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Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis – Update 2013

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Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis – Update 2013 TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS – UPDATE 2013 UNDP/GEF Project Reducing Transboundary Degradation in the Kura-Ara(k)s River Basin September 2013 – Baku/ Tbilisi/Yerevan www.kura-aras.org UNDP/GEF PROJECT REDUCING TRANSBOUNDARY DEGRADATION IN THE KURA ARA(K)S RIVER BASIN UPDATED TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS Tbilisi, Georgia – Baku, Azerbaijan – Yerevan, Armenia September 2013 2013 UPDATED TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS FOR THE KURA RIVER BASIN The Updated Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for the Kura1 River Basin focuses on priority environmental issues that are transboundary in nature. The preparation of the Updated TDA involved the assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of transboundary issues, and the identification of institutional, legal and policy issues that need to be addressed. Information presented in the Updated TDA is obtained from publicly accessible sources – publications, statistical services, as well as from national experts in the project countries. While the Kura Ara(k)s river basin also includes Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the TDA does not provide information on these countries, as they do not participate in the UNDP/GEF Kura Ara(k)s project, under the guidance of which this TDA is prepared. A comprehensive analysis of transboundary issues provides a factual basis to formulate recommended options for improving the environmental situation and ensuring the sustainable development of the Kura Ara(k)s River Basin. The Updated TDA was produced on the basis of comprehensive studies of the physical and geographical features, water uses, and the socio-economic and environmental situation in the Kura Ara(k)s River Basin with respect to three of the five riparian countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Updated TDA was prepared using the Draft TDA as finalized in 2007 as the baseline. The views presented in this report do not necessarily coincide with the views of the United Nations (UN), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), or of the project countries Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, but is the sole view of the authors and contributors to this report. Colophon Project Title Reducing transboundary degradation in the Kura Ara(k)s river basin Financing Global Environment Facility Implementing Agency UNDP United Nations Development Program Executing Agency UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services Chief Technical Advisor Dr Mary. M. Matthews / Project Coordinator Report Editors Harald J.L. Leummens & Mary M. Matthews Contributions Mutallim Abdulhasanov, Gevorg Afyan, Hovik Aghinyan, Adishirin Alakbarov, Marine Arabidze, Nick Arevadze, Matanat Avazova, Helen Bakradze, Lale Bayramova, Medgar Chelidze, Levon Chilingaryan, Astghik Danielyan, Ahmed Abou Elseoud, Nino Gagelidze, Khudaverdi Ganbarov, Vakhtang Geladze, Aram Gevorgyan, David Girgvliani, Karlen Grigoryan, Tamuna Gugushvili, Nino Gvazava, Tim Hannan, Lilith Harutyunyan, Sahib Hasanzade, Brigette Herron, Shamil Huseynov, Farda Imanov, Medea Inashvili, Aida Iskoyan, Vafadar Ismayilov, Reyhana Jafarova, Tigran Kalantaryan, Dima Kavtuashvili, Sahib Khalilov, Inga Kurtskhalia, Harald Leummens, Zaal Lomtadze, Marina Makarova, Ahmed Mammadov, Lyana Mammadova, Mary Matthews, Hamlet Melkonyan, Seyran Minasyan, Ilia Mtskhvetadze, Volodya Narimanyan, Shake Nersisyan, Hovhannes Nikoghosyan, Anar Nuriyev, Teymur Osmanov, Rustam Rajabov, Vilik Sargsyan, Lilit Simonyan, Leyla Tagizadeh, Lusine Taslakyan, Vahagn Tonoyan, Ivane Tsiklauri, Baadur Ukleba, Asif Verdiyev, Rafik Verdiyev, Benik Zakaryan. Suggested citation Leummens H.J.L. & M.M. Matthews, 2013. Updated Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for the Kura Ara(k)s river basin. UNDP/GEF “Reducing transboundary degradation in the Kura Ara(k)s river basin”, Tbilisi-Baku-Yerevan, 2013, 209 pp. 1 1 Other frequently used names for the Kura river include Mtkvari, Kurachay, Cyrus. Other names for the Ara(k)s river include Ara, Aras, Araz, Arax. The standardized use of the names “Kura” and “Ara(k)s” does not reflect any preference or opinion of the authors or contributors on the correct names of these rivers, other than of harmonization. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................................. 2 LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 7 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 13 2. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................... 14 2.1. Background ......................................................................................................................... 14 2.2. Update methodology ........................................................................................................... 15 3. BASELINE DESCRIPTION OF THE BASIN ........................................................................... 19 3.1. Physical setting ................................................................................................................... 19 3.2. Human setting ..................................................................................................................... 37 3.3. Institutional setting ............................................................................................................... 56 4. MAIN TRANSBOUNDARY PROBLEMS ................................................................................ 77 4.1. Variation and reduction in hydrological flow ........................................................................ 77 4.2. Deterioration of water quality ............................................................................................... 92 4.3. Ecosystem degradation ..................................................................................................... 115 4.4. Flooding ............................................................................................................................. 132 5. LINKAGES, COMMONALITIES, BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES ................................ 149 5.1. Linkages between problems .............................................................................................. 149 5.2. Common causes for transboundary issues ....................................................................... 151 6. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS RELATED TO WATER MANAGEMENT .............. 152 6.1. Climate change trends ...................................................................................................... 152 6.2. Social development trends ................................................................................................ 159 6.3. Economic development trends .......................................................................................... 168 7. FUTURE TRENDS AND SCENARIOS .................................................................................. 186 7.1. Assessment of observed trends ........................................................................................ 186 7.2. Future Scenarios ............................................................................................................... 192 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 198 8.1. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 198 8.2. Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 198 - 1 - LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank GE Georgia AM Armenia GEF Global Environment Facility AM-EIMC Armenia Environmental Impact Monitoring GE-MEn Ministry of Energy of Georgia Center AM-MNP Ministry of Nature Protection of Armenia GE-MEnNR Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia ArmStat National Statistical Service of the Republic GE-MEPNR Ministry of Environment Protection and of Armenia Natural Resources of Georgia AZ Azerbaijan GE-MEP Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia AZ-MA Ministry of Agriculture of Azerbaijan GE-NEA Georgia National Environmental Agency AZ-MENR Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources GeoStat National Statistics office of Georgia of Azerbaijan AZ-NWS Azerbaijan National Water Strategy GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery AzerStat State Statistical Committee of the Republic GHG Greenhouse Gas of Azerbaijan BAT Best Available Technology GIS Geographic Information System BCM Billion cubic meters GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Society for International Cooperation) BEP Best Environmental Practice GOA Government of Armenia BMO Basin Management Organization GSL Global Sea Level BOD Biological Oxygen Demand GWh Gigawatt hours CCA Causal Chain Analysis HPP Hydropower plant CDM Clean Development Mechanism IDP Internally Displaced Person CENN Caucasus Environmental NGO Network IFAD International Fund
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