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May 22, 2020 Volume 4, No This issue brought to you by 2020 House Ratings Toss-Up (2R, 4D) GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) NY 11 (Rose, D) IA 3 (Axne, D) OK 5 (Horn, D) IL 13 (Davis, R) SC 1 (Cunningham, D) Tilt Democratic (10D, 1R) Tilt Republican (7R) MAY 22, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 10 CA 21 (Cox, D) IA 4 (King, R) CA 25 (Garcia, R)* MN 1 (Hagedorn, R) GA 6 (McBath, D) NJ 2 (Van Drew, R) 2020 House Overview: IA 1 (Finkenauer, D) PA 1 (Fitzpatrck, R) IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D) PA 10 (Perry, R) Democrats Could ME 2 (Golden, D) TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R) Expand Majority NM 2 (Torres Small, D) NY 22 (Brindisi, D)# GOP DEM By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin UT 4 (McAdams, D)# 116th Congress 201 233 VA 7 (Spanberger, D) Currently Solid 173 202 Last week, Republicans won California’s 25th District, giving them Competitive 28 31 their first takeover in the state in 20 years and their first special election flip since 2011. It was a legitimate victory that lowered their threshold Needed for majority 218 for a majority to 17 seats. But rather than a canary in a coal mine, the California result is more likely to be some other tortured metaphor that Lean Democratic (8D, 1R) Lean Republican (6R, 1L) means the special election was an outlier. CA 48 (Rouda, D) MI 3 (Open; Amash, L) A look at individual races across the country paint a different picture IL 14 (Underwood, D)# MO 2 (Wagner, R) of the battle for the House. President Donald Trump is struggling to KS 3 (Davids, D) NE 2 (Bacon, R) reach his 2016 marks in key districts, his re-election is in doubt and he’s NJ 3 (Kim, D)# NY 2 (Open; King, R) far from being in a strong enough position to boost House challengers NJ 7 (Malinowski, D) NY 24 (Katko, R) who trail Democratic incumbents in the polls and in fundraising. TX 7 (Fletcher, D) OH 1 (Chabot, R) While Republicans won in California, their biggest loss was in the TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R) TX 21 (Roy, R)# Democratic primary when Joe Biden emerged as the presumptive TX 32 (Allred, D) nominee. Without Bernie Sanders at the top, the battlefield is shrinking VA 2 (Luria, D) with virtually the same number of vulnerable Republican and Democratic seats, making it difficult for Republicans to make a large net Likely Democratic (9D, 2R) Likely Republican (9R) gain. AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) AZ 6 (Schweikert, R) Republicans are remarkably confident Biden will collapse under the CA 39 (Cisneros. D) FL 15 (Spano, R) pressure and that voters will blame China for the coronavirus and have FL 26 (Mucarsel-Powell, D) IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R) buyers remorse about their new Democratic member. But none of that NH 1 (Pappas, D) MI 6 (Upton, R) has happened on a broader scale up to this point. MI 8 (Slotkin, D) MT AL (Open; Gianforte, R)# The biggest questions are the condition of the economy (specifically MI 11 (Stevens, D) NC 8 (Hudson, R) voters’ trust in the president’s ability to handle the economic recovery) NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) NY 1 (Zeldin, R) and voter turnout. Specifically, does the coronavirus disproportionately NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) TX 10 (McCaul, R) impact the ability of minority communities to vote in key contests? NV 3 (Lee, D)# WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R) Even after losing 40 seats in 2018, there’s no guarantee Republicans PA 8 (Cartwright, D) won’t lose more in November. With less than six months to go before PA 17 (Lamb, D) Election Day, not only is the House majority not at risk, Democrats could gain seats. Right now, the most likely outcome is close to the status quo and fall into a range of a GOP gain of five seats to a Democratic gain of five seats. # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics InsideElections.com Alaska. Republicans following his 2018 primary challenge to then-Rep. Jeff At-Large District Don Young, R, re-elected 53%. Trump 51%. Denham. Despite a commitment to self-fund, he has only put $350,000 Independent Alyse Galvin, who lost by 7 points in 2018, is running again into the race (back in July 2019), further frustrating party operatives. and has outraised Young for the last three quarters -- she had $961,000 And that was before Politico published a series of anti-immigrant, anti- cash on hand compared to $804,000 for Young. Democrats think this Muslim, and racist posts made from Howze’s various social media could be a sleeper, noting Alaska’s political quirkiness. But Don Young’s accounts, prompting the NRCC to remove him from their Young Guns political obituary has been written many times before and Trump won program. Howze claims he wasn’t the one who sent them, but they’ll Alaska by 14 points in 2016. Solid R. only make things even harder for Republicans in this diverse district where just 41 percent of the population is non-Hispanic White. Move Arizona. from Likely D to Solid D. 1st District (Northeastern Arizona) Tom O’Halleran, D, re-elected 21st District (Southern Central Valley and part of Bakersfield) TJ 54%. Trump 48%. This is the type of rural district Republicans need to Cox, D, elected 50%. Clinton 55%. Republican David Valadao is back win to get back to the majority, but they’re struggling to keep it on the for a rematch after losing re-election to Cox in 2018. As current and map of competitive races. Republican attorney Tiffany Shedd, who lost in former Members, neither should suffer from a lack of money. Both the 2018 primary, was expected to be a better candidate this time but had Cox and Valadao had $1.2 million in the bank on March 31. Cox has just $180,000 in the bank on March 31. The congressman had $1 million the Democratic lean of the district going for him but has faced rounds and should be helped by Biden at the top of the ticket. Likely D. of negative stories about his business practices. Valadao is no longer 6th District (Scottsdale and North Phoenix) Dave Schweikert, the incumbent and has to contend with the top of the ticket, where R, re-elected 55%. Trump 52%. Republicans aren’t panicking yet, Trump could lose by at least 15 points. This looks like another close and even though the expensive race. Tilt D. congressman is still 25th District (Northern Los Angeles County suburbs) Mike Garcia, under investigation R, elected in May 12 special 55%. Clinton 50%. The newest member of by the House Ethics the House GOP caucus is also its most endangered. Garcia, the former Committee for fighter pilot who wrested the district back from Democrats following allegations of violating Rep. Katie Hill’s resignation, has the distinction of representing the most campaign finance Democratic district (according to the 2016 presidential results) of any laws. However Republican. Both parties agree that it will be more difficult for Garcia to his fundraising keep his seat in November, where he’ll face a more Democratic electorate has suffered than the one that chose him in May. During the special election, Garcia Courtesy Tipirneni Campaign Courtesy Tipirneni and Schweikert Hiral Tipirneni was aided by his outsider status and lack of a voting record, while trailed Democratic Democrat Christy Smith, who is also her party’s nominee for the fall, frontrunner Hiral Tipirneni in cash on hand on March 31, $1.2 million faced attacks over her two years in the state Assembly. But now Garcia is to $226,000. Democrats will need that financial advantage to inform a member of Congress, not an outsider, and he’ll amass a voting record voters about the congressman’s problems, and they are excited about the over the next six months that Democrats will weaponize against him. strength of Biden in the presidential race and Mark Kelly in the Senate And Smith will have outside help that she didn’t have in the special race at the top of the ballot. Voters might also give Tipirneni a second because Democrats were playing the long game. This is a district the look because she is a physician running during a pandemic. Likely R. president is likely to lose again, so Garcia will have to substantially outrun him. Move from Likely D to Tilt D. California. 39th District (San Gabriel Valley and northern Orange County) 10th District (Modesto area) Josh Harder, D, elected 52%. Clinton Gil Cisneros, D, elected 52%. Clinton 52%. Young Kim, who lost by 3 49%. This race was already shaping up to be a mess for Republicans, points in 2018, is regarded as one of Republicans’ best candidates (and with freshman Democrat Josh Harder ($3.6 million in the bank on March best fundraisers) in the country ($970,000 in the bank on March 31). But 31) proving to be one of his party’s best fundraisers. GOP nominee Ted that might not matter in this suburban, majority-minority district Clinton Howze ($101,000) was already viewed with some skepticism by national won by 9 points. Cisneros had $1.2 million on hand on March 31 and is Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC.
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