US Policy Scan 2020 Dentons Policy Scan 2020 • 1 CONTENTS Happy New Year. The Dentons Public Policy Team is pleased to release its annual Policy Scan. This is our comprehensive overview of the policy and political landscape in 2020. We look to highlight movements across the spectrum of policy areas in the coming year. With our team’s unmatched reach, we not only look at issues in our nation’s capital but in every state capital in the union as well. We review the US Supreme Court docket and briefly profile the major cases of the term, both those still to be argued and those already argued with decisions pending. We look at trends across the globe and their impact on US policy. Finally, we delve into Election 2020 at the presidential, congressional, gubernatorial and state AG levels. We also tackle impeachment. As of the publication of this document, the ground rules for, and the timing of, the impeachment trial of Donald J. Trump, including the question of whether any witnesses will be called, have yet to be determined. These impeachment ground rules will be established against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile and uncertain global landscape, and the resulting injection of national security and foreign policy issues to the forefront of the general election debate. However these procedural issues are finally resolved, we believe that the president will eventually prevail at the trial as there simply are not at least 20 GOP Senators who will vote for his removal. Some might call this cynical thinking on our part, but we prefer to see it as clear-eyed realism without illusion. We hope that Policy Scan gives you the foundation to tackle obstacles and succeed in what is sure to be a chaotic and unprecedented year ahead. January February March Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 01 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 240825 26 27 28 03 06 29 29 30 31 YEAR IN REVIEW 2020 WASHINGTON CALENDAR IMPEACHMENT April May June Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 01 02 01 02 03 04 05 06 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 10 1726 27 28 29 30 24/31 251926 27 28 29 30 28 29 30 POLICY OUTLOOK SUPREME COURT 50 STATE OUTLOOK July August September Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 01 02 03 04 01 01 02 03 04 05 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 31 3426 27 28 29 30 31 23/30 2424/31 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30 A VIEW FROM THE WATER’S EDGE CAMPAIGN 2020 October November December Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa 2 • Dentons Policy Scan 2020 01 02 03 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 03 04 05 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30 27 28 29 30 31 Senate scheduled to be House scheduled to be House and Senate scheduled in session in session to be in session Democratic Caucus Republican Caucus Democrat Caucus and Primary VP Debate Republican Caucus and Primary Democratic Primary Republican Primary Presidential Debate Democratic Convention Republican Convention Republican and Democrat Election day Caucus and Primary Year in review The 116th Congress convened in January 2019 with the Democratic Party holding the majority in the House of Representatives after eight years of Republican control. With the loss of a Republican majority in the House, President Trump struggled to get many key pieces of legislation passed notwithstanding continued Republican control of the Senate. The past year was marked by debate over the impeachment of President Trump, labor and environmental provisions in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement funding for the border wall between the US and Mexico which slowed the passage of appropriations bills and the National Defense Authorization Act. Legislative action was stalled throughout much of the year. However, the shared need of the President and Congressional Republicans and Democrats to be able to point to some legislative achievements before heading into the 2020 elections led to Congress beginning to make significant progress in some key policy areas in December. As a result, the House and Senate added several days to their respective calendars and stayed in session for legislative business for almost a week longer than originally planned. ADMINISTRATIVE ACTIONS Federal Reserve interest rate cuts Responding to the uncertainty created by the Trump trade war with China and a perceived slowdown in the rate of global economic growth, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in 2019 for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Beginning in August, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) made a quarter percentage point cut to the target federal funds rate, lowering the target range to between 2.00 and 2.25 percent. After two additional quarter point cuts in September and October, the current goal is to keep interest rates between 1.50 percent and 1.75 percent. After its December meeting, the FOMC announced that it would maintain its current target rate as it continues to sustain the expansion of economic activity, support labor market strength, and maintain an inflation rate near the Committee’s 2 percent goal. Though the Fed has typically been independent of executive branch involvement, President Trump criticized Chairman Jerome Powell’s handling of US monetary policy throughout 2019, repeatedly pushing the level of economic growth he has promised without significant Powell to cut rates much more aggressively to 0% or below. He has additional cuts to the target federal funds rate, the tensions between called Powell a “terrible communicator” in the past and also falsely the President and Chairman Powell are expected to continue and asserted that he has the power to remove Chairman Powell from Who Gotcould What? even Fed heighten Spending asSnapshot the election approaches. his position, but after a November meeting with the Chairman, he tweeted that the meeting was “very good & cordial.” Nonetheless, as US-China trade war H.R. 1865 and H.R. 1158 many observers believe it is unlikely that the President can achieve The trade war between the US and China persisted throughout 2019, with multiple failed negotiation attempts resulting in additional tariffs and increased tariff rates. List 4A tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese Who Gotgoods What? Fed went Spending into Snapshot effect on September 1, 2019, and List 4B tariffs on H.R. 1865FEDERAL and H.R. 1158 SPENDING SNAPSHOT: WHO GOT WHAT? H.R. 1865 AND H.R. 1158 71.5 72.8 90.5 94.9 23.3 71.5 23.5 72.8 90.5 94.9 23.3 23.5 11.4 15.2 35.7 38.6 11.4 15.2 35.7 USDA 38.6 USDA 49.4 49.4 50.5 50.5 CoCmmommerce erce InIn billionsbillions of dollarsof dollars 49.1 44.2 49.1 FY19 enacted Education 44.2 FY19 enacted Education Sources: Both FY19 and FY20 numbers were calculated by the House Appropriations Committee Energy Sources: Both FY19 and FY20 numbers were calculated by the House Appropriations Committee 85.9 86.2 HHEnSergy FY20 compromise 30.9 85.9 54.2 DHS 32.6 54.7 86.2 13.0 13.5 HHS 86.5 91.9 FY20 compromise HUD 30.9 32.6 54.2 Interior DHS 13.0 54.7 12.1 13.5 12.4 86.5 91.9 DOJ HUD Labor Interior State & Int'l 12.1 12.8 13.1 12.4 Transportation DOJ Treasury Labor 7.0 VA 7.7 8.9 9.1 21.5 22.6 Corps of EnSgtianeteer s& Int'l 12.8 13.1 EPA Transportation NASA 0.7 Dentons Policy Scan 2020 • 0.8 TSrBeAasury 7.0 VA 7.7 8.9 9.1 21.5 Corps of Engineers 22.6 EPA NASA 0.7 3 0.8 SBA $160 billion in Chinese goods were scheduled to go into effect on CONGRESSIONAL ACTIONS December 15, 2019.