D Likely D Likely D

Miss. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Likely R Likely R Safe R Pa. Bob Casey (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D

Minn. Tina Smith (D) Lean D Likely D Likely D Tenn. OPEN Toss-up Lean R Lean R

Mo. Claire McCaskill (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Texas Ted Cruz (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R

Mont. Jon Tester (D) Likely D Lean D Tilt D Wis. Tammy Baldwin (D) Likely D Likely D Lean D

Neb. Deb Fischer (R) Likely R Safe R Safe R W.Va. Joe Manchin (D) Toss-up Lean D Tilt D

Sources: The Cook Political Report; Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics; Inside By Tucker Doherty, POLITICO Pro DataPoint Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales; FiveThirtyEight, “Are Democrats or Republicans winning the race for Congress?”