THE URBAN RAIL DEVELOPMENT HANDBOOK THE URBAN RAIL DEVELOPMENT HANDBOOK Daniel Pulido Georges Darido Ramon Munoz-Raskin and Joanna Moody Editors © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 21 20 19 18 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refl ect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Cover and interior design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Washington, DC Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. CONTENTS Foreword xxix Acknowledgments xxxvii About the Editors and Authors xxxix Abbreviations xliii CHAPTER 1. Introduction 3 Joanna Moody, Georges Darido, Ramon Munoz-Raskin, and Daniel Pulido Objectives 5 Structure 6 Value for Readers 11 Key Cross-Cutting Messages 13 Note 17 References 18 Additional Reading 18 CHAPTER 2. Urban Rapid Transit as an Opportunity for Sustainable and Inclusive Development 21 Georges Darido and Joanna Moody Socially Inclusive Urban Transport 22 Urban Transport and Low-Income Residents 23 Urban Transport and Women 24 Urban Transport and People with Reduced Mobility 24 Conceptual Framework: The Four “As” 25 v vi | THE URBAN RAIL DEVELOPMENT HANDBOOK Availability 26 Data and Analytical Tools for Addressing Availability 29 Addressing Availability throughout the Project Development Process 29 Accessibility 31 Data and Analytical Tools for Addressing Accessibility 31 Policy Tools for Addressing Accessibility 35 Aff ordability 36 Data and Analytical Tools for Addressing Aff ordability 38 Policy Tools for Addressing Aff ordability 41 Acceptability 45 Addressing Acceptability during Project Planning and Design 46 Addressing Acceptability during Operations 46 Potential Unintended Eff ects of Rapid Transit Project Development 48 Ensuring That Urban Rapid Transit Projects Work for All 49 Conclusions and Recommendations 50 Notes 52 References 52 Additional Reading 54 CHAPTER 3. Deciding Whether to Develop an Urban Rail Project 57 Georges Darido, Joanna Moody, and Slobodan Mitrić Diagnostic Studies of Urban Transport 60 Demand-Side Diagnostic Activities 61 Supply-Side Diagnostic Activities 61 Demand Modeling 62 The Traditional Four-Step Model 64 Strategic or Sketch Models 65 Demand Modeling in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 65 Using the Demand Outputs 66 Development of an Integrated Urban Mobility Strategy 68 Generation of Investment Alternatives 70 Typical Alternatives 71 Level of Design of Alternatives 76 Evaluation of Alternatives 77 Economic Evaluation 78 Multicriteria Analysis 83 Financial Analysis 85 Fiscal Analysis 87 Reviewing the Results 87 Dealing with Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Alternatives 88 Sensitivity Analysis 88 Probabilistic Approaches 89 Contents | vii From a Study to a Decision 90 Conclusions and Recommendations 93 Notes 94 References 95 Additional Reading 97 CHAPTER 4. Project Management Planning 99 Ramon Munoz-Raskin, Joanna Moody, and Edward Fleischman Project Management Organization 102 The Core Project Management Team 103 The Role of Consultants 103 Internal Capacity Building for the Implementation of Urban Rail 104 The Importance of Communication 106 The Importance of Continual Benchmarking 106 Fundamental Project Management Planning Tools 107 Project Scope 107 Budget and Cost Control 108 Schedule Control 110 Risk Management 113 Project Management Planning throughout the Project Development Process 115 Planning Management 117 Design Management 119 Construction Management 122 Start-Up, Testing, and Short-Term Operations 123 Medium- and Long-Term Operations and Maintenance 124 Conclusions and Recommendations 124 Note 126 References 126 Additional Reading 127 CHAPTER 5. Designing an Urban Rail Project 129 Georges Darido, Joanna Moody, and Wenyu Jia Key Challenges in Urban Rail Design 131 Design Standards 131 Designing for the Capacity Needed in the Long Term 132 Trade-Off s and Interdependencies among Design Features 134 Multimodal Integration of Urban Rail Design 135 Design Features and Options 136 Infrastructure and Civil Works 137 Rolling Stock 150 Systems 153 viii | THE URBAN RAIL DEVELOPMENT HANDBOOK Capital Cost Estimation 160 Key Drivers of Capital Costs 160 Methods for Cost Estimation 162 Allocation of Cost Estimation Responsibilities 164 Variability of Capital Costs 165 Exogenous Cost Drivers 166 Conclusions and Recommendations 167 Notes 169 References 169 Additional Reading 170 CHAPTER 6. Project Optimization 173 Edward Fleischman, Ramon Munoz-Raskin, and Joanna Moody Project Optimization through the Project Development Process 175 Optimization by Project Staff : Value Analysis 179 Risk Analysis 179 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 180 Optimization Involving External Experts 181 Peer Reviews 182 Value Engineering 184 Constructability Reviews 190 Operability Reviews 193 Alternative Contracting Strategies 194 Design-Build 194 Public-Private Partnerships 195 Conclusions and Recommendations 196 Note 199 References 199 Additional Reading 200 CHAPTER 7. Managing Risks 203 Daniel Pulido and Ramiro Alberto Ríos Managing Risks in Urban Rail Projects 205 Risk Identifi cation 206 Risk Assessment 207 Risk Mitigation 212 Risk Allocation or Transfer 213 Treatment of Retained Risks 215 Risk Monitoring 215 Key Potential Risks in Urban Rail Projects 216 Multistep Risks 216 Contents | ix Precontractual Risks 220 Site Risks 222 Design, Construction, and Commissioning Risks 225 Operational Risks 230 Transferring Risk through a PPP 236 Conclusions and Recommendations 238 Notes 240 References 241 Additional Reading 242 CHAPTER 8. Procuring the Project 245 Daniel Pulido and Joanna Moody Procurement Strategy 246 Spectrum of Project Delivery Models 247 Design-Bid-Build or Traditional Procurement 250 Construction Manager at Risk 252 Design-Build 253 Design-Build-Finance 254 Engineering, Procurement, and Construction or Turnkey Contracting 255 Public-Private Partnerships 256 Choosing the Best Project Delivery Model 260 Project Drivers 261 Project Owner Drivers 263 Legal and Regulatory Drivers 266 Market Drivers 266 Risk Drivers 269 Choosing a Compensation Mechanism 269 Fixed Price 270 Reimbursable Price 271 Guaranteed Maximum Price 271 Choosing and Designing the Tender Process 273 Choosing the Tender Process 273 Designing the Tender Process 276 MDB Procurement Requirements 278 Conclusions and Recommendations 279 Annex 8A. Qualifi cation Requirements and Results for Recent Urban Rail Project Procurements 282 Notes 287 References 288 Additional Reading 289 x | THE URBAN RAIL DEVELOPMENT HANDBOOK CHAPTER