TRANSPORTATION 5 November, 2020 TORG (Buy tp NOK190): 10x P/E, cash equivalent 20% of mcap and 11% FCF yield Lars-Daniel Westby Petter Kongslie Phone : (+47) 24 14 74 16 Phone : (+47) 24 14 74 96 Mobile : (+47) 90 03 96 65 Mobile : (+47) 98 41 1080 E-mail :
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[email protected] 10x P/E, cash equivalent 20% of mcap and 11% FCF yield Reiterate our Buy rec. and target set at NOK190, which is 2021 P/E of 15x + 6% stake in NTS During Covid-19 and the following complete shutdown of society, TORG has demonstrated an impressive resilient business model driven by a combination of being an very important Norwegian infrastructure giant (Ferry, Bus, Air) with leading market position in all its verticals with high share of gross contracts (no risk on price and volume). Where Ferry revenues are down only 12% in 1H20 and Air only -18.7% YoY, Bus revenues is actually up 1% in 1H20 due to star-up in Sweden and new contracts in Norway. Moreover, with cost initiatives implemented, the blended EBITDA margin is set to decline only 1.2pp from 14.1% to 12.9%. The investment case in TORG is therefore highly compelling as we see it at a 2021 P/E of 10x adj. for the 6% ownership stake in NTS. Indeed, with a order backlog of NOK42bn with a duration of 7-8 years, TORG is set for significant revenue growth from a trough in 2020 (CAGR of 16% between 2006-2019).