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June 19, 2020 Volume 4, No This issue brought to you by Georgia Senate: The Road to Redemption By Jacob Rubashkin JUNE 19, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 12 Jon Ossoff has been the punchline of an expensive joke for the last three years. But the one-time failed House candidate might get the last laugh in a Senate race that has been out of the spotlight until recently. 2020 Senate Ratings Much of the attention around Georgia has focused on whether it’s a Toss-Up presidential battleground and the special election to fill the seat left by GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson. Collins (R-Maine) Tillis (R-N.C.) Polls consistently show Joe Biden running even with President McSally (R-Ariz.) Donald Trump, and Biden’s emerging coalition of non-white and Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican suburban voters has many Democrats feeling that this is the year they turn Georgia blue. Gardner (R-Colo.) In the race for the state’s other seat, appointed-GOP Sen. Kelly Lean Democratic Lean Republican Loeffler has been engulfed in an insider trading scandal, and though Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) the FBI has reportedly closed its investigation, it’s taken a heavy toll on Daines (R-Mont.) her image in the state. While she began unknown, she is now deeply Ernst (R-Iowa) unpopular; her abysmal numbers have both Republican and Democratic opponents thinking they can unseat her. Jones (D-Ala.) All this has meant that GOP Sen. David Perdue has flown under the Likely Democratic Likely Republican radar. But that may be changing now that the general election matchup Cornyn (R-Texas) is set. Loeffl er (R-Ga.) Perdue (R-Ga.) The Lay of the Land Democratic optimism in Georgia surely isn’t fueled by victories; the Solid Democratic Solid Republican party hasn’t won a statewide election since 2006. The last Democratic NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) presidential candidate to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1992, when he Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) barely edged out President George H.W. Bush 43.5-42.9 percent. Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) But Democrats have slowly gained ground over the past decade. In Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) 2012, President Barack Obama lost the state by 7.8 points to Mitt Romney. In 2014, Michelle Nunn lost her Senate race by 7.7 percent to Perdue. In Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the state by 5 points to Trump, 50-45 percent. Merkley (D-Ore.) Graham (R-S.C.) And in 2018, Democratic state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams Reed (D-R.I.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) lost the gubernatorial race to Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp Shaheen (D-N.H.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) by just 1.4 points. Smith (D-Minn.) McConnell (R-Ky.) The Democratic advances are powered by the nationwide leftward Warner (D-Va.) Risch (R-Idaho) shift in the suburbs accelerated by Trump, as well as the state’s growing GOP DEM Rounds (R-S.D.) and diversifying population. 116th Congress 53 47 Sasse (R-Neb.) This is particularly evident in suburban Atlanta, where in 2018 GOP DEM Democrats flipped the longtime Republican 6th District and came within Not up this cycle 30 35 Sullivan (R-Alaska) 115th Congress 51 49 419 votes of flipping the neighboring 7th District. Not up this cycle 42 23 Currently Solid 13 10 Currently Solid 4 18 Competitive 10 2 The CEO Senator Competitive 5 8 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Perdue, 70, was born in Macon and earned both his undergraduate Continued on page 5 InsideElections.com Elections Reach 2020 Presidential Ratings 2020 Presidential Ratings Key Moment (Electoral Votes) (Electoral Votes) Toss-Up (66) Toss-Up (66) By Nathan L. Gonzales Arizona (11) Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Arizona (11)# Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Wisconsin (10) Wisconsin (10) There’s still more than four months to go before November, but the Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) 2020 elections are at a critical juncture. Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) If the election were held today, President Donald Trump would be defeated, Democrats would win control of the Senate and expand their Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) majority in the House. Republicans would get routed. The biggest question Minnesota (10) New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Minnesota (10)* New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16)# Iowa (6) is whether this is a valley that Trump and the GOP will climb out of or a Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) deep well that they’ll be stuck in for the remainder of the cycle. Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6) Ohio (18) Texas (38) Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6)# Ohio (18) Texas (38)# Trump’s job rating was just 42 percent approve/55 percent disapprove as of Thursday, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) It’s the president’s lowest point in nearly eight months. In a head-to-head California (55) Alabama (9) Tennessee (11) California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) North Dakota (3) ballot test, Joe Biden had an 8.5-point advantage (50.1-42.7 percent), in Colorado (9) Alaska (3) Utah (6) Colorado (9) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) Oklahoma (7) the RealClearPolitics national average, and a 9.2-point lead (50.5-41.3 Connecticut (7) Arkansas (6) West Virginia (5) Connecticut (7) Virginia (13) Arkansas (6) South Carolina (9) percent), according to the newly-released FiveThirtyEight average, through Thursday. And Democrats have an 8.5-point lead in the national Delaware (3) Idaho (4) Wyoming (3) Delaware (3) Washington (12) Idaho (4) South Dakota (3) generic ballot, which is a wider margin than before the 2018 elections. D.C. (3) Indiana (11) D.C. (3) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) Of course we don’t have national elections in this country, but the Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Utah (6) polling in individual states and districts isn’t much better. Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) West Virginia (5) Taking into account analysis and calculations by Inside Elections, Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Wyoming (3) RCP, and FiveThirtyEight, Biden has the edge in all of the states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and is running ahead of or practically even with Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) the president in Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa. Biden only needs to win three New Jersey (14) Montana (3) New Jersey (14) Montana (3) or four of those states (depending on their size) to win. New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) There’s still a dearth of high-quality presidential polling in some individual states, but Trump’s inability to match or exceed his 2016 New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) performance is being confirmed by public and private polling in Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) competitive Senate and House races. Rhode Island (4) North Dakota (3) 270 needed to win GOP DEM Any Republican optimism is rooted in time, messaging, and the belief Vermont (3) Oklahoma (7) 2016 Results 304 227 that there is a systematic polling problem. Virginia (13) South Carolina (9) # moved benefi ting Democrats, It’s true that the elections are still months away. But even if Trump’s 2020 Ratings 204 268 standing improves, the race will only climb back to a knock-down, Washington (12) South Dakota (3) * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 drag-out, close contest. Republicans are confident in their ability 270 needed to win GOP DEM to define and tear down Biden and down ballot Democrats. But 2016 Results 304 227 Democrats have plenty of money to promote their own perspective. # moved benefi ting Democrats, 2020 Ratings 204 268 And while polling is imperfect, it’s unlikely that dozens of partisan and nonpartisan pollsters are all individually making the same * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 methodological mistake. Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 June 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Report Shorts Colorado Senate, Cory Gardner, R, elected 48%. It’s been a rough not even get 20 percent of the vote, the GOP primary is the de facto couple of weeks for former Gov. John Hickenlooper, the likely Democratic general election. But we won’t know who the next member of Congress nominee. He was forced to pay a $2,750 fine after the state’s Independent is just yet, because none of the nine candidates received a majority of Ethics Commission the vote. State Rep. Matt Gurtler and gun store owner Andrew Clyde found him guilty finished first and second, with 22 percent and 19 percent, respectively, of accepting two and will face off in an August 11 runoff.
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