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Solent Connectivity May 2020

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Solent Connectivity May 2020 Solent Connectivity May 2020 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning Page | 1 Page | 2 Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2.0 The Solent CMSP Study ................................................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Scope and Geography....................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Fit with wider rail industry strategy ................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Governance and process .................................................................................................................. 12 3.0 Context and Strategic Questions ............................................................................................................ 15 3.1 Strategic Questions .......................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Economic context ............................................................................................................................. 16 3.3 Travel patterns and changes over time ............................................................................................ 18 3.4 Dual-city region aspirations and city to city connectivity ................................................................. 20 3.5 Transport network issues ................................................................................................................. 20 3.6 Development & spatial planning- current policies .......................................................................... 22 3.7 Transport proposals and strategies .................................................................................................. 26 3.7.1 Solent LEP Strategic Transport Investment Plan (2016) .................................................. 26 3.7.2 Transforming Cities Fund (TCF) proposals (2019/20) ...................................................... 27 3.7.3 Southampton TCF proposals ........................................................................................... 29 3.7.4 Transport for the South East (TfSE) Transport Strategy .................................................. 31 3.8 Implications for rail as part of the transport mix in Solent and for this CMSP study ..................... 32 4. Solent’s rail network: usage, trends, challenges and plans .............................................................................. 34 4.1 Current usage and trends ................................................................................................................. 34 4.2 Mode share ...................................................................................................................................... 37 4.3 Stakeholder aspirations and identified issues and opportunities ................................................... 39 4.4 Freight in the Solent Area ................................................................................................................. 39 4.5 Current network: performance and constraints .............................................................................. 41 4.5.1 Eastleigh .......................................................................................................................... 42 4.5.2 Southampton Airport Parkway ....................................................................................... 42 4.5.3 Southampton Central and Southampton Corridor ......................................................... 43 4.5.4 Single track lines: Botley Line and Chandler’s Ford ........................................................ 44 4.5.5 Fareham and the St Denys to Cosham corridor ............................................................. 44 4.5.6 Portsmouth stations ....................................................................................................... 45 4.5.7 Constraints highlighted by performance and resilience workstream ............................. 46 4.5.7 Summary of performance and constraints ..................................................................... 47 4.6 Other current strategies and studies ....................................................................................... 47 4.6.1 Coastway CMSP – emerging recommendations ............................................................ 47 Page | 3 4.6.3 Fawley Branch and Waterside rail proposals .................................................................. 48 5. Demand, travel pattern and Journey Time analysis ......................................................................................... 51 5.1 Key travel markets for rail in Solent- analysis of ticketing data ...................................................... 51 5.2 Key rail commuting flows - analysis of Census data ......................................................................... 52 5.3 Comparison of rail commuting flows and all-modes commuting flows into Portsmouth and Southampton .......................................................................................................................................... 55 5.4 Comparison of rail’s competitiveness with driving for commuters ................................................. 58 5.5 Portsmouth to Southampton connectivity ....................................................................................... 59 5.6 Low Use Stations: Analysis ............................................................................................................... 61 5.7 Current travel patterns and demand: conclusions .......................................................................... 63 5.8 Future Demand Growth - baseline .................................................................................................. 64 5.8.1 Comparison to TfSE Transport Strategy forecasts .......................................................... 65 5.8.3 Impact of Growth forecasts on 2050 peak hour train loadings ...................................... 66 6. Development and testing of train service options ........................................................................................... 70 6.1 Research informing train frequency targets .................................................................................... 70 6.2 High level testing of train service options ....................................................................................... 72 6.2.1 Assessment of “long list” of service interventions ......................................................... 73 6.3 Shortlisting of train service options ................................................................................................. 78 6.4 Timetable modelling of shortlisted options ..................................................................................... 81 6.5 Order of magnitude economic appraisal of shortlisted options ..................................................... 84 7. Development and assessment of infrastructure interventions ........................................................................ 85 7.1 Totton Goods Loop .......................................................................................................................... 85 7.2 Portsmouth Stations ........................................................................................................................ 86 7.2.1 Portsmouth Harbour ...................................................................................................... 86 7.2.2 Portsmouth and Southsea .............................................................................................. 89 7.3 Eastleigh P1 Crossover ..................................................................................................................... 90 7.4 Botley Line Redoubling .................................................................................................................... 90 7.4.1 Layout 1 .......................................................................................................................... 90 7.4.2 Layout 2 .......................................................................................................................... 91 7.4.3 Layout 3 .......................................................................................................................... 92 7.5 Fareham Platform 2 ......................................................................................................................... 93 8 Operational, Resilience and Performance ........................................................................................................ 95 8.1 Infrastructure and timetabling ........................................................................................................ 95 8.2 Rolling stock ..................................................................................................................................... 95 8.3 Resilience ......................................................................................................................................... 97 8.4 Performance information ................................................................................................................ 97 Page | 4 8.5 SWR Independent Performance Review
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