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Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 1

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Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 1 Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 1 Introduction The Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report features launch results from the second quarter of 2002 (April-June 2002) and launch forecasts for the third quarter of 2002 (July-September 2002) and the fourth quarter of 2002 (October-December 2002). This report contains information on worldwide commercial, civil, and military orbital space launch events. Projected launches have been identified from open sources, including industry references, company manifests, periodicals, and government sources. Projected launches are subject to change. This report highlights commercial launch activities, classifying commercial launches as one or more of the following: • Internationally-competed launch events (i.e., launch opportunities considered available in principle to competitors in the international launch services market) • Any launches licensed by the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration under U.S. Code Title 49, Section 701, Subsection 9 (previously known as the Commercial Space Launch Act) Contents Second Quarter 2002 Highlights . .2 Vehicle Use . .3 Total Launch Events by Country . .4 Commercial Launch Events by Country . .4 Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events . .5 Second Quarter 2002 Launch Successes vs. Failures . .5 Payload Use . .6 Payload Mass Class . .6 Commercial Launch Trends . .7 Appendix A: Second Quarter 2002 Orbital Launch Events . .A-1 Appendix B: Third Quarter 2002 Projected Orbital Launch Events . .B-1 Appendix C: Fourth Quarter 2002 Projected Orbital Launch Events . .C-1 Cover: A Sea Launch Zenit 3SL carries PanAmSat Corporation’s Galaxy 3C into geosychronous orbit on June 15, 2002, from the Pacific Ocean. Image courtesy of Sea Launch. Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 2 Second Quarter 2002 Highlights Lockheed Martin's Atlas 5, developed under the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, conducted two full “wet" countdown demonstrations at the newly refurbished Launch Pad 41 at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The first Atlas 5 will launch Eutelsat's Hot Bird 6 com- munications satellite in August 2002. Also during the quarter, Boeing rolled out the Common Core Booster of the first Delta 4 vehicle to fly a USAF EELV mission later this year. The first Delta 4 will carry the Eutelsat W5 communications satellite. Also during this quarter, the first three Boeing Delta 4 Heavy launches were finalized, each carrying military payloads. Boeing announced that it does not expect to make any profit from its Delta 4 launches until 2006, when the new booster is expected to gain acceptance from commercial satellite customers. The com- pany also intends to continue operating the old workhorse Delta 2 until 2010. California-based XCOR Aerospace acquired exclusive rights to all technology developed and certain assets acquired by the Rotary Rocket Company. Rotary Rocket was developing the Roton single- stage-to-orbit vehicle until it went out of business in 2000. Brazil and the Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Understanding to use the Alcantara Launch Center to launch Cyclone boosters in a joint venture. The first launch of a Cyclone from Alcantara is expect- ed sometime in 2005. Arianespace announced sales of 807 million euros in 2001, but a loss of 193 million euros resulting from a decrease in demand for commercial launch business. The 2001 partial failure of the Ariane 5G vehicle also contributed to the loss in revenue. Arianespace plans an "aggressive action plan" allow- ing for a "rapid return to the break-even point." Arianespace also initiated a 50-percent cost-cutting plan in an effort to safeguard the company's future. The Sea Launch Company successfully launched PanAmSat's Galaxy 3C communications satellite during the second quarter of 2002. This was the first launch by Sea Launch in over a year. Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 3 Vehicle Use (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 1: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 2: Third Quarter 2002 Total Figure 3: Fourth Quarter 2002 Total Launch Vehicle Use Projected Launch Vehicle Use Total Projected Launch Vehicle Use UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Delta 2 1 Atlas 1 & 2 1 Atlas 1 & 2 2 Shuttle 2 Atlas 5 1 Atlas 5 1 Delta 2 2 Titan 2 1 Delta 2 2 Delta 4 1 CHINA Delta 4 1 Pegasus 1 Long March 1 Pegasus 2 Shuttle 2 Shuttle 1 EUROPE Titan 2 1 Ariane 4 3 CHINA Titan 4 1 Long March 3 ISRAEL BRAZIL Shavit 1 EUROPE VLS 1 Ariane 4 2 MULTINATIONAL CHINA Ariane 5 4 Zenit 3SL 1 Long March 3 INDIA RUSSIA EUROPE PSLV 1 Cosmos 1 Ariane TBA 2 GSLV 1 Molniya 1 INDIA JAPAN Proton 2 PSLV 1 H 2A 1 JAPAN Rockot 1 MULTINATIONAL H 2A 1 Soyuz 2 Zenit 3SL 1 J 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 RUSSIA MULTINATIONAL Cosmos 2 Zenit 3SL 1 Proton 3 RUSSIA Shtil 1 Molniya 1 Soyuz 2 Proton 4 Strela 1 Shtil 1 Soyuz 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total = 17 Total = 30 Total = 30 Figures 1-3 show the total number of orbital launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle that occurred in the second quarter of 2002 and that are projected for the third and fourth quar- ters of 2002. These launches are grouped by the country in which the primary vehicle manufacturer is based. Exceptions to this grouping are launches performed by Sea Launch, which are designated as multinational. Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 4 Total Launch Events by Country (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 4: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 5: Third Quarter 2002 Figure 6: Fourth Quarter 2002 Total Launch Events Total Projected Launch Total Projected Launch by Country Events by Country Events by Country Russia 41% (7) USA USA Russia USA 37% (11) 23% (4) 30% (9) 27% (8) Russia 30% (9) China 6% (1) Multi- Multi- national China national 3% (1) 3% (1) 10% (3) Brazil Europe Japan Japan 3% (1) 18% (3) Israel 3% (1) Europe 7% (2) India China 6% (1) India Multinational 7% (2) 20% (6) 3% (1) Europe 10% (3) 6% (1) 7% (2) Total = 17 Total = 30 Total = 30 Figures 4-6 show all orbital launch events (commercial and government) that occurred in the sec- ond quarter of 2002 and that are projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2002. Commercial Launch Events by Country (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 7: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 8: Third Quarter 2002 Figure 9: Fourth Quarter 2002 Commercial Launch Projected Commercial Projected Commercial Events by Country Launch Events by Launch Events by Country Country Russia Europe Russia USA 40% (2) 40% (2) 23% (3) 31% (4) Multinational USA 25% (1) 25% (1) Multi- national 8% (1) Multinational Europe Europe 20% (1) 38% (5) 50% (2) Total = 5 Total = 13 Total = 4 Figures 7-9 show all commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the second quarter of 2002 and that are projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2002. Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 5 Commercial vs. Non-commercial Launch Events (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 10: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 11: Third Quarter 2002 Figure 12: Fourth Quarter 2002 Commercial vs. Commercial vs. Non- Commercial vs. Non- Non-commercial commercial Projected commercial Projected Launch Events Launch Events Launch Events Commercial Commercial Commercial 13% (4) 29% (5) 43% (13) Non-commercial Non-commercial Non-commercial 71% (12) 57% (17) 87% (26) Total = 17 Total = 30 Total = 30 Figures 10-12 show commercial vs. non-commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the sec- ond quarter of 2002 and that are projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2002. Second Quarter 2002 Launch Successes vs. Failures (April 2002 – June 2002) Figure 13: Total Launch Successes vs. Failures Success 100% (17) Total = 17 Figure 13 shows successful vs. failed orbital launch events that occurred in the second quarter of 2002. Partially-successful orbital launch events are those in which the launch vehicle fails to deploy its payload to the appropriate orbit but the payload is able to reach a useable orbit by using its own propulsion systems. Cases in which the payload is unable to reach a useable orbit or would use all of its fuel to do so are considered fail- ures. Third Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch Report 6 Payload Use (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 14: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 15: Third Quarter 2002 Figure 16: Fourth Quarter 2002 Payload Use Projected Payload Use Projected Payload Use Test Scientific 3% (1) Scientific Rem. Sens. 6% (2) 14% (5) 16% (3) Comm. Rem. Sens. 31% (11) Comm. 11% (4) Rem. Sens. Meteor. 37% (7) 17% (6) 10% (2) Nav. Comm. 9% (3) 44% (15) Meteor. 6% (2) Develop. ISS ISS Nav. 6% (2) 21% (4) 11% (4) 6% (2) Classified Classified Micro. ISS 6% (2) 16% (3) Classified Development Meteor. 6% (2) 9% (3) 3% (1) 6% (2) 6% (2) Total = 19 Total = 34 Total = 35 Figures 14-16 show total payload use (commercial and government), actual for the second quarter of 2002 and that are projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2002. The total number of payloads launched may not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Payload Mass Class (April 2002 – December 2002) Figure 17: Second Quarter 2002 Figure 18: Third Quarter 2002 Figure 19: Fourth Quarter 2002 Payload Mass Class Projected Payload Projected Payload Mass Class Mass Class TBA Heavy Heavy Heavy 6% (2) 10% (2) 6% (2) 6% (2) Small Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Small 21% (4) 32% (6) Small 14% (5) 20% (7) 26% (9) 26% (9) Micro 6% (2) Micro 6% (2) Medium Large 16% (3) 14% (5) Large Medium 15% (5) Medium Large 21% (7) 34% (12) 21% (4) Total = 19 Total = 34 Total = 35 Figures 17-19 show total payloads by mass class (commercial and government), actual for the second quarter of 2002 and projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2002.
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