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Forex Medium-Term Outlook(Jan, 2019)
Forex Medium-Term Outlook 26 December 2018 Mizuho Bank, Ltd. Forex Department 【Contents】 Overview of Outlook ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 2 USD/JPY Outlook –Time for a Change in the Premise 2019 – Vital Points for Global Economy; The Year in Which the True Price of Rate Hikes Emerges ・・・・ ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ ・ P. 3 2019 – Vital Points for Forex Rates; Time for a Change in the Premise・・・・・・・・・・・P. 5 U.S. Monetary Policies Now and Going Forward – The First Step into a New Phase・・・・・P. 6 Overview of Tail Risks – Potentials for the Unexpected in Japan, the United States, and Europe・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ P. 1 0 EUR Outlook – ‒ “Increasing Caution” and “Continuing Confidence” ECB Monetary Policies Now and Going Forward – APP Termination and Outlook Regarding Reinvestment・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 4 Uncertain future Reflected in French “Yellow Vests” Riots – Issues the EU Should Worry About・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 5 Ongoing Shift to a “Post-Merkel” Germany and EU – The EUR 3.0 Era・・・・・・・・・・P. 1 7 Medium-Term Forex Outlook 1 Mizuho Bank Ltd. Overview of Outlook USD/JPY clearly fell in December. In line with the concerns I have consistently expressed in this report, the prices of risky assets have been forced to undergo a correction in response to the increase in U.S. interest rates. The Fed had until recently remained indifferent to this asset price volatility, but it may finally no longer be able to ignore the fluctuations. This is evidenced by the fact that Committee members were forced in December to downgrade their dot plot projections for the entire forecasting period. Market predictions, however, are even more pessimistic than those suggested by the revised dot plot, with some even predicting the end of rate hikes altogether. -
Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs
YELLOW VESTS,CARBON TAX AVERSION, AND BIASED BELIEFS* Thomas Douenne and Adrien Fabre† Abstract This paper seeks to understand how beliefs endogenously form and determine attitudes towards policies. Using a new survey and National households’ survey data, we investigate the case of car- bon taxation in France in the context of the Yellow Vests movement that started against it. We find that French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to all households. However, they also overestimate the negative impact of the scheme on their purchasing power, wrongly think it is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. Using information about the scheme as instrument to identify robust causal effects, our econometric analysis shows that correcting these three biases would suffice to generate majority approval. Yet, we find that people’s beliefs are persistent and their revisions biased towards pessimism so that only a small minority can be convinced. Indeed, if overly pes- simistic beliefs cause tax rejection, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as “tax aversion”. JEL classification: D72; D91; H23; H31; Q58 Keywords: Climate Policy; Carbon tax; Bias; Beliefs; Preferences; Tax aversion *Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Mouez Fodha, Fanny Henriet and Katheline Schubert for their comments and their help to get funding. We also thank Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, Stefano Carattini, Nicolas Jacquemet, Mathias Lé, Linus Mattauch, Joseph Stiglitz, Thierry Verdier, seminar participants at the Paris School of Economics and an anonymous referee of the FAERE Working Paper series. -
Macron, the Yellow Vests and the National Debate. Playing for Time, Not Solving the Political Legitimacy Crisis
NO. 17 MARCH 2019 Introduction Macron, the Yellow Vests and the National Debate Playing for Time, Not Solving the Political Legitimacy Crisis Ronja Kempin and Paweł Tokarski France’s yellow vests (gilets jaunes) are heterogeneous, make contradictory demands, and refuse to give up. Since November 2018 they have been demonstrating for more purchasing power and greater democracy. Having made financial concessions, Presi- dent Emmanuel Macron is now playing for time. He has initiated a “grand national debate”, in which all citizens were called on to voice their opinions concerning future political issues. This debate is likely to help him win the European Parliament (EP) elections in May and facilitate splintering the yellow vests. To avert further protests that could paralyse the country, delegitimise his government and ensure that his presidency fails, Macron needs to improve the way he communicates his reform agenda. Merely playing for time will not make France reformable and governable for this president, any more than it did for his predecessors. The protests never end. Since 17 November are held by the rural lower-middle class, 2018, people wearing high-visibility yel- including craftsmen and women and shop- low vests have been taking to the streets keepers. They can barely earn a living from of France on Saturdays. The protests by their work and are afraid of sliding into the yellow vests, organised nationwide, were poverty. Politically, according the yellow initially directed against the higher tax on vests, they have no voice. They reject the fossil fuels planned by President Macron. support of the trade unions and parties of They quickly evolved into a list of 42 the political left, which previously chan- demands. -
Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion
YELLOW VESTS,PESSIMISTIC BELIEFS, AND CARBON TAX AVERSION* Thomas Douenne and Adrien Fabre† Link to most recent version Abstract Using a representative survey, we find that after the Yellow Vests movement, French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uni- formly to each adult. However, they overestimate their net monetary loss, wrongly think the policy is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. We show that changing people’s beliefs about the tax incidence and effectiveness can largely increase support. Yet, beliefs change little following our informational treatments. Indeed, if overly pessimistic beliefs cause tax rejec- tion, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as “tax aversion”. JEL classification: D72; D91; H23; H31; Q58 Keywords: Climate Policy; Carbon tax; Beliefs; Preferences; Tax aversion *Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Mouez Fodha, Fanny Henriet and Katheline Schubert for their comments and their help to get funding. We also thank Stefano Carattini, Linus Mattauch, Joseph Stiglitz, Thierry Verdier, as well as seminar participants at the Paris School of Economics, Columbia University, University of Pennsylvenia, University of Amsterdam, University of Quebec at Montréal, KU Leuven, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Environmental Defense Fund, EIEE-CMCC (Milan), OECD, OFCE, and conference participants at FSR Climate Annual Conference (Florence), ADRES (Lyon), FAERE (Rennes). We are thankful to Christina Hobbs for the proof- reading. We are grateful to anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions. We acknowledge financial support from the Cepremap, EUR PGSE (ANR-17-EURE-0001) ANR (ANR16-CE03-0011), and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne economics doctoral school (ED 465). -
Moosejaw Market Expansion Into France
Bowling Green State University ScholarWorks@BGSU Honors Projects Honors College Spring 5-17-2019 Moosejaw Market Expansion into France Rachel Renou [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/honorsprojects Part of the Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, E-Commerce Commons, International Business Commons, and the Marketing Commons Repository Citation Renou, Rachel, "Moosejaw Market Expansion into France" (2019). Honors Projects. 439. https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/honorsprojects/439 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College at ScholarWorks@BGSU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Projects by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@BGSU. 1 Moosejaw Market Expansion into France Rachel Renou Honors Project Submitted to the Honors College at Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with UNIVERSITY HONORS DATE Dr. Zhang Management Department; College of Business, Advisor Dr. Gremler Marketing Department; College of Business, Advisor 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….....3 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Background……………….…………………………………………………………………….....5 Country Analysis………………………………………………………………………...…….….8 Political Environment……………………………………………..………………..…..…8 Social/Cultural Environment………………………………………………………….....11 Industry/Business Analysis…………………………………………………………………..….16 Five Forces Analysis……………………………………………………………………….....….22 SWOT Analysis……………………………………………………………………………….....27 -
S Revolution! the Battleplan Against the NWO! by Thomas Eidsaa Last Edited 13.04.2020 a Compilation of Articles, Read Alongside Internet
1 2 The People`s Army`s Revolution! The battleplan against the NWO! By Thomas Eidsaa last edited 13.04.2020 A compilation of articles, read alongside internet. Exposing and defeating the black magic NWO! I wish you a happy revolution! Be careful! We are not fighting an armed conflict but an infowar. ¨Peace love anarchy!¨ PS! My Christian book series are national-conservative and religious conservative. This book is more liberal, dedicated to why we need a revolution and the few ways of actually achieving revolution. Cover and all writing by Thomas Eidsaa copyright 2019. No part in this publication may be used or transmitted in any way without the expressed written consent of the publisher, except for short excerpts for the use in reviews. 3 Other books by Thomas Eidsaa: The GRRRRR book-series, or The Great Romantic Revivalist`s Reformation Revolution Renaissance series, is a an eye-opening Christian series which detail all my research into Christianity, neo- charismatic theology, apologetics, ontological arguments, the problem of evil, eschatology, and conspiracy theories of great importance every Christian needs to understand. It is a work aimed at waking you up and expose the evil you never thought existed. What you don`t know can still kill you. It is a guide, and compendium of important topics relating to the radical, Christian faith in the dangerous, unpredictable 21st century death of Europe. I take the reader on an amazing journey – uniting 1st century Nazarene knowledge with 21st century science, theology and societal problems. I personally believe the knowledge therein will create peace on Earth. -
As Macron Prepares New Repressive Measures, Yellow Vests and Red Unions Strike Together
As Macron Prepares New Repressive Measures, Yellow Vests and Red Unions Strike Together On Tues, Feb. 5, as the Macron government pushed harsh repressive laws against demonstrators through the National Assembly, the Yellow Vests joined with France’s unions for the first time in a day-long, nation-wide “General Strike.” At the very moment when in Paris the lower house was voting to implement Macron’s proposed laws designed to suppress public demonstrations (a legal right protected in both the French Constitution and the U.N. Human Rights Declaration) tens of thousands of their constituents were out in the streets all over the country demonstrating and striking against Macron’s authoritarian, neo-liberal government. The demonstrators’ demands ranged from better salaries and retirement benefits, restoration of public services, equitable tax codes, an end to police brutality, and banning the use of “flash-balls” on demonstrators, to Macron’s resignation and the instauration of participatory democracy. Deaf to the angry people’s legitimate grievances, unwilling to deal with them, Macron has given himself no other choice than to legislate new repressive legal restrictions to suppress their continued free expression. This resort to open repression can only serve to discredit the government’s handling of a crisis largely of its own making, treating a spontaneous social movement among the 99% as if it were a terrorist or fascist conspiracy. The unpopular President’s repressive tactics will inevitably backfire on him. The French are extremely jealous of their liberties, and Macron’s monarchical arrogance can only remind them of how their ancestors dealt with Louis XVI. -
Fuelling Dissent
editorial Fuelling dissent As the yellow vests protests in France continue despite rollback of planned fuel taxes, energy science and policy will have to rethink how they look at social unrest. any countries with ambitious grass roots movement and adds to the specific levels of continuous policy support. nationally determined complexity of fuel tax implementation. In the case of the yellow vests movement Mcontributions for reducing It would also be imprudent to dismiss the though, we have a country that appeared greenhouse gas emissions identify fuel yellow vests protests and their outcome as a to be heading in one direction in terms of taxation both as a tool for curbing fossil fuel one-off event. Just by virtue of the reversal energy and climate policies suddenly being usage and for financing renewable energy of government policy it achieved, the made to alter course through an event whose initiatives. While a number of studies have movement could encourage opponents of timing could not have been predicted even identified disproportionate distributional climate action elsewhere to instigate protests if it could be anticipated. The Fukushima impacts of these taxes on various segments that could end up delegitimizing socially disaster similarly led to extensive policy of society1, there has been continuing costly energy and environment policies, even reversals in Germany and other European support for such measures in Western if there is majority support for them. In any nations in a way that could not have been European countries with high levels of case, the yellow vests movement will likely predicted4. Scenario modelling could environmental awareness and ambitious make governments more wary of pursuing have envisioned pathways with or without national climate targets. -
0X0a I Don't Know Gregor Weichbrodt FROHMANN
0x0a I Don’t Know Gregor Weichbrodt FROHMANN I Don’t Know Gregor Weichbrodt 0x0a Contents I Don’t Know .................................................................4 About This Book .......................................................353 Imprint ........................................................................354 I Don’t Know I’m not well-versed in Literature. Sensibility – what is that? What in God’s name is An Afterword? I haven’t the faintest idea. And concerning Book design, I am fully ignorant. What is ‘A Slipcase’ supposed to mean again, and what the heck is Boriswood? The Canons of page construction – I don’t know what that is. I haven’t got a clue. How am I supposed to make sense of Traditional Chinese bookbinding, and what the hell is an Initial? Containers are a mystery to me. And what about A Post box, and what on earth is The Hollow Nickel Case? An Ammunition box – dunno. Couldn’t tell you. I’m not well-versed in Postal systems. And I don’t know what Bulk mail is or what is supposed to be special about A Catcher pouch. I don’t know what people mean by ‘Bags’. What’s the deal with The Arhuaca mochila, and what is the mystery about A Bin bag? Am I supposed to be familiar with A Carpet bag? How should I know? Cradleboard? Come again? Never heard of it. I have no idea. A Changing bag – never heard of it. I’ve never heard of Carriages. A Dogcart – what does that mean? A Ralli car? Doesn’t ring a bell. I have absolutely no idea. And what the hell is Tandem, and what is the deal with the Mail coach? 4 I don’t know the first thing about Postal system of the United Kingdom. -
Texts’, 237-44, in Remembering Protest in Britain Since 1500
Cohn, S. (2019) The topography of medieval popular protest. Social History, 44(4), pp. 389-411. (doi: 10.1080/03071022.2019.1655884). This is the author’s final accepted version. There may be differences between this version and the published version. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from it. http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/181815/ Deposited on: 14 March 2019 Enlighten – Research publications by members of the University of Glasgow http://eprints.gla.ac.uk The topography of medieval popular protest The topography of revolt has been essential for understanding changes in popular insurgency during the Middle Ages and to distinguish more broadly and globally ‘modern’ revolt from what some historians and social scientists have labelled as ‘pre- modern’. To begin, what constituted popular revolt in the Middle Ages remains ill- defined, and when defined, the notions are often conflicting. Riots, revolts, risings, uprisings, conflicts, disturbances, popular movements, insurgency, and other terms for popular protest are often used interchangeably.1 Other historians, however, have drawn a sharp divide between ‘riot’ or ‘revolt’ or ‘revolution. For Michel Mollat and Philippe Wolff, a revolt is ‘a spontaneous reaction, a reflect of anger or self-defence’, while ‘revolution is something planed and prepared’, and in the Middle Ages, the authors assert, the latter was extremely rare.2 Guy Fourquin went further: ‘rebellion’ was ‘the complete overthrow of a society’s foundations’, and in the Middle Ages this was an impossibility; -
Morocco Colas Plays Key Role in Major Projects
colas.com ROUTES www. Colas Group magazine number 27 - October 2011 En route Morocco Colas plays key role in major projects Piotr Klemensiewicz «Droga» 2010 ROUTES No. 27 – October 2011 www.fondationcolas.com ROUT027_01_UK_bat2.indd 1 10/10/11 06:20 CONTENTS NUMBER 27 – OCTOBER 2011 site-seeing in the picture 04 > From Denmark to Madagascar, via 60 > Meetings, films, awards, signings, sports Croatia and France… A rapid trip around and cultural events... Here are a few images the world to see the Group’s jobsites, work of Group events in France and around the world. in progress and finished projects. horizons en route people 20 > Colas Morocco’s renowned expertise 70 > Pierre Terzian: “Energy savings and solar deployed on major projects. power are the best alternative energy sources.” 28 > An extreme project near the 72 > Yann Arthus-Bertrand: “Thanks to the Bering Sea. mobilization of Colas employees, the ‘On the Road to School’ program will achieve the momentum itineraries it deserves.” 34 > They all do their jobs with enthusiasm sponsorship and have decided to share their daily routine 74 > Togo: a new country for the “On the Road and projects with us. to School” program. 76 > Lengguru: Indonesia’s treasure trove special report of biodiversity. 44 > Tramways: multimodal know-how. 78 > Colas Foundation: Piotr Klemensiewicz. crossroads 50 > Human resources, environment, equipment... A look at recent months Cover photo: Mosaic pillars inside the Mnebhi Palace, of Group life. Marrakech, Morocco. 153361.GRP.indd 2 10/10/11 8:59:13 editorial 03 by Hervé Le Bouc Fostering entrepreneurial spirit Being creative Developing responsibly we are to face the bumps that lie Being creative. -
The Jacquerie of 1358. Phd Thesis
Aiton, Douglas James (2007) 'Shame on him who allows them to live': The Jacquerie of 1358. PhD thesis. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/2734/ Copyright and moral rights for this thesis are retained by the author A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Glasgow Theses Service http://theses.gla.ac.uk/ [email protected] . Shame on him who allows them to live': The Jacquerie of 1358 Douglas James Aiton A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the degree of PhD University of Glasgow Department of History (Medieval Area) March,2007 © Douglas Aiton, 2007 Abstract In the eyes of the chroniclers, the Jacquerie of 1358 was the most important peasant revolt in late medieval France. Yet despite this, the uprising has not generated the quality of scholarship that other revolts from the late medieval period have encouraged, such as the Ciompi of 1378 in Florence or the English Peasants' Revolt of 1381. In popular perception, the Jacquerie remains a violent spasmodic riot typical of the so-called 'pre-industlial revolt', itself a model forwarded thirty years ago and never rigourously examined. Rather than focussing on the complexity within the uprising, recent work has concentrated on whether the rebellion was co-opted by elites (a theory that this thesis will debunk); indeed, the last substantial monograph on the subject was Simeon Luce's Histoire de fa Jacquerie in 1896.