PCTR Newsletter 5/2015

PCTR / CEVRO INSTITUT Jungmannova 17 / 110 00 Praha 1 / tel.: + 420 221 506 737 email: [email protected] / www.cevroinstitut.cz 0

PCTR Newsletter 5/2015

str. 2 PCTR Bulletin

On 12th May, the PCTR hosted a press conference about the policy paper "The Czech Republic in the Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU: Audit and Perspectives". The policy paper was published with the support of the European Commission Representation in the Czech Republic, and RWE Česká republika.

The press conference was opened by Jan Michal, Representative of the European Commission in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, the event was attended by some of the authors of the publication:

. Petr Nečas, former Prime Minister of the Czech Republic

. Col. prof. Jan Österreicher, coordinator of Security Studies at the CEVRO Institute and Director of the Military Health Institute of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic

. Pavel Štalmach, former First Deputy Minister of Defence and Chairman of the Crisis Staff of the Ministry of Defence

. Alexandr Vondra, Director of the PCTR

Jan Michal spoke not only about issues connected with the creation of a common EU defence policy, but also about the perspectives and potential of a "European army". Then, Alexandr Vondra took the floor. He said: "The Czech Republic should not turn its back on the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), and we should not ignore it. In fact, the their territory was permanently stationed should be involved in these debates and cooperate with countries that have similar interests." He also spoke about the creation of the policy paper itself. However, Mr. Vondra claimed that we do not have any alternative to NATO membership in the current security situation.

Then, Petr Nečas spoke about the recent elections in the United Kingdom and the danger of the UK leaving the EU as a result of the promised referendum on remaining in the EU. "It is important for the EU to have a system of checks and balances against Germany. The only two states able to face Germany are France and the UK. European politicians should be extremely helpful towards David Cameron, help him to change the

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PCTR Newsletter 5/2015 principal agreements and do anything that could keep the UK in the EU.str. A 2common European policy without Great Britain cannot work," he said. His speech was followed by those by Col. prof. Jan Österreicher and the security expert Dr. Pavel Štalmach.

Petr Nečas also spoke about the consequences of the UK’s possible exit from the EU and the fragmentation of the country itself, saying that if Scotland separated, the UK would no longer be the traditional bridge between the US and Europe. At the same time, the importance of the UK would diminish, the country would lose its superpower status and Europe as a whole would lose some of its deterrent potential. Mr. Nečas also recapitulated the developments in the security environment over the past sixty years.

The PTCR organized also an international conference dedicated to cyber security and national defense attended by leading experts from Europe and Israel. The event took place on May 28 in the atrium of the CEVRO Institute. The main partners of the conference were IBM Czech Republic and RWE Česká republika. The PCTR director Alexander Vondra opened the conference. The first speaker was General Petr Pavel, former Chief of Staff of the Army and elected Chairman of the NATO Military Committee. Gen. Pavel began his speech with the emergence of hybrid war and then devoted himself extensively to the phenomenon of "cyber war". Gen. Petr Pavel, among other things, said that NATO is debating whether a cyber-attack is to be considered as a reason for the activation of Art. 5 of NATO's Washington Treaty. In other words if it can be seen as equal to a conventional attack.

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Following that, Daniel Koštoval, the Deputy Minister of Defense, spoke not only about the cyber str. 2 security on the Alliance level, but also on the national level. Daniel Koštoval said that it is necessary to ensure the protection of the population in cooperation with private sector. Mr. Koštoval claimed that the Czech Republic may soon become one of the leaders in this field. Another speaker, Dušan Navratil (the Director of the National Security Office), said that the Czech Republic is still strengthening its ability to defend itself against cyber-attacks and he also added that private sector and public sector have to work closely together. The last speaker of the first part of the program was Bruce Wynn (Air Commodore - ret., Cyber Advisor and Consultant). He focused on cyber security in private sector, but also its relationship to public sector. Furthermore, he stated that it is necessary in this field to think like a criminal would that means in context - it is necessary to be ready = who is prepared, is not surprised. He spoke about problems associated with the alienation of personal data and cooperation between London and New York police. After the first break, another speech followed, this time by Dmitry Adamski from Israeli IDC in Herzliya. He dealt with the emergence of potential Russian hybrid and Information Warfare and compared it with NATO member states. D. Adamski, among other things, said that we are at the beginning of a new era in which war will be fought in cyberspace, and all powers, including Russia, are trying to learn how to use this new capability. Prof. Šarunas Liekis from Vilnius University further developed Adamski's speech as he spoke about specific threats from Russia to the Baltic States. He further noted that the major IT pioneer in the Baltics is Estonia, where residents literally live under the supervision of "big brother". The last speaker of the second part of the program was Daniel Bagge from the Czech National Security Office, who spoke about the challenges that the Czech Republic is facing. The last panel began with John Palfreyman from IBM, who spoke about the so-called Cyber-crime and explained what are the latest threats we face and how they evolved. The penultimate speaker was Aleš Špidla, who spoke about the vulnerability of ISCS / SCADA systems, which are used in strategic and industrial sectors. He stated that the aim of the attackers is to knock out strategic

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PCTR Newsletter 5/2015 targets and cause destruction, damage or even loss of lives, and disruption of order (it is sufficient for str. 2 the attacker to, for example, insert deliberately erroneous data into the information chain). The last speaker was Ofir Hason from the Israeli CyberGym, who focused on cyber warfare from the perspective of the Israelis. According to Mr. Hason, important are the role of secret services and cooperation between public and private sectors, which in practice may even collaborate with the secret service (in the case of CyberGym - Shin Bet). He also added that the weakest link in the chain is human factor. Finally, he said that an attack on critical infrastructure has to always be conducted by coordinated groups (perhaps a state) - it is not to be expected from individuals. The conference concluded with a final word by the Chairman of the Board of the CEVRO Institute, Ivan Langer. We also thank for support CyberGym, Vytautas Magnus University in Vilnius and the International Institute for Counter-Terorrism (ICT) at the university IDC Herzliya. Besides the huge interest when it was not possible due to the limited capacity to satisfy all candidates published a series of responses at the conference in the media - e.g.: . České noviny . Aktuálně.cz . Eurozprávy . Týden . ITBis.cz . Parlamentní Listy . The Post

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Events in Euro - Atlantic relationsstr. 2

(May 2015)

On 3rd May, the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published information about NATO seeking the re-establishment of a red line between NATO and Russia. The "red phone" would serve to avoid misunderstandings in the event of crisis scenarios. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/nato-richtet-direkten-draht-zum-russischen- militaer-ein-13571143.html

On 4th May, anti-submarine exercise Dynamics Mongoose 2015 started off the Norwegian coast. In addition to ten NATO member countries, the Kingdom of Sweden participated. The exercise focused on anti-submarine warfare and was carried out under the command of COMSUBNATO (Common Submarine Command NATO) and the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2. The commander of the exercise was US Rear Admiral Brad Williamson. http://navaltoday.com/2015/05/04/dynamic-mongoose-2015-begins/

On 4th May, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that in 2016, a civilian-led mission "Enduring Partnership" will begin in Afghanistan. Although led by civilians, the mission will also have a military part. The mission, which aims to help the legitimate Afghan government fight the Taliban movement, will begin this autumn. "The next phase of the Alliance's presence will be long-term and will focus on specific security and development needs of Afghanistan," said Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani. http://www.natoaktual.cz/na_media.aspx?r=na_media&c=A150515_002656_na_media_m02

Army General Petr Pavel resigned as Chief of Staff. On the last day of April, he published a personal message on the website of the Ministry of Defense, looking back at his tenure as Chief of Staff, and reflecting on his future function as Chairman of NATO's Military Committee. General Pavel handed over his duties to his successor, General Josef Bečvář, on 4th May 2015, during a ceremony at Prague's Vítkov Memorial. http://www.rozhlas.cz/zpravy/politika/_zprava/josef-becvar-je-novym-nacelnikem-generalniho-stabu- vystridal-petra-pavla--1485728, http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/general-pavel:-stat-v-cele-armady-byla-pro- mne-velka-zkusenost-109413/

Grand celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II took place across the Czech Republic. The first to celebrate was the city of Ostrava, where people reminded the battle of Ostrava, fought by soldiers of the 1st Czechoslovak Independent Armoured Brigade Group in the USSR under the command of later President General Ludvík Svoboda, and the Soviet troops of the 4th Ukrainian Front. The audience could see a reconstruction of the battle with period military equipment and even a replica of the elegant Soviet Yak-3 – albeit somewhat different in scale from the original aircraft. Traditionally, spectacular celebrations were also organized in Pilsen, where a monument to General Patton was unveiled as part of the liberation festivities (1st - 6th May 2015). Both events – in Ostrava and Pilsen – were attended by the last surviving veterans of WWII battles – both Czech and American. It is not true that the role of the Red Army in the liberation of has been neglected, as some people say. http://www.mocr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/velkolepe-oslavy-dnu--ktere-prinesly- ostrave-svobodu-109472/

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On 7th May, it was announced that the United States have refused to continue to guarantee the safety str. 2 of airspace over Afghanistan. This land could then become a no-fly zone, which would complicate civilian air transport between the European and Asian continents. The United States have justified its decision by the fact that the Afghan government refuses to take responsibility for airspace control. http://www.natoaktual.cz/usa-skonci-s-monitoringem-vzdusneho-prostoru-nad-afghanistanem-pxc- /na_media.aspx?c=A150507_115218_na_media_m02

Europe is aware of an increasing number of immigrants sailing to Europe from North Africa. The immigrants are transported to Europe on board substandard smuggler ships, which very often capsize, and people lose their lives. European countries are therefore considering the use of military force against smuggling shelters and their ships before they can get illegal immigrants on board. This proposal is supported by the UK and Italy, which even offers the use of its network of informants in Libya, and its reconnaissance drones. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/05/02/europe-weighs- bombing-migrant-boats/26639047/

On 8th May, a national holiday, a commemorative ceremony was held on the Vítkov Hill to mark the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. The event was attended by President Miloš Zeman. During the ceremony, JAS-39C "Gripen" fighters and Mi-24 "Hind" helicopters flew over Prague. In his speech, the President thanked surviving veterans of World War II. Then, at the Prague Castle, three of them – Alexandr Beer, Jaroslav Klemeš and Mikuláš Končický – were promoted to the rank of lieutenant general. General Končický unfortunately could not attend the ceremony because of his health condition. Therefore, his promotion certificate was handed to him a week later, on 15th May 2015, at the regional headquarters in Ostrava. In addition, soldiers in active service were also promoted to the rank of general. http://domaci.ihned.cz/c1-63980560-pieta-na-vitkove-pripomnela-konec-valky-minutou-ticha-i- preletem-gripenu, http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/prezident-republiky- jmenoval-generaly--109847/, http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/valecny- veteran-mikulas-koncicky-prevzal-jmenovaci-dekret-do-hodnosti-generalporucika-110250/

On 9th May, a spectacular military parade was held in Moscow to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II (which is called the "Great Patriotic War" in Russia). Besides Russian representatives, the presidents of the People's Republic of China and India took part. Soldiers of these two superpowers also marched along with Russian troops. Unlike the 2010 parade, soldiers of the victorious powers and today’s NATO member states – Britain, France and the United States – did not participate. New types of military equipment were presented during the military parade, including the new T-14 "Armata" tank and the new "Yars" intercontinental strategic missiles (ICBM). In addition, historic T-34/85 tanks and Russian war veterans could be seen. http://www.tyden.cz/rubriky/zahranici/rusko-a-okoli/foto-megaprehlidka-v-moskve-putin-je-to-den- sily-ruska_342305.html?imgOffset=0#thumbs

On 9th May, Czech President Miloš Zeman had a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The topics included not only Czech-Russian relations on the political and trade level, but also the situation in Ukraine. President Putin observed that the relations between the Czech Republic and Russia were going through various stages. Before the meeting, the Czech president bowed to the memorial to Soviet soldiers who died in the "Great Patriotic War", and laid a symbolic bouquet of flowers on the grave of an unknown soldier at the Alexander Park, near the Kremlin wall. However, Miloš Zeman did not attend the grand military parade on "Victory Day".

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PCTR Newsletter 5/2015 http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/zeman-v-moskve-uctil-pamatku-padlych-sovetskych- str. 2 vojaku/1213801

Despite pre-election polls, the Conservative Party has become the clear winner of the British parliamentary elections. The current Prime Minister David Cameron retained his mandate for another term and, on 8th May, Queen Elizabeth II charged him with forming a new British government. Cameron also confirmed his intention to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership. Several days later, precisely on 13th May, he confirmed that the plebiscite may not take place in 2017, as reported previously, but already next year - in 2016. The newly elected British Prime Minister also received congratulations from US President Barack Obama, who said, among other things, that the Anglo- American "special relationship" would continue developing in the future. http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099, http://www.svobodnymonitor.cz/politika/britanie-chce-rozhodnout-o-svem-vystoupeni-z-eu-v-roce- 2016-potvrdil-cameron/, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/05/08/readout-president- s-call-prime-minister-david-cameron-united-kingdom

On 10th May, German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel, during her visit to the Russian capital Moscow, roundly criticized last year's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea by the Russian Federation. She even said that this act threatens the established European orders and has heavily damaged German- Russian relations. She also commented very sharply on the situation in Eastern Ukraine and expressed concerns over the failure of the Minsk armistice agreement (II.). However, it is increasingly necessary, according to the German Chancellor, to solve the conflict "through diplomatic channels". http://www.novinky.cz/zahranicni/evropa/369306-merkelova-v-moskve-mluvila-tak-tvrde-ze-to- putinovi-tlumocnici-radeji-neprelozili.html

On 12th May, a bilateral meeting between the US and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs – John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov – was held in Sochi, Russia. Both politicians discussed not only future sanctions against Russia, which, according to Lavrov, will not solve anything, but also the situation in Eastern Ukraine. That evening, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement declaring that Moscow is willing to engage in constructive cooperation with Washington. However, Russia does not intend to give up its national interests. John Kerry assured his Russian counterpart that the duration of sanctions would depend on the fulfilment of the Minsk agreement. Then, he was also received by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. http://www.ceteka.cz/tema/zpravy/sankce-podle-lavrova-nikam-nevedou-kerry-naleha-na-plneni- dohod/1215027

Despite the recent not-so-diplomatic statements of Turkish President Erdogan, a NATO meeting was held in Turkey on 12th May. Francis Ricciardone, the US representative to the Atlantic Council, described the relations between Turkey and other allies, including the United States, as "close and fruitful". However, he warned that the words of the Turkish head of state, who had described military action against ISIS as desire for oil and conspiracy to dominate his country (Turkey), should not be taken lightly. http://www.natoaktual.cz/na_media.aspx?r=na_media&c=A150513_143319_na_media_m02

France is willing to pay EUR 785 million in compensation for the cancelled contract relating to the sale of two French Mistral ships to Russia, which was stopped because of the Ukraine crisis. According to Vladimir Putin, Russia does not need to pay any penalties, but is going to ask its money back. Putin added that Russia planned to purchase the ships because it wanted to help French shipyards. Vladimir

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Komoyedov, a member of the Russian Duma and former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, said that str. 2 it is essential to seek EUR 1.5 billion in compensation from France, not only for the breach of the contract, but for all associated costs. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2015/05/15/report-france-offers-russia-785m-to-ditch- warship-deal/27371669/

On 21st May, the Czech Minister of Defense Martin Stropnický promised, at the Exhibition of Defence Technology in (IDET), that the Czech army would receive major investments in armaments and equipment, which are intended to improve its combat readiness. http://www.natoaktual.cz/armada-poroste-tvrdi-stropnicky-doh- /na_zpravy.aspx?c=A150522_192151_na_zpravy_m00

The Czech Air Force commemorated ten years of using the JAS-39 “Gripen” fighters in the Czech Republic. Over this period, Czech pilots have made around 20,000 flight hours on the Gripens, without a single loss. On 22nd May, it was announced that the fighters would participate in the protection of Iceland in the summer (from 20th July to 20th August), replacing the Canadian Air Force, which is fully engaged in strikes against ISIS. Five Czech fighters will be deployed. The Czech pilots already have experience with defending Iceland's sovereignty (they fulfilled the same role last year). http://www.natoaktual.cz/cesi-s-gripeny-znovu-ohlidaji-island-dvl- /na_zpravy.aspx?c=A150523_001836_na_zpravy_m00

On 24th May, Andrzej Duda won the presidential election and became the new president of the Republic of Poland. The previous head of state, Bronislaw Komorowski, admitted defeat. Duda won with an absolute majority of 53% of the votes; the election turnout was 56.1%. http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/svet/312669-komorowski-priznal-porazku-polskym-prezidentem-je- andrzej-duda/

On 25th May, the President of the United States, Barack Obama, visited the Arlington National Cemetery to commemorate fallen soldiers. It is a long-standing, respected tradition for the president, as the supreme commander, to honour Americans who died in combat. https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/05/25/memorial-day-2015-look-ahead-and-look-back

On 26th May, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Barack Obama met in the Oval Office of the White House. Both politicians discussed burning current issues, such as the Ukraine crisis, and the way forward for the alliance in terms of defense capabilities, training, etc. They also spoke about the close relations between the US and its European allies. http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=128911

The Baltic States are considering setting up their own joint air defense, for fear of a hypothetical attack from the Russian Federation. This move is not about the purchase of supersonic aircraft and creation of a "single sky", but about possible midrange antiaircraft systems. This was stated during a meeting of defense ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on 29th May. Moreover, the Baltic States seek to ensure the permanent deployment of "around 4,000 Allied soldiers" in their territory, including a "superfast response” force. The protection of Baltic air will continue to be provided by Allied planes from countries possessing supersonic fighter aircraft – including the Czech JAS-39 "Gripen". http://www.natoaktual.cz/pobalti-chce-protiletadlovou-obranu-dv5- /na_zpravy.aspx?c=A150603_123347_na_zpravy_m00

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After many decades, the relations between the traditional rivals - the Republic of Cuba and the United str. 2 States – have finally improved. Both countries follow diplomatic relations, and on 29th May, the U.S. President Barack Obama advised the Congress that Cuba had been withdrawn from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. States on the list cannot, for example, be supplied with weapons, or have comprehensive diplomatic relations (if such relations exist at all). Cuba also promised to release those who had fled to Cuba to avoid prosecution for offenses in the US. http://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-officially-removed-from-u-s-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-list- 1432913160

Relations between the EU and the Russian Federation have become tenser after Russia published, on 30th May, a list of "persona non grata" – i.e. people who cannot enter its territory at least until 2019. Czechs on the list are Karel Schwarzenberg, Štefan Füle, Marek Ženíšek and Jaromír Štětina. The Czech Foreign Minister Lubomír Zaorálek sharply criticized this move during a meeting with the Russian Ambassador to the Czech Republic, Sergei Kiselyov. http://svobodneforum.cz/rusko-zakazalo-vstup-schwarzenbergovi-fulemu-ci-stetinovi/, http://domaci.ihned.cz/c1-64098010-odmitam-takove-zachazeni-s-ceskymi-obcany-zkritizoval- zaoralek-seznam-pred-ruskym-velvyslancem

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