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Using the Case of Illegal Manta Ray Trade in Indonesia to Evaluate the Impact of Wildlife Trade Policy

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Using the Case of Illegal Manta Ray Trade in Indonesia to Evaluate the Impact of Wildlife Trade Policy Using the case of illegal manta ray trade in Indonesia to evaluate the impact of wildlife trade policy Hollie Booth September 2016 A thesis submitted for the partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at Imperial College London Submitted for the MSc in Conservation Science I declare this thesis “Using the case of illegal manta ray trade in Indonesia to evaluate the impact of wildlife trade policy” is entirely my own work, and that where material could be construed as the work of others, it is fully cited and references and/or with appropriate acknowledgment given. Signature Name of Student: Hollie Booth Name of supervisors: Simon Pooley and Tom Clements 2 Table of Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .............................................................................................. 5 Personal Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................. 6 Statement of Own Work ................................................................................................................... 7 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 8 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Methods ............................................................................................................................................. 11 Framework development .......................................................................................................................... 11 Case studies ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Sites .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Data collection and analysis ............................................................................................................................... 15 Impact evaluation .................................................................................................................................................. 16 Results ............................................................................................................................................... 17 Fishing effort .............................................................................................................................................. 17 Catch ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 Trade ............................................................................................................................................................ 21 Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 24 Impact evaluation ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Research needs ........................................................................................................................................... 25 Data limitations ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 Bias ........................................................................................................................................................................... 26 System complexity ................................................................................................................................................ 26 Recommendations ...................................................................................................................................... 27 Social considerations ............................................................................................................................................ 27 3 Broader horizons ................................................................................................................................................... 29 The future of wildlife policy impact evaluation ............................................................................................. 29 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... 29 Supporting information ................................................................................................................. 30 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................................... 30 S1 Semi-structured interview template ...................................................................................... 35 S2 Non-sensitive stakeholder interviewee list .......................................................................... 40 S3 Online survey for expert review of monitoring framework .............................................. 42 S4 Summary statistics of online survey respondents ............................................................... 65 S5 Summary of monitoring framework review ......................................................................... 66 S6 Case study sites background ................................................................................................... 69 S7 Description of secondary data sources .................................................................................. 84 S8 Interview-administered questionnaires ................................................................................ 87 S9 Catch data analysis and model outputs ............................................................................... 113 S10 Price data analysis ................................................................................................................. 128 Literature Cited in Supporting Information ............................................................................ 130 4 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AIC Akaike Information Criteria CITES Convention on International Trade in Engendered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna GLHT General Linear Hypothesis Test GLM General Linear Model MMAF Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries NGO Non-Governmental Organisation US United States WCS Wildlife Conservation Society WCU Wildlife Crimes Unit Word count: 5,994 5 Personal Acknowledgments There are many people without whom I would not have survived, or indeed even began, this thesis. To name a few: I am incredibly grateful to Simon Pooley, Tom Clements and E.J. Milner-Gulland for their academic and moral support throughout this process. You’ve all helped to keep me both sane and shrewd – two essential characteristics when attempting to craft coherent scholarly prose that is truly worthy of a £9,000 investment. None of this would have been possible without the incredible team at WCS Indonesia, who are some of the most dedicated and inspiring people I’ve had the pleasure to work with. Peni Lestari, thank you for taking the time out of your ever-hectic schedule to help me to figure out what on earth was going on and where to being, while always keeping smile on your face (even when you had 4 social surveys to analyse in a week); Dwi Adhiasto, thank you for wisdom and sincerity on the complexity of the manta ray issue, keep up the great work and hopefully we’ll both get to meet Leo some day. Specific thanks should also go to Yudi Herdiana, Yunita Setyorini, Ati Ningtias, Yulia Sudjatmiko, Shella Khriesna for their technical and practical help throughout, and for making me feel at home so far away from home. My wonderful research assistants, Popi Puspitasari and Devina Sandriati: I wouldn't have been able to accomplish half of what I’ve achieved in this research project without your tenacity and commitment. Your wit and good humour made our little team a pleasure to work in, as did the pizza and karaoke. I’m also grateful to several people from Conservation International, the Manta Trust, Misool Baseftin, Reef Check, Manta Watch and many others, for offering their time and expertise to this process. In particular, the research in Lamakera would not have been possible without the help of Sarah Lewis and Iqbal Herwata. 6 Thanks also to Ben Johnson for his eternal patience and boundless emotional support; to the Bush Babes & Paul Sagar for offering on-tap comic relief, and generally being the best friends a girl could wish for; to Jocelyn Sze, James Foley and Chris Gibbons for helping me to tame the beast that is R; and to Team ConSci for the laughs, late night computer room parties, and for making the stressful times a lot less lonely. And of course my parents, to whom I’m thankful every day, for everything. Statement of Own Work The Wildlife Conservation Society Indonesia provided me with raw landings data from Tanjung Luar for 2013-2016, law enforcement records, intelligence records, and project records with data from market surveys collected by various staff members and consultants. Misool Baseftin provided me with landings data from Lamakera for 2015-2016.
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