Environmental Impact Monitoring Center MNP, Armenia 29 Komitas

Home , Dzoraget (river), Pambak (river)

A r The assessment of the climate change m impacts on water quality in the Khrami-Debed e and Aghstev transboundary river basins c o m Seyran H. Minasyan o n Environmental Impact Monitoring Center i MNP, Armenia t o r 29 Komitas Str., 0012 Yerevan, Armenia i n Tel: (+37410) 266191, Mob.Tel: (+37491) 266191 g [email protected] With contribution: G. Shahazaryan, B. Zaqaryan, L. Margaryan

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A r Regional Climate Change Impacts Study m for the South Caucasus Region e c o The study has considered four areas for investigation: (1) recent historical and m projected climate change, (2) impacts of climate change on transboundary river basins, (3) impacts of climate change on crop water and irrigation requirements in o critical agricultural areas, and (4) the effect of climate change on urban heat stress in n selected cities in the region. i • Climate change is already occurring in the South Caucasus. t • The South Caucasus it will continue to become drier this century. . o • All climate models are in agreement that the South Caucasus will become warmer. r • Water supply is likely to decrease in important transboundary basins. i • Substantially more water will be required in the future in critical agricultural areas to maintain the current cropping pattern due to a likely decrease of n precipitation and an increase of temperature. g • Urban heat stress may be a significant climate change-induced health issue in the South Caucasus. • Climate change in the South Caucasus is a transnational challenge.

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A The country spatial means of the projected r change in mean annual precipitation for the South m e Caucasus across the best set of GCMs (A2). c o m Model Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia o (%) (%) (%) n HadCM3 i Percent Change (2030 - 2049 vs. 1980 - 1999) -4 0 -2 Percent Change (2080 - 2099 vs. 1980 - 1999) -22 -10 -11 t ECHAM5 o Percent Change (2030 - 2049 vs. 1980 - 1999) -6 3 2 r Percent Change (2080 - 2099 vs. 1980 - 1999) -20 -5 0 i GFDL 2.1 n Percent Change (2030 - 2049 vs. 1980 - 1999) -8 1 1 g Percent Change (2080 - 2099 vs. 1980 - 1999) -31 -15 -24 GISS ER Percent Change (2030 - 2049 vs. 1980 - 1999) -2 -4 -2 Percent Change (2080 - 2099 vs. 1980 - 1999) -20 -23 -20

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A All climate models are in agreement that the South r m Caucasus will become warmer. e c o m Across the four o selected GCMs, the n projected change in i mean annual t temperature is (A2 emissions scenario): o 1.1 ºC – 1.9 ºC, r for Armenia. By i 2100, the increase n may be dramatic: g 4.4 ºC-5.5 ºC.

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A r The South Caucasus it will continue to become drier this m century. e c o All four models that m simulate historical climate reasonably o well in the region n project declines in i precipitation for t Armenia: 20 – 31% o by the end of the r century i (A2 emissions n scenario). g

Semi-desert +22%; Steppe +5%; Ludosteppe +41%; Forest -5%; Sub-Alpine-40%; Alpine -59% Dr. G. Fayvush, IB NAS Armenia, private communication, A The location of the three trans-boundary river r basins in the South Caucasus. m e c o m o n Debed i Aghstev. t o r i n g

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva The Impact of Climate Change on Transboundary Water Resources Assessment of changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin of the rivers Debed and Aghstev.

Due to projected declining precipitation and increasing temperatures, by 2040, mean annual stream flow is projected to decline 11 – 14% in the Aghstev Basin and 9 – 11% in the Khrami-Debed Basin. By 2100, dramatic declines are expected: 59 – 72% in the Aghstev and 45 – 62% in the Khrami-Debed. Khrami-Debed Agstev Figures showing the locations of weather stations on the rivers Debed and Aghstev. About 70 - 80% of the water in these basins is used for agriculture. In both basins, there has been a distinct increase in temperature over 1991-2006. compared with 1961, 1990gg, ranging from 0,2 - 0,6 º C in the basin of p. Aghstev and 0,5 - 0,7 º C in the basin of p. Debed. All weather stations in r.Agstev recorded a moderate decrease in precipitation for two time periods (-3 - -6%), whereas in the basin of p. Debed decrease of precipitation is -9 - 10%. Armhidromet , Hayrapetyan K.A. T, oC Water Temperature for the Debed River Basin during the period of A 25 1977-2009 r m 20 e Pambak-Spitak c 15 Pambak-Vanadzor o m 10 Debed-Ayrum o n 5 Dzoraget-Stepanavan i t 0 o 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 r Predictions of water quality on the increase of BOD 5 (mg / l) i due to climate change in the basin Debed. n g Site Basis 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 Pambak-Vanadzor 7.7 9.5 12.0 17.8 Debed-Ajrum 6.0 7.4 10.4 17.4 Dzoraget-Gagarin 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.8 Khrami-Red bridge( border Geo-Azer) 6.7 8.3 10.4 16.4

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva 25

T, o C Water Temperature for the Debed River Basin during the period of Nitrate Nitrogen in the Debed River during the period of 20 1977-2009 mg/L 1979-2009 A 12.0

10.0 r15 Pambak-Spitak 8.0 m Pambak-Vanadzor 10 6.0 e 4.0Debed-Ayrum 5 c NoNoNo CorrelationCorrelationCorrelation2.0Dzoraget-Stepanavan o0 0.0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 m 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Pambak-Vanadzor Debed-Ayrum BOD in the Debed River during the period of 1979-2009 o mg/L 5 16.0 n 14.0 12.0 i No Correlation10.0 NoNo CorrelationCorrelation8.0 t 6.0 o 4.0 2.0 r 0.0 Ammonia Nitrogen in the Debed River during the period of Calcium/Magnesium in the Debed River during the period of 1979-2009 mg/L 1979-2009 12.0 50.0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 i 45.0 10.0 40.0 Pambak-Vanadzor Debed-Ayrum n 8.0 35.0 30.0 g 6.0 NoNoNo CorrelationCorrelationCorrelation25.0 20.0 4.0 15.0 10.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Pambak-Vanadzor Debed-Ayrum Pambak-Vanadzor Debed-Ayrum CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A Water Temperature for the Aghstev River during the period of T, oC r 1977-2009 20 m 18 e 16 14 c 12 10 o 8 m 6 4 o 2 0 n 8 3 8 9 7 979 984 985 008 009 i 1977 197 1 1980 1981 1982 198 1 1 1986 1987 198 198 1990 2006 200 2 2 1-2005 99 t 1 o Aghstev-Dilijan Aghstev-Ijevanan r Predictions of water quality on the increase of BOD 5 (mg / l) i due to climate change in the basin Aghstev. n Site Basis 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 g Agstev-Ijevan 6.5 8.1 10.5 19.0 Voskepar-Kirantz 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva A r m e c NoNoNo CorrelationCorrelationCorrelation o m o n i NoNo CorrelationCorrelation t No Correlation o r i n g NoNoNo CorrelationCorrelationCorrelation

Legal reforms Concept paper on water sector reforms, 2001 Water Code, 2002 National Water Policy, 2005 National Water Program, 2006, including program of short-, medium-, and long-term measures Over 120 normative acts V.Narimanyan, private communication, 2011

Government of Armenia Resolution No 75-N of January 27, 2011 On Definitation of Water Quality Norms for Each Water Basin Management Area, Taking Into Consideration the Peculiarities of the Territory

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva Development of water monitoring programs for the transboundary rivers Debed and Agstev A (“EU Project Trans-Boundary River Management Phase II for the Kura River basin - r Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan”, m 25 6 T 24 e : Operational c : Surveillance, yearly o : Surveillance, every rd3year m 23 : Reference 5b o 5a : Includes transport monitoring 21 Proposal for n location and i 22b 22a type of t 22a 15 monitoring o 2 3 12 14 4a stations r 11 16 1 13 i 17 n 20 18 g

19a19

Development Biological + Chemical + Hydromorphological

Presence, 2009-2012 + Biological + Hydromorphological

Chemical 79217000 AMD 17 670 000 150500 Euro 61546500 33500 129-130 % 117000-12000 29-30% 100% Financial Deficit for surface Water Monitoring according WFD CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva TheThe newnew SurfaceSurface WaterWater QulityQulity StandartsStandarts inin ArmenaArmena ParameterParameter (group)(group) 104104 (115)(115)

WFD PRIORITY SUBSTANCES (organic micropolutants) 33 OTHER SPECIFIC POLLUTANTS 9 Microbiological and biological parameters 1(12) Radioactivity 2 Other specific parameters 7

Oxygen regime 4 Termal condition 1 Salinity 5 Nutrients 9 Acidification 2 Other parameters 5 Metalls (Metalls dissolved and total13) 28 A Development of the background concentrations for heavy metals in surface r waters m e c o m o n i t o r i n g

20 September, Yerevan, Armenia A r Proposed Surface Water Qulity m Standarts in Armena, Debed River e c o m Phosphates 0.031 0.1 0.2 0.4 >0,4 mg/l o Zn, total 4.300 100 200 500 >500 ug/l n Cu, total 3.000 24 50 100 >100 ug/l i Cr, total 1.3 11.3 100 250 >250 ug/l As, total 0.420 20.420 50 100 >100 ug/l t Cd, total 0.24 1.24 2.24 4.24 >4,016 ug/l o Pb, total 0.66 10.66 25 50 >50 ug/l r Ni, total 1.1 11.1 50 100 >100 ug/l i Mo, total 0.76 1.52 3.04 6.08 >6.08 ug/l n Mn, total 32 64 128 256 >256 ug/l g V, total 2.87 5.74 11.48 22.96 >22.96 ug/l Co, total 1.4 2.8 5.6 11.2 >11.2 ug/l Fe, total 0.091 0.182 0.5 1 >1 mg/l

Barium Ba μg/l BG 2xBG or 100 4xBG or 250 1000 >1000 Beriliium Be μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 100 >100 Potassium K mg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG Sodium Na mg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG Litium Li μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 2500 Boron, total B μg/l BG 450 700 1000 2000 Aluminum, total Al μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 5000 Selen, total Se μg/l BG or 20 40 80 >80 Tellur , total Te μg/l 10BG or 2xBG or 20 4xBG or 40 8xBG or 80 >8xBG Antimony, total Sb μg/l BG10 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG Tin. Total Sn μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG Titan, total Ti μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG Uranium, total U μg/l BG 2xBG 4xBG 8xBG >8xBG

Copper, total (in CuÁ μg/l <50 (or BG) 50 100 1000 >1000 SS =30mg/L) Ý¹. Moldova

dissolved Cudis μg/l BG BG+10 25 50 >100 Armenia total Cutot μg/l BG BG+20 50 100 >200 Armenia A r Tree countries in South Caucasus have m several common issues in a e c transboundary context. o m Lack of inter-ministry or departmental o coordination to deal with comprehensive n i water resource management practices. t Technical data availability. o Data sharing among countries. r i Institutional mechanism to coordinate n transboundary issues. g Lack of data on groundwater because of their physical absence. Concealing and failure to provide data on groundwater.

CGCGCG PPAPPAPPA CCCCCC TBTBTB UNECEUNECEUNECE WC,WC,WC, IIIIII meeting,meeting,meeting, 232323---24,24,24, November,November,November, 2011,2011,2011, GenevaGenevaGeneva