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PPP’S Latest North Carolina Poll

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PPP’S Latest North Carolina Poll FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 12, 2013 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Hagan out in front of possible 2014 Republican opponents Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads nine possible Republican Senate candidates for the 2014 race by five to 15 points, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll. Every hypothetical GOP challenger trails Hagan. She leads Patrick McHenry 45/40, Cherie Berry 46/38, Thom Tillis 46/38, Renee Ellmers 47/38, Virginia Foxx 48/38, George Holding 46/36, Phil Berger 49/38, Greg Brannon 48/35 and Terry Embler 48/33. 39% of voters approve of Hagan’s job performance while 38% disapprove and 23% are not sure. 46% of moderates approve of Hagan’s performance to 26% who disapprove. The big shift for Hagan since January is that she is consolidating Democratic support but disapproval from independent voters has increased. 64% of Democrats now approve of Hagan’s job performance compared to only 49% in January. But independents are split 28% approving to 48% disapproving compared to 31% to 34% a month ago. “Kay Hagan continues to lead all her potential Republican opponents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Her approval numbers aren’t out of this world, but the pool of GOP candidates is weak.” PPP included several new candidates in this month’s poll of Republican primary voters. Cherie Berry leads with 18% support, followed by 16% for Foxx, 10% for Ellmers and McHenry, 7% for Berger, 5% for Brannon, 3% for Holding and Tillis and 1% for Embler. The field is still wide open with 27% supporting someone else or not sure. Berry is the only Republican with 50% name recognition, although Foxx is right behind her with 49%. Berry’s support is strongest with liberal and moderate GOP voters whereas Foxx’s base of support lies with conservative Republicans. Berry is the only Republican with a net positive favorability rating with general election voters (+12, 31/19). Potential bad news for Pat McCrory: 77% of Republican primary voters oppose his recent decision to give 8% raises to his Cabinet members, and just 14% support the move. PPP surveyed 600 North Carolina voters and 518 usual Republican primary voters from February 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4% and +/-4.3% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Phone: 888 621-6988 Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] North Carolina Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Hagan's job performance? of Virginia Foxx? Approve .................. 39% Not sure .................. 23% Favorable........................................................ 20% Disapprove.............. 38% Unfavorable .................................................... 29% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 51% of Phil Berger? Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Favorable........................................................ 9% of George Holding? Unfavorable .................................................... 29% Favorable........................................................ 9% Not sure .......................................................... 62% Unfavorable .................................................... 22% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 68% of Cherie Berry? Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Favorable........................................................ 31% of Patrick McHenry? Unfavorable .................................................... 19% Favorable........................................................ 18% Not sure .......................................................... 50% Unfavorable .................................................... 24% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 58% of Greg Brannon? Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Favorable........................................................ 5% of Thom Tillis? Unfavorable .................................................... 19% Favorable........................................................ 14% Not sure .......................................................... 76% Unfavorable .................................................... 25% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 61% of Renee Ellmers? Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Favorable........................................................ 16% Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil Berger, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 25% Kay Hagan...................................................... 49% Not sure .......................................................... 58% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Phil Berger ...................................................... 38% of Terry Embler? Not sure .......................................................... 13% Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 18% Not sure .......................................................... 75% February 7-10, 2013 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 600 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Cherie Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Patrick Berry, who would you vote for? McHenry, who would you vote for? Kay Hagan...................................................... 46% Kay Hagan...................................................... 45% Cherie Berry.................................................... 38% Patrick McHenry ............................................. 40% Not sure .......................................................... 16% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Brannon, who would you vote for? Tillis, who would you vote for? Kay Hagan...................................................... 48% Kay Hagan...................................................... 46% Greg Brannon ................................................. 35% Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 16% Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Ellmers, who would you vote for? conservative, or very conservative? Kay Hagan...................................................... 47% Very liberal...................................................... 11% Renee Ellmers ................................................ 38% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Moderate......................................................... 29% Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Somewhat conservative.................................. 22% Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Terry Embler, who would you vote for? Very conservative ........................................... 22% Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Kay Hagan...................................................... 48% Woman ........................................................... 54% Terry Embler ................................................... 33% Man................................................................. 46% Not sure .......................................................... 20% Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were press 2. If you are an independent or identify Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia with another party, press 3. Foxx, who would you vote for? Democrat ........................................................ 44% Kay Hagan...................................................... 48% Republican...................................................... 33% Virginia Foxx ................................................... 38% Independent/Other.......................................... 23% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were press 2. If other, press 3. Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican George Holding, who would you vote for? White .............................................................. 75% Kay Hagan...................................................... 46% African-American ............................................ 20% George Holding..............................................
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