2020 Pre-Election Outlook

Contact Lindsay Austin 202.274.2887 [email protected]

Contents

2020 Election Outlook 3

White House 4

Senate 7

House of Representatives 11

Gubernatorial 14

Troutman Pepper Strategies 2

2020 Election Outlook

The 2020 election may be one of the most memorable and consequential elections in American political history. Not only are voters experiencing a hyperpartisan political environment, but they also face the obstacle of voting during a global pandemic. Tens of millions of Americans will vote by mail — an unprecedented challenge for state election agencies and an under-resourced U.S. Postal Service. Millions more will brave the pandemic and physically vote at a polling station, potentially leading to a spike in COVID-19 cases just as the winter months begin. Predictably, voters are divided along party lines over what issues they consider most important as they decide who to vote for in November. A recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center found that the top three issues for Republican voters in the 2020 election are the economy, violent crime, and immigration. Conversely, the top three issues for Democrat voters are health care, the coronavirus pandemic, and race and ethnic inequality. The coronavirus pandemic has undoubtedly shaped President Trump’s regulatory agenda over the last several months, as well as the actions by Congress. Likewise, the election results will influence what regulatory and legislative items can be accomplished in the final weeks of 2020 and early 2021. If a party change occurs in either the White House or the Senate, it will significantly affect what is accomplished in the lame duck session, as Democrats may hold out for more leverage in the 117th Congress. The following information provides a summary of the 2020 elections for president, Senate, House of Representatives, and governors. Troutman Pepper Strategies (TPS) will update the site with election results shortly after November 3. Additionally, TPS will release a policy report in the weeks following the election, detailing what issues will be top of mind for lawmakers and the administration in the wake of the election heading into 2021 and the 117th Congress.

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White House

During his initial campaign for president and throughout his first term, President Trump touted the strength of the American economy — the top issue for Republican voters. Although the pandemic has hobbled the economy over the last several months, Americans still largely give Trump higher ratings on the economy over his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden. The president, however, has been unable to navigate the campaign messaging away from one of his weakest polling issues, his response to the pandemic. President Trump and his campaign were briefly sidelined in early October after the president and several senior staff contracted COVID-19. The president stayed at Walter Reed Hospital the first weekend of October and canceled or postponed all campaign events for about a week. Two people crucial to President Trump’s reelection — Campaign Manager Bill Stepien and Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel — also contracted COVID-19 during that time, along with several other White House staff members. Joe Biden, on the other hand, has attempted to appeal to moderates across the Midwest, leveraging his extensive political experience, while also motivating the progressive base to turn out and vote. Throughout, he has campaigned strongly on the president’s poor response to the pandemic and instinctual governing style. Additionally, there has been a lot of speculation about whether the results of the Presidential election will be known on election night. Given the high volume of expected mail-in ballots, some states are allowing ballots to be counted days after November 3. In the swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, ballots can be counted as late as November 6 if postmarked by election day. In the tossup state of , ballots can be counted as late as November 12 if they are postmarked by election day. In Wisconsin, also a swing state, election officials cannot begin to even process absentee ballots until after the polls open on election day which may delay results. This leaves open the possibility that more than one key state may not have their election results known on election night, potentially resulting in an unknown Presidential outcome days after November 3. As of October 27, national polling has Joe Biden leading President Trump by about 8 points according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential polling average. If there’s one thing the country learned from the 2016 election, however, it is that polls cannot always be trusted to accurately predict which candidate will win the election and to not yet count out of the race. An incumbent president has not lost a campaign for a second term since President George H. W. Bush lost the 1992 presidential election to then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. Prior to that, President Jimmy Carter lost his bid for reelection in 1980 to former California Governor Ronald Reagan. The map directly below indicates the results of each state from the 2016 presidential election between and Donald Trump. The subsequent map shows for which candidate each state is likely to vote based on the most recent polling for the 2020 election. Below are the top five issues that President Trump and Joe Biden are expected to focus on in 2021, depending on who wins the election. TPS will issue a more in-depth policy outlook later in November that better reflects the election results.

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Administration Top Five Priorities

Donald Trump Joe Biden

ECONOMY & JOB RECOVERY HEALTH CARE President Trump would continue to make A President Biden would work to protect and economic and job recovery priorities in his expand the (ACA), including pandemic response efforts. He would support improving access and affordability. Biden’s health additional stimulus if able to get it through a care agenda would likely work in tandem with his divided Congress. Otherwise, the president may COVID-19 response plan, but a separate larger issue executive orders aiding certain industries, health care bill should be expected. Biden has as well as additional deregulatory actions. pledged to build on the foundation of the ACA Actions by Trump may go further if he wins and create a public option. Biden would also reelection and must govern with a Democratic focus on issues, such as eliminating surprise Senate, which is an unlikely scenario. billing and lowering prescription drug costs.

TRANSPORTATION & INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION & INFRASTRUCTURE A broad transportation and infrastructure (T&I) package was highly probable when Republicans Biden has proposed a sweeping infrastructure had unified control of government prior to the agenda as part of his broader economic recovery 2018 midterm elections. If Trump wins reelection plan titled, “Build Back Better,” and may and Republicans maintain their majority in the incorporate clean energy proposals throughout. Senate, Trump and the GOP may have more Earlier this year, Biden released an infrastructure motivation to negotiate with House Democrats on plan that included investing in more traditional a T&I deal as part of a broader economic projects (roads, bridges, etc.), as well as grid recovery agenda. modernization and increased broadband access.

ENERGY ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT A mainstay of President Trump’s energy agenda Any energy policy coming out of the Biden has been to increase America’s energy administration will focus on clean and independence, mostly through coal, oil, and sustainable/renewable energy. These policies will natural gas. In a second term, Trump will be broadly supported by the Democratic party continue using deregulatory methods to boost and may include items, such as repealing domestic energy production, while at the same deductions and credits for the fossil fuel industry, time, using tariffs and other trade mechanisms to while extending other clean energy credits like stymie the growth of other energy sources, such wind and solar. Democrats are unlikely to reach as wind and solar. for a carbon tax in the first few years of control. Expect to see progressive priorities spread across several large initiatives, rather than one energy bill.

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CHINA & TRADE SOCIAL ISSUES & JUSTICE President Trump focused considerably on trade REFORM issues during his first term. Trump and the A President Biden may be pressured into administration renegotiated and completed addressing social issues considering recent several trade agreements and used other trade national events. This may include a push by more mechanisms to impose tariffs on steel and progressive members of the Democratic party to aluminum from dozens of countries, as well as pass police reform legislation or other community billions of dollars of Chinese imports. President engagement programs. His agenda may also Trump’s hostile trade stance with China is include slowing or even reversing income unlikely to shift significantly in 2021 as the two inequality. sides implement the Phase 1 trade agreement and continue negotiations on the next phase. Looking forward, the administration is working on trade agreements with the U.K., European Union, Kenya, and other nations.

FOREIGN POLICY TAX President Trump is watching foreign policy on A Biden administration would likely work with several fronts heading into a second term. He Congress on increasing the corporate tax rate has taken a strong interest in Middle Eastern and rollback provision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs affairs (particularly with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Act of 2017. Additionally, Biden would also work Egypt) and negotiations with North Korea. Trump to revamp the tax code to help working- has worked to withdraw U.S. troops from abroad class/lower-income families, while raising the (e.g., Germany and most recently in Somalia) rates on wealthier Americans. except in areas where the military can combat the Islamic State and monitor Iran.

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Senate

Republicans have held the Senate majority since January 2015 as a result of the 2014 midterm elections. However, for the 2020 election, control of the Senate may depend on which candidate wins the presidential election as voters increasingly practice straight-party voting.

Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats compared to 47 Democrats (including two Independents). Currently, a total of 35 Senate seats are up for election on November 3, with Republicans holding 23 of those seats, and Democrats holding 12. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the majority outright. If Democrats win a net of three seats, resulting in a 50-50 split, the party of the vice president would cast the majority and tie-breaking vote.

Republicans are defending two seats in states (Colorado and Maine) won by Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. Similarly, Democrats are defending two seats in states (Michigan and Alabama) won by President Trump in 2016.

The Significance of Senate Numbers

Democrats may have the ability to move an unencumbered agenda come January 2021 should Joe Biden defeat President Trump, and Democrats and Republicans split control of the Senate 50-50. The vice president would act as the tie-breaking vote in the Senate under that scenario. Without a Senate majority, the hopes of a moving a Democratic agenda through Congress will largely go on hold. Additionally, the rules of the upper chamber stand in the way of a simple majority running roughshod.

The one dynamic that could change the entire course of the next two years and a Democratic agenda is if moderate Democratic senators use their influence to change procedure in the Senate. Should Democrats win control of the upper chamber, it could likely be with a 50-vote or 51-vote majority. Democrats could look at reform of the filibuster rules to ease the burden of their thin majority — a rule change that will require support from at least 50 senators. Regardless of Senator Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) and Biden’s openness to a change to the filibuster, several Democratic senators will have to move positions. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are currently against changing the rules. Democratic leadership will have to move some of the senators’ position should they want to remove the 60-vote threshold (needed to prevent a filibuster), but they may also seek openness to simply reform and lower a cloture vote to 55 votes or alter the amendment process while lowering the cloture vote.

Should the Democrats not seek to reform the filibuster in 2021, they will have two options to bypass it using a process called budget reconciliation. This allows the Senate to bypass the filibuster when considering measures related to direct budgetary change, among other restrictions. Democrats will have the ability to move two reconciliation bills in 2021 — one for fiscal year 2021 and one for fiscal year 2022, which starts in October. This is the same process that Republicans used to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, and unsuccessfully used to repeal and replace the ACA before that.

Below is a brief summary of the 12 most competitive Senate races in 2020:

Alabama – Senator Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville Incumbent Senator Doug Jones is the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection in 2020. Jones, who won the special election in Alabama in 2017 against Roy Moore, now faces Tommy Tuberville, the Trump-backed former Auburn football coach. Tuberville defeated former Attorney General Jeff Sessions in a July runoff election. In 2016, President Trump won Alabama by 28

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points. Senator Jones is rumored to be a frontrunner for attorney general, should Biden win the election.

Arizona – Senator Martha McSally vs. Mark Kelly Arizona Governor Doug Ducey appointed Rep. Martha McSally to the Senate seat previously held by Senator John McCain in December 2018. McSally is a former Air Force pilot, served two terms in the House of Representatives, and failed in her bid for Arizona’s other Senate seat in the 2018 midterm elections to Senator Kyrsten Sinema. McSally is up against Mark Kelly, a Navy veteran, former astronaut, and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ). President Trump won Arizona by 4 points in 2016. Kelly has shown a steady lead in polling into the double digits and is the current favorite. However, the close presidential race in Arizona may reflect a closer Senate race than some might expect.

Colorado – Senator Cory Gardner vs. John Hickenlooper Colorado is a crucial state for Democrats to flip to win a majority in the Senate. Senator Cory Gardner is defending a Senate seat in a state won by Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election by 5 points. Gardner defeated his opponent, Senator Mark Udall, in 2014 by 4 points. His opponent is former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper who previously served as the Mayor of Denver and ran for president in 2020. Hickenlooper’s campaign has attempted to tie Gardner to Trump in a state that is increasingly trending blue. Hickenlooper has maintained a steady lead in polling for months in the race.

Georgia – Senator David Perdue vs. Jon Ossoff vs. Shane Hazel Incumbent Senator David Perdue, the former CEO of Dollar General and the Reebok Brand, is seeking a second term against Jon Ossoff. Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker, lost a special election bid in 2017 to fill the seat of Rep. Tom Price after his appointment as secretary of Health and Human Services. While Perdue and Ossoff are certainly the favorites, Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel could force the election into a runoff on January 5, 2021. President Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5 points.

Georgia (Special Election) – Senator Kelly Loeffler vs. Rep. Doug Collins vs. Raphael Warnock The Georgia Senate special election race also will likely result in a runoff on January 5, 2021. Appointed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler filled the seat of retiring Senator Johnny Isakson in December 2019 and took office in January 2020. Loeffler now faces fellow Georgia Republican Rep. Doug Collins, the former ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, which oversaw much of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. Both Collins and Loeffler are facing off against Democratic Candidate Raphael Warnock who is a pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. President Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5 points.

Iowa – Senator Joni Ernst vs. Theresa Greenfield Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst is seeking a second term in the swing state of Iowa. Iowans elected President Trump in 2016 by nearly 10 points, but also voted for President by nearly 6 points in the 2012 election and nearly 10 points in 2008 election. Ernst is facing Theresa Greenfield, a former urban planner and real estate firm executive who previously ran for Iowa’s Third Congressional District. Currently polling at a dead heat, the Iowa race will play a key role in determining which party has the majority in the Senate.

Kansas – Rep. Roger Marshall vs. Barbara Bollier The race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Pat Roberts, the current chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, is not exactly considered competitive. A Democrat has not won a Senate

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race in Kansas since 1932, and President Trump won the state in 2016 by 21 points. However, it is of interest because current Rep. Roger Marshall, a former OB/GYN, or State Senator Barbara Bollier, an anesthesiologist, will replace one of the Senate’s most senior Republican members.

Maine – Senator Susan Collins vs. Sara Gideon Incumbent Senator Susan Collins is seeking her fifth term in what is the most competitive race of her career. Collins is facing Sara Gideon, the current speaker of the Maine House of Representatives. Although Collins is considered a moderate Republican, Gideon has attacked her conservative voting record for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the 2017 Republican tax cut package. Hillary Clinton won Maine in 2016 by about 3 points. Many pundits believe that Gideon’s challenge, combined with the negative polling for Trump in Maine, could be the right mix to oust Collins and give Democrats all the New England Senate seats.

Michigan – Senator Gary Peters vs. John James In 2016, President Trump won Michigan by the narrowest margin of any state — a sheer 0.2 points. Despite Trump’s 2016 victory, most polls show incumbent Senator Gary Peters with a solid lead over his opponent, John James. James is an Army veteran and recently lost his bid by 6.5 points in 2018 to unseat incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow. Aside from the Alabama race, the Michigan race has emerged as the Republicans best chance to flip a Democrat-held seat for this election cycle.

Montana – Senator Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock Incumbent Senator Steve Daines is seeking a second term but is in a close race against current Montana Governor Steve Bullock. In the 2016 election, Bullock won his bid for a second term as governor by 3.8 points, while President Trump won Montana by 20 points. Daines was also first elected by a wide margin — 18 points — in 2014. While Bullock is well liked, it will be a difficult challenge to thread the needle on what would be a split-ticket for most voters.

North Carolina – Senator vs. Cal Cunningham The North Carolina Senate race may be a true toss-up and is widely seen as a critical pickup for Democrats if they win the Senate majority. Most state polls currently have challenger and Army veteran Cal Cunningham ahead of incumbent Senator Thom Tillis by a few points. Cunningham has led in the polls consistently through the campaign, however an expected tightening, combined with the leaking of romantic texts by Cunningham, have put his lead in jeopardy. In his first election, Senator Tillis won his seat against incumbent Senator by only 2 points. Additionally, President Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by 4 points.

South Carolina – Senator Lindsey Graham vs. Jaime Harrison Incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is seeking his fourth term in office against Jaime Harrison. Harrison served as the chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party from 2013 to 2017 and is an associate chair of the Democratic National Committee. Harrison shocked many with his haul of $57 million in the third quarter — a record setting amount for a Senate race. However, he will unlikely be able to even spend all his money in a race that will be much more about overcoming a strong tradition of voting Republican statewide. President Trump won South Carolina by 14 points in the 2016 election, and Graham won his last reelection bid in 2014 by 15 points.

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The map immediately below indicates which states have Senate races in 2020, and if either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump won that state in the 2016 election. The subsequent map shows for which party the states are likely to vote based on the most resent polling.

2020 Senate Races (Clinton/Trump 2016 results)

2020 Senate Forecast

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House of Representatives

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election on November 3. Democrats won control of the House as a result of the 2018 midterm elections, gaining a net of 40 seats compared to their numbers in the previous Congress. Prior to 2018, Republicans held the majority in the House since early 2011 as a result of the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans gained 63 House seats.

Democrats are widely expected to retain the majority and may gain several seats based on the number of districts currently rated as toss-ups and the high volume of Republican-held seats without an incumbent running. There are 32 Republicans who are either not seeking reelection, lost their primary election, or are running for other office compared to just 12 Democrats. Several of these Republican-held open seats are considered either toss-ups or are favored to go to Democrats.

In early 2019, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a list of 55 House Democrats that they plan to target in the 2020 election. The target list includes all 31 Democrats in districts that President Trump won in 2016, as well as 20 districts that Hillary Clinton won, which had previously been represented by Republican members. Similarly, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a list of over 40 Democratic seats it intends to aggressively defend, nearly all of which are freshmen members who won election in 2018.

Top Committees to Watch in the 117th Congress

Several key House committees will have leadership changes at the start of the 117th Congress as a result of retirements. For House Democrats (assuming they keep the House majority), the powerful chairmanship of the House Appropriations Committee is up for grabs. Current Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-NY) is retiring and will likely be replaced by either Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D- OH), or Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL). Additionally, Chairman Eliot Engel (D-NY) of the House Foreign Affairs Committee lost his primary in June. He will likely be replaced by either Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), or Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX). For House Republicans, ranking member of the powerful House Energy & Commerce Committee Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) is retiring and could be replaced by either Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) or Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX), both of whom currently hold the top posts for the minority on subcommittees. Other important leadership changes for House Republicans include the House Armed Services Committee and the House Veterans’ Affair Committee.

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Not Seeking Reelection

AL-02 – Martha Roby IL-15 – John Shimkus (R) (R) NY-02 – Peter King (R) TX-22 – Pete Olson (R) CA-53 – Susan Davis IN-01 – Pete Visclosky NY-15 – José Serrano (D) TX-23 – Will Hurd (R) (D) (D) IN-05 – Susan Brooks TX-24 – Kenny Marchant FL-03 – Ted Yoho (R) (R) NY-17 – Nita Lowey (D) (R) FL-19 – Francis Rooney LA-05 – Ralph Abraham OR-02 – Greg Walden (R) WI-05 – Jim Sensenbrenner (R) (R) (R) GA-07 – Rob Woodall (R) MI-03 – Justin Amash (L) TN-01 – Phil Roe (R) GA-14 – Tom Graves MI-10 – Paul Mitchell (R) TX-11 – Michael Conaway (R) (R) HI-02 – Tulsi Gabbard NC-02 – George Holding TX-13 – Mac Thornberry (D) (R) (R) IA-02 – Dave Loebsack NC-06 – Mark Walker (R) TX-17 – Bill Flores (R) (D)

Defeated in Primary

CO-03 – Scott Tipton (R) IA-04 – Steve King (R) KS-02 – Steve Watkins (R) NY-16 – Eliot Engel (D) FL-15 – Ross Spano (R) IL-03 – Dan Lipinski (D) MO-01 – Lacy Clay (D) VA-05 – Denver Riggleman (R)

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Seeking other office

AL-01 – Bradley Byrne (R), lost KS-01 – Roger Marshall (R), won NM-03 – Ben Ray Luján (D), won Senate primary Senate primary Senate primary CA-08 – Paul Cook (R), elected in MA-04 – Joe Kennedy (D), lost UT-01 – Rob Bishop (R), lost March to San Bernardino County Senate primary primary for lieutenant governor Board of Supervisors

GA-09 – Doug Collins (R), seeking MT-AL – Greg Gianforte (R), won WA-10 – Denny Heck (D), running Senate seat in special election governor primary for lieutenant governor

Resignations, Deaths, and Special Elections

CA-25 – Katie Hill (D) resigned NC-03 – Walter Jones (R) died Feb. PA-12 – Tom Marino (R) resigned Nov. 3, 2019; Mike Garcia (R) 10, 2019; (R) elected Jan. 23, 2019; Fred Keller (R) elected May 12, 2020 Sept. 10, 2019 elected May 21, 2019 CA-50 – Duncan Hunter (R) NC-09 – (R) elected TX-04 – John Ratcliffe (R) resigned resigned Jan. 13, 2020; no special Sept. 10, 2019 after seat wasn’t May 22, 2020; no special election election filled in 2018 election scheduled

GA-05 – John Lewis (D) died July NC-11 – (R) WI-07 – Sean Duffy (R) resigned 17, 2020; special election resigned March 30, 2020; no Sept. 23, 2019; Tom Tiffany (R) scheduled Sept. 29, 2020 special election scheduled elected May 12, 2020 MD-07 – Elijah Cummings (D) died NY-27 – Chris Collins (R) resigned Oct. 17, 2019; Kweisi Mfume (D) Sept. 30, 2019; Chris Jacobs (R) elected April 28, 2020 elected June 23, 2020

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Gubernatorial

Republican governors currently reside in 26 of the governors’ mansions across the country, compared to 24 for Democrats. In 2020, there are 11 gubernatorial races up for election. Republicans currently hold seven of those governorships and Democrats hold four. Each party is defending one open seat — Montana for the Democrats and Utah for the Republicans. Montana, currently rated as a toss-up, may be the only race in this election cycle that changes party. In 2018, 36 governorships were up for election. Democrats picked up seven of those states previously held by Republicans, while Republicans picked up one governorship previously held by an Independent (Alaska). Although the governors races may receive less attention than the other federal elections, they are nonetheless important. The governor elections, along with the state legislature elections, will have significant importance and impact when states reapportion congressional and state legislative districts in 2021 based on 2020 U.S. Census results.

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