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China-Taiwan Relations: the Persistent Deadlock Amid Cycles of Stability and Change

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China-Taiwan Relations: the Persistent Deadlock Amid Cycles of Stability and Change The College of Wooster Libraries Open Works Senior Independent Study Theses 2016 China-Taiwan Relations: The eP rsistent Deadlock Amid Cycles of Stability and Change Jordan E. Shremshock College of Wooster, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://openworks.wooster.edu/independentstudy Recommended Citation Shremshock, Jordan E., "China-Taiwan Relations: The eP rsistent Deadlock Amid Cycles of Stability and Change" (2016). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 7046. https://openworks.wooster.edu/independentstudy/7046 This Senior Independent Study Thesis Exemplar is brought to you by Open Works, a service of The oC llege of Wooster Libraries. It has been accepted for inclusion in Senior Independent Study Theses by an authorized administrator of Open Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. © Copyright 2016 Jordan E. Shremshock CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS: THE PERSISTENT DEADLOCK AMID CYCLES OF STABILITY AND CHANGE By Jordan Shremshock An Independent Study Thesis submitted to the Department of International Relations at the College of Wooster March, 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of I.S. Thesis Advisor: Dr. Jeffrey Lantis Second Reader: Dr. Kent Kille 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank you to my best friend Liz Kittner for constantly helping me see my own worth and potential. Without her encouragement, this process might have killed me. Thank you to my parents, Scott and Gloria Shremshock. Their support and pep talks at all hours kept me grounded and moving forward. Thank you to my support network of friends for listening to my problems, I.S. related and otherwise, and helped me work through them. Thank you to Lynette Mattson for being a persistent force of positivity in my life. Finally, thank you to Dr. Jeffrey Lantis for his constant support and advice. 2 ABSTRACT Why does the deadlock that has defined China-Taiwan relations for 65 years persist despite periods of extreme tension and change? I use the Model of Punctuated Equilibrium from evolutionary biology as a framework to answer this question. The PE Model is comprised of two parts, positive and negative feedback. A positive feedback mechanism, or punctuation, is a self-reinforcing process in which rapid change occurs as a result of attention-shift and mimicking. A negative feedback cycle, or equilibrium, is a self-correcting mechanism, which equalizes any outside force to create a stable output. According to this model, if China and Taiwan increase their disruptive actions, then the United States will increase its influence to promote stability, resulting in a lower level of conflict. To test my hypothesis, I implement a theory-guided case study. My first case encompasses the positive feedback cycle formed by the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises. The second case discusses the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis and the 1999 Taiwan Strait Confrontation. The goal of this study is to explore the rise of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the resultant level of negative feedback that stabilizes the situation until the political deadlock is reinstated. 为什么在这六十五年来，中国和台湾的关系还在弄僵？ 我用进化生物学的 Model of Punctuated Equilibrium 来回答这个问题。这 PE Model 由两部分做成：正反馈 和负反馈。这反馈是一个换得快的过程。这个过程要经过注意力转移和模仿。 负反馈 是一个自动教程的机制。 这个机制均衡任何外力来创造一个稳定的输出。按照这个模 型，如果中国和台湾增加他们的破坏性等，美国就会增加他的影响力和提高稳定性， 导致减少他们冲突。 为了测试我的假设我实现了一个理论制造的个案研究。 我的第一 个案例包含了台湾第一和第二次台海危机。 我的第二个案例讨论了第三次台海危机和 1999 年台湾海峡对峙。我的研究目的是来了解台海的冲突和重建台湾和中国的关系。 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................6 CHAPTER TWO: THEORY AND LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................9 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW ................................................................................................ 9 CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS: PREDICTING UNIFICATION OR DEADLOCK ...... 15 UNIFICATION ............................................................................................................... 15 DEADLOCK ................................................................................................................... 17 THE PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRUM MODEL ................................................................ 21 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ...................................................................................... 21 THE STRUGGLE TOWARD SOCIAL SCIENCE ....................................................... 23 POLITICAL SCIENCE .................................................................................................. 27 APPLICATION OF THE PE MODEL........................................................................... 28 PE MODEL MEETS CROSS STRAIT RELATIONS ................................................... 32 IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY ...................................................................... 34 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY .................................36 HYPOTHESIS OF PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM ....................................................... 36 INDEPENDENT VARIABLE ........................................................................................ 37 INTERVENING VARIABLE ........................................................................................ 39 DEPENDENT VARIABLE ............................................................................................ 42 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ................................................................................. 43 CASE SELECTION............................................................................................................ 45 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 48 CHAPTER FOUR CASE 1: TENSIONS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT 1950-1962 ...............49 INDEPENDENT AND INTERVENING VARIABLES .................................................... 50 SEPTEMBER 3, 1952 – SEPTEMBER 2, 1954 (IV2- & IntV2-) ................................. 50 SEPTEMBER 3, 1954 – MAY 1, 1955 (IVD1 &IntVD1) ............................................. 54 MAY 2, 1955 – AUGUST 22, 1958 (IVD2 & IntVD2) ................................................. 60 AUGUST 23, 1958 – OCTOBER 6, 1958 (IVD3 & IntVD3) ........................................ 65 OCTOBER 7, 1958-OCTOBER 7, 1960 (IVD2+ & InvtVD2+) ................................... 73 DEPENDENT VARIABLE ................................................................................................ 75 OCTOBER 8, 1960-OCTOBER 8, 1962 (DV2+) .......................................................... 75 SEPTEMBER 3, 1950-SEPTEMBER 2, 1952 (DV2-) .................................................. 77 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 79 CHAPTER FIVE: CASE 2 THE TAIWAN STRAIT 1991-2004 ...........................................80 INDEPENDENT AND INTERVENING VARIABLES .................................................... 82 JUNE 9, 1993 – JUNE 8, 1995 (IV2- & IntV2-) ............................................................ 82 JULY 21, 1995 – MARCH 23, 1996 (IVD1 & IntVD1) ................................................ 91 MARCH 24, 1996 – JULY 8, 1999 (IVD2 & IntVD2) .................................................. 93 JULY 9, 1999-MAY 29, 2000 (IVD3 & IntVD3) ........................................................ 110 MAY 30, 2000 – MAY 30, 2002 (IV2+ & IntV2+) ..................................................... 118 DEPENDENT VARIABLE MAY 31, 2002 – MAY 30, 2004 (DV2+) .......................... 124 JUNE 9, 1991 – JUNE 8, 1993 (DV2-) ........................................................................ 137 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 144 CHAPTER SIX: ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION ...........................................................145 ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................... 146 4 INDEPENDENT VARIABLE ...................................................................................... 146 INTERVENING VARIABLE ...................................................................................... 154 DEPENDENT VARIABLE .......................................................................................... 157 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................. 160 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH ....................................................................... 161 FINDINGS .................................................................................................................... 163 LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................. 164 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 167 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................168 5 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Map of the Taiwan Strait ...................................................................................... 10 Figure 3.1: Primary Hypothesis .............................................................................................. 36 Figure 3.2: Timeframes of the Independent Variable ............................................................. 37 Figure 3.3: Timeframes for the Intervening Variable
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