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The Anthem of the 2020 Elections

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This issue brought to you by 2020 House Ratings Toss-Up (6R, 2D) NE 2 (Bacon, R) OH 1 (Chabot, R) NY 2 (Open; King, R) OK 5 (Horn, D) NJ 2 (Van Drew, R) TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) NY 11 (Rose, D) TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R) SEPTEMBER 4, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 17 Tilt Democratic (13D, 2R) Tilt Republican (6R, 1L) CA 21 (Cox, D) IL 13 (Davis, R) CA 25 (Garcia, R) MI 3 (Open; Amash, L) FL 26 (Mucarsel-Powell, D) MN 1 (Hagedorn, R) Wait for It: The Anthem GA 6 (McBath, D) NY 24 (Katko, R) GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) PA 1 (Fitzpatrck, R) of the 2020 Elections IA 1 (Finkenauer, D) PA 10 (Perry, R) IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D) TX 21 (Roy, R) By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin IA 3 (Axne, D) Waiting is hard. It’s not something we do well as Americans. But ME 2 (Golden, D) waiting is prudent at this juncture of handicapping the elections and MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) GOP DEM even more essential on November 3 and beyond. NM 2 (Torres Small, D) 116th Congress 201 233 When each day seems to feature five breaking news stories, it’s easy NY 22 (Brindisi, D) Currently Solid 164 205 to lose sight that the race between President Donald Trump and Joe SC 1 (Cunningham, D) Competitive 37 28 Biden has been remarkably stable. That’s why it’s better to wait for data UT 4 (McAdams, D) Needed for majority 218 to prove that so-called game-changing events are just that. VA 7 (Spanberger, D) August saw relatively little polling, but that’s about to change as the Lean Democratic (7D, 1R) Lean Republican (6R) news media and political organizations shift to a sprint. Party strategists CA 48 (Rouda, D) AZ 6 (Schweikert, R) will be collecting survey data to determine their targets. And, over the KS 3 (Davids, D) FL 15 (Spano, R) next month, there will be an avalanche of public and private polling. NJ 3 (Kim, D) IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R) On the eve of that influx, we’re willing to wait for fresh data to help NJ 7 (Malinowski, D) MO 2 (Wagner, R) confirm or refute the conventional wisdom. That’s why we’re holding off TX 7 (Fletcher, D) MT AL (Open; Gianforte, R) on any rating changes this issue, since they would have been made on TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R) NC 8 (Hudson, R) limited recent data and assumptions. TX 32 (Allred, D) As we wait, it’s helpful to remember where things stood before VA 2 (Luria, D) the conventions. Biden had the advantage in the Electoral College, Democrats were more likely than not to gain control of the Senate and Likely Democratic (6D, 2R) Likely Republican (14R) Democrats were set to hold, and potentially increase, their majority in the AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) AK AL (Young, R) House. Of course that could change, but any movement or change in the CA 39 (Cisneros. D) AR 2 (Hill, R) dynamic should show up in national, state, and district-level polling. NH 1 (Pappas, D) CA 50 (Vacant, Hunter, R) Even if you’re frustrated by the lack of certainty in our current analysis NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) CO 3 (Open; Tipton, R) before the elections, everyone should adopt the “wait for it” mentality NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) FL 16 (Buchanan, R) when it comes to the final results. While the potential for slow vote NV 3 (Lee, D) MI 6 (Upton, R) counting gets plenty of attention, the inevitable litigation concerning which PA 8 (Cartwright, D) NY 1 (Zeldin, R) ballots should be counted has not. Both factors will prolong the official PA 17 (Lamb, D) OH 10 (Turner, R) results, but neither necessarily questions the legitimacy of the outcome. TX 2 (Crenshaw, R) There’s one thing everyone should be rooting for: decisive results. If TX 6 (Wright, R) multiple presidential battleground states or key Senate races are decided TX 10 (McCaul, R) by a few thousand votes or less, it will be tough for the loser to admit TX 25 (Williams, R) defeat and it will be difficult for the country to move forward with VA 5 (Open; Riggleman, R) leaders regarded as illegitimate. The best way to avoid that scenario is for WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R) resounding victories. But we have to wait to see if that happens. # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans Takeovers in Italics InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. The senator’s Georgia. David Perdue (R), elected 2014 (53%). Jan. 5 runoff (if campaign released a state of the race memo which listed grievances necessary). It looks increasingly unlikely that either the senator or with public polling Democratic documentarian Jon Ossoff will be able to cross 50 percent without detailing her in November, so the race will move to a January runoff. That would be own surveys. That’s an interesting scenario if control of the Senate hinges on the outcome usually not a great of this race and complicated by the state’s other seat, currently held sign. She also received by appointed-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, being on the January ballot as well. some negative press Republicans love to chide Ossoff for his youth and expensive special for suggesting that election loss in 2017. But GOP groups keep dumping more money her supporters skip a into the state to try to defeat him. If President Trump can improve his meal and contribute standing, then maybe this race would shift off the list of competitive the money to her races. But Georgia continues to be within reach for Joe Biden and thus campaign. Unlike Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Ossoff as well. Tilt Republican. Mark Kelly Colorado, the Public Policy Polling (D) for MoveOn, Aug. 13-14 (RVs) — General presidential race remains competitive in Arizona, keeping McSally afloat Election ballot: Perdue and Ossoff tied at 44%. in her face against former astronaut Mark Kelly. More than $64 million Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Ossoff Campaign, Aug. 10-13 (LVs) — General has been reserved for TV ads for the remainder of the race, according to Election ballot: Ossoff over Perdue 48% - 46%. Kantar/CMAG, including $32 million for Kelly and Democratic groups SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Aug. 6-8 (LVs) — General Election ballot: and $32 million for McSally and Republican groups. With a couple Perdue over Ossoff 44%-41%. months left in the race, McSally has to make up ground, particularly as she’s consistently running a few points behind President Donald Trump. Georgia. Kelly Loeffler (R) appointed Jan. 6, 2020. Special Tilt Democratic. election Nov. 3 (all candidates), Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary).With a Fox News, Aug. 29-Sept. 1 (live caller) (LVs) — General Election ballot: field of multiple credible candidates, the race is all but certain to go Kelly over McSally 56% - 39%. to a January runoff. The biggest questions are whether control of the Senate will depend on the outcome and whether Democrats will have a Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). The fundamentals candidate in the final matchup. If the election were held today, Loeffler of the race haven’t changed dramatically over the last couple weeks. and Rep. Doug Collins, both Republicans, might finish first and second President Trump is poised to lose the state by double-digits (in contrast and move on to the runoff. Rev. Raphael Warnock is viewed as the to his 5-point defeat in 2016), making it difficult for the senator to win most credible Democrat, but he started the race with little statewide re-election. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper may not be the perfect name recognition and modest initial fundraising. His fundraising has Democratic nominee, particularly after his admonishment by the ethics gotten better recently and he’s on television introducing himself to commission earlier in the cycle, but his higher profile in the state has voters. Democratic outside groups are likely watching to see if they been stable and a challenge for Republicans to knock down. Gardner’s need to supplement his spending with more positive ads to make allies are hoping the former governor’s slow response to debate sure the party avoids the catastrophe of not having a candidate in the invitations will come back to bite him. Democrats are excited to diminish runoff. Two other Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former Gardner’s rising star reputation by trying to keep his performance US Attorney Ed Tarver, are running as well and are complicating the similar to Trump’s in the state. Tilt Democratic. party’s overall efforts even though they don’t have a lot of financial Morning Consult, Aug. 21-30 (LVs) — General Election ballot: resources. Hickenlooper over Gardner 48% - 39%. Georgia United Victory, a GOP outside group, is on television Public Policy Polling (D) for Giffords PAC, Aug. 18-19 (RVs) — General attacking Collins, including a picture of him with 2018 Democratic Election ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner 51% - 42%. Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved.
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