Working with the Winds of Change

Toward Strategies for Responding to the Risks Associated with Climate Change and other Hazards

Second Edition

Editors Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit

Contributors and their Institutions:

Sara Ahmed Shashikant Chopde Ajaya Dixit, Anil Pokhrel and Deeb Raj Rai S. Janakarajan Fawad Khan Institute for Social and Winrock International India Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal Madras Institute of Institute for Social and Environmental Environmental Transition -India Development Studies Transition-Pakistan

Marcus Moench Daanish Mustafa Madhukar Upadhya, Kanchan Mani Dixit Shiraz A. Wajih and Amit Kumar and Sarah Opitz-Stapleton King’s College London and Madav Devkota Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group Institute for Social and Environmental Transition- Nepal Water Conservation Foundation International © Copyright, 2007

ProVention Consortium; Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International; Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal

This publication is made possible by the support of the ProVention Consortium. The research programme received support from IDRC, DFID and NOAA.

Any part of this publication may be cited, copied, translated into other languages or adapted to meet local needs without prior permission from ProVention Consortium, ISET-International and ISET-Nepal provided that the source is clearly stated.

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this book are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of those supporting the project.

Cover photo: Breached Rohini River embankment at Manoharchak Uttar Pradesh; 2007 Monsoon Flood. Photo by A. Pokhrel.

ISBN: ...... First Edition: 1,000 September, 2007. Second Edition: 1,000 December, 2007

Published by: ProVention Consortium, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International and Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal.

DESIGN AND TYPESETTING Digiscan Pre-press, Kathmandu, Nepal.

PRINTED AT Format Printing Press, Kathmandu, Nepal. WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Acknowledgements VS. POLICY EXPERIENCE DISASTER

This book provides initial insights from an ongoing programme on disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in South Asia. The study is being undertaken in the Nepal Tarai, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, coastal Tamilnadu and coastal Gujarat of India, and the Lai Basin and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan. The programme is financed by the International Development Research Center (IDRC), the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) and the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). IDRC provided support for the field studies in Nepal and India. The support from the ProVention Consortium has helped in furthering the analysis and the development of this publication. Their support is gratefully acknowledged.

The core group of partners undertaking fieldwork and writing chapters included (in alphabetical order): Sara Ahmed, ISET Associate and founder of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-India; Nafisa Barot of Utthan; Shashikant Chopde and Sunandan Tiwari of Winrock International India; Ajaya Dixit, Dipak Gyawali and Anil Pokhrel from the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal; Marcus Moench and Sarah Opitz-Stapleton from the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition- International; Syed Ayub Qutub from PIEDAR, Pakistan; Shiraz A. Wajih of Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group; Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit from Nepal Water Conservation Foundation-Kathmandu; S. Janakarajan from Madras Institute of Development Studies; Daanish Mustafa from King’s College London; Fawad Khan from the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Pakistan.

Other contributors included Sonam Bennett-Vasseux from the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International who made substantive contributions to the project through extensive literature searches, analysis of the data collected and editing. Elisabeth Caspari from Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International edited major sections and cross-checked key details. Bruno Haghebaert from ProVention provided valuable comments and suggestions on early drafts of all the chapters.

Numerous organisations and individuals have contributed in a substantive way to the successful completion of this book. In India, Nepal and Pakistan many dedicated field staff and individuals in government and NGOs as well as the local communities with whom they interacted, provided input.

DIGI SCAN in Kathmandu did the layout and design of this book. We also thank Surendra Pradhananga for drawing the sketches.

iii „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Study Sites in India, Nepal and Pakistan

Muzaffarabad

DISASTER EXPERIENCE VS. POLICY Lai Basin CHINA

PAKISTAN NEPAL Nawalparasi Rautahat

Gorakhpur

INDIA Coastal Gujarat

Coastal Tamilnadu

iv WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Contents VS. POLICY EXPERIENCE DISASTER

1 Understanding the Winds of Change 1-12 Introduction 2 Key Issues 6 Key Insights 10 Direct Versus Systemic Points of Entry for Supporting Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation 10 Methods for Shared Learning 11 Ways Forward 12

Adapting to Climate Change and the Risks Associated with 2 other Natural Hazards: Methods for Moving from Concepts to Action 13-48 The Challenge 14 Objectives 17 Conceptual Foundations 18 Adaptation 18 Disaster Risk Reduction 21 Fragility 23 Resilience – Hard and Soft Concepts 24 Investing in Change – What do Concepts Mean for Strategy? 26 Costs and Benefits of Investing in DRR and Adaptation 26 Identifying Points of Entry 32 Moving from Concepts to Action 41 A Systematic Process 41 Scoping 42 Building Common Understanding 43 Structured Review of Identified Actions 44 Governance of the Process 45 Conclusions 47 Bibliography 48

3 Climate Change and South Asian Impacts 49-72 Introduction 50 The Indian Monsoon and its Physical Mechanisms 52 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 53 The Role of the Indian Ocean 55 Eurasian Snow Cover and Land Surface Temperature 56 Madden-Julian Oscillation 57 Global Warming: Predictions based on Numerical and Statistical Models 58 Numerical Methods 58 Statistical Methods 60 Potential Impacts of Global Warming on India 62 Observed Changes to the Climate Systems and Patterns Over India 62 Projected Changes throughout India and at Case Sites 63 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Social Systems and Livelihoods 65 Summary 68 Bibliography 70

v „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Understanding Vulnerability, Building Capacity: 4 Concepts, Approaches and Insights 73-94 Introduction: Why Vulnerability? 74 Defining Vulnerability 74 Aspects of Vulnerability 75 Aspects of Social Vulnerability in South Asia 77 Poverty and Vulnerability 77 Gender and Vulnerability 78 Caste and Vulnerability 79 The Social Construction of Vulnerability 80 Capacities and Capabilities: the Other Side of Vulnerability 82 Operationalizing Vulnerability: the Problem of Measurement 83 The Indicator Approach: Quantifying Vulnerability? 84 Qualitative Narratives 87

DISASTER EXPERIENCE VS. POLICY Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (PVCA) 89 Emerging Field Insights on Differential Vulnerability and Capacities 91 Bibliography 94

Catalysing Adaptation to Disaster Risks and Climate Change: 5 The Shared Learning Dialogue Process 95-118 The Need 96 A Brief History 97 Organisational Logics & the Implications of History 99 Toward Methodological Approaches for Shared Learning 101 The Conceptual Origin 101 Conceptual Evolution 102 Practical Examples from Cases – Translating Climate Information into Local Contexts 103 The Climate Change Context 103 Shared Learning Dialogues 103 The Nepal Case 105 The Uttar Pradesh case 108 The Pakistan Case 109 The Tamilnadu Case 111 Key Issues in the Current SLD Process from Tamilnadu 114 Summary of Experiences and Ways Forward 117 6 Flood Disaster Impacts and Responses in Nepal Tarai’s Marginalised Basins 119-158 Case Study Guidance Note 120 The Larger Context 124 Study VDCs 129 Nature of Hazard 130 Natural and Social Characteristics of the VDCs Studied 134 Natural Characteristics 134 Social Characteristics 137 Assessing Context of Flooding 139 Ethno-History and Trend Analysis 139 Vulnerability Assessment 146 Nature of Vulnerability 147 Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) 148 Adaptation Strategies Identified 151 Conclusions 152 Hydro-meteorology 152 Disasters as Opportunities 153 Adaptive Approach 154 In the End 155 Bibliography 157

vi WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

7 Peripheral Heartland: Floods in Eastern Uttar Pradesh 159-192 VS. POLICY EXPERIENCE DISASTER Case Study Guidance Note 160 Introduction 164 Peripheral Heartland 165 The Study Villages 167 Manoharchak 167 Lakshmipur 167 Sonatikar 168 Methodology and Tools Used 169 Livelihoods 169 Population and Migration 169 Access to Services 170 Education Services 170 Health Services 171 Agriculture Services 171 Food Deficiency Months, Coping Strategies and Livelihoods 171 Role of Formal Institutions 172 Natural and Climate Hazards 172 Patterns of Vulnerability 173 Changing Nature of Vulnerability 173 Shared Learning Dialogue 176 Key points from the SLDs for Strategies 176 Who is Vulnerable? 178 Who should one Work With? 179 Pilot Activities 182 Summary of Key Insights and Conclusions 183 Weaknesses of the Methods and Concepts 183 Appendix 1 184 Appendix 2 187

Navigating the Contours of the Pakistani Hazardscape: 8 Disaster Experience versus Policy 193-234 Case Study Guidance Note 194 Introduction 198 Conceptual Approach 200 Shared Learning Dialogue and Cognate Methodologies 202 Muzaffarabad Case Study 205 Background 205 Natural and Climate Hazards 207 Patterns of Vulnerability 209 Ongoing and Prospective Strategies for DRR 212 Lai Flood Basin Case Study 215 Background 215 Natural and Climate hazards 217 Patterns of Vulnerability 218 Ongoing and Prospective Strategies for DRR 220 Institutional SLDs on the Two Case Studies 222 Federal, Provincial and Local Government Agencies 222 Civil Society 227 Multi-lateral Agencies 229 Summary of Insights from Institutional SLDs 230 Muzaffarabad 230 Lai Basin 230 Conclusions 233 Bibliography 234 vii „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Challenges and Prospects for Adaptation: 9 Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Coastal Tamilnadu 235-270 Case Study Guidance Note 236 Introduction 238 Objective 239 Concepts and Key Issues 239 Tamilnadu: Coastal Area, Ecosystems and Vulnerability 241 Study Sites 243 Shared Learning Dialogue and Vulnerability Analysis 249 Key Issues 251 District Level SLD 251 State Level SLD 252 Analysis of SLD Results 254 DISASTER EXPERIENCE VS. POLICY Key Points of Vulnerability 255 Strategies Identified 259 Fisher Community 259 Strengthening Village Level Organisations 260 Farming Communities in Eco-Systems II and III 261 Strategies Identified 262 Implementation Schemes and Strategies Identified in the SLD Process 265 Cost-Benefit Ranking of Response Strategies 267 Conclusions 267 Appendix 1 268 Bibliography 270

When Realities Shift: 10 Responding to floods and the challenge of climate change in Ganga Basin 271-285 The Challenge 272 Objectives and Purpose 273 Flooding in the Ganga Plain 274 The Structure and Hydrology of the Ganga Basin 276 The Evolution of Conventional Management Approaches 279 Using Flood to Advantage: Emerging global flood management trends 280 Specific Opportunities for Reducing Risks in the Ganga Basin 281 Summary 283 Bibliography 285

viii CHAPTER1

Understanding the Winds of Change

Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

flow projections in order to design Introduction control structures may now be asking the wrong question. Control has, perhaps always, been an ephemeral and unrealistic goal. Living with uncertainty and change may be more realistic, but the question is how?

The challenges posed by translating global projections of climate change or the need for disaster risk reduction into We live in a world increasingly courses of action that can be dominated by transformative change implemented at local levels are complex. processes: stories of disasters pervade In the past, millions of dollars were the daily news and the recent IPCC invested in climate research, primarily in

UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE summary report (2007) highlighted the developed countries. This research has fundamental threat to society posed by yielded significant dividends: a climate change. Adaptation and knowledge base that conclusively The challenges posed disaster risk reduction, previously demonstrates that climate systems are by translating global academic topics of interest only to changing in fundamental ways as a projections of climate specialist groups, are now common consequence of human activities and that currency in policy debates, the media such change will affect regions across the change or the need for and public dialogue. Few, if any, people globe. It is highly likely that regional disaster risk reduction (ourselves included) have a changes in climatic patterns will occur. into courses of action comprehensive understanding of what that can be climate risk reduction or adaptation to implemented at local the impacts of climate change may levels are complex. actually entail.

The future has always been clouded, but it is even more so now. Some seek certainty regarding the likely impacts of climate change in ever more detailed scientific projections. While such projections may provide important insights, we believe that they are, for reasons related to the chaotic behaviour of social and natural systems, unlikely to provide the precision often sought. The accuracy of such models is confounded by imprecise measures of initial and boundary conditions, and their ability to map the implications of global conditions onto the complex mosaics that characterise local contexts is limited. Natural scientists and engineers trained to demand specific

2 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

More specifically, rises in sea-level, brief period and then faded as political OF CHANGE WINDS THE UNDERSTANDING increases in storm intensity, changes in attention wanes. If the concepts of climatic variability and increases in adaptation and disaster risk reduction droughts, floods and other extreme fade, human societies will forego a future climatic events are very probable. While and millions of people will pay with their climate models and the insights they lives. The challenge is real and provide have immense value, models, fundamental. however, aren’t sufficient because they cannot predict precisely where, when or This report, a preliminary step in a much with what intensity events will occur in broader programme, presents some initial specific regions. Climate events, as with insights from methodological the occurrence of other extreme hazards investigations and field studies which – from earthquakes to the collapse of explore the link between disaster risk stock markets – will always contain a reduction and adaptation to climate fair degree of surprise. Developing change. The impacts of climate change effective systems to deal with such are almost certain to be pulsed. Gradual surprises and to reduce their impact declines in rainfall within regions will continues to remain a challenge. become evident when they translate into Concepts of adaptation to climate prolonged drought. Gradual rises in sea- change and disaster risk reduction need level will reshape coastal regions when, The impacts of to be translated into practical strategies as Hurricane Katrina did, coastal defence so that they do not become jargon similar structures are overwhelmed. Such surges climate change are to the many other buzz words that have will engender both destruction but also almost certain to be littered global development debates for a windows of political and social pulsed.

Coastal Tamilnadu © M Moench

3 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

opportunity to deal with surprises. The changes than simply rebuilding sewer pulsed nature of the impact of Katrina, systems. Entire communities would need for example, has focused attention on to be relocated rendering their old and spatial planning issues – moving people any newly designed sewer systems out of harm’s way. Many advocate irrelevant. As a result, strategies for relocation in order to minimise the working with pulsed change – impacts of climate change and reduce incorporating the reduction of future disaster risks. However well meaning the risks into the process of post-disaster approach, there is no denying that it is reconstruction – are essential. difficult to tell a small farmer in Bangladesh or a family in the poor This said, as ProVention has documented quarters of New Orleans that they must elsewhere, existing experience with risk give up their only assets and move. reduction in reconstruction contexts has Movement will occur, however, whether been far from encouraging. Political voluntary or involuntarily, as it did constraints in the reconstruction process

UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE following Hurricane Katrina. Much of are major and it is often difficult or this movement is likely to occur in pulses impossible to incorporate risk reduction as people are either forced from their measures. As discussed further in the Strategies for working place of residence or, when the hazard is overview chapter, it may be possible to with pulsed change – brought to their direct attention by an address such limitations through incorporating event, choose to move. proactive planning for reconstruction in hazard prone areas - effectively linking reduction of future Ethically, risk reduction should occur proactive identification of potential risk risks in the process of proactively where hazards are clear. reduction measures with the need and post-disaster Practically, it is unlikely to. That opportunity for reconstruction that can reconstruction – are something should happen and that accompany major events. Furthermore, it essential. something can happen are not equivalent. is equally important to emphasise that Furthermore, in many cases proactive disaster risk reduction in advance of responses make little sense. Even well- likely events should be used as a informed urban residents with proactive measure. Retrofitting of substantial technical competence may buildings, upgrading of flood protection see little reason to respond before measures, spatial planning (zoning to extreme events destroy existing systems. reduce exposure in areas vulnerable to The U.S. Environmental Protection hazards), economic diversification away Agency, for example, has identified from vulnerable livelihoods, many such hundreds of municipal wastewater measures can and should become central systems in Florida that will need to be within existing environments as well as a redesigned as sea-levels rise, but since feature in new investments. these systems may work for decades before they become non-functional, Strategies able to respond to the diverse redesign only makes sense following contexts in which climate impacts and either their destruction during an disasters occur must also be developed. extreme event or at the end of their Risk is inherently local. Shaped as they functional lifespan. In any case, if sea- are by factors as diverse as topography, levels rise more rapidly than anticipated, social stratification and gender, most risk the adaptation process in Florida will vectors lie below the radar screen of need to involve far more transformative national governments. This invisibility

4 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

poses major challenges for the translating concepts into a practical OF CHANGE WINDS THE UNDERSTANDING development of national or regional basis for action. The third chapter programmes which target specific provides a detailed analysis of existing hazards, because such approaches must scientific information on the impacts be tailored to specific local contexts. climate change may have for the When events occur infrequently, however, monsoon in the Indian subcontinent. such specific approaches are difficult to Two methodology chapters (four and maintain. At a deeper level, however, risk five) follow, focusing respectively on and the ability to adapt are shaped by the vulnerability analysis and shared underlying systems that enable learning dialogues (the techniques we populations to respond and shift are using to translate climate and other strategies in relation to specific events or hazard information into a practical changing conditions. basis for strategy identification). These two chapters emphasise both the The studies presented in this report strengths and limitations of evolving illustrate the various roles that methodologies and explore potential approaches targeted toward hazard- avenues for their improvement. The specific and underlying systems can play next four chapters (six, seven, eight and in diverse contexts and in response to nine) are devoted to case studies that Approaches must be multiple hazards. At the time of writing, illustrate both the use of existing tailored to specific fieldwork was ongoing on coastal regions methodologies and the strategic insights local contexts. of Tamilnadu and Gujarat, portions of the they have generated in specific Gangetic plain falling within both India locations. The first five chapters of this and Nepal, and in Pakistan, in the urban publication provide conceptual and area of Islamabad and the hill zones of policy level insights, while the next four Muzaffarabad devastated by the 2005 chapters provide lessons for earthquake. This report presents initial practitioners. Some of the insights into results from many of these areas with a and the implications for the particular focus on the methodologies development of effective ways forward currently being developed and used. It are summarised in the next section. also focuses on the climate change element, specifically the degree to which

existing climate projections can provide © F Khan Earthquake damaged buildings, Muzaffarabad useful insights into more appropriate disaster risk reduction strategies for each areas.

The report is organised in the following manner: The first chapter provides an introduction. The second chapter presents concepts related to climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. It then explores the implications of those concepts for the financial viability of various risk reduction strategies before concluding with an overview of the approaches we are developing for

5 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

of shared learning may seem self-evident, Key Issues but we have emphasised it here because it has basic implications that include but go beyond the widely accepted strategy of community participation and stakeholder involvement in risk reduction. In particular, the need for shared learning underpins the importance of balancing methodological approaches while communicating key information about risk, vulnerability and the viability of Reducing disaster risks, particularly various strategies. The points below relate those likely to emerge as a consequence directly to the need for shared learning: of climate change, is a long-term process. Contexts are evolving continuously – 1. Recognition of the strengths and UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE and not just in response to climate limitations of both narrative-based conditions. Capacities are also growing approaches such as vulnerability and as technological change, globalisation, capacity analysis and quantitative Shared learning and processes of institutional evolution methodologies. Narrative approaches processes represent a reshape the underlying systems on capture nuances that shape the cornerstone in any which local societies run. Furthermore, transformation of physical hazards into patterns of risk and vulnerability effort to address the new knowledge about the nature of climate and other hazards, patterns of for various groups but they have risks associated with vulnerability and the effectiveness of functional limitations. In particular, climate change and alternative strategies for reducing risk is they are difficult to translate into a other natural hazards. continuously emerging at different functional basis for decision-making scales. The dynamic, multi-level nature of change processes makes shared learning essential. © A Pokhrel Unless emerging knowledge can be shared among regions and communities and across time, strategies cannot evolve in ways that reflect changing conditions. As a result, shared learning processes represent a cornerstone in any effort to address the risks associated with climate change and other hazards. What is a shared learning dialogue process? In essence it is a set of meetings in which information and perspectives are transferred between groups (from experts and government actors to communities and vice versa) in an iterative manner that, over time, builds shared understanding of the complicated, multi-dimensional nature of risks and the potential responses to such risks. The importance Breached embankment along Rohini River, 2007 monsoon. 6 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

in policy and economic contexts. accessible to stakeholders are all OF CHANGE WINDS THE UNDERSTANDING Decision makers often give credence – limitations. Given their inherent and for very good reasons – to limitations, quantitative and qualitative quantitative measures, which can be measures must both play balanced roles mapped in relation to the number of in vulnerability and capacity analysis if people and geographic factors such analysis is to provide an involved. In addition, if the basis for operational basis for action. quantification is explicitly described, such measures can be more 2. The need to improve and utilise transparent than narratives. Our own qualitative and quantitative experiences with shared learning estimates of the cost and benefits of dialogue approaches are outlined in alternative strategies for risk Chapter 5. These experiences illustrate reduction under changing climatic how qualitative narrative approaches conditions. Since the process of cost- often require as specialised expertise benefit analysis (CBA) requires in order to implement and interpret them as more quantitative approaches. Quantitative measures are limited as narratives, but in a © A Pokhrel different way: How questions are framed; who controls, selects and analyses data; the tendency to ignore factors which are difficult to quantify; the propagation of errors; hidden assumptions and a heavy reliance on analytical technologies that are not

Sand deposition in paddy field following the breach, 2007.

7 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE © A Pokhrel

clarifying the assumptions on which the investments in risk reduction are based such analysis can be a key Submerged pumpset in paddy field 2007 monsoon. technique for forcing an evaluation of those assumptions, a central element in the learning process. Furthermore, quantitative and qualitative estimates improve access to the can provide a relatively standardised communication, transport, financial, baseline for learning across projects organisational, governance, and regions. These methods can also livelihood and other capacities that help to incorporate questions of equity influence adaptive capacity and that CBA often fails to address. These vulnerability. additional benefits are, we believe, as important as the financial justification 4. Increasing understanding of the CBA may or may not provide for relative strengths and weaknesses UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE guiding investment decisions. of soft and hard resilience. Most approaches to disaster risk reduction 3. Development of frameworks that focus on hard resilience – the Hard resilience assist in relating specific courses of physical strengthening of structures measures, such as action to the underlying concepts and other control measures – embankments or that shape understanding of risk, designed to deflect the impact of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. coastal levies, are – as extreme events. Soft resilience A tremendous array of activities and strategies, in contrast, emphasise the experience of strategies are currently being increasing the flexibility of systems to Hurricane Katrina discussed at global and local levels respond and adapt as conditions demonstrated – often under the rubric of disaster risk change. Hard resilience measures, subject to catastrophic reduction and climate adaptation. such as constructing embankments failure when conditions Debates regarding the role of or coastal levies, are – as the exceed design communities, the private sector, civil experience of Hurricane Katrina society, non-government parameters. demonstrated – often subject to organisations and governmental catastrophic failure when conditions actors are intense and often divided exceed design parameters. along ideological lines. We believe Furthermore they can reduce social that such debates can be clarified (if awareness of risk and thereby not resolved) and translated into encourage behaviours – such as the practical courses of action that relate settlement of populations in areas potential interventions to (a) the role protected by flood control measures – they play in reducing risk and that ultimately increase vulnerability. supporting adaptation either directly In contrast, strategies based on soft or at systemic levels; and (b) the resilience, by increasing the ability of operational (or business) models they society to live with variability, risk imply. Direct measures involve and change, may ultimately prove interventions (such as structures, more effective than the hard disaster management organisations, resilience approach. The shared and insurance) that are specifically learning dialogue methodologies designed to address emerging or being developed as part of our on- known risks. Systemic measures, for going programme have proved useful their part, strengthen, diversify and in identifying key points of entry for

8 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

developing soft resilience and both identifying strategies for working OF CHANGE WINDS THE UNDERSTANDING the advantages and limitations of with the windows of opportunity hard resilience. created by a disaster is important.

5. Working with pulsed change. In all 6. Refining understanding of the use the case study areas under our and limitations of information on programme extreme events have climate and other hazards. served as a major catalyst for change. Changing the mental maps that sector In Tamilnadu, the impact of the Asian specialists, decision-makers and tsunami raised policy awareness individual users bring to climate and about coastal issues and continues to hazard projections is perhaps the generate basic interest in strategies to greatest challenge for shared address coastal problems. In the learning. Disciplines such as Nepal Tarai, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar hydrology and engineering rely on the long history of flooding is the projections of future conditions (such primary catalyst for livelihood as flood flows) as being as precise as strategies to mitigate risks at the possible in order to design structures. community level. Finally, in the Design principles for soft resilience in Pakistan cases, earlier disasters contexts characterised by uncertainty Design principles for served as the catalysts for formulating and variability are rarely taught, but soft resilience in the risk reduction programmes knowledge of such principles is contexts characterised currently in use. In the Lai Basin exactly what responding to climate by uncertainty and (Muzaffarabad), these programmes change and other natural hazards are hazard specific and involve both often requires. We need a better variability are rarely difficult-to-maintain interventions understanding of the way different taught. such as a flood early-warning system types of information on gradual but installed by Japan International relatively assured processes (for Cooperation Agency (JICA) as well as example, the gradual rise in sea-levels proposed structural measures. In projected) and probabilistic risks (like Muzaffarabad, all new houses storm frequencies and intensities) can funded under post-earthquake be used. Our understanding reconstruction programmes are improved, we need effective strategies required to use one of two of communicating these different standardised designs. While case types of information. information from the region suggests that this may not directly reduce risk 7. Improving governance of the change and is unlikely to be effective or and adaptation process. Processes sustainable, the earthquake disaster for responding to disaster risks and did catalyse a massive expansion in adapting to climate change will communication capabilities, involve numerous questions of equity transport, banking and other systems. and will affect the lives and Though not formally recognised as livelihoods of many groups. contributing to climate and other Pluralistic approaches that enable disaster risk reduction, these different populations to give voice to developments are more basic systemic their concerns and perspectives and changes that will probably reduce the that enable them to take action as vulnerability of regional populations systems change are, as a result, to all natural hazards. In general, essential.

9 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

that are specifically designed to Key Insights respond to climate risks. As the Muzaffarabad case study illustrates, underlying systems are often expanding in ways that support adaptive capacity and reduce future risks, but their contribution is rarely recognised as a formal part of risk reduction by policy and development actors. This case study also illustrates the key role disaster can play in Initial results emerging from the case creating a window of opportunity for studies and other activities of our project systemic changes. Risk reduction in have generated insights regarding Muzaffarabad is occurring as much potential points of entry for both specific through indirect and unintended UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE approaches to climate change changes catalysed by the earthquake as adaptation and disaster risk reduction it is through the direct interventions of and the methodologies useful to inform private sector, non-government and Over the long-term, these processes. governmental organisations. supporting the Furthermore, many of the systemic development of changes, such as the expansion of Direct Versus Systemic Points of systems that help communication systems, are occurring Entry for Supporting Disaster Risk not through development support but diversify risks and Reduction and Adaptation based on private sector business support adaptive models. Recognising the points of entry capacity may be as – Most policy dialogue and for supporting risk management through or, in many cases far implementation activities related to changes at the level of systems and more – cost effective disaster risk reduction and climate bringing those to the centre of policy than courses of action adaptation focus on activities that can dialogue is, we believe, essential. Not every be directly related to specific hazards. disaster, however,offers the same targeted at specific Such strategies involve activities such as window of opportunity for bringing risks. the creation of hazard-specific early about systemic changes. Often this warning systems, building disaster window rapidly closes as social, response capabilities at the community political and other kinds of routine and other levels and the strengthening processes begin to dominate in the of physical structures. The aftermath of the disaster. sustainability of many such interventions is questionable because Over the long-term, supporting the the operational business models on development of systems that help which they are based are unclear. diversify risks and support adaptive capacity may be as – or, in many cases The adaptive capacity of populations far more – cost effective than courses of depends as much on the nature of action targeted at specific risks. As underlying systems of communication, discussed in the overview chapter to transport, organisation, knowledge follow, interventions at the level of management, finance, governance and systems that support adaptation to risk livelihoods as it does on interventions and climate change will often have

10 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

different cost and benefit structures than well as community and stakeholder OF CHANGE WINDS THE UNDERSTANDING those of approaches more narrowly processes; targeted at direct risks. Multi-function „ Facilitators’ ability and capacity to systems, such as those for learn and understand as opposed to communication, banking, transport and allowing their own perspectives to education, generally operate on the basis dominate either the dialogue or its of private or public sector business interpretation; and models. Interventions that strengthen „ Effective systems for capturing, such systems and link hazard specific recording and responding to interventions to them are likely to be knowledge as it evolves in the much more cost effective and sustainable dialogue process. than stand-alone risk reduction interventions. Shared learning dialogue processes can be facilitated by, but should not be Techniques such as the matrices confused with, analytical approaches presented in the next chapter as well as such as capacity-vulnerability analysis. those in each case study that map Techniques that support shared ongoing interventions in relation to both learning include strategy ranking direct risks and underlying systems can methods, cost-benefit analysis and serve as a basis for clarifying the strategy mapping. intervention strategies proposed. Shared learning process

Methods for Shared Learning

Plan The programme has developed an intensive dialogue process designed to

catalyse shared learning across scales, Learn sectors and communities. This shared Cycles of Learning learning process is outlined in the diagram to the right. Experiences Plan

emerging from the initial Learn Implement implementation of these shared learning dialogue methodologies indicate that capacity development and sustained processes are crucial for them to be Implement Plan effective. In particular, shared learning

requires an iterative process in which Plan Adapting & Learning & Adapting the capacity of facilitators to translate Learn knowledge among contexts is essential. Learn Key capacities required in order to

Implement Plan implement it include: Implement

Learn „ Interdisciplinary understanding of core topics including both the Plan technical dimensions of climate Event Event Implement Scope Scope change and hazard relationships as

11 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Ways Forward

This report presents preliminary importantly, the operational business insights from work in progress. Though models through which they can be the perspectives of the authors will sustained. continue to evolve, the key elements of a 3. Documentation and analysis: UNDERSTANDING THE WINDS OF CHANGE way forward are clear. Reducing the Without this there will be little basis risk of disaster and responding to the for the shared learning process challenges inherent in a changing needed to drive adaptation and risk Communication climate will require four steps: reduction over the long term when between levels, sectors global society must respond to and communities, the 1. Innovation: The development of climate and other hazards. basis for shared strategies for risk reduction and 4. Dialogue: Communication between adaptation that strengthen the levels, sectors and communities, the learning, can only be capacity and resilience of underlying basis for shared learning, can only be developed through systems as well as more risk-focused developed through effective dialogue effective dialogue approaches. processes. Shared learning dialogue processes. 2. Incubation: The development, testing techniques can also play a key role in and evolution of diverse approaches monitoring and evaluating the that contribute to risk reduction and effectiveness of risk reduction and adaptive capacity and, more adaptation support measures.

12 CHAPTER2

Adapting to Climate Change and the Risks Associated with other Natural Hazards: Methods for Moving from Concepts to Action

Marcus Moench „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

known to have a disproportionate The Challenge impact on poor communities. If one adds in landslides and wildfires – both of which could be affected, though less directly, by climate change, the percentage of climate related disaster deaths increases to nearly 85% (EM-DAT data cited in Dilley, Chen et al., 2005). The recurrent losses due to such extreme events have, in fact, been identified as a major factor Climate change is increasingly contributing to endemic poverty recognised as among the greatest (Benson and Clay, 2002; ISDR, 2004; challenges human society will face over Wisner, Blaikie et al., 2004; IRIN, 2005). the coming century. While it will affect Furthermore, the incidence and everything from basic ecosystem economic impact of climate related processes to the spread of disease, some disasters has been increasing over of the greatest impacts are anticipated to recent decades (World Meteorological occur due to increases in the frequency Organisation, Co-operative Programme In many cases, risk and intensity of extreme climate events, on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As reduction cannot be i.e. storms, floods, droughts. In total, the Hyogo framework for Disaster Risk achieved through between 1974 and 2003, preliminary Reduction highlights, disaster risk structural measures data from 6,384 events show that reduction is essential if the world is to and societies need to windstorms, droughts, extreme succeed in reaching the Millennium develop social systems temperatures, floods and wave surges Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). In accounted for 75% of natural disasters many cases, risk reduction cannot be and adaptive capacities (Hoyois and Guha-Sapir, 2004). Extreme achieved only through structural that enable populations weather events already account for over measures and societies need to develop to live with risk. 70% of recorded disasters and are social systems and adaptive capacities that enable populations to live with risk. This involves, in essence, largely World distributions of natural disasters: (6,384 disasters) similar sets of capacities as those required for adapting to climatic 4% 9%

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL 6% variability and change. Strategies for 4% responding to climate change, 0% reducing disaster risk and alleviating 10% poverty are, as a result, inherently intertwined.

31% At a global level some of the consequences of climate change – increases in average temperature, changes in the frequency and intensity 34% 2% of extreme weather events, changes in sea-level, etc. – are relatively well Droughts Wildfires Waves-surges Earthquake Floods understood. What such changes Windstorms Slides Extreme temperatures Volcanic eruptions actually mean for local areas is,

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however, far less so. At this level, a reduce risk and support adaptation. NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE myriad of factors come into play. Similar fundamental shifts in economic Economic and livelihood systems, systems, demographics, transport, transport, communications, land-use environmental conditions, government patterns, formal and informal policies, and so on are contributing to mechanisms for risk sharing, cultural the reshaping of livelihood systems and values, etc. all play a major role in climate/hazard vulnerability across shaping who will be affected by climate South Asia. Communities experience change and how they will be affected. the local effects of such shifts but are The impacts, although heavily shaped often too embedded in their context to by global systems, are thus inherently envision the opportunities and local. As with impacts, options for constraints the shifts will create over adapting to climate change – or indeed time. As a result, strategies for disaster the risks posed by any natural hazard – risk reduction and adaptation require are inherently location specific but are the integration of local, community- shaped by economic, climatic, water based, knowledge with knowledge of resource and other systems that operate higher-level changes in policies, at regional to global levels. economic systems, technologies, environmental systems, and a myriad Communities The fact that climate and other risks are of other factors. Achieving this experience the local location specific, but that the options for integration represents a major effects of change responding to them depend heavily on challenge. processes but are regional to global systems, presents a methodological challenge for entities The challenge is further complicated by often too embedded seeking to understand and support risk the cross-sectoral nature of risk and in their context to mitigation or adaptation. In most adaptation issues and the ‘pulsed’ envision the situations, local knowledge, the nature of change processes (Gunderson opportunities and foundation of community-based risk and Holling, 2002). Where the cross- constraints the reduction strategies, only partially sectoral aspect is concerned, adaptation changes will create reflects the opportunities and and disaster risk reduction do not map constraints emerging at higher levels. neatly onto sector based organisations, over time. The case of early warning systems such as those that exist in most illustrates this well. A decade ago, in the countries for water management or mid 1990s, cell phone technology was urban planning. Instead, risk reduction accessible only to wealthy urban and adaptation are inherently households in countries of South Asia. interdisciplinary topics and will Now it is ubiquitous even in distant require changes or action across rural areas and, in addition to its core multiple sectors. As a result, they are communication function, is being tested not ‘natural’ focal points for projects or as a mechanism to disseminate disaster other types of action. Furthermore, warnings. Access to this type of many of the most effective avenues for communication and early warning supporting adaptation and risk system – to say nothing of the reduction are only tangentially linked behavioural changes it could enable – to the specific impacts associated with was until recently unthinkable for climate change or natural hazards. individuals in rural communities. Now Recent research in India and Nepal, for it is a central feature in attempts to example, highlights the role that

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dissipates rapidly as time passes and Peri urbanisation in Pakistan. other issues take centre stage. Most

© M Moench development planners and other actors focus on incremental processes of change – the gradual development of infrastructure, social capital, institutions and policy frameworks. Pressures for fundamental change, however, often emerge suddenly and then dissipate. This disjuncture between societal approaches and the nature of change processes is of particular relevance in the case of natural hazards and climate change. Events that are now classified as ‘extreme’ may become the norm. Reducing risk may, as a result, depend on societies’ ability to recognise longer- term change processes and take advantage of the brief windows of opportunity for bringing about Socially and politically, income diversification plays in reducing fundamental change following crises. pressure for change climate risks, particularly in areas that The case of Hurricane Katrina often rises during are heavily dependent on agriculture illustrates the issue well. The U.S. Gulf (Moench and Dixit, 2004). Over the long Coast is extremely vulnerable to sea- and immediately term, educational levels are a central level rise, particularly if that is following crises. factor influencing the ability of accompanied by increases in the populations to diversify. It is difficult, frequency or intensity of hurricanes. however, to argue that general Ideally, the process of reconstruction education programmes should form a following Katrina would take this central element in strategies for climate vulnerability into account through adaptation and disaster risk reduction – fundamental changes in, for example, the link with exposure to extreme land-use and water management

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL climatic events is, at best, tangential. systems (Moench and Stapleton, 2007). This said, when viewed from a systemic Unfortunately, although more radical perspective support for general changes have been discussed, most education as the foundation for reconstruction activities emphasise diversification may, in actuality, be replacement of pre-existing central to any strategy for climate infrastructure and livelihood systems. adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Rather than moving settlements to higher ground away from the coast, for Finally, the pulsed nature of change example, most investments are going processes is a major complicating factor. into strengthening or raising existing Socially and politically, pressure for levies. However unsustainable current change often rises during and conditions may be, post-disaster immediately following crises. This reconstruction efforts generally focus on window of opportunity, however, replacement of pre-disaster

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infrastructure, livelihoods, political and social opportunity for NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE organizations and procedures rather change. As a result, mechanisms for than replacement these more anticipating and working with the sustainable systems. windows of opportunity for fundamental change that exist Adaptation to climate risk, particularly following crises will also be essential. the hazards associated with extreme However complicated it may be — and events, will require basic changes in existing experience documented by approaches to disaster risk reduction. ProVention (see http:// Effective mechanisms will need to be www.proventionconsortium.org/ found for implementing courses of ?pageid=32&projectid=10) with action across sectors and between attempts to incorporate risk reduction communities and higher levels of in reconstruction programmes does organisation. Perhaps more importantly, highlight the constraints faced — we effective strategies will need to be argue here that the post-disaster developed that shape local and regional period does represent a critical development pathways in ways that window of opportunity for reduce or avoid climate risks. In many interventions to reduce risk over the regions this may need to ‘go beyond’ the longer term. Just as incorporation of Adaptation to climate incorporation of risk reduction risk reduction in development risk, particularly the measures in standard development programmes is increasingly hazards associated programmes. Little long-term benefit recognized as a major challenge for the with extreme events, may, for example, be achieved by development community, we argue improving coastal storm defenses as that incorporation of risk reduction in will require basic part of a regional development reconstruction is an equally important changes in programme if sea-level rise threatens the challenge for the communities of actors approaches to entire coastal region. In this case, involved in reconstruction. disaster risk alternative development pathways that reduction. either focus on the construction of major assets on higher lands or change the Objectives design of assets in ways that accommodate sea-level rise (scientists in The objective of this publication is first the Netherlands are, for example, to outline core conceptual elements proposing the development of that structure understanding of ‘hydrometropols’ – modern Venices) adaptation processes and their will be essential (Kabat, Vierssen et al., relationships to disaster risk 2005). Radical changes of this sort may, reduction, second to discuss the in some cases, only be possible when implications of these concepts for existing infrastructure in vulnerable approaches to investing in adaptation regions has been disrupted and there is and disaster risk reduction, and third widespread acceptance of fundamental to identify practical techniques for change. Such conditions are perhaps moving from concepts to courses of most likely when extreme storms or action that support climate adaptation other similar events create windows of and disaster risk reduction.

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factors that enable or constrain people to Conceptual Foundations respond to the challenges faced in a particular situation that creates a practical linkage between the concepts discussed below and what can practically be done. This is important to keep in mind as basic conceptual elements are discussed below.

Adaptation Philosophically, the starting point for all our work on adaptation is founded At a conceptual level, adaptation in on systems theory. We view the human systems can be thought of as challenges of responding to climate risk driven by two core processes: selective as being shaped by the complex pressures (the equivalent of natural interaction between dynamic natural, selection in ecosystems) and what might social, economic, cultural and political be termed agency-driven innovation (that Focusing on the factors systems. These dynamics are, due to is, proactive forms of innovation or that enable or their complexity, dependence on initial action in response to perceived constrain people to conditions and non-linearity, inherently constraints and opportunities). These respond to the chaotic and difficult to predict. Surprise two processes are not separate; they is, as a result, inevitable. Consequently, interact as agents experience selective challenges faced in a attempts to develop ‘integrated’ pressures or perceive opportunities and particular situation approaches that respond to all the most commonly act pro-actively or creates a link between potential consequences and dynamic ‘adapt’ within the limits of their concepts and what can changes in human and natural systems capacities, perceptions and priorities. practically be done. will be ineffective and are inherently inappropriate (Holling and Meffe, 1996). The role of selective pressures has been Instead, as a growing body of literature a central pillar in evolutionary theories now recognises, approaches need to be and has served as a cornerstone of founded on an understanding of modern biology since Charles Darwin systems – broad perspectives that published The Origin of the Species. In

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL recognise the complex interplay between biology it has been defined as: ‘the diverse human and natural systems process whereby organisms better (Gunderson 1999; Holling, 2001; adapted to their environment tend to Gunderson and Holling, 2002).1 survive and produce more offspring.’2 Solutions to emerging problems will be Organisms having characteristics that clumsy, constructed on the basis of are favourable or give them comparative partial measures that are targeted advantages in relation to other toward key factors that constrain or organisms (whether of the same species enable humans to adapt to conditions as or different species) survive and they emerge within the continuous reproduce better than organisms lacking process of change. It is this focus on the such characteristics or having other

1 See also www.resalliance.org 2 The Oxford Pocket Dictionary of Current English 2006, originally published by Oxford University Press 2006.

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characteristics that place them at a are highly variable, as they are for NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE competitive disadvantage. When such example in volatile currency markets, characteristics can be “inherited” specialised mechanisms are developed (whether genetically or through for managing that variability. In this education across generations), over time case, entities (firms) often diversify advantageous features are propagated assets, set prices based on baskets of and negative features ‘sifted out.’ As a currency or take other steps that result, population characteristics evolve minimise the impact of variability on in ways that are increasingly adapted to their core activities. Major challenges their context. emerge when variability exceeds the range commonly encountered in recent Concepts of selection apply equally well history. Just, however, as ecosystems with regard to many aspects of human can be drastically reshaped by sudden systems as they do with regard to extreme events (such as intense, biological systems. Basic economic extended droughts) so economic and theory, for example, views the selective social systems can be reshaped by pressures generated by competitive periods of intense economic or social markets as the major force driving disruption (such as a war or extended efficiency and innovation. Efficient economic downturn). In this case the Education is central to business models and technologies tend characteristics that made an entity ‘well adaptation: Better to have a competitive advantage over adapted’ to the pre-existing context may educated workers have less efficient ones and thus tend to contribute to its’ demise under the new a comparative survive and proliferate. Better educated conditions. Firms, for example, that have workers have a comparative advantage adapted to operating in protected advantage over others over others in competitive job markets, a markets often lack the characteristics in competitive job factor that provides a strong selective necessary for survival when protective markets. pressure supporting education and the barriers are removed. This is also the gradual evolution of social capital at a case in agricultural and natural societal level.

As in ecosystems, the nature of selective Cement house in Muzaffarabad. pressures in social systems and the © M Moench ability of different entities (individuals, households, businesses, etc.) to adapt to them vary greatly. Entities that exist in contexts where key resources (such as financial and intellectual capital) or key inputs (such as labour, energy or water) evolve in ways that maximise their ability to capture, minimise dependency on, or make efficient use of scarce inputs. Often this evolution involves pro-active (agency-driven) courses of action undertaken by individual agents in response to the opportunities and constraints emerging from the selective pressures encountered. When conditions

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systems. If, for example, exposure to or businesses are continuously exposed drought is eliminated, people have little to the selective pressures generated by incentive to plan for it by implementing variability and risk, they are subject to efficient water technologies, purchasing strong immediate incentives for insurance or diversifying crops. When diversification, strategy shifting and this occurs, the ‘shock’ to an learning. These contribute to their agricultural economic system is likely to flexibility, adaptive capacity and be far higher when droughts eventually resilience. Such dynamics occur in do occur. Similarly, in the western U.S., relation to virtually all risks. decades of effort to reduce forest fires have led to high levels of fuel loading in Overall, selective pressures within the forests. Now, when fires occur, they societies are often seen as one, if not the, tend to be far larger, far hotter and far major force underlying the continuous more destructive than ever before. adaptation of skills, technologies, Removal or reduction of selective institutions, relationships and other pressures often limits perceptions forms of social capital to ever-evolving regarding the underlying risks - and contexts. Such adaptive processes are, it thus limits the ability of agents to take is important to recognise, not always Regular exposure to pro-active action. positive in relation to many social variability and risk objectives – such as poverty alleviation forces entities to Selective pressures also can contribute or social equity. Comparative to the maintenance of resilience. advantages (whether from education, develop and maintain Regular exposure to variability and risk wealth, location or other sources) in the adaptive forces entities to develop and maintain competitive contexts often persist across mechanisms necessary the adaptive mechanisms necessary to generations and sections of society to adjust when adjust when events occur (Gunderson giving rise to deeply entrenched social, events occur. and Holling, 2002). When households ethnic, class and caste divisions.

Although selective pressures are a major factor, adaptation in human systems is Relief camp in Muzaffarabad. not driven only by them. Unlike natural © M Moench systems, actors within human systems strategise and take action in response to

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL aspirations and perceived opportunities. As a result, the concept of agency can be seen as a major difference between adaptation processes in human and natural systems. Agency, in the philosophical sense, is the capacity of an individual, group or organization (an “agent”) to act. Agency can operate at any level from the individual to the societal. At the individual level, courses of action to improve skills or acquire resources that enable people to take advantage of the opportunities or to respond to the

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constraints they perceive represent a NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE Li Intervention mi form of proactive adaptation. Planning, tin l Alert g l Warning Ex l Rescue te strategising and the proactive lIntormatoin n t Event l Damage mitigation o Preparation f innovation and development of l Information/ Instructions D l Organisatkion a m capacities and institutions in response l Resource a g planning e s to perceived opportunities and l Deployment s R e e planning s n p Recondition constraints also occurs within d o l Insurance l Provisional repair e Assessing n r s

e l Supply and disposal organisations such as households, a Hazards

Prevention p l Transport systems

e r and Risks l Communications firms, and governments. This type of l Land use planning

P l Flnancing l Technical measures ‘agency-driven innovation’ underlies l Emergency legislation l Biological measures

courses of action ranging from E Rec R v overy is e e s d n ly investments in education, livelihood u t a c A n in n t A diversification and migration at the g al Reconstruction en V ys Ev u is l Definitive repair ln individual and household level (the so e l Reconstruction ra b l Strengthening of resilience ilit called ‘autonomous forms of y l Financing adaptation’) up to programmes and adaptation plans implemented by Source: Swiss Civil Protection governments or international organisations (so called ‘planned to take proactive steps to adapt. In this A prime ‘window of adaptation’). It also underlies the situation, a prime ‘window of opportunity’ for responses agents (individuals, opportunity’ for reducing future risks reducing future risks households, organizations, etc.) make in may exist in the immediate aftermath of may exist in the relation to sudden pressures disasters when awareness is high and encountered during disasters. existing entrenched systems are immediate aftermath of disrupted. In nature, adaptive processes disasters when As with adaptation in response to often operate in pulses of rapid change awareness is high and selective pressures, agency-driven forms followed by slower periods of more existing entrenched of adaptation depend heavily on linear growth and refinement. This is systems are disrupted. exposure to and familiarity with sources also the case in social systems. It is a of risk or opportunity. Perceptions major point where adaptation processes catalyse responses to both opportunities link with our next topic – disaster risk and risks. If people have never been reduction. exposed to specific conditions, their ability to perceive and respond to a potential opportunity or threat is likely Disaster Risk Reduction to be limited. When the threat or opportunity is obvious, responses are Conceptually, reducing the risk of much more likely to follow. As a result, disasters is closely associated to as with selective pressures, the adaptation processes. The Swiss frequency of events and the degree to disaster preparation cycle, a fairly which people are exposed to them has a conventional approach to DRR, major influence on proactive adaptation. characterises preparation as part of a When changes or fluctuations are continuous cycle of activities which infrequent and sudden, then the ability move from disaster events through to perceive (and take seriously) both the recovery (damage limitation) and risk opportunities and risks associated with reduction (preparation) phases until the them is limited and thus so is the ability next event occurs. Many of the elements

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identified in this cycle – strengthening such as land use planning, insurance, of resilience, land-use and other warning and information are also only planning, insurance and the partial steps toward adaptation. development of early warning information – should reduce Wider approaches to the vulnerability to the next event and thus, conceptualisation of disaster in essence, assist regions in ‘adapting vulnerability, such as those developed to’ the types of events that can cause by Ben Wisner and others in their disaster. classic book At Risk are, however, much more closely linked to concepts of The contribution DRR measures of the adaptation (Wisner, Blaikie et al., 2004). type envisioned in the Swiss disaster In specific, the Disaster Pressure and preparation cycle can make to Release (PAR) model focuses on the adaptation is, however, partial. In most connections between the progression of Measures such as land disaster preparation contexts, resilience vulnerability, disaster and hazards. It use planning, is largely discussed in relation to defines the progression of vulnerability strengthening of physical structures, not in relation to root causes (limited access insurance, warning and in relation to the underlying systems to power, structures and resources and information are only and sets of capacities that enable ideologies – political and economic partial steps toward societies to adapt to variable and systems), dynamic pressures (lack of adaptation. changing conditions. Other measures institutions, training, skills, etc. and

© M Moench

Peri urban Kathmandu. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL

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macro-forces such as urbanisation, disaster recovery and sustainable NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE population growth, etc…) and unsafe development programmes. This is, in conditions (physical environment, local essence, very similar conceptually to the economy, social relations and public types of activity that are involved in actions and institutions). Hazards are adaptation. Individuals, households, physical events such as earthquakes, organisations and other entities are seen floods and so on. They analyse the links as ‘adapting’ by responding to the between hazards and the progression of opportunities and constraints in their vulnerability – that is the ‘disaster’ environment. component of the PAR model – using a separate dynamic framework which they term the ‘Access’ model. The Fragility access model ‘focuses on the way unsafe conditions arise in relation to the In the disaster risk reduction community, economic and political processes that the concept of fragility is used to define allocate assets, income and other the relationship between damage and resources in a society.’ (Wisner, Blaikie hazard intensity. As fragility increases, et al., 2004 p. 92). Access is further damage for a given intensity hazard defined as involving ‘the ability of an event increases. As illustrated in the As fragility increases, individual, family, group, class or accompanying diagram (for flooding in damage for a given community to use resources which are Semarang, Indonesia) fragility functions intensity hazard directly required to secure a livelihood are used to identify changes in direct and event increases. in normal, pre-disaster times, and their indirect losses to different classes of ability to adapt to new and threatening assets or activities in relation to flood conditions.’ (Wisner, Blaikie et al., 2004 depth, earthquake intensity and so on p.94). Individuals and other entities (Mechler, 2005). which have access to key resources are seen as much better positioned to cope Disaster risk reduction interventions, with the range of hazards that can cause particularly those focused on physical disaster – with ‘coping’ defined as ‘the infrastructure and assets such as manner in which people act within the buildings, often focus on reducing limits of existing resources and range of expectations to achieve various ends.’ Fragility function for direct and indirect flood damages in Semarang (Wisner, Blaikie et al., 2004 p. 113). 18 17 16 This wider conceptualisation of 15 14 vulnerability and the links between 13 12 social conditions and hazards is used 11 as a basis for identifying a very wide 10 9 range of potential points of leverage or 8 7 courses of action that could be used to (%) Damage rate 6 5 reduce disaster risk. These points of 4 leverage include many that focus on 3 2 addressing root causes, dynamic 1 0 pressures and unsafe conditions – that 0.2 0.40.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.41.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.42.6 2.8 3.0 is reversing the factors in the PAR model Inundation depth that create vulnerability as part of post Vegetation and farmland Residential Industries Business Indirect losses

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fragility. This is, for example, the case through specific strengthening measures with incorporating earthquake to reduce their probability of collapse strengthening into building codes or with respect, for example, to earthquake raising river levies to contain higher intensities, wind loading or other flood levels. In many cases the goal is to physical stresses. As resilience increases, ensure structures or the assets they the degree of damage for a given intensity protect suffer minimal or no damage in hazard decreases. Such approaches fall events with a specific magnitude. When largely under what we term design events are exceeded, such as strengthening the hard resilience. More when levies or dams fail, the result is nuanced concepts of what we would call often catastrophic. In other cases, soft resilience are, however, well however, structures are designed to established in scientific communities allow controlled failure and partial working on systems dynamics. The protection as the magnitude of events Resilience Alliance, one of the main forums increases. This would be the case, for for discussion within these communities, example, when low-level levies are used defines resilience in the following to protect agricultural lands with higher manner: levies for urban areas. Often in such ‘Ecosystem resilience is the capacity of When design events cases, lower level levies breach during an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance are exceeded, such large flood events and reduce pressure without collapsing into a qualitatively as when levies or on levies protecting more valuable assets. different state that is controlled by a Under these conditions, asset losses are different set of processes. A resilient dams fail, the result often step functions with distinct breaks ecosystem can withstand shocks and is often catastrophic. at different event magnitudes. rebuild itself when necessary. Resilience in social systems has the added capacity of humans to anticipate and plan for the Resilience – Hard and Soft Concepts future. Humans are part of the natural world. We depend on ecological systems Concepts of resilience take two broad for our survival and we continuously forms: impact the ecosystems in which we live from the local to global scale. Resilience 1. The direct strength of structures or is a property of these linked social- institutions when placed under ecological systems (SES). “‘Resilience’ as

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL pressure – an attribute we refer to as applied to ecosystems, or to integrated hard resilience; and systems of people and the natural 2. The ability of systems to absorb and environment, has three defining recover from the impact of disruptive characteristics: events without fundamental changes „ The amount of change the system can in function or structure – an attribute undergo and still retain the same we refer to as soft resilience. controls on function and structure „ The degree to which the system is In the disaster context, resilience is often capable of self-organisation treated as the simple inverse of fragility. „ The ability to build and increase the Engineers, for example, often refer to capacity for learning and increasing the resilience of a structure adaptation.”3

3 http://www.resalliance.org/576.php accessed on 4/12/07.

24 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE

Encroached river channel. © M Moench

Under the above concept, rather than when existing ones are disrupted). More nuanced simply strengthening structures or e. Mobility (an attribute of flexibility) concepts of what we institutions in relation to specific f. Risk pooling and spreading would call soft stresses (adding cement, etc.), soft (institutional arrangements or other resilience are well resilience attributes depend on the mechanisms for spreading and flexibility and adaptive capacity of the pooling the impacts of disruptions established in system as a whole. Practically, our prior on the system as a whole); scientific communities research in South Asia (Moench and g. Operational techniques for risk working on systems Dixit, 2004) indicates that resilience and reduction before and following dynamics. adaptive capacity in communities disruptions (techniques for depends on: directing the reorganisation process so that growth and conservation a. Flexibility (within livelihood phases do not increase rigidity and systems, economic systems, water ultimate vulnerability). management systems, institutional h. Convertible assets (the ability to systems) convert assets accumulated during b. Diversification (multiple periods of growth into other forms independent income flows to when disruptions occur) livelihood systems) c. The ability to learn from events (at All of the above contribute to system both individual and institutional resilience – that is the ability to adjust levels) to shocks and variability without d. Education (the knowledge base fundamental changes in overall system required to develop new systems structure.

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reduction. Instead it focuses on Investing in Change – evaluation of specific individual investments in specific locations. What do Concepts Mean On a more generic level, we believe investments in risk reduction and adaptation are likely to have high for Strategy? benefits in relation to costs when:

„ They address multiple hazards and serve multiple purposes (rather than being tied to one specific hazard or The conceptual foundations for use). Early warning systems, for understanding adaptation, disaster risk example, are much more likely to be reduction, fragility and resilience have a economically viable when they are wide variety of implications for part of multi-function organisations of any type that are communication systems and can seeking to develop a sound basis for provide warning of any hazard; investments to reduce risks and We believe investments encourage adaptation. While full „ They are embedded in development in risk reduction and discussion of this is beyond the scope of activities and are supported by adaptation are likely to this paper – and is indeed an evolving sustainable public or private sector business models. When cyclone have high benefits in field where many elements remain to be developed – some basic principles can shelters are built as multi-function relation to costs. be identified at this point. Here we’ll public buildings such as schools, for address two major areas: (1) the factors example, the sustaining business influencing the costs and benefits of risk model is education (with taxes or reduction and adaptation strategies; fees supporting services and the and (2) determining strategic points of maintenance of facilities to meet entry for change. specific day-to-day demands).

„ They have low sensitivity to core Costs and Benefits of Investing in assumptions and uncertainties. DRR and Adaptation Physical structures that are

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL designed to operate within very There is an emerging body of work that specific hydrological tolerance documents the financial benefits and ranges (flows, sediment loads, etc.) frequently large benefit/cost ratios are, for example, very sensitive if associated with disaster risk reduction changes in climate are likely to (FEMA, 1997; Uddin, 2002; Benson and exceed those ranges. Similarly, Twigg, 2004; Department for institutional arrangements that International Development, 2005; depend on very specific Donga and Mechler, 2005; MMC, 2005; assumptions (such as insurance Bouwer and Aerts, 2006; Messner, programmes that are designed on Penning-Rowsell et al., 2006; Benson, the basis of historical weather 2007; Mechler, 2005). This literature losses) may be highly sensitive if does not, however, generally emphasise assumptions are violated. This differences between strategies for risk point is elaborated on further below.

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„ They do not involve major distributional | FIGURE 1 | Fragility function for direct and indirect flood damages NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE issues. In many cases, actions that reduce exposure to climate risks for one group or set of assets, increase 100 risks for other groups. This is, for example, the classic case with flood embankment systems. Those outside the embankments largely benefit while those inside are subject to much more intense flooding.

Furthermore, each time an Damage Ratio (%) embankment is strengthened in one Inflection points/ location, the potential for breeching structural failure in other (now comparatively weaker) 0 locations increases. Issues of fairness Event intensity and the operational difficulties of compensating losers aside, when major distributional issues exist, the costs of compensating losers are often The factors influencing the economics Conceptually, in underestimated. of investing in risk reduction as part of natural situations the climate adaptation are illustrated damage due to climate „ They do not create new patterns of further below. events and other vulnerability while alleviating existing risks. Again, the case of levies and Conceptually, in natural situations the natural hazards embankments provides a classic damage due to climate events and probably almost example. Levies around New other natural hazards almost always always follow a logistic Orleans encouraged settlement of follow a rough logistic curve (Figure 1). curve. low-lying and highly flood-prone Losses are low (and there may even be areas. When Hurricane Katrina benefits) with low intensity events. occurred, the resulting damages were These losses increase at inflection far higher than would have been the points as various system thresholds case if development had not been are crossed and then probably level off enabled in these low-lying areas. past the point where most of the This type of issue is inherent in many system assets or attributes have been conventional DRR and climate damaged, disrupted or destroyed. protection strategies. Providing irrigation as a buffer against drought, Risk reduction and adaptation for example, is only as reliable as the interventions are designed to shift the source of water. Many farmers in logistic curve downward and to the Gujarat (India) were impoverished right. For a given magnitude event, when their wells went dry during the they are designed to reduce damages 2000-2002 drought because they had (costs) and, if possible, increase developed an intensive, high- benefits. The economic returns from investment, form of agriculture based investments in such interventions are on the assumption that groundwater represented by the space between the was an absolutely secure source pre-intervention and post-intervention (Moench and Dixit, 2004). curves (Figure 2)

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| FIGURE 2 | Fragility function with and without DRR | FIGURE 3 | Fragility function, hard resilience (e.g. embankments or dams)

100

100

Benefits of DRR Damage Ratio (%) Damage Ratio (%) Structural failure New inflection points 0 Event intensity

Pre-intervention without DRR Post-intervention with DRR 0 Flood depth

The approaches to risk Elements Influencing the Costs and unaffordable. As a result, to determine reduction that depend Benefits of Hard Resilience design thresholds architects and on hard resiliency tend While the above is true in a generic engineers need to have information on sense, the nature of disaster risk the recurrence intervals of specific to provide full reduction and adaptation strategies magnitude events – the ‘100 year flood’ protection until they have fundamental implications for the or ‘Category 5’ hurricane. Obtaining fail – and when they shape of the cost and benefit curves such information and determining its fail it can be and the nature of curves in areas that reliability is a particular challenge in the catastrophic. This is, aren’t protected. As previously noted, context of climate change. for example, the case approaches to risk reduction that with protective levies. depend on hard resiliency tend to A more nuanced version of gains and provide full protection until they fail – losses from hard resiliency measures, and when they fail it can be such as embankments, is shown in catastrophic. This is, for example, the Figure 4. In the “natural” situation case with protective embankments. without embankments, low levels of Either they keep flood water completely exposure to hazards such as flooding out of an area or they breach and allow actually create benefits (shaded area

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL flooding (Figure 3). “a”). Such benefits from low intensity- short duration floods include The curve in Figure 3 illustrates the groundwater recharge, drainage and the absolutely critical issue of threshold distribution of nutrients and soil. They levels that is inherent in most hard are eliminated in both protected zones resiliency measures. In order to design and those where water is concentrated a dam or a levy, some knowledge of the when hard resiliency measures are magnitude flood and storm flows is implemented. This loss of benefits essential. This is also the case for low essentially shifts the benefit/damage flows. If thresholds are exceeded, then curve upward in the section shown as structures fail, whereas below the “a” in figure 4 relative to natural thresholds protection tends to be baseline conditions. In some cases, for complete. Strengthening structures to example when levies cause water meet ‘any’ threshold is often logging, new damages in addition to

28 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

| FIGURE 4 | Impact area damage curve | FIGURE 5 | Loss of benefits (areas between embankments) NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE

Damage Damage 100 C 100

Additional direct losses due to DRR

B Illustrative 0 flood levels 0 Illustrative flood levels A 1 2 3 1 2 3 Loss of original benefits from small floods

With embankment Without embankment With embankment Natural baseline Loss of original benefits Additional direct Benefit Losses due to failure Gains due to DRR Loss due to DRR Benefit from small floods losses due to DRR

those in the baseline case are also part of curve and the increased damage curve When hard the costs. Losses may also be increased in Figure 5. This amount would need to resiliency during high magnitude events when be transferred from the economic measures protective structures fail. This benefits shown in Figure 4 (again the encourage the essentially shifts the upper portion of area marked “b” between the natural the damage curve upward and to the left baseline damage curve and the new concentration of causing the additional losses shown in reduced damage curve) as assets in protected the “c” section of Figure 4. The actual compensation for losses. In addition to areas, then a much benefits generated by the protective the practical difficulties in effecting such larger percentage measures are shown as the “b” section a transfer, it represents a reduction in of assets is at risk if in figure 4. The net benefits from hard the overall benefits from the DRR or the measures fail. protective measures are, as a result, the adaptation intervention. “b” section minus the “a” and “c” sections of the damage curve. A second feature to note about Figures 4 is the change in the percentages of total Figure 5 illustrates the distributional asset value at risk for events that exceed issue that is often present with this type the critical threshold that represents of hard resiliency measure. For areas levy failure in relation to baseline that are between embankments (as large conditions (area “c”). When hard areas are in some locations such as the resiliency measures encourage the Gangetic plains), damages can be concentration of assets in protected increased because flood waters are areas, then a much larger percentage of concentrated in much smaller areas. assets is at risk if the measures fail. The Populations living between levies lose additional amount at risk is illustrated the amount shown by the shaded area by the upper shaded area below the between the ‘natural baseline’ damage ‘reduced damage’ curve and above the

29 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

natural baseline after the critical damage ways that do not tend to depend heavily inflection point. on sharp threshold values. Instead, they tend to attenuate the damage curve, Moving beyond the simplified case of moving it down and to the right, as river levies, it is important to recognise illustrated in Figure 6. They also do not that most hard resilience interventions tend to create major ‘losers’ (such as the are part of systems that as a whole can be individuals owning assets in areas designed to fail incrementally rather than ‘between levies’) and thus greatly reduce catastrophically when critical thresholds compensation issues. In some cases, soft are reached. Dams, for example, are resiliency measures can create benefits designed in ways that allow flood waters that are in addition to those specifically to be released rapidly (often resulting in related to the risk reduction or adaptation some flooding) when storage capacities objectives. These new benefits add to the are full. Similarly, levies are generally value of the intervention as a whole. The constructed as systems where failure in examples below involving weather one section does not result in flooding of information and the construction of an entire protected area. This doesn’t multi-purpose flood buffer ponds In contrast to hard reduce the importance of threshold illustrate these features. resilience measures, values – but, it changes the nature of the soft resilience damage curve into a step function with Improvements in weather forecasting and measures alter damage multiple thresholds. communication are often seen as major curves relative to inputs for reducing the vulnerability of Elements Influencing the Costs and natural baselines in individuals, households to extreme Benefits of Soft Resilience events, such as those anticipated as a ways that do not tend In contrast to hard resilience measures, consequence of climate change. In this to depend heavily on soft resilience measures alter damage case, the benefits of forecasting accrue sharp threshold values. curves relative to natural baselines in through the changes in behaviour catalysed by new information. When storm warnings are provided, the | FIGURE 6 | Gains to soft resilience individuals who receive and respond to Damage the information move themselves and

100 their assets out of harm’s way or take other protective measures to reduce losses.

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL Individuals who don’t receive or don’t respond to the information don’t gain but, relative to their prior vulnerability levels, Gain due to B soft resilience neither do they lose. Losses associated with the early warning element of weather Illustrative 0 information do, however, occur. These A flood depth New benefits primarily take the form of costs incurred (fish production associated with, for example, reefs or when individuals take avoidance mangroves) behaviour – and then the predicted events don’t occur. This is, for example, the case when regions are evacuated in advance of projected storms, but storm paths change

Pre-intervention Post-intervention and the evacuation ends up being Benefit Reduced losses New benefits unnecessary. These gains and losses are

30 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

illustrated in Figure 7. the damage curve | FIGURE 7 | Fragility function information example NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE is shifted downward (arrow 1) to a new Damage level by the soft measures but the net 100 gains are reduced when people take avoidance measures against events that don’t occur (illustrated by arrow 2 shifting the damage curve back up part of Gains with perfect Original the way to the original baseline). information and response

Loss reductions associated with early 0 Event intensity 1 2 warning aren’t, however, the only benefit Gains actually achieved from a good weather information system. Provision of high quality weather information enables individuals and many businesses to ‘fine tune’ their activities in ways that increase productivity. Farmers, for example, often schedule irrigation based on weather Benefit Additional benefits Loss reduction projections. This is often critical to increasing yields and reducing pumping or other production costs. Weather accommodate climatic variability instead Economic forecasts are equally important in other of controlling it) can have similar diversification often industries such as construction and economic attributes as the more generates new sources tourism. These benefits should be institutional and financial measures of income as well as accounted as part of the benefits discussed above. The case of flood associated with weather information. retention ponds illustrates this well. reducing the risks Similar benefits are also present with Flood retention ponds reduce risk inherent in depending many other ‘soft resiliency’ interventions directly by absorbing excess flows. on one source alone. designed to support adaptation and Depending on how they can be operated reduce climate risks. Insurance, for and managed, however, they can have a example, is often part of a larger system of number of additional direct benefits. credit and banking facilities that generate Conceptually these include: a wide range of benefits. Economic diversification often generates new 1. Providing groundwater recharge; sources of income as well as reducing the 2. Serving as water sources for livestock, risks inherent in depending on one irrigation and other uses; and source alone. Social networks provide 3. Serving as a resource for the support during crises – but are also major development of aquaculture and other elements giving individuals access to ‘water-based’ livelihood activities. resources, jobs and other benefits. As a result, for low intensity events, the lower The above benefits, (illustrated in Figures 6 portion of the “damage” curve shows and 7) add to the direct risk reduction benefits other than those achieved benefits associated with flood protection. through loss reduction. They also don’t reduce or disrupt existing benefits that are already present as part of Soft resiliency forms of infrastructure the baseline context. Sediment delivery, for (infrastructure that is designed to example, isn’t blocked from areas by flood

31 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

retention ponds as it is by levies. As a benefits in addition to those associated result, the fertility benefits associated with with specific reductions in risk. A the natural system could be retained. This number of key questions must be combination of created and maintained evaluated including: Do measures reduce benefits represents, in many ways, the some benefits relative to baseline conditions? economic benefits of adapting livelihoods Do they depend heavily on information to flood-prone environments. Similar regarding thresholds – and, if so, is that benefits could be identified or created in information available? Do measures have other contexts. In coastal areas which are large distributional implications – are there particularly vulnerable to climate change, clear losers as well as beneficiaries? Can for example, the creation of brackish water measures to reduce risk also serve as income wetlands and fisheries could generation and adaptation opportunities? accommodate increases in sea-levels and Evaluating the costs and benefits of buffer storm effects while also allowing packages of DRR interventions as part the development of new sources of of climate adaptation requires, as a income. result, a broad economic analysis rather than one that focuses narrowly on As with hard resiliency measures, soft damages avoided. It will also in most Interventions designed resiliency measures would rarely be cases require a mix of hard and soft to respond to the implemented in isolation. In the resiliency interventions. underlying systemic Gangetic plain, for example, the development of flood retention ponds factors limiting could be coupled with activities to raise Identifying Points of Entry adaptive capacity or villages (a traditional method of flood causing vulnerability risk reduction in the Gangetic Plain), As already noted most contexts the are essential. increase drainage, improve insurance projects and other interventions and provide early warning. With this implemented by governments and other type of portfolio it may be possible to actors to reduce disaster risk focus provide equal levels of asset protection directly on the proximate causes of as river regulation using dams and disaster and tend to involve measures embankments would generate with few designed to increase hard resilience. As of the distributional issues – raising one the above conceptual discussions and village protects the inhabitants but some of the best research on risk

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL doesn’t adversely affect the inhabitants suggest, however, underlying systemic of other villages. Furthermore, packages factors are often of greater fundamental that emphasise soft resiliency importance to adaptation, disaster risk interventions are far less subject to reduction and resilience (Dreze, Sen et thresholds. Their viability does not al., 1995; Sen, 1999; ISDR, 2004; Wisner, depend heavily on information Blaikie et al., 2004). Consequently, regarding specific flows or the frequency interventions designed to respond to the of floods and storms to be effective and underlying systemic factors limiting economically viable. adaptive capacity or causing vulnerability are essential. These will Overall, the economics of investing in often involve ‘soft resilience’ measures disaster risk reduction as part of climate that contribute in fundamental – but adaptation depend heavily on specifics generally indirect – ways to adaptive and the wider network of costs and capacity and risk management.

32 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Direct Risk Reduction bulleted out below can serve as NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE Direct measures that appear, at least on warning flags regarding the viability of the surface, to reduce risk or support a measure: adaptation are often relatively easy to identify. They are interventions, in the 1. Low levels of diversification: Any form of structures, financial strategy that relies heavily on one mechanisms, communication systems, form of intervention or that reduces organisations and so on that can be seen diversification within systems has a as directly influencing the risk of high risk of failure if the disasters or supporting adaptive risk assumptions on which that strategy reduction. The embankment case is based prove unreliable. discussed extensively in preceding 2. Heavy dependence on key data sections is a case in point. The idea of and technical assumptions: If building embankments to keep floods infrastructure is built to withstand a out of vulnerable regions is something Category 3 storm, the benefits are most people can intuitively understand. heavily dependent on whether or The fact that people often move and not higher intensity storms occur. If settle in ‘protected’ areas and that this interventions are intended to will compound the scale of disasters provide interim protection as a basis Any strategy that relies when embankments breach – as they are for transition, then consequences heavily on one form of ultimately likely to do for a variety of depend heavily on assumptions intervention or that much more complex reasons – is not as regarding whether or not such reduces diversification easily understood (or if understood, not interventions actually contribute to seriously appreciated). As a result, transition or instead compound within systems has a evaluating the potential unintended future vulnerability. high risk of failure. indirect consequences of direct risk 3. Reliance on narrow assumptions reduction measures is perhaps the most regarding appropriate human important challenge in identifying effective incentives and behaviour: If points of entry for direct risk reduction. The approaches are framed based on complexity is further compounded by cultural perceptions of what groups the transitional role measures such as (such as rural farmers or fishermen) embankments can provide in some “should” want and how they situations as long as measures are in “should” live, then projected place to ensure they do not compound benefits will not occur if actual disaster risk. In coastal regions, for behaviors differ in response to the example, carefully designed opportunities and constraints such embankments can assist in controlling groups face in a given context. This salinity. While, given projected sea-level is a particular challenge in the rises, this may not be viable on the long- many rapidly urbanizing and term, in the short-term protection of globalizing societies where productive land can generate the livelihoods have traditionally been resources necessary for transition. based on agriculture or similar activities but incomes and While the process of identifying opportunities are increasingly potential indirect consequences of direct derived from other sources; risk reduction measures is complex and 4. Long lead times and high capital often site or case specific, the six criteria investments required: If the

33 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

measures require substantial time institutional or other forms of and investment to put in place and memory and learning; are intended to repay this through 2. Environmental systems –the condition benefits generated over the long-term, of basic land, water and air resources then they are heavily dependent on along with the productive difficult to predict conditions in that ecosystems they support; future and are especially vulnerable 3. Livelihood and economic systems – the to the impacts of climate change; manner in which systems spread risk 5. Major distributional differences through diversification combined between groups “benefiting” from with their ability to generate the intervention and others who surpluses and distribute them in a bear direct costs: If there are major manner that provides access to the “losers” well as as “gainers” from an assets all sections of the population intervention (whether direct or require for strategy shifting as well as simply in relation to perceptions of day to day survival; equity) then conflicts can undermine 4. Communication systems – the ability of objectives; and information to flow in and out of 6. Lack of a clear business model that areas, both the technology itself and While system level will ensure risk reduction measures the institutions and rules governing interventions are are maintained over the long term, that flow; often difficult to particularly during extended 5. Transport Systems – the ability of periods when extreme events do not goods, people and resources to flow relate directly to risk occur: If the source of funding or in and out of areas; reduction or climate other inputs required to sustain an 6. Financial systems – the ability of funds adaptation, they are organization or set of infrastructure to flow in and out and for assets to be often of much more is unclear during the potentially long converted as required; fundamental gaps between “events” is unclear, 7. Organizational systems – the ability to importance to risk then sustainability is highly self-organize following disruption as exposure than direct questionable. well as during more linear and controlled phases of change measures. Systems Level (Indirect) processes; and In addition to interventions that are 8. Adapted infrastructure systems – the directly targeted at specific risks, points degree to which physical and

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL of entry for reducing risk and institutional structures are designed supporting adaptation are present to accommodate and respond flexibly within systems. In previous research on to climatic variability and change responses to floods and droughts, a including extreme events. variety of systemic factors were identified that contribute to livelihood While interventions at this level are resilience and adaptive capacity often difficult to relate directly to risk (Moench and Dixit, 2004). Adaptive reduction or climate adaptation, they are capacity and livelihood resilience often of much more fundamental depend, in essence, on: importance than direct risk reduction measures. Direct measures for risk 1. Knowledge systems – the basic reduction are often of an interim nature education required to access multiple – humans respond to the risks they job and skill markets along with perceive in a given context and, as the

34 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

immediacy of that risk perception floods and droughts. At the same time, NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE dissipates the willingness to invest time where communicable diseases are or other resources in risk reduction will concerned, the increased mobility of dissipate as well. Adaptive capacity populations greatly increases the and the ability to respond to risks as probability of major global epidemics. they emerge are, as a result, maintained over time more by the functioning of Phasing: Windows of Opportunity underlying systems than by direct Points of entry for initiating activities to measures. reduce risk or support adaptation depend heavily on timing. In most Adaptive capacity depends at a basic situations, government and level on the ability to self-organize, international programmes emphasise respond flexibly, convert assets and the gradual development of capacities shift strategies as risks emerge or during as part of on-going development the period following disruptive events. activities. Such contexts, however, tend This is, in turn, depends in an only to allow incremental change – the absolutely fundamental manner on the refinement of policies, gradual presence and functioning of underlying development of economic or systems. As a result, activities that institutional systems, the diffusion of Crises catalyse strengthen such systems and improve new technologies and so on. behavioural and access for vulnerable groups to them Fundamental changes, particularly other changes that represent a critical point of entry for those that disrupt embedded patterns would be impossible supporting risk reduction and adaptive and relationships, are both difficult to capacity. envision and undertake when current in "normal" times. systems are functioning in a normal It is important to emphasize here that manner. Crises precipitate other forms care must be taken in identifying of change. potential points of intervention to reduce risk through interventions at the This dynamic was, cynically but very level of systems. Although the bullets accurately, captured by P. Sainath in listed above identify what we believe are the title and content of his seminal critical factors that contribute to book ‘Everybody loves a good drought’ adaptive capacity and risk reduction in (Sainath, 1996). Crises catalyse relation to floods, droughts and similar behavioural and other changes that extreme climate events, little actual would be impossible in ‘normal’ times. global experience exists regarding the In many cases such changes are impact of specific “systems level” ephemeral and dissipate over time – interventions to manage climate or other the disaster response community often risks. This is a major emerging area highlights the manner in which where experience, research and further political will and the social urgency for conceptual development are essential. change wither rapidly as relief Clearly the role of specific systems in transitions to reconstruction. The chaos reducing - or increasing risk - depends and humanitarian urgency that on the nature of the hazard. Transport characterises relief contexts also is not systems, the foundation for mobility, conducive to the development or clearly play a major role in reducing the implementation of strategies that livelihood and food security impacts of respond to longer-term risks.

35 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

The above said, however, crises often do In discussing the windows of catalyse basic changes in conditions and opportunity for change created by systems. Hurricane Katrina caused the disaster it is extremely important largest migration in the history of the recognize the limitations of existing United States since the Civil War of the terminology and the conceptual early 1860s.4 In contrast to a pre-Katrina frameworks different groups of actors population of over 400,000 (484,674 in use to frame their arenas of action. The the 2000 United States census), according disaster management community has to Logan (2006), the full-time population developed relatively broad conceptual of the city was estimated at only 150,000 definitions for the relief, recovery in January 2006. Logan further indicates (damage limitation) and risk reduction that ‘if the future city were limited to the (preparation) phases of activity. population previously living in zones Drawing on these definitions, undamaged by Katrina it would risk humanitarian actors have developed losing about 50% of its white residents specific types of relief, reconstruction but more than 80% of its black and rehabilitation or disaster risk population’ (Logan, 2006, p.16). reduction programmes for each of these Following Katrina debates are underway phases. These programmes are generally The disaster regarding approaches to water and land separate from the equally broadly management management throughout the U.S. Gulf conceptualized sector-focused community has region that would have been unthinkable programmes that are part of most before the inadequacy of existing levy national development strategies. When developed relatively systems was so unequivocally we emphasize the windows of broad conceptual demonstrated. In India the famines and opportunity to reduce risk during the definitions for the droughts of the 1940s and 1960s reconstruction process that follows relief, recovery provided much of the impetus for both disasters, this does not necessarily imply (damage limitation) the Green Revolution (which represented that DRR activities of the type often and risk reduction a fundamental change in agriculture) promoted by humanitarian (preparation) phases and the development of major support organizations can easily be incorporated programmes (such as the Public in reconstruction programmes. Existing of activity. Distribution System) that continue to the experience, in fact, suggests that this may present. In the Netherlands the highly face quite basic challenges - see, for sophisticated water management example the array of recovery studies

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL systems owe their establishment to supported by ProVention (http:// disastrous floods and levy failures that www.proventionconsortium.org/ occurred in the 1950s. Overall, ?pageid=18#rel) and the report of the identifying points of entry for making Tsunami Evaluation Commission fundamental changes that reduce (Telford & Cosgrave, 2006). In the case of disaster risk and support adaptation the Pakistan Earthquake, documented requires strategies that address and later in this book, we are skeptical that bridge the gap between incremental many of the activities currently being change processes that characterise most implemented in the name of risk development contexts and those that can reduction will have much impact. At the occur during the windows of same time, changes in communications, opportunity created by crisis. transport and other systems following

4 http://www.epodunk.com/top10/diaspora/index.html. & http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0912/p01s01-ussc.html

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(and catalysed by) the earthquake may The Development Context NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE have fundamentally reshaped risk Windows of opportunity for supporting exposure. Similarly, the major risk reduction and adaptation as part of interventions to control risk in the an ongoing development process exists Netherlands and India discussed above in the array of projects being did occur within the window of implemented by governments, multi- opportunity when awareness and lateral and other organisations in a political will were high following multitude of fields. Identifying the disasters. Learning to work with this openings for action in these projects is window and identifying the points of challenging. Screening tools are being entry for doing so effectively is, as a developed by the World Bank, result, both a major opportunity and a ProVention and other organisations to major challenge. Doing so may require identify projects that have particular both the disaster management and relevance for climate adaptation and development communities to move risk reduction. These tools can be used beyond the frameworks used to define to identify windows of opportunity, programmes. such as during project development and

© Fawad Khan

Mountainside slip immediately north of Muzaffarabad

37 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

interim review phases, where activities require fundamental changes in can be inserted or strengthened. They livelihood, land-use or other such also represent a critical window of systems. As the case studies presented opportunity for review to ensure that later in this book clearly illustrate, mal-adaptive activities do not occur. individuals, communities, policy makers Finally, in addition to such tools for and other actors tend to focus on problems identifying points of entry for risk or or opportunities present in their adaptation-specific interventions, the immediate context. As a result, development context represents the primary approaches to development, whether window of opportunity for strengthening community-based or driven at national the underlying systems that enable or policy levels, are unlikely to make constrain adaptation. fundamental rather than incremental changes in response to risks or needs that The development context presents, as are not immediate or have not been previously noted, particular challenges for previously experienced. In most cases, as the implementation of approaches that a result, the development context ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL

38 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

represents a poor window of opportunity reduce risk or enable adaptation. Yet if NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE for making rapid or large changes in basic planning and the building of awareness can systems. This is clearly illustrated by the take place in advance of disasters in National Adaptation Plans of Action vulnerable regions, they could serve as (NAPA) that have been prepared by windows of opportunity. Existing several countries. Most of the livelihood and infrastructure systems interventions contained in the NAPAs are often disrupted and local represent business as usual – incremental populations are often more willing – or strengthening of existing programmes pushed – to make basic changes than at that address climate related hazards but other times. Disasters are also times little that would fundamentally change when large pulses of funding become current patterns of vulnerability (Moench suddenly available and when political and Stapleton, 2007). support exists for change. As a result, if strategic approaches can be developed Although the development context in advance that support effective change provides little opportunity for in highly disrupted contexts, disasters restructuring systems, it is the primary could serve as windows of opportunity period of time when emerging problems to address some of the long-term, root, can be identified and the analysis causes of vulnerability and Disasters are times necessary to envision alternatives can unsustainable development. when large pulses of occur. Throughout the world funding become governments and other organisations Learning to work more effectively with suddenly available and are currently analysing the impact the post-disaster recovery context could climate change is likely to have on also contribute to better understanding when political support hazard risks in different regions. of development processes in general. exists for change. Whether the hazards are related to Virtually all development activities cyclone paths, sea-level rise or drought, focus on linear processes of change. the likely distribution of climate related They involve interventions that are hazards is increasingly well known. designed to build social capacity and This knowledge and the opportunity for infrastructure in an incremental advanced planning that it presents planned manner. While this type of could be utilised as a point of entry for work is important, recent research on bridging the gap between the complex systems emphasises that incremental processes of change and the change is, at fundamental levels, a much more abrupt opportunities for pulsed process. It often occurs in bursts change that can emerge in post-disaster or phases that are catalysed by contexts. disruption in pre-existing systems. Instability, in effect, frees resources and The Post-Disaster Context shatters conventional ways of doing Actions to provide humanitarian relief things. This often leads to fundamental and begin the process of re-establishing reorganisation of economic, social and infrastructure and livelihood systems livelihood systems. Reorganisation sets characterise, as they should, most post- the stage for the next phase of more disaster contexts. Such contexts are not gradual ‘linear’ development. conducive to long-term planning or the Attempting to recreate pre-existing identification of avenues for conditions merely recreates pre-existing restructuring systems in ways that patterns of vulnerability.

39 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Viewed in this way, disruptions, develop awareness of the need for including the extreme forms that cause fundamental changes – even if such disaster, are windows for structural changes can only be implemented rebirth. As a result, learning to work following disruptive events. Just as relief with the pulses of change that organisations pre-position supplies and accompany disaster could lead to other materials in regions that are fundamental new insights into known to be vulnerable to earthquakes development processes. By learning to or other natural hazards, advanced work with pulsed change it may be planning and dialogue with key possible to identify new windows of stakeholders in regions that are opportunity and strategic points of entry vulnerable to climate risks could enable Learning to work with that are fundamentally different and can restructuring as part of post-disaster the pulses of change achieve results at a much larger scale recovery processes. Processes for that accompany than conventional linear ‘development’ working with communities to identify disaster could lead to processes. sources of vulnerability – and much more importantly, to envision fundamental new Strategically, identification of vulnerable alternatives – represents we believe a insights into regions and the development of shared key opportunity for bridging the gap development visions regarding alternative futures in between proactive development processes. such regions could be used to plan and processes and reactive disaster recovery.

The battery is dead, recording drum is broken and there is no paper. What can I do?

The clouds look pretty dark. How is the rainfall there? ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL

40 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

specific types of interventions within NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE Moving from complex systems relate to resilience and adaptive capacity. That is to say, both Concepts to Action conceptually and practically how they enable strategy shifting or increase resilience by addressing specific constraints or responding to specific opportunities. To make this clear it is worth reiterating the core factors prior research and our own more recent analysis suggests contribute to How can organisations working on resilience and adaptive capacity within disaster risk reduction or programmes to communities. These include: support climate adaptation move from the above principles to logically 1. Diversification of livelihood activities, identifiable and justifiable courses of assets and financial resources action in specific areas? The approach particularly into non-farm and other outlined below represents an initial activities that have low levels of attempt to move beyond screening of sensitivity to climatic variability or existing projects for climate risks toward extreme events; the development of strategies that 2. Mobility and communication, respond to location specific contexts. particularly the ability of goods, people, information and services to flow between regions in ways that A Systematic Process enable local populations to access markets, assets, the media and other The approach has four core steps: resources beyond the likely impact of scoping, building common understanding, specific climatic events; structured review of potential strategies and 3. Ecosystem maintenance, particularly finally, where necessary, financial maintenance of the basic ecosystems evaluation of the costs and anticipated services (such as drinking water) benefits interventions are likely to have. without which local populations These steps are designed to enable cannot survive; identification of specific courses of 4. Organisation, particularly the social action that contribute to climate risk networks, organisations and reduction and adaptive capacity either institutional systems that enable directly or by strengthening underlying people to organise responses as systems. Ideally these steps should be constraints or opportunities emerge; followed by implementation and then 5. Adapted infrastructure, particularly cycle back to a new round in which the design of physical structures (for incorporation of experience and water, transport, communication, learning replace scoping but the process etc…) in ways that can maintain otherwise remains the same. their basic structure and function regardless of changes in climatic The core element required throughout systems; all of the above steps is a clear 6. Skills and knowledge, in particular the understanding of the manner in which ability to learn and the basic

41 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

educational skills required to shift never provide information of that livelihood strategies as required; specificity. Information that historical 7. Asset convertibility, the development storm and flood magnitudes do not of assets or markets that enable reflect those likely to be encountered in populations to transform the nature the future can, however, be extremely of assets and their use as conditions useful for everything from the design of evolve; and structures to disaster planning. 8. Hazard specific risk reduction, the development of early warning, Second, scoping processes need to assess spatial planning, implementation of vulnerabilities, capacities (vulnerability building codes, establishment of capacity analysis – VCA) and the factors community DRR organisations and enabling or constraining different other systems to reduce exposure and groups or regions in responding to vulnerability to known climate current and the array of potential future related hazards. climate conditions. This assessment needs to be guided by factors such as the eight basic elements identified in the Scoping previous section that contribute to livelihood resilience and adaptive Climate hazards In virtually any situation, scoping is the capacity. It also needs to be conducted and potential first step toward identification of using a systemic perspective that strategies for potential avenues for risk reduction or recognises the links between addressing them supporting adaptation. Because climate constraints, opportunities and the hazards and potential strategies for behaviours of entities (individuals, cut across scales addressing them cut across scales and communities, businesses, etc.) at levels and sectors. sectors, scoping activities need to as ranging from the household to the well. In order to identify initial points of region. Depending on the scale and entry for reducing climate risks, scoping focus of the assessment, information processes need to achieve three required will include the basic objectives: secondary ‘data’ (statistics, maps, policies, programmes, etc.) that many First, they need to pull together current organisations already gather on natural information on the nature of the risks hazards and vulnerability. It will also

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL associated with climate change for the include the wide array of local level particular area. Translating global PRA and stakeholder processes scientific information on climate into currently used in many DRR or formats usable at the local level is a key development activities at local levels. part of this first step. It is important to Finally, it will need to include key actors recognise that this information does not and activities in the private sector. The need to be highly specific in order to be importance of this is clearly illustrated useful. Individuals and organisations by the case of disaster risk reduction in often wish to specify, for example, the Muzaffarabad (Pakistan) discussed in maximum magnitude of storms that may Chapter 8 of this publication. Our be encountered or whether or not their analysis suggests that following the specific area will encounter floods of a earthquake major improvements in given magnitude – but advanced communications, transport, financial information on climate change may systems and organisation, most of it

42 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

driven by the private sector has addressing those risks is the second NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE contributed far more to sustainable risk basic step in moving from concepts reduction than the much discussed – but toward courses of action that can be in reality relatively minor – attempts at implemented. The immediate objective incorporating DRR in government and here is to move from a preliminary relief programmes. identification of potential strategies to a set of approaches that could actually Third, the scoping process needs to be implemented. This is, however, generate initial insights regarding how only one element. The larger objective emerging climate risks are perceived and is to build a common basis for learning the responses (if any) different groups of that can be sustained over the long actors are already taking or believe may time period essential to address be appropriate. The core objective here is climate related risks. The essential to generate understanding of how element in this step is shared learning. different actors (individuals, households, businesses, etc.) are actually Climate change poses risks for regions responding to the constraints and that have never previously been opportunities they perceive or already encountered. The perceptions and face. Who is doing well and why is just activities of different communities at Climate change as important for identifying constraints the local level (whether villages, poses risks that have and opportunities as identification of the businesses, governments or other never previously factors affecting particularly vulnerable actors) are, as a result, highly unlikely been encountered. groups. This type of understanding is a to represent an adequate basis for core source of insights on strategies to identifying or responding to the risks address risk that is generally not and vulnerabilities climate change captured in conventional VCA processes will create. At the same processes. time, the perceptions of higher-level actors (whether climate scientists, Fourth, the scoping process needs to business entities or government identify a preliminary set of potential entities), rarely reflect an strategies for risk reduction and understanding of local conditions or supporting adaptation that: (1) address the incentives driving behaviour at the underlying systemic factors local levels as households and identified in the previous section; (2) communities respond to the build as far as possible on the opportunities and constraints they behavioural incentives, opportunities face. Shared learning processes that are and constraints facing different groups; structured in relationship to the basic and (3) respond to perceptions of climate systemic factors known to contribute to risks at the local level and from emerging resilience and adaptive capacity are, as a global scientific information. result, essential.

The case studies outlined later in this Building Common Understanding book illustrate the shared learning dialogue process partners in our Building common understanding of the programmes are developing and risks associated with climate change testing as a core step in moving from and the potential strategies for the preliminary understanding and

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strategies identified during scoping, shared learning activities should be used toward a menu of practical activities. It to develop a list of potential actions that is important to recognise that shared relate both to the core factors contributing learning dialogue processes are not a to resilience and adaptive capacity and one-time activity. Developing effective have sufficient support to enable responses to climate change is implementation among involved actors. inherently a long-term process that, at a global level, will continue indefinitely. Knowledge, insights, challenges and Structured Review of strategies will evolve substantially over Identified Actions time in response to dynamic climate and social contexts. As a result, continuous Following identification of potential processes for translating new insights courses of action during scoping and into practical courses of action will be initial shared learning dialogues, required. Shared learning – that is structured review is important to ensure processes for building understanding that these actually do address both the between communities of actors at all specific risks emerging as a consequence levels – will be essential throughout. At of climate change and the core factors a practical level, initial scoping and contributing to resilience and adaptive

Sample Matrix Potential Arenas for Intervention - A Coastal Example Livelihood and Education and Communication Economic Skill Financial and for Adaptation Adapted Diversification Ecosystem Organisation Developmment Risk Spreading (climate specific) Infrastructure Risk & Adaptation Specific Interventions Adding livelihood Mangrove and Formation of DRR Training about Storm insurance Storm warning Cyclone shelter activities outside reefs as storm and rescue cyclone relief system coastal areas buffers committee

Non-farm, non- Salinity control Establishment of Targeted Catastrophe bonds Strengthening Breakwater fishing livelihoods structures state DRR and strengthening of communication relief organisations construction to towers increase resilience to storms Underlying systems for risk reduction and adaptation ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL Increasing ability Developing Increasing the Skills, such as Strengthen Cell phones and Improving to access global productive number and global languages, banking system other personal transport systems and regional brackish and diversity of civil that enable and improve communication labour and other saline water society populations to access to it devices markets fishery and organisations in access global labour farming systems coastal regions – and other markets the right to organise Changing General Controlling Incubating new Coastal specific skill Strengthen Increasing access approaches to diversification pollution to enable forms of business training remittance flows to and freedom of infrastructure within economic long-term organisations that (aquaculture, the media design (houses, and livelihood productivity of can utilise and tourism, etc.) roads, bridges, systems coastal manage coastal etc.) to account ecosystems as resources for uncertainty they change

Note: columns can be added and activities can be targeted at specific vulnerable groups

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capacity. This step has two core 4. Long lead times and high capital NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE components: strategy mapping and investments required; strategy evaluation. 5. Major distributional differences; and 6. Lack of a clear business model. Strategy mapping involves locating identified activities or strategies within a This step will assist in weeding out matrix that clearly identifies the strategies that may be popular or appear relationship between proposed activities appropriate at a first cut but that on and the factors that either directly or more systematic evaluation have indirectly contribute to risk reduction and substantial flaws. adaptive capacity. This mapping process is intended to force consideration of the Financial Evaluation real links between specific activities Evaluation of the costs and benefits of and underlying concepts. It is also identified risk reduction activities can intended as a mechanism to ensure that serve as a final step in moving from approaches are balanced (i.e. that they concepts to concrete courses of action. don’t focus heavily on one element such Methods for this have been developed as structural measures to promote hard and tested in a variety of situations resilience while ignoring other core (FEMA, 1997; Uddin, 2002; MMC, 2005; Quantitative and dimensions). A sample matrix for Bouwer and Aerts, 2006; Messner, qualitative cost- coastal areas is included here showing Penning-Rowsell et al., 2006) and many benefit analyses can illustrative factors contributing to of the basic principles have been highlight sensitivities climate risk reduction and adaptation outlined here previously. These directly and at a systemic level. methodologies are currently being to climate refined and will be available in variabilities. Strategy evaluation involves analysis of the subsequent publications. likely risks and effectiveness associated with each activity mapped out within the above In the climate case, evaluations will matrix. The core goal is to ensure that need to be derived based on scenarios each of the component activities does and historical data. While such not itself carry a high level of scenarios and data can generate uncertainty with respect to its important insights, they cannot be relied effectiveness in supporting risk on as a guide to future conditions. This reduction and adaptive capacity. This said, it is important to recognise that is the critical stage for returning to and scenario-based approaches can provide evaluating identified activities in clear indications of the sensitivity of relation to the warning flags discussed cost-benefit expectations in relation to in detail in the preceding section on key uncertainties or assumptions. Some direct risk reduction. These flags are: strategies will have high benefit to cost ratios regardless of future conditions – 1. Low levels of diversification; that is they will be robust under 2. Heavy dependence on key data and uncertainty – while the benefits and technical assumptions; costs associated with other strategies 3. Reliance on narrow assumptions will depend heavily on conditions. regarding appropriate human incentives Quantitative and qualitative cost-benefit and behaviour; analyses can highlight such sensitivities.

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Governance of the Process systems. This role, however, must be balanced by the regulatory ability of This section has focused on outlining a government and the voices of civil relatively linear process organisations society organisations if access is to be could use for moving from broad assured for all vulnerable groups rather concepts of climate risk and adaptation than just the wealthy. to practical courses of action. It is important to recognise, however, that In addition to access, vulnerability is processes such as the one outlined above also influenced by the way will be occurring in highly contested technological choices are made. contexts. The nature of problems, viable Whether the technology in question is a solutions, potential courses of action, physical embankment system for ethical and other considerations are all controlling floods or an institutional likely to be contested. Governance of the safety net, such as an insurance system, process will, as a result, be a critical the choice and design of technologies consideration. often depends on the degree to which decision makers in governments, While a full discussion of the organisations and the market hear and Vulnerability is also governance considerations is beyond are subject to pressure from diverse influenced by the the scope of this writing, one key point voices within society. The degree to way technological is essential to make here: pluralistic which diverse voices ‘can be heard’ is, strategies involving civil society, the private we believe, heavily influenced by the choices are made. sector and governments in an environment balance between individualistic market where information and perspectives can be structures, hierarchically organised effectively communicated are essential. government entities and egalitarian social organisations. This is, in turn, a The underlying factors determining how critical factor determining whether or different groups of people cope with not the approaches proposed will be conditions that can cause disaster are accessible to, and protect the interests of, central to understanding potential different groups. This does not have so responses to climate change. We believe much to do with the presence of a these factors are rooted in the dynamics of specific form of government but with the social exclusion and the relationships nature of pluralistic societies and the

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL between technology and the democracy of multiple institutions, entitlements and institutional pluralism. Flexibility and the rights systems that shape them. ability to switch strategies are fundamental to resilience and adaptive What does this mean on a practical capacity. Social, political and economic level? It implies that to be effective, systems that deny groups access to key approaches must involve the private technologies – whether busses for sector, civil society and government evacuation, communications, insurance actors on an equal basis. The presence or credit – reduce their flexibility, of multiple voices channelled through increase their vulnerability and leave shared learning dialogue processes and them disproportionately subject to loss public debate are the foundation of when extreme events occur. The case of effective governance for long-term Muzaffarabad in Pakistan clearly processes such as the ones required for illustrates the central role of the private responding effectively to the challenges sector in creating and maintaining these of climate change.

46 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

more effective than generic attempts to NATURAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH OTHER TOADAPTING RISKS CLIMATE THE AND CHANGE Conclusions target first order risks.

In addition to underlying systems, the post-disaster context represents a largely unexplored terrain for risk reduction and adaptation. There is, of course, a fundamental ethical dilemma in focusing on the post-disaster reconstruction context for reducing vulnerabilities that have already been The evolution of effective strategies identified as affecting large areas and for reducing disaster risks and large populations. When adapting to climate change represents accumulating scientific and other a fundamental challenge for human evidence clearly indicates the high society on which our common future in vulnerability of populations or specific many ways rests. Some responses groups in coastal and other regions, targeted at specific risks or fully responses are essential. This said, the documented changes in climate, are social organisation of human societies essential. There is, however, – the hugely differing perspectives and substantial uncertainty regarding how political positions they encompass – changes in climatic conditions will often makes it impossible to respond affect local areas. Furthermore, proactively to creeping or pulsed disasters – whether climate related or environmental problems (Glantz, caused by other natural hazards – 1999a; Glantz, 1999b). Few societies often occur intermittently over long would, for example, support major time scales. As a result, it is often population relocations or huge difficult to sustain – or even identify – investments to alter basic narrowly targeted responses. The infrastructure in coastal regions now ability to adapt and respond effectively as a response to sea-level rise or the to surprise and change, however, likelihood of increases in storm depends as much on underlying activity. Political and popular support systems that enable communication, for actions of this nature to reduce transport, finance, self-organisation future vulnerability is far more likely and learning as it does on risk specific when existing systems have been interventions. These systems – many of disrupted. On a practical basis, which can be developed and therefore, change will occur in pulses. maintained through sustainable Building understanding and public, private or community based identifying the types of changes that operational models – represent a can be both technically effective and largely overlooked dimension in DRR socially viable represents, as a result, a and climate adaptation debates. major potential avenue for responding Courses of action to strengthen them to hazards and the risks associated may, however, ultimately prove far with climate change.

47 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Bibliography

Benson, C. (2007). Economic Analysis. Tools for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, ProVention Consortium: 12. Benson, C. and E. J. Clay (2002). Disasters, Vulnerability and the Global Economy. Washington, D.C., World Bank. Benson, C. and J. Twigg (2004). Measuring Mitigation: Methodologies for assessing natural hazard risks and the net benefits of mitigation — A scoping study. Geneva, ProVention Consortium: 36. Bouwer, L. M. and J. C. J. H. Aerts (2006). Financing climate change adaptation. Disasters 30(1): 49-63. Department for International Development, (2005). Natural Disaster and Disaster Risk Reduction Measures: A Desk Review of Costs and Benefits. J. Samuel. London, Department for International Development, DFID: 45. Dilley, M., R. S. Chen, et al. (2005). Natural Disaster Hotspots: A global risk analysis. Washington, D.C., The World Bank: 132. Donga, M. and R. Mechler (2005). Cost-Benefit Analysis - A useful instrument for assessing the efficiency of natural disaster risk management, One World and GTZ. Dreze, J., A. Sen, et al., Eds. (1995). The Political Economy of Hunger. New Delhi, Oxford University Press. FEMA, F. E. M. A. (1997). Report on Costs and Benefits of Natural Hazard Mitigation. Washington DC, Federal Emergency Management Agency: 57. Glantz, M. H., Ed. (1999). Creeping Environmental Problems and Sustainable Development in the Aral Sea Basin. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. Gunderson, L. H. (1999). Resilience, flexibility and adaptive management - - antidotes for spurious certitude? Conservation Ecology 3(1): 7. Gunderson, L. H. and C. S. Holling, Eds. (2002). Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington, D.C., Island Press. Holling, C. S. (2001). Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological and Social Systems. Ecosystems 4: 390-405. Holling, C. S. and G. K. Meffe (1996). Command and Control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management. Conservation Biology 10(2): 328-337. Hoyois, P. and D. Guha-Sapir (2004). Disasters caused by flood : Preliminary data for a 30 year assessment of their occurrence and human impact. Health and Flood Risk Workshop; A Strategic Assessment of Adaptation Processes and Policies, University of East Anglia, Norwich, International workshop organised by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. IRIN, I. R. I. N. (2005). Disaster Reduction and the human cost of disaster. IRIN Web special, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: 41. ISDR (2004). Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. New York and Geneva, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, United Nations. ISDR (2005). Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. Kabat, P., W. v. Vierssen, et al. (2005). Climate proofing the Netherlands. Nature 438(17): 283-284. Logan, J. R. (2006). The Impact of Katrina: Race and Class in Storm-Damaged Neighborhoods, Brown University: 16. Mechler, R. (2005). Cost-benefit Analysis of Natural Disaster Risk Management in Developing and Emerging Countries. Manual. Working paper, GTZ, Eschborn.

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CLIMATE RISKSADAPTING TO WITH OTHER ASSOCIATED HAZARDS NATURAL Messner, F., E. Penning-Rowsell, et al. (2006). Guidelines for Socio-economic Flood Damage Evaluation. FLOODsite Project. Wallingford, European Community Sixth Framework Programme for European Research and Technological Development: 181. MMC, M. M. C. (2005). Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities: Volume 2- Study Documentation. Washington DC, National Institute of Building Sciences: 144. Moench, M. and A. Dixit, Eds. (2004). Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Strategies for Responding to Floods and Droughts in South Asia. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International, Boulder; Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal, Kathmandu. Moench, M. and S. Stapleton (2007). Water, Climate, Risk and Adaptation. Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate, The Netherlands: 88. Sainath, S. (1996). Everybody loves a good drought: Stories from India’s poorest districts. New Delhi, India, Penguin Books India. Sen, A. (1999). Poverty and Famines. Delhi, Oxford University Press. Uddin (2002). Disaster Management System in Southwestern Indiana. Natural Hazards Review 3(1): 19-30. Wisner, B., P. Blaikie, et al. (2004). At Risk: Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. London, Routledge. World Meterological Organization, Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate, et al. (2006). Risk Management, Thematic Document, Framework Theme 5. 4th World Water Forum, Mexico City, CONAGUA.

48 CHAPTER3

Climate Change and South Asian Impacts

Sarah Opitz-Stapleton „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

adaptation strategies that can and should Introduction be taken, remain varied. Yet, uncertainty about specific impacts or their severity cannot be used as an excuse for inaction. Even if we were to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the year 2000 levels, we are still committed to warming because of the time lagged heat release from the oceans. All people are currently affected by variations in climate, though some are affected more than others. Climate change Global and regional climates are will exacerbate climate variability and the complex, dynamic systems involving inequity of impacts. Some will benefit feedback between the atmosphere, oceans, from climate change, whereas extremely and land surfaces as an exchange of heat vulnerable populations without the energy. Variability is inherent and regional capacity to adapt might not survive.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS ecosystems have evolved to accommodate a range of climate variation. Yet, we are The countries in South Asia have some of We can no longer now entering a period in which variability the highest population densities in the deny that human is increasing as the global climate system world and some of the most climate actions are altering transitions to a new, unknown state. vulnerable populations. In India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, agriculture is the the climate system. While extremely spatially and temporally detailed impacts of climate change remain primary livelihood of many individuals unknown on both global and regional and is directly dependent on the regional levels, enough data now exists to climate pattern, which is dominated by the demonstrate significant temperature and monsoon. Changes to the wind patterns precipitation trends in various regions and sea surface temperatures, for example, around the world and alteration of storm will alter the monsoon. Glaciers in the tracks. We can no longer deny that human Himalayas supply the baseflows to many actions are altering the climate system. The of the rivers, such as those in the Gangetic recent IPCC summary report (2007) states Basin. The IPCC (2007) has noted that “warming of the climate system is glacier melt in the Himalayan region is unequivocal, as is now evident from increasing and will continue to increase in observations of increases in global average all global warming scenarios. With the air and ocean temperatures, widespread reduction and possible disappearance of melting of snow and ice, and rising global the Himalayan glaciers, the water supply average sea-level” (IPCC, 2007: 5). of millions throughout South Asia will be Furthermore, there is a “very high significantly affected. The coastal areas are confidence1 that the globally averaged net also particularly vulnerable to changes in effect of human activities since 1750 has mean sea-level. For example, significant been one of warming” (p. 5). portions of the Tamilnadu coastline have an elevation only slightly above sea-level Perceptions about the existence of climate (refer to the case study on Tamilnadu) that change, human involvement, its potential are already struggling with 12m storm impacts, and the sets of mitigation and surges. A mean sea-level rise of 0.5m

1 In the 2007 IPCC report, a very high confidence signifies that an event has at least a 9 out of 10, or higher, chance of being correct.

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(IPCC, 2007 projections) or higher (if the Investigations have already noticed IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE rate of Greenland ice sheet melt continues changing trends in various parts of the to accelerate, see Sheppard et al., 2007) Indian climate system. The earth-climate within the next century will inundate system is dynamic and vulnerability significant portions of the Tamilnadu reduction to a range of likely scenarios coastline and increase the impact and should be built into infrastructure and extent of storm surges or tsunamis. societal thinking. This chapter describes Increases in mean precipitation and what is known about the Indian monsoon extreme precipitation events have already and the potential impacts of climate been observed throughout India and are change for the Indian climate system. The expected to increase. Likewise, the number physical mechanisms that are known to of warm nights has increased in northern influence the development of the monsoon India and mean temperature throughout are presented in some detail. Observations India has increased by about 0.22ºC per of current changes to precipitation and decade since 1970 (Kothawale and Kumar, temperature throughout India are also 2005). Increases in the frequency and discussed. A synopsis of potential climate intensity of precipitation events will change impacts for the case sites is given exacerbate flooding throughout Asia, along with a synopsis of other current while hotter temperatures will contribute investigations of possible climate change The countries in Asia to drought and increased energy and for India. have some of the groundwater usage. highest population This chapter is a semi-technical densities in the world The complete severity and range of description of the climate system of South impacts for regions of Asia, or any other Asia, particularly India. It does not and some of the most region, will never be completely discuss practical adaptive strategies climate vulnerable quantifiable or without great uncertainty. which are discussed in other sections, populations. Current short-term (4-10 day) and longer such as the case study on Uttar Pradesh term (seasonal to half year) forecasts rely (Chapter 7) or the chapter on adapting to on a mix of statistical and numerical climate change and natural hazards forecast methods. Statistical methods are (Chapter 2). In general, successful based on physical relationships between adaptation strategies to the potential phenoma such as the Indian monsoon impacts of climate change will have to and El Niño that are already changing focus on the design of relationships, and cannot be guaranteed to hold in the policies, social and financial networks in future. Numerical models rely on large addition to physical infrastructure. numbers of data sets and parameters, Transport of goods, services and such as soil moisture or streamflow, information and financial mechanisms to which simply have not been collected for risk sharing are key to capacity building many areas of Asia. As large scale and enhancing the diversification of changes occur in the climate system, the livelihood options. Further information reliability of forecasts generated using and ideas about adaptation strategies to statistical methods is likely to decrease climate change and natural hazards can over the next decade. Furthermore, the be found in the book Adaptive Capacity and ability to issue valid longer term forecasts, Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Strategies for upon which farmers rely to make Responding to Floods and Droughts in South agricultural decisions, is likely to Asia (Moench & Dixit, 2004). decrease.

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circulation pattern consists of two The Indian Monsoon and longitudinal (east-west) cells of circulation. The locations of its Physical Mechanisms convergence of the cells are marked by increased convection and precipitation. During the monsoon season, this centre of convection migrates from the pool of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Pacific Ocean to a more north-westerly location. As the centre of convection shifts, the monsoon region The Indian monsoon (IM) is the expands from India toward East Asia pattern of increased rainfall over India later in the year. The monsoon’s generally beginning about late May and existence is based upon large centres of extending through September. The moisture convergence (where storms monsoons are not confined to India develop) and divergence (dry spots)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS alone, but extend throughout Asia (into near western India, the Bay of Bengal, Nepal and eastward through China) Southeast Asia, and the Arabian Sea. For many parts of and Australia. As most of our field sites The monsoon ends with a west to east India and Nepal, are located in India, the focus here is progression when the low pressure over nearly 80% of the limited to the Indian monsoon. This the Tibetan plateau dissipates and the upper-level westerly jet resumes annual precipitation section describes what is understood about the physical phenomena that (Torrence and Webster, 1999; Fasullo falls during the contribute to the formation of the and Webster, 2003; Meehl and Arblaster, months of June- monsoon. 2002). Figure 1 displays a scenario of September. the ocean, land, and atmospheric For many parts of India and Nepal, mechanisms just described that lead to nearly 80% of the annual precipitation the formation, evolution, and falls during the months of June- termination of the Asian monsoon. How September (“JJAS” in Figure 1). The all of these mechanisms interact south-eastern coast of India experiences determines the strength of the monsoon, the monsoon from roughly September when it begins, and the active breaks through December. The beginning of the within the monsoon. Asian monsoon is marked by several changes in the atmosphere. A low The monsoon patterns exhibit great pressure system develops over the temporal and spatial variability from Tibetan plateau and the upper-level day to day, season to season and on an westerly jet (wind pattern) over the interannual to interdecadal timeframe. southern Himalayas disappears. Winds The IM tends to have break periods rotate counter-clockwise around a low during which little or no rain falls, that pressure system in the northern are modulated by the Madden-Julian hemisphere, causing winds to blow Oscillation (MJO) to some degree. from the southwest over the Indian Predicting the onset of the monsoon, its subcontinent. The primary horizontal duration and strength, whether there circulation pattern that moves moisture will be breaks in the monsoon, and over the Indian subcontinent is the when it will withdraw, is not an exact Walker circulation pattern. The Walker science. The monsoon is dependent on

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the characteristics of many physical | FIGURE 1 | This figure describes the progression of the various wind and IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE mechanisms and the interactions pressure patterns that leads to the formation of the monsoon. In c) a centre of convection is located more or less over the Indian between these mechanisms. For subcontinent. instance, how much snow falls in the a) DJF Himalayas during the winter can, but H WWC= EWC= not always, affect whether the monsoon WESTERN EASTERN WALKER CELL L WALKER CELL will be weak or strong. Furthermore, WARM WWC EWC understanding of these mechanisms is COOL STRONG WARM SST WARM SST E. AFRICAN SST RAINFALL WEAK not complete. Nonetheless, relationships AUSTRALIAN MONSOON COOLING between the IM and the El Niño WARMING WARMING WARM

Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the MJO, b) MAM the temperature of the Indian Ocean, H and winter/spring snow cover of the DECREASED L SNOW Eurasian landmass have been WARM COOL discovered. Each of these mechanisms WARM SST SST WARM SST will be described in greater detail in the COOLING WARM WARMING following subsections, in so far as the COOLING relationships are understood. c) JJAS

STRONG MONSOON L

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) L COOL WARM COOL SST SST H SST

ENSO is defined by changes in SST and COOL WARM WARM COOL sea-level pressure (SLP) around the equatorial Pacific. The SST anomalies are d) SON most pronounced in a narrow band WET SURFACE extending roughly 5º N to 5º S about the COLD equator. Variations in SLP are measured WARM COOL SSTSST COOL SST as a shift between pressures measured at Darwin, Australia, and the island of Tahiti. COOL WARM WARM COOL When high pressure is located over e) DJF + 1 Darwin, a low pressure is located over H L Tahiti, and vice versa. The relative H difference between the two pressure centres COLD is called the Southern Oscillation (McCabe STRONG COOL SSTWARM COOL SST E. AFRICAN WEAK SST and Dettinger, 1999). The location of the RAINFALL AUSTRALIAN MONSOON pressure centres drives atmospheric WARMING COOLING COOL circulation patterns (how and where the Note: Reprinted with permission. Source: From Meehl and Arblaster (2002) winds and storm tracks blow). ENSO is marked by extreme sea surface warmer than the eastern tropical Pacific. temperatures and sea-level pressures in the During an El Niño year, the relative tropical Pacific, yet the influence of ENSO temperature difference between the two extends well into the mid-latitudes and is decreases and the eastern tropical known to affect the IM. Pacific warms in relation to the western tropical Pacific. In a La Niña year, the Typically, the tropical west Pacific sea difference is enhanced and the eastern surface temperatures are 6º to 8º C area becomes colder. Both El Niño and

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La Niña shift the centres of tropical Niño and La Niña events are not the convection associated with the Walker exact linear opposites of each other circulation cells and thus the rainfall (Hoerling et al., 1997; Kidson, 1999). The patterns about the equator. This strength of an ENSO event is determined happens because less evaporation by degree and location of anomalous occurs over cold water than warm warming of SSTs in the eastern Pacific water; storms form more easily over (cooling in the western Pacific) and the warm water. Figure 2 depicts the general SLP difference between Darwin and shift of the Walker circulation pattern Tahiti. ENSO events are semi-periodic in during an El Niño event. Generally, nature, occurring with a frequency of during an El Niño event, the Walker roughly every two to seven years. These circulation pattern moves eastward, changes affect the average latent heat shifting the centre of rainfall further fluxes in the tropical atmosphere. The away from India. altered information propagates in a wave- like fashion through the troposphere ENSO events come in different flavours, (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981) and affects

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS some being stronger than others, lasting the IM. How ENSO will change under a different lengths of time, and evolving in warmer climate is not known. different locations. Furthermore, El The relationship between ENSO and the IM is not completely understood. Over | FIGURE 2 | An example of how ENSO can affect the Walker circulation pattern. The warmer water and centres of convection are the period of record of the all-India shifted eastward, away from the Indian subcontinent. monsoon rainfall index (IMR) and ENSO indices, ~1870-present, the general Typical Walker circulation pattern relationship has been noted; El Niño (La Niña) events tend to correspond with Air circulation in a vertical The Walker circulation dryer (wetter) IM conditions (Reason et plane at the equator al., 2000; Kumar et al., 1999a; Ihara et al., 2006; Lau and Wu, 2001). Reason et al. Trade winds (2000) performed composite and Darwin Tahiti H correlation analysis between the IMR, H mean SLP, SSTs, and wind and Pacific Ocean cloudiness anomalies in the Indian Ocean with ENSO indices. They found that when an El Niño event occurred Walker circulation during EI Nino during the monsoon season, several

Air circulation changes occurred over the Indian Ocean. in a vertical plane at the SSTs in the Indian Ocean warmed, equator weakening the land-ocean temperature gradient and reducing the zonal (south/ south-westerly) wind strength and Darwin H Tahiti cloudiness over the Indian subcontinent. H This effectively weakens the IM. A Pacific Ocean somewhat opposite relationship has been noted during La Niña events. Typical summer Warmer sea Cooler sea H positions of high Surface Kumar et al. (2006) have also noted that pressure systems winds where the pool of warm SSTs associated

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/analclim/elnino.htm#four. 54 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

with an El Niño event is located affects More recent work (Kumar et al., 2006; IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE the IM. They discovered that a Douville, 2006; Hoerling and Kumar, westward shift in the warm SST pool 2003) is hypothesising that the toward the central Pacific was more relationship between ENSO and the likely to reduce rainfall over India than monsoon might be changing because of those El Niño conditions that set up in global warming. Hoerling and Kumar the eastern Pacific. (2003) sought to explain the widespread, persistent droughts in the Northern Many climatologists have relied on this Hemisphere between 1998-2002 and relationship between ENSO and the IM noted a strong correlation between in generating forecasts of the IM. persistently warmer SSTs in the tropical However, the relationship seems to be Indian Ocean and West Pacific Ocean, a changing, which is affecting the ability cold SST anomaly in the eastern Pacific, to forecast the IM using ENSO indices. and the warmer temperatures and Recently, the expected responses of the decreased precipitation over the entire Indian monsoon to an El Niño or La Northern Hemisphere for that period. Niña event are not occurring as They discuss that while the ocean state predicted. For example, during the of a strongly persistent ENSO event 1997-1998 El Niño, which was one of could fall within the range of natural The relationship the strongest events recorded, the IM variability, paleoclimate records do not between ENSO and the was almost normal. However, India indicate that an ENSO event has monsoon might be experienced a severe drought and weak occurred like the one seen in 1998-2002. changing because of monsoon in 2002, even though no Furthermore, they note the unusual strong El Niño conditions existed warming of the tropical Indian Ocean global warming. (Gadgil et al., 2003). Many hypotheses over the past century and wonder what have been put forth to try and explain implications this might have for global why the relationship might be changing. weather and climate. Kumar et al. (1999) noted that there seem to be periods in the relationship between IM and ENSO. Between 1911 and 1950, The Role of the Indian Ocean ENSO seemed to occur in 5-7 year intervals and with less strength. In this Events occurring in the Indian Ocean period, the ENSO indices did not Basin influence and are influenced by correlate strongly with the IM. Between the IM and ENSO. The normal state of 1951 and 1990, ENSO events were the Indian Ocean is warmer in the greater in strength, occurred roughly eastern part near Indonesia and cooler in every 3-5 years, and correlated much the western equatorial area (see figure 3). better with IM. They hypothesise that During the late spring and early after 1990, ENSO shifted back into a summer, warmer water extends from the lower frequency phase and is not equatorial Indian Ocean to the northern strongly correlated with IM. In another Arabia Sea and the Bay of Bengal, study, Kumar et al. (1999) suggest that enabling full development of the IM changes to the Walker circulation through the land-ocean temperature pattern and the relationship between the gradient. However, researchers have IM and Eurasian snow cover might be noticed a seeming dipole condition in offsetting the changes in the the Indian Ocean SSTs. The dipole mode relationship between ENSO and IM. is characterised by anomalous warming

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| FIGURE 3 | Location of the SST pools associated with the Indian Ocean with ENSO events. They hypothesise Dipole that the changes seen in the Indian

60N Ocean are due to shifts of the Walker circulation patterns, which affects cloud 50N cover and the easterly or westerly winds. 40N The changes in the wind anomalies around Madagascar coincide with the 30N formation of a warm-cool (cool-warm) INDIA 20N north-south SST dipole in the western

10N Indian Ocean during El Niño (La Niña) years. The IODM also seems strongly SUMATRA EQ correlated with ENSO events. Yet, Ihara

10S et al. (2006), found that the relationship between the zonal winds and the IM is 20S 20E 40E 60E 80E 100E 120E 140E 160E 180 much stronger during El Niño years and

Note: Reprinted with permission. Source: Kulkarni et al., 2006 insignificant in La Niña years. They

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS note that negative zonal winds over the Researchers are trying of the western equatorial Indian Ocean Indian Ocean seem to protect the to understand the and a cooling near Sumatra (see Figure strength of the monsoon in the face of an relationship between 3). This has been dubbed the positive El Niño event. This result would seem to phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode agree with Gadgil’s assessment that events in the Indian (IODM). The negative phase is generally some of the variability in the Indian Ocean and ENSO. a linear opposite (Kulkarni et al., 2006; Ocean is independent of ENSO. Meehl and Arblaster, 2006) of the positive phase. An inverse relationship between the strength of the monsoon and Eurasian Snow Cover and Land the phase of the dipole seems to exist. A Surface Temperature positive dipole tends to correlate with a weak monsoon. The weakening of the The relationship between the Eurasian monsoon is due to convection being snow cover and the IM has been enhanced over the western Indian Ocean explored using a combination of snow region at the expense of the eastern data from the former Soviet Union that region. Sea-level pressure (SLP) and extends back to the early 1900’s and zonal (east-west) winds are also more recent satellite snow depth/ similarly affected (Gadgil et al., 2003). coverage data. Blanford (1884, as cited in Zhao and Moore, 2004) hypothesised Researchers are trying to understand the an inverse relationship between snow relationship between events in the cover in the western Himalayas and Indian Ocean and ENSO (Reason et al., monsoon rainfall in northwest India. 2000; Gadgil et al., 2003; Chung and Generally, excessive (deficient) snow Ramanathan, 2006; Ihara et al., 2006; cover during the preceding winter leads Lau and Wu, 2001). Gadgil et al., (2003) to weak (favourable) monsoons found that the variability in Indian (Kripalani et al., 2003; Bamzai and Ocean SSTs seems to be independent of Shukla, 1999). The physical mechanism ENSO. However, Reason et al. (2000) by which snow cover and depth in found that anomalous events in the Eurasia affects the IM is understood as Indian Ocean evolve simultaneously this: It is theorised that more snow

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implies that more solar radiation goes atmospheric circulation phenomena IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE toward melting the snow than heating such as rainfall, cloudiness, SST, and the soil in the pre-monsoon seasons. wind along the equatorial regions. The Lower soil temperatures lead to a MJO or intraseasonal oscillation results decreased land-ocean temperature in changes to the tropical rainfall gradient, which reduces convection over patterns associated with the IM on 30-60 the Indian subcontinent and a weaker day timescales. The active breaks and monsoon. Also, a larger aerial extent of resumption of the monsoon are linked snow cover reflects more sunlight, with the MJO (Singh et al., 1992; Madden which lowers atmospheric temperature, and Julian, 1994). Bands of clouds, increases surface level pressure, and leading to increased rainfall over India, weakens monsoon circulation. propagate along a northwest-southeast axis across India. Heavy rainfall events Researchers have sought to establish characteristic of the MJO begin in whether different regions of Eurasia western India and travel eastward across have variable impacts on the IM the subcontinent. The break cycle of the (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1999; Robock monsoon follows a similar pattern as the et al, 2003; Singh and Oh, 2005). bands of suppressed convection follow Correlation analysis with the snow data the bands of enhanced convection. The The diurnal and reveals that snow depth in western diurnal pattern of the monsoon is also intraseasonal variability (central and eastern) Eurasia is strongly governed, to some degree, by the MJO. of the Madden-Julian negatively (positively) correlated with The centres of enhanced convection are Oscillation are key to the IM. Kripalani and Kulkarni (1999) comprised of large clusters of convective hypothesise that this dipole correlation cells with life spans of 1-2 days or 6-12 formation of extreme is the result of a strong pressure system hours depending on the size of the cells rainfall events and over Asia prior to the monsoon. An within the cluster. The sequence of the active breaks in the anomalously strong high pressure (low MJO is described as having a wave Indian Monsoon. pressure) induces clockwise (counter- number of 1-2, meaning that for every clockwise) circulation over Asia prior to centre of enhanced convection and the monsoon. All of the studies found rainfall, there is a centre of suppressed that the longer snow cover/depth convection and minimal rainfall. persisted into the spring, the more likely that there would be weak monsoons in The strength, duration, and width of the India. The strong drought of 1979 in propagating bands of rainfall vary India was preceded by an anomalously considerably on a diurnal, intraseasonal, snowy winter in Eurasia in which snow and interannual basis. The variability of cover peaked in April of 1979. Thus, the MJO makes it difficult to predict the persistence of snow cover appears quite onset of the IM and the frequency and important to the development and duration of active breaks within the strength of the IM. monsoon season. It is also difficult to capture the diurnal variations in life cycle of the clusters within a region of Madden-Julian Oscillation active convection. Yet the diurnal and intraseasonal variability of the MJO are The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is key to the formation of extreme rainfall best described as an eastward events in the IM or drought if the active propagating band of changes to break cycle of the MJO is quite long.

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various sets of inputs (e.g., soil Global Warming: Predictions moisture, long wave radiation, or greenhouse gas concentrations). based on Numerical and Numerical models can provide realistic response scenarios, including responses not seen in the historical Statistical Models record. These responses are generated by perturbing the input data. Coupled models allow for interactions between the various layers of the model. In uncoupled models, data are prescribed The amount of research being done to for one or more layers, and in only one make predictions of climate change layer are changes allowed to occur. impacts in India is limited and constrained by lack of data and global Numerical models rely on large sets of gaps in computational power, and parameters to model a physical

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS institutional capacity. The same response. Each parameter must be limitations affect the ability to forecast calibrated for the model and Predicting the impacts the monsoon on a seasonal and annual assumptions made about the of climate change on basis. There are basically two types of calibration. For example, antecedent South Asia is models used for short-range (daily to soil moisture may be an input to a numerical model. Multiple samples hampered by lack of weekly) to long-range (decadal impacts) forecasts: numerical models and must be taken from sites within the area data, model resolution, statistically based models. Precipitation of interest and calibrated with the and institutional is traditionally forecast using numerical assumption that the samples are capacity. methods (physically-based), statistical representative of conditions over the methods (empirically-based) or a entire area. As soil type is generally not combination of the two. Each method homogeneous across an area, such has unique advantages and averaging might not accurately reflect disadvantages. The two model types conditions. Secondly, numerical will be discussed in greater detail below, models are computationally expensive. as well as which models are in existence and which centres or researchers are The general circulation models (GCMs) using the models. The skill of each operated by various research centres model type in predicting the monsoon, throughout the world and utilised for and various aspects of the monsoon is the IPCC are numerical models. The described as well. A brief overview of models operate in a four dimensional the model capabilities in predicting framework with the spatial dimensions various climate change scenarios is also represented by grids (refer to Figure 4). discussed. The ocean, land, and atmosphere are broken into grid spaces/ layers of varying resolution. Resolution is Numerical Methods determined by the data available for each layer, the type of processes being Numerical forecasts model the physical modelled, and whether the layers are response of a basin, region, or global coupled (i.e., the processes taking place scale (e.g. changes in precipitation) to in the ocean are allowed to affect/be

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affected by the processes taking place on | FIGURE 4 | A GCM tries to model the interactions between the atmosphere, IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE the land or in the atmosphere). The land surface, and ocean by accounting for the various mechanisms described in the picture. processes typically modelled are energy and water balances. For instance, the warming of the top layer of the ocean may be described as a function of incoming solar radiation and winds.

Several centres are running publicly available GCMs, to examine climate scenarios. The following models have been used in generating scenarios for Asia: the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the CM2 model of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM). The CCSM3 model is a fully coupled ocean-sea ice- land-atmosphere model. Each element (say the ocean) is represented by a separate model, which can be run individually, in combination, or fully coupled to generate various climate scenarios. The model operates at three different resolutions (grid spacing and Adapted by adding grid lines number of levels in the vertical) that the to the source diagram from NOAA. user can determine (NCAR, 2004). The CNRM-CM2 model is a coupled ocean- describe how a region’s climate might be atmosphere model incorporating 45 impacted under climate change vertical nodes between the earth’s scenarios. Thus, various researchers surface and upper stratosphere and 31 and centres are attempting to generate vertical nodes in the boundary layers of regional climate models that are forced the ocean down to about 500m below the at the boundaries with scenarios from water surface. The horizontal grid has the GCMs. One such model that has variable spacing, typically of 2.0ºx0.5º. been used to generate scenarios for India In general, this model overestimates is the Hadley Centre’s Providing temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and Regional Climates for Impacts Studies tropical Pacific oceans. The model also (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model is a has difficulty simulating the extent coupled land-atmosphere model forced (significantly underestimates) of sea ice at the boundaries by the Hadley cover in the circumpolar southern ocean, Centre’s GCM outputs. The resolution but is better in the northern Pacific and of PRECIS is 50km x 50km, which is northern Atlantic (Douville, 2006). better than GCMs, but still can fail to capture orographic (topography) Beyond the data limitations, the induced behaviour (Kumar et al., 2006). resolution of GCMs is too poor to really There are other regional numerical

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models in existence, but in the literature situation. Further comparison of the PRECIS has been used to model IM specific strengths and weaknesses of 10 response to various climate change atmospheric GCMs in modelling the scenarios. Asian monsoon can be found in Kang et al. (2002). In modelling the IM, GCMs have demonstrated very little skill in reproducing the variability of previous Statistical Methods monsoons (Waliser et al., 2003), raising doubt about their usefulness to predict Statistically based regression forecasts key features of the IM. In particular, are relatively easy to develop and can GCMs have difficulty matching features provide the level of accuracy needed for such as rainfall distribution, onset of the employment in water decision support monsoon, diurnal and seasonal systems, agriculture and insurance variability, and biasing certain ocean planning. Statistical techniques attempt and atmospheric features in the Indo- to find a relationship between the

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS Pacific oceans region. As noted in the predictand (e.g., stream flow) and the previous section describing some of the predictors (e.g., precipitation or General Circulation key physical mechanisms that drive the temperature). Traditional parametric Models have difficulty monsoon, biasing of the ocean or forecasts fit a linear regression between atmospheric features can give less the predictand [Y ] and a set of predictors reproducing the t skillful predictions of the monsoon. [x]. These models take the form: variability of previous monsoons. Prediction capability of MJO events and Yt = a1x1t + a2x2t + .. + anxnt + et Eq. 1 their effects on the diurnal and

intraseasonal characteristics of the IM is The coefficients (an) are derived from the still quite low for dynamic models. data, often by minimising the sum of the

However, some improvement in squares of the errors. The error, et, is numerical models is being seen. Kang et assumed to have a Gaussian al. (2002) note that certain GCMs distribution with a mean of 0 and 2 capture the interannual and variance of se . There are several intraseasonal variability better than drawbacks to parametric models: 1) the others. While GCMs are still unable to predictor data and errors are assumed to capture any diurnal variability, they are be normally distributed, 2) a linear showing some skill in forecasting active relationship between variables is (rainy) periods with about a 5-day lead assumed, and 3) and the inability to use time and break periods with about a 10- a model developed for say, Gujarat, in day lead time (Waliser et al., 2003). Tamilnadu. These issues can undermine Waliser et al. (2003b) also note that the a model’s skill. For instance, the skill of GCMs in predicting MJO events relationship between ENSO and the IM is good to the order of 15 to 25 days. is nonlinear. As seen in the previous Such short lead times do not offer section, the IM responds differently to enough time for decisions that must be La Niña (El Niño) events. Furthermore, made on a seasonal basis, but the a model created specifically to forecast prediction of likely extreme rainfall with rainfall over the Western Ghats cannot a 5 day lead is enough advanced be used to generate estimates of rainfall warning to prepare for a possible flood for Tamilnadu.

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Nonparametric techniques estimate a records for many variables and IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE local fit between the predictors and locations are not that long (less than 50 predictands. No assumptions about the years), 2) data validity can be suspect, functional form of the relationship (e.g., and 3) if the relationships are normal distribution or linear changing, such as is seen between the relationships) are made, which IM and ENSO, the statistical alleviates the drawbacks of the relationships may be invalidated. All parametric models. There are several three factors can seriously reduce the nonparametric techniques widely skill of statistical forecasts of the IM. employed, such as kernel-based Also, it can be difficult to choose a good estimators, splines, K-Nearest model without including too many Neighbour (K-NN) local polynomials predictors. The skill of any statistical (Rajagopalan and Lall, 1999), and local model will be artificially increased by weighted polynomials (Loader, 1999). adding more predictors. Thus, the skill Nonparametric models take the form: of the forecasts issued by the India Meteorological Department is highly

Yi = m(xi) + ei Eq. 2 questionable as it relies on 49 independent parameters (DelSole and On shorter timescales for weather Shukla, 2002). The skill of statistical related phenomena, statistical methods models might decrease generally have high predictive skill on Nonetheless, statistical models as relationships the six- to ten-day range (Van den Dool, continue to be used to offer forecasts of between the Indian 1994). After that, weather predictions variables in India (and elsewhere) and are not reliable. Some semi-regular do offer some skill (Gosain et al., 2006; Monsoon and other features with well-documented DelSole and Shukla, 2002). climate features, such recurrence intervals like ENSO, have Furthermore, statistical models are still as ENSO, change. decent prediction capabilities. With often the only way to model a small ENSO events, some skill exists for area or region’s behaviour because the prediction up to a year in advance resolution of GCMs is too unrefined. (Kirtman et al., 1997). At this point, the skill of predicting the IM and interseasonal variability is Statistical models rely on the greater with statistical methods than relationships between the predictand with numerical methods, although the (e.g., rainfall) and the predictors (e.g., lead-time provided by statistical ENSO or regional circulation patterns) methods is a little better. However, on and the assumption that the historical a seasonal basis, statistical methods relationships will remain unchanged in can provide 3-4 months lead-time the future. This relationship reliance about the general strength of the IM has three major drawbacks: 1) the data with some skill.

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in the climate change studies discussed Potential Impacts of later, are currently altering the energy and water budgets of India in ways that Global Warming on India have yet to be understood. Stephenson et al. (2001) investigated trends to the meridional and zonal winds for the period of 1958-1998. They noted that the zonal wind has been showing a decreasing trend, which they relate to a weakening of the Walker The previous section described the circulation pattern. The meridional types of models in existence for wind has also been displaying a predicting the potential impacts of decreasing trend. For that period, the global warming in India. As noted, there all-India monsoon rainfall is not is still much uncertainty in predicting displaying a trend one way or the other.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS climate change impacts on all levels, Chung et al. (2006) examined the SSTs in especially on the regional to local scales. the Indian Ocean from 1951-2002 and A number of changes The predictions of GCMs and regional found that temperatures have warmed to precipitation and models are improving as physical about 0.6º-0.8ºK in the equatorial Indian temperature in the processes are better understood and Ocean with little change in the northern Indian Ocean. They note that this Indian subcontinent computational power increases. Several studies are attempting to investigate warming trend has weakened the have already been how climate variability and the meridional SST gradient from the documented. monsoons in India might be impacted equatorial ocean to the South Asian under various climate change scenarios. coast during the summer. They Our studies, however, are more focused hypothesise that if the gradient on the range of impacts on particular continues to weaken, monsoon sites within India and Nepal, the circulation might also be weakened. uncertainty of those impacts, and the ability to build the adaptive capacity to Both Chattopadhyay and Hulme (1997) respond to uncertain conditions. and Kothawale and Kumar (2005) examined temperature trends across India for different time periods and Observed Changes to the Climate noticed similar changes. Kothawale Systems and Patterns Over India and Kumar utilised monthly temperature data from 121 stations for A number of changes to precipitation the period of 1901-2003. and temperature in the Indian Chattopadhyay and Hulme examined subcontinent and SSTs in the Indian both temperature and evaporation Ocean have already been documented. changes from 27 stations throughout The trends occurring over the Indian India for the period of 1940-1990. Both Ocean and large-scale atmospheric studies grouped the temperature data trends will be discussed first. into four seasons: winter (DJF), pre- Observations of variables on the Indian monsoon (MAM), monsoon (JJAS), and subcontinent are discussed second. post-monsoon (ON). The results of both These changes, while not accounted for studies show that India experienced a

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warming of mean temperature in all Kumar et al., 2006; Douville, 2006), yet IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE seasons, with warming being most each study arrives at this conclusion pronounced in the winter and post- through different modelling outcomes and monsoon season. The warming has been is not necessarily specific in how much unevenly distributed, however. The the monsoon will increase. Ashrit et al. western Himalayas, the northeast and (2001) used a single scenario of a coupled northwest regions, and the Indian ocean-atmosphere model to determine that peninsula have experienced the most the mean SSTs of the tropical Pacific will warming. Diurnal warming has be warmer and that there will be greater occurred throughout all of India, except variability. The IM is expected to follow northern India during the pre-monsoon similar patterns. The simulation also season. Between 1962 and 1990, indicated that the relationship between Chattopadhyay and Hulme noted ENSO and the IM will continue to weaken. decreasing evaporation at certain Chung et al. (2006) were the only group to stations in the pre-monsoon and incorporate the effects of sulphate aerosols monsoon seasons, in spite of increasing into their global warming scenarios. They temperatures. They attribute this concluded that the aerosols instigate a decrease to an observed increase in the cooling trend that reduces the monsoon relative humidity, which is currently circulation pattern over India and shifts In general, the mean offsetting the rising temperature effects the rainfall to the Sahel in Africa. Models monsoon intensity and on evaporation. run without the effects of aerosols indicate variability is expected an increase in the Indian monsoon to increase. rainfall. Chung et al. concludes that if the Projected Changes throughout Asian brown cloud is reduced, India India and at Case Sites might see an increase in the IM strength and variability under global warming This section describes projections of scenarios. Douville (2006) noted wide climate change for India. Each of the discrepancies in the SST warming studies published in the literature patterns under various warming employed different models, scenarios. When sea ice cover is reduced methodologies, and datasets to generate in the southern ocean, the southern scenarios for India. The overarching hemisphere westerlies weaken and shift concern is how the IM might evolve toward the equator in two of his scenarios. under different greenhouse gas regimes, In the third scenario, the tropical easterly how the hydrologic cycle might be jet is weakened, but warmer oceans offset affected, and whether or not extreme potential effects to the IM. Finally, Singh events are likely to increase. Table 1 and Bengston (2005) investigated rainfall displays a summary of projected changes runoff, evaporation losses, and snow and from three of the published studies. We glacier melt for several basins in the have observed changes at our particular western Himalayas using a hydrologic case sites and are working to enhance model and increasing the temperature at adaptive capacity to an uncertain range 1º increments up to 3º. They found that of climate impacts. evaporation increased for rainfed and mixed basins, but not in glaciated basins. In general, the mean monsoon intensity Melt from glaciers and snowfields and variability is expected to increase increased significantly at higher altitude (Ashrit et al., 2001; Chung et al., 2006; basins. Table 1 synthesises potential

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| TABLE 1 | Synopsis of Projected Changes in Temperature, Rainfall, and due to climate change will increase the Streamflow throughout India. frequency and/or intensity of cyclones in Rainfall/ the Indian Ocean region. However, Region Temperature Streamflow Reference various GCMs have given contradictory All India 2.5º- 5ºC 20% increase in Kumar et al., 2006 predictions about the impacts of climate overall monsoon 3-4 per cent Chattopadhyay and change on cyclone formation and it is not increase in Hulme, 1997 certain what can be expected. potential evaporation (PE) per ºC warming Next to changes in the monsoon, sea-level rise, glacier melt in the Himalayas, and Central India 8 per cent increase Chattopadhyay and an increase in the frequency and intensity in PE/ºC In post- Hulme, 1997 monsoon of extreme weather events will have a negative impact on the livelihoods of Ganga, Brahmani, Slight precip Gosain et al., 2006 many throughout South Asia. Significant Mahanadi, Godavari increases portions of the Indian and Bangladeshi Kutch, Saurastra Acute water Gosain et al., 2006 coastlines are at sea-level or only a few shortages

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS metres higher. The coastal areas also have Mahi, Pennar, Some water Gosain et al., 2006 some of the highest population densities Sabarmati, Tapi shortage as they are extremely productive zones. For instance, much of the Tamilnadu Cauvery, Ganga, Normal streamflow Gosain et al., 2006 Narmada, Krishna coastline is at an elevation of less than 5m above sea-level with a population density Godavari, Severe flood Gosain et al., 2006 2 Brahmani, increases of around 500 people per km . The IPCC Mahanadi (2007: 11) is projecting a mean sea-level rise of 0.18 to 0.59m by 2090, relative to Punjab, Rajasthan, Max warming Slight precip Kumar et al., 2006 Tamilnadu (3º-5ºC) in NW decrease during the 1980-1999 sea-levels. The report India monsoon makes the following statement, however: “Models used to date do not include Western Ghats, Increases in 1-5 day Kumar et al., 2006 Maharashtra, Andra precip extremes. Up uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle Pradesh, Madhya to 50% precip feedback nor do they include the full Pradesh, Karnataka increase in effects of changes in ice sheet flow, Maharashtra because a basis in published literature is lacking. The projections include a changes to temperature, rainfall, and contribution due to increased ice flow stream flow for particular regions of from Greenland and Antarctica at the India. rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in Besides the monsoon, cyclones bring the future.” The cut-off date for reports intense precipitation and can enhance or and information included in the IPCC cause flooding. On average, about 6 report was 2005. Studies released in 2007 storms strong enough to be designated as (Sheppard et al., 2007), indicate that the cyclones develop in the northern Indian Greenland ice sheets are melting more Ocean per year. Thus far, there have been rapidly than the climate models no trends in either the increase of predicted. Combined, the Greenland and strength or frequency of cyclones since Antarctic ice sheets contain enough water 1890 (Kumar et al., 2003). It is possible to raise global sea-levels by about 70 that warmer sea surface temperatures metres. Paleoclimate records show that, in

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the past, sudden collapses of the monsoon rainfall and an increase in IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE Greenland ice sheets raised sea-levels by extreme precipitation events for the as much as 20 metres in less than 300 Western Ghats, Maharashtra, Andra years (Sheppard et al., 2007). If this were Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and to happen again, much of the coastline Karnataka. At the same time, a decrease in would be inundated and a massive monsoon rainfall is expected in Punjab, inland migration of millions of Indians, Rajasthan and Tamilnadu. Gosain et al. Bangladeshis, and other coastal (2006) project water shortages throughout populations would occur. Furthermore, Kutch, Saurastra, Mahi, Pennar, the magnitude of storm surges would be Sabarmati, and Tapi. These various greatly increased. 12-metre storm surges studies indicate the imprecise nature of have occurred in Tamilnadu, wreaking predicting the regional impacts of climate great havoc (see the case study on change and also highlight that the Tamilnadu). Any increase to the mean impacts are likely to be quite different for sea-level will increase the impact and various regions of South Asia. extent of land affected by storm surges.

Flooding associated with extreme Potential Impacts of Climate precipitation events and the monsoon Change on Social Systems and Any increase to the heavily affects regions of Nepal and Livelihoods mean sea-level will India. For instance, flooding in the Nepal increase the impact Tarai and Uttar Pradesh routinely floods None of the previous studies examined and extent of coastal agricultural lands, washes away climate change impacts within the livestock and possessions, and leaves contexts of human vulnerability or land in South Asia many villages inundated. Under a range activity. They only incorporated climate affected by storm of climate change scenarios, the indices and investigated hydrologic surges, cyclones, and frequency and intensity of extreme changes without direct inclusion of saltwater inundation. precipitation and temperature events is potential changes to human behaviour expected to increase. A warmer patterns such as population increases, atmosphere holds more moisture. Klein et water demands, or land use alterations. al. (2005) have noted an increase in the Yet, human behaviour will directly number of extreme precipitation events influence energy and water balances, throughout southern India and on its thus affecting circulation patterns and northwest coast, and in parts of Nepal the monsoon rainfall in ways that are not for the period of 1960-2001. At the same considered by the previous studies. The time, seasonal monsoon rainfall has set of studies that are summarized below increased by up to 10% along the west all attempt to examine the impacts of coast, north Andhra Pradesh and climate change on India while northwest India (Kumar et al., 1992). A incorporating aspects of human decrease in monsoon rainfall of around 8 behaviour. per cent and an increase in drought events have been observed for east Mall et al. (2006) attempted to investigate Madhya Pradesh and the adjoining how climate change and human areas, northeast India, parts of Gujarat consumption needs/ patterns will and Kerala (Klein et al., 2005; Kumar et al., combine to affect water availability in 1992). Kumar et al. (2006) are projecting India. They begin by noting that a an overall increase of up to 20% in the warmer climate will alter rainfall

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patterns, evaporation rates, recharge Indian agriculture to investigate rates to aquifers, and extreme events regional vulnerability to climate change such as droughts and floods. Mall et al. and economic globalisation. The estimate that groundwater currently authors contend that there have been no meets 80% of domestic needs in rural systematic methodologies developed for areas, 50% in urban areas, and 50% of assessing regional vulnerability to agricultural irrigation needs. Between multiple stressors. The study developed 1950 and 1990, the area under irrigation vulnerability profiles to climate change tripled to 99.1 million hectares, with and globalisation by assessing each 52.2 mha being irrigated by region’s adaptive capacity, sensitivity, groundwater. India’s population is and exposure to the stressors. Adaptive expected to increase to 1.3 billion by capacity was measured in terms of the 2020 and Mall believes that food grain biophysical, socioeconomic, and production/importation will need to technological factors that influence increase by 50% to meet the burgeoning agricultural production. Sensitivity to India's population is population needs. The rising climate change was examined in the

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS expected to increase population will have greater water context of drought sensitivity and the to 1.3 billion by needs, increasing withdrawal rates and average of extreme rainfall events. 2020. Food production/ decreasing recharge time to aquifers. Sensitivity to economic globalisation importation will need This will cause problems in particular was measured in terms of cropping areas, especially the drier states of India. patterns, crop productivity, and the to increase by distance of the district to the nearest 50% to meet O’Brien et al. (2004) utilise vulnerability international port. Separate population needs. mapping and local case studies of vulnerability maps to climate change

| FIGURE 5 | District level mapping of climate change vulnerability (left map) and globalisation vulnerability (right map).

Note: Reprinted with permission. Source: O'Brien et al. (2004)

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and economic globalisation were dominate the climate discussion and IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE generated. The two maps were then adaptation is not given enough overlaid to determine which regions of exposure. By adopting climate change India are “double exposed” to stressors. issues within the larger context of The maps are presented in Figures 5 sustainable development, the authors and 6. suggest that the inertia for taking action related to climate change can be When measuring adaptive capacity as a overcome. The authors argue, for India composite of the indices previously in particular, that the immediate issues mentioned, the authors found that the India is facing are related to freshwater Indo-Gangetic Plains (except Bihar) shortages, food security, forest and land have the highest degrees of adaptive degradation, and pollution. Climate capacity. The states of Bihar, Rajasthan, change will only exacerbate these issues Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra and the adaptive capacity of rural India Pradesh and Karnataka have the lowest. is low. Thus Sathaye et al. conclude that The areas of greatest climate sensitivity adaptation to climate change should be are Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, considered within the context of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar sustainable development. Pradesh using current climatology. Under the climate change scenarios of the Hadley Centre’s HadRM2 model, | FIGURE 6 | Composite map of climate change vulnerability and globalisation Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and vulnerability on the district level. Crosshatched areas are doubly Maharashtra become even more exposed and the most vulnerable. sensitive to climate. The states of Rajasthan and Karnataka, and parts of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Assam are the most vulnerable to globalisation. The areas that face “double exposure”, that is, are vulnerable to both climate change and globalisation, are: Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, southern Bihar and western Maharashtra.

Sathaye et al. (2006) view climate change within the larger context of sustainable development and argue that policies and development strategies need to account for climate change within the broader context. Sathaye's study is more policy-oriented rather than an actual study of potential climate change impacts in India, but presents an opportunity to rethink the framework of the climate discussion. The authors note that on the international level, mitigation measures continue to

Note: Reprinted with permission. Source: O'Brien et al. (2004)

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capturing the essential features of the Summary IM is likely to remain quite reliable. However, as the physical relationships between ENSO, the MJO, and the IM change, for example, it cannot be guaranteed that statistical methods will offer any skill much into the future. „ The resolution and capturing of physical processes associated with the IM are improving in GCMs. It is While the India or Nepal specific probable that the skill of GCMs and impacts of various climate change regional GCMs will surpass that of scenarios are not known with a high statistical methods in the future. degree of certainty, the severity of global „ Statistical models are currently able to consequences for each °C of warming is provide a general overview of

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOUTH ASIANCLIMATE IMPACTS better known. Numerical models are monsoon strength up to four months improving significantly and scientists in advance. Neither statistical models The intensity and are using these models to predict nor numerical models can provide frequency of extreme possible changes to Southeast and more than 6-10 days notice of the climate events is Southwest Asia’s climate. It has been intraseasonal variability. Efforts are underway to predict breaks in the IM expected to increase in demonstrated that the Asian monsoon is strongly coupled with events occurring with greater skill and lead-times. most global warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and „ The latest summary of the IPCC (IPCC, scenarios. the Eurasian landmass. The feedback 2007) indicates that ice sheets are mechanisms between the IM and ENSO melting at a much faster rate than and the IODM are being investigated. expected, which will contribute As the oceans and land warm, the greatly to sea-level rise. Coastal temperature gradients that give rise to communities are at greater risk from the monsoon are being altered. Studies mean sea-level rise and larger storm are indicating that overall monsoon surges associated with cyclones or precipitation and temperature are likely other extreme climate events. to increase in India over the next „ Mean sea-level rise of at least 0.5 century. Some studies are attempting to meters is very likely over the next ascertain how the hydrologic cycles of century (IPCC, 2007). Higher levels various basins throughout India will be are possible, especially if the rate of ice altered under various greenhouse gas melt from Greenland and Antarctica warming scenarios. accelerates. „ The mean global temperature is In general, the following points are to be expected to rise 1.8 to 4.0°C over the made about the ability to forecast the IM next century (IPCC, 2007). on a short-term basis (~5 to 10 years) „ The frequency and intensity of and the ability to forecast the monsoon extreme climate events, defined as under uncertain climate regimes due to those climate events causing global warming: significant social and economic loss, „ For the near future (~5-10 years), the are expected to increase in most global skill of statistical models in warming scenarios. The resolution

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limitations of GCMs currently communities and institutions must take IMPACTSCLIMATE SOUTH ASIAN AND CHANGE hamper the ability to forecast the action. Mitigation and adaptation increase in frequency or strength of strategies must be discussed and events for particular regions. implemented and are more likely to be cost „ The warming trends already seen effective if subsumed under an all-hazards throughout India are very likely to approach. Furthermore, dialogue between continue. Warmer temperatures will the “developed” and “developing” lead to greater evapotranspiration countries needs to occur over the meaning and the need for increased irrigation. of sustainable development and A warmer atmosphere can also hold responsibilities of climate mitigation and more moisture, increasing the adaptation. Communities and economic chances for more extreme activities already experiencing difficulty in precipitation events. The semi-arid adapting to current climate variability are regions of India will likely experience likely to experience even more hardship more drought events under a warmer under a highly variable climate system. temperature regime. The recently released Stern Review (2006) synthesises the impacts of climate change Very few studies that focus on the on the global economy and further regional climate relationships and highlights the importance of taking action Despite uncertainty impacts are incorporating the changes in now. surrounding region land use, water use, and air pollution specific impacts of that are occurring on the Indian Finally, the fourth assessment of the climate change, subcontinent. Population increases and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate expectations of improved living Change will be released later this year communities and situations will alter how people use (2007). The policymaker summaries institutions must take resources. Increased irrigation and (IPCC, 2007) indicate that the temperature action. water demand, coupled with vast and increases seen in the past decade are rapid changes to vegetation types have unprecedented and very likely caused by significant impacts on human activity. The glaciers and ice evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are land and atmospheric temperatures. The melting much faster than the models sulphate aerosol concentrations predicted which will raise the mean sea- associated with the Asian brown cloud level, change ocean chemistry/salinity, also tend to have a cooling effect that and affect the ocean’s ability to absorb might be masking some of the warming heat from the atmosphere. Furthermore, effects in the region. Changes in the global mean temperatures will continue to levels and aerial dispersion of the brown rise even if greenhouse gas emissions cloud will impact precipitation and were to be stabilised at the year 2000 temperature regimes in Asia. However, levels (IPCC, 2007). The information there is very little systematic released in the IPCC report has a high documentation of the relationships confidence level and indicates that drastic between current human behaviour and climate changes will occur because of climate systems, at least that is publicly human activities. Thus adaptation and available. mitigation measures must begin as soon as possible, in order to lessen the impacts Despite uncertainty surrounding region of climate change on societies and specific impacts of climate change, ecosystems.

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Lau, K.M., & H.T. Wu. (2001). Principal Modes of Rainfall-SST Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Reassessment of the Monsoon-ENSO Relationship. Journal of Climate 14: 2880-95. Loader, C.R. (1999). Locfit: An Introduction. cm.bell-labs.com/stat/project/locfit. Mall, R.K., et al. (2006). Water resources and climate change: An Indian perspective. Current Science 90(12): 1610-27. McCabe, G.J., & M.D. Dettinger. (1999). Decadal Variations in the Strength of ENSO Teleconnections with Precipitation in the Western United States. International Journal of Climatology 19: 1399-410. Meehl, G.A., & J.M. Arblaster. (2002). The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Asian-Australian Monsoon Rainfall. Journal of Climate 15: 722-44. Moench, M. and A. Dixit, Eds. (2004). Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Strategies for Responding to Floods and Droughts in South Asia. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International, Boulder; Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal, Kathmandu. National Center for Atmospheric Research (2004), CCSM3 Public Release Home Page, http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm3.0/, accessed 22/11/06. O’Brien, K., et al. (2004). Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change 14: 303-13. Rajagopalan, B., & U. Lall. (1999). A k-nearest-neighbor simulator for daily precipitation and other weather variables. Water Resources Research 35(10): 3085-101. Reason, C.J.C., et al. (2000). ENSO and Climatic Signals across the Indian Ocean Basin in the Global Context: Part 1, Interannual Composite Patterns. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1285-327. Robock, A., et al. (2003). Land surface conditions over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D4, 4131). Sathaye, J., et al. (2006). Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns. Current Science 90(3): 314-25. Shepherd, A., et al. (2007), Recent Sea-level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, Science 315: 1529-1532 Singh, G.P., & J.-H. Oh. (2005). Study on Snow Depth Anomaly over Eurasia, Indian Rainfall and Circulations. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 83(2): 237-50. Singh, P., & L. Bengtson. (2005). Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region. Journal of Hydrology 300: 140-51. Stephenson, D.B., et al. (2001). Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon. Mausam 52(1): 229-44. Torrence, C., & P.J. Webster. (1999). Interdecadal Changes in the ENSO-Monsoon System. Journal of Climate 12: 2679-2690. Waliser, D.E., W. Stern, S. Schubert, & K.M. Lau (2003), Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon, Quarterly Journal Royal Meteorological Society 129: 2897-2925. Wallace, J.M., & D.S. Gutzler. (1981). Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Monthly Weather Review 109: 784-812. Van den Dool, H.M. (1994), Long-range weather forecasting through numerical and empirical methods, Dynamic Atmosphere and Oceans, 20: 247-270. Zhao, H., & G.W.K. Moore. (2004). On the relationship between Tibetan snow cover, the Tibetan plateau monsoon and the Indian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 31: (L14204, doi:10.1029/2004GL20040).

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72 CHAPTER4

Understanding Vulnerability, Building Capacity: Concepts, Approaches and Insights

Sara Ahmed and Daanish Mustafa „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

It will outline our common understanding Introduction: of the concept and describe our attempts at formalising the concept and testing a quantitative index of vulnerability. In so Why Vulnerability? doing, we acknowledge the diversity of definitions, frameworks and approaches to vulnerability assessment and seek to build a critical, integrative analysis that links the political and physical economy of environmental-societal change. Our analysis is contextually embedded in the What makes people vulnerable? To field realities of our project areas and most people today, this is an draws on insights and perceptions of everyday question that is as simple as vulnerability from a range of actors at it is complex. different institutional levels (Hilhorst and Bankhoff, 2004: 1) (communities, local NGOs and state agencies, for example state agencies). The concept of vulnerability is at the We tend to think of heart of our understanding of how vulnerability as a communities and natural systems, Defining Vulnerability conceptual lens and a institutional structures and social Vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined discourse that relationships are affected by climate variability and disaster risk. Writing in by physical, social, economic and environmental facilitates engagement the late 1980s, Robert Chambers sought factors or processes which increase the with both the to distinguish between the poor/poverty susceptibility of a community to the impact of biophysical aspects of and the vulnerable/vulnerability. hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015, disaster risk and the According to Chambers, poverty is adopted by the UN at the World Conference social structures that ‘deprivation, lack or want’ while he on Disasters in 2005). create the conditions describes vulnerability as ‘(being) defencelessness, insecurity and exposure Vulnerability is a contested term which of differential risk to risks, shocks and stress’ (Chambers, has its origins in the natural hazards and in society. 1989 in Yamin et al., 2005: 4). Another food security literature (Vincent, 2004: 1). disasters expert identifies 11 different An analysis of different definitions of forms of vulnerability ranging from vulnerability distinguishes between two UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS natural and physical to ideological, epistemological approaches. The natural social and technical (Wilches-Chaux, hazards and disasters school of thought 1989 cited in Smith, 2004). arises out of positivist approaches to development and is rooted in the Beyond its material reality we tend to technological management of risk (Cutter, think of vulnerability as a conceptual 1996). It focuses on external aspects such lens and a discourse that facilitates as the frequency or probability of physical engagement with both the biophysical hazards and the likely intensity of aspects of disaster risk and the social exposure or risk–expected damage and structures that create the conditions of loss–due to the combination of differential risk in society. This paper vulnerability and hazards. Such a will briefly revisit the conceptual debates physical understanding of vulnerability surrounding the concept of vulnerability. is usually manifested in the mapping of

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hazard-prone areas through environmental extremes but rather INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING probabilistic modelling methods, remote everyday social existence–i.e. sensing technologies and GIS. In this vulnerability as a context rather than an approach, risk reduction is largely seen outcome. More specifically, the as a physical function of infrastructure contextualisation of disasters within hardening, such as, building earthquake everyday vulnerabilities recognises the resistant houses, flood embankments or role of interlocking systems of cyclone shelters. vulnerability in both physical and social space, that is the construction of Disasters = vulnerability (internal overlapping ‘geographies of susceptibility or defencelessness) + vulnerability’ (Fordham, 1999: 19). hazard (an external event). A disaster cannot occur if there are hazards with little or no vulnerability, or if Aspects of Vulnerability vulnerability is high, but there are zero „ hazards in a given area. Physical/Material: The natural hazards • Hazard prone location of community The social vulnerability approach starts settlements and disasters approach by assessing vulnerabilities already • Access to infrastructure (roads, to vulnerability is embedded in a given social context: ‘the disaster-proof shelter) rooted in the characteristics of a person or group and • Access to information, technological their situation that influence their communication services management of risk, capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist • Access / control of productive whereas the social and recover from the impact of a natural resources (credit, land) vulnerability approach hazard (an extreme natural event or process),’ (Wisner et al., 2004: 11). It „ Social/Power: starts by assessing looks at the construction of ‘social • Personal endowments (skills, vulnerabilities already space’ (Bohle et al., 1994) as governing knowledge, literacy, time) embedded in a given the conditions that determine exposure • Institutional structures (family, social context. to risk, coping capacity and recovery community, power relations) potential of individuals and communities. | FIGURE 1 | Key spheres underlying concept of vulnerability

According to Cannon (1994): ‘There are Multi-dimensional vulnerability no really generalised opportunities and enocompassig physical, social, economic, environmental and risks in nature, but instead there are sets institutional features of unequal access to opportunities and Vulnerability as a multiple structure: susceptibility, unequal exposure to risks which are a coping capacity, exposure, consequence of the socio-economic (and adaptive capacity increasingly, political) system….It is more Vulnerability as a dualistic approach of susceptibility important to discern how human and coping capacity systems themselves place people in Vulnerability as the likelihood to relation to each other and to the experience harm (human centred) environment than it is to interpret Vulnerability as an natural systems,’ (cited in Morrow, internal risk factor (intrinsic 1999: 2). Such a formulation posits that vulnerability) vulnerability is not a function of Source: Birkmann 2005: 4

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• Governance and decision-making Defining features of vulnerability (conflict resolution)

• Vulnerability is a differential concept because risks or changes and abilities „ Psychological/Attitudinal: to cope vary across physical space and • Resistance towards change among and within social groups. • Dependency, trauma (or lack of • Vulnerability is scale-dependent, both social/physical mobility) across time and space: it varies • Lack of self-autonomy according to the unit of analysis, i.e. individual/household/community/ region/system. Given the above context, the working definition of vulnerability for the • Vulnerability is dynamic: characteristics that shape vulnerability change over multiple case studies conducted by this time. consortium, following Cutter (1996), Mustafa (1998) and Adger (2006) is, as a (Adapted from Vogel and O'Brien 2004) condition that makes individuals, groups, and social systems susceptible to suffer harm from environmental extremes and that they are relatively less able to recover from that harm. UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS

Embanked river Breached embankment

Source: Dixit (2002)

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are poor (ActionAid, 2005: 7). That is, INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING Aspects of Social the rich are also affected by disasters. For example, the urban middle class in Ahmedabad (Gujarat earthquake, 2001) Vulnerability in South Asia or upper middle class in the Margala Tower in Islamabad (Kashmir earthquake, 2005) or coastal Thailand or New Orleans (Tsunami 2004, Hurricane Katrina, 2005) were affected, but their ability to respond, find shelter and alternative livelihoods if necessary is Poverty and Vulnerability significantly higher as they have reserves and insurance to fall back on. It Today’s poverty is yesterday’s can also be argued that the rich have unaddressed vulnerability. more choices – they may ‘choose’ to live (Yamin et al., 2005: 5) in beautiful, but fragile and hazard- prone mountain environments, whereas Vulnerability is different from poverty, the poor have little access to alternative though the terms are often used security mechanisms or safety nets synonymously. Poverty typically (except for family, kin relations) and are measures the current status of pushed into slums (a ‘livelihood deprivation, lack or want, for example, resource’) or to live on and cultivate the lack of access to resources (material, slopes prone to landslides (Wisner et al., political, cultural) and the capacities 2004: 13). necessary for full participation in economic and social life. Vulnerability, On the other hand, as our earlier on the other hand, is a more dynamic research on adaptive strategies in South concept than poverty, which is seen as a Asia has illustrated (Moench and Dixit ‘static’ state, caused largely, but not eds., 2004), middle-income farmers in only, by income deprivation. In that northern Gujarat are often as, or even sense poverty is yesterday’s more, vulnerable than small and unaddressed vulnerability as it captures marginal farmers when severe climate- the changing degree of defenselessness, water disasters (drought) occur as the insecurity or susceptibility to loss latter have diversified their livelihood caused by exposure to disaster, shocks strategies: or unequal risk of individuals, communities and systems. ‘Middle income farmers often practice ‘Vulnerability is manifested in the extremely intensive forms of agriculture uncertainties surrounding the survival that depend heavily on access to regular strategies of the poor, their lack of water supplies and on a narrow range capacity to cope with crisis as well as of crop varieties. While such systems the seasonal dimensions of poverty’, can improve living standards (albeit, in (Murthy and Rao, 1997: 12). the short term), middle-income groups are often unable to accumulate substantial Poverty is a core dimension of capital reserves. Because their vulnerability: All poor people are livelihoods are somewhat buffered from vulnerable, but not all vulnerable people normal fluctuations through access to

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resources such as groundwater, they globalisation processes are often lack the incentives to invest in intensifying and, in combination with education and other forms of demographic growth, increasing diversification. Furthermore, because consumption and climate change, they do not have to cope with serious altering livelihood systems. The fluctuations in income on a regular livelihoods of the vulnerable sections basis, they are often unfamiliar with of the population, particularly the labour markets and migrating to obtain poor, are in the process undergoing work during periods of crisis (limited, if fundamental changes that often any, livelihood diversification). As a increase their vulnerability. result, they can be even more vulnerable than the poor or other Gender and Vulnerability1 Vulnerability in South marginal communities when serious disruptions occur,’ Asia should be seen in (Moench and Dixit, 2004: 17, italics In the context of South Asia, and the context of the added). indeed in most parts of the world, it is opportunities and risks well recognised that poor women, posed by globalisation Vulnerability in South Asia should be children and the elderly carry and also intersections seen in the context of the opportunities disproportionate ‘vulnerability with other dimensions and risks posed by globalisation on the bundles’ which places them in the one hand, and on the other, its highest risk category, even amongst of social exclusion, intersections with other dimensions of marginalised communities and the such as gender, caste social exclusion, such as gender, caste poor (Ariyabandu and and, increasingly, and, increasingly, religion. Wickramasinghe, 2003; Fernando and religion. Technological and economic Fernando, 1997). Writing in the now classic text ‘At Risk’ more than a decade ago, Wisner et al. (1994, 2004) acknowledge that vulnerability is

© A Dixit structured by relations of gender and power intersecting at different institutional sites.

Gender here is understood as the socially constructed identities, roles UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS and responsibilities of women and men, and the relationship between them. Gender relations are embedded in specific social and cultural contexts and are dynamic, characterised by both conflict and co-operation, and mediated by other axes of social stratification. Gender inequality is not a homogenous phenomenon and Women participants in 2006 local disasters can affect different social level SLD in Nepal. groups of women or girls as differently

1 This section draws on Ahmed (2006)

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as they may do different social groups Women are often the primary victims of INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING of men or boys. While there is limited increasing domestic violence and social gender desegregated data on disaster- conflicts in societies where the politics related mortality, emerging evidence, of gender and identity intersect with for example from the tsunami (2004) or communalism, fundamentalism and the recent earthquakes in South Asia terrorism to shape women’s lived (Kutch, 2001 and Kashmir, 2005), experiences. In a disaster context, suggest that women and children are women’s entitlements and perceptions the primary casualties. This is because of interest and well-being (Sen, 1980) disasters accentuate existing are further contested as households asymmetries of power, impoverishing struggle to survive: ‘Women themselves women further, leaving them more underestimate the enormous range of insecure in the face of adversity. In a burdens they bear, they may harbour group discussion in the flood, and negative images about themselves and increasingly drought prone, village of be unused to perceiving of themselves Sonatikar in Gorakhpur District, as strong and effective survivors, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, women managing a wide spectrum of described their vulnerability to food household and social responsibilities,’ insecurity with the following simple (Parasuraman and Unnikrishnan, Gender relations are phrase: ‘half full stomachs’ (Focus 2000: 11). dynamic, characterised group discussion, Gorakhpur, by both conflict and November 2006). Despite new policies co-operation, and and laws most rural and urban poor Caste and Vulnerability women continue to lack access to (or mediated by other axis ownership/control over): The complex social hierarchy of caste of stratification „ productive resources such as land, which characterises community including caste, class, water, labour and credit (lack of relations in India and Nepal race, ethnicity, physical entitlements) given the increasing determines not only who has access to or mental ability, age privatisation and or degradation of ‘common’ resources such as water, but and marital status or common property resources equally where people live in a village „ employment and other income- community and the kind of educations, position in the family. generating opportunities livelihoods and other entitlements they „ opportunities that can build their have access to. The principle of social skills and capacities such as stratification embodied in caste dates education, or ensure a better quality back to the Vedic period (about 4,000 of life (health-care, adequate food years ago) and defines inherited (at and nutrition, access to water, birth) and fairly rigid hierarchies of sanitation and hygiene) social occupation, status and mobility.2 „ to participation in decision making and governance at different Lower caste communities, so defined by institutional levels because of social the polluting nature of their norms which define women’s occupational identity, have separate mobility (seclusion) or question the wells, often further away, and are not nature of her participation in allowed to draw water from the societal processes public / village well or hand pump –

2 For a more detailed discussion on caste in South Asia see Fuller (1997)

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though they can access well water if for caste-based reservation in academic someone fills up their pot. During institutes and the work-place) are periods of scarcity, if there is no water in controversial as the current impasse the village well, upper castes often between the legislative and judiciary ‘claim’ the wells of the lower castes wings of the state illustrates.3 On the through ritually purifying acts (Joshi other hand, the perceived or constructed and Fawcett, 2005). Caste hierarchies rigidity of certain caste based intersect with gender to control occupations, such as fishing, is also women’s mobility and social conduct restrictive towards livelihood and exclude them from certain water diversification. Despite declining fish- sources when they are considered to be stocks and increasing disaster risks, ‘polluting’ – typically during fishermen in the tsunami affected coastal menstruation or after childbirth. Thus, village of Vanatagiri in Nagapattinam lower caste women face the triple District, Tamilnadu, preferred not to burden of caste, gender and poverty – move out or diversify their livelihood stories of the sexual harassment of dalit strategies: ‘We have no other skills – this (scheduled castes) women when they is what our ancestors have been doing for are forced to walk further to collect generations and this is the only thing we Caste, gender and water during drought are not know,’ they claimed (Focus group identity determines uncommon, as they are left alone discussion with fishing community, access to educational without the support of their men who December, 2006). While the quote have migrated in search of work illustrates psychological and real skill and livelihood (Ahmed, 2005). On the other hand, in level barriers to occupational mobility, it opportunities and thus the upper caste communities of Gujarat also shows the intersection of livelihood influence vulnerability. – the Darbars – men do not let their with identity, perhaps even a cherished women go out of the village to collect identity–caste and occupation driven water, not for any altruistic reasons but identity too can be a driver of because of the practice of female vulnerability. seclusion or purdah. Such caste and gender norms of seclusion also constrain women’s participation in The Social Construction of community decision-making forums Vulnerability and separate spaces such as women’s self-help groups (SHGs) are important Our understanding of the everyday UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS for not only facilitating empowerment, dimensions of vulnerability is not only but equally sharing information on based on the material reality of people’s disaster risk reduction. lives, but also on their perceptions or the social construction of their reality. How do Caste also determines access to individuals, women and men, and educational and livelihood communities collectively create and uphold opportunities which can help people social constructions that direct, limit and/or move out of vulnerability and facilitate enable adaptive behaviour as well as adaptation – however, positive influence perceptions of their reality (Löf, discrimination policies in India (quotas 2006: 15)? Such a social constructionist

3 Currently, the Union government wants to pass legislation to reserve seats in academic institutions for backward communities, but the Supreme Court has questioned the rationale of this process and effectively stayed it.

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perspective becomes critical when trying But some would argue that INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING to understand differential vulnerability constructionist approaches need to be and coping capacities which are as handled with care as relegating much based on physical material reality everything to people’s subjective and enabling social or institutional perceptions or their ‘ways of seeing’ structures as they are on people’s and defining what is ‘objective reality’ perceptions of their agency. Post- (i.e. climate change) is like throwing modernists and social constructionists the baby out with the bath water as it would argue that knowledge of reality does not help us move the agenda of by definition is socially constructed and practice on disaster mitigation or cannot be divorced from social climate adaptation forward (see experience or accessed objectively. Wisner et al., 2004: 19). However, the Berger and Luckmann (1987: 13) define question is not whether climate ‘reality’ ‘as a quality pertaining to change, for example, exists or not – phenomena that we recognise as having there is enough scientific evidence and a being independent of our own volition indigenous knowledge/reflection on (we cannot ‘wish them away’), and ... the impacts of changing climate and ‘knowledge’ as the certainty that weather patterns – but to dig deep into phenomenon are real and that they differential (subjective) understandings Terminological and possess specific characteristics’, (cited or perceptions of lived and experienced inter-disciplinary in Löf, 2006: 17). climate change reality. differences notwithstanding, what is needed is a better conceptualisation of the lived reality of vulnerability to climate © A Pokhrel change and the potential of adaptation processes which can then feed into wider policy debates.

Young girls collecting rice distributed by relief agencies during 2007 floods in Eastern Uttar-Pradesh

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poor, but her social capacity is high. On Capacities and Capabilities: the other hand, someone’s capacity may make others vulnerable. For example, a rich farmer with the capacity or the Other Side of resources to access water (takes a loan to dig his tube well deeper) may be Vulnerability depriving others from accessing water because the groundwater level is deepened. Capacities, like vulnerability, need to be across spatial scales–from household to community to higher Development is the process by scales. which vulnerabilities are reduced and capacities increased. In the coastal areas, both Tamilnadu (Anderson and Woodrow, 1988) and Gujarat, one of the biggest gender differentiated capacities that came out in Capacities are the characteristics of the various group discussions was the communities and people which can be ability of most men, particularly the Capacities are the used to respond to and cope with youth, to swim. Women, in contrast, are characteristics of disasters. The use of the concept of simply not taught to swim and their communities and capacity emerged in response to the traditional clothes would actually be constricting when there is a storm, flood people which can be supposed negativity of the term vulnerability which suggested that or cyclone and they have to escape to used to respond to people were passive victims rather than higher grounds.5 This social norm is and cope with recognising the many inherent however being challenged in some of the disasters. capacities that make them competent to post-tsunami rehabilitation work by resist hazards (Cannon et al., 2003: 7).4 NGOs who are teaching young girls to These can include group or institutional swim. Perhaps the biggest collective membership, mobility, literacy or timely capacity in all the field areas remains access to resources such as credit and social networks of extended families, insurance. Capacities and friends and kin – when there is a crisis vulnerabilities are not necessarily at those who are affected borrow money or opposite ends of the disaster spectrum, other necessities from those who are that is, high vulnerability does not equal relatively better off. Although some of UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS low capacity per se. For example, these informal social networks are being someone with a low nutritional or poor ‘replaced’ by new institutions such as health status may be an active the SHGs, these only meet partial needs community mobiliser in a disaster for credit and in most cases, do not context–her physical capacity may be reach the poorest or most vulnerable.

4 The notion of capacities has its roots in the capabilities approach pioneered by Amartya Sen, Martha Nussbaum (2002) and others which puts forward a moral argument for the exercise of capacity rooted in notions of human dignity, rights and justice. It is at the core of the human development index and UNDP’s Human Development Reports. 5 The ability to swim is unlikely to be very useful in the event of a tsunami but this public impression speaks to the sense of efficacy that such a skill may impart, particularly perhaps in the aftermath of flood disaster for rescue.

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and susceptibility, but equally, assesses INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING Operationalising the strength of different response strategies and/or the (relative) potential for these, then we may have a better Vulnerability: the Problem indicator of who is vulnerable, when and how, as well as look at points of of Measurement leverage for addressing vulnerability, building resilience.

As a starting point, it is important to distinguish between impact We are dealing with a paradox: we assessments and vulnerability aim to measure vulnerability but we assessment. Traditionally, impact cannot define it precisely. assessments have been used to identify (Birkmann, 2005) responses to risk and have typically focused on downstream impacts or Given the various approaches, potential consequences, both bio- definitions and multiple dimensions of physical and socio-economic, of vulnerability, can we really measure environmental change. Impact who is vulnerable – and vulnerable to assessments are used by a variety of what? Since vulnerability is a relative national and international agencies, term, analysis while based on past including the IPCC, to track the residual hazard/disaster events can only be, at impacts of a particular event (e.g. best, predictive (likely susceptibility). drought) or human action (e.g. However, if vulnerability is viewed as a construction of a large dam) either from dynamic process which takes into an ecosystem or social perspective account not only the risk of exposure (Vogel and O’Brien, 2004). In contrast, vulnerability assessments take into account the factors, both environmental and human, that together or separately, Understanding drought: from impact assessment to drive and shape the vulnerability of the vulnerability assessments receptor (e.g. a community or a ‘The example of drought can be used to illustrate the difference landscape). The potential risks for between impact assessments and vulnerability assessments. On the either a specific social group, or one hand, drought in a region is usually driven by rainfall failure and community or ecosystem are assessed higher than average temperatures associated with changes in atmospheric dynamics. An impact assessment, using climate given a variety of stress events (multi- variability as cause, usually then focuses on the consequences of this hazards) over time and in the face of the drought for various sectors, most notably crop production and agricultural income. On the other hand, the region’s vulnerability to ability of society and the environment to drought may be influenced by years of environmental degradation, respond (i.e. internal coping past or present economic policies (e.g. ‘green revolution’ strategies dimension). Thus, both external that encouraged extensive ground and surface water withdrawal in agrarian South Asia), and erosion of social capital and intricate support exposure and internal coping capacity mechanisms over time. In some areas, conflict and war (e.g. sub- are important in assessing vulnerability Saharan Africa) may further compound vulnerability to drought. The and risk (Vogel and O’Brien, 2004). exposure unit (ecosystem and/or social group) thus is weakened by a set of drivers or causal mechanisms that together with the climate hazard contributes to the vulnerability of that community/region.’ Typically, approaches to vulnerability assessment range from the (Vogel and O’Brien, 2004: 3, words in italics added) establishment of quantitative indicators

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| FIGURE 2 | From (a) impact assessments to (b) vulnerability assessments Since vulnerability assessments can

a) entail a considerable degree of Climate event uncertainty, indicators of vulnerability

External Stress too are, at best, proxies for the various social, economic, environmental, Exposure Unit physical, institutional, etc… dimensions of vulnerability. Such Critical Outcomes and Downstream Impacts indicators are typically only available at a macro-scale of regions, countries, b) Climate event states and districts rather than the local level where planning and projects External Stress actually take place. Global risk index

Exposure Unit projects use a variety of data on Unit at risk to number of adverse outcomes Compound hazards, climate (rainfall), event impacts demographic and economic patterns to Multiple Causes Internal Stress map the likely vulnerability of different

Source: Vogel and O’Brien, 2004: 2 sectors, e.g. agriculture, tourism, industry, housing and infrastructure (assets at risk approach), again at a If vulnerability is at different scales to qualitative macro scale. viewed as a dynamic narratives of socio-ecological change process, then we may and coping/adaptive mechanisms. At the meso and micro level of the case However, each has their own studies that we are conducting we have have a better indicator limitations. developed a quantitative vulnerability of who is vulnerable. index. The matrix, following the structure of the qualitative vulnerability The Indicator Approach: analysis is an attempt at balancing the Quantifying Vulnerability? concern with susceptibility to suffer damage with the ability to recover from Indicators are a means of encapsulating that damage. The matrix also draws complex reality in a single, quantifiable attention to non-material–institutional or measurable and comparative and attitudinal aspects of vulnerability construct (Vincent, 2004). The Hyogo following Woodrow and Anderson Framework for Action (2005) called for (1989). Furthermore, the matrix UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS the development of indicators as a key balances local level perceptions from activity in disaster risk reduction: the field with expert assessments of costs and benefits as well as Develop systems of indicators of vulnerabilities and capacities that the disaster risk and vulnerability at field team members may bring to the national and sub-national scales that exercise. will enable decision-makers to assess the impact of disasters on social, The matrix limits the field teams to no economic and environmental more than ten most significant factors conditions and disseminate the when assessing vulnerability. results to decision-makers, the public Theoretically there can be an infinite and populations at risk. number of factors that contribute to (cited in Birkmann, 2005) vulnerabilities and capacities. This

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rather parsimonious model draws on the income source on the INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING upon the discussion of the drivers of vulnerability side if it is unstable and vulnerability in the literature to tease sensitive to the local hazard, e.g. day out the universally accepted most labor. critical aspects (Adger, 2006; Wisner et. al., 2004). There may also be some 2. Educational Attainment: modification of the schema between If no member of the household is individual level and community level literate, then vulnerability is 7. vulnerability. Scores are attached to categories of vulnerabilities assessed at Lower the vulnerability score by 1 for the local level. These scores are every five years of schooling for the theoretically driven and are consistent most educated male member of the with what have been identified as household. Lower it by 2 for every critical vulnerabilities in the literature. female members’ five years of The scores are 1-10 with ten being the schooling. maximum value. One can balance off vulnerabilities and capacities by 3. Assets: subtracting the capacities score from If none of the assets are immediately the vulnerability score as outlined in fungible, e.g. farm implements, Indicators are a means the index. household items, then vulnerability of encapsulating score would be 10. complex reality in a The index schema is designed with single, quantifiable or household surveys in mind, but they Lower the score by 1 for every Rs. could be easily scaled up to the 10,000 (or 20,000) of fungible assets, measurable and community or regional level, as long as e.g., tractor, farm animals, savings, comparative construct. the weighting given to different factors jewelry etc. (may be one of the more is finalised. Furthermore, the index difficult data to be procured and one schema is not meant to be a data would have to derive the monetary collection tool but rather a data amount empirically). organisation tool. 4. Exposure: Material Vulnerabilities Distance from the source of the hazard, 1. Income source: e.g. river, coastline, landslide zones etc. If 100% dependent on a local level If in close proximity or equivalent of 10 productive asset, e.g. land, fishing, year flood plain, then vulnerability is shop etc. then 10. 10. If 50% dependent on a local level Lower the score by 1 for the equivalent productive asset then 5. of every 10 years flood plain residence and/or assets. Lower the vulnerability grade for every 10% of non-local income Also, lower the score by 1 for every reported by the survey respondents. piece of evidence of hazard proofing for Put a multiplier of 1.5 on the the assets, e.g. building of a house on a capacity if the income source is higher plinth for floods, light stable, e.g., govt. employment and construction for earthquakes, low cost insensitive to the local hazard. construction, which could be rebuilt Conversely, put a multiplier of 1.5 with local resources, etc.

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Institutional Vulnerability Lower the number by 1 for every 5. Social Networks: additional earning member. Membership of ethnic, caste, professional or religious If a single parent headed household, organisation or grouping and the then 10. local perception of the efficacy of the organisation or grouping. If none 9. Warning systems then vulnerability score would be Lack of a warning system: 8 10. Warning system exists but people are not aware of it or don’t trust it: 5 This could be true of recent immigrants to a community or Attitudinal Vulnerability repressed minority households. 10.Sense of empowerment: Lower the vulnerability score by 2 Self declared community for every instance of past assistance leadership: 10 by a group/organisation in Proximity to community adversity. The lowering will be per leadership: 10 group or organisation. If multiple Proximity to regional leadership Quantitative measures then lower it multiple times. structure: 10 supplement rather Proximity to national leadership than substitute for 6. Extra local kinship ties: structure: 20 If there are no extra local kinship or Lack of access to community qualitative assessments other ties which could be a possible leadership: 10 of vulnerability. source of shelter and assistance Lack of access to regional leadership: 5 during adversity, then the Membership of disadvantaged lower vulnerability score is 7. caste, religious or ethnic minority: 5

Lower the score by 2 for every Maximum possible vulnerability immediate family member living score being: 120 extra locally, e.g. brother, sister, son etc. Lower it by 1 for every non- All of the above numbers could be immediate family member living adjusted through a shared learning extra locally who could be a source dialogue with the communities and of shelter. according to the circumstances. The UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS number 120 could be discounted down 7. Infrastructure: to an index of 1-10. We could Lack of an all weather road: 4 empirically derive the very high, high, If seasonal road: 2 moderate and low levels of vulnerability Lack of electricity: 2 as the field study results come in. The Lack of clean drinking water: 4 schema is already being tested in the Lack of telecommunications: 4 Muzaffarabad and Lai field sites in Lack of medical facilities: 4 Pakistan and will be modified in light of the empirical findings. Hopefully, as we 8. Proportion of dependents in a test this schema further, it will help us household: achieve the elusive goal of comparability If the proportion is greater than of vulnerability across different field 50%, then 5. sites. This quantitative measure is not

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meant to be instead of the narrative INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING qualitative assessments, but rather to Women’s differential experience of floods in Gorakhpur complement them. It is to the qualitative Kalavati, an upper caste woman, describes how she barely survived the narrative type vulnerability assessments terrible floods of 1998, the worst in the present living memory for most that we now turn. villages in Gorakhpur district: ‘I was all alone with my two younger sons, my daughter-in-law and my little grandson, just two months old. My husband and eldest son had gone Qualitative Narratives to work in Gujarat so I was responsible for everyone in the family. I took them to the village across the river in a boat and we stayed with the family of a religious man till the waters abated. Then I sent my daughter-in-law In contrast to purely quantitative and grandson to Gujarat with my middle son, and I and my younger boy, approaches, several academics and just 15 years old at the time, went back to look after our house, or rather what was left of it. We had lost our entire house and two cows, so we had development practitioners believe in the to stay in a temporary shelter with plastic roofing. I remember being very potential of qualitative, actor-oriented or sick at the time, I had high fever and vomiting, so my neighbours helped self-assessments of vulnerability. ‘Story- me with food. Even my little boy was not well – something had bitten his hand in the flood waters and it had all swollen up. But he still looked after telling’ for some is a powerful me as best as he could.’ methodology for unpacking the Adhari from the kevat or boatmen’s community describes how she narratives, actions and agency of different suffered the impact of periodic floods in the absence of her husband who stakeholders (Wisner, 2005). Development had migrated: research routinely interrogates daily lives ‘In those days we had to pay a lagaan – land tax – to the local zamindar and livelihoods of the poor through a (landlord) of Rs 20/bigha. However, when the floods came and ruined our range of participatory and semi- crops we were simply unable to pay this tax. So the zamindar’s henchmen structured methodologies. A ‘story’ in this would tie five of us women together by our hair and make us carry heavy bricks on our back around the village for almost two hours as a context, is essentially an account of an punishment. I remember this happened to me at least four to six times,’ experience of hazards (in normal daily described Adhari her eyes moist as she pulled her hair to show us how life), e.g. community’s experience of the they were tied together. changing availability and quality of their Source: Ahmed forthcoming (2007) water or of a disaster event (earthquake, flood, volcano). They help distil how patterns of coping or adapting have can also be self-empowering and healing A narrative helps distil changed over time or through different – many of the approaches in post- how patterns of coping generations: What did your parents do disaster trauma counselling use story- or adapting have when there was a cyclone or drought (e.g. telling (re-call) as a form of narrative or changed over time or migrate)?; What are you doing now through drawings recreating the disaster (livelihood diversification)? and What do event, to help people cope with their through different you hope your children will do when the immediate loss, their pain and grief, but generations. next drought comes? also understand what makes them vulnerable. Stories are free-form narratives and can be related orally or through drawings Quantitative or qualitative assessments (indigenous or folk art), maps (time-lines) are not mutually exclusive – it depends and video-films. In many societies, on the scale of the analysis and on the stories form part of a tradition of passing focus or larger goal of the vulnerability knowledge on to the next generation and assessment. For example, quantitative of recording and ‘safe-keeping’ change approaches, based on global or national through different media (from cave data sets are useful for measuring paintings to the aboriginal art of vulnerability with regard to experienced ‘dreaming’ to digital technology). Stories losses – such as mortality or economic

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losses (crop yield, infrastructure, assets), The starting point for understanding but they are limited when it comes to vulnerability in our project was the measuring context-dependent and need for an integrative approach that spatially specific characteristics was going to look at both the physical (Birkmann, 2005). For their part, (external hazard/risk) and social qualitative approaches are also limited dimensions (internal susceptibility/ as they tend to lack continuous coping of different groups) of assessments and are often used on a vulnerability at different levels/scales one-off basis and sometimes seen as just in each area – from disaster prone ‘anecdotal’ case stories which cannot hamlets to the village to the district and draw-out any generalisable or region (e.g. coastal south Gujarat and comparable insights and are difficult to Tamilnadu, flood/drought prone scale-up (far more consuming of time basins of Rohini and Bagmati rivers in and human resource). Nepal, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar). Vulnerability assessments were We believe that you need a combination primarily, but not exclusively, based on of quantitative and qualitative tools to the Capacity and Vulnerability understand and measure vulnerability, Analysis framework (CVA and variants A combination of which not only help in designing – Participatory/Social Vulnerability quantitative and appropriate risk reduction and Analysis) and were combined with qualitative tools are adaptation plans, but equally facilitate a other methodologies such as physical continuous community-based self- assessments of environmental or required to understand reflective learning and participatory ecosystems services (forestry, and measure monitoring process. In the 1970s and agriculture, fishing, animal husbandry, vulnerability. 80s, disaster researchers began to look at watershed) and of communication and people’s experience of disasters to better information systems. In addition, we understand the development context used shared learning dialogues (SLD’s) (social, economic, political, to understand the context of disasters, environmental) underlying disasters the different dimensions of vulnerability which made some people/communities and climate variability, the potential of more vulnerable than others. The first alternative disaster risk reduction framework to help relief agencies mechanisms as well as the perceptions understand pre-existing vulnerabilities or social construction of disaster and and capacities of disaster prone ‘agency’ by diverse social actors. Here UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS communities was developed by Mary we focus on the vulnerability Anderson and Peter Woodrow assessment process and tools. For more (Anderson and Woodrow, 1989). on the shared learning dialogues as a Subsequently, there have been attempts methodology, see Chapter 5. to introduce the concept of vulnerability into other frameworks such as the Typically, there are three parts to a sustainable livelihoods framework vulnerability assessment at the (Cannon et al., 2003), the Pressure and community level: Release Model (Wisner et al., 1994) and CARE’s Household Livelihood Security • Mapping exposure to climate Assessment.6 hazards – the physical, ecological

6 For a detailed analysis of the potential of these different frameworks, see Cannon et al., 2003.

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mapping of different risks and assessment – only nomenclatures differ, INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING potential hazards albeit slightly. • Understanding system sensitivity – the extent to which the system will be affected (differential vulnerabilities, Participatory Vulnerability and physical and social space, structures) Capacity Analysis (PVCA) • Assessing adaptive capacity – the ability to cope, re-organise and Participatory vulnerability assessment minimise loss at different levels is a systematic process that involves (system resilience, perception/ communities and other stakeholders motivation of actors) in an in-depth examination of their vulnerability, and at the same time Our objective was to link vulnerability empowers or motivates them to analysis to existing livelihood strategies, take appropriate actions. ecosystem services, physical and social (ActionAid, 2005: 11) infrastructure, including information and communication systems, to identify The core principles of a participatory points of intervention where we could vulnerability and capacity assessment strengthen people’s ability to adapt and (PVCA) are: A good, analytical build resilience through a process of pre-disaster transformative change. „ Recognition of active agency: Poor assessment can and marginalised groups must be provide a base-line for The key challenge for us in a given involved in finding the solutions to community context was to identify the problems they face. future monitoring and specific vulnerable groups: who is learning processes that vulnerable in relation to a particular „ PVCA is not an end in itself, but can feed into climate hazard, e.g. which fishermen, or which should form the basis for a adaptation policy women-headed households so that we continuous process of action and frameworks. could develop appropriate reflection as it is based on the implementation pilots with limited understanding of people’s resources. In addition, we wanted to vulnerability as dynamic (changing). look at how vulnerable groups perceived or constructed their „ PVCA is a diagnostic tool which vulnerability and the role of different provides analytical data to support external actors, risk factors and policies better informed decisions on the in determining vulnerability. While planning and implementation of risk there are many vulnerability assessment reduction measures. frameworks, we refer to the process we adopted as a participatory vulnerability For us the PVCA was essentially a and capacity analysis, building on the community level process, supplemented CVA framework (Anderson and by the SLDs at multiple levels, as the Woodrow, 1989), the VCA (IFRC, 1999), sources of and solutions to vulnerability ActionAid’s PVA tool and Oxfam’s are often located or controlled by factors PCVA. In practice, most of these operating at multiple levels and external frameworks follow the same basic to communities. We used the three principles of participatory community categories identified in the CVA – the based vulnerability and capacity physical, social and motivational – but

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| FIGURE 3 | Vulnerabilities and capacities analysis matrix - Community mapping: access/control to natural/social resources Vulnerabilities Capacities /Potential - Hazard mapping: multi-hazards, e.g. Men Women Men Women (of different socio- (of different socio- floods, cyclones, fire economic groups) economic groups) Step 2: Analysis of Causes Physical/material What productive Objectives: resources, skills, risks and - in-depth analysis of differential causes hazards exist? of vulnerability Social/organisational - prioritisation of differential What are the social vulnerability (gender, social exclusion) relations, networks and organisations among at the community level people? Tools used: Motivation/attitude How do people view their - Focus group discussions with ability to facilitate vulnerable groups change? - Vulnerability ranking matrix: The team in Adapted from Anderson and Woodrow (1989) and ActionAid (2005). Nepal has developed and used a ranking matrix to access vulnerability. The key findings are summarised in Chapter 6. tried to go beyond a community level assessment to understand gender, caste Step 3: Assessing Capacities and other social exclusion dimensions Objective: which affect vulnerability and capacities. - to assess different individual/ community capacities to cope or adapt In all the four field areas, partners in given social, institutional and broadly followed the following steps. governance context (Specific methodologies are highlighted in each case study chapter.) Tools used: - Venn Diagram – mapping community Step 1: Situational Analysis perceptions on their level of Objectives: engagement with different agencies or - to identify external threats, e.g. risks, individuals that provide disaster hazards and climate variability mitigation services UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS - to broadly understand who is vulnerable, how are they coping / - Focus group discussions to understand adapting rights and entitlements (to resources, skills, endowments) as well as social Tools used: networks (capital/labour), physical - Historical profiles: trends, disaster infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters, time-lines including impacts, coping embankments) strategies - Transect walks: changes in land use, - Shared Learning Dialogues to explore access to water resources perceptions of change (behaviour, - Seasonality calendars: debt, hunger, attitudes, motivation) and the role of fund (credit) flows (differential – different actors, actions in reducing gender, class and caste) disaster risk.

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It is clear from the steps listed out above INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING that any VCA is a complex inter- Emerging Methodological Challenges from the PVCA disciplinary exercise requiring multiple • Building conceptual perspective and understanding on vulnerability skills of facilitation and quantitative/ takes time: How does it differ from poverty or impact assessment? qualitative analysis to assess both How do you capture the dynamic nature of vulnerability? symptoms and causes of vulnerability. How do you define it in different local languages? While a PVCA is primarily a community • Facilitating vulnerability assessment: level tool, it needs to be integrated with Strong inter-disciplinary skills for both quantitative and qualitative the analysis of vulnerability at different aspects scales or levels. In addition, while it is Good conceptual understanding of different dimensions of vulnerability typically a pre-disaster exercise, it needs to be followed up by post-disaster • Analysis of field data and insights: assessments – not only to track whether Using an integrative framework that links community insights to different levels and scales of analysis or not vulnerability has been reduced, but more importantly to critically assess which interventions have been useful points of leverage in reducing Emerging Field Insights on vulnerability. A good, analytical pre- Differential Vulnerability and disaster assessment can provide a base- Capacities line for future monitoring and learning processes that can feed into climate Conclusion: Why Vulnerability Matters adaptation policy frameworks. However, Despite the uncertainty about the scale, ‘there is minimal evidence of systematic nature and rate of climate change, there vulnerability analysis in which the physical, is little doubt that it is going to affect our economic and social data are lives, our environment and our comprehensively integrated together. children’s future. However, the degree to Furthermore, where vulnerability assessment which we will be affected varies takes place, it is normally seen as a specific tremendously and depends not only on process in measuring what is certainly more our exposure to risk, but equally, to our tangible and static than all the complexities welfare, our perceptions of risk and our of people within communities which are capacity to cope or adapt. Vulnerability undergoing dynamic change’ (Davis, 1994: analysis points to the urgent need to 11, cited in Bankoff et al., 2004,: 139). understand the critical linkages between

COASTAL GUJARAT and crops. There have also been some changes in rainfall patterns – short periods of intensive rainfall, often leading to Physical dimensions of vulnerability floods, followed by significant gaps in the number of rainy Gujarat has the longest coastline (1,600 km) among all the days have characterised the monsoon over the last two years. Indian states, a coast which is rich in biodiversity but also This, in turn, impacts surface runoff, soil erosion and highly prone to multi-hazards like, extreme cyclones, salinity sedimentation of tanks making it more difficult to store water intrusion, floods and drought. Salinity ingress affects nearly 30 in small dams, and increasing the probability of flash floods. per cent of the land area of the state and is increasing at the On the other hand, increase in summer temperatures and rate of 1.5 km per year affecting the soil and freshwater short heat wave conditions as well as shorter winter months aquifers. Though the data on sea-level rise is debatable it is and an increase in the mean winter temperatures could have likely that even small rises will significantly increase storm a positive impact on vegetative cover and soil organic matter. surges and any coastal buffers (mangroves or reefs) as well as This could be an important mechanism (a potential capacity) the direction of inundation. to reduce erosion, buffer storms and assist groundwater recharge. While data on climate variability is mixed, cyclones are likely to increase in strength and intensity, though perhaps not in Such anthropogenic factors are undermined by growing frequency. This may lead to more wind damage on structures populations, urbanisation and the recent political demarcation

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by the state of large coastal areas as Special Economic Zones decentralised village disaster management committees, its for industrial development, posing a challenge to livelihood intersection with civil society actors is limited. Much preventive security and natural resource management interventions. information meant for the public domain, for example, the state Utthan (www.utthangujarat.org), an NGO which has been vulnerability atlas, is not accessible. With the support of UNDP, working in the region for more than a decade, has selected the state government has launched a Disaster Risk three villages in the coastal district of Bhavnagar, namely, Management programme in 14 most hazard prone districts, 50 Sartanpar, Tarasara and Katpar. These are all affected by talukas (blocks) and 4,174 villages of the state for building periodic drought, salinity ingress, cyclones and water-logging awareness in local communities and decentralised institutions during the monsoons when there are floods caused by of governance. Disaster management plans have, in principle, intensive rainfall coupled with storm surges or high tides and been made for district, taluka, municipal and village levels but little protection is afforded by the village embankments. in practice they are ineffective for the following reasons:

Social dimensions of vulnerability • The committees formed by the government for disaster Caste intersects with gender in all three villages to determine response are adhoc and do not go through any consultative who is vulnerable, where they reside and their access to or legitimisation processes at the village level. As a result, resources including communication and information systems. they are not effective when disaster strikes and speedy In Sartanpar village for example, the Pitha and Bhil actions have to be taken. communities (tribal groups) reside in low-lying, flood-prone • There is lack of coordination among the line departments, areas on the outskirts of the village making it difficult for them which makes it very difficult for effective functioning after a to access relief or information on impending disasters. The disaster event. village temple provides the only safe sanctuary for people • Delegation of administrative power and financial decision- during floods and cyclones, but space is limited and it is making to lower levels of the government machinery, possible that the most marginalised communities are denied which is required to take quick action and engage locally access at times. available resources is limited. For example, a mamlatdar (block level officer) may be able to hire a boat locally, but Livelihood diversification and a shift from agriculture as the since payments are not timely boatmen are often reluctant primary source of income to migration (local, seasonal and to comply. long-term) and other off-farm activities characterises the rural • No updating of the inventory of local resources and so economy in all the villages. Women are amongst the most information available is usually outdated and redundant. vulnerable, though their vulnerability varies according to their This is coupled by the fact that government data is hardly socio-economic group and access to entitlements – for women reliable. from small and marginal landholding families for example, where male migration is high, managing land in the absence Given the limitations of the top-down approaches, the GSDMA of clear land titles or even joint ownership is difficult. Access to has begun recognising the need to work with or at least water for irrigation or credit and extension services is often tied collaborate with (some) civil society actors on capacity building to land ownership or land as collateral. Water supply systems and participatory community disaster planning. Oxfam has are unreliable, insufficient and not accessible when the village produced a GIS based decision-support tool with active village is waterlogged. Access to early warning information is also level maps and 25 vulnerability indicators (including the sex gendered – given the nature of their work, women rarely have ratio, access to education and health, agriculture, etc. based on time to watch TV or listen to the radio and most mobile phones Census, 2001) and information on post-disaster service are owned by men. Moreover, none of the women can swim, providers (transport agencies, volunteers, medics). Oxfam, whereas at least 40 per cent of the men can. ActionAid, the International Red Cross and CARE are part of an inter-agency platform formed after the floods in 2005 Apart from the village panchayat, temple-based organisations devastated many parts of the state to look at disaster mitigation and some emerging women’s self help groups for micro-credit issues, review policy guidelines, promote SPHERE principles

UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS and savings activities, there are no collective village institutions and facilitate networking amongst different actors/agencies. that can respond to climate variability and disasters. Fallback However, most of these initiatives are still framed in the mechanisms include social networks, extended family support language of disaster mitigation, addressing preparedness and and dependence on moneylenders after a disaster event. post-disaster relief and rehabilitation, rather than locating ‘disasters’ in the everyday continuum of livelihoods. Oxfam has Scope and extent of capacities/potential for adaptation just launched a global programme in India, Ethiopia and and disaster risk reduction Gujarat was the first state in India Honduras with the goal to reach 1 million small and marginal to establish a Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) in farmers in 10 years to help them adapt to the growing impacts February 2001, after the massive earthquake in Kutch. This was on agriculture, including climate change, through support for followed by a disaster management policy (2002) and the livelihood diversification, reduced input costs, improved market Gujarat State Disaster Management Act (2003). While this access and more equitable institutional mechanisms. But legislative framework is meant to provide an institutional base strategies that build local resilience need to be linked to the for assessing risks and vulnerabilities, developing mitigation wider framework of disaster/adaptation governance. strategies and building community capacity through Source: Author’s field notes, Utthan reports 2006-07

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society-nature from a multiplicity of assessments can provide an analysis of INSIGHTS AND CAPACITY: APPROACHES CONCEPTS, BUILDING VULNERABILITY, UNDERSTANDING approaches – positivist (biophysical transitions at different levels, in time and vulnerability), political ecology/ space. But unless these community based economy (social space, power processes feed into larger discourse on relations) and social constructivist climate change and adaptation, as (different perceptions of reality). It is a illustrated by our shared learned complex, messy process and there is no dialogues, and vice versa, then we will blueprint approach; neither should continue to see communities at risk vulnerability analysis be seen as an without understanding the potential for end in itself nor used as an change embedded in social, political and instrumentalist tool in the name of economic reality. In the final analysis, an participatory disaster planning and integrative and comprehensive risk mitigation. By drawing attention vulnerability analysis has to provide the to the heterogeneity of communities at foundation for building strong, risk, to the differential, yet intersecting, democratic and representative dimensions of vulnerability, poverty, institutions for minimising disaster risk gender and social exclusion, and facilitating better disaster participatory vulnerability governance at different levels.

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Bibliography

ActionAid (2005) Participatory Vulnerability Analysis: A Step by Step Guide for Field Staff, London: ActionAid International. Adger, W. N. (2006) ‘Vulnerability’ Global Environmental Change 16: 268-281. Ahmed, S. (2006) ‘Gender, Vulnerability and Disasters: Key Concerns for Policy and Practice’, Disaster and Development 1(1): 165-177. Ahmed, S. ed. (2005) Flowing Upstream: Empowering Women through Water Management Initiatives in India,’ Ahmedabad: Centre for Environment Education and New Delhi: Foundation Books. Anderson, M. and P. Woodrow (1989) Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disasters, London: Westview Press. Ariyabandu, M. M. and M. Wickramasinghe (2003) Gender Dimensions in Disaster Management: A Guide for South Asia, Colombo: Intermediate Technology Development Group. Bankoff, G., G. Frerks and D. Hihorst (2004) Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People. Earthscan: Sterling, VA. Birkmann, J. (2005) ‘Danger Need not Spell Disaster: But How Vulnerable are We?’ UNU-EHS Research Brief No. 1. Bohle, H.G, Downing, T.E., and M.J. Watts (1994) ‘Climate change and social vulnerability’, Global Environmental Change 4(1): 37-48. Cannon, T., Twigg, J. and J. Rowell (2003) Social Vulnerability, Sustainable Livelihoods and Disasters, Report submitted to DFID, U.K. Cutter, S. (1996) ‘Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards’, Progress in Human Geography 20(4): 529-539. Dixit, A. (2002) Basic Water Science, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, Nepal. Enarson, E. and B.H. Morrow (eds.) (1998) The Gendered Terrain of Disaster: Through Women’s Eyes. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publications. Fernando, P. and V. Fernando (eds.) (1997) South Asian Women: Facing Disasters, Securing Life. Colombo: Intermediate Technology Publications for Duryog Nivaran. Fordham, M. (1999) ‘The intersection of gender and social class in disaster: balancing resilience and vulnerability,’ International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 17(1): 15-36. Fuller, C.J. ed. (1997) Caste Today, New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Hilhorst, D. and G. Bankoff (2004) ‘Introduction: Mapping Vulnerability’, in G. Bankoff, G. Frerks and D. Hilhorst (eds.) Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People, London: Earthscan. Hyogo (2005) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, A/CONF.206/6, World Conference on Disasters Reduction, January 18-20, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. IFRC (1999) Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment: An International Federation Guide, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Joshi, D. and B. Fawcett (2005) ‘The Role of Water in an Unequal Social Order in India’, in A. Coles and T. Wallace eds. Gender, Water and Development, Oxford: Berg. Löf, A. (2006) ‘More than meets the eye? Exploring how social constructions impact adaptive capacity to climate change’, Unpublished Masters Thesis, Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, Stockholm University. Moench, M. and A. Dixit eds. (2004) Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Strategies for Responding to Floods and Drought in South Asia, Kathmandu: Institute for Social and Environmental Transition, Nepal and Boulder: ISET-International. Morrow, B.H. (1999) ‘Identifying and mapping community vulnerability,’ Disasters 23(1): 1-18.

UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY, BUILDING CONCEPTS, APPROACHES CAPACITY: AND INSIGHTS Murthy, R.K. and N. Rao. (1997) Addressing Poverty: Indian NGOs and their Capacity Enhancement in the 1990s, New Delhi: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. Mustafa, D. (1998) ‘Structural Causes of Vulnerability to Flood Hazard in Pakistan’ Economic Geography, 74(3): 289-305. Nussbaum, M.C. (2002) Women and Human Development: The Capabilities Approach, New Delhi: Kali for Women. Parasuraman, S. and P.V. Unnikrishnan (2000) India Disasters Report: Towards a Policy Initiative. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Smith, A.O. (2004) ‘Theorising Vulnerability in a Globalised World: A Political Ecology Perspective’, in G. Bankoff et al., eds. Mapping Vulnerability, London: Earthscan. Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an Index of Social Vulnerability to Climate Change for Africa, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper #56, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich. Vogel, C. and K. O’Brien (2004) ‘Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change: Rhetoric and Reality’, AVISO, Issue No. 13. Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. and I. Davis eds. (1994 and 2004) At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disaster, London and New York: Routledge. Wisner, B. (2005) Author’s notes from presentation made and discussions with Wisner at the IHDP Open Meeting, University of Bonn. Yamin, F., Rahman, A. and S. Huq (2005) ‘Vulnerability, adaptation and climate disasters: A conceptual overview,’ IDS Bulletin 36(4): 1-14.

94 CHAPTER5

Catalysing Adaptation to Disaster Risks and Climate Change: The Shared Learning Dialogue Process

Sara Ahmed, Shashikant Chopde, Ajaya Dixit, S Janakrajan, Fawad Khan, Marcus Moench, Daanish Mustafa, Sarah Opitz-Stapleton and Shiraz A Wajih „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

know the risks. The population sits on a The Need time bomb – but the direct experience necessary to catalyse response is minimal. Furthermore, even where direct experience exists, the probability of events recurring in the same region within the time horizon most people base day to day activities on is highly unlikely.

The above is, in many ways, parallel to The challenges inherent in reducing the challenge associated with climate the risk of large scale disasters and change. Scientific evidence on the catalysing social responses to climate probable consequences of climate change share an important change is accumulating rapidly. People characteristic – both involve events or in many regions have experienced the conditions that may never have been effects of extreme storms and the types of previously experienced by the affected climatic variability projected as a The gap between populations. consequence of climate change. hazards or changes Elements of society know the risk and that are analytically Disasters are recurrent events and from some have direct experience. That said, the risk appears intangible – a possible ‘known’ and the biblical stories of the ‘flood’ to the daily news have played a major role in cloud sometime in the future, not experience creates a shaping known history. In some something that should shape behaviour social space in which regions, extreme events of the type that in the here and now. perceptions regarding can cause disasters recur with such risks and potential sufficient frequency that they are The gap between hazards or changes strategies for embedded in the psychology and that are analytically ‘known’ and responding to behaviour of populations. In many experience creates a social space in other regions, however, they are well which perceptions regarding risks and them multiply. beyond the types of human memory that potential strategies for responding to shape daily behaviour. The average age them multiply. Local direct experience of the population in Nepal at present often provides little basis for (2007) is below 15 years. The last major populations to develop strategies for earthquake in the Kathmandu valley mitigating or otherwise responding to that resulted in substantial direct the types of risk associated with events – disruption of life and property occurred such as potential rises in sea-level – that in 1936. The Himalaya are known as have never been experienced. one of the most earthquake prone Community-driven strategies for regions in the world and major quakes responding to climate change and CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING occur in parts of the region every decade intermittent hazards have, as a result, – but on a practical level most people in inherent limitations. At the same time, Kathmandu have never themselves the limitations of ‘expert’ perspectives experienced the tremendous destructive have been soundly demonstrated by the power earthquakes can generate and dismal history of many top-down driven don’t know anyone who has. At an attempts toward regional development analytical level, elements within society and hazard mitigation. Hazards are

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local phenomenon. They are shaped by ‘Green Revolution’ that transformed CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER geography, institutions, infrastructure, global agriculture was framed largely by social relationships, economic this model. Centralised research structures, politics and a myriad of other institutes (the CGIAR system) developed factors and processes operating within modern seeds and packages of local and regional contexts. ‘Expert technologies. These were delivered to knowledge,’ may be able to quantify the rural areas through agricultural frequency and probable magnitude of extension services and replaced lower hazard events, but is unable to value (defined primarily in terms of systematically capture the complex production) traditional varieties. dynamics embedded in local situations. Support services, the dams and irrigation systems that Nehru, India’s first Prime In addition to the tensions between Minister, famously called the ‘temples of expert and local knowledge, tensions modern India,’ were built to support the exist in the long history of research and new modern agriculture. Developed applied work on international ways supplanted "backward" traditions. development and environmental Losses in terms of genetic diversity and management. This history is important locally adapted varieties were rarely to recognise because it captures the recognised. As recognition of local tensions and dilemmas inherent in realities grew, the designing strategies that respond to During the 1960s and 1970s, research by pendulum of both existing disaster risks and those anthropologists, sociologists and rural approaches to the emerging as a consequence of climate development practitioners building change. largely, on concepts from the Gandhian design of development tradition, led to recognition of the central programmes swung role indigenous technologies, modes of away from centrally A Brief History organisation, and cultural practices driven and could play as major elements conceptualised Ever since the beginning of what might contributing to development. This strategies to efforts be called the ‘development era’ in the recognition emerged at the same time as post World War II period, tensions have many centrally-driven programmes for driven at the existed between macro-perspectives and development that had been designed community level. those emerging from the complex based primarily on external ‘expert’ realities that shape local contexts. In knowledge were failing or running into India, the world views of Nehru and major problems. Local communities did Gandhi, mythologies of centralised not automatically ‘adopt’ the approaches socialist development versus village, promoted and, on further investigation, it community and tradition represented was gradually recognised that this was competing narratives for the future. often for very good reasons. The factors Initially, most development was framing reality at local and global levels conceptualised primarily as a process of often diverge. modernisation – of delivering the knowledge, technologies and systems to As recognition of local realities grew, the local communities so that they could pendulum of approaches to the design of abandon the ‘backward’ traditional development programmes swung away practices seen as hindering modern from centrally driven and conceptualised ‘developed’ ways of working. The strategies to efforts driven at the

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community level. Participation emerged insights into local conditions but their as a strategy to bring local inputs into ability to organise and influence the what were still largely centrally driven changing dynamics of increasingly and conceptualised processes. This was globalised systems has inherent accompanied by techniques such as limitations. ‘rapid rural appraisal’ – which rapidly morphed into ‘participatory rural The emergence of locally driven strategies appraisal’ – for bringing local information and forms of organisation has not into development planning. When this replaced centrally driven strategies. In was recognised as weak (why should many fields – such as water and disaster locals ‘participate’ in a process they had management – strategies operate in no role in defining?) concepts such as parallel and often in direct competition. stakeholder ‘ownership’ and community- The Water Ministry in India, for example, driven development emerged as avenues is currently developing a programme to for strengthening the locally rooted nature link all rivers in the sub-continent. This of development processes. This was massive infrastructure programme is a accompanied by many techniques to direct evolution from Nehru’s almost decentralise the design, implementation religious vision of dams. Water will be Participation emerged and control over development and natural provided to farmers which will as a strategy to bring resource based activities. modernise agriculture. The vision local inputs into what competes with equally ideological Within formal government systems, core visions, initially rooted in Gandhian were still largely powers have often been devolved to local traditions and now embedded in many centrally driven and levels as, for example, with the panchayat civil society organisation, of village conceptualised raj in India. At the same time, numerous development that focuses on the poorest processes. forms of local organisations from self-help of the poor. It is important to emphasise groups to informal groups for disaster, that this competition is as much forest, irrigation and other management ideological as it is strategic. The activities have become centerpieces in competition is as much driven by development strategies. In some cases, as conflicting visions of what life should be, with Nepal’s experiences in community what the state should do, and who should forestry, decentralisation has generated drive development as it is about ‘what huge successes. In other cases, a variety of works’ in terms of improving living factors – principally having to do with standards or the condition of basic scale and macro-processes such as resources. demographic trends – have undermined the viability of community-based The above history of development strategies. When processes operate at processes – the interplay between scales greater than the local level and community-based and state-based when large portions of the population strategies and ideologies – largely CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING migrate or commute long distances to ignores the private sector. Throughout work in activities that are not locally much of the history of international rooted, then communities lose their development, private sector actors have geographic definition and the logic been treated as exogenous elements. underlying locally-based approaches They aren’t treated as part of declines. People residing in regions still communities (despite the fact that they have unique communities, networks and often represent a strong community of

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interests). Except as elements to be hired 2. The organisational logic underlying CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER for completion of a project (to build a different modes of organisation dam) or to be manipulated and catalysed generates very different perspectives for service provision, the private sector and response strategies in relation to often aren’t incorporated in centrally perceived constraints and driven strategies. Historically, the opportunities; and private sector has largely been ignored 3. None of the strategies that emerge in as an actor in the development process. relation to the above modes of More recently, however, the private organisation can, by itself, address the sector, driven by a profit motive is being challenges inherent in reducing recognised as a key engine for generating disaster risk or responding to climate new technologies, for creating jobs and change. for delivering key services. Developing effective responses to the As with centrally-driven and community- intermittent events that cause disaster based strategies, perspectives on the and to evolving processes such as climate behaviour and role of the private sector change, will require mechanisms for are characterised as much by conflicting bridging the inherent tensions between ideologies as by actual evidence on ‘what different ideological perspectives. It will Historically, the private works’ in meeting basic needs. This also require mechanisms for moving from sector has largely been conflict is demonstrated by current embedded notions of ‘what should be’ to ignored as an actor in widespread global debates over more pragmatic recognition of ‘what might the development privatisation of service delivery be achieved.’ In addition to bridging organisations (such as water and power ideological differences, this will require process. More recently, utilities). In a somewhat indirect manner, increased recognition of the however, the private it is also characterised by tensions over organisational logic that underpins the sector, driven by a migration – the appropriateness of strategies advocated and implemented by profit motive has often individual ‘private sector’ actors moving different actor sets. been recognised as a to where jobs exist. key engine for Most centrally organised, state-driven approaches to development focus either generating new Organisational Logics & the on execution of activities or control over technologies, for Implications of History the activities of others. To put it another creating jobs and for way, government organisations either delivering key services. The brief history outlined above was play an executive role (they build and presented in order to make three core operate infrastructure, whether physical points that have direct relevance for the or for the generation of knowledge) or a development of strategies for responding regulatory role (they regulate the to climate change and that underpin the operation of markets, companies and shared learning dialogue (SLD) community-based or civil society methodology: organisations). The operational logic of the State is inherently large-scale delivery 1. Perspectives on the role of different and control oriented. Organisationally, it actors (states, communities and is far more difficult to implement private sector organisations) are numerous small distributed activities heavily influenced by conflicting and than larger programmes or projects. At deeply embedded ideologies. the same time, states derive legitimacy

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and power through the benefits they those associated with climate change will deliver to key constituents (whether be driven by the organisational logic of those represent the full population or a identity. This often translates into a narrow elite) and their ability to political advocacy role – the application maintain control. The strategies and of pressure on the State to deliver services types of activity likely to be advocated or meet needs. It can also translate into by states in response to climate and group-directed activities such as disaster risk will tend to reflect this community-based disaster planning or organisational logic. Large-scale, often the management of resources (from credit structural, programmes that build hard to ecosystems) at the local level. Activities resilience (protect) regions are likely to of this type that involve long-term be a common outcome. organisation and implementation rather than ephemeral issue-based advocacy. Where disasters and the risks emerging However, they generally require as a consequence of climate change are underpinning from either a public or concerned, the private sector is private sector business model. Where climate change motivated largely by the risks and is concerned, the opportunities they perceive. In terms of Globally, virtually all examples of private sector is their own operations, they will take community-based organisations that have motivated largely by steps to take advantage of potential survived over long time periods have a the risks and business opportunities and to mitigate clear source of revenue. In some cases this opportunities risks, particularly those that appear to is derived through a private sector they perceive. The present a short-term risk to their business model (revenue from service operations. Similar logic drives the provision or other goods), in some cases perceptions may be operation of small business entities through a public sector business model different, scientifically (individuals and households) as well as (contributions in return for services, substantiated impacts. global corporations. membership fees or taxes) and occasionally (as with some religions) At the community level and within civil through donations. The organisational society, responses to disaster risks and logic of community-based organisations will tend to generate specific types of responses to climate and disaster related issues.

When events occur that bring risks to the forefront, then organisation for advocacy purposes will increase. Between such periods, activities that can be underpinned by a business model of some sort are also possible. Many such CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING activities may support the building of soft resilience through activities such as education, local resource management or the provision of services that have immediate benefits for the community. These activities, in effect, provide an operational logic for the business model.

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Toward Methodological The Conceptual Origin CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER The idea of shared learning dialogues was initially developed as a structural Approaches for mechanism for both building the views of users into the research process and Shared Learning disseminating research results on an ongoing basis.

As initially conceived, shared learning dialogues were intended to consist of In order to develop effective strategies relatively informal roundtable for responding to disaster risks and the dialogues between the groups changes likely to occur as a involved in research and external consequence of climatic change, the governmental, non-governmental and gaps created by differences between private sector organisations working expert and local knowledge and the on related issues. The goal of these differing ideological histories of meetings was to ensure that cross- development need to be bridged. This fertilisation occurs between will need to occur over long time researchers and those involved in periods as knowledge on climate, risks daily implementation activities as and effective response strategies approaches and methodologies are evolves. In addition, rather than being developed, data are being focusing on strategies that emerge from analysed and results are being one set of organisational logics, prepared for dissemination. By approaches capable of creating synergy discussing and sharing perspectives at between communities, the private sector each of these stages, we intended to and government actors working at build awareness (and therefore different scales will be essential. capacity) within both implementation and research organisations regarding Bridging gaps such as the above techniques, issues and insights. We requires shared learning – the iterative also intended to build relationships transfer of information and and create opportunities and perspectives between communities and incentives for collaboration beyond the actor sets within regions and core group of organisations involved disciplines. While wide cultural gaps in the research. This would ensure that are inherent in any society, and no the capacities and ideas generated by process for this can be completely the programme could be incorporated effective, the shared learning dialogue as core parts of the wider knowledge process outlined below is intended as a and implementation environment. key process for building common This is distinctly different from understanding and encouraging conventional designs in which results reflexive learning across scales, groups and ‘capacity training’ are distinct and styles of organisation. This creates activities ‘delivered’ to implementation a basis for action in response to the organisations (and which they can risks associated with climate change take or leave) after the research has and other hazards. been completed.

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Under this conceptual approach, the important to recognise that while perspectives of the implementation clustered concepts were seen as organisations and the vulnerable indicating large bodies of shared or communities they work with would be related knowledge, it was seen as embedded in the research process equally important to review instances through the input they provide at the where concepts are used in unique stage of issue identification and ways since this could indicate the From the above initial methodology design. At the same time, emergence of new knowledge that falls roots, the concept of the back loop from research to outside of the standard discourse. shared learning is now implementation will be closed by the evolving into a long- same on-going shared learning process term process and set between researchers and implementers. Conceptual Evolution of techniques that can Points of commonality would be used to identify ‘shared knowledge’ and points From the above initial roots, the be utilised as a core where commonality is lacking would be concept of shared learning is now part of adaptation and used to identify potential locations evolving into a long-term process and disaster risk reduction where specific individual disciplines set of techniques that can be utilised as strategies. could contribute specific insights. It is a core part of adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. As part of this evolution, issues in making the Shared learning process concept operational – in particular related to the human capacities available – and transforming it from an informal approach to something Plan that can be systematically implemented and replicated are beginning to be addressed. Insights on

Learn this from experiences in communicating emerging climate Cycles of Learning information for the development of adaptation programmes in South Asia Plan

Learn Implement are presented below. First, a brief review on the sorts of climate change scenarios that South Asia faces is presented, to give an idea of the sorts

Implement of information that we attempted to Plan communicate in shared learning

Plan dialogues. Adapting & Learning & Adapting

Learn

Learn CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING

Implement Plan Implement

Learn

Plan

Event Event

Implement Scope Scope

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in precipitation patterns increases as the CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER Practical Examples from region warms, especially during the monsoon season, simultaneously raising the likelihood of intense precipitation Cases – Translating events and greater flooding, while exacerbating drought risk. The IPCC1 Climate Information into states “There is very likely to be an increase in the frequency of intense Local Contexts precipitation events in parts of South Asia…Extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones are The Climate Change Context likely to increase in …South Asia.”

The rivers and other water sources that South Asia is projected to warm about support agricultural livelihoods in 3.3°C by 2090 (IPCC, 2007), with South Asia are sustained by the warming more pronounced in some monsoon and snowmelt from the seasons than in others. Baseflow in many Himalaya. Vulnerability to climatic South Asian rivers is sustained by glacier change and variability is quite high and snowfield melt from the Himalaya. throughout South Asia. Floods, As temperatures begin to rise, the glaciers droughts and extreme storm events and snowfields will melt, initially raising regularly impact communities in the baseflows in the rivers. Once these region. However, it is through the sources of fresh water have melted out, alteration of water resources cycles that some Himalayan rivers will not be able to the impacts of increased climate meet all the water demands placed upon variability and change will be most them. These are only a few of the acutely felt. While there is still much potential climate change consequences uncertainty about specific regional for the South Asian region. Chapter 3 impacts, broad trends are emerging that provides a more in-depth analysis of the indicate that South Asia is already weather patterns important to South Asia affected by climate change. and possible impacts of climate change in the region. Observations and analysis of historical data demonstrate that India’s mean temperature has been increasing Shared Learning Dialogues approximately 0.22°C per decade since 1970. There are more warm nights and Although the need for “shared learning” warm days throughout the region. was recognised at the outset of the While warmer temperatures reduce the programme as required for the risk of frost that could damage crops, identification of practical responses to many potentially negative climate change, the development of consequences, such as a northward practical methodologies for achieving spread of malaria and changes to water forms of learning that are truly shared availability and quality could result was, and in many ways remains, a work from a rise in temperatures. Variability in progress. Conceptual clarity is often

1 Christensen, J.H. et al. (2007), Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al. (eds)., Cambridge University Press: New York. pp. 850. 103 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

difficult to translate into the messy incorporate in interactions between realities that characterise local contexts. external themselves and local The need for shared learning may be counterparts. clear – understanding climate change impacts requires combining insights Development of the SLD process through from global scientific research with the project was initiated by orienting knowledge only local populations have local partners to shared-learning regarding the specific characteristics of concepts followed by group discussion their local region — but developing a on potential approaches for putting these practical methodology to meet this need into practice in our project context. On a is in itself a process. practical level, most partners started by organising a series of meetings with Development of the SLD approach village and other communities in case outlined here reflects the complexity of study sites which they then repeated this process. All partners involved in several times. The limitations of this the regional research programme approach became clear very quickly. contributed to this process. Because the process for encouraging shared learning remained unclear, Conceptual clarity is Prior to involvement in the research meetings felt purposeless and were often often difficult to programme, most partners were familiar organised without a proper agenda. In translate into the with the broad array of essentially addition, the need for shared learning to extractive techniques used for collecting involve diverse sets of actors at different messy realities that information from communities as levels, while conceptually recognised, characterise local preparation for development activities. did not match with the “local contexts. The techniques used by partners community/village” focus typical in typically included: surveys, qualitative many development projects. Rather than information collection through trying to develop shared understanding sociological / anthropological methods across levels ranging from the local using PRA or RRA methodologies, community to higher levels in intensive focus group discussions and government or the private sector, most stakeholder meetings. Data collected meetings tended to focus within local using such tools were analysed using communities. As frustrations began to frameworks such as those developed for grow, partners exchanged extensive livelihood and capacity vulnerability notes and emails regarding experiences analysis. Such approaches are largely of SLD meetings in different project sites. analytical and extractive – intended to This intensive exchange based on initial improve understanding among the experiences with SLDs was essential for actors involved in development as a clarifying both the techniques and larger basis for project or other intervention objectives that are now central to the SLD planning. Although they involve methodology. CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING varying levels of consultation with stakeholders, the methods are not, in The intensive exchange of insights from themselves, generally used as tools for different attempts to implement SLD catalysing changes in thought either in concepts generated a variety of practical the community or the analyst. The applied approaches that are now central reflexive learning goal central to the SLD to the SLD methodology. First, it was process was difficult for partners to recognised that shared learning can’t be

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thought of in the extractive information cycle in which initial dialogue forms the CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER collection mode common in many basis for implementation decisions, stakeholder consultations – it requires a implementation provides new real exchange of information and experiences and new experiences are the insights. As a result, preparation basis for new learning. This can either (bringing new information in) is be a clear sequential process – or one essential and needs to be combined that is driven by episodic events (such with a willingness and ability to as floods) that draw attention to an “listen” to counterparts. This is the issue. essence of the two-way process. Furthermore, the process needs to be SLD experiences gained indicated that iterative. This doesn’t mean just “more to be effective: meetings” (discussing exactly the same thing twice is rarely productive). 1. SLDs need to involve a diverse array Instead it means sequential meetings – of social groups; the holding of meetings on a regular 2. SLDs involve iteration – but this basis but only when they can either add requires continuous introduction of to understanding by clarifying the new information or perspectives, not perspectives/knowledge of different just reiteration of the same The Nepal case groups, or are required because new discussion; illustrates the variety of information is available. 3. More meetings are often required at issues that can emerge local levels than at higher levels – but from the SLD process. Second, the importance of including discussions at all levels are central to multiple groups in the SLD process shared learning. became clear. Because the impacts of climate change cut across scales and The Nepal Case because responses require action across In Nepal SLD was conceived as a groups working at very different levels, process of reflexive learning in which shared learning won’t be effective and one set of stakeholders could learn from can’t translate into action if it only others’ perspectives on flood disasters involves local communities. As a result, and use that information to identify the importance of repeating the SLD strategies to reduce disaster related exercise with diverse groups in risks. The approach was intended to communities, the government, private introduce insights from the social and sector and NGOs as well as across natural sciences into established scales (local, state, nation, etc...) was theories of vulnerability and risk gradually recognised. More meetings assessment. The underlying assumption are often required at the local level in was that while technical experts know a order to articulate issues and concepts great deal about how natural systems to groups that are less familiar with work and interact, villagers are directly global issues – but some level of affected by floods and droughts and, as iteration is required at all levels. a result, are most aware of the social and environmental contexts that they deal Third, shared learning will ultimately with every day. need to be linked to action. As illustrated in the accompanying We began by creating a broad diagram, shared learning involves a framework outlining the various steps of

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the process. Preliminary meetings were In order to assess vulnerability, we followed by a series of in-depth reviewed relevant literature, reports and interactions with communities, other documents and asked local representatives of community groups partner NGOs and other key informants and government officials. The process as regarding their perspectives. We used a whole was used to formulate an the insights we gained to identify a set interactive method for carrying out of parameters, which we then discussed local-level assessments of the natural with experts to assess their relevance. hazards in selected VDCs, how Trying to include all the impacts that a vulnerable the VDCs residents were, flood-affected person is likely to face, we and for coming up with disaster risk finally developed a check-list of twenty- mitigation strategies. five parameters, each of which was to be assigned a rank ranging 1 for limited A total of eight SLDs were held: two vulnerability to 5 for severe vulnerability. national-level ones in Kathmandu and At the six village-level SLDs, participants six local level ones at the case study discussed and critiqued the parameters sites. Representatives from government and suggested modifications. Then, in a and non-government organisations simulation exercise, each participant It may not be possible (NGOs), media persons and filled in the checklist. The lessons which to conduct a formal – representatives of partner organisations emerged were used to refine the checklist one-day – district or from India participated in the national- a final time. The final checklist was used level SLD. to assess the extent of vulnerability in state level SLDs all each of the four VDCs after hazard maps the time. The objectives of the national-level SLD for each were prepared. The key were as follows: outcomes are analysed in greater detail „ Discuss how the participating in Chapter 6. organisations approach disaster risk reduction through a sharing of To summarise, key constraints identified experiences; and in the Nepal case are as follows: „ Initiate discussions of possible „ Selecting a suitable place to hold an approaches to disaster risk SLD was difficult. In many towns of mitigation and long-term the Tarai, there is no suitable meeting development, and of options for hall and if there is one, making interventions. arrangements to feed the participants is difficult. In addition the sanitation For local-level SLDs the objectives were and general environmental as follows: conditions of such facilities was „ Share the entire community’s frequently poor. knowledge about managing flood „ Another difficulty lay in the long disasters, including their response commute participants faced. While CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING mechanisms , attitudes and the participants from the village of behaviours, Bramhapuri travelled the 10 „ Assess how various affected people kilometers to Gaur, the city where the adapt to flood impacts and how they meeting was held, by horsecart, the perceive disaster risks, participants from Bhasedwa had to „ Prepare local-level hazard maps, and travel 25 kilometers. The longer „ Develop and finalise a vulnerability- distance meant more time had to be assessment tool.

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spent and made for more logistical „ Ideas put forth by community CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER difficulties. members must be respected. „ The poor condition of the road Recognising that impractical ideas rendered the trip uncomfortable. will naturally get filtered out as they „ Women participants preferred not to progressed with the SLDs, spend a night in a local lodge. They facilitators must still list out the wanted to return to their homes. ideas they disagree with. Since they had to reach home before „ Context-specific local knowledge sunset, the sessions had to be will enrich expert knowledge and terminated earlier than planned. The vice-versa. While local communities problem of assembling participants often consider expert knowledge to in a common meeting hall or site be more valid than their own, SLDs could easily have been avoided by should serve as an opportunity to holding the SLDs in respective challenge this misconception. villages, but only if there had been „ The notions of vulnerability that sufficient resources and manpower. local participants bring to In any case, some degree of discussions consists of a number of commuting was inevitable because stories. While these may appear interaction among residents from incoherent, they have important Key constraints different villages also had to be held. institutional, cultural, and social identified were: „ There was often insufficient time implications for reducing difficulties in arranging allocated – and available for the vulnerability. meeting places; discussions. „ SLD is a useful method for getting „ Communicating with participants the members of a flood-affected difficulties participants was a challenge. While many could community to begin considering the had in travelling; time understand Nepali, they could not nature of local hazards and the constraints; and issues speak it well. The low average level of sources of vulnerability. of communication educational achievement was another „ Techniques such as social mapping between the different factor complicating discussions. This are more useful when they are used actors. limitation was addressed by in conjunction with existing involving research associates skilled topographic maps. The in speaking the local language. communities develop a much better appreciation of the character of a On the basis of the SLDs we conducted, hazard by using such maps. we drew the following general lessons: „ Members of a community are „ SLDs are useful mechanisms to ordinarily enthusiastic about using facilitate the exchange of information participatory tools and about among researchers and local people. making presentations regarding „ Field staff must work as a team by their experiences and develop a taking an egalitarian approach to strong sense of ownership of their dialogue. problems and the solutions they „ Field teams need to understand the identify. issues of climate change and disaster „ The processes of SLDs need to be risk reduction. Key ideas about these thoroughly documented. Every issues should be made available in a point community members make language locally understood prior to and every step taken must be holding SLDs. recorded.

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The Uttar Pradesh Case responses represents an important part In Uttar Pradesh the case areas selected of the context in which SLDs were being for evaluation are, as described in more conducted. Our focus in conducting the detail elsewhere in this publication, SLDs was to identify alternative near Gorakhpur. Since India’s strategies for risk management that independence, disaster risk reduction could be contrasted with these existing interventions in the area by the control-based strategies. Alternative government have emphasised structural approaches to flood and drought control. Large amounts have been management are being explored, mostly invested, primarily in embankments. by NGOs. These approaches are part of These, along with the expansion of the dialogue on disaster risk reduction roads and railways have altered natural in the region – but have often not been drainage patterns substantially. As a translated into specific actual actions result, the flood disaster context is that can be implemented. The flood disaster heavily affected by the larger process of context is affected development and the history of flood As with other partners on the project, we by the larger management attempts. This is also the began conducting SLDs with a view to case with drought where expansion of collecting data, information, and process of well irrigation coupled with changing community perceptions on disasters development and agricultural practices has substantially and vulnerability from the project the history of flood altered vulnerability to droughts. villages. Information from a previous management Overall, unlike the Nepal case, the study conducted in these villages was attempts. history of structural control and other used to understand characteristics of the

Inundation Flood Rain Fall

Sanitation Problem Inundated field Submerged handpump CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING

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area. The SLDs were initiated with a CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER standard set of conventional focus For undertaking the SLDs and other group discussions in the project elements of the research, our local villages. In each village, SLDs were held partner organisationsation, PIEDAR, in which community members as well took the lead field role. PIEDAR was as panchayat members participated. responsible for hiring a field team for They identified and discussed the research purposes and because of other issues and problems in the village. on-going work in the research area, had an established field office in The SLDs were supplemented with Rawalpindi. PIEDAR recruited a team scoring and ranking methods to identify of one team leader and two research (and prioritise) the most severe assistants specifically for this research. problems, giving preference to problems Training workshops and detailed faced by the community at large over discussions were held with the field problems faced by individual study teams to sensitise them to the households. In-depth discussions were ethos and techniques involved in held on the problems. Causes and conducting SLDs. Some of the salient effects of risks were analysed using points stressed to the field teams social maps developed in a included the following: Although clearly participatory manner with the „ SLDs are meant for exchange of conceptualized, key community. The SLDs resulted in information rather than extracting it. elements necessary to identification of a package of „ In order to encourage sharing across change such concepts interventions that are different from the all communities, the field team must large structural measures that have have a non-hierarchical structure regarding the dominated past flood control efforts and and open channels for articulating importance of shared can be implemented at the village level. dissent, and clarification of learning into a practical These measures are currently being information. SLD methodology at evaluated as part of our larger study of „ Field teams must not passively the field level had not the costs and benefits of disaster risk depend upon the more specialised been tested. reduction study. topical specialists of King’s, ISET or PIEDAR to hand down information The Pakistan Case or methodology guidelines. Instead Research in the Lei Basin in Rawlpindi the field teams should be active was originally planned to be learners engaged in constant implemented through a series of shared communication with the topical learning dialogues. Although clearly specialists, in addition to reading conceptualised, key elements necessary and researching the issues of to change broad concepts regarding the concern for the SLDs. importance of shared learning into a „ Communities and the institution practical methodology had not been based research subjects must be tested in the field. In consequence, we approached in a spirit of mutual confronted considerable difficulty in respect in a spirit of truly shared implementing it as a methodology. The learning as well as extracting process we ultimately went through to information. achieve this illustrates both the power „ Contextual local knowledge can be and challenges inherent in such enriched with expert knowledge and processes.

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vice-versa. Neither type of interacting with the research subjects knowledge should be given in an extractive mode rather than an dominant attention and respect. The information-sharing mode. The field goal of SLDs is, in fact, directed reports were also lacking in the type of towards achieving precisely that richness and nuance that was expected balance. from SLDs. Therefore, instead of the „ The interaction between local and SLDs being the bedrock of research and expert knowledge could and should analysis at the community level, other yield actionable suggestions, in our methods, such as secondary data case, for mitigating vulnerability, analysis and the group meetings ended identifying institutional, cultural, up being the main conduits for and social points of leverage for vulnerability analysis. policy interventions and for clarifying the social and perhaps Limitations on the ability to even economic benefits and costs of successfully conduct SLDs appeared to different courses of action. arise primarily from the nature of the „ The implementation of SLDs must be field teams. Although the teams had thoroughly documented and the substantial field experience (or Limitations on the temptation to filter information or perhaps precisely because of this ability to successfully various steps in conducting experience), they had substantial conduct SLDs fieldwork must be resisted. difficulty moving out of more project directed top-down forms of interaction appeared to arise The dialogue in each site was with local communities. In addition, primarily from the conducted in gender-segregated although the field teams had nature of the field groups. Although it may have been substantial training in the objectives of teams. possible to have the dialogue in a the SLDs, they did not have substantial mixed group, previous experience experience with climate related issues. shows that women do not speak up in As a result, they may have been limited large gatherings, especially in the with respect to the number of new presence of male participants. Their ideas/perspectives they were able to inputs and discussions in the same-sex bring to the dialogue. Overall, success groups are much richer and and failure, like most things in life, unrestricted. Therefore, a team of two appeared to depend heavily on the researchers carried out the dialogues nature and training of the people with one conducting the proceedings implementing the process. Perhaps it and the other recording them. Audio- is important that more highly trained visual aids were also used to make people than the field team members recordings as the communities in implement the methodology. In fact, it’s question allowed their use. This possible the field team model is not allowed for better documentation and suitable for implementing SLDs–the CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING the possibility of data mining in the process cannot be delegated down by future. researchers. Instead, researchers with a view of the research problem and its Unfortunately, despite the training, in context ought to be doing it themselves. many cases the team was unable to move beyond a classic focus group Despite the above limitations, the SLDs discussion with the field team conducted in the Lei have had major

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benefits. They resulted in a two-way accompanying Tamilnadu case study CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER dialogue where the research team, after (Chapter 9). All the shared learning recording the views of the respondents, dialogues involved intensive discussion also shared results from previous regarding the impacts of climate change research and technical details on various on coastal regions and the potential issues like costs of various risk reduction response strategies. The dialogues options, climate change forecasts and resulted in a relatively clear breakdown consequences of the river realignment, regarding points where perceptions etc. They also provided, in some cases, regarding the implications of climate the opportunity of sharing viewpoints change and potential response across a range of actors - an exchange strategies converge between different that does not take place in normal groups and where they diverge. circumstances. Village level SLD Overall, the SLD process was Following an initial scoping process instrumental in getting a wider involving background information perspective on the flood hazard in the Lai collection and a series of relatively floodplain. It was also a good tool to unstructured SLDs, the SLD process disseminate technical knowledge on targeted at the village level was refined SLDs in Tamilnadu disaster creation among various actors. and carefully structured. The steps in dialogues resulted in a There seemed to be a considerable level of this process were as follows: relatively clear appreciation for such thinking in some „ Found various boundary partners in breakdown regarding quarters and, in others, the organisational the region objectives had to be protected. „ Developed relationship with NGO points where Coordination and Resource Center perceptions regarding Only one round of SLDs has been done and with few other NGOs in the region the implications of so far. The ultimate value of the approach „ Collected from NGOs baseline climate change and needs to be assessed after a couple of information on the region and a potential response rounds. potential list of villages where we strategies converge could start our work The Tamilnadu Case „ Selected villages after prolonged between different Unlike the Pakistan case where SLDs consultations groups and where they were conducted by a local NGO, SLDs in „ Identified various social groups such diverge. Tamilnadu were organised and as: fisher community, small and conducted by a research-focused marginal farmers, Scheduled Caste organisation, Madras Institute of farmers and landless agricultural Development Studies (MIDS). The labourers, shrimp farmers, SHG shared learning dialogues were members, women labourers, village conducted at three levels (within villages leaders/village institutions etc. Care in different coastal ecosystems, at the was taken to include both groups district level and at the state level), with that are generally perceived as being specialist groups (primarily research vulnerable to climate impacts and institutes, civil society organisations, those that are thought to be less government organisations and the vulnerable. private sector). The methodological „ After identification, SLDs were structure followed in the Tamilnadu case planned and carried out with each is outlined in a diagram contained in the one of the identified groups. Before

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conducting a SLD, our technique State level SLD was to visit the village on the The key learning and emerging issues previous day and identify the from the SLDs conducted at the village potential participants and prepare and district levels were taken to a state them for the SLD on the next day. level SLD workshop. The state level SLD Usually, each SLD takes about 4 to 5 (which was a day’s workshop) was hours. At the end of it, we identify attended by state level officers such as the potential participants from the next Relief Commissioner, the Revenue social group and prepare them for Secretary, officials from the meteorology the SLD to be conducted the next department, officers from insurance and day. The number of participants in banks, NGOs, state-level and district each SLD varies from 6 to 20 and level fishermen and farmers’ leaders, participants are both men and researchers among others. women. „ After documenting and synthesising Insights Emerging from the Local, a series of SLDs, MIDS organised a District and State Level SLDs district level SLD. The results of all SLDs conducted at the village, district these were then taken to the state and state levels indicated strong points of Where impacts of level SLD. convergence with respect to the climate change are „ After a gap of a few weeks, local level implications climate change has for concerned, SLDs were repeated with more coastal regions. Perspectives on potential questions and with refinement. courses of action, however, converged in perspectives on the some points and diverged in others. threat to coastal District level SLD regions emerging A district level SLD was organised with Where impacts of climate change are from the IPCC and a view of flagging the insights gathered concerned, perspectives on the threat to other sources largely from village SLDs for further dialogue coastal regions emerging from the IPCC converged. with district level officers, agencies and and other sources largely converged. community leaders. Organising a Villagers already believe they are losing district level SLD took considerable time land to changes in sea-level – as the case – for organising logistics, identification study documents, they could clearly of potential participants and so on. Key indicate regions where the ocean margin participants at the district level SLD has submerged large tracts of land include the district disaster during recent memory. Much of the management officer, the District coastal region is already below sea-level Collector, officials from the fire service, and virtually all of it is within 5 meters of the forest department, insurance it. Salinity increases due to companies, an officer from NABARD, encroachment of sea water on coastal researchers, an agricultural research lands and aquifers are also widely center soil scientist, the Director of NGO recognised as likely to be exacerbated by CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING Coordination and Resource Center at climate change. The impact of cyclones Nagappatinam, several NGOs, a local on coastal areas was in the forefront of cable TV operator, mobile operators, the mind of most local actors as well – farmer and fishermen leaders, and along with the implications of any women from SHGs. This was a day’s increase in cyclonic frequency or workshop, which was attended by 40 intensity. From the local perspective, participants. agricultural yields and production have

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already decreased by at least 50% due to skill acquisition in non-fishing and CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER natural disasters such as cyclones, sea non-farm activites was widely water and fresh water floods, land and identified as essential to respond to groundwater salinity. the impacts of climate change on coastal areas. Where response strategies were 6. Crop shifting: Within agriculture, concerned, approaches that emerged shifting to salt resistant crops, in regularly at all levels in the SLD process particular traditional varieties of included: paddy. 7. Development of infrastructure that is 1. Structural control measures: In most adapted to projected changes: There dialogues there was an initial was substantial debate regarding emphasis on the need for structural the type of houses that should be measures (regulators, drainage constructed for people who live channels and river embankments) to close to the sea. Reinforced concrete control flows and limit the ingress of construction does not survive long saline water. because the steel gets corroded very 2. Financial mechanisms: Improvements quickly. Many suggested tiled in credit and insurance to reduce houses to cope with the corrosion Many of the strategies reliance on informal systems, reduce problem, but a few also argued that, identified through SLDs losses due to climate related events from the point of view of coping would probably be and enable the development of new with cyclones and high speed recognised as economic activities were widely winds, concrete houses are far identified as essential in order to better. important across the reduce the impacts of climate change. 8. Improving administrative capacities to spectrum of actors 3. Drinking water supply: Improvements respond to extreme events. Floods, from the global in drinking water supply to coastal cyclones, etc. happen every year but scientific community to areas to enable populations to the administrative capacity to local villages. Others, remain as salinity increases. handle these disasters is often however, represent 4. Weather information and early warning: viewed as inadequate and Improvements in weather unsustainable. points of divergence in information and early warning 9. Improved environmental management: perspectives. systems were frequently identified as In particular managing mangrove a key need in response to projected and dune ecosystems for coastal changes in weather patterns. protection and controlling pollution Weather information is currently to improve the productivity of viewed as grossly inaccurate. Only brackish water areas emerged as a very obvious warnings at very regular priority in the SLDs. obvious times are issued, whereas accurate predictions well in advance Many of the above strategies would were sought. Currently the fishing probably be recognised as important population depends upon local across the spectrum of actors from the knowledge for 90% of their weather global scientific community to local forecast needs. villages. Others, however, represent 5. Shifting occupations: Improving the points of divergence in perspectives. ability of local populations to shift From a technical perspective, for occupations through education and example, the construction of river

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regulators in large deltaic areas could To achieve this it is necessary to have a only provide an interim level of good audio-recording system to record protection if sea-levels rise the day’s proceedings. substantially. As a result, this type of approach represents a space where perspectives diverge and the Key Issues in the Current development of further understanding SLD Process from Tamilnadu would be required to determine whether or not it could contribute to adaptation. Some of the key insights from the SLDs include: Where the practical logistics of the SLDs „ Perceptions of hazards and risks vary were concerned, success depended greatly between groups. Though heavily on organisation. The overall, at the village level, droughts In many cases, core programme for the district level SLD and floods are perceived to be a form needs to be carefully designed in such a common of disaster, the village level elements of meaning way that key emerging issues from the definition of ‘hazards’ often did not are difficult to translate village level SLDs are presented one by tally with the official or other across scales. one so that dialogue is generated. definition used. For example, Village level SLDs take time – people villagers define drought as those often bring out standard approaches periods when their crops require that they have experience with or have water but there are no rains. This seen in other areas. It takes time and definition is different from that used work to get them to think beyond these by the state government which is approaches. Finally, for the meetings to based on deficit in total magnitude of build off each other, it is important to annual rainfall as compared to have a clear record of what was said. normal value. Similarly, where the

Saving Group Jeevan Jal CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING

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external (expert) concern was over affected by floods to cope with the CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER storm impacts, villagers perceive that losses that they incur due to these waterlogging is a critical ‘hazard’. events. Finally, frequent but low impact events were seen as a critical set of „ Improvements are needed in a variety of hazards versus low frequency disaster control measures. Examples disasters with high impacts. In included issues with early warning relation to this, four important systems and crops. Where early questions emerged which warning systems are concerned, stakeholders felt are important to there was a widely articulated need consider while designing DRR for them to devolve below the region, strategies: district or block level to the village • How do we sustain proposed level. People of Lakshmipur village adaptive strategies for DRR suggested that if they could receive (insurance, communication information on water levels then mechanisms, early warning systems) preventive measures could be taken for low frequency but high impact to save their asses, including crops disasters? (in one flood event at least). At • Should the focus be on high present people get some information SLDs at the state frequency but low impact disaster on the probability of flood events level proved to be events while developing adaptive through newspapers and radio. Such an effective tool for strategies, albeit keeping high information is not considered expanding the impacts events in mind? specific enough for them to gauge if • How do we integrate overall their village is likely to be affected or dialogue to cover development with adaptive not. Currently, the villagers self- policy issues in strategies? monitor water levels in the river addition to field- • How do we address the fact that flowing next to their village. They use based issues. market and larger political dynamics this observation to assess if a flood is can exacerbate the vulnerability of likely. Where alternative crops are local communities? concerned, farmers were interested in knowing about suitable alternative „ A variety of local practices exist to crops that they could cultivate so as reduce risk. These take the form of to minimise crop damage due to diverse activities villagers are flood (or poor rainfall) events. These implementing on their own in could include early-sowing, short response to the hazards they face. duration crops that can be harvested Such activities include: (1) Storing of before the onset of the flood prone seeds: Traditionally people store season (July-August), including seeds that were bartered after a those that can survive in waterlogged disaster. Currently only small conditions. farmers preserve seeds while richer and large farmers purchase them Where the research process was from the market. This practice of concerned, the SLD process proved quite storing seeds has been a recent effective. The SLDs, for example, helped phenomenon; and (2) Migration: gather perceptions on costs and benefits Seasonal migration helps local of DRR strategies/measures. communities that are regularly Embankments as a preventive measure

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against floods were characterised as both department representatives were often a boon and a bane. The case of defensive at first. Once they understood Lakshmipur illustrates this well. the objectives and processes better, Lakshmipur village (eastern UP) has a however, they tended to give achievable ring bund constructed 35 years ago. The incremental ‘way ahead options’ for bund almost surrounds the village. In disaster interventions through SLDs. 2001, the embankment protected the Overall, the Tamilnadu experience village from floods. But subsequently the indicates that: embankment breached washing away part of the village. This breach also led to the „ SLDs conducted with disaster formation of a pond on arable lands. The affected communities at the field level ring bund also blocks the drainage of can serve both as a platform for rains that fall within the area resulting in sharing experience and also help waterlogging. Though soil is fertile, identify useful solutions for agricultural productivity of the area is problems. affected. The Irrigation Department is „ SLDs can act as a triangulation and responsible for the maintenance of the validation tool for data and bund, but it is poorly maintained. As a information collected from other Repetition is generally result there is a threat of it breaching and sources; essential in order to inundating the village. The SLDs at the „ SLDs are useful in capacity building observe evolution in state level also proved effective. They of community members and of the enabled expansion of the dialogue to cover project team. the way local policy issues in addition to discussing „ SLDs can be useful as a two-way counterparts view and field based issues. They enabled knowledge transfer process. It can incorporate climate or discussion of the needs of communities enable communication of technical hazard information in and the policy changes (if any) required to information and details of global their own perspectives. meet such needs. Put simply the SLD warming to local communities. At the helped discuss the issue of ‘how best to same time, it enables communities to translate policy into action.’ explain the impacts at the field level (both existing and expected) in terms The above said, care was needed in of occupational mobility, migration managing the SLD process to make it patterns, livelihood systems, etc. effective. Without careful management, „ SLDs can be used to create a the discussion often shifted immediately continuous engagement with into questions such as: ‘Who should stakeholders that goes beyond giving undertake activities?’ and ‘What needs to feedback or sharing project be done?’ This was often premature – experiences and findings. The before any real shared understanding of process becomes inclusive and the problems and alternatives for integrative as stakeholders at addressing them had evolved. In different levels understand that this CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING addition, the various government is not a one-off exercise.

116 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

dialogue process and the attitudes, CATALYSING DIALOGUE PROCESS ADAPTATION LEARNING CLIMATE SHARED AND THE CHANGE: RISKS TO DISASTER Summary of Experiences willingness to learn and technical familiarity with the issues involved is of critical importance. Many socially and Ways Forward focused development processes have downplayed the role of technical knowledge. Understanding risk and the implications of climate change does, however, require basic familiarity with technical concepts.

While the need for reflexive learning 3. Mechanisms for harvesting lessons: processes is clear in both the disaster Systematic processes need to be risk reduction and climate adaptation developed for harvesting the cases, the initial attempts to develop and exchange of knowledge and implement this type of process have documenting the evolution of raised a series of key issues, many of perspectives on strategies for which are central to most strategies for responding to hazards and climate participatory development. These change across scales. Major issues include: challenges exist in ensuring actors at different levels do not filter out or 1. Deeply embedded attitudes on the part of ignore insights from other levels. The development experts (including contents of field notes from SLD ourselves) regarding the process and meetings were, for example, often not objectives of research and reflected in the write-ups produced implementation programmes. Analysts by actors charged with guiding the tend to either focus on ‘bottom-up’ process. Recording, transcription approaches that emphasise and qualitative analysis of the community perspectives and dialogues is being done – but this is processes or on ‘top-down’ time consuming and may not be approaches that emphasise the role replicable in many programme of high-level actors. Reflexive contexts. learning across these scales requires an uncomfortable balancing act. 4. Managing the chain of learning across scales: The capacity and mechanisms 2. Capacities of available staff. In the issues discussed above greatly Pakistan case outlined above it was complicate the management of extremely difficult to capture learning across scales. The reflexive perspectives or knowledge expressed learning objective central to the SLD in meetings at different levels process needs to be clearly because of the embedded understood along the full chain of perspectives available staff brought actors involved in research and the to the process. In addition, the staff development of programmes from the had in many ways as much difficulty very local level up to state or national understanding the implications of policy actors. In many cases, core climate change or hazards as local elements of meaning are difficult to communities. Who is guiding the translate across scales. As a result,

117 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

the ability of facilitators to work at would need to be structured and made multiple scales may be of central much more systematic. As envisioned importance for such processes to here, an overall process of this type work. would have five core steps:

5. Accessibility of the process for key 1. Scoping to identify key actors and groups: As with many social dialogue features in regional contexts that or stakeholder processes, access can determine hazards and patterns of be affected by gender, class or other vulnerability. considerations. Identifying the sets 2. Building common understanding to of boundary partners or groups it is identify potential interventions to important to work with and ensuring reduce risk and respond to climate accessibility of the process is a change; critical issue. 3. Structured review of potential interventions through a strategic 6. Objectives of the process: Researchers mapping process that evaluates involved in SLD processes often view proposed interventions to avenues for them as mechanisms for data either directly reducing risk and To move beyond collection on capacities and supporting adaptation or to existing experiences vulnerabilities, livelihoods or other strengthening the underlying systems with SLDs and create community characteristics rather that enable populations to respond to than understanding the reflexive risk and change processes as an effective process for learning objective. While conditions evolve; reflexive learning in information on such characteristics 4. Financial analysis of costs and response to hazards can and does arise out of the SLD benefits of interventions including and climate change the processes, lack of clarity on objectives sensitivity to key uncertainties; and sets of activities would can be a key constraint. This is also 5. Implementation need to be structured the case with local counterparts and made much more involved in such dialogues. Initial Shared learning dialogue processes dialogues are often viewed only as would dominate the second of the above systematic. part of project planning or research. steps but are present at each phase and Repetition is generally essential in should, ideally, provide a basis for order to observe evolution in the way cycling back from implementation to local counterparts view and another round where learning replaces incorporate climate or hazard scoping but the process otherwise information in their own remains identical. The structured review perspectives. step is the critical element required to translate the array of potential The above types of issues are probably interventions identified through shared inherent in any process intended to learning into courses of action that can CATALYSING ADAPTATION TO DISASTER TO RISKS CHANGE: THE AND SHARED CLIMATE LEARNING ADAPTATION PROCESS DIALOGUE CATALYSING encourage learning and the actually be implemented. The core development of new knowledge across activity in the structured review step disciplines and scales. To move beyond would be to map potential interventions existing experiences with SLDs and onto a matrix that relates them to the create an effective process for reflexive factors known to support risk reduction learning in response to hazards and and adaptation either directly or at the climate change the sets of activities level of underlying systems.

118 CHAPTER6

Flood Disaster Impacts and Responses in Nepal Tarai’s Marginalised Basins

Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya, Anil Pokhrel, Kanchan Mani Dixit, Deeb Raj Rai and Madhav Devkota „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Case Study Guidance Note

Country: Nepal Location: Nawalparasi and Rautahat Districts. The coordinates of four study sties are: a. Brahmapuri N 26o 44' E 85o 19' b. Bhasedwa N 27o 02' E 85o 14' c. Rampur Khadauna N 27o 26' E 85o 43' d. Devgaun N 27o 29' E 83o 42' Date: May 2007 Sector and Spatial focus: Flood related disasters and Northern Gangetic plains Title: Flood Disaster Impact and Responses in Nepal Tarai’s Marginalised Basins Bibliographical reference: Dixit A. et al. (2007) Flood Disaster Impact and Responses in Nepal Tarai’s Marginalised Basins

Abstract The Gangetic plain is home to some of the poorest populations in the world. Their impoverished living conditions are often attributed to regular floods and drought-like conditions. Flash floods, inundation for prolonged periods, bank-cutting and sand-casting devastate life, livelihoods and property for the already poor, especially within marginalized (smaller, un-gauged) river basins. Each disaster makes the poor more vulnerable to the next and, consequently, each single disaster is converted into a process. The problem of flooding is exacerbated by built systems including flood control embankments and urbanisation which constrict natural drainage patterns. In addition, communities report increasing rainfall intensities and changes in the timing of precipitation, especially in the last few decades. This also exacerbates flooding.

This paper presents preliminary findings of a programme in the Nepal Tarai on disaster risk reduction (DRR) and adaptation to climate change. The study includes pilot testing of some strategies identified in four sites within the Bagmati and the Rohini river basins. Adaptive FLOOD DISASTER DISASTER AND AND RESPONSES RESPONSESFLOOD FLOOD IMPACTS IMPACTS TARAI’S TARAI’S IN IN NEPAL NEPAL MARGINALISED MARGINALISED BASINS BASINS strategies for four communities in these two river basins have been identified using a number of tools. These are segregated as adaptation specific interventions and underlying systems for adaptation.

Technical Description „ Hazard/risk type: Flooding „ Type of assessment: Research to understand the factors that constrain and enable local communities to reduce risk and adapt to climatic and other sources of vulnerability.

Contextual Notes „ Frequent shifting of rivers has permanently displaced homes in Bhasedwa and Brahmapuri village development communities (VDCs) of Rautahat District over the last two decades. In Devgaun and Rampur Khadauna VDCs of Nawalparasi District, most displacement is temporary. Families take shelter at their relatives or in public buildings such as schools during periods of high floods. „ Prior recovery attempts in all four VDCs were primarily limited to distributing petty relief materials such as food and blankets. In some VDCs, organisations such as the Nepal Red Cross

120 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ FLOOD DISASTER IMPACTS AND RESPONSES IN NEPAL TARAI’S MARGINALISED BASINS BASINS MARGINALISED MARGINALISED NEPAL NEPAL TARAI’S TARAI’S IN IN IMPACTS IMPACTSFLOODFLOOD RESPONSES RESPONSES AND AND DISASTER DISASTER

Society, Oxfam GB and local NGOs have initiated group formation, distribution of information kits, installation of communication equipment, wooden boats and construction of small shelters. „ Construction of physical infrastructure such as canals, roads, railways and efforts in ‘taming’ rivers has had negative consequences. Structures, built along the Indian border, have in many instances been related to the cause of flooding. During flood periods people commute long distances in search of daily labour. „ The eastern Tarai political unrest has intensified despite a peace accord to end a decade-long insurgency. Protests (mostly violent) and unexpected and continuous strikes have affected accessibility to the communities and delayed visits to communities since January 2007. In the third week of March 2007, about 30 people were beaten to death in Gaur, the district headquarters of Rautahat. Brahmapuri, one of our study sites, is situated 5 kilometers east of Gaur.

Research and Analytical Process „ Methods/tools used: Scoping, Shared Learning Dialogues, Household Surveys, Mass meetings, Capacities and Vulnerability Analysis, Ranking, etc. „ Role of Climate Information: Climate information is non-existent. People hear weather information on radio and television programmes.

Key Insights Generated for Vulnerability Reduction and Capacity Enhancement „ In all four project sites, poor access to information and gender issues emerged as major factors contributing to vulnerability. Information refers to policies, news, radio, knowledge about relief activities, information on floods/rainfall and knowledge of selling price for local produce in nearby towns. „ Women, particularly pregnant women, lactating mothers, women who have recently given birth, elderly women, the disabled and menstruating women are more vulnerable. „ Spontaneous measures of adaptation (such as building flat-roof houses, two-story houses and houses on raised plinths) have been widely observed. Livelihood elements that are not likely to be much affected by inundation or flooding are also increasingly pursued. Examples include an increasing preference for water buffaloes over cows and ducks over goats. In addition, young men migrate in search of alternative livelihoods. „ Adaptive strategies can be categorised into climate adaptive interventions and underlying systems of adaptation. Tables A and B present the findings.

Potential Strategies Identified See tables at the end of this guidance note.

Strategic Notes and Lessons Learned - Key Points to Emphasise The study has provided three main lessons. First, in the last 50 years there has been reliance on the structural or macro or engineering approach to mitigate flood damage. The concerns of affected individuals, families and communities have not been systematically woven into decision- and policy making. Government policies have not contributed to building resilience for coping with floods. Second, cooperative efforts of the governments of the region have been technologically guided in a project-centric mode. Despite repeated references to flooding and the need for its mitigation in pubic discussions, cooperative efforts have not aimed at building institutions for mitigation. Third, institutional dysfunction is widespread as state agencies fail to innovate in effective responses to flood disasters. 121 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

| TABLE A | Adaptation Matrix for Nepal VDCs: Adaptation Specific Interventions Disaster Risk Organisation Skill Financial and VDC Diversification Ecosystem Reduction and Incubation Development Risk Spreading Communication

Rampur Farming on land Community Seed bin storage, Self-help groups, Non-formal Crop and cattle Early-warning Khadauna affected by sand forest improved homes and saving and education, insurance, life system, rain casting (e.g. plantation shelter (e.g. hooks on credit, community insurance, gauges, guava, existing flat roofs to tie community health and savings and networking watermelon). tents), boats, raised groups, train sanitation credit group through Productivity roads, first aid kits, local youths to awareness formation by volunteer enhancement. raised tubewells; become trainings, cooperatives organisations, Access to forest panyalo (RWH), volunteers at exchange visits, theme land line and resources, chlorination, hanging times of disaster gender mobile phones, diversification of seed beds, improved sensitisation, CDMA, income cooking stove, spurs accounting and community FM, (floriculture, construction with leadership radio nurseries, etc.) bamboo sticks and training, programmes, TV sand-filled bags, seed promoting biogas and press banks and briquette

Devgaun Farming on land Planting Installation of Self-help groups, Exchange visits Savings and Establish rain affected by sand Ajambari on demonstration treadle savings and to communities credit group gauges at local deposition (e.g. existing spurs pumps, provision of credit, where farming formation by schools and banana, guava, drinking water where community on land affected cooperatives monitor daily watermelon), tubewells are groups by sand theme rainfall. Transmit contaminated with deposition is rainfall records arsenic currently tried to FM stations.

Bhasedwa Promotion of Planting trees Making life jackets with Train local Exchange visits Savings and Establish rain sugarcane farming along the used mineral water youths to to communities credit group gauges at in areas likely floodplains bottles, construction of become where farming formation by schools in the affected by floods. and planting a demonstration toilet volunteers at on land affected cooperatives upstream New crops in Ajambari and sanitation times of disaster by sand theme catchment of areas affected by along spurs awareness deposition is Lal-Bakaiya and sand deposition programmes, currently tried monitor daily (e.g. banana, smokeless stoves, rainfall. Transmit FLOOD DISASTER DISASTER AND AND RESPONSES RESPONSESFLOOD FLOOD IMPACTS IMPACTS TARAI’S TARAI’S IN IN NEPAL NEPAL MARGINALISED MARGINALISED BASINS BASINS guava, construction of rainfall records watermelon). platforms in existing to FM stations, House wiring tubewells, support for set up CDMA reviving existing phones tubewells, alternative water supply for areas contaminated by arsenic

Brahmapuri New crops in land Planting trees Construction of a Train local Street theatres Savings and Establish a affected by sand along the demonstration toilet youths to to demonstrate credit group warning system casting (e.g. Bagmati River and sanitation become ways to protect formation by linked with the banana, guava, embankment, awareness volunteers at oneself and cooperatives Karmaiya watermelon) planting programmes, times of disaster property during theme barrage Ajambari on smokeless stoves, floods. Training regulating office, existing spurs construction of to work as establish a platforms in existing reporters communication tubewells, support for (especially for centre reviving existing those who tubewells manage information centres)

122 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ FLOOD DISASTER IMPACTS AND RESPONSES IN NEPAL TARAI’S MARGINALISED BASINS BASINS MARGINALISED MARGINALISED NEPAL NEPAL TARAI’S TARAI’S IN IN IMPACTS IMPACTSFLOODFLOOD RESPONSES RESPONSES AND AND DISASTER DISASTER

| TABLE B | Adaptation Matrix for Nepal Sites: Underlying System for Adaptation

VDC Education Transport Organisation Livelihood Communication

Rampur Training, advocacy, Wooden or plastic boats, Network with organisations Bicycle repair Discussion platforms Khadauna adult education, school temporary boats made such as Oxfam, Nepal Red shops for policy issues, support activities, of banana trunks and Cross Society and Dipecho listeners' clubs scholarships for poor bamboo or inflated supported programmes children tubes

Devgaun The village is considered a Candlestick Setting up of vegetable farming pocket. making, incense listeners' clubs Organise exchange visits to stick making, promote different varieties of bicycle/motorbike vegetables repairing

Bhasedwa Use inflated tubes, rafts Train local made out of banana entrepreneurs to trees/dried bamboo etc. cast rings for toilet to be used during times vaults and set up of inundation sani-marts

Brahmapuri Use inflated tubes, rafts Networking among different Train local Set up mechanisms made out of banana groups formed by Dipecho, entrepreneurs to for communicating trees/dried bamboo etc. CPDR, Lutheran, Oxfam and cast rings for toilet seasonal market to be used during times Nepal Red Cross Society vaults and set up prices at different of inundation sani-marts bazaars for select commodities

Disasters can be used as opportunities for creating new avenues to allow vulnerable groups to reduce their vulnerability.

Keywords: Floods, Marginal Rivers, Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Adaptation, Nepal Tarai, Himalaya-Ganga, North Gangetic Plains.

Resource person(s): Ajaya Dixit ([email protected]), Anil Pokhrel ([email protected]), Kanchan Mani Dixit, Deeb Raj Rai and Madhav Devkota ([email protected]), ISET-Nepal.

123 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Mountainous areas will face glacier The Larger Context retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission scenarios by 2080).” (p. 11)

Current projections by the IPCC indicate that average precipitation levels in the Ganga Basin will increase by about 20%, and climate change projections indicate The summary of the fourth IPCC report that variability and the frequency and (2007) states that “With regard to intensity of extreme weather events such changes in snow, ice and frozen ground as large storms are also likely to increase. (including permafrost), there is high Climate change will not only affect the confidence that based on growing region’s hydrology, but also alter evidence the following types of temperature regimes, wind patterns, and hydrological changes will take place:” storm tracks. In addition, land use Changes in patterns and aerosol pollution will precipitation will “Increased run-off and earlier spring directly affect local weather patterns. necessarily change the peak discharge in many glacier- and Impacts on the types of crops planted, snow-fed rivers.” ( p. 3) flow of rivers and the type and extent of vegetation coverage, and urban island heat effects thereby the likelihood Referring to the Himalaya region in will be significant. Changes in of flooding. particular the report continues: precipitation will necessarily alter the flow of rivers and thereby the likelihood “Glacier melt is projected to of flooding. Paradoxically, while floods increase flooding, rock avalanches will be of greater magnitude, so, too will from destabilised slopes, and affect the incidence of drought conditions. water resources within the next two

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS to three decades. This will be What exactly the impact such changes followed by decreased river flows as will have on the Ganga Basin is not clear the glaciers recede. ( p. 10) — though have an impact they will. The Ganga Basin is not a homogenous land Heavy precipitation events, which are system; instead, it encompasses a very likely to increase in frequency, highland and lowland hydro-ecological will augment flood risk. (p. 7) system that analysts have defined as the Himalaya-Ganga (see Figure 1 for a In the course of the century, water schematic diagram of the Himalaya- supplies stored in glaciers and snow Ganga and the northern Ganga Basin). cover are projected to decline, The system consists of diverse ecological reducing water availability in regions zones and includes hundreds of ethnic supplied by melt water from major groups that speak different languages.1 mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population The highland and lowland system in the currently lives. (p. 7) Ganga Basin encompasses Nepal, India

1 For a discussion on Himalaya-Ganga see Gyawali and Dixit (1994). 124 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

| FIGURE 1 | The Himalaya-Ganga region and river systems BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

1

a Karnali TIBET b 2

c NEPAL

9 3 Narayani 8 d Kosi 4 BHUTAN Ganga Ghagara 6 e 5 Lucknow Bagmati INDIA Kamala

Yamuna Allahabad Patna Ganga Varanasi Brahmaputra BANGLADESH

0 200 400 km

and Bangladesh. The people living in moisture-deficit landscapes promoting In the Himalaya-Ganga this region are among the poorest in the the growth of vegetation and crops and, region the monsoon world. Their impoverished living consequently ensuring the success of rains sustain conditions are often attributed to the people’s agriculture-based livelihoods. agriculture but are a regular floods which occur during the A few weeks after their onset, these same devastating hazard. monsoon seasons (June-September) and life giving rains are responsible for to the drought-like conditions that widespread flooding. Cloudbursts, prevail after the monsoon rains are over landslides, mass movements, mudflow (Bandhyopadhyaya, 1999). This flood- and flash floods are common in the drought regime is the natural outcome of mountains, while in the plains of the region’s climate and hydrology. southern Nepal, northern Uttar Pradesh, Since the climate and hydrology of the Bihar, West Bengal and Bangladesh region exhibit micro-level variations, rivers augmented by monsoon rains their impacts will differ. overflow their banks. Sediment eroded from the upper regions of rivers is Although the monsoon rains are crucial transported to their lower reaches and for sustaining agriculture in the deposited on the flood plains of valleys Himalaya-Ganga region, they are also a and the Tarai. Rivers cut their banks major hazard. After the onset of the and shift laterally, creating serious monsoon in June, rains saturate the problems as people lose their land and

125 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

their crops, the very basis of their lower regions of Himalaya-Ganga. They livelihoods. People and communities also function as drainage channels have developed livelihood systems that transferring large volume of water are adapted to such disruptions. They received during the monsoon in upland take advantage of the fine sediment regions, plain catchments and in delta brought by floods which increases regions to the ocean. The region’s rivers agriculture productivity, and struggle to constitute a densely-packed network of move the large sized sediment deposits. streams: In fact, its river drainage density People face significant problems when of 0.3 km/km2 reflects just how close the sedimentation blocks watercourses drainage channels are (Shankar, 1985). causing stagnant water or when swollen Nepal alone has more than 6,000 rivers rivers inundate the land — but when totaling about 45,000 km in length. The social and economic continuity is tributaries of the Ganga River in Nepal disrupted people cope. In recent years, contribute 71 % of its natural historic dry however, these natural processes have season flow and 41 % of its total annual changed due to the impacts of human flow. The rivers of the Ganga Basin are interventions and it has become more both a boon and a bane to the population difficult for people to adapt successfully. of the region: while they feed regional Rivers feed regional The building of embankments for flood groundwater aquifers, serve many groundwater aquifers, protection, for example, obstructs irrigation systems and maintain serve many irrigation tributary rivers and by blocking drainage ecosystems, monsoon flooding in these can extend flood periods. Furthermore, very rivers brings widespread systems, and maintain because embankments are poorly devastation. ecosystems but are maintained they frequently breach also the source of bringing large tracts of land under The rivers of Nepal can be classified floods. inundation and causing sand deposition. broadly on the basis of their dry season In short, interventions often contribute to flow as Himalayan, Mahabahrat and rather than prevent flood disasters. Chure. The four major Himalayan rivers (the Kosi, the Gandaki, the Karnali and Tributaries and streams serve as a the Mahakali) exhibit a sustained dry

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS hydrological link between the upper and season flow derived from snow and

| FIGURE 2 | The hill plain composite showing portion of Bagmati and Rohini basins

Nyalam

Mustang Sailung Manang Thakkhola Indrawati Chautara

Pokhara Kali Gandaki BhasedwaBhasedwa TansingTansing

Butwal BrahmapuriBrahmapuri Devgaun

Rampur Khadaund

Adapted from Hagen (1998) BAGMATI ROHINI

126 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

glacier melt. According to Sharma (1977), discharge even in the dry season. The BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER snowmelt in Nepal begins in March and flow of these rivers usually peaks in July continues till August, when monsoon or August, but the exact timing depends rains also add to the flow. The seven on the volume of rainfall. Because slopes Mahabharat rivers originate below the are steep, Chure rivers flow with high snowline in the middle hills and drain velocities until they reach the Tarai, the region located between the where the high energy generated is Himalayan basins. They are spring-fed dissipated as rivers form meanders once and augmented by the monsoon rains. they emerge onto the plains. The nature The third type of rivers originates in the of the riverbeds and the pattern of Chure range and run parallel to the channels of a Chure river vary Himalaya. Composed of fluvial deposits according to its reaches. In the upper of the Neogene age (Upreti and Dhital, reaches, the steep slope bank-cutting 1995) the Chure range is the active stage and mass movement processes result in of the tectonic movement of the lower a high sediment load. In the Tarai, the Himalaya (Hagen, 1998) and is made up same rivers will meander and change of debris eroded over the last 40 million course. The hydrological characteristic years. Its elevation varies from 150 to of these rivers have not been studied in 1,800 meters. The hydrology of the detail and their flooding results in more Most smaller rivers are several Chure rivers is characterised by damage and devastation than is thus far not on the radar individual peaks, a fact suggesting that understood while they collectively cause screen of the national their discharge is highly influenced by more devastation than the other two governments but are rainfall. When there is no rainfall, these types. Despite their hazardous nature, rivers exhibit very low flow, almost zero these rivers are not on the radar screen the locus of major in the upper reaches. In the lower of the national governments of the flood events. reaches, however, groundwater and base region, which instead focus their flow and contribute to flow and these attention on the major tributaries of the reaches may contain significant Ganga River i.e. the first and second

FlashFlash floodflood isis aa majormajor hazardhazard inin valleysvalleys ofof © A Dixit thethe mountains.mountains.

127 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

type rivers. The Chure rivers are termed commuting and migrating to seek marginalised rivers. This definition employment have reshaped livelihood emerged in the Duryog Nivaran meeting systems while the social and political in Dhaka in 1995.2 communication systems are undergoing rapid changes. Such changes add new Chure rivers flow first across the Nepal layers to the people’s ability to adapt to Tarai and then across the contiguous the regular occurrence of flood and landmass of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and drought. West Bengal. Their catchments extend from Uttar Pradesh in the northwest to As mentioned above, the impacts of the Darjeeling hills in the east and the hydro-meteorological hazards induced Ganga River in the south and have an by climate change need to be area of about 80,000 km2. The area is disaggregated according to ecological crisscrossed by hundreds of a third type zone. Each region, the plains, the hills of river. In Nepal, the Chure rivers drain and the mountains must be viewed a total of around 18,860 km2 consisting differently in order to assess critical of the Chure range and the Tarai. The impacts. The recession of glaciers in the catchments of most individual Chure Himalaya range, for example, will affect The recession of rivers are generally less than 350 km2. the overall water balance in the glaciers in the These rivers are used extensively for respective basins but the exact nature of Himalaya range will irrigation and thus support agriculture, its impact needs more investigation. the local economy and community Glacial melt may further exacerbate the affect the overall livelihoods. Using pumps and wells the risk associated with Glacial Lake water balance in the contiguous groundwater aquifers are Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Other respective basins but drawn on to meet drinking and differences include the fact that Nepal’s the exact nature of irrigation needs. As these rivers flow western hills and Tarai experience more its impact needs from Nepal to India, they acquire a trans- days without rainfall than the eastern more investigation. boundary character. hills and the eastern Tarai. At the same time landslides, mud flows, debris The Tarai region of Nepal is an flows and bishyari (landslides into

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS extension of the Gangetic plain. Together rivers) are common in the middle they are home to millions of people who mountains. Floods inundate areas in practice agriculture-based livelihoods. In the Tarai, where instances of bank- the last five decades, the region has cutting and sediment deposition on witnessed tremendous growth in productive land may increase. infrastructure development. Roads, irrigation canals, railway lines, flood This paper explores the nature of flood control embankments and urbanisation disasters in two regions in the Nepal have all constrained drainage and Tarai. It presents our experiences in thereby further exacerbated the impact of assessing flood hazard and flooding. Both, the Nepal Tarai and the vulnerability in selected village Gangetic plain are somewhat isolated development committees (VDCs) with from technological and economic the objective of piloting disaster risk globalisation but nonetheless are reduction activities and adaptation affected indirectly. In particular, plans.

2 BDPF, Duryog Nivaran and BUET (1995)

128 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

3 reaches of the two basins. Altogether BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Study VDCs 1,008 households were surveyed then. For the current adaptation/DRR pilot phase, the selection of VDCs was based on the following criteria.

„ Presence of a partner organisation,4 „ Incidence of human induced flood hazards and „ Characteristics of the rivers.

On the basis of the above criteria, four The study includes a series of case VDCs, two in each river basin were studies and investigations of two selected, Rampur Khaduana and districts of the Nepal Tarai, which are Devgaun in Rohini Basin, and Bhasedwa susceptible to flooding. The study sites and Brahmapuri in Bagmati Basin. The are situated in the lower Bagmati and the latter two villages are located in the doab Rohini river basins. Our earlier adaptive (between river areas) of the Bagmati and study project (Moench and Dixit, 2004) Lal Bakaiya rivers in Rautahat District, was based on empirical evidence while Rampur Khadauna and Devgaun collected in eight VDCs. It focused on the are located in Nawalparasi District of situation in the head, middle and tail Nepal (Figure 3).

| FIGURE 3 | Rautahat and Nawalparasi (Tarai) districts along Bagmati and Rohini rivers

3 See Moench and Dixit (2004). Poudel et al. (2004) has done a study of flood hazard in Rautahat District. 4 The boundary partners of the study are the Center for Disaster Mitigation (CDM) and the Support Oriented Organisation (SOS) and the Community Support Organisation (CSO).

129 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

The findings about these VDCs are 1993 Bagmati Flood expected to help in the development of In 1993, central Nepal received very adaptation plans and in the high rainfall because of a low monsoon implementation of selected key measures weather system. This affected the which will serve as pilot activities in catchments of Agra, Belkhu, Malekhu, disaster risk reduction. and Mahesh kholas, which drain the northern Mahabharat face, as well as Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of the Jurikhet, Mandu, Manahari, Lothar flooding in all four VDCs, which as a and Rapti kholas, which drain the result experience inundation, bank- southern face. These sub-basins are cutting and sand deposition. In Rampur located in the Gandaki River system. Khaduana, drainage congestion The Kulekhani river in the Mahabharat exacerbates the adverse effect, while in range flowed into the Bagmati before Brahmapuri, embankments built in the the Kulekhani Hydroelectric Project state of Bihar along the border of Nepal was completed in 1981. The cloudburst and also along the lower reaches of the also affected this project. The storm Bagmati River in Nepal have a similar then moved eastward and settled over result. The VDCs studied are indicated Ghantemadi in the catchments of Drainage congestion in Figure 3. The VDCs in the Rohini Marin and Kokajhar kholas of Sindhuli exacerbates flood Basin are located upstream of the study District in the Bagmati Basin (MOWR, effects. villages in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. 1993). Both are tributaries of the Bagmati River. A station in Tistung in the Kulekhani catchment recorded 540 Nature of Hazard mm of rainfall in 24-hours on July 19, the maximum 24-hour rainfall ever All three types of rivers discussed above recorded in the history of Nepal. The have contributed to flooding in the resultant massive swelling of the Himalaya-Ganga since time immemorial. Bagmati and its tributaries caused Widespread damage over the last major flood devastation in the mid-hills century was caused by numerous floods and the lower Bagmati Basin. It

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS including those in 1927, 1954, and 1972. severely damaged the Bagmati barrage, More recent flood disasters took place in its equipment, its gate control system, 1987 and 1988 in Bangladesh, in 1993, sections of the main canal, and the in the Bagmati River of Nepal and in housing colony for staff. 1998, in parts of Nepal and Eastern Uttar Pradesh which drain the Rohini River, The flooding in the Agra, Belkhu and Bihar, West Bengal and Bangladesh The Malekhu kholas of the Gandaki River monsoon of 2007 has also resulted in system had a devastating impact on widespread flooding and brought their watersheds, while the washing out devastation on a large scale in Nepal, of the bridges along the Prithvi India and Bangladesh. This flood was Highway isolated the capital caused by excessive rain but specific Kathmandu from the Tarai. When the details, such as, those about the nature flooding in the Jurikhet khola severed and magnitude of the rains have yet to be the penstock pipe of the Kulekhani HEP, analysed. In the following sections, we the country lost almost half its total highlight the impacts of the 1993 and installed electricity capacity from the 1998 floods. Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS).

130 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

| TABLE 1 | Loss of Life and Property due to 1993 Floods in the Bagmati Basin BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

Livestock Infrastrctures Affected Houses damaged Land loss loss FMIS Food grain Total District loss HHs Popn. Death Completely Partially (area in ha) (Km) Road Bridge Dam building Public loss Worth (NRs) Bhaktapur Kathmandu 10 58* 2 8 0 3 159 0 0 0 0 0 0 867,274,750 Lalitpur 0 0 6 57 51 135 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 ** Makwanpur 14,748 101,482 242 1,732 1,879 4,656 665 7.92 16 1 251 118 119,864,381 Kavre 2,958 10,642 20 914 92 1,030 159 0 0 0 0 0 0 86,274,750 Sindhuli 11,051 59,142 52 1,206 1,314 4,061 1,930 26 41 5 6 24 1,186 86,349,764 Rautahat 14,644 89,146 111 2,003 4,541 1,366 3,211 40 13 0 1 37 31,673 899,680,261 Sarlahi 15,560 83,265 687 7,066 8,494 25,966 17,736 266 81 4 117 184 0 1,118,918,500

Note * Generated data Source: Developed from Photo Album, Disaster of July 1993 in Nepal, December DPTC (1993) ** Missing data

As a result of the floods, about 1,300 July and August 1998 were Upper catchments people died nation-wide with about 111 exceptionally wet, with both the upper experience major from Rautahat District. In all, 73,606 and lower regions receiving high cloudburst events. families were affected and 39,043 rainfall. In addition, several cloudbursts houses were fully or partially damaged. also occurred, particularly in the upper About 43,330 hectares of fertile land was catchment where the number of washed away by floods or covered by cloudbursts and wet days was greater landslide debris and 367 kilometres of than it was in the lower catchments. In the road that connected the capital with fact, the rainfall in the region was three the Tarai and its retaining structures times higher than the normal. According were damaged. Six major bridges and to the Meteorological Department, the twenty-five culverts were damaged or total rainfall in Gorakhpur as of August washed away. In addition, 20 was 1,232 mm, a record in and of approximately 37 large and small itself. Then, on August 24, a record irrigation systems and thousands of rainfall of 460 mm in 24-hours fell. farmer managed schemes were damaged. Furthermore, 213 wooden and The impact of the flood was not limited suspension bridges were washed away. to Parasi and Eastern Uttar Pradesh; it Altogether 452 schools, health posts and also caused widespread damage in government buildings were damaged Bihar, West Bengal and Bangladesh. (DPTC, 1993). The extent of loss is According to the un-starred questions in shown in Table 1. the Rajaya Sabha, India lost 1.393 million ha of crops, a total comprised of 1.224 1998 Rohini Flood million ha in Bihar, and 0.131 million The 1998 monsoon rains in the Rohini ha in West Bengal. The damage in Basin arrived during the last week of Bangladesh was still more devastating. June and were fully established by the Almost two-thirds of the country beginning of July. The monsoon began (100,000 km2) was submerged. The in the lower catchment of the basin and inundation continued for 65 days, spread over the foothills of the upper marooning 33 million people, of whom catchment in the north. The months of 18 million needed emergency food and

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Blocked aqueduct causes drainage congestion. © A Pokhrel

The 1998 flood was health services (Ahmed, 1999). The flood property worth over Rs. 680,000. caused an caused serious damage in Dhaka, Because of the low gradient in the lower exceptionally wet seriously affecting the health, housing, region, inundation was widespread and monsoon in food, security, employment, long-lasting. The havoc created in the conjunction with a communications and livelihood of the doab5 life was widely reported in the FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS major cloudburst. urban population (Nishat et al., 2000). local media. From the first week of July The rainfall recorded in 1998 was till the end of August, death, among the highest recorded in recent inundation, house collapse, cutting of times but could be a regular event in the banks, breaching of embankments, natural cycle of the region. However, blanketing of land with sand, disease since rainfall events have not been and damage to infrastructure, including monitored on a long-term basis it is roads, bridges and power lines difficult to draw conclusions regarding prevailed. trends or changes in periodicity and attribute them to impacts of global In Uttar Pradesh, the districts of climate change. The flood affected 279 Gorakhpur, Gonda, Baharaich, Sravasti families in different parts of and Balarampur Siddharthanagar were Nawalparasi District. It washed away affected. Floodwaters disrupted road about 24 hectares of land and damaged and train services. About 1,300 people

5 For details, see Report on Eastern Uttar Pradesh Flood by People Commission (1998).

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| TABLE 2 | Loss of Life and Property due to 1993 Floods in the Rohini Basin BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

Livestock Infrastrctures Affected Houses damaged Land loss loss FMIS Food grain Total District loss HHs Popn. Death Completely Partially (area in ha) (Km) Road Bridge Dam building Public loss Worth (NRs) Nawaparasi 279 1,604* *** 2 ** 24.04 0 ** ** ** ** ** ** 680,000 Rupandehi 1,446 8,315* 18 128 ** 0.14 1 ** ** ** ** ** ** 68,190,300

Note * Generated data Source: Developed from Photo Album, Disaster of July 1993 in Nepal, December DPTC (1993) ** Missing data *** Not clear whether there were no deaths or the data is missing. Ethno-history of two study VDCs does not report any deaths.

and an estimated 2,800 livestock died in areas, killed hundreds and displaced the districts of Gorkhapur, Maharajgunj, millions. Agricultural and other losses Deoria and Kushinagar. Gorakhpur were high but are still being assessed. became an island after blocked the road Disease has spread throughout much of that linked the city to other cities. Nearly the flood-affected region, affecting both 95 % of the affected dwellings were huts. rural and urban populations. The In most of the affected villages monsoon flood of 2007, although above floodwaters remained for three months. long-term averages, is far from Climate change will Sand deposition affected 11,253 ha of unprecedented. Indeed, floods are a alter flood hazards and land in 148 villages; the depth of the regular feature of life in the basin, probably increase sediment deposited ranged from one to important for soil fertility, aquifer them. seven feet. Water-borne diseases caused recharge, and a healthy regional additional deaths. ecology. As the misery of so many inhabitants of the basin clearly The 1998 flood was not an aberration. demonstrates, current approaches to Nine years later, in 2007, the region flood management are unable to faced a similar situation as flood waters mitigate the impacts on human lives caused by the monsoon rains swept the and livelihoods. If climate change South Asian landscape. In parts of the projections prove accurate and flood Ganga Basin in Nepal, India and events become more frequent or extreme, Bangladesh, flooding inundated large this inadequacy will increase.

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Lal Bakaiya and Chandi are its major Natural and Social tributaries. The two study villages are located in the doab of the Bagmati and Characteristics of the Lal Bakaiya rivers. The Lal Bakaiya River begins in a small VDCs Studied dun (valley) of Makwanpur District and flows to Rautahat District before joining the Bagmati in Bihar a few kilometers downstream of the Nepal-India border. In Makwanpur Districts, it is called In order to examine the context of flood Bakaiya, but when it reaches the Tarai hazard and vulnerability, we examined and takes on a reddish tinge from the the natural and social characteristics of soil of the Chure range it is known as Lal the case study sites. Bakaiya. The catchment area of the Lal Bakaiya River is 168.75 Km2, and its average high flood discharge during the Natural Characteristics monsoon is 2,365 m3/s at Karmaiya. Floods lead to Though its catchment is five-times inundation bank Bagmati Basin smaller than that of the Bagmati River, cutting and sand The Bagmati River Basin in central Lal Bakaiya causes more damage. Floods 2 in the river last for just four or five hours deposition. Nepal covers an area of about 3,750 km . The river’s watershed includes parts of but river flow is flashy and brings a lot of eight districts: Kathmandu, Lalitpur, sediment load. Bank-cutting and sand Bhaktapur, Makwanpur, Kabhre, deposition are common in adjoining Sindhuli, Rautahat, and Sarlahi. The VDCs. Lal Bakaiya, as well as the Bagmati River begins north of Lakhandehi, Ratu, Jhanj, Kalinjor and Kathmandu, at Shivapuri, and drains Fuljor rivers drains the Chure range and out of Nepal into Bihar, where it joins the Nepal Tarai before joining the the Kosi River near Badla Ghat in Bagmati in Bihar, but the catchment

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS Khagaria before joining Ganga River. areas of these rivers are not included in Nakkhu, Kulekhani, Kokhajor, Marin, that of the Bagmati River in Nepal.

| FIGURE 4 | Profile of Bagmati river

3000 Shivapuri range 2000 Kathmandu Sundarijal Teku Dobhan Teku Nakkhu Khola confluence Damodarghat Mahabharat range Chure range Kulekhani Khola confluence Altitude (m)

1000 Tarai Kokhajor Khola confluence Marin Khola confluence Raigau Mahendra Highway bridge Chandi Khola confluence Badharwa Brahmapuri 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Distance (Km)

Note: The red dots in the profile indicate points where tributaries join the Bagmati River. Source: DWIDP (2005)

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| FIGURE 5 | Schematic view of Bagmati and Lal Bakaiya rivers and dependent area BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

MAHABHARAT

CHURE RANGE

Bhabar

To Nijgadh Bagmati barrage East West highway Chandranigahpur To Dhalkebar Bagmati bridge Bhasedwa NEPAL

Lal Bakaiya River Bagmati Irrigation Canal

Rautahat district Gaur

River Brahmapuri ra Manusma iver R ati Bairgania Bagm

t n e km n a b Sarlahi district m E

Bairgania Garland Embankment

Railwa Border embankmey line on pillars nt

Embankment Bagmati river

NORTH BIHAR INDIA

Flooding within the lower Bagmati doab, Rohini Basin where the river gradient is about four- The Rohini is a tributary of the West Embankments meters per kilometer, is a consequence of Rapti River, which in turn flows into the constrain natural morphological disruptions in the Gandak River north of Gorakhapur. drainage. Bagmati and the Lal Bakaiya. Both Though it begins in the Chure, the river rivers are embanked and extend far into crosses the Indian border after draining Nepali territory. Bairgaina Block of parts of Rupandehi and Nawalparasi Bihar is situated between the Bagmati districts. Most of the area it drains is in and Lal Bakaiya rivers and borders the 1,960 km2 district of Nawalparasi, Rautahat District of Nepal. The entire which has four distinct geographical block is surrounded by embankments in zones: the hills, the inner Tarai, the a structure known as a ‘garland Chure and the Tarai. The Parasi plain is embankment’. The northern portion of a continuation of the north Gangetic this embankment runs parallel to the land system. In Nepal, the average Nepal-India border, obstructing natural north-south width of the Tarai plain drainage. As a result, the river floods varies between five and 40 km. The areas within Nepal, including Gaur catchment area of Rohini lies between Municipality and Brahmapuri VDC. the municipality of Butwal in

135 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Rupandehi and the Daunne hills of has a total catchment area of 2,686 km2, Nawalparasi District. The eastern part 794 km2 (30 %) of which is in Nepal. of Butwal located in the watershed of This 30 % contributes more run off than the Tinau River also drains into the that generated within the lower Rohini. Thus, the Rohini and its catchment in India, because the tributaries drain the area lying between catchment in Nepal receives more the Narayani (the Gandak) River in the rainfall. Of the total area in Nepal, 505 east and the Tinau River in the west. Its km2 is in Parasi District and 289 km2 in main stem begins at Chauranghi in the Rupandehi. The Rohini River system Chure hill and flows into the basin’s and its tributaries drain almost all of the western section. A number of tributaries Parasi Tarai. The Jharahi and Dhanewa (nala, kholsa, khahare, khola and streams) rivers join each other after they flow into flow into the main-stem as it flows India and together are called the south. As they flow, the tributaries Chandan River. With its tributaries from change course, split into distributaries Nepal and Uttar Pradesh, the Rohini and captures neighbouring streams. In joins the West Rapti River near Nepal, the tributaries of the Rohini are Gorakhpur. The drainage area of the the Jharahi, Dhanewa, Bhumahi, river in the plains of both Nepal and Chure rivers are Bhaluhi and the Somnath. Each begin as Uttar Pradesh is contiguous to that of flashy in nature. an ephemeral stream (khahare) on the the Tinau (called the Kuda in Uttar southern slope of the Chure and later Pradesh) in the west and the Gandak in joins the Rohini before that river enters the east. Uttar Pradesh at Mishrauli of Nautanawa Block. The slopes of the Rohini River and its tributaries change within a few Of the Rohini’s total length of 122 km, kilometres of their origin in the Chure 43 km lies in the bhabar and upper Tarai range. Because the gradient is low, they of Nepal; the rest is in India. The Rohini have a tendency to meander and deposit sediment. Even though the slope is | TABLE 3 | Summary of Characteristics high, sediment deposition is greater in FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS Bagmati Basin the upper reaches because the bulk of Characteristic Bagmati River Lal Bakaiya River Rohini Basin the sediment is derived from mass Area (km2) 3,750 806 194 wasting, and consists of cobbles and pebbles, which readily settle out. Finer Length (km) 207 116 The longest main within Nepal is sediment, in contrast, moves further 43 km. downstream. The lower reaches of the Rohini receive sediment from the Maximum Elevation 2,716 2,135 Begins at 850m at Chure drops to upstream sections as well as from the 100 m. erosion of bed and banks. With the cessation of rainfall, flow velocity Minimum Elevation 71 72 reduces and large amounts of sediment District Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Makwanpur, Bara, Nawalparasi and begin to be deposited in the riverbed and Bhaktapur, Makwanpur, Rautahat Rupandehi Kabhre, Sindhuli, on flood plains, while suspended loads Rautahat, and Sarlahi are transferred still further downstream. Tributaries Manahara, Bishnumati, Lohajor, Bakaiya, Jharahi, Bhaluhi, In the lower reaches because the stream Nakkhu, Marin, Kayan, Bunda, Hile, Majhi, Simat, Dhanewa gradient is less than 0.1, the effects of Kokhajhor, Chandi, Burani, Sukaura, Jyamire, floods are severe. Manusmara Harda, Dhansar, Bhavar

136 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Social Characteristics Rampur Khadauna, Bhasedwa and BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Brahmapuri the equivalent figures are In the following sections, we discuss the 69, 77, and 62 % respectively (Table 5). socio-economic conditions of the four VDCs based on information collected at As shown in Table 6, literacy rates in the ward level using tools such as Brahmapuri, Bhasedwa, Rampur transact walking and semi-structured Khadauna and Devgaon VDCs are 34, interviews. Transects and interviews 39, 52 and 49 % respectively. Literacy is were conducted with local NGOs, CBOs higher in the two Rohini Basin VDCs and network staff and with volunteers than in the Bagmati Basin VDCs. In all to gather information about flood VDCs female literacy is substantially problems, as well as about adaptation lower than male. strategies and their advantages and disadvantages. Brahmapuri has the largest proportion (41 %) of landless households and The 20,399 inhabitants of the four VDCs Rampur Khadauna, the least (19 %). live in 3,066 households, about the same Between 9% and 14 % of landless number in each VDC. The two VDCs of households in the four VDCs rent land Rohini Basin house 9,756, while those of for agriculture purposes, while the the Bagmati Basin house 10,586. The remaining landless households earn a economic status of the people is poor. livelihood through daily wage labour. For the most part, families suffer food In Brahmapuri, only 27 % cultivate shortages. In Devgaun, for instance, just private lands, in all three other VDCS 62 % of the population produces enough the proportion is 40 %. About 40 % of food for more than six months, while in landowners rent their land to others.

| TABLE 4 | Households, Population and Area of Study VDCs District/VDC Household (Nos) Total Population Male Female Area (km2) Population density Nawalparasi 98,340 562,870 278,257 284,613 1126 500 Devgaun 845 5,424 2,819 2,605 9.44 575 Rampur Khadauna 659 4,389 2,273 2,116 3.75 1,170 Rautahat 88,162 545,132 282,246 262,886 2162 252 Bhasedawa 935 6,254 3,252 3,002 9.75 641 Brahmapuri 627 4,332 2,230 2,102 9.19 471

Source: Field Survey (2006) | TABLE 5 | Household Food Sufficiency by Months

Not enough Enough for Enough for Enough for Enough for Surplus VDC 3 months 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months HHs Total HHs Devgaun Number 237 138 140 103 135 92 845 Per cent 28 17 17 13 16 11 Rampur Khadauna Number 118 156 174 93 74 44 659 Per cent 18 24 27 15 12 7 Bhasedhwa Number 404 199 97 136 60 39 935 Per cent 44 22 11 15 7 5 Brahmapuri Number 258 152 90 72 37 18 627 Per cent 42 25 15 12 6 3 Total HHs 3,066

Source: Field Survey (2006)

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The amount of land in the Bagmati We asked villagers to assess the impact Basin used for agriculture is decreasing, of floods. Their responses are listed in the amount in Rohini is constant, and in Table 8. Villagers identify bank cutting, Rampur Khadauna it is increasing (See sand deposition and inundation as the Figure 6 (a) and (b)). main impacts.

| TABLE 6 | Literacy Rate (%) (for Population 6 Years and Above)

Female Male Total VDC population % population % population % Devgaun 2,605 35 2,819 67 5,424 49 Rampur Khadauna 2,116 31 2,273 68 4,389 52 Bhasedhwa 3,002 20 3,252 44 6,254 34 Brahmapuri 2,102 28 2,230 52 4,332 41

Source: Field Survey (2006)

| TABLE 7 | Land Tenure Type

Households under different land tenure Own land Rented to Own Total VDC cultivated others plus rented Rented Landless households Devgaun 335 (40) 83 (10) 224 (27) 107 (13) 96 (12) 845 Rampur Khadauna 263 (40) 66 (10) 210 (32) 64 (10) 56 (9) 659 Bhasedhwa 368 (40) 120 (13) 210 (23) 85 (9) 152 (17) 935 Brahmapuri 167 (27) 59 (10) 142 (23) 84 (14) 175 (27) 627

Source: Field Survey (2006)

| FIGURE 6 | Status of agricultural land

a) Rohini Basin b) Bagmati Basin

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS 1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600 Area (in bighas) 400 Area (in bighas) 400

200 200

0 0 Upto 1950 1951-1958 1959-1968 1969-1978 1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008 Upto 1950 1951-1958 1959-1968 1969-1978 1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008

Year Year Devgaun Rampur Khadauna Bhasedwa Brahmapuri

138 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

5. Individual-, local-, and national- BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Assessing Context of Flooding level shared learning dialogues (SLDs) about people’s perceptions of flooding, damage (land, crop, human life, animal life) and impact on pre-, during and post-flood situations were conducted.

Ethno-History and Trend Analysis

Before we discuss the state of Since the objective of the study was to vulnerability the affected and the results identify activities that would enable of the SLDs, it is useful to recount the communities to adapt and to help ethno-history of flooding in the region. disaster risk reduction, it adopted a The analysis of floods in Bhasedwa and bottom-up approach beginning with Bramhapuri VDCs of the Bagmati Basin affected communities and backed up shows that large-scale devastation with insights from research and central- occurs during extreme events such as level functionaries. Primary information the one in 1993, but that in other years was generated through participatory as well, agricultural land is inundated rural appraisal (PRA) techniques and a and houses are damaged. household survey. The following specific methodologies were used. Rohini Basin Historical analysis of floods, 1. Reconnaissance visits to the populations and natural resources in concerned districts, including the Rampur Khadauna and Devgaun VDCs headwaters of the rivers of Nawalparasi, Rohini Basin shows 2. A social map of the hazards in each that floods are neither sudden nor VDC was prepared and transposed unexpected. Floods in the Piruda River on a topographical map (1:25,000) of in the northeast and the Bhaluhi River the VDCs. in the northwest damage cultivated land 3. The number of households in the and crops in Devgaun VDCs. In 1950, identified hazard zone was listed 2,100 people lived in 400 homes and and their vulnerability assessed. cultivated 1,000 bigha of land. The 4. A time line recording trends was current population is 5,424 living in 841 prepared households but they own only 993 bigha

| TABLE 8 | Effects of Flood Bank cutting Sand deposition Inundation Cultivable Other Cultivable Other Cultivable Other Property damage and loss of lives VDC land use land use land use House Cowshed Human Livestock Devgaun 29 15.5 11 10 990 63 80 85 150 Rampur Khadauna 45 1,095 44 40 Bhasedhawa 175 8 246 25 10 25 40 2 10 Brahmapuri 58 76 35 14 41 1

Source: Field Survey (2006)

139 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

| FIGURE 7 | Methodology schematic

Preliminary visit and exploratory SLDs at RK/DG (Aug. ‘06), BH/BR (Sept. ‘06)

Local SLDs Media

Rampur Khadauna – 75 – Nov. 4, ‘06 Bhasedwa- (105) (150) Nov. ‘06 Devgaun- 50 – Nov. 5, ‘06 Brahmapuri- 50- Nov. 1, ‘06 National Level SLD Kathmandu Nov. 23, ‘06

n Key local issues identified n Concepts of VIDCAP n Preparation of VIDCAP Baseline format Representation n Preparation of VA - Women - Caste - 17 + 20 participants SLD on VIDCAP baseline format, VA and simulation - (7 w, 10 m) & (4 w, 16 m) - Dec. 10 '06 and 2-5 Jan. '07 w = women m = men

n Corrected VIDCAP Baseline format Corrected VA

n Preliminary Hazard Map (Social map layered over topographic map)

n Simulation Results

VIDCAP = Village Development Committee Adaptation Plan of cultivated land. Small-scale irrigation VA = Vulnerability Assessment began in 1951 and pumpsets were introduced in 1969. An irrigation canal serves about 500 bigha in Devgaun, but

Clarification of methodology for collecting baseline data and the supply of water is unreliable. vulnerability assessment tool: - PRA in each of the 9 wards of each of the 4 VDCs The Dhanewa River flows from the - Identify families living in known hazard prone sections - Administer VAT to every family within that region northeast south and the Jharahi River - For the remainder of the households in that section, administer VAT to one quarter of the population randomly selected. flows from the southwest to encircle the boundaries of Rampur Khadauna. The

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS population of the village in 1950 was SLD for boundary partner 2,000 and 800 bigha of land were 3 days, 21-23 Jan 2007 cultivated. The survey in May 2007, showed that the population had Polished tools for VIDCAP baseline, VAT preparation of map preparation (Social and topographical) increased to 4,884 living in 664 households and that 1,190 bigha of land were cultivated. Untill 1968, Rampur Baseline collection in all 4 VDCs Khadana had five bigha of forest which 29 Jan to 5 Feb 2007 met the villagers’ needs for firewood and fodder, but it was cleared and converted into agriculture land. The Dhanewa and Local hazards map and listing of households for VAT Jharahi rivers began to cause flood damage in 1961. Inundation is currently most severe in wards 7, 8 and 9. Administering VAT There was no motorable road in the Preliminary VIDCAP village untill 1992. The main road linking

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Rampur Khadauna to Parasi is graveled | TABLE 9 | SLD and Vulnerability Assessment Matrix BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER while local roads are paved with bricks. Step Activity Small drains were built in the VDC after I Identification of VDCs representing head, tail strata of the river. 1993. II Identification of local hazards within each VDC. III Preparation of timeline and Ethno-history of floods. Local people mentioned that untill 1970 IV PRAs at ward level of four VDCs flooding improved productivity in some V Vulnerability Assessment in each VDC. sections of Devgaun VDC. The river water brought clayey loam suitable for growing rabi crops such as arahar (yellow lentils), peas, gram and masuro The figures indicate that the extent of (red lentils). Merchants from nearby deforestation has increased almost Indian towns came to the village to buy seven-fold after the floods in 1970 and the harvests. In the last thirty years, 1975, which damaged 100 and 10 bigha productivity has declined substantially of cultivated land respectively. Fifty and crops such as arahar, peas, masuro households were displaced in 1978 and and gram are not grown anymore. 50 bigha of land were destroyed between 1979 and 1988. During the 1993 floods Bagmati Basin 100 households were displaced and 40 In both basins Floods in the Lal Bakaiya River affect bigha of cultivated land was damaged. floods are a regular Bhasedwa while floods in the Bagmati Another 100 households were displaced phenomenon. River affect Bramhapuri. Each year both and crops growing on 100 bigha were rivers create havoc during monsoon. destroyed when the Bagmati canal The Bagmati has moved three kilometers embankment began breaching after westward in recent years resulting in a 1999. The extent of flood devastation is loss of land and depositing sand on a perceived to be increasing and the substantial area. Before 1969, villagers communities lose cultivated land, crops, claim that floods were not a problem. In livestock and property each year. At the 1966, the Indian Railways diverted the same time, the degradation of forest and Bagmati from its western to eastern grazing land is rapid. channel in order to protect the railway lines. Wooden piles were dug and spurs constructed along the western channel. Embankment along Brahmapuri.

These interventions altered the local © A Pokhrel river dynamics and exacerbated the impacts of flooding on Bramhapuri.

About 100 households in Bramhapuri have been displaced in the last two decades and only 100 of 334 bigha of agriculture land remain. In Bhasedwa, about 600 households were displaced. About 700 bigha out of a total of 1,250 bigha is cultivated in Bhasedwa. In the decades of 1959-1968, 1969-1978 and 1979-1988, respectively 20, 30 and 200 bigha of forest was cleared in Bhasedwa.

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| TABLE 10 | Ethno-History of Floods in Devgaun Year Event 1969 10 kattha of land affected by bank cutting. Floods inundated ward numbers 1, 3 and 4. Flood waters also brought clayey loam increasing productivity.

1970 Ward numbers 2, 5 and 6 were inundated.

1990 Water from Bhaluwai and Piruda rivers inundated the village. Water released in the Gandak canal exacerbated the problem because cross drainage structures have insufficient water way. The settlement of ward number 7 and 8 were affected and the crops destroyed.

1996 The river washed two spurs in ward number 1 displacing 5 houses of Yadav Gaon. Those displaced live close to the Hulaki Sadak.

1998 All settlements of ward numbers 1, 2, 7 and 8 and the cropped areas were affected. In ward number 1, four bighas of land was destroyed by bank cutting while 10 households were displaced. They bought land in Sarawal VDC. Flood in Pidruda River resulted bank cutting in ward number 8 and washed away a Muslim graveyard (5 bigha of land). Sand deposition affected eight bigha of land In ward number 4.

2003 Floods inundated settlements of ward numbers 1, 7, 8 and all farmlands. Parts of ward number 9 was inundated. All crops destroyed. The productivity of land is decreasing.

| FIGURE 8 | Flood hazard map of Devgaun

Bank cutting N 1 Patkhauli Gravel road

Earthern road

Sand deposition Settlement 4 Devgaun

Pond Partially inundated area, settlement, agriculture land (for 2-4 days) Fulbariya 5

Inundated area 2 FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS 3 6 Legend Piruda River Partially inunadated area, settlements, agriculture land Bhaluhi River Inundated area Mahuhawa Sand deposition Barari Jharahi Safe area River 7 Bank cutting Bank cutting 8

River boundary Bank cutting Area totally inundated Gandak canal Gravel road Bank cutting Earthern road Pond Gandak canal Settlement VDC boundary Tree Piparihiya Ward boundary plantation 9 Tree plantation Bank cutting Safe area

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| TABLE 11 | Ethno-History of Floods in Rampur Khadauna BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Year Event 1961 Early records of inundation in the village date back to this year. All houses of ward number 9 along with agriculture lands were under water. However, the flood was not devastating. It started receding after 10-12 hours. The flood deposited clayey loam over the fields. This resulted in a harvest boom for crops such as grams, lentils, peas and early paddy. The nature of flooding changed in the later years. 1979 Gandak Irrigation Canal was constructed during 1979-80. However, the area received irrigation only after 1984. The main canal runs perpendicular to the ground slope. Cross drainage structures were designed and implemented with insufficient water ways. This causes flooding in the settlements of ward numbers 7, 8 and 9. All crops in the fields were lost. Paddy seed had to be sown repeatedly. In some areas inundation was minor and paddy harvest was better. 1982 Two persons died in floods. The Dhanewa River gradually became larger and joined the Jharahi resulting a flooding. The settlements of ward 8 and 9 and all crops were submerged for 4 days. The Jharahi River changed course in 1961 after Sugauli Dam was constructed at Haripur VDC. Ward 1 and 2 were affected by bank cutting and inundation. 1990 The widening of Dhanewa River resulted in inundation of houses of ward numbers 7, 8 and 9 and all crops for 4-5 days. Gandak canal receives no water when required but in the monsoon excess water was released in the canal exacerbating flooding. 1991 Flood caused death of one person. Bank cutting by Dhanewa and Jharahi rivers was severe. No action was taken. Whenever there was rain in the northern catchment, people realised that flood will come after 1 or 2 days. 1996 Communities of ward numbers 1, 7, 8 and 9 are temporarily displaced. People took shelter at the school and returned to their homes only after water receded. The confluence of two rivers changed and altered the flooding pattern. The bed level also increased. Since river bed was higher than the fields, the flood water easily found its way into the fields. People from ward number 1 left their homes to live temporarily in ward numbers 3 and 4. 1998 The VDC was submerged. Crops in 1,000 bigha were destroyed. 2000 July floods inundated houses of ward numbers 7, 8 and 9. People along with their belongings and cattle moved to safer places at higher grounds. Some went to live with their relatives. About 1,100 bigha of agriculture land was inundated. 2003-2005 Flooding was recurrent. People used boats to commute when the village was inundated.

| FIGURE 9 | Flood hazard map of Rampur Khadauna Area moderately affected N Gadauri Naukatti

Pokhari tole Gadauri Pusauli Spurs

Planted trees Gujar tole Kurthawal Area partially inundated

Kurthawal Bank cutting Jhiganhawa Khadauna Dhanewa River Jharahi River Madhawaliya

Madhawaliya

Area completely inundated Nauodihawa Old course New course for Jharahi River Gandak canal

Legend

Area completely inundated Gandak canal River Mosque VDC building Area partially inundated Settlement Planted trees Pond Spurs

Area moderately affected Area under bank cutting Drain School Road

Ward boundary VDC boundary

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| TABLE 12 | Ethno-History of Floods in Bhasedwa Year Event 1937 A September flood destroyed paddy before it was harvested. About 200 bigha of land was destroyed due to inundation and sand-casting. It damaged the paddy crop. However, the village was not damaged. 1965 Before paddy could be harvested floods buried more than 1,000 bigha of land under sand. The settlement was unharmed. 1970 Bank cutting washed away the forest of ward number 1. In other wards, sand deposition affected around 100 bigha of land. The land could not be made arable for long time. 1975 Sand deposition destroyed 200 bigha of land. Parts of forest and local pastures were also lost. 1978 Flood destroyed crops of 50 bigha. It also affected 50 households of Dholbaja tole. The population of ward number 5 was resettled by clearing forest near Hanumangad of the same ward. No effort was made to prevent bank cutting. 1985 Floods continue to destroy large tracts of land. The problem became recurrent after this year. Farmed land, pasture and orchards were lost. Between 1985 and 1991 around 100 bigha of land was lost due to bank cutting. No efforts were made to minimise the losses. In 1991 DDC and District Irrigation Office (DIO) supported construction of spurs made of bamboo piles. Sand bags were also placed. But the problem continued. 1993 An unprecedented flood occurred in the early hours (4:00 am) of 21 July. As it was time to start herding cattle to pastures some people were already awake. They warned the rest of the villagers providing much lead time for people to reach higher grounds. There was no loss of life. The entire village was under water. Bank cutting was rapid. 100 households belonging to ward number 6 (Chamar Tole) were displaced and went to live in a neighboring VDC. The poorer people took shelter at their relatives’ homes. Some struggled to salvage their belongings by lighting petro-max at night. Sand deposition destroyed around 100 bigha of land. On August 10 another flood occurred. Its ferocity was lower than that of the July 21 flood but the flood led to widespread, rapid and devastating bank cutting. Within an hour, 262 feet of bank eroded. 1995-2003 Bank cutting was worse than in 1993. The flood of August 13, 1995 took 50 feet land. Floods of August 16, 17 and 18, 1997 led to bank cutting of 10 bigha of cultivated land. This flood washed away road linking the village to the north. The floods of July 21 and 25, 1998 displaced 25 households of Pokhara tole. Families moved at night. After the flood, more than 150 households have migrated and the trend continued until 2003. Everyone living in the purano basti of Bhasedwa migrated elsewhere. 2004 This flood was devastating compared to 1993 floods. The floods of 1993 had pushed an entire settlement to naya basti. The 2004 floods did not spare this basti - the settlement and surrounding fields were inundated. All dalits of ward number 2 and 3 were displaced. They started living in camps set up at Bhasedwa Primary school. The floods damaged the canal system of Bagmati Irrigation Project (BIP). A 250 meter long embankment and a spur built by BIP had not been complete as the construction began late. The embankment congested flow which became a serious hazard. The entire embankment including the spur was washed away. The soil used for building embankment and spur was spread over 100 bigha of land. Farmers still have not succeeded in recovering the land today. 2005 BIP constructed a 400 meter long embankment and a spur. This initiative has saved land behind the embankment. However, land areas both upstream and downstream of embankment face increased inundation and sediment deposition.

| FIGURE 10 | Flood hazard map of Bhasedwa FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS

N Canal

Embankment Spur

Agriculture land

Area under bank cutting Legend Canal Gravelled motorway Area under cutting Road Area under bank New settlement Area converted cutting and inundation Area under bank cutting to river bed due Previous Agriculture land to bank cutting settlements Spur Area under cutting Embankment Area previously affected by Spurs bank cutting VDC boundary Forest cam public pasture Lalbakaiya River Sand bank Thalweg Previons settlements

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| TABLE 13 | Ethno-History of Floods in Brahmapuri BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Year Event 1954 A major flood resulted in sediment deposition over the lands. Entire paddy crop was lost. Farm land looked like sand banks and could not be farmed for subsequent 7 years. During this period people faced food shortage. The river also brought tree trunks and deposited them in the fields. Some people collected the timber, sold them and made their living. People built resting places on stilts and lived on it for many days. Cooking was done on machan. Some families stacked one bed over the others to keep them dry. During the 7 year food shortage period, the richer households bought food from local and regional markets while the poor households migrated to India and neighbouring village in search of menial jobs. The remitance money they earned helped sustenance. 1960 Local initiatives to construct an irrigation system by damming Bagmati began. This was done to rejuvenate the land affected by sand deposition. The canal system irrigated 17 % of the land lying east of the village. The efforts to irrigate western areas resulted in the flooding of the village. In anguish people destroyed the dam and the initiative came to an end. 1961 Floods deposited silty-loam over areas affected by sand deposition in 1960 floods. Bagmati River flowed in two channels east and west of Brahmapuri. The westward channel accomodated the major flow while the eastward channel looked like a small irrigation canal. The westward channel of the river continuously impacted the Indian railway line in Bihar. 1966 The Indian Railway diverted flow of Bagmati from the western channel to eastern channel with the objective of protecting the railway lines. To that end wooden piles were driven and spurs were constructed in the western channel. Indian Railway provided compensation to farmers who owned land adjacent to the eastern channel. The farmers initially did not agree but later realised that river was gradually moving towards the eastern channel across the border. They agreed to be compensated. 1973 Bank cutting was a major problem after the river began flowing along the eastern channel. 1978 Nun toli of ward number 9 was displaced. 1993 Unprecedented flood occurs in the early morning (at 4:00 am) of July. In the village, the depth of flowing water was 5 feet. Villages as far as Barhathwa were inundated. The flood also washed an elephant. People could not move from the village in the dark because the entire village was inundated. People stacked beds, climbed roof, trees or to some raised place for safety. One boy was washed away. A woman lost both her sons along with her goats and oxen. Stored food became wet. People could not cook food even after the flood water receded. The houses were filled with muck for around 3-4 days. Relief agencies arrived only after the flood receded. People had to travel to Gaur to receive the relief materials because roads were damaged. Both rich and poor were equally affected as the stored grains had been damaged. Relief distribution was available continuously for three months which helped people to get back to their lives. All the households in ward number 8 were displaced. About 70 bigha of land was affected by sand deposit. 1998 Between 1998 and 2002, households of ward numbers 2, 6 and 7 continued to be displaced. The high school in Brahmapuri was washed away by the flood of 2002. The school did not reopen for almost one year. 2003 The lower section of Bagmati was embanked and spurs were constructed with assistance from the Government of India. This intervention has minimised bank cutting and flooding. However, Gaur municipality continued to be inundated.

| FIGURE 11 | Flood hazard map of Brahmapuri Thalweg N

Bagmati River

Bagmati River NEPAL Sand bank Spur

Settlement Thatch growing areas cum public pasture

Road Settlement

VDC boundary Border Agriculture land Embankment

Inundated agriculture land

INDIA (Bihar) VDC boundary

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Vulnerability Assessment © A Pokhrel

One of the major focuses of the study was assessing the extent of Inadequate drainage capacity results in vulnerability. The theoretical aspects of failure of culverts. vulnerability are discussed in chapter 4 and were used to define the parameters

| TABLE 14 | Vulnerability Ranking in this assessment. Published literature, Rank Vulnerability type Magnitude For 25 parameters reports and documents were reviewed to V Severe 4.1 – 5 101-125 select the parameters and several IV High 3.1 – 4 76-100 rounds of discussions were held with III Moderate 2.1 – 3 51-75 experts and knowledgeable persons. A II Vulnerable 1.1 – 2 26-50 checklist consisting of 25 parameters I Low 1 and below 25 and below was prepared and discussed among the team members and the local | TABLE 15 | Parameters of Vulnerability communities. The components were as Parameters Indicators follows: a. physical, b. social, c. gender- I Physical 1 Frequency of flood related d. economic, e. access to 2 Effects of flood 3 Bank cutting/sand casting communication, f. access to resources FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS 4 Damage to structures and g. psychological (Table 15). The 5 Effect of inundation – pollution parameters were weighted as shown in 6 Effect of inundation - on mobility Table 14. 7 House located along the banks 8 House located next to embankments 9 House located in the direction of flow The tool thus developed was 10 Flood damaged - land types administered to all households in the II Social 11 Access to education 12 Head of household four VDCs. Care was taken to ensure 13 Mobility-less or no-mobility that households in each of the hazard III Economic 14 Food sufficiency sites identified above (See Figures 8,9,10 15 Land holding 16 House types and 11) were included. 17 Source of income 18 Food security IV Access to resources 19 Access to water, sanitation and health institutions 20 Access to forests 21 Access to service centres V Communication 22 Communication VI Gender Perspective 23 Group formation and funds collection 24 Women participation in SHGs VII Psychological 25 Psychological

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| TABLE 16 | Aggregate and Ward Wise Vulnerability Assessment BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Devgaun Rampur Khadauna Bhasedhawa Brahmapuri Ward no. SV HV Rest Total SV HV Rest Total SV HV Rest Total SV HV Rest Total 1 0 55 58 113 0 35 29 64 0 26 18 44 0 24 5 29 2 0 12 79 91 0 44 22 66 0 43 17 60 0 17 29 46 3 0 27 52 79 0 33 5 38 1 156 39 196 23 66 7 96 4 0 4 50 54 0 19 47 66 1 115 7 123 0 103 11 114 5 0 11 63 74 4 98 9 111 1 103 14 118 11 62 0 73 6 0 25 59 84 0 57 19 76 0 202 44 246 2 99 5 106 7 0 65 63 128 0 60 29 89 0 25 2 27 0 39 6 45 8 0 68 59 127 0 61 13 74 0 65 1 66 1 84 1 86 9 1 49 45 95 0 35 40 75 0 32 23 55 0 32 0 32 Total 1 316 528 845 4 442 213 659 3 767 165 935 37 526 64 627 Percentage 0 37 62.5 100 1 67 32 100 0.3 82 17.7 100 6 84 10 100

Notes: 45 Households of all 4 VDCs fall in severely vulnerable class (1.4 per cent), 2051 households of all 4 VDCs fall in highly vulnerable class (67.0 %), 970 households of all 4 VDCs fall in rest other classes (31.6 %). (The rest classes include moderately vulnerable, vulnerable and low vulnerable).

Nature of Vulnerability | TABLE 17 | VDC-Wise Vulnerability According to the Dis-aggregated Parameters Component with VDC wise households in different vulnerability class Ward-wise results are presented in magnitude of vulnerability Devgaun Rampur Khadauna Bhasedhawa Brahmapuri Table 16. These include households in Physical Severe - 57 (9) 16 (2) 65 (10) the severely and highly vulnerable High 100 (12) 376 (57) 637 (68) 336 (54) categories. Overall, 37%, 68%, 83% and Moderate to low 745 (88) 226 (34) 282 (30) 226 (36) 90 % of the populations in Devgaun, Total 845 659 935 627 Social Rampur Khadauna, Bhasedhawa and Severe 9 (1) 3 (0.5) 4 (0.4) 5 (1) Brahmapuri respectively are in the High 180 (21) 101 (15) 158 (17) 104 (17) highly vulnerable category. Moderate to low 656 (78) 555 (84.5) 773(83) 518 (82) Total 845 659 935 627 Economic In all VDCs, poor access to information Severe 207 (25) 220 (33) 447 (48) 482 (77) about policies, relief and climate issues High 291 (34) 233 (36) 341 (36) 87 (14) Moderate to low 347 (41) 206 (31) 147 (16) 58 (9) emerged as the factors contributing most Total 845 659 935 627 to vulnerability. There are no Access to resources mechanisms for providing weather- Severe 198 (23) 205 (31) 122 (13) 176 (28) High 517 (61) 296 (45) 763 (82) 412 (66) related information or early warnings at Moderate to low 130 (16) 158 (24) 50 (5) 39 (6) the local level in any VDC. National Total 845 659 935 627 radio and TVs do broadcast information Access to communication Severe 474 (56) 423 (64) 599 (64) 375 (60) on the daily temperatures and rainfall High 6 (1) 1 (0) - - recorded at selected stations, but people Moderate to low 365 (43) 235 (36) 336 (36) 252(40) Total 845 659 935 627 rely on local indicators such as dark Gender perspective clouds to discern if it is likely to rain. Severe 524 (62) 186 (28) 516 (55) 489 (78) The information on vulnerability High 19 (2) 87 (13) 46 (5) 19 (3) Moderate to low 302 (36) 386 (59) 373 (40) 119 (19) collected was shared with the Total 845 659 935 627 representatives of the VDCs and used to Psychological formulate pilot adaptive measures. Severe - - - 2 (0.3) High 2 (0.3) 1 (0) - 1 (0.2) Another factor was the gender Moderate to low 843 (99.7) 658 (100) 935 (100) 624 (99.5) imbalance. Total 845 659 935 627

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The major challenge during the SLDs was Shared Learning Dialogue to estimate the extent of property lost due to floods in the past as people tended to exaggerate because they believed support (SLD) agencies would not assist better off people. Organisations such as the Agricultural Department and the Poverty Alleviation Fund have conducted meetings and surveys in the past and some organisations even helped form groups, but people complained that there A total of seven SLDs with flood- were no tangible benefits to the village affected persons and key informants (KI) and that work was limited mostly to were carried out at each VDC. An attempt collecting names and other information. was made to include equal numbers of People suspect that money is allocated by men and women in each SLD, but this agencies but lost before it reaches the was not always possible. To ensure that village level. The community repeatedly women were represented in SLDs, local asked us what programmes would follow SLD is a useful partners were asked to visit villages and the SLDs and surveys. iterative tool of request women representatives to actively engagement. participate. The community suggested the Interacting with women was difficult even timing and duration of the meetings. All when women facilitated the discussions. proceedings were recorded so that the mix This was especially so when they of Bhojpuri/Maithili and Nepali attempted to find out the difficulties faced languages used in the discussion could be by pregnant and menstruating women transcribed in Kathmandu and and new and lactating mothers during summaries prepared in English. times of floods. Villagers were unwilling Partnership with locally-based NGOs to reveal their experiences even to female was helpful in conducting the SLDs. community workers. The lack of toilets and the inability to commute were

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS A separate national-level SLD was also mentioned as major problems. held. The discussions were recorded and summaries produced. Later SLDs in the Bank-cutting is a major hazard as it does VDCs were not recorded because the not spare even well-off landowners. Some security situation in the Nepal Tarai landowners have lost all their assets in deteriorated. The facilitators took notes past floods. They lamented that their during the discussions which were lineage would die out because no one compiled to produce synopses. The would want to marry into their families. findings from SLDs, hazard maps, vulnerability mapping and PRAs carried Difficulties were encountered while out at the ward level contributed to the carrying out SLDs. People wanted to know conceptualisation of village-level the political affiliation of the facilitators. adaptation action plans for all four VDCs. They would ask, ‘Which political party do Past experiences from local organisations you work for?’ and complain that it is very and other I/NGOs such as Oxfam GB, the hard to touch base with their political Nepal Red Cross Society, and the Lutheran leaders. People also enquired about the World Service were also referred to. benefits they would get from the study.

148 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ FLOOD DISASTER IMPACTS AND RESPONSES IN NEPAL TARAI’S MARGINALISED BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER BOX 1 National SLD

A one-day national SLD on Flood Disaster Risk Reduction was organised in Kathmandu on 6 November, 2006 after several rounds of local-level SLDs were held. The objective was to discuss approaches that organisations in Nepal take in order to reduce flood disaster risk and to share perceptions from field. The meeting aimed to initiate discussions on the link between disaster risk mitigation and long-term development while sharing by sharing experiences. Representatives from organisations involved in water management and disaster prevention, NGOs, INGOs and the media participated in the SLD. The discussion focused on perceptions of hazard and organisational activities as well as on adaptation approaches to risk mitigation. Both climate-related and non-climate-induced disasters were discussed. Some of the key issues identified during the national SLD were as follows: • Embankments have both positive and negative roles. • Opportunities must be communicated to the local level, and awareness about disaster risk mitigation increased. • The problems faced by rural residents do not get priority in the media. • The National Disaster Mitigation Act of 1982 needs to be revised to incorporate preparedness, resettlement and rehabilitation aspects of disaster victims. • Though awareness has increased people do not incorporate preventive measures such as retrofitting elements while building homes. • Highway construction is a major cause of increased landslides. • Communities need to be made aware of the adverse impact of roads and embankments. • Financial measures such as insurance and micro credit are useful tool in disaster risk reduction. • Disaster mitigation needs to be integrated into regular development programme such as water supply, sanitation and irrigation. • Spillage of faeces from pit latrines is a hazard during flood. • The lack comprehensive policy about issues of compensation, insurance and livelihood debilitates disaster risk reductions efforts. • Communities seek compensation for properties lost due to flooding and submergence but laws are not very clear on this count. • The red mark the Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention (DWIDP) uses to delineate the extent of vulnerability on their maps drives land prices down. Many communities do not favour such a practice.

© A Pokhrel

Local level share learning dialouge. 149 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

BOX 2 Local SLDs

The participants of local SLDs involved representatives of the credit groups in Bramhapuri, Rampur Khadauna and four VDCs, Bramhapuri, Bhasedwa, Rampur Khadauna and Devgaun. Devgaon VDCs. During the SLDs participants discussed on • All of the villages have road system and access to flooding, the physical social characteristics of the region communication such as CDMA. They listen to FM radio including changes in flow condition and impact of structures. services. • The government has made little effort to mitigate flood The Bagmati and the Lal Bakaiya River systems impacts in the villages. The communities seek support Both rivers are sources of hazard in the monsoon. The from government departments but do not know whom rainfall in its hilly catchment is high and some pockets get they should approach. cloudbursts. The result is immediate flooding. The 1993 flood was one such event. The lower region of Rautahat District is • None of the VDCs have government office, health post, affected by embankments and other structures that constraint sub-heath post, veterinary or agriculture service center. drainage causing prolonged inundation. Villages have primary schools. • Floods bring alluvial soil that improves agriculture and Though smaller than the Bagmati, the Lal Bakaiya is a flashy timber, which can be used as fuel. and turbulent river. Its head catchment is situated between • Flooding also destroys paddy, wheat and potatoes. the Chure and the Mahabharat ranges and the area receives high rainfall. The overland flow is collected and discharged • Masur, parwal, watermelon, aalas and aluwa are planted through the narrow Chure gorge that travels with high on land covered with mix of sand and clay. velocity carrying sediment and debris load. This river causes • The Nepal Gandak Canal passes through Rampur bank cutting and much sand deposition. Khadauna and Devgaun but the supply of water for irrigation is unreliable. The Rohini River system The flooding of mainly the Jharahi and Dhanewa rivers affect • Groundwater table in Devgaun is between 60 and 70 Rampur Khadauna and Devgaon. Embankments and canals meters deep and is difficult to tap for irrigation. cause drainage congestion exacerbating the effects. The • Ram Gram, Butwal and Narayanghat in Nepal and the rising level of the river beds is another threat. towns across the border in Uttar Pradesh are potential markets for the agriculture produce of Rampur Khadauna The following issues were identified and Devgaun. Chandranigahapur and Gaur in Nepal and • Climate is changing due to the excessive use of natural Baraganiya in Bihar are potential markets for farmers of resources, environmental degradation and human Brahmapuri and Bhasedwa. activities. • Embankments built along the banks of the Bagmati, • There is no early warning system. People use their Lalbakaiya, Jharahi, Dhanewa and Bhalui rivers senses to feel the direction and movement of the air to occasionally breach. Bank-cutting is common. predict possible rainfall and consequential flooding. A • The poor and so-called low-caste families are most timely forecast could minimise the impact of flooding and seriously affected by floods. help locals take preparedness activities. • Agricultural production is decreasing and poverty increasing. FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS • Flooding usually occurs at night when every one is The poor get displaced each year and become landless. asleep. • In the aftermath of floods epidemics are common. There • Floods come even if it does not rain locally. is no organised response to alleviate the spread of • Inundation lasts from a few hours to a few weeks diseases. Mechanism to provide medical support is very depending upon the volume of rainfall. poor. • During floods, the members of the communities help • Groundwater contamination due to arsenic is high in both each other without any discrimination based on religion, Rauthaut and Nawalparasi districts. People need to be caste or political ideology. provided with support to mitigate biological and arsenic • In all villages flooding affects women more than men. contamination of water. • Embankments and check dams can minimise flood • Flat roofs on the houses would help save household effects. assets. • In Bramhapuri the community use a local school building • Young males migrate to cities in India, Kathmandu and as a shelter during floods. In Rampur Khadauna, Oxfam abroad seeking employment. They send remittances GB has provided two boats to be used for rescue purpose. home. • Bamboo and other trees on the river banks help • The government of Nepal does not subsidise fertilisers for minimise bank-cutting. farmers, who rely on Indian markets for their purchase. This causes huge difference of the produce. • Local communities have organised to form saving and

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Using visual and audio recording to BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER Adaptation capture nuances of the dialogues was useful though it required the study team to put in additional time, resources and Strategies Identified commitment. Others researchers and facilitators need to be made aware of the value of recording, but caution is necessary In the course of the SLDs the following while recording in conflict environments. measures to support adaptation were identified: Indeed, in all cases, the prior approval of the community has to be sought. „ Establishment of a simple early warning system to communicate and forecast the Since the CVA method used is static, it is weather and flood dated information. difficult to capture dynamic vulnerability. „ Providing information about rainfall is Furthermore, major questions exist important because it triggers all floods. regarding how CVA can be incorporated „ Enhancing understanding concerning the into operational disaster risk reduction influence of human interventions on programmes. One way could be to flooding. provide a picture of the changing context „ Improving the existing canal to enhance of vulnerability by conducting CVAs at the reliability of irrigation. different times before and following „ Making arrangement for boats to evacuate floods. The study team intends to use this villagers. approach after the monsoon season of „ Providing support to improve homes and 2007. We hope it will help capture evacuation shelters. differences and thereby provide a basis „ Introducing appropriate measures to for assessing the relevance and feasibility make use of groundwater in income- of the method. generating activities. „ Retaining and stabilising rivers banks. Continuing dialogue with a community „ Insuring livestock and grains. through SLDs is clearly a useful „ Training and building the capacity of local approach. It provides a realistic communities. understanding of the concerns of the „ Providing of sanitation and drinking water community and helps design support facilities during floods. measures which build local capacity for „ Supporting self-help-groups (SHG) adaptation. In other words, it can help „ Providing skill training for pursuing those affected by flood disaster to identify alternative livelihoods. effective responses, save assets, avoid „ Establishing fodder banks for livestock. diseases, and rebuild livelihoods. Many „ Providing access to improved seeds for development programmes have aimed to agriculture. achieve such outcomes but are hamstrung „ Improving access to fertilisers and other because they focus on the conventional inputs. top-down methods. Locating a bottom-up „ Preparing VDC-level plan for adaptation. programme like ours within the larger „ Improving drainage. framework, in contrast, can help begin the „ Using flood-damaged river banks and flood process of engaging with the root causes plains for economic benefit. of vulnerability while devising practical „ Mitigation of arsenic and bacteriological measures to respond to the immediate contamination in drinking water. needs of achieving improved security „ Conducting community forestry activities. from flooding. „ Establishing information centres. 151 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

We can argue that flood disaster risk Conclusions reduction needs to undergo a paradigm shift if it is to find salience in the changing social and physical context. For mitigating flood damage, structural or engineering approaches, despite their limitations, continue to get preference over softer methods. The concerns of affected individuals, families and communities have not been This study has provided a broad systematically woven into this approach overview of the impact of flood disasters to policy making. Governmental policies on four VDCs situated in the Nepal Tarai have not helped build resilience to floods along two trans-boundary rivers. The or the ability to cope with their effects. VDCs are located in the south of Nepal Institutional dysfunction is widespread: contiguous to the plains of Uttar Pradesh state agencies fail to innovate and make and Bihar and are typical of many their responses to flood disasters communities living in the Nepal Tarai. effective. Poor drainage and waterlogging A more logical are widespread and their impact on response to mitigating The study has shown that sustained communities is serious. flood disasters is to monsoon rains and cloudbursts in river catchments are the main trigger of The primary reason for flooding is high ensure unhindered flooding in Nepal. In many cases, rainfall during the monsoon combined drainage. infrastructure constructed to improve with interventions that block drainage. living conditions and provide security While the rainfall sustains region’s against floods has, however, actually agriculture, when the land becomes added to the misery of VDC residents by totally saturated, excess overland slowing drainage and increasing the flooding that river channels cannot extent of inundation. The impact of accommodate spills onto the land flooding is an outcome of both social and adjoining river banks causing prolonged

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS economic factors as well as political and inundation, loss of crops and land, and historical processes. Gender inequity other damage. A logical response to further accentuates vulnerability. mitigating flood disasters is to ensure Although we did examine this aspect in that there is unhindered drainage of detail, the ongoing turmoil and violence floodwater into rivers and to reduce in the Nepal Tarai is an additional vulnerability. Hydro-meteorology, debilitating factor. Very little real-time disasters as opportunities and adaptive information is available about any given responses are issues worth highlighting. flood situation as the mobility of the people is limited due to inundated roads, frequent road blocks due to bandh Hydro-meteorology (political action of closing roads) and poor security. The remoteness of the area Achieving effective disaster risk adds to the problem. It is likely that reduction requires developing a better stories of human misery will abound in understanding of the study region’s the study villages and elsewhere after the hydro-meteorological character. The 2007 monsoon rains receded and the collection, collation and dissemination of affected regions are more accessible. data on rainfall, river flow, sediment-load

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and geomorphology are essential. To BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

capture the variability exhibited by © A Dixit micro-climates, we need more stations to monitor rainfall and other climatic parameters in the Tarai and mountainous regions. The data from such stations can help improve our understanding of the climatic conditions of the region. They will also be useful for forecasting and thus enabling preparedness for minimising flooding provided that the data they collect can be disseminated, interpreted Stream unable to flow through existing culvert is flowing along Nepal’s and analysed in time. Particularly in east-west highway in Bardiya. fields such as disaster mitigation where responses depend on a combination of basic scientific and wide social factors, particular geographical area, where it is critical that society has the capacity interaction among natural, economic, to analyse data and identify their needs social, and developmental activities The links between and alternatives. result in a particular level of impact livelihood strategies during flood events. Such an and the environment understanding would help those are exposed in the Disasters as Opportunities concerned identify new avenues for action. Though such window of aftermath of a disaster. Though they are part and parcel of the opportunity may not always catalyse region, flood hazards have disruptive change or provide incentive for putting effects on societies and communities. in place a more proactive approach to One flood disaster makes the poor more disaster risk, they do lay bare the inner vulnerable to the next and, in weakness of a society, which can be consequence, converts a single disaster used as a forensic opportunity to into a series of disasters. Flood hazards examine the existing interrelationship. become social disasters as victims are Their usefulness to policy process may created by economic and social not be direct but cannot be differences. Yet, disaster can be used as underestimated. an avenue to create new mechanisms to enable vulnerable groups and those One area to focus on is on repeatedly affected by hazards to reduce understanding how livelihoods are their vulnerability. To that end, affected, readjusted or rebuilt in a post- strategies should be formulated in such disaster situation. Changes in patterns a way that they strive to change the and strategies adopted for making a pattern of relationships and livelihood need to be examined. The institutional arrangements that links between livelihood strategies and exacerbate vulnerability to floods or any the environment are exposed in the other natural hazard. aftermath of a disaster. Mitigation strategies must suit social and A disaster can also be used as an ecological environments and help build opportunity by planners and scientists livelihoods. The majority of the affected to understand the processes within a people in the four VDCs studied are

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disadvantaged by their location and Adaptive Approach their actual hardships often go unheard when mitigation strategies are planned. Practical methods for minimising the By ensuring that space is created for negative social impacts of floods can their voices to be heard, their relative often be found by building on the isolation can be ended. The hardships of actions that families already take and by those hit by a disaster and the support designing interventions which can they see as necessary should be the accommodate changing situations. Such prime concern when mitigation interventions need to address the strategies are formulated. challenges that a flood hazard poses as well as its impacts. In the case of floods, Another aspect of disaster risk reduction for example, local people often seek involves analysing the driving forces safety from rising floodwater by moving that have framed national policy to higher ground, planting flood- regarding disaster mitigation and how resistant or early ripening variety crops, that policy has changed over time. and stockpiling some food and Questions regarding how policy emergency supplies including basic translates into procedures in the field medicines, though such examples are How policy translates and how it matches (or does not match) very few. Poor access to basic drinking into procedures in the the requirements of the affected people water, sanitation, basic health services field is important. require much deeper analysis. The and food stuff, however, continue be a answers to these questions can be useful major problem for the millions in the execution of institutional marooned. It is clear that these services innovations. must be made available, but the how question remains unanswered. We need FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS

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to continue institutional innovations to challenge for the community of civil BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER help improve access to safe drinking engineers in South Asia; national water during floods. engineering codes will need revision and new insights incorporated in water Strategies that assist people in education stream. We need to focus on developing alternative and less the formulation and implementation of vulnerable livelihoods and reducing appropriate laws and on compliance their susceptibility to flood hazards may with municipal codes. This is an arena be a more effective response than for continued thinking and focusing exclusively on structural investigation. Improving preventive measures to control floods. An health care facilities and diversifying appropriate strategy might be, as people livelihoods are other challenges. These have traditionally done, to build houses are elements of governance which need on stilts or on high points (‘islands’) for to evolve in any given geographical, respite during flooding. Such an social and political context. approach would allow flood water to drain quickly and thus remain standing for a shorter period; it also would not In the End interfere with the beneficial deposition of Improving preventive fertile silt on agricultural land. Flood hazards are widespread and have health care facilities Community forestry activities can help different negative impacts on different and educational promoting biological shield as buffer communities and households. During institutions and zones along the flood plains. the monsoon in South Asia large-scale inundation causes hardship to people diversifying livelihoods A control-focused approach based on in the plains, while landslides, mud and can build adaptive embankment building, in contrast, debris flow affect people the hills. capacity. separates rivers from their flood plains Governments of South Asian nations and nullifies the benefit of flood need to focus on approaches that are spreading. Overall, approaches that rooted in the nature of the problems, attempt to reduce the vulnerability of whether rural or urban areas. People in people to flood hazards by enhancing capacity and by building on existing mitigation actions may be more effective. Roads and transportation help mobility but poorly designed bridges An added local benefit is that people can can constrain drainage and exacerbate flooding. implement these measures in their © A. Pokhrel localities without major institutional restructuring. Some strategies are already being employed while others were identified in course of the study.

In the long term, building transport and informational infrastructures that do not impede drainage may prove to be effective in mitigating flood disasters. It is worth repeating that roads must be designed so they do not hinder drainage. Managing drainage is a

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rural areas face disadvantages governance which focuses on stemming from the lack of educational empowering communities to build their and basic heath services, job insecurity, assets and resilience. Such initiatives poorly diversified livelihoods, need to be part of a societal process in underemployment and unemployment. which there is space for a regulatory In addition, prevailing policies often hierarchic state, an innovative discriminate against women and deny individualistic market and cautionary economically and socially social auditors to remain in a creative disadvantaged communities access and balance. entitlement to assets. The market tends to take advantage of people rather than The implementation of this study the other way around; marginalised coincided with one of the most difficult farmers often cannot negotiate good and tumultuous period in Nepal history, bargains. An effective response to flood as the country moves towards social and disaster mitigation calls for the creation political restructuring. As expected, of pro-poor policy regimes and the regional groups and other interests are allocation of resources to vulnerable being expressed but have yet to be groups. The devolution of political resolved through political negotiations. The government must power can make measures for Also Nepal’s Tarai region is in a state of facilitate the creation of minimising the impacts of flooding turmoil. One manifestation of the a level playing field for more effective. confusion has been violence. In fact, Rautahat District saw one of worst unbiased regulation, The government must facilitate the examples of carnage in Nepal’s history as monitoring and creation of a level playing field through thirty persons were killed in a single facilitation. unbiased regulation, monitoring and event of political violence. Despite the facilitation. In its turn, the market must sense of insecurity, the presence of innovate in order to create asset- locally-based groups enabled the study to building opportunities. Uncontested, go ahead. both the government and market show tendencies towards centralisation and Needless to say the capacity to respond to

FLOOD DISASTER AND RESPONSESFLOOD IMPACTS TARAI’S IN NEPAL MARGINALISED BASINS rapaciousness. Egalitarian social the impacts of change, including those auditors, using critical rationality, must induced by climate change, is essential. provide a balance. When all three social Referring to the Himalayan region, the solidarities are balanced, the terrain will fourth IPCC (2007) report has suggested be in a creative tension, thereby making that “heavy precipitation events, which an effective response to flood disaster are very likely to increase in frequency, mitigation possible. will augment flood risk.” The communities in the lower Bagmati and In the plains of the Himalaya-Ganga Rohini regions face such a risk. This human settlement has evolved adapting study has enabled us to better understand to flood and low flow conditions in the nature of vulnerability of the rivers. The notion of totally controlling communities to such a risk and how their flooding is neither possible nor ability to adapt could be enhanced and desirable. Flood damage mitigation the risks minimised as Nepal and Nepali approaches need to begin by ensuring societies continue to undergo drainage and minimising flood risks at transformative change. The exact way in local levels. This reorientation needs to which this understanding will contribute be supported by a framework of to policy-making is an issue for the future.

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Bibliography BASINS MARGINALISED NEPAL TARAI’S IN IMPACTSFLOOD RESPONSES AND DISASTER

Ahmed I. (1999) Living with Floods: An Exercise in Alternative, The University Press Limited, Dhaka. Bandhyopadhya, J. (1999) Need for a realistic view, Seminar pp. 52-61. BDPF, Duryog Nivaran and BUET (1995) May 4-6 Regional Cooperation in Flood Warning; Report of the Workshop organized by Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness Forum (BDPF), Duryog Nivaran and Department of Water Resources Engineering of the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET); Dhaka. DPTC (1993) Annual Disaster Review, Water Induced Disaster Prevention Technical Centre, Lalitpur, Nepal. DWIDP (2005) Final Report on preparation of Water-Induced Hazard Maps of The Bagmati River Basin, December, Kathmandu. Gyawali, D. and Dixit, A. (1994) The Himalaya Ganga: Contending with Inter-linkages in a Complex System: Water Nepal, 4(1): 1-6. Hagen, T. (1998) Nepal the Kingdom in the Himalaya, Himal Books, Lalitpur Nepal. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2 (2007), Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policy Makers. MoWR (1993) Report on Floods in Bagmati River Basin July 19-21, 1993, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu. Moench, M. and Dixit, A. (eds.) (2004) Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience, Adaptive Strategies for Responding to Floods and Droughts in South Asia, June, The Institute for Social and Environmental Transition, International, Boulder, Colorado, USA and the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition, Nepal. Nishat, A., Reazauddin M., Amin, R., and Khan, A. R. (eds.) (2000) The 1998 floods Impact on Environment, Department of Environment and IUCN Bangladesh, Dhaka x+269 pages People’s Commission (1998) The Troubled Waters: A Report on the 1998 floods in Eastern Uttar Pradesh Independent People’s Commission on Floods in UP. Poudel S. N., Pandit, R. K., and Roshan S. (2002) Community approach to flood management in Nepal, A Pilot Case Study, Jal Shrot Vikas Sanstha, Kathmandu. Sharma C.K. (1977) River System of Nepal, published by Mrs. Sangeeta Sharma 23/281 Bishalnagar, Kathmandu Nepal. Shanker, K. (1985) Water Resources, In T.C. Majupuria (ed), Nepal: Nature’s Paradise pp 25-31. White Lotus Co., Bangkok. Upreti, B. N. and Dhital, M. R. (1995) July Landslide Studies and Management in Nepal Himalaya; paper submitted to the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu.

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158 CHAPTER7

Peripheral Heartland: Floods in Eastern Uttar Pradesh

Shashikant Chopde, Shiraz A. Wajih and Amit Kumar „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Case Study Guidance Note

Country: India Location: Uttar Pradesh Date: May 2007 Sector and Spatial focus: Adaptation and DRR Title: Peripheral Heartland: Floods in Eastern Uttar Pradesh Bibliographical reference: Chopde et al. (2007) Peripheral Heartland: Floods in Eastern Uttar Pradesh

Abstract The challenge of climate variability and change are increasingly recognised as serious impediments to poverty alleviation. Floods, for example, reverse the development process to a great extent and worsen the situation of disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. The post-disaster context, especially, offers a window of opportunity for political support and PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP for development processes. There is a need to make best use of this opportunity to bring in a change, to design and implement systems in a way that mitigates disaster risk for future risks. The strategy followed is to work outward from the conditions of a household or community and those factors enabling or constraining responses to disasters to identify points of leverage for change. Shared learning dialogues (SLDs) are central to this process because they allow us and the community to build a shared understanding of opportunities and constraints without being held in by predefined notions of what risk reduction consists of.

Eastern UP is a flood prone region of the Indo-Gangetic plain of India. The methodology for the project involves vulnerability and capacity analysis and SLDs. Information from previous studies is being used. The research is finding that a significant number of households are more vulnerable due to factors related to the during-flood and post-flood periods than to physical damage caused by floods. Key factors causing vulnerability in a community are the lack of diversified agriculture systems and income avenues that are less susceptible to the impacts of floods. The most vulnerable group, however, are the landless who are significantly dependent on agriculture labor for their income.

The SLDs were helpful in identifying strategies that included sets of direct risk reduction interventions and interventions for changing underlying systems for adaptation.

Capacity and vulnerability analyses (CVAs) in conjunction with SLDs at different levels can help identify solutions envisaged in DRR. The ongoing research is showing that both CVAs and SLDs generate multi-pronged benefits in terms of data collection, validation and triangulation of the data, stakeholder engagement and policy advocacy. Most importantly, they also help identify potential solutions and mechanisms for development interventions.

160 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Technical Description „ Hazard/risk type: Floods - recurrent and frequent disruption of human and livelihood systems. „ Type of assessment: Research to understand the factors that constrain and enable local communities to reduce risk and adapt to climatic and other sources of vulnerability

Research and Analytical Process „ Methods/tools used: Scoping surveys, SLDs, ranking tools

Key Insights Generated for Vulnerability Reduction and Capacity Enhancement „ Direct support to DRR and Adaptation: Agriculture interventions relating to inundation resistant and early sowing/ harvesting crops, irrigation technologies enhancing access to irrigation, financial risk spreading through crop insurance, innovative models of sanitation and handpumps, housing technology resistant to floods, and early warning systems. „ System Level support: Adaptation incubation systems that support self-management of people’s institutions for continual innovations in agriculture and communication, and improvement in education, health and transport systems.

Potential Strategies Identified: See Table on following page.

Strategic Notes and Lessons Learned – Key Points to Emphasise: „ Capacity and vulnerability analyses act as an initial pointer to the solutions envisaged in disaster risk reduction, complemented by the SLDs at different levels. This study establishes that both these tools/techniques do work and that they generate multi-pronged benefits in terms of data, validation and triangulation of data collected, stakeholder engagement and policy advocacy. Most importantly, they also help to identify potential solutions and mechanisms for development interventions. „ At the field level, SLDs conducted with disaster affected communities not only serve as a platform for sharing experience but also help to identify useful solutions for problems identified by the community. „ SLDs are useful in building capacity in community members and the project team. „ SLDs are a two-way knowledge transfer process. For example, we communicate technical and qualitative details of global warming to local communities. Community members, in return, explain to us the impacts at the field level (both existing and expected) in terms of occupational mobility, migration patterns, livelihood systems etc. „ This two-way transfer of information regarding knowledge of climate change and its impacts (tangible or indirect) needs to be interposed with the community’s perspectives. These set the stage for making decisions on key action points. „ Solutions emerging in SLDs need to be documented and shared with stakeholders during further SLDs and/or in meetings with policy makers. „ SLDs need to be have greater participation from women and other marginalized groups.

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ADAPTATION SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS Disaster Risk Organization & Skill Village Description Diversification Ecosystem Reduction Incubation Development

Population-1,765 Early maturing Increasing soil Provision of Self-managing Awareness (M-726, F-679, and water- fertility through soil irrigation pumps, institutions, programme & Lakshmipur C-360), standing crops, testing and maintaining and formation of training: intensive Agricultural land- fodder treatment , disinfecting hand farmers groups, farming, design 125 hectares: conservation Checking soil pumps, construction village health and construction irrigated-95, non- erosion through of drainage pipes committee, of portable raised irrigated-30, bamboo cultivation but depending upon establishing toilets, personal Total HH-199, most on the land between support of local village resource hygiene people (80%) are embankment and people (on both centres and self- small farmers river, making water sides embankment help groups logging area and road) cultivable

Sonatikar Population-525 Early maturing Increasing soil Provision of Self-managing Awareness (M-242, F-198, paddy crop, fertility through soil community institutions, programme on C-85), water-standing testing and tubewells, formation of disaster mitigation Agricultural land- crop, mixed treatment, Utilising maintaining hand farmers groups, & training: 78 hectares: cropping, increase water bodies for pumps establishing intensive farming,

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP irrigated-68, non- cropping Fisheries village resource vegetable irrigated-10, intensity,vegetable centres and self- production, seed Total HH-100 production help groups production, water- standing crops, composting, personal hygiene

Manoharchak Population-467 Early maturing Increasing soil Provision of Self-managing Awareness (M-198, F-186, and water- fertility through soil community institutions, programmes on C-83), standing crops, testing and tubewells, formation of disaster Agricultural land- fodder treatment , maintaining hand farmers groups, mitigation, 45 hectares: conservation Checking soil pumps, training in establishing training and irrigated-29, non- erosion through making raised village resource exposure visits irrigated-16, bamboo cultivation hygienic toilets, centres and self- Total HH-104 on the land between immunisation of help groups and embankment and children and health river livestock committees

M = Males F = Females C = Children HH = Households

„ SLDs act as a triangulation and validation tool. „ System and process delivery needs, including those related to policies, should be identified at all levels. The overall SLD process can be viewed as a pyramidal set-up primarily for increasing the number of “solutions” identified and promoted through dialogue across all levels.

Keywords: Floods, SLD, CVA, Climate Change, Adaptation, DRR ,Uttar Pradesh

Resource persons: Shashikant Chopde and Shiraz Wajih

162 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

UNDERLYING SYSTEM FOR ADAPTATION Financial and Financial Risk Spreading Communication Education Transport Mechanism Organisation Livelihood

Income Information Training on seed Boats, bamboo Linking self-help Community Off-season generation centre at village production, Kishan bridge groups with banks irrigation vegetable & activities such as level, early Credit Cards-KCC- and savings and management, mushroom mushroom warning systems, (farmer’s credit credit setting up farming, seed production, goat communication cards), crop organisations systems for production, rearing, fisheries, centres, insurance,ensuring community kitchen gardening poultry farming, community radio availability of contributions to and candle-making (FM), mobile Information, repair water vermicomposting phones Education and pumps Communication (IEC) materials, exposure visits

Income Information Training on seed Boats, bamboo Linking self-help Community Off-season generation centre at village production,vermi bridge groups with banks irrigation vegetable & activities such as level, early and nadep and savings and management mushroom mushroom warning systems, composting,ensuring credit farming, seed production, goat communication avability of IEC organisations production, rearing, fisheries, centres, materials, kitchen gardening poultry farming, community radio exposure visits, and candle-making (FM), mobile KCC and crop vermicomposting phones insurance

Income Information Training on KCC, Boats, bamboo Linking self-help Community generation centre at village crop insurance, bridge groups with banks irrigation activities such as level, developing ensuring avability and savings and management, vegetable and mushroom and early warning of IEC materials credit voluntarily mushroom production, system through through resource organisations draining excess production, seed kitchen gardening, mobile phones centre, exposure water production, goat rearing, and community visits kitchen gardening, fisheries, poultry radio (FM) but vnursery raising , farming, candle- depending upon vermicomposting, making external goat rearing, stakeholder’s fisheries, incense support stick-making, candle-making

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opportunity as affected local populations Introduction tend to be more willing to make structural and livelihood changes they might otherwise not have been willing to make. Further, the financial constraints faced by poor and vulnerable communities can be overcome more easily in post-disaster contexts, when a flow of funds is made available through government grants, relief aid and other support. Though such opportunities are pulsed, they promote a The impacts of climate variability and better understanding of disaster recovery change are increasingly being processes and enable the introduction of recognised as serious impediments to measures for systemic changes. Often, the poverty alleviation in South Asia. In impact of extreme climatic events fact, the repeated occurrence of disasters intertwine with the social and economic such as floods and droughts and their constraints prevailing within a region - impacts has added a new layer to the such as a non-diversified livelihood base Mechanisms can be endemic poverty of a large section of the and poor social and economic

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP identified by working Indian populace. Extreme events worsen infrastructures – and make its population with households, the situation of disadvantaged and more vulnerable. communities and vulnerable groups and reverse the few benefits which have accrued from the During the course of this study, we did other local entities to development process. South Asia’s not limit our definition of interventions identify the factors seventy per cent of disasters are climate for disaster risk reduction to that constrain or related and as global climatic change conventional techniques such as enable them to increases the frequency and intensity of structural protection and provision of respond to events that floods and drought events, the poor and relief. We believe that other practical and could cause disaster. the disadvantaged will become even effective mechanisms can be identified by more vulnerable. Furthermore, much of working with households, communities the world’s population lives in and other local entities to identify those vulnerable regions and the number of factors that constrain or enable them to such people is projected to grow. Unless respond to events that could cause the cycle of disaster and poverty can be disaster. In almost all communities, some broken, the world stands little chance of groups are relatively unaffected by ever reaching the millennium extreme events while others are development goals (MDGs). devastated. The differences between those who thrive despite the impacts of It is worthwhile to note that there is a extreme events and those who are silver lining under the dark cloud of harmed reveal the nature of both disasters. This lining is the window of enabling and constraining factors and opportunity the disasters create not only include behavioural as well as other for influencing the approaches of factors. The identification of differences development practitioners and policy- can, in turn, help identify points of makers but also for catalysing political leverage (policy, infrastructure or other support for change in post-disaster changes) for removing constraints which contexts. Disasters create an limit the ability of vulnerable groups to

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undertake the actions to reduce These field locations are also vulnerable PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP vulnerability that unaffected groups to the sudden problems, typically generally take. Once these constraints associated with flooding or extreme are known we can identify strategies storm events. As a result, issues related to that should help local people respond early warning systems and the role of better to local conditions. ecosystems in buffering floods and storms are significant. In addition, the Our overall strategy is to work outward rapid onset of floods and the vulnerable from the conditions of a household or a locations of homes and workplaces at the community. Shared learning dialogues field sites resemble patterns of (SLDs) are central because they allow us vulnerability similar to those of other researchers, to build a shared field sites for this project in India, Nepal understanding of opportunities and and Pakistan. In fact, the field-level constraints without being limited by scenario as well as the national-level pre-conceived notions of what risk policy and knowledge management reduction constitutes. Through dialogue activities found in the Eastern Utter and semi-structured qualitative and Pradesh study are both core parts of a quantitative surveys with local larger programme on adaptation as well communities, government as being an integrated study of their own. The strategies local representatives, NGOs and other actors communities in the area, our goal is to develop both a Two villages in Maharajganj District, pursue for coping shared vision of key issues and a semi- Lakshmipur and Manoharchak, and one with and adapting quantitative baseline of information. village in Gorakhpur District, Sonatikar were selected in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. to flood impacts The impacts of monsoon river floods, In all three villages, flood disaster is a are not at all well which occur more regularly than coastal process rather than a single event. Each documented. floods are well documented and disaster makes the poor more vulnerable understood, the mitigation strategies to the next disaster and all disasters are a adopted by state agencies are fairly well normal condition for those repeatedly reported on. The strategies local affected. This process is aggravated by communities pursue for coping with the fact that these communities suffer and adapting to such impacts, in from multiple hazards, both natural and contrast, are not at all well documented. man-made. This paper discusses the strategies adopted by communities within the flood-affected region of the Rohini Basin Peripheral Heartland in India’s Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. The case study field sites were selected Around 29 % of the 33,270 km2 of Eastern because the issues that are most Uttar Pradesh is a flood-prone region of important at the field level – access to the Indo-Gangetic plain. The flood- communication systems and the affected areas cover the low lying location of homes in vulnerable areas districts of Gorakhpur and Maharajganj, such a flood plains – relate well to whose socio-economic and human national policy regarding, knowledge development indices are lower than management in the areas of those of other Indian states (Figure 1). environmental management, Floods affect agriculture, the main source vulnerability and communication. of livelihood in this region, disrupt life

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and devastate property on a large scale, Rapti also originates in Nepal, flowing impede socio-economic progress, down from the Mahabharat range, and including education, and destroy rural meeting the Gandak near the town of infrastructure. The effects of flooding Gorakhpur, Eastern Uttar Pradesh. The are exacerbated by the characteristics Rohini River system, which originates in which prevail in the region: poverty, Nepal, is composed of three rivers, the poor health services, malnutrition, Rohini, the Tinau and the Banagana and illiteracy, lack of food and livelihood their tributaries. Weirs and barrages have security, extensive out-migration and been built on the Gandak and the West ecological degradation. Rapti rivers as well as on some of their tributaries. Although the Rohini River Eastern Uttar Pradesh constitutes a system is used extensively and causes riparian land system formed by the large-scale flood damage, it does not Gandak, West Rapti rivers and the appear on the radar screen of the Rohini River system. Situated north of government of either Nepal or India. the Ganga River, the region is commonly known as the trans-Saryu The average annual rainfall in the area is plain. The Gandak is a snow-fed river between 800 mm and 900 mm. The that originates in Nepal. The West maximum rainfall generally occurs in July

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP and the minimum, which is negligible, | FIGURE 1 | Gorakhpur/Maharajganj occurs between December and March.

Field sites for this case study were selected within the Rohini Basin because N it has faced major floods in the past: In 1904, each year between 1952 and 1957, in 1960, and their again in1962, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2001. The 2001 flood was followed by a drought in 2002. Attempts MAHARAJGANJ To Pharendra have been made to control flooding along Paniyara the Rohini by constructing embankments, Campierganj a process which began in 1952 and To Bodarwar continued intermittently until 1985. Every Chillua Tal Pali Pipraich flood led to the loss of crops, dwellings, To Khailabad Kunraghat food grains, seeds and personal 28 To Hata belongings, and each case villagers Piprauli GORAKHPUR Kusmi Forest sought shelter on nearby embankments

R Rapti BASTI Mundera Bhaunvanpar To Deoria for many days. The receding floodwaters Unawal deposited sand on agricultural land, National Highway Kauriram District Boundary rendering the land unproductive. With Road the exception of the 1998 flood, which Belghat 29 River was the result of a very wet monsoon Gola Bazar FAIZABAD Railway Track mostly in the Rohini River system, every District Headquarter flood event here was the result of rivers in Study Area AZAMGARH Town the lower parts of the north Ganga plains MAUNATH BHANJAN Villages overflowing.

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village. Although the embankment does PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP The Study Villages check regular floods, it has also caused increasing waterlogging of agricultural fields. Most farmers own less than one acre of land and the village lacks basic water supply, sanitation and health services. Out-migration is high.

Lakshmipur

A profile of the selected village study Lakshmipur, a village of 199 households, sites is provided in Appendix 1 at the is situated on the banks of the Rohini end of this chapter.. River, 45 km from the district headquarters, Gorakhpur. It, too, is regularly flooded. Most of the agricultural land in the village Manoharchak is surrounded by embankments, which cause the land to become waterlogged Manoharchak, a small village of just 104 during heavy rains. The irrigation households, is situated on the banks of department has an office in the village and the Rohini River, 40 km from Gorakhpur regularly maintains the embankments. The the district headquarters. Agriculture, village has a primary and a junior high the main source of income for the school. Agriculture is the main source of residents, is seriously affected by livelihood, but migration has significantly flooding caused by the 35-year-old increased as villagers seek an alternative Rohini River embankment outside the source of livelihood.

Manoharchak

Thatched house House made with bricks House with tiled roof Handpump Indira Housing Well Brick paved road Dirt Road Brick paved roads on embankments Less-flood affected house Flood affected house Waterlogged area Non-irrigated land

Social Map of Manoharchak

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Rohini River

Pond

Bamboo Rohini River Non-irrigated area

Area affected by flood

Space for storing Embankment household crops Pond

Pond

Metallic road Shops Hut

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Road paved with bricks House built under Indira housing scheme House with television set Earthern roads Forest House with concrete roof Area likely to be water logged Resettled House with tile roofing Area likely to be affected by fire Hand Pump Social Map of Lakshmipur

Sonatikar of the most-flood affected villages in the region though a large embankment Located 45 km from the district stands between the village and the river. headquarters, Sonatikar is situated at The embankment prevents the rivers the edge of the Rohini River and is one from overflowing into the village of 100 households but it also stops rainwater from draining out of the agricultural fields into the river. During periods of heavy rain, fields become waterlogged for two or three months. Almost half of the villagers have moved to the main road, which they say is safer during floods.

In all three villages, the majority of the farmers own less than one acre of land and fall into the “marginal farmer” category. Landless families depend upon seasonal agricultural labour for income. More details about the three villages and the issues and problems they face due to flooding are outlined in Social Map of Sonatikar on a bedsheet. Appendix 2.

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Scoring and ranking methods were used PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Methodology and Tools Used to identify the most severe problems. Participants were asked to prioritise the problems that affected their village as a whole rather than those faced at an individual or family level. The strategy we adopted assumes working with households, communities and other local entities is an effective mechanism for identifying those factors that prevent or enable responses to events that could The methodology for our study cause disaster. Without such involved the implementation of consultations the problems faced by a vulnerability and capacity analyses small group of people or households through SLDs, while information from within a community will be overlooked. previous studies conducted in these In-depth discussions on the problems villages was used to profile the identified followed and social maps characteristics of the area. Community were used to analyse the causes and groups as well as panchayat (local effects of each problem. This process is government) members participated in outlined in Figure 2. the SLDs held in each village. The problems and issues faced by each village as a whole as well as those faced Livelihoods by villagers individually were discussed. A social map was used to assess the occupation of each village by household. In addition to farming, residents in Maharajganj and | | FIGURE 2 The process Gorakhpur districts are engaged in daily wage labour, rickshaw-pulling, hair-cutting, and puffing food grains Rounds of village Rounds of discussion with community and panchayat members on several issues. Women are equally level meetings (bhar). They are also engaged in fishing, encouraged to participate and express their views. weaving fish nets, tailoring, owning grocery shops, owning tea shops, selling milk, vegetables and fruit carrying

Problem identification Problems with the issues are identified by the goods, doing unskilled labour in brick community and discussed in the meeting. Major and listing existing problems are listed. kilns and performing religious tasks.

Population and Migration Preference Scoring and Ranking methods is used Prioritisation to prioritise the problems. For scoring, people are scored by hand raising. Some of the community members are helped in the process. Migration is a popular way of adapting to floods. In the last several years, the search for jobs outside of the three

Problem Tree is made by the community after villages has increased significantly. Causes and analysing the causes. Problem that was on the top Young men in Lakshmipur, effect analysis of priority is taken for analysis. Major effects are also analysed and put in the problem tree. Manoharchak and Sonatikar would

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rather not live in their birthplaces and Education Services work as farmers. The number of migrants has increased sharply as has Table 2 presents a picture of the status of the distances which people migrate. education obtained from the SLDs. Two People’s greater willingness to travel to indicators are given: the level of distant places in search of livelihoods satisfaction and the distance from the has increased local occupational village. In general, the higher the level of mobility. The duration of migration has education an institution confers, the also increased. People often go away for further it is from a village. Though one to one-and-a-half years, returning to primary schools are found in all three visit their villages for only one or two villages, the people are not satisfied festivals annually. At the end of this with how they are administered, in period, they return to the village for about particular, the lack of teachers, three months and then emigrate again irregularity of classes, poor quality (see Table 1). One result of this rise in midday meals and poor facilities. The extended out-migration has been an majority of children from poor families People’s greater increase in the incidence of HIV infection. do go to primary school or anganwadis, willingness to travel Another is that with men away for longer but beyond junior high school, their to distant places in periods of time, the impact of flooding is participation decreases dramatically.

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP gradually becoming feminised. The average distance to a primary search of livelihoods school is about four kilometres and there has increased local is a junior high school in Lakshmipur. occupational mobility. Access to Services High school, intermediate and graduate level education, however, is beyond the Access to key services was mapped in reach of these villagers. On average order to understand the social structure students have to travel almost 18 within which communities function. The kilometres to get to the nearest college at findings are summarised in the sections a cost which is prohibitively expensive. below. Thus, because of the high cost of

| TABLE 1 | Migration Trends Number of Households Migrated to Villages Households with a migrant Per cent Local migration Distant migration Sonatikar 100 28 28 Brick kilns in Campierganj, Delhi, Gujarat, Mumbai, Lakshmipur 134 64 48 Pipiganj and Gorakhpur Punjab and Haryana Manoharchak 80 37 46

Source: Field survey, 2006

| TABLE 2 | The Status of Education in the Studied Villages Anganwari Primary Jr. High/High Inter college Degree College Village D S D S D S D S D S Sonatikar 1 0 1 4 4 5 6 5 18 3 Lakshmipur 2 2 0 7 0 5 7 9 19 7 Manoharchak 0.5 9 0.5 4 1.5 5 6 8 17 7

S : Satisfaction in quality of education (on a 0 to 10 point scale) Source: Field survey, 2006 D : Distance from village (in kilometres)

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transportation children of poor families Agriculture Services PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP are not educated beyond the primary level (see Table 2). In the villages studied there are no agricultural facilities at the village level. For basic provisions such as seeds, Health Services fertilisers and pesticides, people must go to the block headquarters which is about Information on both government and 13 kilometres away. For other materials, private health services was assessed such as tube wells and equipment and using diagrams which mapped the even some seeds, people must go to the services provided against the district headquarters about 55 opportunities to seek those services. As kilometers away. Agricultural co- indicated in Table 3, the quality of operatives do exist but they are government health services at the local essentially defunct and people awarded level is poor. People often consult them no marks for the criterion of private doctors or visit a medical college satisfaction. for better treatment. Private practitioners People often consult and the staff at nursing homes have much greater credibility than the staff at Food Deficiency Months, Coping private doctors or government institutions. The one Strategies and Livelihoods visit a medical college community health care centre available for better treatment. at the block level does function Critical information about the duration comparatively well and people are of food deficiencies among the rural satisfied with its services. This centre is population, their strategies of coping distant from the villages, however, and with deficiencies and their livelihood hence, in an emergency, no good quality options are summarised in the Table 4. services are available locally. Clearly, basic infrastructure related to health, education and agriculture is

| TABLE 3 | Status of Health Services

Private Doctors Primary Community District PrivateNursing Medical at village level Health Centre Health Centre Hospital Home College Village S D S D S D S D S D S D Sonatikar 3 0 - - 37 2 1837 56 37 4 Lakshmipur 5 2 4 10 7 - 2056 86 56 4 Manoharchak 5 1 1 4 5 55 3 55 9 55 2

S : Satisfaction of services provided (on a 0 to 10 point scale) Source: Field survey, 2006 D : Distance from village (in kilometres)

| TABLE 4 | Gap in Food Access

Basin Food Gap (in months) Strategy Livelihood Rohini Basin i. Bhadra (Aug/Sept) The major coping strategy is to consume less food. People have no option other (Maharajganj and ii. Falgun (March) Bread eaten with salt is the main food during these than doing labour on minimal Gorakhpur districts) iii. Magh (Feb/March) months. Bhuja, Chiura, Sattu, potato and a little wages. The wages earned sugar is also eaten. For some households, fasting is hardly afford two meals for a major strategy for survival. At critical times, people the family. People consider are compelled to obtain credits from moneylenders these periods as exploitative by mortgaging agricultural lands. months. Source: Field survey, 2006

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lacking and reduces the adaptive schemes are selected. The stated capacity of these communities in times beneficiaries often receive nothing, of disaster. while wealthy people with access to power and money enjoy substantial An attempt was also made to benefits. Only people from Lakshmipur understand the service delivery roles of were satisfied with the role of the two important formal institutions – panchayat during floods. They believe federal government extension services panchayat committees properly distribute and panchayats in the context of disaster relief materials to villagers. mitigation. Role of Formal Institutions Natural and Climate Hazards

Government extension services Eastern Uttar Pradesh is frequently External agencies like government subjected to flooding, due to its functionaries and voluntary topography and heavy rainfall. Most organisations play a vital role in communities know little about the External agencies disaster risk reduction. The construction impacts climate change may have on the and voluntary of houses on higher grounds is an already difficult local conditions. Since

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP organisations can important step towards disaster risk climate change information is still play a vital role in reduction in flood-prone areas. Indeed, emerging, incorporating insights into in Sonatikar, people were allotted lands risk reduction strategies will require disaster risk on high ground to build their homes. effective strategies for a two-way reduction. Very little effort, however, was accorded dialogue. The challenge is to to rehabilitation and relief services. Only communicate the often abstract and during serious floods are food packets technical insights from global science distributed and the maintenance of into a discourse meaningful to local physical structures has been largely communities. At the same time, the overlooked in all flood prone villages. communities have to develop and understanding and communicate the potential implications of climate change Panchayats on their livelihoods. The importance of The linkages between people and shared learning is, as a result, central to welfare schemes in each village were identifying effective strategies for assessed. Though panchayats exist adapting to climate change. In addition, within revenue villages they are as enabling and constraining factors at practically defunct and people are not the community level often have roots in satisfied with their work. In fact, the high-level systems (financial, policy, prevailing sentiment is that these local and institutional), we need to be able to governance units have become agents of identify high-level points of entry and politicians and higher authorities and work with actors operating at the that most are corrupt – particularly in relevant regional, state, or national terms of how beneficiaries for welfare levels.

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cope effectively with hazards, that PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Patterns of Vulnerability increase their resilience, or that otherwise reduce their susceptibility are considered as their capacity to cope with disaster. Capacity varies depending on factors like poverty, gender, caste (social inclusion), age, physical and mental ability, or what is Climate change impacts are, and will known as everyday vulnerabilities. be, different on all scales. This means that different regions, different social Capacity and vulnerability analysis groups and different individuals will (CVA) was used as a tool to assess the face different, diverse and unequal vulnerabilities extant in the three impacts and difficulties in coping with villages studied (see Table 5a, 5b, 5c). climate change. This makes vulnerability Social mapping and community group to climate change differ too. Hence, discussions were also used. The vulnerability is locally based and must findings about the existing village-level Vulnerability is be analysed and understood in context. vulnerabilities and capacities, locally based and Vulnerability can be defined simply as a information that is necessary for further must be analysed set of conditions and processes resulting intervention are summarised in the and understood from physical, social, economic, and tables below. environmental factors which increase the in context. susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. Changing Nature of Vulnerability

Factors that increase the ability of Vulnerability is dynamic and context- people and the society they live in to dependent. A farming family, for

| TABLE 5a | Capacity and Vulnerability Analysis Lakshmipur

Vulnerability Capacity Physical/Material - Over 75% of households own less than one acre of land - Embankment for refuge during floods - Around 50 acres of agricultural land is waterlogged - Irrigation Department office exists - Around 250 acres of agricultural land is under-irrigated - Access to road - Health centres do not function; the satisfaction level for - Market is 7 km away these is low - knowledge of building temporary bridge during flood - Only 5-6 hours of power supply a day - 12 individuals have mobile phones and 36 households - local food supplies only last six months of the year have television - Drought is as a problem - 3 Public Call Offices - Primary and junior high schools

Social/Organisational - Defunct gram panchayat - Puja committees (Durga, Saraswati) exist - Caste divisions during elections - Decentralised roles and responsibilities in group work - 50% of households have members who migrate out, - Youth sports team migration of youths is increasing - Physical and moral support during floods - No formal group like Mahila Mandal and no self-help group

Motivation/Attitude - "Flood is our destiny" and "We cannot get external support" - Readiness to work together are accepted mantras - Demand for new agriculture techniques - Depend on government/panchayat to maintain hand pumps, - Participation in community meetings tube wells - Willingness to obtain new information - Readiness to contribute to resources

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| TABLE 5b | Capacity and Vulnerability Analysis Manoharchak

Vulnerability Capacity Physical/Material - Over 80% of households own less than one acre of land - Embankment for refuge during floods - Health centre does not function well; visits by medical - Village electrified worker are irregular - Functional ITC: e-chaupal internet connectivity - Only 5-6 hours of power supply a day - Connected to road - Local food supplies only last six months of the year - Market is 8 km away - Very few natural water reservoirs; deep water table (60-65 - Knowledge to build temporary bridges and roads feet) during floods - A large number of eligible families have no Below Poverty - Mobile phone network available Line (BPL) ration cards - 1 Public Call Office

Social/Organisational - Defunct gram panchayat - Puja committees - Caste divisions during election period - Decentralised roles and responsibilities - 47% of households have members who migrate; migration - Mutual physical and moral support among people in of youths is gradually increasing disaster situations - No formal group like Mahila Mandal and no self-help group - Some community members are active and encourage Motivation/Attitude - Sense of hopelessness in obtaining any government or others panchayat support - Demand for new agricultural techniques - No faith in panchayat - Participation in community meetings - Depend on panchayat to repair tube well and for health - Willingness to seek new knowledge centre - Readiness to contribute to resources PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

| TABLE 5c | Capacity and Vulnerability Analysis Sonatikar

Vulnerability Capacity Physical/Material - Over 80% of households own less than one acre of land - Embankment for refuge during floods - High number of landless families - Half of the village is electrified - Health centre and schools do not exist in village - Connected with road - Half of the village is not electrified - Urban market is 8 km away - Local food supplies only last for six months of the year - Knowledge of building temporary bridges and - A large number of eligible families do not have Below walkways during floods Poverty Line (BPL) ration cards - Mobile network is available - A large area of agricultural land is waterlogged (around - 1 Public Call Office 100 acres) - Land is waterlogged for 2-3 months

Social/Organisational - Defunct gram panchayat - Puja committees - Caste divisions during election - Decentralised roles and responsibilities - 28% of households have memebers who migrate; - Mutual physical and moral support during disasters migration among youths is increasing - No formal group like Mahila Mandal and no self-help groups

Motivation/Attitude - Poor faith in panchayat - Some community members are active and influence - Dependent on government/panchayat to maintain hand others pumps, tube wells - Demand for new agricultural techniques - People are not interested in collective work - Community members participate in meetings and discussions - Willingness to obtain new knowledge - Readiness to contribute to resources

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example, may be more vulnerable to PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP floods, than a landless family is.

Spatial and time factors play a crucial © A Pokhrel role in defining vulnerability too.

In terms of their vulnerability, poor families or communities are broadly classified as improving, coping or declining.

Poor people can move through these three classifications over the course of a month or year. Just as there are cases of people ‘coping’ with a disaster situation moving to the ‘improving’ category by virtue of increasing their Sand bags placed for preventing further degradation of incomes through out-migration there embankment at breached section. are also incidences of people who fall from ‘improving’ all the way down to ‘declining’. It is important to document changes in coping status which are influenced by income level as income is voice their ideas about how services Numerous constraints the real agent of change. should be designed. need to be overcome to ensure that women Gender is clearly an indicator of Women and girls find it difficult to participate effectively. vulnerability, specifically in relation to participate in consultations for several health, education, mortality, economic reason. Some of these are: participation, decision-making and „ socio-cultural barriers safety. As a result of proactive „ poor timing (timings that conflict with measures taken in the past, gender chores women are obliged to carry gaps in literacy appear to be narrowing out) and inappropriate venues for in those states where the disparity meetings (places where women are between men and women was once not allowed) high (according to the 2001 population „ inability to travel freely census). „ lack of free time.

Although the poor are adversely The 74th Constitutional Amendment impacted as a whole, women and girls (1992) has enshrined a structural basis are the most vulnerable among them for women’s participation in political because they have little voice in decision-making and for bringing them decision-making. In rural areas into the mainstream of development. The dominated by men and elites, women process of actually empowering women often are not well represented and promoting gender balance, however, politically, are neither consulted nor is in a nascent stage. Numerous included in development planning constraints need to be overcome to ensure processes, and, as a result, cannot that women participate effectively.

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Shared Learning Dialogue Since government bureaucrats, market players and activists define a problem or disaster event differently, they each support different policy measures. As is the case in the SLD paradigm, policy reviews were begun at the lowest level, with the communities affected by disasters. Market players were asked to describe constraints to provide cheaper and more efficient solutions and The process of SLD is based on activists was asked to challenge and reflexive learning from other positions examine the issues of fairness affecting and perspectives. It is distinguished those communities. The relevant from the rigid certitude of mono- government departments were provided disciplinary styles, especially those of with recommendations for single-mission outfits which advocate implementation procedures that could top-down, structural solutions to address the concerns of all three sets of mitigate the impact of floods and actors. These recommendations focused

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP droughts. SLD is built around the idea on innovation, fairness and effective of introducing the insights of social regulation. The findings from the SLDs sciences into vulnerability and risk that were conducted are summarised in assessment. While technical experts Table 6. know much, villagers suffering from Using the SLD floods and droughts know many of the method, this study social and environmental contexts in Key Points from the SLDs for Strategies: aimed to understand which they cope with the disasters still better. Using the SLD method, this local concerns and study aimed to understand local „ Varied perceptions on hazards knowledge. concerns and knowledge and to emerged. Although overall, at the integrate them with proposed pilot village level, droughts and floods are interventions. perceived to be a common disaster, the village level definition of a We undertook various activities to hazard often did not equate with the engage with different groups at official definition. For example, different levels and scales so that we villagers define drought as those could gain insights into issues that may periods when their crops require have been missed by focusing only on a water and there is no rainfall. This single perspective. Learning through definition is different from that used SLD involves engaging in discussions by the state government which with representatives from government, defines drought based on the deficit market and civic movements on issues in total volume of annual rainfall relating to adaptation, livelihood and relative to normal volumes. mitigation, reviewing existing „ Early flood warning systems need to mitigation strategies, and establishing devolve beyond the region, district or communication links among different block level to the village level. The groups. villagers of Lakshmipur suggested

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| TABLE 6 | Summary of Findings from Shared Learning Dialogues PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Level No of SLDs Stakeholder Description Village 5 Community representatives from First SLD in five villages discussed the nature of disasters and local government and NGOs associated risks. This area is highly flood prone but drought is an emerging hazard as the monsoon is becoming more erratic.

Block 1 Block Development Officer (BDO), Main points of earlier SLD shared. Stakeholders' views on flood Assistant Development Officer and rehabilitation explored. District administration (DA) identified (ADO), Media, panchayat officials, as prime authority to implement rehabilitation programme and block level government officials.* BDO and ADO perform as instructed by the DA. Compensation assessment not the responsibility of DA. Officials agree damage assessment process is not transparent. Crop insurance can be an effective tool.

State 1 NGOs, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), A short discussion on the present scenario of floods and other Oxfam, Church's Auxiliary for Social disasters in Eastern UP including the nature and frequency of flood Action (CASA), Radio and TV, Project and ecological change due to disaster. Discussion of communication thematic partners, District and State needs and systems at village, block, district and state level during disaster management cell disaster, and policies on disaster mitigation and rehabilitation.

Panel 1 Attended by about 1,000 farmers Crop insurance and compensation was one of the major issues discussion on and NGOs, chaired by senior discussed. Farmers from flood and drought affected regions crop insurance administrative officer who shared suggested that efforts should be made to raise the issue of in during Jan his views on farmer's rights. insurance and compensation. Present mechanisms and policies Sansad on crop insurance and damage assessment is complicated and beyond the reach of the community.

*Dialogue is planned for Paniyara Block.

that if they could receive information flood season (July-August) and crops Preventive on water levels, then preventive that can survive waterlogged measures could measures could be taken to save their conditions. be taken to save assets, including crops. Currently „ Seasonal migration helps local their assets, people get some information on the communities that are regularly probability of a flood event through affected by floods to cope with the including crops. newspapers and the radio. Such losses incurred. information is not considered „ Interventions and actions are needed specific enough, however, for people at different levels—household, to determine if their village is likely to community groups and village levels. be affected or not. Currently, villagers „ At levels higher than the field level, monitor river water levels next to questions of who should undertake their village on their own. They use what activities leads into the river level assessments to make questions of what needs to be done judgments on whether or not a flood for adaptation and disaster risk event is likely. reduction. „ Farmers were interested in knowing „ During the SLD process, several about suitable alternative crops that issues were raised regarding high they could cultivate to minimise crop frequency disasters with low impacts damage due to floods or poor versus. low frequency disasters with rainfall. These could include early- high impacts. Three important sowing short duration crops that can questions emerged which be harvested before the onset of the stakeholders felt are important to

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consider while designing disaster was constructed 35 years ago. In risk reduction strategies: 2001, the embankment protected the a. How do we sustain proposed village from floods, but later it adaptive strategies for DRR breached, washing away part of the (insurance, communication village and forming a large pond on mechanisms, early warning systems) arable land. The ring bund also for low frequency/high impact prevents flood water from draining disasters? properly, resulting in waterlogging. b. In developing adaptive strategies, Though the soil is fertile, should the focus be on high agricultural productivity has been frequency and low impact disasters, adversely affected. The Irrigation while nonetheless keeping high Department has neglected its impact events in mind? responsibility for maintaining the c. How do we integrate adaptive bund. As a result, the threat of its strategies overall development? breaching and inundating the village is constant. It was also pointed out that market and „ In addition to discussing field based larger political dynamics can exacerbate issues, the state level SLD, also SLDs help gather the vulnerability of local communities. broached policy requirements. This

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP people’s forum allowed for a discussion and perceptions of the „ The various representatives of recognition of community needs and government departments we possible policy changes called for. costs and benefits interacted with through SLDs were This SLD also helped explore how of disaster risk defensive at first but tended to best to translate policy into action. reduction. provide achievable, incremental “options for the way ahead” for disaster interventions; Who is Vulnerable? „ As a tool, SLDs allow for continuous engagement with stakeholders, From the foregoing, it becomes clear that which is much more meaningful SLDs have helped identify patterns of than simply getting feedback from vulnerability in project villages, and, them as it allows the project team to more specifically, those factors which share experiences and findings. promote or prevent household SLDs are inclusive and integrative adaptation to floods. Villagers used because stakeholders at all levels several specific indicators to identify understand that these discussions vulnerable households, including are not a one-off exercise but rather a susceptibility of physical assets such as forum for continuous discussion; houses and agricultural land to damage „ SLDs help gather people’s inability to cope with or recover from a perceptions of the costs and benefits disruption in the supply of primary of disaster risk reduction strategies: services such as water supply, embankments as a preventive sanitation and health; and the inability measure against floods can be both a to maintain household income, boon as well as a bane. The especially during the post flood periods, embankment in Lakshmipur is a case due to excessive or sole dependence on in point. The ring bund embankment livelihood systems affected by floods.

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| TABLE 7 | Vulnerable Groups PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Manoharchak Lakshmipur Sonatikar Vulnerability Attributes (% households) (% households) (% households) Remarks I) Susceptible to physical damage (houses) Kachchha dwellings prone to a) houses 31 22 damage b) inundation of agricultural fields 25 - Loss in crop production

II) Access to safe drinking water, 75 75 Contamination of handpumps especially during floods due to flood waters

III) Access to sanitation facilities, 100 100 Toilets and open areas for especially during floods defecation remain inundated

IV) Inability to recover from loss of livelihood incomes a) Inability to take at least one extra crop 80 75-80 100 Waterlogged lands due to floods constraining them to take only one crop after flood water recedes b) Lack of irrigation facilities post floods 70 85 70 Lack of access to irrigation technologies resulting in loss in production c) Low income groups (landless) 28 10 40* No alternative income source to agricultural labour

V) Lack of access to information and 100 100 100 People are unaware of alternative early warnings income generation activities and do not have access to effective warning system

* includes marginal farmers who are dependent on big farmers

A cursory look at Table 7 reveals that a but also reveal the mechanisms (or The landless are significant proportion of households are roadmap) for achieving them. Different heavily dependent more at risk because of vulnerability stakeholders can take on distinct roles on agricultural factors related to during-flood and post- in their aim to achieve the common goal labour for generating flood periods than because of physical of disaster risk reduction. Government household income. damage due to floods. A key factor officials agreed, for example, that making a community vulnerable is the damage assessment in post-disaster lack of a diversified agricultural system scenarios is not transparent and that and of income avenues not affected by existing relief and rehabilitation systems flood impacts. The most vulnerable are deficient, but felt that crop insurance group is the landless, who are heavily could emerge as an effective tool to dependent on agriculture labour for minimise the losses of disaster. generating household income. It is important to recall that the government has been mandated with the Who Should One Work With? task of governance and that there should be no duplication of service delivery. SLDs at different levels not only point Instead, the existing government system out possible development interventions needs to be complemented. Treating the

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government as a monolithic institution communities adopt a consensual does not improve local level situations approach rather than, as is typical in either. It is the existing disaster disaster risk reduction interventions, being management cell which has been donor-led. Pilots and briefs (supported by mandated to undertake activities for donors) can go a long way in moving disaster risk reduction that needs to play towards achieving bottom-up initiatives. a key role in the delivery of services. Banks and traders can also contribute Communities impacted by disasters are towards improving conditions in rural the target groups for developing pilot communities. The focus should be on intervention activities. While there is a business rather than on philanthropy tendency of doing too many things at through social responsibility initiatives. one go, especially in the context of Presently, the private sector, banks, disasters, it is more important to exercise traders and insurance communities hide restraint and design interventions that behind the sophistry of ‘systems for and are incremental and achievable. The policies on crop insurance and damage involvement of communities through assessment are too complicated for rural SLDs can lead to effective diagnosis and communities’ rather than using these We also need to throw open options. SLDs at different mechanisms for risk reduction. To widen

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP generate space levels can target achievability in the the reach of disaster risk reduction for market delivery of services. solutions we also need to generate space for market actors. First, though, the actors. SLDs serve as a key tool for civil society existing data gap needs to be filled and institutions and the media to engage key insights into how that aim could be with each other. They also help donor achieved needs to be generated. © A Pokhrel

Embankments180 are sites of refuge during floods. WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

| TABLE 8 | Pilot Adaptive Measures for the Three Study Villages PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Lakshmipur Sonatikar Manoharchak Description of Village Population-1765 (M-726, F-679, Population-525 (M-242, F-198, Population-467 (M-198, F-186, C-360), agriculture land- 125 ha, C-85), agriculture land- 78 ha, C-83), agriculture land- 45 ha, irrigated-95 ha, non irrigated-30 ha, irrigated-68 ha, non irrigated-10 ha, irrigated-29 ha, non irrigated-16 ha, Total HH-199, majority of small Total HH-100 Total HH-104 farmers ( 80%) ADAPTATION SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS Diversification Early maturing and water standing crops, fodder conservation Ecosystem

Disaster Risk Reduction Provision of irrigation pumps, Provision of community tube wells, Provision of community tube wells, maintaining and disinfection hand maintaining hand pumps maintaining hand pumps, training pumps, drainage pipes construction on hygiene toilets making and but depending upon support of raising, immunisation of children local people (on both sides and livestock embankment and road)

Organisation and Self managing institutions, Self managing institutions, Self managing institutions, Incubation formation of farmers groups, formation of farmers groups, formation of farmers groups, village health committee, establishing village resource establishing village resource establishing village resource centres, SHG formation centres, SHG formation, health centres, SHG formation committee

Skill Development Awareness programme and Awareness programme on disaster Awareness on disaster mitigation, training (intensive farming, design mitigation and training (intensive trainings, exposure visits and construction of portable raised farming, vegetable production, toilets, personal hygiene seed production, water standing crops, composting etc., personal hygiene)

Financial and Risk Income generation activities such Income generation activities, such Income generation activities, such Spreading as- mushroom production, goat as mushroom production, goat as mushroom production, kitchen raring, fishery, poultry, candle rearing, fishery, poultry, candle gardening, goat rearing, fishery, making etc. making etc. poultry, candle making etc.

Communication Information centre at village level, Information centre at village level, Information centre at village level, early warning, communication early warning, communication developing early warning system centres, community radio (FM), centres, community radio (FM), through mobile, phones, community mobile phones mobile phones radio (FM) but depending upon external stakeholder’s support UNDERLYING SYSTEM FOR ADAPTATION Education Training on seed production, Kissan Training on seed production,vermi and Training on KCC, crop insurance, Credit Card, crop insurance, nadep composting, ensuring viability ensuring availibility of IEC ensuring availability of IEC of IEC materials, exposure visits, Kissan materials through resource centre, materials, exposure visits Credit Card and crop insurance exposure visits

Transport Boats, bamboo bridge Boats, bamboo bridge Boats, bamboo bridge

Financial Mechanism Linking banks with the self help groups/ Linking SHG with bank, inter Linking SHG with bank, inter loaning savings and credit organisations loaning

Organisation Community irrigation management, Community irrigation management Community irrigation setting up systems for community management, shram daan by contribution to repair water pumps people to drain excess water

Livelihood Off season vegetable and Off season vegetable and Vegetable and mushroom production, mushroom farming, seed mushroom farming, seed seed production, kitchen gardening, production, kitchen gardening and production, kitchen gardening and nursery raising, vermicomposting, goat vermicomposting vermicomposting rearing, fishery, incense stick making, candle making etc.

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Pilot Activities

The disaster risk in the project villages b) Interventions for changing can be mitigated by targeting the underlying systems for adaptation: following activities: These include adaptation incubation systems that support self-managing a) Direct risk reduction interventions: people’s institutions for continual These include agricultural innovations in agriculture and interventions relating to inundation- communication and improvement in resistant and early sowing and/or education, health and transport harvesting crops, irrigation systems. PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP technologies enhancing access to Disaster risk irrigation, spreading financial risk While the above-identified activities through crop insurance, innovative emerged from SLDs, the activities that reduction also needs models of sanitation and handpumps, are actually piloted will need to be technological housing technology resistant to floods, carefully selected after validation by the innovations. and early warning systems. community in the next round of SLDs.

Flood damaged cash crops and paddy: 2007 monsoon, Eastern Uttar-Pradesh © A Pokhrel

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the community possesses. These set PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Summary of Key Insights the stage for making decision on key points of action; „ Solutions emerging in SLDs need to and Conclusions be documented and shared with stakeholders during further SLDs and/or in meetings with policy- makers; „ SLDs need to be more participatory, in particular women and other marginalised groups need to be „ Capacity and vulnerability analyses more involved; and SLDs at different levels help „ SLDs can function as a tool for point out disaster risk reduction triangulation and validation; strategies. This study establishes that „ System and process delivery needs, both these tools do work and that including those related to policies, they generate multi-faceted benefits should be identified at all levels. in terms of generating, validating The SLD process can be viewed as a and triangulating data, engaging horizontal process: more and more stakeholders, and supporting policy SLDs and more ‘solutions’ have to advocacy. Most importantly, they be identified and promoted through also help identify potential ideas and dialogue as one moves across mechanisms for development scales. interventions. SLD is a two-way „ At the field level, SLDs conducted process of with disaster-affected communities Weaknesses of the Methods and knowledge not only serves as a platform for Concepts transfer. sharing experiences but also helps identify useful solutions to problems 1. One of the weaknesses that emerged identified by the community; is that the process of SLDs requires „ SLD is useful in building the intensive inputs in terms of both capacity of both community members money and time. and the project team; 2. So that too many ideas do not float „ SLD is a two-way process of around in a SLD and discussions knowledge transfer. For example, we do not veer away from the agenda, communicate technical details of there is a need for effective global warming to local communities moderation. Who should assume while they explain to us the existing the role of moderator is problematic. and expected impacts at the field If project personnel adopt the role, level in terms of occupational their guiding the discussions can be mobility, migration patterns, seen as a form of bias. livelihood systems, etc.; 3. Contentious issues such as land „ This two-way flow of information rights sometimes take the centre regarding knowledge about climate stage in these platforms. change impacts and their (tangible 4. Some priority areas such as gender- and indirect) impacts needs to be sensitive approaches get low interposed with the understanding priority if not handled carefully.

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Appendix 1

Profile of Project Villages

Village : Sonatikar Block : Campierganj District : Gorakhpur

1. Population: Men Women Children Total

242 198 85 525

2. Types of Houses:

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Kaccha Pakka Phoos Total

32 52 16 100

3. Castewise Population Population Caste No. of Household Male Female General 7 17 14 Backward Class 68 202 165 Other Backward Class 5 11 09 Schedule Caste 20 58 49

4. Number of Households with Toilet : 4

5. Total Agriculture Land Area : 78 ha Irrigated : 68 ha Non irrigated : 10 ha

6. Literacy Male Female 60% 40%

7. Number of Handpumps

Private India Mark 38 12

8. Area open/Under forest : 2 ha

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Village : Manoharchak PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP Block : Paniyara District : Maharajganj

1. Population:

Men Women Children Total

198 186 83 467

2. Types of Houses: Kaccha Pakka Phoos Total

12 72 20 104

3. Castewise Population Population Caste No. of Household Male Female General 7 23 18 Backward Class 70 134 121 Schedule Caste 27 88 83

4. Number of Households with Toilet : 2

5. Total Agriculture Land Area : 45 ha Irrigated : 29 ha Non irrigated : 16 ha

6. Literacy Male Female 70% 30%

7. Number of Handpumps

Private India Mark 26 07

8. Area open/under forest : 0 ha

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Village : Lakshmipur Block : Paniyara District : Maharajganj

1. Population:

Men Women Children Total

726 679 360 1765

2. Types of Houses: Kaccha Pakka Phoos Total

13 156 30 199

3. Castewise Population

Population Caste No. of Household Male Female PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP General 19 59 51 Backward Class 116 656 631 Other Backward Class 29 68 53 Schedule Caste 35 128 119

4. Number of Households with Toilet : 7

5. Total Agriculture Land Area : 225 ha Irrigated : 125 ha Non irrigated : 100 ha Irrigated Land : 95 ha Non Irrigated Land : 30 ha

6. Literacy

Male Female 60% 40%

7. Number of Handpumps

Private India Mark 45 7

8. Area open/under forest : 100 ha

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Appendix 2 PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Issues and Problem Identification in Flood Affected Villages

Manoharchak

Main Problems Identified problems related to flood are as follows: • Unavailability of fertilisers and seeds on time • Lack of electricity • Lack of irrigation water • Lack of safe drinking water and sanitation for villagers • Inaccessibility to govt. welfare schemes (BPL cards, Antyodaya cards etc.) • Lack of labour work at village level

Followings are the problems according to the priority: 1. Lack of Irrigation facilities 2. Lack of safe drinking water and sanitation 3. Inaccessibility to govt. welfare schemes (BPL cards, Antyodaya cards etc.) 4. Unavailability of fertilisers and seeds on time

Lack of Irrigation Water Causes There are several causes that are contributing to lack of irrigation water.

(i) There is a community tubewell in the village but it is not working in the absence of proper maintenance. The panchayat which is accountable for its maintenance is not looking after it properly.

(ii) Most of the farmers have very small land holding and they do not have resources to buy pumping sets or other irrigation equipment. Hence they often hire the pumps from big farmers.

(iii) Lack of electricity is one of the causes. Only 5 to 6 hours of power supply is available. Power cuts often create problems for farmers to assess the full benefit. Irrigation tubewells which require regular supply of power cannot be operated. Maintenance of electric equipment such as a transformer is the prime responsibility of the gram panchayat. But this institution does not even undertake simple repairs.

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(iv) Low water level increases the cost of deep boring and pumping. According to farmers, where the water table is deep, farmers are not able to invest in pumps or individual tube wells. Generally tube wells are set at 65-70 feet.

(v) Irrigation canals are not properly managed and hence interrupt the irrigation process.

(vi) The villages have limited surface water resources. There is no pond close to agriculture land. Carrying water from the river is an arduous job for farmers because there is an embankment between the village and the river. Long irrigation pipes fed by a powerful pumping set would be necessary, which would increase the cost.

Effects (i) Lack of water for irrigation decreases crop production. In the last few years the area has been affected by drought. This is affecting the main kharif crop (paddy).

(ii) As a result farmers are forced to hire the pumping sets and irrigation pipes. Both add to direct cost. PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP (iii) Repeated flood and new drought has detached farmers from agriculture as the work cost of farming is increasing. Migration has significantly increased.

(iv) The load on women has increased significantly. Apart from other household chores, they are also involved in irrigating lands using hand pumps. Overall their health status is affected.

Community’s Perspective of Pilots • The government should help install tubewell of high capacity • Uninterrupted power supply especially during kharif season • Ensure availability of irrigation pipes for small farmers • Irrigation canals should be lined.

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Problem Tree - Manoharchak PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP

Less availability of food Dependence on money lender Health problem

Very low production Less income Dependence on big farmers Increased load on women

Lack of irrigation water

Lack of Malfunctioning of Very deep Lack of resources to water resources government tubewell water table buy pumping set

No development work Improper power supply Inactive panchayat Less income from agriculture

Solution Tree - Manoharchak

Availability of foodLess dependence on money lender Increased work efficiency

High production More income Self dependency Decreased work load for women

Availability of irrigation water

Construction of Functioning of Resources to water projects government tubewell buy pumping set

Development work Proper power supply Active panchayat Support from government

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Sonatikar

Identified Problems • Lack of irrigation facilities • Lack of adequate safe drinking water and sanitation • Single crop in a year • Villagers lacking BPL card, ration card. • No health facilities

Problems on Priority Basis 1. Single crop in a year 2. Lack of irrigation facilities 3. Waterlogging in agricultural fields 4. Inaccessibility of BPL cards to the eligible families 5. Lack of adequate safe drinking water and sanitation.

Single Crop Sonatikar is highly affected by flood. This is primarily a farming community that gets one cropping season (rabi) in a year. PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP (i) Waterlogging of agricultural fields during periods of heavy rain is common. Kharif crops are inundated for 2-3 months. The village situated on elevated land (main road) is less affected by heavy rain. Embankment does not allow rain water to drain.

(ii) Standing water remains for 2 to 3 months and affects sowing of rabi crops.

(iii) Crop productivity has been lowered due to waterlogging. Land fertility has also declined.

(iv) Farmers avoid sowing paddy crop in kharif season because they think that sudden of flood event could cause damages.

(v) There is a lack of knowledge about deep groundwater as well as about early varieties. Farmers do not take any crop in kharif season because they do not have knowledge about the early and deep water varieties which can be grown in flood prone regions.

(vi) Lack of proper irrigation causes low production of rabi crops. Most farmers have small land holding and their income is low. Irrigation facilities are unavailable. Farmers have no option except to hire wells from larger farmers or from the market.

Effects (i) Agricultural produce fetches poor prices. (ii) Food is available for only six months (iii) Compelled to take credit from money lenders

190 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

(iv) Farmers are detached from agriculture PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP (v) Increase in out migration

Community Perception on Further Action • Dissemination and knowledge about water resistant varieties • Availability of tubewells • Training on modern farming technologies to minimise the cost of production • Subsidy on agricultural inputs should be increased to minimisethe cost of production

Problem Tree - Sonatikar

Less availability of food Dependence on money lender Increased migration

Very low production Less income Dependence on market Less work within village

Only one crop in a year

Non availability of good Lack of irrigation No kharif crops quality agricultural inputs

Malfunctioning government tubewell Unreliable power supply Flood and waterlogging Lack of government support

Solution Tree - Sonatikar

Nutritious food No debt Decrease in migration

Food securityMore income Less dependence on market More work in a village

More crop in a year

Irrigation facilities Availability of agricultural inputs Access to local market

Knowledge of water Government tubewell Reliable power supply resistant crops Government support

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Lakshmipur

Identified Problems • Lack of safe drinking water and sanitation • Lack of irrigation water • Waterlogging of fields • Farmers get only one crop in a year • Migration of youths in search of livelihood

Problems on Priority Basis 1. Lack irrigation facilities ( around 250 acres are under irrigated) 2. Single crop a year 3. Waterlogging of agriculture field ( around 50 acre of land is water logged) 4. Migration of youths 5. Lack of adequate safe drinking water and sanitation.

Lack of Irrigation Facilities

Causes

PERIPHERAL HEARTLAND: FLOODS IN EASTERN UP • Most of the agricultural lands are under irrigated. About 250 acres of land are quite affected by lack of water. Water cannot stay in these agricultural lands because of the high land. • Malfunctioning of community tubewell is a major problem. It is does not work due to absence of timely maintenance and repairing. • Lack of electricity increases dependency on fossil fuel. Farmers buy diesels but incur high cost. • Most of the farmers are small holders and do not possess resources to buy pumping sets. They are compelled to hire the sets from big farmers. • Lack of water resources also affects irrigation.

Effects Increase in cost of production due to dependence on groundwater irrigation. Decrease in kharif crops.

Some farmers cultivate kharif crops because their lands are not close to embankment.

Migration in search of livelihood is increasing. There are few incentives for the younger generation to stay in agriculture based livelihoods.

192 CHAPTER8

Navigating the Contours of the Pakistani Hazardscapes: Disaster Experience versus Policy

Fawad Khan and Daanish Mustafa „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Case Study Guidance Note

Country: Pakistan Location: Rawalpindi/Islamabad and Muzaffarabad (Pakistani Administered Kashmir) Date: May 2007 Sector and Spatial focus: Urban hazards, river basin, livelihoods, Disaster Risk Reduction, mountain hazards, floods, earthquake Title: Navigating the Contours of the Pakistani Hazardscapes: Disaster Experience versus Policy Bibliographical reference: Fawad Khan and Daanish Mustafa (2007), Navigating the Contours of the Pakistani Hazardscapes: Disaster Experience versus Policy

Abstract Pakistan, despite being the seventh most populous country in the world, has not been able to muster much international scholarly attention towards its galaxy of human-environment interaction related issues. Two contrasting cases are reviewed in this chapter, namely: Muzaffarabad earthquake affected areas and the Lai basin in Rawalpindi. While the primary hazards in case areas vary in cause, frequency and intensity, the comparison between disaster risk reduction approaches and their likely outcomes is very instructive. The catastrophic South Asian earthquake in 2005 attracted considerable international donor attention as well as a renewed focus on the part of the government of Pakistan and Pakistani civil society on natural hazards and their impacts on Pakistan’s developmental trajectory. All levels of actors involved in the relief and recovery effort have been employing targeted risk reduction measures in their rehabilitation activities. In the Lai basin, following a major flooding event in 2001, the banks of the river were cleared (at least partially) of structures and a flood early warning system was installed with support from the Japanese development cooperation (JICA). In addition, proposals have been floated to construct a major channel capable of diverting all flows into other basins and a major programme for canalisation and conversion of the Lai river bank into a highway has recently been announced.

Our analysis finds that besides the targeted risk reduction measures, there are systemic changes in Kashmir that have a much more profound and sustainable long-term effect on building resilience in the communities. Cellular mobile communication, expansion of

NAVIGATING THE THE CONTOURS CONTOURS OF THE OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI PAKISTANI NAVIGATING NAVIGATING DISASTER DISASTER EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCE VERSUS VERSUS POLICY POLICY financial services, road networks and civil society intervention will not only facilitate recovery but are likely to diversify livelihoods, build social capital and expand opportunities for basic services like health and education. Therefore, activities that are not considered to be part of focused DRR interventions may in fact lead to more sustained DRR, especially if the basis for these systemic changes is led by a business model rather than by policy alone. In Lai, the development policy that is an outcome of competing organisational and sectoral interests relegates DRR to a secondary objective. The resulting risk reduction proposals, despite high initial cost, lack a sustainable business model and are as likely to increase vulnerability as they are to reduce it. Surprisingly, solid waste emerges as the main hazard identified by the majority of the residents surveyed in the Lai Basin. The mortality and disease load from the unhygienic living conditions and contaminated drinking water around the Lai may actually be claiming more lives than the floods.

194 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY POLICY VERSUS VERSUS EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCE DISASTER DISASTER NAVIGATINGNAVIGATING PAKISTANI PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE OF THE CONTOURS CONTOURS THE THE

Technical Description Hazard/risk type: Flood, earthquake, landslide, water-borne diseases

Muzaffarabad city and the tehsil (county) of which the city is the headquarters essentially constitute a narrow river valley formed by the Jehlum and Neelum rivers. Besides the most recent earthquake hazard, historically the district has been exposed to riverine flooding, landslides and to a lesser extent forest fires and droughts. In addition, extreme cold spells in higher altitudes coupled with landslides have been major hazards for the rural inhabitants of the Muzaffarabad Tehsil. Some of the major past disaster events in Muzaffarabad were the great floods of 1992 and periodic slides blocking off the Jehlum and Neelum rivers. The most recent one occurred in 2007. A landslide partially blocked the Jhelum River and in the process killed twenty people in Muzaffarabad Tehsil. Such landslides also disrupt transportation and economic activities, and in the recent case of Jehlum jeopardised the ongoing earthquake recovery efforts.

The Lai Basin drains a total area of 244 km2 south of the Margalla hills, with 55 per cent of the watershed falling within the Islamabad Capital Territory and the remaining within the downstream Rawalpindi Municipal and Cantonment limits. Islamabad’s rapid growth is reducing surface permeability of the watershed, resulting in increased flood peaks downstream. The Lai Basin already receives most (90 %) of its river flows within a period of one and a half months. The current carrying capacity of the Lai is about 10,000 cusecs while the twenty-five year return period flood carries 35,000 cusecs of water causing inundation in the most densely populated areas of Rawalpindi. Climate change predictions of higher intensity storm events would exacerbate this situation. Similarly, Islamabad is in an accelerated process of developing new sectors in the upstream watershed, further reducing its absorption capacity. The combination of these factors is expected to significantly increase the flood peaks in the Lai. Population and economic growth along with the elitist planning of Islamabad is forcing the poorer population of the conurbation to inhabit the risk prone banks of the Lai, particularly because of its proximity to economic opportunities. Again, it is solid waste that has been identified as the main hazard by the majority of residents surveyed. This may be a more serious issue in terms of loss of life than the floods.

„ Type of assessment: Research on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Adaptation Strategies

Contextual Notes „ In both field study sites there are two different types of historical and contemporaneous conflicts. In the case of the Rawalpindi/Islamabad conurbation there has been jurisdictional and institutional conflict between upstream federal level institutions and downstream provincial and local institutions. In the case of Muzaffarabad there is the decades old conflict over sovereignty of the area between Pakistan and India leading to three wars between the now nuclear armed rivals. The most recent low intensity military conflict in Kashmir between the two countries lasted almost two decades, between 1986 and 2005.

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„ Role of displacement/relocation: The South Asia earthquake displaced millions of people and destroyed many settlements completely. There is a flux of internally displaced people within Pakistani administered Kashmir and in neighbouring Pakistan. While many who could afford it have migrated to other parts of Pakistan, the psychological trauma of involuntary migration and loss of place-based social networks continues to handicap even the relatively better-off migrants from staging a full recovery. In the Lai flood plain at least 19,000 households lie within the historic 100-year return flood plain with most of them having a tenuous legal status over their habitation. Any effective risk mitigation programme will have to include dignified and equitable arrangements for adaptation and rehabilitation/resettlement of many of these households. „ In both cases, there is an ongoing risk reduction effort underway. Some of these may have beneficial effects while the sustainability and effectiveness of others is questionable. In the case of the Kashmir earthquake, for example, the Pakistani authorities are putting excessive reliance on centralised decision making and standardised reconstruction protocols, which are often economically, culturally and socially inappropriate. The dominance of the military mindset on the reconstruction process, a reactive versus proactive and technocratic versus a mix of both technical and institutional approaches is a major challenge in the Kashmir context. Many of the same challenges also continue to haunt the disaster risk reduction initiatives in the Lai Basin. The military government of Pakistan has announced two of the most expensive public works projects in the history of Pakistan in the Lai Basin. The proposed construction of the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in the headwaters of the Lai without any consideration for the increased flood peaks that may be induce in downstream Rawalpindi is one such example of the short-sighted action. The proposed channelisation of the Lai and construction of an expressway along its bank with DRR as a partial justification in addition to development work is another example of a strategy that is likely to be ineffective at best and perhaps even counterproductive in the long run. „ There are significant historical, geographic, economic, political, or cultural issues that influenced the use of Community Vulnerability Analysis (CVA). The Muzaffarabad case study was undertaken in the context of the largest calamity and relief effort in the history of Pakistan. The Lai research was undertaken over a longer period before and after a major flooding event in 2001. NAVIGATING THE THE CONTOURS CONTOURS OF THE OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI PAKISTANI NAVIGATING NAVIGATING DISASTER DISASTER EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCE VERSUS VERSUS POLICY POLICY Research and Analytical Process: „ Methods/tools used: Shared learning dialogues, questionnaire surveys, secondary data analyses and literature reviews. „ Role of climate information. Climate scenarios were discussed with both communities and institutional actors. In both cases the likely climate change scenarios would increase the intensity and frequency of multiple hazards that both areas already face.

196 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY POLICY VERSUS VERSUS EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCE DISASTER DISASTER NAVIGATINGNAVIGATING PAKISTANI PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE OF THE CONTOURS CONTOURS THE THE

Key Insights Generated for Vulnerability Reduction and Capacity Enhancement: „ Direct support to DRR and adaptation: In Muzzafarabad the three main DRR interventions are seismic proof building design, training of masons and training of communities in rescues and relief. All three are useful but their sustainability is not ensured. Having only two housing designs (one conventional brick and mortar design and one for high altitude with local materials) is too restrictive. It is also not clear if the trainings of masons and communities will continue in the future. „ In the Lai Basin, DRR constitutes mega projects, which include diversion of half the tributaries and paving the banks with a two-lane expressway after channelising the river. The economic, social and environmental costs of these measures are very high and it is unclear how building a road along the river is going to reduce flooding. „ At the systems level a sea change of physical and social infrastructures has taken place in Muzaffarabad. Mobile phone and financial services are interventions that would bring long-term resilience and have good sustainability because they have a viable business model. The influx of a diverse institutional relief effort has supported the creation of social capital and better roads have increased access to health education as well as opportunities for more diversified livelihoods. „ The mega-projects in Lai do not address the wider underlying systemic causes of vulnerability. Despite being only a few kilometres from the capital, clean drinking water, sanitation and access to health and transport are some of the most important problems that the communities, especially women, have identified and have even ranked above the floods in some instances.

Potential Strategies Identified: In Muzaffarabad it is clear that the biggest return in terms of risk reduction and building resilience comes from changes to the supporting systemic infrastructure and that very little can be sustainably achieved from direct DRR interventions.

Focus on large infrastructure based measures is very expensive. One needs to evaluate a menu of structural and non-structural measures. Within the size of planned investments, a wide range of solutions becomes affordable. However, competing organisational mandates tend be affecting policies with lesser emphasis on the cost effectiveness of DRR.

Strategic Notes and Lessons Learned–Key Points to Emphasise: Systemic resilience is as important, if not more so, than targeted DRR interventions. Such changes, with a good business model, make them very sustainable. Policy driven initiatives within the broader development practice may give DRR second place when organisations compete for resources. In addition, sustainability is limited if mechanisms for maintenance are not well designed.

Keywords: Disaster Risk Reduction, urban hazards, flood hazards, mountain hazards, earthquake

Resource person(s): Fawad Khan ([email protected]) and Daanish Mustafa ([email protected])

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Two contrasting cases are reviewed in Introduction this paper, namely, Muzaffarabad earthquake affected areas and the Lai Basin1 in Rawalpindi. While the primary hazards in case areas vary in natural causes, frequency and intensity, the comparison between disaster risk reduction (DRR) approaches and their likely outcomes constitutes a greater challenge. In Muzaffarabad the targeted DRR interventions are not likely to have In spite of being the seventh most far-reaching impact, whereas the systemic populous country in the world Pakistan change in the underlying supporting has not been able to muster much environment, which is rooted in the private international scholarly attention sector rather than being policy driven, will towards its galaxy of human- potentially have very far-reaching and environment interactions related issues. sustainable DRR impacts. The Lai basin, on the other hand, represents a case where

| MAP 1 | Azad Kashmir and the earthquake affected areas very costly risk reduction measures are proposed and under implementation, however, but both their effectiveness and sustainability are doubtful.

The catastrophic South Asian earthquake of October 2005 attracted considerable international donor attention as well as a renewed focus on part of the government of Pakistan and Pakistani civil society on natural hazards and their impact on Pakistan’s developmental trajectory. Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani administered Kashmir, and its adjoining rural areas were hardest hit by the October 2005 earthquake (Map 1). Being located in one of the most highly militarised zones in the world the area had been cloaked in a

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY thick cover of secrecy as far as the outside world was concerned. While the earthquake was a case of incredible human suffering, the sheer scale of the crisis forced the government of Pakistan to open up this inaccessible area to national and international donors, civil society and governmental actors to facilitate relief and Data Source: Suparco, UN Cartographic Section, FRC reconstruction.

1 This spelling comes closest to the phonetic pronunciation of the name and is most widely used. Other spellings, e.g., Leh and Lei are also in use.

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The Muzaffarabad earthquake and its literature review driving the analyses, POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE aftermath has laid open a society that had followed by brief descriptions of the case been largely insulated from the outside study sites, major environmental hazards world providing opportunities for forensic affecting the study area, particularly in the examination of existing relationships and context of global climate change. Having changing them to reduce vulnerability and set up the context, the case study sets the exposing its pains. general vulnerability profile of the study areas along with a detailed discussion of The other hazardscape of Pakistan the methodology used to arrive at that provides insights into a much slower profile. Emerging from the discussion of process of change. The Lai Basin in the the vulnerability profile and the Institutional Rawalpindi-Islamabad conurbation offers methodology are the main points of structures are important lessons about the geography of leverage and possible disaster risk incompatible with exposure and vulnerability to flood hazard reduction measures that could fruitfully the geographical (Map 2). Lai’s story could be found in be used in the context of Muzaffarabad almost any metropolis in the developing Tehsil (county) and Lai Flood Basin in and spatial realities world including South Asia. At its heart is particular, and other risk prone areas in of the Lai Basin. a growing urban poor population in a general. The penultimate and concluding growing economy that is (mis)managed by sections of the case study offers some institutional structures incompatible with reflections on the process and the social and spatial realities. The Lai methodology of the case study and some hazard has strong natural and social concluding thoughts respectively. dimensions. On the one hand, Islamabad, the rapidly growing planned capital city of | MAP 2 | Rawalpindi Islamabad conurbation and the Lai watershed Pakistan in the upper reaches of the Lai watershed, is reducing surface permeability resulting in increased flood peaks downstream. On the otherhand, climate change forecasts predict a greater number of intense precipitation events during the monsoon season when the Lai River carries most of its flow. Population and economic growth along with the elitist planning of Islamabad is forcing the poorer population of the conurbation to inhabit the risk prone banks of Lai, particularly because of its proximity to economic opportunities. This study therefore responds to the demand for urgent research and generation of knowledge on the hazard-society interface in the context of international donors and development agencies investing sizeable resources in the many complex recovery and reconstruction operations across the globe.

In the following sections we briefly outline the conceptual approach based on a

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intensity of loss suffered by hazards Conceptual Approach victims. Researchers within this tradition have been concerned with the political economic contexts that define differential vulnerability (Watts, 1983; Wisner, 1993; Blaikie et. al., 1994; Mustafa, 1998, 2002; Pelling, 2003b). Vulnerability here is understood to be susceptibility to suffer damage from environmental extremes and the relative inability to recover from the damage. The case study draws its intellectual capital from the hazards research The conceptual approach of this case tradition within human geography. The study combines the insights of the two research tradition moves away from a hazards research traditions within focus on physical extremes and defines human geography described above and them as phenomena arising at the uses the integrative concept of a confluence of physical extremes and ‘hazardscape’ to apprehend the Different stakeholders vulnerable human populations complexities of vulnerability, disaster within a hazardscape (Mustafa, 1998). This approach within response and recovery. The term have varying levels of human geography pioneered by the hazardscape as proposed by Mustafa social power and there American geographer Gilbert White (2005) suggests that vulnerability profiles and what is done to mitigate is often a clash of ideas and his students has spawned multiple intellectual perspectives to engage with hazards in specific geographic localities between them. hazards. The human ecological are the outcome of the various tradition that White came to be most stakeholders’ perceptions regarding the closely associated with, posits that root causes of disasters and their beyond engineering approaches to cultural and institutional biases on what controlling the impact of physical to do about them. Different stakeholders extremes attention must be paid to the within a hazardscape have varying role of perception in influencing levels of social power and clash of ideas individual and collective behaviour to between them spawn the material hazards (White, 1945; Kates and configuration of hazardscape. This Burton, 1986; Whyte, 1986). Human perspective highlights the importance of ecologists are further concerned about perceptions of all stakeholders and how the role of perceptions in limiting the varying social power of stakeholders can

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY theoretically infinite range of choice create obstacles and opportunities for and propose that scientific inquiry and social actors to pursue policy level and democratic debates are the key to community level interventions. In other expanding the ‘practical range of words, the points of leverage for choice’ in the face of hazards (Wescoat, reducing risk and vulnerability or 1987; 1992). encouraging adaptation to changing hazard conditions including those Hazards researchers have further imposed by climate change. This moved on to focus on socially conceptual approach points toward the determined vulnerability as a key need for shared learning processes in variable affecting the distribution and order to bridge the perceptual, political

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and other gaps among stakeholders. In implications and its potentially unique POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE this case, we have approached the policy implications for development in challenge of developing shared, general. Within human geography reflexive learning processes through the much of what is considered to be use of Shared Learning Dialogues within the ambit of DRR in the policy (SLDs) to facilitate a two way flow of circles is called vulnerability mitigation. information between the researchers Vulnerability mitigation as discussed and research subjects to understand by assorted hazards researchers (e.g., each others’ perspectives. Blaikie et. al., 1994; Hewitt, 1997; Wisner, 2003; Mustafa, 2005) may Topically the case study and the involve the same suite of policy methodology used were driven by a interventions in various sectors as DRR. concern with clarification of the In the following case study much of the increasingly used concept of DRR, methodological and vulnerability perceptions of DRR amongst different discussions will be informed by the stakeholders, its operational above conceptual approach.

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purpose of the SLDs was to initiate a Shared Learning Dialogue longer-term research and sharing agenda and also to validate the findings and Cognate Methodologies of the earlier research conducted a few years after the major flood of 2001.

At the time of writing, only one round of SLDs has been completed and the real benefits or costs of the SLD process itself and the implementation strategies it was used to identify need to be assessed after A series of SLDs were undertaken based a few more rounds. The methodology for on a stakeholder analysis by the partners the vulnerability analysis consisted of a in DfID funded research on disaster risk series of SLDs but we confronted reduction in South Asia in 2006. Key considerable difficulty in implementing representatives of the organisations it at the field level while experiencing involved with disaster response, more success in policy level SLDs management and wider developmental guided by higher-level staff. SLDs are meant for efforts in Pakistan in general and with the exchange of field site in particular were consulted. Where the field level was concerned, information rather The insights are arranged under the three training workshops and detailed discussions were held with the field than extracting it. sub-heads of government, non- governmental organisations (NGOs), and study teams to sensitise them to the national and international donor ethos and techniques involved in agencies. In the latter part of the narrative conducting successful SLDs. Some of the the organisations and the outcomes of the salient points were the following: interviews with their representatives are woven together with the key overarching „ SLDs are meant for exchange of themes that emerged from the SLDs and information rather than extracting it. the interviews. „ The field team must operate within a non-hierarchical structure with open SLDs were also used as the basic research channels for articulating dissent and tool in communities. ISET and its partners clarifying information. developed a semi-structured interview „ Field teams must not passively format for exchanging information and depend upon the more specialised insights with local groups. It was topical specialists to hand them

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY translated into Urdu by PIEDAR and pre- down information, or worse orders to tested with several inhabitants be implemented and/or used as interviewed in the streets of Rawalpindi guidelines. Instead, the field teams by the Field Team Leader under the should be active learners engaged in observation of an ISET Research constant communication with the Associate. Later it was used by each of the topical specialists in addition to enumerators on other trial audiences reading and researching the issues of under the observation of the Field Team concern for the SLDs. Leader. Two field sites were chosen and „ Communities and the institution SLDs took place in Jhanda Chaichi and based research subjects must be Aarya Mohalla along the Lai. The approached in a spirit of mutual

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respect for their subjectivity and in a The key insight on SLDs was that its POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE spirit of learning as well as sharing success and failure, like most things in information. life depends upon who is doing it. „ Contextual local knowledge can be Perhaps the methodology is best enriched with expert knowledge and implemented by more highly trained vice-versa. Neither type of people than the field team members. knowledge must be reified. SLDs In fact, perhaps even the field team should be directed towards model is not suitable for implementing achieving such a balance. SLDs – the process cannot be delegated „ The interaction between local and down by researchers. The researchers expert knowledge could and should with a view of the research problem yield actionable suggestions, in our and its context ought to be doing it case–for mitigating vulnerability, themselves. identifying institutional, cultural, and social points of leverage for In the absence of results of expected policy interventions and for quality from the SLD process greater clarifying the social and perhaps reliance, in the context of the Lai Basin, even economic benefits and costs of had to be placed on data collected by different courses of action. other means in the basin. The Contextual local „ The implementation of SLDs must methodology was based on household knowledge can be be thoroughly documented without level interviews of residents that are enriched with expert filtering information or various steps affected by the Lai floods and other knowledge and vice- in conducting fieldwork. issues. A few community group dialogues to share information and versa. Despite our efforts, the first round of triangulate the results complemented SLDs were more of classic focus groups this. A household-level survey of 158 with the field team interacting with the households and businesses was research subjects in an extractive mode conducted in the Lai Basin during the rather than an information sharing summer of 2002. The review of mode. The field reports also lacked in documents and interviews with the type of richness and nuance policymakers was undertaken in the expected from SLDs. In terms of the summer of 2003 expectations from the team, the SLDs were conceptualised with the In the former part of the research understanding that they would be availability of financial and human implemented by individuals with resources was the main limiting factor substantial exposure to the core in the number of household concepts of hazards and vulnerability. questionnaires administered. Eighty In addition, as with most processes for per cent of the respondents were from community-based development, the the Rawalpindi Municipal area, and 85 ability to listen to and respect of the total respondents were women. perspectives emerging from different The sampling frame for the research populations (from local villagers to constituted the approximately 20,000 policy makers) was assumed. Finding households in the flood plain of the Lai staff with such capabilities proved (JICA, 2002). The sampling technique difficult. was based on convenience sampling with the willingness of the potential

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interviewees to be included in the The group meetings were held in the survey as the key deciding factor. neighborhoods of Khayaban-e-Sir Syed, Gharibabad, Safdarabad, and Furthermore, geographical spread of Katarian and lasted up to three hours. the respondents was also a very critical The group meetings were meant to factor. A minimum of five triangulate the findings of the questionnaires was administered in all questionnaire survey and provide an the major flood affected neighborhoods opportunity to the participants of the of the twin cities. The survey results group meetings to collectively reflect therefore represent a diversity of on their experiences as well as neighborhoods from the head reaches brainstorm on possible solutions to of the watershed down to the tail end. the problems associated with the Lai. Referrals from people already included The meeting in Safdarabad had 20 in the survey in the pattern of snowball female and two males, the others sampling within neighborhoods were meetings had between 10 and 15 also used to identify potential survey participants with the third of the respondents. participants being females. Facilitators worked with some small Group meetings were The interviews were conducted by both groups on priority ranking of meant to triangulate the researchers and two hired community problems and potential the findings of the enumerators, one male and one female, solutions. The questionnaire sought who were locals of the city of basic household information from the questionnaire survey Rawalpindi. The interviews generally respondents and the damage they and provide an took between half an hour and two suffered in the 2001 floods. In opportunity for the hours depending on the level of addition, we sought information participants to engagement that the interviewee wanted regarding the sources and type of collectively reflect on to have. Although, the questionnaires relief and recovery aid received, their their experiences as were used to structure the conversations perception of the required types of well as brainstrom on and to prompt the respondents, the relief and recovery aid, their survey participants were at liberty to expectations of help from various possible solutions to explore and discuss linkages that they institutions in future disasters, the problems deemed relevant. descriptions of the government’s role associated with the Lai. in managing flood hazard, and the Five group meetings in the Lai Basin actions they have taken to prevent complemented the questionnaire survey. against damage from future flooding. NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY

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who, under pressure from invading POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE Muzaffarabad Case Study Pakistani tribesmen, decided to sign the instrument of accession to the state of India against the likely wishes of his Muslim subjects. Pakistan and India both fought a war in 1948 over the territory culminating in the UN Security Council Resolution on August 13th, 1948 ordering a ceasefire for immediate cessation of hostilities and separating the combatants by a Cease Fire Line, which was later Background converted into the Line of Control. The resolution also recognised the right of The city of Muzaffarabad is the capital self-determination of Kashmiri people of the Pakistani Administered Kashmir, through a plebiscite under the better known in Pakistan as Azad (free) supervision of international observers Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) (Map 1).2 It is (Lamb, 1991). Such a plebiscite was never a mountainous city at the confluence of held. Pakistan and India continue to Azad Kashmir is one of the rivers Jehlum and Neelam (also administer their respective parts of the most highly known as Kishen Ganga in the Indian Kashmir to the west and east of the Line militarised regions in administered Kashmir). Azad Kashmir of Control (Map 1). is one of the most highly militarised the world defining a regions in the world defining a major The AJK region is of particular interest major international international political fault line because of the catastrophic earthquake political fault line between India and Pakistan. Kashmir, of October 8th, 2005, and the largest between India and in effect, is a part of an unfinished relief, recovery and reconstruction Pakistan. agenda of the independence of the operations in the history of South Asia in Indian Subcontinent in 1947. The the earthquake’s aftermath. Multiple dispute over ownership of the territory actors from the most powerful, e.g., the of Kashmir between India and Pakistan Pakistani military, the military has led to three full-scale wars and a dominated Earthquake Reconstruction limited war in 1999 in Kargil and and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), numerous other smaller and proxy wars international donors and the United along the Line of Control (Butalia, 2005). Nations System, to the less influential Government of AJK and a host of The division of India in 1947 was based national and international NGOs and on areas under direct British rule. Semi- civil society groups have been at play independent princely states within with their competing visions, strategies, British India were, however, not part of institutional cultures, epistemic the scheme and their rulers were free to perspectives and resources in the join one dominion or the other, i.e. India reconstruction and rehabilitation or Pakistan. Kashmir had a Muslim process. The case study draws on the majority populace but a Hindu ruler ongoing experience of disaster recovery

2 We will refer to the region as Azad Kashmir for the sake of convenience and since that is the official name of the region. The use of the nomenclature must not be interpreted as affirmation of any allegiance to the Pakistani position on the Kashmir dispute.

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Farmers in Muzaffarabad City

© F Khan

Remittances are an and reconstruction to draw lessons are similar to Pakistan’s average, important source of about DRR with reference to a wider however, geographically contiguous income and account suite of environmental hazards in a North Western Frontier Province climate change future. (NWFP) is somewhat less developed for approximately one than Kashmir and also lags in gender quarter of household The total population of AJK, according parity. Pakistan’s average household consumption to the 1998 Census is 2.97 million and income is about Rs. 80,000 per annum expenditure in AJK. the Planning and Development according to PIHS (2002), which is 20% Department of Azad Kashmir estimated lesser than AJK’s. the population in 2002 to be 3.27 million with a gender ratio of 101 males Total area under cultivation in Azad against 100 females. In terms of religion Kashmir is roughly 170,787 hectares,

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY 99% of the population is Muslim. The about 12.8% of the total area of the literacy rate has been reported at 55% in state. According to the agricultural 1998 Census but estimated to be 60% in census of 1990, the average farm size in 2002 by Planning and Development Azad Kashmir is only 1.2 hectare, half Department sources. The average of which is generally cultivated. The annual household income was area under fruit cultivation is around estimated at Rs. 101,900 (US $ 1676.5).3 14,460 hectares while the area All these figures except average controlled by the Forest Department is household incomes and literacy rates the Planning and Development about

3 Based on a conversion rate of US $ 1 = PKRs 60.78.

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566,969 hectares, 42.6% of the total Government of Pakistan (GoP) POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE geographical area. Gradually the maintains a strong administrative and industrial base in Azad Kashmir is military control over the state. Azad growing as 915 industrial units of Kashmir’s foreign policy, defense and different scales are in place which currency are under the direct control of includes textile mills, paper mills, food Pakistan. AJK Council, an appointed production units, steel mills and flour supreme administrative body with a mills (personal communication, singular majority representation from Planning and Development Department the government of AJK, manages of Azad Kashmir, 2002). financial matters (budgeting and taxation affairs) for the state instead of In terms of livelihood, remittances are an the Central Board of Revenue of important source of income and account Pakistan. Given the military sensitivity for approximately one quarter of of the area, the Pakistani military, household consumption expenditure in however, continues to be the strongest AJK. For most recipients, remittances are actor in AJK. The traditionally strong a primary source of income and in many role of the military in most spheres of cases the only source. In Azad Kashmir, public life within AJK has been further remittances to households account on reinforced by the semi-military nature average for 25.1% of total households’ of the GoP since 1999. The defense monthly income (HPG, 2006). Out driven insulation of the area from the migration of men to cities mainly for influence of national and international casual work and menial jobs especially civil society actors, NGOs, during winter is very common in Azad telecommunications companies (the Kashmir. According to the Prime Pakistan Army’s Special Around 200,000 Minister’s Secretariat of Azad Jammu Communications Organisation (SCO) Kashmiris work in the and Kashmir around 200,000 Kashmiris being the telecommunications Middle East, while work in the Middle East, while about monopoly in AJK) was to have adverse about 500,000 people, 500,000 people, particularly from consequences for the relief and recovery Mirpur and Kotli districts, are settled in operations in the aftermath of the particularly from the United Kingdom or elsewhere (South biggest disaster in South Asia. Mirpur and Kotli Asia Disaster Report, 2005). districts, are settled in the United Kingdom or In terms of access to services in AJK, the Natural and Climate Hazards elsewhere. percentage of the population provided with piped water facility is 77% in Muzaffarabad city and the tehsil of urban and 62% in rural areas which the city is the headquarters respectively. Apart from urban areas, essentially constitute a narrow river 88% villages have been electrified. valley formed by Jehlum and Neelum Health sector gives a dismal picture rivers. Besides the most recent though as the ratio of doctors per earthquake hazard, historically the thousand population of only 0.1 district has been exposed to riverine indicates. flooding, land slides and to a lesser extent forest fires and droughts. In Although AJK is considered to be addition extreme cold spells in higher politically, constitutionally and altitudes coupled with landslides have geographically a separate state, been major hazards for the rural

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frequent loss of life because of people

© F Khan getting swept away by swollen mountain streams as they try to cross them on their way to and from low lying market towns, or other villages. Very few of the numerous mountain streams have bridges built on them, and even when present, they are not safe or well maintained.

One of the more dramatic consequences of extreme rainfall event is mass wasting they trigger. The landslides in extreme circumstances can directly sweep away View of Muzaffarabad City houses and communities but more often isolates remote communities from supplies, educational institutions and medical facilities located in the market towns. This last consequence is Rain induced inhabitants of the Muzaffarabad Tehsil. particularly important for pregnant landslides are further Some of the major past disaster events in women where inability to access accentuated by the Muzaffarabad were the great floods of medical services during deliveries may 1992 and periodic slides blocking off contribute to high mortality rates. Our deforested and Jehlum and Neelum rivers. The most SLDs with the communities confirmed denuded hill sides recent one occurred in 2007. A this fact, as they too perceived where it is not unusual landslide partially blocked the Jhelum landslides as the greatest concern. The to see houses and River and in the process caused death rain induced landslide is further communities perched of twenty people in Muzaffarabad accentuated by the deforested and on what seem like Tehsil. Such landslide also disrupts denuded hillsides, where it is not impossibly steep transportation and economic activities, and in the recent case of Jehlum slopes. jeopardised the ongoing recovery efforts. © F Khan Of the climatically driven hazards, floods and extreme rains have

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY historically caused the most damage. Although, usual monsoonal flooding does cause inundation damage periodically to low lying parts of Muzaffarabad city, it rarely inundates rural Muzaffarabad, where because of the paucity of flat land there is an inverse relationship between the relative affluence of a community and its altitude. The high altitude Traditional transport in AJK communities do, however, suffer

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unusual to see houses and communities POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE

perched on what seem like impossibly © F Khan steep slopes. Higher than usual snowfall in the Muzaffarabad Tehsil during winters often leads to impacts similar to extreme rainfall events of the monsoon. Communities can often be cut off from the rest of the world with serious consequences, again particularly for pregnant women, the sick, the elderly and the children.

In addition to the above major hazards, forest fires in some remote higher altitude forests are part of the forest Temporary school for earthquake victims regeneration cycle in the area. Because of relatively higher population densities and at times overgrazing of forest floors there is just not enough fuel for forest fires left in locations closer to human suggests issues in construction quality The government has habitations. But forest fires in more and standards whereby 17,000 school not tallied data on remote locations do cause damage to the buildings and hospitals made by the casualties from the shelters of migrant goat herder (Gujjars). government collapsed killing many earthquake by gender Occasionally forest fires can come close children (EERI, 2006). to some market towns and cause and/or age revealing a damage in some secondary market The damage figures for the earthquake lack of concern with towns of AJK. are revealing in terms of what they do these as a drivers of not have. We searched at length for the vulnerability in post fatality, and major and minor injury disaster planning and Patterns of Vulnerability figures disaggregated by gender by the programming. 2005 earthquake. We found that the lead The patterns of vulnerability to the agency for the earthquake relief and hazards discussed above can partially reconstruction, with supposedly the best be surmised from the damage figures of access to data did not have gender the 2005 earthquake. Similar patterns of disaggregated numbers. This limitation vulnerability are present in relation to is partially because concern of the lead most hazards. A brief review of the agency was with aggregate numbers earthquake damage figures will with respect to the compensation owed illustrate the point about the differential to the families. The AJK Government had vulnerability of the women, children announced a certain amount of and the elderly. Numbers indicate that compensation for those who had urban population was particularly suffered a death in the family as a result vulnerable to the earthquake. The of the earthquake or had suffered an common rounded stone or brick injury. masonry with weak mortar and no seismic detailing could not withstand The government was evidently not the earthquake. Anecdotal evidence also concerned whether the victim was man,

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woman or a child, it just wanted to Some non-governmental organisations know how many dead and injured and did, however, undertake spot surveys hence how much it owed. The based on large enough samples, with government has not tallied the sufficient randomness and aggregate data by gender and or age geographical coverage that could be revealing a lack of concern with age used to project the proportions of and gender as a driver of vulnerability earthquake victims by gender and age. in post disaster planning and One such random survey of refugee programming. This institutional population in camps all over the invisibility of women, children and the earthquake affected areas was elderly, let alone by class/caste, e.g., conducted by the ‘Center for Research the lower class Gujjars versus higher on Poverty Reduction and Income class Rajput could, in reality, be a Distribution’ (CRPRID, 2006)4 , a semi- driver of vulnerability. governmental research organisation. Based on the study one can make | FIGURE 1 | Fatalities by gender and age group following observations about the 60 pattern of vulnerability during the earthquake. 50

40 Overall number of males and females among killed were almost the same 30 (male 51%, female 49%). There was

Percentage 20 substantially higher proportion of males (64%) among the seriously 10 injured, though females (53%) had a 0 higher proportion among those with 0-4 yrs 05-24 yrs 25-49 yrs 50 & above Age Group minor injuries. When disaggregated by Male Female age, the pattern of vulnerability by gender starts falling into a sharp relief. | FIGURE 2 | Serious injuries disaggregated by gender and age Figure 1 presents the fatalities figures disaggregated by gender and age. More 70 to the point and somewhat 60 mysteriously5 , among pre-school 50 children 68% of the fatalities were male. Among the school and college going 40 children and young adults in ages 30 NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY between 5-24 years, 55% of the fatalities Percentage 20 were male, perhaps indicating a higher proportion of male enrollment in 10 schools. Incidentally casualties were 0 0-4 yrs 05-24 yrs 25-49 yrs 50 & above higher because school buildings had Age Group collapsed. In the married and Male Female

4 They used a much more liberal definition of a camp than the government-they defined any group of ten or more tents as a camp, which is more liberal than the threshold of 40 that the government used to define a camp. 5 Male births and deaths are generally documented more readily than in case of women. This sometimes attributed to the patriarchal systems that determine inheritance and common property rights by the number of male family members.

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productive age group of 25-49 years of The SLDs however, revealed a POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE age an overwhelming 69% of the somewhat different perception of fatalities were female. This figure vulnerability on part of the urban and indicates the gender roles within the rural communities in Muzaffarabad society that keep women limited to Tehsil. Both the urban and rural indoor domestic tasks and hence more communities reported children as the exposed to building collapse. This most vulnerable segment of the observation is also confirmed by population, which at least in the context Mahmood (2007) who reports that of the of the fatalities and serious injuries 252,073 individuals surveyed by experienced in the 2005 earthquake is Population Council in assorted refugee not true. The emotional appeal of camps in the earthquake zone 53% of children getting hurt perhaps accounted the orphans had lost their mothers, as for this perception, and also that many opposed to 43% who had lost their of the traumatised children who fathers and 4% who had lost both their reportedly suffered acute symptoms of parents. And finally an equal trauma were a constant reminder to the proportion of home bound males and community of how vulnerable–at least females among the middle age and emotionally–that segment of the senior citizen community were dead. population was. Only one of the eight The elderly did, however, suffer groups with which SLDs were held in In the married and disproportionately–more than twice as Muzaffarabad Tehsil–and that too of productive age group much as their numbers in the rural women–thought that women of 25-49 years of age population. According to Mahmood constituted the more vulnerable group. an overwhelming 69% (2007) people above the age of 50 Also, only one of the SLD groups, or constituted no more than 9% of the urban men reported the elderly to be a of the fatalities were population in the earthquake affected noticeably more vulnerable population. female. area. Another group that surprisingly On the serious injury side, however, the emerged as vulnerable was the middle proportions are almost equal between and lower middle class. Part of this males and females across all age groups vulnerability was by virtue of the fact except among the fifty and above group, that much of the lower middle class has where females constitute about 27% of socially moved upwards from a working the seriously injured populace. Figure 2 class based on remittances income. But describes the seriously injured populace in the aftermath of the earthquake many disaggregated by gender and age. There of them had to come back to take care of are no observations to report in the 0-04 their injured or homeless family year category, possibly because of the members but then could not leave lower survivability of this age group because there was either nobody to take and probably also because fatalities care of the remaining family or because were under reported. Overall among of the extended stay in Pakistan they the females the age group straddling the had lost their overseas jobs as the married and school going age (5-24 following comments shows: years) had the highest serious injury rate. This high injury rate could I was working in Saudi Arabia and on partially be a function of the higher hearing the news of the earthquake I survivability of this age group. rushed back to check on my family

211 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

members. But I cannot go back from members working overseas, because I have to care for my elderly sometimes in OPEC countries. Another parents. I have lost my job and it is 40% have jobs in either AJK or Pakistan, hard for me to make ends meet. mostly Army or Government. And about (Aslam Kasbi, a Muzaffarabad city SLD 40% relied entirely on Agriculture and participant, April 23rd, 2007)6 these were the most affected people because of the damage to land and The lower middle class also emerged livestock. Most of these better off people attitudinally vulnerable. They did not moved down country to Pakistan and get access to relief aid as the following 50% of the respondents were seriously quote illustrates: considering it. The poorest 10% were ‘staying put’ and were the most We are respectable people. We cannot vulnerable among the surveyed stand in the queue to get food from population. the camp. I would prefer it if aid were provided at the ward (neighborhood) level so that everyone could get it in a Ongoing and Prospective dignified way. Strategies for DRR The elderly did, (Chalu Shah, a Muzaffarabad city SLD however, suffer participant, April 23rd 2007) Even with limited understanding of disproportionately- DRR most stakeholders are working This theme of the class relations being towards implementing DRR strategies. more than twice as reversed recurred many times during Western designed seismic proof much as the rest of the the SLDs. Most people perceived that building seems to be the top priority. population. well-off people had turned paupers and With all the problems of bringing such poor people had turned affluent in the technology to the area ERRA, which aftermath of the earthquake. Although, coordinates all the reconstruction we believe that this perception might be activities has mandated that all a little exaggerated but there was some construction with government funding truth to the fact that many absolutely must follow a single (and then later a poor people, particularly from the second) design. Use of this single design highlands had gained access to cash and has been very restrictive. Strategies for resources that they had never had in the adoption of the design in longer term past while many relatively better off have not yet been devised. Moreover, families had lost whatever assets they many people in anticipation of a cold had. This is not so much a reflection on winter had already started construction

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY the efficiency or effectiveness of the relief ahead of any instruction from ERRA. and rehabilitation process as it is of the Many other organisations, mostly civil social context (desperate poverty) that society, started DRR with training characterises the area. masons for better construction.

A post-earthquake rapid participatory Another common strategy among the assessment of AJK by Food and NGOs has been training communities in Agriculture Organisation (2005), 20 % of rescue and relief activities. This would the best-off families receive remittances help the trained communities in

6 All names quoted are fictitious to protect the identity of the individuals interviewed.

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unintended, have however been POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE massive.

First, the cellular phone companies were for the first time allowed to operate in the area to support the relief activities. Such accessible and affordable communication is immensely useful in early warning and is unparalleled in supporting commercial and social networks, in addition to opening up a previously closed society to diverse experiences. Economic and social diversification is expected to build sustainable resilience where economic diversification was confined by restricted communication justified by Sikh relief camp set up in security considerations. Muslim praying area

© F Khan Another significant change in the area was the immediate expansion of formal financial services necessitated by the response to a large disaster. disbursement of compensation through Sustainability of this measure has once transparent channels. Identity cards again not been clearly thought through. and banks accounts have become Community based, voluntary or semi ubiquitous in a region where most public rescue systems based on models financial transactions were informal such as the Edhi foundation need to be and even the foreign remittance were devised in the future to make them made through the traditional ‘hundi’ sustainable and also attend to other system that relied on personal contact more frequent risks such as landslides and trust, thus limiting its ability to and floods. build resilience at scale. This mass enrollment into formal systems can Beyond these very basic responses to potentially lead to micro-credit and risk reduction there was little evidence insurance. of other measures for risk-reduction. Just like Lai the lack of financial Third, due to the scale of the disaster, services were conspicuous by their Muzaffarbad saw one of the largest absence. relief efforts in the history in Pakistan. Scores of aid agencies, multi-national, The preliminary SLDs conducted in national and local civil society Muzaffarabad and Lai at institutional organisations joined hands with the levels did not show appreciation for military in an earnest effort to help the many of the underlying systemic factors people of AJK (including some that are research suggests contribute both to risk classified as terrorist organisations by reduction and adaptive capacity. the larger world community). Such Changes at this level, mostly institutional diversification was

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unprecedented in Kashmir’s history. and probably will have an impact on Most relief was provided through access to social services. The concerted effort of the government, civil international relief effort has also society and international community increased the provision of these through community participation. services across AJK.

Finally, the largest relief effort in The expansion is likely to contribute Conceptually, the Pakistan lead to improvement of the substantially to diversification of strengthening of transportation and road networks in livelihood systems in the region. The Kashmir. Increased accessibility has systems are also likely to improve communications and resulted in economic diversification other forms of social capacity that other systems mitigate risks–for example through represents a much the role improved communications larger contribution to provides as a basis for social DRR and adaptive networks. Conceptually, the capacity than the direct strengthening of such systems represents a much larger contribution measures most to DRR and adaptive capacity than organisations classify the direct measures most as DRR. organisations classify as DRR. Many such systems are self-sustaining. Improvements in communication and financial services, for example, are based on strong business models that are independent of development aid or external support. They were also catalysed more by policy changes and local demand than by direct public sector investment. As a result, the benefits of such systemic

Boys outside a relief camp improvements for DRR are almost

© F Khan certain to far outweigh the costs. NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY

214 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

residents in Rawalpindi and the POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE Lai Flood Basin Case Study remaining in Islamabad (GOP 2000). The conurbation is an important economic and transportation node connecting southern and eastern Pakistan with the Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir (Pakistani Administered Kashmir), and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). As the capital of Pakistan, Islamabad has all of the administrative structure of the federal Background government, while Rawalpindi is the headquarters of the Pakistan Army, the most important institution in Pakistan. Substantial debates are currently occurring regarding how to reduce the The history of the twin cities offers some risks associated with flooding in the Lai interesting comparisons that are Basin. Following a major flooding event relevant to understanding the in 2001, the banks of the river were geography of exposure and cleared (at least partially) of structures vulnerability to flood hazard in the and a flood early warning system was conurbation. In the pre-independence installed with support from Japanese era, Rawalpindi was the headquarters development cooperation (JICA). In of the British Indian Army’s Northern addition, proposals have been floated to Command, the largest of the British construct a major channel capable of Indian Army Commands in United diverting all flows into other basins. Cost India. The Pakistan Army inherited the and opposition from inhabitants in other site as its headquarters in the post- basins have limited implementation of independence days. The military this. In addition, to these disaster risk dominates the social and economic life specific proposals, a major programme in the city, with more than fifty per cent for channelisation and conversion of the of the jobs being associated directly or Lai riverbed into a highway has recently indirectly with the armed forces. Overall been announced. This is often portrayed 64 % of those employed in the city hold as reducing disaster risk as well as jobs in the public sector, 36 % are in the increasing transportation–but the private sector, and 23 % are self- scientific basis for this is questionable. As employed (JICA 2003). There are really discussed below, the local perceptions of two cities within the legal boundaries of risk and potential strategies for reducing Rawalpindi city: the Rawalpindi the hazards associated with flooding only cantonment, administered by the partially match with the proposals Rawalpindi Cantonment Board (RCB) currently being floated. If the intensity of under the Ministry of Defense, and the extreme climate events increases as city of Rawalpindi, governed by the projections suggest will occur as climatic civilian-elected Tehsil Municipal conditions change, hazards in the Lai Administration (TMA). The cantonment Basin will increase as well. lies on a higher ridge on the western edge of the Rawalpindi city and is The Rawalpindi/Islamabad conurbation relatively safe from Lai floods, except in is the fifth most populous urban area in the southern most part of the basin. Pakistan with a combined population of Rawalpindi city, on the other hand, is 2.1 million, with 1.5 million of the

215 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

highly exposed to flooding from the Lai may be the poster child for the high Basin. The 100-year flood inundation modernist ideology inherent to ‘seeing zone of the Lai is primarily occupied by like a state’ (Scott, 1998), the state lower middle-class and working-class institutions operating within the Lai neighborhoods. Basin also manifest what Dove and Kammen (2001) call disconnect between The Lai Basin drains a total area of 244 the fluid and diverse ‘vernacular models km2 south of the Margalla hills, with 55 of development’ and the ‘official models of % of the watershed falling within the development.’ Bureaucratic objectives are Islamabad Capital Territory and the disconnected and uncoordinated: the remaining portion within the Sanitation Directorate of the CDA is downstream Rawalpindi Municipal and preoccupied with solid and liquid waste Cantonment limits (Map 2). The stream disposal, while the Relief Commissioner of has five major tributaries: Saidpur Kas, Rawalpindi focuses solely on floods. The Kanitanwali Kas, Tenawali Kas, messy interlinkages between issue areas, Bedranwali Kas, and Niki Lai, in addition although widely recognised, do not and to twenty other minor tributaries. The supposedly must not distract the public maximum length of the Lai from servants from their assigned tasks. beginning to its final confluence with the The assorted Soan River does not exceed 45 km, thereby Lying upstream, Islamabad is a stakeholder institutions allowing very little time for any flood preplanned modern city. Its grid pattern within the Lai Basin warning in its middle reaches within the with wide, tree-lined boulevards and display all the Rawalpindi municipal limits. relatively low urban density, presents a sharp contrast to the mostly curving, specialised The institutional hazardscape of the Lai narrow streets of its older neighbor, bureaucratic structures is characterised by multiple, fragmented Rawalpindi. A Greek architect, and disciplinary jurisdictions. At the macro-scale, the Constantinos A. Doxiadis, designed backgrounds, from upper basin is under the federally lslamabad and brought many of the public administrator to controlled Capital Development principles of modernist-militarist Authority (CDA) and its various architecture to his design of Islamabad civil engineers, directorates, e.g. for water supply, and to the other towns, university particular to a sanitation, and environmental campuses, and buildings he planned modernist state management. The middle basin falls throughout Pakistan and the rest of the apparatus. under the Rawalpindi TMA as well as world (Spaulding, 1996). According to the provincially-controlled Rawalpindi Spaulding (1996), Doxiadis was an Development Authority (RDA). The lower idealist who planned the city based on his basin is again under federally controlled conceptions of what an ideal modern city Rawalpindi and Chaklala Cantonment should look like rather than the material NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY Boards (RCB and CCB) and their various reality of how the urban geography of departments. The assorted stakeholder Islamabad might be experienced and lived institutions within the Lai Basin display by its inhabitants. European concepts of all the specialised bureaucratic structures social class and distinctions based on civil and disciplinary backgrounds, from service rank are written into the Islamabad public administrator to civil engineers, Master Plan, and manifest themselves particular to a modernist state apparatus. poignantly in the geography of the city Where Islamabad’s urban geography (Meier, 1985).7

7 By the European sense we mean the relatively recognizable division of economic classes in the industrialised societies of Europe, e.g., the working class, the petit bourgeoisie, the bourgeoisie, and the ruling classes (Also see Gramsci, 1971)

216 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Idealistic urban planning did not change calamity caused eighty-four fatalities and POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE social and environmental realities, but destroyed 1,000 houses (NEC, 2002). rather exacerbated them. Doxiadis projected that the lowest ranking The physical location of Islamabad government servants would reside in creates special problems for Rawalpindi working-class neighborhoods, while the downstream. Islamabad was designed poorest of the poor – garbage collectors, with very little regard for the hydrology street sweepers, housemaids, beggars, and geomorphology of the basin in which and day laborers – did not figure in it is located. The decreased water Doxiadis’ plans. His idealism, played out absorption capacity of an expanding on sketches, diagrams, and scale models, Islamabad further accentuates flood overlooked the impact that local peaks downstream, in addition to topography had on the social geography reducing the ground water recharge upon of the absolute poor in the city. It is little which much of Rawalpindi’s poorer surprise, then, that wherever the population depends for water supply topography dips below the putative plain (Malik, 2000). Clearly, from Doxiadis’ of human habitation, by the banks of the reality of a scale model of Islamabad, to tributaries of the Lai, one finds unplanned the hydrology of the Lai, to the social shantytowns or katchi abadis (Spaulding, geography of vulnerability to flood 1996). More than 3 per cent of the hazard, multiple material and discursive Islamabad was population of Islamabad, about 3,000 factors go into producing the designed with very little households, lives in these katchi abadis and hazardscape of the watershed of the Lai. regard for the they are also the only neighborhoods that hydrology and repeatedly suffer damage from floods. The Lai Basin already receives most (90 %) They were, as a result, especially affected of its river flows within a period of one geomorphology of the by the 2001 flood event. and a half month. The current carrying basin in which it is capacity of Lai is about 10,000 cusecs located. while the twenty-five year return period Natural and Climate Hazards flood carries 35,000 cusecs of water causing inundation in the most densely Flood hazard in the Lai Basin is endemic populated areas of Rawalpindi. Climate for the twin cities. Most recently, the Lai change predictions of increased flooded on 24 July 2001, affecting 400,000 precipitation on the approximately same residents of the twin cities, mainly people number of rainy days – in effect, higher of the poorest class. The death toll from intensity storm events – would exacerbate the flood stood at seventy-four, with sixty- this situation. Similarly, Islamabad is in four of the total fatalities in the an accelerated process of developing new downstream city of Rawalpindi (United sectors in the upstream watershed Nations Relief Web, 2003). The official reducing its absorption capacity. The mix estimate for damage from the flood is Rs. of these factors is expected to significantly 15 billion (approximately increase the flood peaks in the Lai. US$250million), though unofficial estimates have been as high as Rs. 53 While the policy makers in the Lai are billion (approximately US$930 million)– largely focused on the more dramatic an enormous sum of money for a country flood hazard, the residents of the Lai with a total official GDP of US$60.5 Basin perceive a range of hazards within billion (JICA, 2003; The World Bank, the basin. Surprising solid waste emerges 2003). In recent years, the Lai also flooded as the main hazard identified by the in 1995, 1996, and 1997; these latter majority of the surveyed residents in the

217 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Lai Basin. The mortality and diseases We do not anticipate greater loss in the load from the unhygienic living future because I have lost all I could conditions and contaminated drinking short of my children and my own life. water around the Lai may actually be (Ghulam, a male respondent) claiming more lives than the floods. Much of the vulnerability patterns I have been completely ruined. discussed below will be with reference to Nothing is left with me. I sold my the multiple hazards within the Lai shop to get some household items, Basin. and now my family is on the brink of starvation. I was asthmatic and now I also have coronary problems. Patterns of Vulnerability (Saleem, a male respondent)

The average household size of the survey Remarkably, less than 10% of the respondents was 7.6, in both extended respondents reported sickness in the and nuclear family living situations. The family as a consequences of the floods. average educational attainment of the When asked about that in a group most educated person in the survey meeting with the residents of a flood household was 9 years of schooling with plain neighborhood, the people reported While the policy only 11% of the respondents reporting a that given the liberal dumping of liquid makers in the Lai are household member with education and solid waste in the Lai Basin, the largely focused on the beyond the 12-year high school level. hygienic situation is such that somebody more dramatic flood The results of the field survey are is always sick in their households, presented and analysed below with an particularly the children from waterborne hazard, the residents eye towards drawing lessons for diseases all year around. Consequently, of the Lai Basin provision of effective relief and recovery, respondents generally did not ascribe perceive a range of especially along gender lines, in the sickness to the specific flood event in hazards within the future. 2001. Besides, of the 142 million liters of basin. liquid waste generated by Islamabad and Of the 158 survey respondents, 90% 143 million liters generated by reported some form of property damage; Rawalpindi, 2 only 19 million liters are typically complete loss of household treated, while the rest finds its way to the items down to pots and pans, and Lai untreated (Malik, 2000b; JICA, 2002)8. clothing in the 2001 flood. Forty eight per The twin cities generate more than one cent of the respondents also reported thousand tons of solid waste per day, structural damage to their houses, while 600–700 tons of which is produced by 38% reported loss of livelihood because of Rawalpindi. In Rawalpindi, the TMA a loss of the business establishment collects only 60% of the trash, the NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY where they worked, or loss of draft remainder as well as unknown animals, or the inability to find day labor proportion of the collected trash, often jobs. The loss of property was generally finds its way right into the Lai channel the more traumatic result of the flood, as (Rawalpindi Development Authority, some of the following quotes illustrate RDA), 2003; JICA, 2002). It is little wonder from the flood victims, when they were then, that 70% of the respondents asked what measures they were going to identified solid waste disposal in the Lai take to mitigate the effects of future floods: as the most pressing issue with regard to

8 This is based on 284 l/day/head produced by the half a million residents of Islamabad and 95 l/dayper head of wastewater produced by the 1.5 million residents of Rawalpindi, as reported by Malik, 2000b.

218 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

the Lai, while 50% perceived floods as sphere. Since it was the women who had POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE also an important issue. to spend more time with the health and sanitary hazards of the pollution in the When the responses were disaggregated Lai, they were also more concerned about by gender, it was found that more than those hazards in addition to the flood 80% of the women considered solid hazard. The evidence suggests a strong waste as the most pressing issue, while gender dimension to interaction with the 70% of the men considered it a pressing environment, something that could have issue9. More than 25% of the female important ramifications for any respondents identified water pollution community mobilisation initiatives. This as a pressing concern while none of the was also borne out by the group meetings male respondents mentioned it as a as discussed later in the chapter. concern (Figure 3). Along the same lines, 41% of the female respondents thought During the SLD process of 2006, there that one of the chief benefits of floods in was no significant change in the views of the Lai was the annual cleanup of it, local respondents from those expressed while, only7% of the male respondents several years earlier. The population could see any benefit to the floods: was, if anything, more concerned about the sanitation hazard as a constant Floods in the Lai annually clean up threat and also considered earthquakes Women often saw low Rawalpindi and Islamabad, otherwise as additional hazard, which they had levels of flooding as a the trash in the Lai would generate not identified earlier. benefit because it unbearable diseases–clothes would cleaned out the Lai. start walking with vermin. The dumping of garbage in to Lai Basin (Mrs. Ijaz, A female respondent) was described as the major reason for flooding. The settlements along the The damage caused by floods is stream do not have a proper waste more visible to the people, but the collection system. There are no access floods also clean up the Lai, roads along the banks for Cantonment something that the government is Board trucks to move and collect refuse. not capable of doing. (Rabeea, A female respondent) | FIGURE 3 | Perceived issues with Lai by gender However, not everyone saw benefits to 90 flooding in Lai and for the most exposed 80 and vulnerable it was all doom. 70

60

The only benefit of the flood is that 50

it will sweep us away and put us out 40

of our misery. Percentage 30 (Sadiq Masih, A male respondent) 20

Part of the reason for women’s greater 10 attentiveness to the beneficial aspects of 0 Water pollution Flooding Solid waste Encroachments Other floods could be their greater responsibility Issues and engagement with the domestic Female Male

9 In each of the categories of responses, the women seemed to be more attentive to the issues with regard to Lai than were the men.

219 „ WORKING„ WORKING WITH THE WITH WINDS THE OF WINDS CHANGE OF CHANGE

In essence the pattern of vulnerability in the Lai Flood Plain is associated with multiple health and physical hazards spawned by environmental, infrastructure related and institutional factors. Because the basin is home to the capital city of the Solid waste and sewage country and there is some high level

© D Mustafa attention to the hazards associated with the Lai. The attention, however, does not As such, all the waste generated in the seem to be promising any sustainable DRR adjacent settlements is dumped in the measures that may enhance resilience as channel. After heavy rains, water we briefly discuss in the following section. overflows the channel and worsens the situation on both banks. Ongoing and Prospective The community reported that there is no Strategies for DRR hospital or even dispensary in Jhanda and Arya Mohalla where the SLDs were On March 27, 2007 the president of Pakistan announced the Lai Expressway In essence the pattern conducted. People reported tremendous health hazard associated with lack of project as a part of the campaign for of vulnerability in the easy access to medical facilities. Overall, elections at the end of the year. The Lai Flood Plain is transport was identified as a key issue proposal is to build two-lane 22km long associated with often in relation to health care. Because of expressway on the both banks of the Lai this, the residents of Jhanda reported that after channelisation and straightening of multiple health and the banks. Expected to cost approximately physical hazards they are having trouble finding spouses for their children. Outsiders consider 250 million dollars, this project is spawned by them unmarriageable because of their intended to facilitate the increasing environmental, poverty and the difficulties of access in vehicular traffic between Rawalpindi and infrastructure related their locality. Islamabad. It will also connect the old General Head Quarter of the Army to the and institutional new one in Islamabad. The project is factors. Another important concern was rain water and floodwaters stagnating in the supposed to provide risk reduction streets, mostly because solid waste, through stopping of throwing of garbage particularly plastic bags blocking into the Lai, faster flow of storm water whatever drains that are there. People through paved sections and providing a find it difficult to get to their jobs, levee. businesses, schools, and so on, for The project has been approved by a NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY sometime after rains and floods. The meeting participants attributed the presidential directive and by-passed all outbreaks of diseases like malaria, government planning procedures hepatitis and dengue virus in Arya including Environmental Impact Mohalla to stale rainwater standing in Assessments. It has also been awarded to the streets. Effluents were mixing with a semi-autonomous military construction 10 drinking water through broken pipes. company without competition . The They said that every third person in Arya same organisation is doing the feasibility Mohalla was suffering from hepatitis. study.

10 The Frontier Works Organisation’s claim to fame is its involvement in the making of the Karrakuram Highway that leads to China

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The current Lai Channel capacity is rehabilitation of the Lai has made him POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE around 10,000 cusec and it is unlikely aware of the issues but not to the extent that even after improvement the Lai will that would cause a major change in the contain a 25 year historic return period trajectory of the development activities. floods whose magnitude is likely to be The minister probably cannot afford 35,000 cusec. Moreover, there are complex opposition from the ruling party and is issues with channelisation of a river and unwilling to become a spanner in the the costs involved in maintaining such a works by all other mid-level agencies. canal, especially with erosion of the road base during floods. The communities had A third approach would be to strongly mentioned the road and its benefit in influence public opinion on the subject allowing garbage removal and access, through education of journalists, vocal however, it did not come up in the top ten NGOs and social activists. This carries priorities for risk reduction. Also an the risk of creating an antagonistic rigid ‘expressway’ is unlikely to facilitate non- stance from the government and also motorised access to the poor who may be detrimental to receptivity to expressed the need for it during the SLDs. future disaster risk reduction research in Pakistan. The decision-making authority is in the hands of the military, which populates the offices of top management in the country. Despite its infancy, the National Disaster Management Agency would be a natural place to start comprehensive risk reduction strategies for emerging hazards with a holistic approach for two reasons. First, the NDMA has a mandate to address cross-jurisdictional and cross- sectoral issues endemic to the Lai. Second, due to NDMA’s placement in the Federal Government under the Prime Minister’s Secretariat and military leadership it has the clout to bring CDA, Lai cancelling out river improvement, 2002

RDA and other concerned agencies to © D Mustafa the table and make decisions. The military leadership, however, does not have a sound understanding of a proactive approach and is not very receptive to cross-sectoral research and analysis. Also, any initiative that would undermine a project announced by the President is unlikely to find support within any part of the government.

The other direct route once again at the Federal level is to rally political support from the prominent member of national assembly and minister from the area. A Lai cancelling out river improvement, 2007

presentation given to minister on © D Mustafa

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local levels we met with the Additional Institutional SLDs Deputy Commissioner (ADC) Muzaffarabad and Local Government on the Two Case Studies Department, AJK. Disaster management in the Pakistani context has historically been a provincial and a local subject, with logistical and material input from the federally controlled armed forces typically providing support to the The SLDs were conducted by the provincial and local authorities. In the researchers themselves at the aftermath of the unprecedented institutional level with key earthquake in northern Pakistan, the organisations involved in disaster semi-military government of Pakistan response, management and wider has decided to federalise the disaster developmental efforts in Pakistan in relief, reconstruction and management general and Kashmir region in functions. NDMA is structured under the Disaster management particular. In this section we outline prime minister through an ordinance in the Pakistani key insights gained from those NDMA is meant to play role as the key context has historically meetings and the SLDs. The insights are organisation intended to be responsible for coordinating disaster management in been a provincial and arranged under the three sub-heads of government, non-governmental the country while channeling a local subject, with organisations (NGOs), and national and international and national disaster relief logistical and material international donor agencies. In the and reconstruction resources. input coming from the following narratives the outcomes of the federally controlled interviews with their representatives of Like many other sectors of Pakistani armed forces. various organisations are woven public life disaster management has together with the key overarching recently seen increasing militarisation. themes that emerged from the SLDs and Serving (or recently retired) military the interviews. officers dominate the two key federal level disaster management organisations–NDMA and Earthquake Federal, Provincial and Local Relief and Rehabilitation Authority Government Agencies (ERRA). The latter just has a titular civilian as its head and that too

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY We contacted representatives of reportedly because of international government organisations at the local, donors’ insistence upon dealing with a provincial and national levels. At the civilian. federal level the discussions were held with representatives of the newly In our conversations with the head of formed National Disaster Management the NDMA it came across quite clearly Authority (NDMA), Center for that the General in-charge, consistent Research on Poverty Reduction and with his training, had a very Income Distribution (CRPRID) and technologically driven, command and Earthquake Rehabilitation and control based approach to disaster Recovery Authority (ERRA). At the response. He was clear in expressing

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his skepticism about DRR declaring it programmatic priority setting within POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE yet another buzzword, but was NDMA. compelled to agree to it because of his interaction with international donors The NDMA chief was, however, quite supporting almost all of his receptive to our potential input in his programmatic activities. Despite programming, though somewhat frequent probing the general continued skeptical of our intentions. As he to define disaster management in specifically asked one of the authors as reactive terms, e.g., ‘tell me of a specific to why DfID had decided to bestow its technology that I can use to make ‘favour’ (nazr-e-karam) towards him. disaster response more effective’ Prior to the meeting with the General (Personal communication, 16/12/2006). many of his junior officials were quite One of his statements was particularly vocal about the misbehavior of the NGOs indicative; and how they were dancing to the tune of their foreign masters. The tension of a One of my biggest concerns is terrain being pluralised is clear. One of getting together a set of instructions the biggest concerns driven by the and metrics for different ministries stereotypes about the NGOs on part of in terms of disaster management, the government in Pakistan is that the The tension of a terrain e.g., the Women’s Division and NGOs make money hand over fist from being pluralised is Communications ministry, that I can international donors and that they are clear. One of the use as a way of monitoring if they deeply corrupt. An academic or biggest concerns are playing their role in disaster research organisation does not typically management and prevention. feature in Pakistani policy discourse and driven by the hence most government functionaries stereotypes about the The above quote illustrates a highly tend to equate them with NGOs and NGOs on part of the technocratic perspective that seeks their institutional nightmares. The government in Pakistan modular packages of information to be challenge for any policy intervention is that the NGOs make applicable across all sectors consistent will be to negotiate that wall of hostility money hand over fist with the military ethos. Faced with the on part of the government, especially if implementation of the NDM the organisation is walking on the table from international Framework and the associated budget without any funding. donors and that they to spend, the NDMA priorities were are deeply corrupt. operationally established. Identification In terms of dealing with the reality of a of risks and vulnerabilities did not military led federal institution, or for feature in that priority. About the Lai, that matter even at the provincial level, the NDMA chief said that it was a it will be a challenge for any backyard pet project and it would organisation to establish itself as a figure very low on NDMA’s role at a ‘patriotic’ organisation which is not national level because of its small scale. making any money from their NDMA is also severely constrained by intervention. availability of qualified staff. Two advisors seconded from international We had discussions with ERRA, which organisations and some other non- has been mandated to coordinate the technical support staff supported the earthquake reconstruction activity. For General. Lack of subject specialists also risk reduction their primary input has explains the difficulties in been the design of seismic proof housing.

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All those compensated for loss of He thought that people in far-flung shelter must follow a standard design areas and women were particularly given to them. Due to non-availability vulnerable. In these areas, people were of cement in some far-flung high unable to access cash (government altitude areas, a second design that grants or from relatives) because they used local material such as wood etc. did not live close to a bank or had bank was allowed. Probed on whether this accounts. He said that families who approach may be too restrictive the had member outside AJK would send operative said that this was the only back remittance and collected funds way to monitor compliance and all from other sources. A lot of them, houses built with government’s however, had to repatriate to support compensatory grants were checked at the bereaved families and help taking different stages of construction before care of injured. This compulsion has the next tranche of the grant was pushed those families further into released. poverty as they had lost their source of livelihood outside AJK. The director ERRA identified drought as the second biggest hazard in the According to the director, one of the Although these were area. He said water availability was a positive outcome of the earthquake not formally part of serious issue and that he had read in calamity was that people were given DRR, the direction of the media that this year was going to identification cards and were be the hottest recorded year in history. introduced to formal banking. Also ERRA indicated that As mitigation measure ERRA is with the increase of cellular phone improvement of encouraging water harvesting and network people feel more secure banking and has mandated the construction of because they are able to call for help in communicating were toilets (in an area with over 70% open case of similar events in the future. positive side effects of defecation) in all new houses. Water Lack of communication was one of the the relief activities. harvesting has become a requirement main risks people faced in the for new buildings and is enforced in aftermath of the earthquake and many the public sector. These buildings were not attended to in the first few meet requirements of building codes days. before they are approved for construction. For reconstruction activities, and plans for food and shelter supplies ERRA In terms of enforcement the ERRA relies on weather forecast by the director said that as long as there is Meteorological Department. The

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY government subsidy, the two agency’s winter plan relied heavily on approved designs enforcement can be such weather forecasts. ERRA did not ensured. Afterwards, compliance know if anyone in the government was especially in rural areas would be concerned with climate change difficult to monitor. He thought that information, though they were aware strengthening municipal capacity of its risks through international media with qualified architects and and internet as main source of engineers would be a cost effective information. risk reduction measure and some innovative mechanism for far-flung At the provincial level the research team areas need also be devised. met with Chairman, Planning and

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Development Board of Punjab, which funds from the district, even though the POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE plans and approves all public sector city probably generates about 90% of the development activities (SLD 06/12/ tax revenues. Consequently the 2006). He said that the one of the Rawalpindi City Nazim deemed himself weaknesses of the new local to be handicapped by this institutional government system is that disaster arrangement. management has slipped through the cracks. He had been the Assistant In terms of flood the Lai the Nazim Commissioner in one of the thought risk from that the upcoming earthquake-hit districts and had many road project along the Lai held the best more power to deal with calamities. promise of reducing flood peaks in the They were able to commandeer river. The mechanics of how that might vehicles and mobilise a quick response, facilitate the reduction of flood peaks whereas, the elected leadership neither was something we politely refrained had the authority or the sense to deal from asking and he did not elaborate with such situations. According to him, on. In essence it seemed that the Nazim the local leadership was busy thought that ‘development’ was dispensing patronage to their construction of more infrastructure was constituency with all the relief goods. his main mandate and he was doing In terms of flood the He said that there was lack of research what he could with Rs. 30 million that Lai the Nazim thought on public policy in Pakistan and he he said he had in his coffers with risk from that the looked forward to our findings and considerable help from the federal upcoming road project their implications for the province. government. He was a relative of an influential federal minister and one of along the Lai held the At the local level we held meetings the Pakistan National Assembly best promise of with the tehsil nazim of Rawalpindi, the representatives from the city. Talking of reducing flood peaks equivalent of the City Mayor regarding disaster management he informed us in the river. his perceptions on flood and other that the city did not even posses a hazards associated with the Lai. He ladder that could reach above two- stated ‘development’ as his key priority stories and was hence handicapped in but said that because of the unique an effective response. The interest in structure of local government in building expensive roads and not Rawalpindi District he did not think purchasing ladders indicates the that the City Nazim had the requisite political incentives do not rank risk authority or the funding to undertake reduction as a major prioirity. developmental activities in the cities. Similar sentiment had also been echoed The question of ambivalent institutional earlier by the Deputy Fire Chief and are structures and engineering bias were reported later. The tehsil nazim explained also evident from other interviews at to us the Rawalpindi city (a tehsil) with the local level. In our meetings with the a population of about 1.5 million is part Rawalpindi Fire Department, of Rawalpindi District, which includes Rawalpindi Development Authority six other rural tehsils. The district Nazim (RDA) and other members of the tehsil with all the power and funding administration the emphasis were on typically hails from rural tehsils. engineering and technical solutions to Therefore, the Rawalpindi City Tehsil the Lai flood problems, e.g., the deputy has to compete with rural tehsils for project director of the Japanese funded

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Lai Telemetric System had the department. The Lai flooding is following suite of solutions to the Lai primarily the responsibility of the flood problem: Rawalpindi city which comes under the Tehsil Municipal Administration „ The sides of Nala Lai should be (TMA), but the Fire Department is under paved. If you build sloped walls the administrative control of the District there, people will not be able to Government which is oriented towards build any more houses. the much larger, mostly rural area „ 40-50 meters wide roads should be which forms the vote bank for the built. district leadership. Consequently, „ Building the wall and roads could although the Fire Department is under stop the population expansion. the district government its leadership is „ A barbed fence should be put relatively indifferent to the issues of the around it. city because they hail from the „ A proper scheme is required. adjoining rural areas of the district and „ Developing a Diversion Channel in tend to focus their resources and energy Islamabad is the most important towards the rural areas. thing. Institutional issues Being an old and visibly proud resident raised major questions Similar technical orientation was of Rawalpindi, the deputy fire chief did regarding the confirmed during our meetings with stress that the Rawalpindi could reap the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), benefits from having Lai in its midst, sustainability of the which was main federal agency just as it had in the past. He, however, early warning system responsible for flood mitigation in the stressed that the old institutional issues on the Lai. Lai. The officer concerned there, were continuing to hamper any reported to us that at the moment, attempts at service delivery by his diversion of two of the tributaries of organisation, e.g., he mentioned that the Lai into the adjoining Korang even though the Fire Department had Basin is a priority project being been made in-charge of operating the considered by the FFC. telemetric system, it had not been allocated any budget for its operations The deputy fire chief was particularly and maintenance. It was also pointed vocal about the ambivalent out to us that they had to hire guards institutional structures. He gave us a for the telemetric stations and get briefing on the new telemetric system vehicles to get to the monitoring that had been put in place with stations for maintenance. But they did

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY Japanese assistance. He said that there not have any vehicles, nor did they was some controversy about who have a budget to hire additional should run the system but it was personnel. So what was going to decided finally that since the fire become of the system was unknown to department was the first responder to our interviewees, though they did say emergencies and also happened to be that once operational the system could the one to convey flood warning to the provide up to an hour of advanced people it should be the one running warning of a flood, which could save the system. But then it could not be many lives. decided who should run the fire

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Civil Society Despite frequent probing the Actionaid POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE representative did not demonstrate any In the NGO sector the themes of concrete understanding of what DRR governance, accountability and may mean. She stressed that the nesting of disaster management fundamentals needed to be changed, within broader political issues were political will for development had to be very pronounced. It appeared that found, and basic standard of with the massive inflow of donor construction be developed, but was money into disaster response and vague in terms of specifics. Although, management in the aftermath of the she decried the service delivery Asian Tsunami and the Kashmir orientation of many organisations but earthquake, many organisations with yet reported precisely such activities, as no previous experience of disaster organisation’s programming. She did related programming had entered the however, say that the whole notion of field. By its own admission ActionAid public private partnership was part of Pakistan was one such organisation. the international donor agenda and it Providing the context of Actionaid’s had little relevance to the Pakistani programming in disaster context. Furthermore, financial management its director of disaster mechanisms like micro-credit or micro- There is an entire management unit, said that there was insurance in her view were impractical rhetoric that has considerable dissatisfaction with the in Pakistan. developed around the haphazard disaster response after the NGO sector in Pakistan earthquake. She said ‘we need to fix The interview demonstrated the fundamentals first, e.g., considerable political awareness and and many of the NGO corruption in public life, before we attention to institutional barriers but operatives have an can have effective disaster response little in terms of how broad principles admirable grasp of systems . . . and you have to involve were to be translated into practical development but are the people [in governance and policies. This finding is consistent with short on the programming] to prevent corruption.’ earlier such surveys by Mustafa conceptual and (forthcoming). There is an entire Sticking with the theme of addressing rhetoric that has developed around the practical implications. corruption and improving NGO sector in Pakistan and many of governance she said that instead of the NGO operatives have an admirable getting on the bandwagon of service grasp of development but are short on delivery in the aftermath of disasters the conceptual and practical Actionaid has been focusing on implications, rather casually thrown forming citizen committees at the around in conversations. This interview district level to keep the authorities was unfortunately no different. accountable in the process of relief and reconstruction. Actionaid itself The views of representative from Plan has been providing long-term capital International were slightly different and and livelihood based support to he opined that they had always worried communities, e.g., temporary shelters, about environmental risks and livestock replenishment, woodcutting vulnerability of the poor upland machines, watermills and populations although their primary development of community centers. concern was food insecurity as a result

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of drought (SLD, 27/11/06). In the developing a cheaper insurance that context of the risk reduction he thought covers in-patient expenses for the that identifying threats, raising loanee. They reported that although awareness on them, building designs, they have not thought of insuring poverty reduction and alternative productive assets such as crops and (diversified) earning strategies would be animals, they had looked into insuring the best risk reduction measures. He saw health and education. So far, however, risk reduction as a very cost effective in the costs were too high for the poor reducing damage. He viewed the communities. He said that if people are government as coordinator and not a organised they can seize many savior. opportunities and proactive risk reduction measures are cheaper and Aga Khan Foundation had started risk more effective. reduction activities within its development programmes. The agency The representative of the Urban Poverty perceived that risk reduction should be a Alleviation Programme from National ground up strategy. The foundation was Poverty Alleviation Programme said training their partner communities in that NRSP and Adamjee Insurance had Insurance mechanisms mountain rescue and seismic resistant an ongoing micro-insurance for risk spreading are terracing. They prioritised micro- programme that covered accidental being tested in a zonation and information and death and hospitalisation (in-patient) communication technology as major risk expenses. He said that disaster variety of contexts. reduction strategies. They were management was not a part of the particularly interested in micro-insurance programme although many of the and informed that with the help of Gates micro-credit clients were Lai flood foundation livestock and health micro- affectees. He also opined that insuring insurance was being piloted in three assets would be a great strategy for countries (SLD, 30/11/06). disaster risk management but control on productive assets was a difficult Punjab Rural Support Programme issue (SLD, 12/12/06). (PRSP) has been a part of one of the first micro-insurance initiatives in Pakistan The Urban Poverty Reduction Project of (SLD, 05/12/06). They claimed that such the National Rural Support Programme financial mechanisms against risks were had some experience with micro- always present but we have found new insurance. They had a contract with names for them. Grameen Bank had a Adamjee Insurance and insured

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY practice of waiving loans to those accidental death and hospitalisation affected by flood and provide them new (in-patient healthcare) for Rs. 250 per loans to recover. Borrowers were viewed annum (USD 42 eq.) In the second year as partners. PRSP itself gives micro they were preparing a product with insurance in a credit-life programme half the cost that reduced Rs. 25,000 in- where getting life insurance is patient coverage to Rs. 15,000 to make it mandatory within a loan. The insurance more attractive to the poor pays back any overdue amount of the communities. The manager of the credit deceases loanee and also the funeral cost programme (SLD 12/12/06) said that at a nominal addition to the loan disasters were not insured in Pakistan amount. They are now in the process of as yet. However, some of the urban

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communities were hit by Lai flooding. with the caveat that in case of the POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE After checking repayments for that government declared calamity (usually month, no defaults were found and a major event) the loans were supposed there were minimal deferrals! Even Rs. to pay the balance of coverage amount 5,000 overdue was paid off in the next that was not received from other month. He said that theoretically assets sources. The government’s can be insured but controllability is an compensation in most cases is larger issue that must be overcome. He also than coverage of the credit life amount. informed that Adamjee Insurance was also insuring the cash in transit for the organisation. Multi-lateral Agencies

The Micro-Finance Network is a project Interviews with the UN system that supports micro-finance operatives revealed that they developed institutions in Pakistan. The the Early Recovery plans and the membership fees do not cover its National Disaster Management expense and DFID has provided Framework for the government of financial support. The network has Pakistan. This was the official policy managed to support a study on stance on both subjects. The UN system The UN system is demands for micro-insurance. Their was at the forefront of organising the committed to DRR in most important contribution to the relief efforts among multiple foreign Pakistan but has some sector is generating a quarterly update and some local actors and provided the difficulty in convincing about micro-finance activities in the bulk of material and technical support. country and conducting thematic The UN system is committed to DRR in the government studies. The network representative Pakistan but has some difficulty in towards this strategy. said almost all major insurance convincing the government towards companies were interested in this strategy. In their view there was a developing a micro-insurance technical and relief bent in the military business. headed disaster management infrastructure in the country. The However, there were two insurance management cannot get over the companies (non-members) that we met importance of helicopters in with later that provided micro- emergency. However, the UN with help insurance for crops, farm animals and of bi-laterals has mobilised for funding farm implements by insuring the loans disaster management infrastructure in given out for this purpose. The the country. Besides the military outreach of these loans cum insurance executives, the technical staff of both is small but spans across Pakistan. ERRA and NDMA is hired and paid by Currently the insurance companies are the UN system. All inquiries on lobbying for a legislation that would organisational stance on issues of make insurance a mandatory part of hazards and risk reduction are referred micro-credit and the companies sees to the Early Recovery and National this as the only way of keeping Disaster Management Framework as insurance affordable by spreading risk the UN was an integral part of across the board. In case of the credit technical support in framing the life schemes the Adamjee Insurance document and, therefore, showed full representative said cost was kept low confidence.

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(drought, floods and landslides) and the Summary of Insights less easily perceived consequences of climate change. Virtually all measures from Institutional SLDs that are perceived as contributing to disaster risk reduction are focused on immediate risks and are of debatable sustainability. As illustrated by the excerpts from SLDs, interventions are not perceived as related to risk reduction unless they are explicitly and exclusively intended for that purpose. Muzaffarabad

Strategies for DRR that emerged Lai Basin through the SLDs at the community and at higher institutional levels that Technology leads the DRR debate in are being implemented focus on the the higher policy and to some extent at following: the community level. There is a vested The SLD process interest of the relevant department indicates the low level 1. Structural measures, principally organisations in giving a solution that of awareness at all improvement of building design for suits their mandate. The Frontier Work Organisation has proudly displayed levels regarding the earthquakes; 2. Training of masons to construct billboards boasting the largest turnkey underlying factors that earthquake proof housing. infrastructure project in Pakistan. Even may contribute to risk 3. Training and capacity building at the community level people (mostly reduction. within both government entities and men and some women) think of a local communities for disaster miracle cure that will tame the Lai for response (primarily rescue) with a e.g. people feel that Lai can be limited amount of additional deepened. After the ranking and training of key target groups such as costing exercise at the community level masons for structural risk reduction; this idea seemed possible but not 4. Community organisation to identify probable. Conversely, solid waste was and plan potential local risk identified as an omnipresent hazard reduction measures in addition to some thinking on its clearing and the their primary focus on relief and associated cost made it more desirable. reconstruction (the DRR component Therefore, while the powerful

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY is minor); organisations have very strong interest 5. Discussions regarding spatial in physical solution, the affected planning–the relocation of Balakot– communities are much more open to with very little probability of this looking at structural and non structural occurring in practice; measures.

The SLD process indicates the low level Disaster risk reduction is a growing of awareness at all levels regarding the buzzword that is understood a little underlying factors that may contribute better within NGOs, especially among to risk reduction in relation to those working in disaster related relief earthquakes, other current hazards activities. In the government’s planning

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documents it is seen equivalent to chance and rarely God’s will is an POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE poverty. The appreciation for creation indication of the lack of understanding of hazards, vulnerability and the and underplaying of the role of the causality between risk and poverty is social and political factors that combine yet to be understood. Since this with natural phenomenon to create connection is conceptually missing, hazards. The government authorities risk reduction is also absent in actual have little idea of the larger picture and programming. The Japanese funding look at disaster from event to event, and agency JICA has produced a sector to sector. The federal level actors comprehensive drought mitigation (at the moment mostly military) when programme for the Lai, which is based asked about risk reduction, focused on mainly on large structural measures. response. The idea of comprehensive The programme includes check dams planning and inclusion of risk in the catchment area, a lake upstream reduction in mainstream development of the flood prone area and diversion of activities seemed like a novel idea to three of the main tributaries to another them or something that was far-fetched river. These measures could be effective and somehow lower priority probably except that they would be prohibitively because of lack or urgency in the idea. expensive and have far reaching Most organisation see environmental and social impacts. The communities are, however willing DRR as important but to consider a much wider range of something that is not Most see DRR as important but choices for risk reduction in the Lai area, tangible. something that is not tangible. They although they also wish for a cost free would wish that it were included in (entirely government funded) silver- development but don’t know how. In bullet technological solution. This many of the SLDs one had to point out receptivity at this level would add to the that some of the work that they did was sustainability of risk reduction indeed DRR. Very few are willing to measures if they were undertaken with actually invest in DRR at the planning consultation of the affected. and design stage of projects and hence it does not get included in the There hasn’t been any serious thought mainstream development activities. It is given to the institutional side or looking not an explicit part of most of at the Lai as in issues of multi- Government’s planning documents jurisdictional organisational confusion especially PRSP. Some of the newer that happen to be responsible for donor policy documents include it but different parts of the small Lai flood as something politically correct (among plain which may allow a more holistic gender, environment etc.) rather than approach to the DRR. The NGOs are serious intervention. confused about the whole situation but stress heavily on the softer side Reactive thinking is found across all especially the old mantra of community sectors and communities. NDMA training and mobilisation and stay wants helicopters, the TMA wants away from technology. They, however, ladders and the Fire Department wants have a very prominent role to play not trucks. Amazingly the communities only in response and recovery but also also prefer helicopters. To some extent in risk reduction, awareness raising and the attribution of hazard to nature, advocacy to various players. The

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shortcoming here is the lack of multi- NGOs are vocal about communities sectoral technical knowledge on these concerns but have little effect on issues. mainstream development activities and have not invested much in the Lai Basin Among the actors in the Lai basin there themselves. The need to work across is the pure competitive spirit among sectors to capture the root-causes of actors in . The donors tend to lead the hazardscape creation is therefore agenda. The planning commission, as difficult, if not impossible to address in the apex development policymaking the current competitive and at times agency, is not involved in much of the antagonistic institutional environment. disaster risk reduction debate and there Government’s leadership and is the struggle between the better-funded ownership is essential for military led initiative and the previous implementing cost effective solutions bureaucratic powerhouses to obtain for risk reduction. funding for development activities (e.g Lai Expressway). NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY

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next generation would still follow the POLICY VERSUS EXPERIENCE DISASTER NAVIGATING PAKISTANI HAZARDSCAPES: OF THE CONTOURS THE Conclusions practice once the earthquake is no longer a part of their personal experience. Similarly, in Lai Basin, the expressway along the banks of the river is a devised multi-purpose By comparing the two cases one can solution that on one hand would see that there is evidence of scattered prevent overflow and facilitate garbage initiatives for direct investment in collection (and prevent dumping), and DRR. In Muzaffarabad building on the other help reduce traffic flow design and training of masons, for problems in the conurbation. Other example, are targeted interventions. proposed solutions are very costly and Although the intervention is essential, may even exacerbate the situation by it is hard to predict whether these creating a false sense of security or new technologies would have long- create risk in other areas (such as term adoption and if people in the rarely used diversion channel occupied by poor squatters).

There are unintended systemic changes in Kashmir that have a profound long-term effect on building resilience in the communities. Cellular mobile communication, expansion of financial services, road networks and civil society intervention will not only facilitate recovery but is likely to diversify livelihoods, build social capital and expand opportunities for basic services like health and education. Therefore, areas that are not considered to be part of ambit of focused DRR interventions may in fact lead to a more sustained DRR especially if the basis for these systemic changes is lead by a business model rather than policy alone. In Lai, development policy, which is an outcome of competing organisational interests, can possibly lead to increased vulnerability, and relegates DRR to a secondary objective among varied organisational and developmental objectives.

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Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, I. Davis and B. Wisner (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters. New York: Routledge. CRPRID (2006). Pakistan 2005 Earthquake: An Assessment of Impoverishment Risks. Islamabad: CRPRID. Cutter, S. (1996). Vulnerability to environmental hazards, Progress in Human Geography 20(4): 529-539. Dove, M. R. and D. M. Kammen (2001). Vernacular models of development: An analysis of Indonesia under the ‘New Order’, World Development 29(4): 619-639. Hewitt, K. (ed.) (1983). Interpretations of Calamity, Winchester, MA: Allen and Unwin Inc. Hewitt, K. (1997). Regions of risk: A geographical introduction to disasters. Harlow, U.K.: Longman. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2003). Comprehensive Flood Mitigation and Environmental Improvement Plan of (sic) Lai Nullah Basin, Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Islamabad Pakistan: JICA and Federal Flood Commission (FFC). Kates, R. and Ian Burton (1986a). Geography Resources and Environment: Selected Works of Gilbert F. White, vol. 1. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Kates, R. and Ian Burton (1986b). Geography Resources and Environment: Themes from the work of Gilbert F. White, vol. 2. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Khan, Sher Baz (2004). Nullah Leh project’s affected people: Compensation not given as planned. The Daily Dawn Islamabad. 14 August: 17. Mahmood, A. (2007). Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment–Pakistan: 2005-06. Islamabad, Pakistan: The Population Council. Mitchell, J. K. (1998). Introduction: Hazards in changing cities, Applied Geography 18(1): 1-6. Mustafa, D. and J. L. Wescoat Jr. (1997). Development of Flood Hazard Policy in the Indus River Basin of Pakistan, 1947-1995, Water Interna- tional 22(4): 238-244. Mustafa, D. (1998). Structural Causes of Vulnerability to Flood Hazard in Pakistan, Economic Geography 74(3): 289-305. Mustafa, D. (2002). To each according to his power? Access to irrigation water and vulnerability to flood hazard in Pakistan, Environment and Planning D: Society and Space 20(6): 737-752. National Engineering Corporation (NEC) (2002). Study for Social Environment: Comprehensive Flood Mitigation and Environmental Improvement Plan of Lai Nullah Basin in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Submitted to Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Pelling, M. (2003). Toward a political ecology of urban environmental risk: The case of Guyana.’ Political Ecology: An Integrative Approach to Geography and Environment-Development Studies, eds. Karl S. Zimmerer and Thomas J. Bassett 73-93. New York: Guilford Press. Rawalpindi Development Authority (RDA) (2003). Urban water supply and sanitation project Rawalpindi: Lai Nullah improvement works. Presentation by the Project Management Unit to the LEAD Pakistan Workshop on Lai Nullah Flood Hazard Management, Islamabad, Pakistan, 24 July, 2003. Raza, S. I. (2004). Construction work on new GHQ complex begins. The Daily Dawn, September 6th, 2004. Retrieved on September 7th, 2004 from http://www.dawn.com/2004/09/07/nat14.htm Spaulding, F. (1996). Architecture and Islamabad. Paper presented at the American Institute of Pakistan Studies Workshop on the state of Pakistan studies, Washington DC, Sept. 18-22, 1996. Watts, M. (1983). On the poverty of theory: natural hazards research in context. In Interpretations of Calamity, ed. K. Hewitt, 231-262.

NAVIGATING THE CONTOURS OF THE HAZARDSCAPES: PAKISTANI NAVIGATING DISASTER EXPERIENCE VERSUS POLICY London: Routledge. Wescoat, James L. Jr. (1987). The Practical Range of Choice’ in Water Resources Geography, Progress in Human Geography 11(2): 41-59. Wescoat, J. (1992). Common themes in the work of Gilbert White and John Dewey: A pragmatic appraisal, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 82:587-607. White, G. F. (1945). Human Adjustment to Floods. Research Paper 29. Chicago IL: University of Chicago, Department of Geography. Whyte, A. (1986). From hazards perception to human ecology. In Themes from the work of Gilbert F. White, Vol II, eds. R. Kates and I. Burton, 240-271. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

234 CHAPTER9

Challenges and Prospects for Adaptation: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Coastal Tamilnadu

S. Janakarajan „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

Case Study Guidance Note

Country: India Location: Tamilnadu Date: May 2007 Sector and Spatial focus:Coastal fishing and coastal agriculture Title: Challenges and Prospects for Adaptation: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Coastal Tamilnadu Bibliographical reference: S. Janakarajan (2007) Challenges and Prospects for Adaptation: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Coastal Tamilnadu

Abstract This case study examines the challenges of climate change impacts and disaster risk reduction strategies in Tamilnadu. It outlines the existing prevalent responses by the people and by the government. Adaptation processes and strategies currently undertaken needed to better cope with future climate change impacts are discussed. These include the context of the potential rise in sea-level, accelerating sea erosion, increasing risks from cyclones and storms, the ongoing flooding and inundation due to backwater and freshwater floods, droughts, increasing salinisation of land and groundwater, etc. The Tamilnadu study is being undertaken in three ecosystems where the basic livelihoods are fishing and agriculture.

Technical Description „ Hazard/risk type: High wind speeds with heavy rainfall, flooding, sea water ingress, inundation, salinity of land and groundwater, excessive heat „ Type of assessment: Vulnerability and risk assessment, initial cost-benefit analysis and strategies for possible interventions, long-term adaptive strategies.

Contextual Notes „ Tamilnadu's 1,061 km of coast is the second longest coastline in India. The livelihoods of millions of people are supported along this coastline, based on marine fishing and fishing in numerous backwaters. 700,000 people depend on marine fishing for their livelihoods, spread over 591 coastal villages. Many hundreds of fishermen and farmers are already facing severe threats due to the pollution load dumped in the backwater rivers by industries, cyclonic storms, floods in the Cauvery River, sea water flooding agricultural land, etc. They are constrained due to lack of skills to diversify from their traditional livelihoods. The potential impacts of climate change are quite likely to aggravate the problems already confronted by the people.

Research and Analytical Process „ Methods/tools used: Initial secondary data collection from various governmental and non-governmental sources, literature collection, time-series data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department, a series of shared learning dialogues at village, mid- and state levels, ranking potential costs and benefits

CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE AND AND CLIMATE CLIMATE DISASTER DISASTERCHALLENGESCHALLENGES RISK RISK TAMILNADU TAMILNADU AND AND PROSPECTS PROSPECTS REDUCTION REDUCTION IN IN FOR ADAPTATION: FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL COASTAL of strategies to reduce risks as perceived by communities, etc.

236 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN COASTAL COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: FOR ADAPTATION: IN IN PROSPECTS PROSPECTS REDUCTION REDUCTION TAMILNADU TAMILNADU AND AND RISK RISK CHALLENGES CHALLENGES DISASTER DISASTER CLIMATE CLIMATE AND AND CHANGE CHANGE

Key Insights Generated for Vulnerability Reduction and Capacity Enhancement A. For fishermen in all ecosystems: „ Except in some places there is no bio-shield in the villages. Mangroves could benefit and save the fisher population. Many people have shown a preference for coconut trees as bio-shielding. „ People need to aquire non-fishing skills such as carpentry, masonry, electrical works, plumbing operations, heavy vehicle driving and communication. „ Access to insurance and credit. „ Training in fish processing such as manufacturing of fish pickles, prawn pickles and tinned fish, and training in exporting these goods. „ Need better schools and particularly education in the English language. „ Everyone appreciated the idea of a community FM station for information dissemination during times of disaster. „ Safe drinking water is one of the most important demands. The groundwater is saline and polluted. „ A Village Information Center (VIC) is considered a good facility but needs to be integrated with people's preferred needs. There is a case for strengthening existing VICs by providing them with reliable climate information. „ Sponsoring young boys and girls for industrial training, computer training, science courses, training in NGO activities and the English language. B. For agriculture dependent populations in all ecosystems: „ Skill acquisition in non-farm activities such as industrial trades (fitter, welder), carpentry, masonry, plumbing, electricals and electronics servicing. „ Sheep breeding and dairy, fodder which could be grown within the village even on saline land (subapul, for example, is a salt resistant fodder crop). Several other crops could be grown in brackish water and used as animal fodder. Sheep breeders are less affected by these problems. „ Poultry farming as another alternative livelihood. „ Training in brackish water shrimp and fish farming. „ Sponsoring young boys and girls in employment oriented courses such as industrial training, computer training, science courses, training in NGO activities, English language courses, etc. „ VIC and FM radio services. „ Improving the local library with Tamil and English newspapers for information on education and employment opportunities.

Strategic Notes and Lessons Learned - Key Points to Emphasise „ Compared to the vulnerable groups, those who are unaffected by disasters face lesser impacts due to key behavioural or other differences. These differences, once identified, can be used as points of leverage for removing the same factors that make other groups vulnerable. „ Shared learning dialogues were found to be an extremely useful method to analyse and document risks and vulnerabilities of different groups. These methods also allow the identification of non-land based and non-fishing based livelihood strategies for reducing vulnerability and enabling adaptation.

Keywords: Coastal livelihood, Tamilnadu, climate change, disaster risk reduction. Resource person(s): Dr. S Janakarajan ([email protected]), Madras Institute for Development Studies.

237 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

water-logged and marshy. Already the Introduction Cauvery delta, on the whole, suffers from saltwater intrusion up to five kilometres inland, as well as severe drainage problems. Due to its flat terrain, the region is prone to flooding from drainage canals and sea water, particularly during the October to December monsoon months when most of the monsoon rain falls within a few days and is often combined with People living in Low Elevation Coastal cyclones and high wind storms. Zones, areas within 10 meters above sea-level, are, according to a study In the Nagappattinam District, 90% of carried out by Gordon McGranahan the population consists of small and from the International Institute for marginal farmers with a very high Environment and Development, highly concentration of landless agricultural vulnerable to the impacts of climate labourers. Furthermore, the coastal Coastal cities and change, particularly sea-level rise.1 In region of Tamilnadu is very densely towns of Tamilnadu India, over 63 million people live in this populated (528 people/km2, almost are vulnerable to low elevation zone. Gujarat and double the state average of 372 people/ km2). Pollution and land degradation the impacts of Tamilnadu, where the coasts are over 1,000 km long, will be the most affected from rapid industrialisation along the climate change. states. Orissa and Goa are also highly coastal region, and in particular in the vulnerable to sea-level rise. cities of Chennai and Cuddalore, has further aggravated the situation and Within Tamilnadu, the worst affected made coastal cities and towns more region will be the Cauvery delta, which vulnerable to the impacts of climate encompasses the whole of change. Many chemical, textile, oil Nagappattinam District and parts of refinery, thermal power and fertiliser Cuddalore District. The Cauvery delta’s industries are established along coastal 1,800 year-old irrigation system is a zones for easy disposal of effluents into complex network of rivers, canals and the sea. The predicted impacts of climate drainage systems with thousands of change such as sea-level rise, increasing miles of canals and channels. intensity and frequency of cyclones and Nagappattinam District, which almost storms, coupled with existing entirely lies within the delta, is a narrow anthropogenic factors, will aggravate stretch of land 165 km long and 15-20 this already vulnerable situation. Long- km wide. This district has two major term, non-land based adaptive strategies disadvantages: a) most of the district are needed for the region rather than falls within the low elevation coastal simple engineering solutions.2 zone, and b) 56% of the land also lies below sea-level. A further 18% of the All adaptive measures undertaken to district which is just at sea-level is date have been ad hoc and structural, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

1 The Hindu, March 29, 2007 2 NCRC (2007), Mapping and Study of Coastal Water Bodies in Nagappattinam District.

238 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

with largely no effect. Non-land based, from undertaking the same changes in COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE long-term disaster preparedness, risk order to reduce their vulnerability to reduction strategies and early warning the same impacts. Then we can identify systems have not been part of any strategies that will be able to respond to policy planning framework so far. The local conditions and the incentives of present case study aims to look at the local groups. This idea is being adaptation from a much broader developed as follows: perspective. „ Mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies as part of the regular planning and policy processes. This Objective task involves a comprehensive assessment of risk and This case study examines the vulnerability, identification of challenges of climate change impacts existing coping strategies, and and disaster risk reduction (DRR) developing ways to strengthen the strategies in selected districts of coastal capacities of vulnerable Tamilnadu. It also outlines the communities to respond to these responses made by the people of changes. Tamilnadu governments. The processes „ Establish links between concepts Non-land based, of adaptation currently undertaken and (such as disaster risk reduction and long-term disaster strategies needed to better adapt to adaptation to impacts of climate preparedness, risk future climate change impacts are change), shared learning dialogues reduction strategies discussed in the context of potential as a two-way learning process to rise in sea-level, accelerating sea understand the impacts of climate and early warning erosion, increasing risks from cyclones change and community-based risk systems need to and storms, the ongoing flooding and reduction, and other strategies. be promoted. inundation due to backwater and „ Incorporate climate change freshwater floods, droughts, and information into community-based increasing salinisation of land.3 risk reduction strategies facilitated through shared learning dialogues. „ In order to develop effective Concepts and Key Issues mechanisms for adaptation, identify groups less vulnerable than others Certain behavioural or other attributes to the impacts of climate change and allow some people to remain relatively those factors that constrain or unaffected by the impacts of climate enable different groups to respond change. We need to work with to disaster events. communities to identify these differences in behaviour or other An increase in sea-level implies a major attributes. By doing so, we can identify risk to those whose livelihoods depend points of leverage (policy, on coastal ecosystems. These infrastructure, etc.) for removing the communities will clearly need support constraints that limit affected groups to offset climate change impacts. At a

3 A backwater river is that part of a river, within a delta, that is brackish and represents the interface between freshwater flowing from inland and sea water moving inland as a result of tides, sea-level rise, and a decrease in freshwater flow.

239 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

minimum, the state must play a existing hazards of each area and facilitating role to enable coastal how climate change might impact communities to transition and adapt to these areas. The next section changes to their ecosystems. The discusses the process of shared knowledge and awareness local learning dialogues and vulnerability communities have about climate analyses and describes the key variability and change including its insights obtained. Then a discussion impacts and how they will be affected on the benefits and disadvantages of needs to be identified. strategies identified for pilot Communities implementation plans in each site This chapter first discusses the follows. The final section discusses need support to demographic characteristics, including the project methodology and concepts offset climate livelihood occupations, of each case site. summarising the key insights from change impacts. It then outlines a description of the the current research in Tamilnadu. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

240 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

Bengal than in the Arabian Sea. In COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Tamilnadu: Coastal Area, addition to these hazards, coastal Tamilnadu faced a devastating tsunami in December 2004. The giant sea waves Ecosystems and Vulnerability affected about one million people living in 376 coastal hamlets, killing an estimated 10,000 people. Most of the damage occurred in Cuddalore and Nagappattinam districts. The United Nations-Asian Development Bank- World Bank Joint Assessment Mission Among the coastal states of India, estimated the total direct damage at US$ Tamilnadu’s 1,061 km of coast is the 437.8 million, with an additional second longest. Of the state’s estimated US$ 377 million in loss of approximately 62 million people, about livelihoods.5 29 million live along the thirteen coastal districts4 whose livelihood is dependent The coastal ecology of Tamilnadu, as on marine fishing and fishing in with similar ecosystems elsewhere in The coastal ecology numerous backwaters. In 2003-04, India, is polluted with industrial of Tamilnadu is 381,000 tons of fish were caught in the wastes, groundwater is over-extracted, highly degraded. state, about one quarter of which was sea water ingress and sea erosion are in caught by small fishermen using non- advanced stages, marine resources are mechanised boats. All along the coast, over-exploited, coral reefs and agriculture is another important mangroves are degraded. The threat of livelihood. Tamilnadu’s coastal sea-level rise and other coastal hazards wetlands have high hydrological, substantially aggravate the vulnerability biological and socio-economical values. of the coastal population. Studies indicate that there is a long-term trend The state’s coastal area is exposed to in sea-level rise of about one millimetre a multiple hazards: coastal floods, year, projected to rise to 2.5 mm a year. tsunamis, storm surges, cyclones and This compares to the global trend in sea- strong winds (Map 1). Along with the level rise of 46-59 cm6 over the period of states of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, 2000-2090. This would amount to a 20+ Tamilnadu is most affected by cyclones. cm sea-level rise along India’s coastline According to Kavikumar and for the same period. This is likely to Tholkappian (2006) , India’s eastern represent a minimum since emerging coastal districts (including those in scientific information suggests rates of Tamilnadu) are more vulnerable to sea-level rise may accelerate. Even given coastal disasters than districts on the this low rate of rise, according to west coast. According to the Asian Aggarwal and Lal 0.41% of India’s total Disaster Preparedness Centre, four times coastal area and 4.6% of the coastal more cyclones are formed in the Bay of population (7.1 million people) could be

4 Census data (2001) 5 Krithika Ramalingam, India Resource Center, May 20, 2005. 6 Diksha Aggarwal and Murari Lal: Vulnerability of Indian coastline to sea-level rise, http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/pdfs/ 3dikshas.pdf, accessed May, 2007.

241 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

| MAP 1 | Tamilnadu river basins and districts

ANDHRA PRADESH

TIRUVALLUR CHENNAI

VELLORE (NORTH ARCOT) KANCHEEPURAM (CHENGALPATTU) TIRUVANNAMALAI

KARNATAKA DHARMAPURI

VILUPPURAM

SALEM CUDDALORE ERODE NAMAKKAL PERAMBALUR NAGAPPATTINAM TIRUPPUR TIRUCHCHIRAPPALLI COIMBATORE KARUR THANJAVUR THIRUVARUR

DINDIGUL PUDUKKOTTAI NAGAPPATTINAM

MADURAI TENI SIVAGANGA

VIRUDUNAGAR BAY OF BENGAL KERALA RAMANATHAPURAM

TUTICORIN

TIRUNALVELI

State Boundary KANNIYAKUMARI

Source: S Janakrajan (1999)10

directly affected (TERI, 1996). The most The Tamilnadu coast also sometimes vulnerable areas along the Indian experiences severe cyclonic storms in coastline are the Kutch region of the October-December monsoon Gujarat, Mumbai and South Kerala, (Appendix 1). A study by Antonio deltas of rivers Ganga (West Bengal), Mascarenhas indicates that more than Cauvery (Tamilnadu), Krishna and 1,000 cyclonic events have occurred in Godawari (Andhra Pradesh) and the Bay of Bengal in the last Mahanadi (Orissa). The islands of century.7 Of the documented cyclonic Lakshadweep Archipelago would be storms, 55 crossed the coast of totally lost. In terms of population, Tamilnadu, 69 hit Andhra Pradesh, 58 West Bengal, Maharashtra and affected Orissa and 33 struck West Tamilnadu would be worst affected Bengal . Mascarenhas quotes a study because of their high population by Mani (2000) about historical density. The paper indicates that 0.07 cyclone events in Tamilnadu which million hectares of Tamilnadu’s total shows that one event produced wind coastal area of 13 million hectares are speeds exceeding 250 km/h and likely to be inundated by sea-level rise. caused a 12m storm surge. Table 1 The inundation will affect over 1.62 summarises the information available million people. in Mani’s study. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

7 Dona, P., Need for Setback Lines in Coastal Zone Management: A Meteorological Point of View, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India.

242 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

| TABLE 1 | Wind Speed, Storm Surges and Inland Penetration of Saline Water Associated with Cyclones Along the Coast of Tamilnadu. COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE

Period Area affected Wind speed (km/h) Storm surge height (m) Inland penetration (km) November 1952 South Nagappattinam Not recorded 3 8.0 December 1955 Thanjavur 200 3 to 5 3.0 to 8.0 October 1963 Cuddalore 139 6 Not recorded December 1964 Rameswaram 193 3 to 5 Not recorded December 1967 Nagappattinam 130 Not recorded Thanjavur area November 1978 Ramanathapuram 212 3 to 5 Not recorded November 1991 Near Karaikal 89 Not recorded 0.25 December 1993 Near Karaikal 133 3 to 4 2.0

Source: Mani (2000)

The many types of hazards in coastal source of livelihood is marine fishing, Tamilnadu debilitate the existing supported somewhat by fishing in the livelihoods of the region. Other Uppanar River. A small percentage of challenges include changes in the the population is small vendors, coastal ecosystem, land use patterns construction workers, road builders that are socio-economically and and industrial workers. Fisher folk Many types of environmentally degrading and sea- belong to the community called hazards in coastal level rise and saltwater intrusion into Parvatharaja kulam, which is classified Tamilnadu debilitate coastal aquifers. by the government as the most the existing backward caste. Children as young as 14 stop going to school and are livelihoods of Study Sites involved in fishing activities. Only the region. about 10% of the population has For the purposes of this study, three attempted to diversify into other distinct ecosystems defined by access to sources of livelihood. livelihoods and availability of coastal wetlands were identified. In ecosystem I, Shared learning dialogues were the only livelihood is fishing; conducted in the Sonankuppam area fishing and agriculture are the main of Cuddalore OT. These dialogues livelihoods in ecosystem II, whereas showed that there are only three castes ecosystem III is dominated by dry-land of people in the area. Of the 547 agriculture and backwater fishing. The households in Sonankuppam, 545 particular issues facing each ecosystem belong to the Parvatharaja kulam caste, and the potential impacts of climate with only one each from the scheduled change on each of the sites is discussed caste and the caste of washermen. Of in detail further below. the 545 Parvatharaja kulam caste households, 91% are fishermen and Ecosystem I: Cuddalore Old Town8 7% sell fish. The remaining 2% are Cuddalore Old Town (OT) (Map 2) has a government workers, seamen, weavers, population of about 30,000 whose main small vendors, NGO workers and

8 The response we received from the residents of Cuddalore Old Town was very weak and discouraging. People demanded money for every interview. This new behaviour, known as ‘tsunami money’, is a result of the flow of donations that came after the devastating 2004 tsunami. Nevertheless, the researchers still managed to obtain instructive information.

243 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

| MAP 2 | Cuddalore old town storms and cyclones, but also by increasing pollution. The growth of Cuddalore Old Town has made it one of the most polluted areas. Around thirty industries producing pesticides, Cuddalore New Town pharmaceuticals, dyes and paints discharge their wastes into this ecosystem and their effluents have also polluted the groundwater on which the villagers depend. Ever since they began Devanampatnau operating, in 1980, the local people have Tiruppappulyur been complaining about air, water and land pollution.

Gadilam River The industrial effluent is discharged directly into the Uppanar River, affecting the livelihoods of small fishermen spread over 30 villages along Singarattopu the river’s 28 km stretch. The residents feel that industrial pollution is a slowly unfolding disaster, with the fish catch

Aquaculture having gone down by 80% since the Back Water industries opened. Some species of fish, Barren Land Crop Land Cuddalore Old Town such as sudhumbu, navarai, sura, yeral, Industry Sea and kanavai, have completely Settlement with Vegetation disappeared. Until two decades ago, Tank shrimp catch in the backwaters was Vacant Land 0 1.2 km Waste Land meant for export. Today, there are no shrimp. Whatever fish is caught cannot drivers. Table 2 below shows the be sold because the fish smells of the educational level of the population of chemicals. Instead, the fish is dried and Sonankuppam. sold to poultry feed manufacturers. Over 100,000 people who depended on river Box 1 explains the kinds of problems fishing, small-scale salt production and confronted by children, especially small-scale farming have lost their school dropouts. livelihoods due to the release of untreated industrial effluents. Those The Uppanar is a 30 km-long, backwater who have lost their fishing livelihood river along which 21 fishing hamlets are have become casual labourers. Since the situated. This ecosystem is not only labour market is not guaranteed, they threatened by sea-level rise, coastal face uncertain futures.

| TABLE 2 | Educational Status in Sonankuppam Students who completed Secondary school Final year Number going to

CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL Sex Population Illiterate (%) primary School (%) dropouts (%) dropouts college Male 1240 40 26 23 10 1 Female 1222 41 30 20 8 1

244 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE BOX 1 Problems faced by school dropouts in Sonankuppam

We interviewed Madhavan, a 17 year-old boy who had to drop out of school in the 8th grade. His story is similar to hundreds of other young men of Cuddalore:

As a young boy, he was often late for school because he had to do his share of the household chores. His punishment for being late was to be beaten, which he feared. Then, three years ago, when he was in the 8th grade, his father suffered a fishing accident and became physically handicapped. Madhavan was forced to work to earn the family income, and became a coolie fisherman. But Madhavan does not like fishing. He gets up at 3 a.m. every morning and spends anywhere from seven hours to one week out at sea. The owner of the boat he operates does not allow him to return from sea empty-handed. When the sea is rough, Madhavan prays for his life, vouching never to go out again; but he has no alternative. Handling the fishing net is not easy, and yet, “I will be scolded and abused if I do a bad job” he told us. Fishing is difficult and very tiring, and yet, as soon as he returns from sea he cannot rest but must immediately lay out the net to dry, or else the next fishing trip will be delayed. On the day of our interview with him, Madhavan had gone out to sea at 3 a.m. and returned at 10 a.m. with two edachi fish weighing four kilos each. The Rs. 400 obtained from their sale was divided into three shares – one for the boat owner, one for the net owner, and the last equally divided among five labourers. Madhavan’s own share was Rs. 40, which he gave to his parents. Madhavan is determined to see his 13 year- old sister, currently in grade 9, complete school.

These same chemical industries also Ecosystems II and III: combined release volatile organic compounds characteristics which have polluted the air to the Ecosystems II and III are the most point of causing chronic respiratory common on the Tamilnadu coast. Both problems such as throat infections, fishing and agricultural populations constant headaches, tuberculosis, exist here. As a result, unlike in the first dermatological problems, ecosystem, villages are made up of gastroenteritis, early tooth decay multiple castes. Furthermore, these (even in children), miscarriages and villages are larger and their populations high incidences of irregular distributed across many hamlets (Table menstruation. We even came across 3). The population densities of 910/km2 eight young cancer patients. Many in Vanagiri and 726/km2 in complained that even cooked food Pushpavanam villages are higher and the water they drink smells and compared to the state and national that children sometimes vomit after averages of 528/km2 and 272/km2 eating. We observed in every village of respectively. The characteristics and Cuddalore OT that relatively new livelihoods of the selected villages of buckets (less than six months old) ecosystems II and III are described in used to store groundwater were red detail below. Each hamlet in each from chemical residue. Until 1990, village is separated by caste and by good quality groundwater was livelihood, with fisher folk living on the available below 10 feet. Today, the coast and farmers inland. There has water table has dropped and the long been animosity between fishing quality of the water is too poor to and farming communities, such that the drink. Proposals for a new textile two do not mix. The main risks park, a PVC plant (Chemplast) and a confronted by different social groups of petroleum refinery (Nagarjuna) Vanagiri, Pitchavaram and TS Petai threaten further environmental villages are the same mentioned earlier degradation. for Ecosystem I.

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| TABLE 3 | Population, Number of Households and Hamlets, and Size of the Selected Villages in Ecosystems II and III

Population Number of Number of Total area Population Ecosystem and village Male Female Total households Hamlets (km2) Density (per km2) Ecosystem II 3,670 3,622 7,292 1,623 9 8.01 910 Vanagiri Ecosystem II 554 569 1,124 281 2 3.17 354 TS Pettai Ecosystem II 2,550 2,500 5,050 614 6 6.64 384 Pitchavaram Ecosystem III 3,150 3,100 6,250 1,779 11 8.60 726 Pushpavanam

The Kollidam, the main flood barrier of TS Pettai. The main crop, paddy, is now the Cauvery River is breached at least only cultivated once a year. Groundnut once every five years causing total loss once yielded 25 to 30 bags of pods (one of crops in TS Pettai and Pitchavaram bag weighs 40 kgs) per acre but now only villages. These villages are located at the yields 10 to 15 bags per acre. Groundnut tail end of the Cauvery delta where is sensitive to climate conditions: both The suitability of water drains into the sea. There are a excessive heat and too much water lower certain crops comes good number of backwater rivers whose the groundnut yield. The suitability of into question in a floods inundate agricultural land this crop comes into question in a changing climate during dry months (March–September) changing climate context. when the Cauvery drainage canals are context. dry. Furthermore, sea water floods these Ecosystem II: Fishing and agriculture are agricultural lands, greatly increasing the two major livelihood activities for the land and groundwater salinity. 50 years villages of TS Pettai and Pitchavaram in ago, the arrangement in the Cauvery Chidambaram taluk, Cuddalore District delta was to let tail end regions receive and Vanagiri village in Sirkazhi taluk, irrigation water first. This practice has Nagappattinam District. Most of this enabled farmers to start cultivation in ecosystem lies within the deltaic region of June. But, with less water available in the Cauvery River. Besides coastal the Cauvery River, farmers upstream flooding, high flows in the Cauvery River violate the practice and irrigate their and its numerous backwater tributaries fields. As a result, arrival of water to the cause inundation, the natural flooding farmers in the delta is often delayed cycle of the Cauvery River having been until September, which coincides with altered by upstream interventions. The the northeast monsoon. The canals act use and allocation of the Cauvery water as flood conveyers and damage the is an issue of heated dispute between the crops. The original seasons of kuruvai states of Tamilnadu and Karnataka. Since and samba have disappeared; paddy the late 1970s, the river acquired a and groundnut (winter crops) are seasonal character (it was perennial cultivated in the navarai season starting before), remaining dry for over six months in December and ending in April-May. of the year. This change in the river’s Even one heavy spell of rainfall hydrology has increased the occurrence CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL inundates land and it can take months of flooding from the sea and has for the floodwaters to recede. This aggravated salinisation of the land and occurs more often in Pitchavaram and groundwater, making drinking water

246 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

scarce. This salinisation and reduction | MAP 3 | Pushpavanam village COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE in freshwater flow is also threatening the 3,500-acre Pitchavaram mangrove forest.

Ecosystem III: In this ecosystem, the main livelihood is agriculture, while marine fishing supports a small section of the local population. Pushpavanam (Map 3) is surrounded by backwater rivers on three sides. Although the PUSHPAVANAM village lies within the delta, gravity flow irrigation from the Cauvery River is impossible because it is at a higher Bay of Bengal elevation. In the immediate post- monsoon period, the groundwater level is about 10 feet underground. In the summer months, the level drops and the Inundated Areas Bult-up Area water salinity increases. As a result, Cashew drinking water is dangerously scarce Mud Flat and irrigation very difficult. Crops are Plantation mostly rain-fed and paddy crops are 0 2.50 500m planted by directly sowing the seeds rather than transplanting seedlings. Sea water flooding is a constant threat. Inundation by Drainage congestion and floods add to sea water is Nagappatinam District: On the whole, poverty and food insecurity. The leading to the district of Nagappattinam (most of it absence of access to credit means that salinisation of lies either below sea-level or between people have nothing to hedge against 0-5 m above sea-level) and one taluk of these debilitating factors, and this adds soil and Cuddalore District (where all four to their stress. People are forced to groundwater. villages selected in Ecosystems II and III migrate and seek livelihoods in casual are located) are vulnerable to inland employment. In particular, the most (from the Cauvery River) and sea water affected are the landless agricultural flooding. Sea water inundation is labourers and small and marginal leading to salinisation of soil and farmers, comprising about 85% of the groundwater and the situation is likely total agricultural population in to continue because of the complete lack Nagappattinam District.9 Because they of drainage over a large stretch of land belong to deprived castes, the situation in the Cauvery delta. The farmers say is more serious. Money lenders charge that even though normal rainfall in interest rates of up to 120% per year and Nagappattinam District is only 970 mm, further exploit the situation. lack of drainage and sea water flooding gives the impression of very heavy Vanagiri (Ecosystem II): 7,292 people rainfall. Since several parts of this live in 1,623 households distributed district are below sea-level, the flooding over 9 hamlets. There is very little damage is serious diversification of livelihood in Vanagiri:

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| MAP 4 | Vanagiri village engage in non-farm activities, and 43% are fishermen and also engage in non- fishing activities such as construction. About 20 people from this village work in Singapore, Saudi Arabia or Dubai, indicating that there is some diversification of livelihood. About 120 men also seasonally migrate to Kerala for agricultural work and fifty families have settled in Ahmedabad, working in an asbestos cement factory. In addition, many have become construction workers and traders. This diversification in livelihood has resulted Bay of Bengal in a shortage of agricultural labourers in TS Pettai. Sattlement Crop land Pitchavaram (Ecosystem II): This Fallow land Accacia plantation village is known for its mangrove Casuina plantation forests, governed by the forest Other plantation Scrub land department. The village has six hamlets Salt affected land with a total population of just over Sandy area 5,000. There is less livelihood River Tank diversification here than in TS Pettai: Aquaculture 0 1.5 km farmers make up over 60% of the Inundated area population, landless agricultural labourers 15%, construction workers (and other non-farm livelihoods) 15%, Money lenders over 90% of the population is engaged with small businessmen, fishermen and charge interest in the traditional livelihoods of farming, traders making up the rest. 75% of the rates of up to dairy or fishing, 8% are landless agricultural land has turned saline or 120% per year agricultural labourers and 0.7% are brackish due to sea water ingress. and further wholesale fish merchants. Fully 374 households in this village are headed by Pushpavanam (Ecosystem III): Unlike exploit the women (widows), over half of which the three other villages, Pushpavanam is situation. belong to the fishing community. This a dry village with no access to irrigation. attests to the fact that the mortality rate The majority of the population is either among fishermen is high. About 50% of farmers (38%) or landless agricultural the agricultural land has turned saline labourers (42%), while 9% are fishermen or brackish. and the rest small traders or construction workers. 68% of the TS Pettai (Ecosystem II): 41% of the households live below the poverty line. people of TS Pettai are farmers who also Paddy is the main crop which is grown engage in non-farm activities, 16% are using the broadcasting method. This CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL landless agricultural labourers who also village is surrounded by backwater

9 Based on the study by NCRC

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rivers on three sides and by the Bay of designing and implementing of COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Bengal on the fourth side. Both drought adaptive strategies. and flood affect the village. Excessive heat and drought conditions create a SLDs for this research were organised at famine-like situation. Cyclonic rainfall various levels. First a series of SLDs at brings floods and destroys huts. With the village level were organised with each cyclone, sea water ingress various socio-economic groups; the contributes to salinisation of the land number of participants varied between and groundwater. four and 20. With each round of SLD, as new insights emerged, new questions The monsoon is erratic and rainfall were added and others dropped. untimely. In the past, the Aadi (mid- Second, at district level SLDs, insights June) rain was accurate and timely, gained from village level SLDs were helping the broadcast method of shared. sowing. But in the last 10 years, there is either no or uncertain rainfall in the Key issues discussed and information month of Aadi. In addition, the north- gathered at village level SLDs are used east monsoon brings excessive rainfall to understand the sequence of disasters in a few days, flooding the land. This is and level of vulnerability of different true of all other villages selected for this socio-economic groups. They are also study. used to better understand the behaviour Shared learning of monsoons, changes in agricultural dialogues are an seasons, crop patterns and productivity, effective method Shared Learning Dialogue and poverty and inequality, demographic for scoping, Vulnerability Analysis characteristics and changes in designing and occupational characteristics. Other Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) insights gained include factors that implementing of The emerging climate change context constrain occupational mobility, asset adaptive strategies. warrants a community-based approach ownership and losses due to disasters, for gathering information and offering the coping strategies in times of disaster risk reduction strategies – both in the and the responses of NGOs and short and long run. Furthermore, governments, local knowledge of information gathered through research weather, modes of communication and from various sources should be necessary early warning systems. The disseminated to community members details concerning community-based through a two-way dialogue. The organisation, measures needed to unique feature of shared learning strengthen them and factors contribute dialogues is that it is an interactive to the safety of those unaffected by exercise involving various disasters were also obtained. Insights stakeholders/agencies such as gathered were used to understand the government, private sector, non- specific vulnerability and develop government and community members. strategies for risk reduction. The process provides a platform for sharing information so that the Participants at the district level SLDs approach to DRR can be broadened included the district disaster through wider participation. SLDs are management officer, officials from the an effective methodology for scoping, fire service, forest department and

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insurance companies, an officer from the state level SLDs attended by state NABARD (The National Bank for level officers such as the Relief Agriculture and Rural Development), a Commissioner, Revenue Secretary, soil scientist from the agricultural officials from the meteorology research center, the director of the department, officers from insurance Insights gathered Coordination and Resource Center at groups and banks, NGOs, researchers, were used to Nagappatinam, several NGOs, a local state level and district level fishermen understand the cable television operator, mobile and farmers’ leaders. The number of specific operators, farmers and fishermen and participants varied from 2 to 30. women from self-help groups (SHGs). Discussions at all SLDs at all levels vulnerability and Altogether, forty participants attended were recorded and transcribed in Tamil develop strategies the day-long workshop. Insights and translated into English for for risk reduction gathered from these SLDs were taken to information sharing. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

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the impacts of cyclones, sea water COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Key Issues and fresh water floods, and land and groundwater salinity. „ Floods and cyclones are annual phenomena but to what extent local administrative measures are capable of handling these disasters in a sustainable manner is a question without easy answers. „ To avoid inundation on agricultural land, farmers suggested that Tail As illustrated by the bullet points End Regulators be constructed on below, many issues were raised in the streams where they meet the ocean. district and state level SLDs. These „ Farmers also suggested that bunds issues, as might be expected in an initial on both sides of the Cauvery meeting on climate change and the drainage rivers should be anticipated impacts in coastal regions, strengthened with appropriate touched on a very wide range of control structures. Other This mix of ideas, in problems and local perceptions suggestions to directly control the effect, represents a regarding potential solutions. What is impact of storms included: (1) desilt starting point for most important to recognise from the drainage channels, strengthen bunds, create new canals, bed dam evolving common points raised is the mix of conventional “solutions” to emerging problems to save water; (2) sand dunes need to understanding of (people, for example, often called for be protected (at the moment they are both emerging embankments to protect coastal regions) being destroyed) and (3) tanks need problems and and more innovative, locally-tailored to be de-silted and drainage potential response strategies. The discussions also identified improved. strategies. many of the limitations associated with „ In response to the impact of storms current strategies. This mix of ideas, in and the Asian Tsunami, there was effect, represents a starting point for substantial discussion regarding the evolving common understanding of both kinds of houses that should be emerging problems and potential constructed for people who live close response strategies. to the sea. Reinforced cement concrete (RCC) construction is not good enough since the steel corrodes District Level SLD quickly. Many suggested tiled houses to cope with the corrosion problem; „ Inundation has lead to chronic but a few also argued that from the salinity of soil and groundwater, and point of view of coping with cyclones lack of drainage is the major source of and high-speed winds, RCC houses vulnerability in a large portion of the are far better. Cauvery delta. „ In order to respond to land and „ Thalaignanirru is below sea-level. groundwater salinity problems, the The 27 rivers in this district are flood development of new farming carriers. systems is necessary. People should „ Agricultural yield and production explore the possibility of cultivating has come down by at least 50% due to salt resistant crops. Traditional

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varieties of paddy are more suitable „ Where responses to the Asian for salt water. One should explore all tsunami are concerned, fishermen possible indigenous technologies to have been affected due to excessive combat and remove the salinity distribution of boats in each village as problem in the Nagappattinam part of the recovery effort. Traditional District. methods using catamarans produced „ The absence of access to credit for good fish catches in comparison to vulnerable fishing and farming current methods. Fish stocks are groups during times of distress declining due to intensive and (following storms or droughts) was competitive fishing using modern identified as a major constraint in boats and nets. their recovery. „ In response to depleting fishing „ Lack of drinking water and sanitation stocks, the fishermen debated was identified as a major factor increasing incubation periods from accentuating the impact of disasters. the current 45 days to sixty days. „ The unavailability of accurate Such strategies were discussed as weather predictions was expressed important both in response to current as a major concern particularly for declining stocks and the The unavailability of fishing communities. Existing sustainability of fishing livelihoods accurate weather weather information is considered as part of responses to climate predictions is a inaccurate. Only obvious warnings change. „ major concern for at obvious times are issued. Timely In response to the Asian tsunami, and accurate predictions are there was substantial debate regarding fishing communities. necessary to help the fishing compensation policies. There was population that depends on local particular focus on the asset based knowledge for 90% of its weather compensation package that has been forecast needs. promoted and whether or not it solves „ The creation of a separate fishing medium-term and long-term problems. cooperative society similar to the Though controversial, many still existing agricultural cooperative supported asset based compensation societies was demanded as a key „ Partnerships between NGOs and the element that would help fishing government has been rewarding. communities meet both immediate needs and respond to the impacts of climate related disasters. State Level SLD „ Available insurance coverage is viewed as very restrictive. A much Key issues emerging from the SLDs broader insurance coverage for both conducted at lower levels were fishermen and farmers was sought as discussed at the state level SLD. The a key element that would assist them state level SLD (a one-day workshop) in dealing with climate risks. was attended by state level officers such „ Farmers and fishermen expressed as the Relief Commissioner, Revenue concern about the viability of existing Secretary, officials from the meteorology livelihoods. As a result, capacity department, officers from insurance CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL building for better livelihoods and groups and banks, NGOs, researchers, greater mobility in non-fishing and state level and district level fishermen non-farm activites were demanded. and farmers’ leaders.

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Key issues discussed at the state level „ The strengths and weaknesses of the COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE SLD were: community in relation to opportunities and threats confronted. „ The community’s experiences in handling or responding to coastal Further, the following issues in relation extreme events such as storms, floods to adaptation were discussed: and tsunamis. „ The community’s collective strengths „ What kind of adaptation policy and and weaknesses, and the prevalence framework should there be for the of community organisations and immediate, medium and long term. their strengths. „ How to integrate adaptation in key Farmers and „ The evolution of adaptation strategies policy-making and planning process. fishermen undertaken by the community over a „ How to make the adaptation policy expressed concern period of time. framework proactive and ensure risk „ Local knowledge in disaster management is from the bottom up. about the viability preparedness, early warnings and „ How to engage all concerned of their existing disaster mitigation. stakeholders in the decision-making. livelihoods.

| FIGURE 1 | SLDs at different levels

Ecosystem -1 Ecosystem -2 Ecosystem -3

Cuddalore-OT Cluster Pushpavanam Vanagiri SLD 1/2/3

TS Perral Pitchavaram SLD 1/2/3 SLD 1/2/3 SLD 1 SLD 2 SLD 3 SLD 1/2/3

District level SLD

State level SLD

Specialized Institute level SLD

IIT Anna UniversityNational Institute of Insurance Co National Bank for Ocean Technology Agriculture Research Development

State level SLD

Village level SLD

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As discussions progressed, a wider array Analysis of SLD Results of issues and response strategies were raised. From purely structural control, discussions moved onto livelihoods. Issues related to the sustainability of fisheries and the tolerance to salinity in agricultural systems, for example, are potential points of entry for adaptive changes to existing livelihoods as opposed to measures to protect existing ones. As a result, the SLDs represented a Discussions at the district and state starting point for identifying very level SLDs identified issues and practical courses of action that could potential response strategies that in assist local communities in dealing with some cases reflect the standard water both existing problems and the emerging control measures already in practice consequences of climate change. Some of and in other cases offer new the actions proposed appear at a first to alternatives. As might be expected, be removed from issues of climate The formation of discussions on salinity and the impact adaptation, but could ultimately prove cooperative of storms initially led to calls for the pivotal. The formation of cooperative societies for construction of tidal regulators. Several societies for fishermen, for example, responds primarily to an immediate fishermen, for such regulators have been constructed in the area over recent decades. They need. The formation of such societies example, are, as a result, already a known and that would serve as a nodal point for responds accepted feature that people are well managing fisheries and introducing new primarily to a aware of. However, many of the practices as sea-level rise inundates more current need. existing regulators are in poor shape land could, however, be critical in and, whether or not this would actually adaptating to new realities. The ability help control salinity, reconstruction to organise has, after all, been identified would be a clear and tangible activity. as central to adaptive capacity. As illustrated in Box 2, which details debates over shrimp farming, the problems with intensive use of shallow coastal waters are complex.

© S Janakrajan Organisations that can gradually build the technical and institutional capabilities to overcome such problems are central to the ability of fishing populations to adapt to climate change.

Overall, the SLDs provided a mechanism to start the process of identifying courses of action for responding to climate change and other hazards in ways that reflect the CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL insights of both local communities and Floods in Cauvery River 2005 external actors. More specifically, the SLDs resulted in the identification of key

254 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE BOX2 The shrimp farming debate

Intensive use of shallow backwater and coastal marine resources is seen by many as a core need in responding to the sea- level rise that is likely to occur as a result of climate change. As the discussion below on shrimp farming illustrates, however, the development of sustainable systems faces major challenges.

In 1991, a company called Fencer Eral first started shrimp farming in 100 acres of wetland in Vanagiri, one of the study villages. The company bought 80 acres of Thasil Pannai and another 20 acres of land. After 10 years, the company incurred losses for various reasons. At present the company has leased the farm out to an individual from Dharmakulam village. There are a few other shrimp farms of between 2 and 9 acres. Many schedule caste farmers have sold their land to shrimp farms because their land and groundwater have turned saline.

Costs and Benefits of shrimp farming in all selected villages: Stage I Fertile land yields 30 bags (60 kg each) of paddy per acre per season, and, when possible, there two harvests per year. Stage II When land turns saline, only 15 bags of paddy/acre is produced and only once a year. Stage III When land was converted into shrimp farming (in 1991) the yield from one acre was 1,000 kg of shrimp with a value of Rs. 400,000 from an initial investment of Rs. 200,000 per acre. However, the harvest value has gone down due to insect attack. Currently, the same initial investment only gives a profit of Rs. 25,000 per acre. Stage IV What happened to those who sold their lands to shrimp farmers? Most of them did not buy land elsewhere and spent the money either in settling debts or on household needs. They have been forced to turn to farming or non-farm casual work.

One of the most important requirements of shrimp farming is good drainage for discharging effluent and proximity to an inlet to pump brackish water. If these facilities exist, irrespective of land quality, shrimp farmers are willing to pay a good price. Land that is saline but without drainage has very low value.

Overall, shrimp farming does produce high returns from inundated lands – at least initially. As currently practiced, however, it is far from sustainable.

points of vulnerability and a wide range do often hit the coast when a warning Cyclone warnings of potential response strategies. has been issued, many do not. Villagers are issued only Vulnerabilities identified are detailed need accurate and timely information when there is a below and lead into the final section on regarding the start of the monsoon, daily threat of a potential response strategies and their weather information, the number of costs and benefits. rainy days and early warning of cyclone hitting cyclones. Currently, people use the coast within community television, panchayat Tom 48 hours. Key Points of Vulnerability Tom, cable television or temple bell ringing as communication channels Weather Information: Local weather during times of disaster. Other channels information is the same for all the on which people rely are Karaikal FM, villages selected for this study. If clouds Kodaikanal FM, other FM radio news, are moving fast, there could be a television, newspapers and cable cyclone. If there is a high tide out at sea, television. Existing access to television cyclone or heavy rains are possible. The and telephone are given in Table 6. weather information given by the Indian However, local knowledge such as cool Meteorological Department is winds, bird movements, roughness of unreliable, untimely and inadequate. the sea and cloud clusters seem more Cyclone warnings are issued only when reliable for many than the weather there is a threat of a cyclone hitting the bulletins issued by the state coast with in 48 hours. While cyclones meteorological department

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| TABLE 4 | Risks, Short-term and Long-term Coping Strategy and Potential Costs and Benefits of Remedial Measures as Perceived by Different Social Groups. The most important Ranking of remedial measures during SLDs Village name; Type of risks faced by each (1=least expensive, 10=most expensive) the social/ community, in order of Present coping strategy Long-term strategies Short-term Long-term economic group priority for each risk factor sought Cost benefit benefit Vanagiri 1. Floods 1. Migrating to other 1. Small shutters 6 8 8 Social Group 1 2. Sea water inundation villages / towns either 2. Concrete sea wall 10 9 10 and salinisation of land for agricultural or non- 3. Cyclone shelter 7 7 5 SC women , farm and groundwater farm work. 4. Mangrove forest 7 9 10 labourers, small and 3. Cyclones and storms 2. Working in Shrimp marginal farming farmers 3. Borrowing money

Social Group 2 1. Cyclones 1. Seeking temporary 1. Cyclone shelter 8 8 10 Fishing population 2. Floods shelter in schools 2. Concrete sea wall 10 10 10 3. Rough seas 2. Borrowing money 3. Community radio 4. Trawlers 3. Government hand-outs 4. Mangrove forest 4 9 7 5 VIC 6 10 10 5 5 8

Social Group 3 1. Floods in the Cauvery 1. Seeking non-farm 1. Three tail-end 8 8 9 and the untimely work and migration regulators availability of water 2. Growing alternative 2. Government should Non-SC small farmers / 2. Sea water flooding and crops ensure water supply to (men and women) salinisation of land and 3. Borrowing from tail-end villages first groundwater money lenders 3. Strengthen banks of 8 10 10 3. Cyclones backwater rivers 4. Lack of sanitation 4. Protecting waterways 5 6 8 and lagoons 5 Removing salinity on 6 10 10 the land

Pushpavanam 1. Sea water inundation 1. Seeking non-farm 1. Build a series of tail- 8 6 9 Social group 1 2. Droughts work and migration end regulators SC labourers and 2. Working in shrimp 2. Training for non-farm 6 10 10 farmers 3. Flooding in the farms jobs backwater rivers 3. Borrowing money 3. Silt removal from the 7 10 10 drainage rivers

Social group 2 1. Sea water inundation 1. Migrating to other 1. Small shutters 7 5 8 Farmers belonging to 2. Droughts villages / districts for backward castes 3. Floods agricultural or other 2. Try to get Cauvery 10 7 8 work River water for 2. Borrowing money irrigation which can from others also reduce soil 3. Breeding sheep salinity 8 6 10 3. Desilt the drainage canals Pushpavanam 1. Cyclones 1. Seeking temporary 8 10 10 Social group 3 2. Flooding in the shelter in schools and 1. Cyclone relief shelter 8 10 10 Fishing backwater rivers govt. relief measures 2. Mangrove forest 10 10 10 population 3. Rough Seas 2. Borrowing money 3. Concrete sea wall 3. Borrowing money

TS Pettai 1. Salinisation of land and Migration and seeking 1. Shutters in backwater 5 10 10 Social group 1 groundwater due to sea non-farm jobs; rivers Small and marginal water floods a few have tried shrimp 2. Training for non-farm 8 10 10 farmers 2. Droughts farming, unsuccessfully; jobs 3. Cyclones seeking government support.

Pichavaram 1. Salinisation of land and 1. Growing alternative 1. Shutters 5 10 10 Social group 1 groundwater due to sea crops 2. Strengthening river 10 10 10 Small and medium water floods 2. Migrating to towns bunds farmers 2. Droughts and cities to seek 3. Desilting and 3. Lack of sanitation construction work strengthening CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL backwater rivers 7 10 10

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After the tsunami, a Village Information village depending on the intensity of the COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Center (VIC) was started in Vanagiri cyclone. Although many concrete with internet connection for access to houses were built after the tsunami, daily news and weather information hundreds of huts are threatened by announced (three times a day) through a cyclones. Hundreds of nets, boats and public address system. DHAN catamarans need additional heavy Foundation runs a community radio in investments for replacements and Vanagiri but people have no knowledge repairs. Total asset losses range from about this station. Both farmers and Rs. 2 to 10 lakhs (1 lakh = 100,000) fishermen report that Karaikal FM is depending on the severity of the cyclone. useful and informative. DHAN On average, during each cyclone year, Foundation has also started a VIC in one fisherman borrows up to Rs. 4,000 Pushpavanam village also transmitting or Rs. 5,000 for repairs and news and weather information three times a day through public address system. Backwater river in Cuddalore OT © S Janakrajan Insurance: Very few people have any life insurance. Most do not pay the premiums regularly. In Pushpavanam, however, 50% of people do have life insurance policies and regularly pay their premiums. There are three life insurance agents residing in this village. Crop insurance is possible only if money is borrowed from the agricultural cooperative society for the main crop grown during the samba season. However, in all the villages, the samba season is non-existant due to changes in irrigation patterns and the late arrival of Cauvery River water. As a result, most farmers cannot get a loan from the agricultural cooperative society or buy

crop insurance. © S Janakrajan

Asset Loss: In each cyclone period, the boats and nets of the fishing population are seriously damaged. Each fisherman spends a minimum of Rs. 20,000 for repairs, borrowed from money lenders and wholesale fish merchants at high interest rates. As a result, in each village close to 25% of fishermen are in perpetual indebtedness. During every cyclone period hundreds of huts are Inundated land in TS Pettai destroyed, the total loss ranging from Rs. 50,000.00 to Rs.100,000.00 per

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replacements. In some cases, they happens but is rarely reported. borrow up to Rs. 20,000. Furthermore, finding open space for defecation has become more difficult Livestock: Cyclones cause loss of since the boom in house construction livestock and chicken. The average loss after the tsunami when the government per household is around Rs.500. freely distributed land to the landless. Women of Vanagiri, Pitchavaram and Damage to crops: Most cyclones and TS Pettai villages are demanding toilets. floods result in total loss of crops. The loss per acre is in the order of Rs. 2,500 Land value: Changes in land value to Rs. 3,500. (gain or loss) over a period of 20 years gives a reasonably good picture of the Drinking water supply: Drinking water vulnerability farmers face. In almost all supply is disrupted during floods, selected villages, the value of land has cyclones and droughts. The disruption steeply declined due to salinisation and Hundreds of poses a constant threat to livelihoods. flooding. However, even saline land is nets, boats and sold for shrimp farmers for a good catamarans need Sanitation: Only a few households have price, but only if such plots have an heavy toilets and a majority of people defecate inlet for pumping brackish water in in the open. The most affected are and an outlet for draining effluent out. investments for women and teenage girls who are forced The plots located close to backwater replacements to walk for miles, even at night, to find rivers are preferred for shrimp farming and repairs. privacy. Rape and sexual abuse (see Table 5).

| TABLE 5 | Changes in the Value of Land per Acre in (Rs)

Land/acre Acres of land sold to shrimp farming Value 20 Current value of Current value of Near Far from Village years ago unaffected land saline land backwater backwater Vanagiri 20,000 100,000 5,000 60,000 30,000 Pushpavanam 80,000 150,000 50,000 1,75,000 100,000 Pitchavaramn and 25,000 100,000 15,000 100,000 Demand for shrimp farming TS Pettai decreasing so no value here CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

258 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

constrained because they lack the skills. COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Strategies Identified Still, a good number of young people have migrated to towns and cities; some even to Middle East countries and Malaysia, working in the construction industry, cleaning toilets, rearing camels, laying roads and as servants. It is said that they are heavily in debt and unable to send money to their dependents back home. Hundreds of people are cheated by recruiting agents. Our analysis of potential strategies starts with the current coping During lean periods almost all fisherfolk mechanisms that people use to borrow money from any available overcome vulnerabilities outlined above. source (money lenders, pawnbrokers These existing strategies represent key and mortgaging of jewels). They also points of entry for bringing together borrow from friends and relatives. Some external and internal perspectives on depend on remittances from relatives adaptation to hazards and climate risks working in cities. Worst, small fish in coastal areas. vendors (mostly widows who turn to small fish business after they lose their husbands) borrow at interest rates up to Fisher Community 120 % per annum from thandal (specialised money lenders living in People are increasingly interested in towns whose targeted customers are getting their children educated. The small and marginal fishermen, small level of literacy has gone up over the last business people etc.). Borrowing money two decades; school enrolment figures is a standard coping mechanism. confirm this trend. People also express interest in changing occupation but feel Everybody buys rice at a subsidised price of Rs. 2 per kg which is considered a big boon. On average, each person Fishermen in action in anchored boats consumes 750 grams of rice a day. Suji

© S Janakrajan and wheat are also purchased at a subsidised price. During lean seasons, many people go without food for many days.

During times of heavy floods and cyclones, people move to school buildings or cyclone relief centres. After the tsunami the use of mobile phones substantially increased. However, it was reported that small scale fishermen (who use fibre boats or catamarans) cannot use mobile phones while at sea because the phones get wet. But for

259 „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

those using trawlers, mobile phones are disasters for feeding the local useful. community. Fights, heated arguments and even violent actions seem to be a standard feature in fishing communities Strengthening Village Level (within as well as between villages). On Organisations the other hand, unity is common too. Orders from the panchayat are respected. Informal associations among fishing Many informal associations have villages is an integral part of social life. savings ranging from Rs.25,000 to a few These local level institutions play a hundred thousands rupees. One of the crucial role during times of distress. The main functions of the panchayat (formal associations are generally headed by or informal) is to settle local disputes. wealthier fishermen with better access to The panchayat also protects the members communication. These fishermen are and their families from any kind of articulate and possess organisational outside disturbances. The panchayat is skills and some political clout. These empowered to exercise actions to punish associations exist alongside formal those who violate rules. The fine ranges panchayats. These informal mechanisms from one rupee to Rs.1,000 depending Local level are more powerful with office bearers on the nature of the violation. such as a president, secretary and institutions play a treasurer to safeguard funds collected The most important aspect of the crucial role from members and to strengthen the informal panchayat is its organised, during times of association. This money is used during collective capacity to cope and bargain distress. festivals and after cyclones and other with outsiders, including government © S Janakrajan CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

SLD in progress in TS Pettai

260 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

officials, during times of cyclone relief government has begun issuing social COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE distribution, which was well security cards to those living below the demonstrated in the post tsunami poverty line. The card is expected to period. But they still lack the capacity to help them obtain assistance for deliver relief and rehabilitation support. marriages, compensation in cases of Their capacity needs to be strengthened accidental death, assistance to meet through access to better information on funeral expenses, assistance during weather and climate. Fishermen in pregnancy and abortions, education backwater regions are considered subsidies for dependent children, and inferior to marine fishermen. They may old-age pensions. A large number, not become members of the informal however, borrow from friends and panchayat, and there are no efforts to relatives and mostly from money help them organise. There is, however, lenders. In recent years, rice has been no animosity between these two groups. sold at Rs.2 per kg and each family card-holder is eligible to buy 20 kg of During the post tsunami period, a rice per month. This arrangement helps separate committee was formed in many daily wage earners and small and villages to coordinate the relief and marginal farmers to survive during rehabilitation work in the hamlets. time of drought and flood. Most Cases of mismanagement of relief aid importantly, self-help groups provide Local institutions have been reported. Some openly support for these very poor people who criticise this corruption during otherwise depend on money lenders to lack capacity to meetings, but others negotiate with the meet their financial needs. deliver relief and committee for personal gains. In some rehabilitation cases, villagers have jailed Tsunami Due to inundation from sea water and support. Relief Committee Members (who are part the resulting salinity, many farmers of village panchayats) for mishandling have shifted to salt and flood resistant tsunami relief resources. varieties of paddy such as kar and uyyakondan. Many others have shifted Farming Communities in to coconut, casurina and mango Ecosystems II and III plantation. Saltwater intrusion affects Schedule caste people, landless plots near the Uppanaru River. Shrimp agricultural labourers and small and farming on poramboke land marginal farmers (who are most severely (government land) has also contributed affected by coastal hazards, floods in the to salinity, which has forced Cauvery River or erratic drought landowners along the river to either conditions) keep migrating, daily, convert to shrimp farming or sell their seasonally or permanently. Many have land to shrimp farmers. Converting to migrated to Kerala, Bangalore and shrimp farming appears to be an Gujarat, taking up all kinds of non-farm alternative livelihood in salt affected jobs. But most of them work as areas, but small and marginal construction labourers. In TS Pettai and landholders cannot withstand both the Pitchavaram, about 80% of small and initial investment and high marginal farmers seek jobs in maintenance cost involved in shrimp construction. To a lesser extent farming. Farmers who have sold lands migration also takes place out of to outsiders for shrimp farming have Vanagiri and Pushpavanam. The state spent the money in meeting household

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and health expenses. They end up being plan, although the preference is for landless labourers. ‘structural’ strategies. One example is the fishermen’s demand for cold storage Irrespective of whether the livelihood is facilities to store fish and be able to sell fishing or agricultural, coping them at a later date. They also demand mechanisms and strategies depend on good drinking water and sanitation the facilities available in the villages (see facilities. Other expressed needs are Table 6). prevention of pollution in backwater rivers and better housing. Similarly, most people among the farming Strategies Identified communities mentioned that shutters in various backwater rivers would prevent Affected people have expressed mixing of sea water with freshwater. innovative strategies which could form They also argued that the shutters a part of a long-term adaptive strategy would prevent periodic flooding of

| TABLE 6 | Facilities Available Type of infrastructural facility Vanagiri TS Pettai Pitchavaram Pushpavanam panchayat office 1 1 1 1 Community hall 2 1 1 6 Library 2 1 1 1 Ration shop 2 1 2 2 Noon-meal center for children 2 1 2 2 Day care center: Government 2 1 3 2 NGO 0 1 3 Drinking water: Public taps 70 20 52 Hand pumps 43 8 53 188 Private taps 46 30 60 0 Overhead tanks 7 1 4 2 Primary health center 2 1 (unused) 1 2 Wireless and public address system 1 1 1 1 Schools: Primary School 2 1 3 5 Middle School 3 0 0 1 High School 0 1 0 1 Private School 3 0 0 1 Telephones: Landline 120 0 0 963 WIL Phone 60 55 35 0 Mobile 1108 125 150 1105 Public booth 2 1 6 50 Electricity connection 90% 90% 90% 80% Type of houses: Terrace 129 40 26 77 Tiled 265 75 121 150 Colony houses 494 100 47 226 Huts 735 10 664 1468 Toilets Public 1 1-unused 1 2 (unused) Private 722 50 240 705 Television with cable connection or DTH 1200 100 250 500 Public television 2 1 2 6 Post office 1 0 1 1 Cyclone relief center 0 1 1 1 Bus service Yes Yes Yes Yes Cooperative Society 1 1 2 2 Number of NGOs operating 10 3 6 12 Meeting hall for self-help groups (SHG) 2 0 1 1 CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL Number of SHGs: Women 30 22 38 58 Men 5 0 6 12 Village Information Centre 1 0 0 2

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agricultural lands from sea water. In COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE Pushpavanam village, many people mentioned that they needed either © S Janakrajan community wells or private wells. All these measures would definitely enhance the capacity of the community to better adapt in extreme climate conditions but will not help to overcome the risks posed by long-term impacts due to climate change. These interventions appear ad hoc in nature and may not contribute to long-term adaptive strategies.

Overall perception of risks, vulnerabilities and local needs in all ecosystems are summarised as follows: Floods in Cauvery River 2005

1. Cyclones and Storms Populations most affected: Fishing communities and some others Individual debt has gone up with the Sea water Vulnerability level: Very high increasing frequency of cyclones and encroachment is Risk factors: High wind speeds with droughts. increasing. heavy rainfall; flooding; sea water Climate change risk awareness: ingress Some fishermen are aware of the Asset loss: Extensive damage to huts threat of climate change, but the and semi-roof dwellings, to livestock majority of people are not, despite and poultry, to boats and fishing seeing changes in weather and nets; loss of land; loss of livehoods monsoon patterns, erratic rainfall, Coping strategies: Temporary move sea water ingress, etc. to cyclone shelters or schools; Reasons why some populations are financial loans; reliance on unaffected by the impacts of climate government support and NGOs; change: Concrete homes built on support from self-help groups elevated land; better education, Existing government support: Ad including in the English language hoc cash support, provision of 10 leading to better jobs; at least one kilos of rice, 10 liters of kerosene, one household member engaged in non- dhoti (traditional Indian man’s fishing livelihood; better drinking trousers) and one sari (traditional water and sanitation; vehicle Indian woman’s dress). No long-term ownership; access to government adaptation plan whatsoever. officials; greater wealth allowing Potential impacts of climate change: ownership of trawlers, multiple Already serious and likely to be boats, etc. aggravated. Vanagiri village has lost Demands of affected populations: developed land to sea water ingress. Better weather forecast information; a Sea water has encroached on at least stop to the polluting of backwaters 800m of land in all villages. and the sea; skills acquisition in non-

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fishing activities such as carpentry, Among young men: skill acquisition masonry, construction, electronics in industrial trades (welding, and electrical engineering, etc.; electrical engineering, electronics, mangrove and coconut plantation etc.) and computer skills. Most and stonewall protection from sea farmers want shutters in backwater surges; cheaper credit. Most women rivers to prevent further salinisation need better sanitation, drinking of land and groundwater. Some water and healthcare. farmers want support in obtaining salt resistant crop seeds and in 2. Cauvery and Sea water Floods creating a market for salt resistant Contributing to Land and crops. Here also women need better Groundwater Salinisation sanitation and drinking water Populations most affected: Small facilities and credit for sheep and medium farmers (and some breeding. others) Vulnerability level: very high 3. Drought Risk factors: Inundation; land Populations most affected: Farmers, remaining fallow due to salinity; very landless agricultural labourers (and Most women poor crop yield; decreased land value some others) need better Asset loss: Decreased land value; Vulnerability level: Medium sanitation, total loss of groundwater due to intensity salinisation; loss of agricultural Risk factors: Excessive heat; poor drinking water production and employment drinking water supply; poor crop and healthcare. Coping strategies: Out-migration for yields; unemployment; lack of fodder; non-farm jobs in towns, shrimp food shortages and hunger farming, borrowing money, sheep Asset loss: Selling off of livestock, breeding, support from self-help land, jewelry and other household groups items for income Existing government support: None Coping strategies: Borrowing from Potential impacts of climate change: money lenders; support from self- Already serious and likely to be help groups; out-migration aggravated; hundreds of people have Existing government support: Rural already lost their livelihoods employment guarantee scheme for Climate change risk awareness: job creation is helpful but very None political Reasons why some populations are Potential impacts of climate change: unaffected by the impacts of climate Loss of livelihoods and worsening change: Ownership of land in food security elevated areas or at least two Climate change risk awareness: kilometers inland; better education; None non-farm livelihoods; remittances Reasons why some populations are from abroad; credit worthiness and unaffected by the impacts of climate the capacity to take loans; self- change: Assured non-farm employment (self-employed people employment; supplemental sources CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL are relatively better-off, both of income from trade and business or economically and socially). remittances; ability to borrow large Demands of affected populations: sums of money; better education.

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Government and private sector Reasons why some populations are COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE workers tend to be better-off unaffected by the impacts of climate economically and socially. change: Ownership of homes with private toilets; ownership of concrete What affected populations want: houses Among young men: skills acquisition What affected populations want: in industrial trades (welding, Continual access to safe drinking electrical engineering, electronics, water; health care; toilets etc.) and computer skills. Most farmers want shutters in backwater rivers to prevent further salinisation Implementation Schemes and of land and groundwater. Women Strategies Identified in the SLD need better sanitation and drinking Process water facilities and need to be given official identity cards as belonging to For Fisher populations in all self-help groups in order to easily Ecosystems obtain bank loans. There is strong „ Except in a few places there is no bio- demand for a drought relief package shield in the villages. Growing from the government. mangroves would benefit and even Most people save the fisher communities from need and want 4. Lack of Sanitation and Assured extreme weather events. Many people the same basic Drinking Water have shown a preference for coconut necessities: skills Populations most affected: Women trees as a bio-shield. (in particular teenage girls) and the „ People need skills training in non- training in non- sick fishing activities such as carpentry, farm based Vulnerability level: High intensity masonry, electrical works, plumbing, livelihoods, Risk factors: Sexual abuse; snake heavy vehicle driving, and access to safe bites; for those who have no toilets, communication. potable water, the time taken in having to walk long „ Access to insurance and credit needs sanitation distances for any privacy; falling sick to be established during drought and flood „ Training in the fish processing facilities. conditions. industry such as manufacturing of Asset loss: Death from snake bites; fish pickles, prawn pickles and poor health and associated medical tinned fish as well as training in the expenses; loss of valuable time in expert of these products needs to be seeking toilet privacy and fetching provided. safe drinking water „ Need better schools and particularly Coping strategies: None education in the English language Existing government support: „ Everyone appreciated the idea of a Houses with toilets built after the community FM station for 2004 tsunami; construction of public communicating information during toilets for women and children times of disaster Potential impacts of climate change: „ Safe drinking water is one of the most Likely to become a serious issue in important demands – the the future groundwater is saline and polluted. Climate change risk awareness: „ VICs are considered a good facility None but need to be integrated with

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people’s needs and wishes. VICs „ Sheep breeding, dairy production could be strengthened with the and growing fodder (which can be provision of reliable climate grown on saline land). Subapul, for information. example, is a salt resistant crop „ Sponsoring young boys and girls for which is also a fodder. Several technical training such as industrial other crops could be grown in training, computer training, science brackish water and used as animal courses, training in NGO activities fodder. Sheep breeders are less and the English language would be affected by the impacts of climate of great benefit. change „ Poultry farming For Agriculture Dependent „ Training in brackish water shrimp Populations in all Ecosystems and fish farming „ Skills training in non-farm „ Sponsoring young boys and girls livelihoods such as industrial trades for industrial training, computer (fitter, welder), carpentry, masonry, training, science courses, training in plumbing, electrical and electronics NGO activities, English language servicing. courses, etc. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

266 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „

„ VIC and FM radio services Conclusions COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE „ Better library with Tamil and English newspapers for information on This case study assessed the nature of education and employment existing hazards and vulnerabilities opportunities. and identified possible adaptive measures in select study villages. Shared learning dialogues were used to Cost-Benefit Ranking of understand and analyse the risks and Response Strategies vulnerabilities experienced across different sections of the population. In order to prioritise discussions within Discussions with government officials, both the district and state level SLDs on private sector and NGO personnel were the identification of practical strategies held. SLDs were used as a two-way for responding to risks and process to identify and discuss the vulnerabilities, a cost-benefit ranking issues. Furthermore, the SLDs were exercise was carried out. Potential costs useful for identifing innovative and and benefits were ranked in the range of practical measures for long-term 1 and 10, in which 1 referred to the least adaptation by the affected communities. and 10 to the highest cost. Similarly, Existing adaptation measures There needs to be potential benefits were also ranked undertaken by the communities are ad continious between 1 to 10. For example, if the cost hoc and not sustainable in the long- engagement with of a particular strategy was ranked 9 term. More SLDs should be organised to various stakeholders and the potential benefit was ranked 3, clarify practical, long-term, then the strategy would be regarded as a comprehensive and innovative to identify practical, high cost–low benefit strategy. Ideal strategies. The communities have agreed long-term, strategies would cost rank as 4 or below that carefully planned adaptive comprehensive and with potential benefits ranking above 7. strategies are superior to their current innovative strategies A series of such exercises were coping mechanisms. There needs to be a for adaptation to documented, giving insights into the continuous exchange of information climate change. perspective of each community gathered through this research with regarding the costs and benefits of government agencies, private service strategies to overcome their risks and providers, NGOs and those engaged in vulnerabilities (see Table 4). climate adaptation studies and disaster risk reduction.

I am extremely grateful to my project staff for all their support in data collection from both the field as well as the existing literature. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the work carried out by Dr.Geeta Lakshmi and Mr.G.Prabahar. Further, I am indebted to all the respondents in the selected villages who patiently shared their experiences during our field visits.

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Appendix 1

Severe Cyclones that hit the Tamilnadu Coast, in Particular the Cuddalore and Nagappattinam Coasts

1. Cyclone Rameswaram, 17th to 24th December 1964, wiped out Dhanuskodi village on Rameswaram Island. A passenger train which left Rameswaram Road station at about midnight on the 22nd was washed away by the storm surges, killing nearly all the passengers. The Pamban bridge connecting Mandapam and Rameswaram Island was also washed away by storm surges 3-5 meters high.

2. December 1st-8th, 1972: A cyclone tracked over the Tamilnadu coast just north of Cuddalore at 2330 UTC on 5th December and was within 50 km WNW of Cuddalore at 0300 UTC on December 6th. Maximum wind speed recorded at Cuddalore was 148 km/h between 2230 UTC of the 5th and 0230 UTC of the 6th of December. 80 people were killed and 30,000 people rendered homeless in Madras due to the resulting flood. Total losses amounted to Rs. 40 crores (1 crore = 10,000,000).

3. November 8th-12th, 1977: A cyclone tracked over the Tamilnadu coast within 10 km of the south of Nagapattinam early in the morning of the 12th around 2230 UTC. The system weakened into a cyclonic storm by that evening over interior parts of Tamilnadu and emerged as a deep depression onto Laccadives off the north Kerala coast on the morning of the 13th. Maximum wind speed recorded was about 120 km/h on the 12th morning at Thanjavur, Tiruchirapalli and Podukottai. 560 people died and 100,000 people lost their homes. 23,000 heads of cattle perished. The total damage to private and public property was estimated at Rs. 155 crores.

4. November 14th-24th, 1978: A cyclone tracked over between Kilakkarai and Rochemary in Ramanatharam District of Tamilnadu on the evening of the 24th as a severe storm emerged off the Arabian Sea on the Kerala coast, emerging as a deep depression on the morning of November 25th. Maximum wind speeds of 145 km/h were reported at Batticola, Sri Lanka. In India, 5,000 huts were damaged; total damage was estimated at Rs. 5 crores. In Sri Lanka, 915 people died and one million people were affected; 10,000 houses were damaged. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

268 WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE „ CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN COASTAL FOR ADAPTATION: IN PROSPECTS REDUCTION TAMILNADU AND RISK CHALLENGES DISASTER CLIMATE AND CHANGE

5. November 27th-30th, 1984: A cyclone tracked over the southern Tamilnadu coast near Nagapattinam in the afternoon of December 1st near Karaikal. About 35,000 people were affected in East Thanjavur and South Arcot districts. 50, 000 acres of land were submerged in Thanjavur district.

6. 11th-15th November 1991: A cyclone tracked over the Tamilnadu Coast north of Karaikal. 185 people died and 540 heads of cattle perished.

7. 11th-17th November 1992: A cyclone tracked near Tuticorin (Tamilnadu). 175 people died and 160 more were reported missing. The resulting floods caused extensive damage to standing crops.

8. 1st- 4th December 1993: A cyclone tracked north of Karaikal in Tamilnadu, killing 100 people.

9. 28th November-6th December 1996: A cyclone tracked near Chennai around 2100 UTC on December 6th. The cyclone persisted for 9 days, reported to be one of the longest duration stationery cyclones in the Indian Ocean. It caused extensive damage to life and property.

10.Tropical Storm 06B formed 550 nautical miles east of Chennai on December 6th, 2005, west of the Andaman Islands. It became Cyclonic Storm Fanoos on December 7th. Cyclone Fanoos later weakened into a deep depression before crossing the northern Tamilnadu coast near Vedaranyam at 0530 UTC on December 10th. The storm weakened further into a low pressure area over the southern Tamilnadu coast the following day. It caused major floods all over Tamilnadu, in particular the on coastal districts.

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Bibliography

Antoinette, L., E. Brenkert and L. Malone, Vulnerability and Resilience of India and Indian States to Climate Change: a First Order Approximation, Stratus Consulting Inc. and Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (2005), Country Paper for India, presented at the International Workshop on Strengthening the Resilience of Local Communities in Coastal Areas, Copenhagen, Nov. 16-18, 2005. K. S. Kavi Kumar and S. Tholkappain (2006), Relative Vulnerability of Indian Coastal Districts to Sea-Level Rise and Climate Extremes, International Review for Environmental Strategies 6 (2). Janakrajan S. (1999) Conflict over the invisible resorce in Tamilnadu: Is there a way out in Rethinking the Mosaic, Investigations into local water management, eds. Moench et al., NWCF and ISET International. TERI (1996), The Economic Impact of One Metre Sea Level Rise on Indian Coastline: Methods and Case Studies, report to the Ford Foundation. Shrestha, M.L. (1998) (Ed.) The impact of tropical cyclones on the coastal regions of SAARC countries and theirinfluence in the region. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Agargaon, Bangladesh, 329 pp.14Mani, J.S., 2000. Coastal processes in Tamil Nadu and Kerala: environmental and socioeconomic aspects. In: Environ-mental problems of coastal areas in India, Editor, V.K. Sharma, Bookwell Press, New Delhi, pp. 201- 216. CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE DISASTERCHALLENGES RISK TAMILNADU AND PROSPECTS REDUCTION IN FOR ADAPTATION: COASTAL

270 10CHAPTER

When Realities Shift: Responding to floods and the challenge of climate change in Ganga Basin

Ajaya Dixit, Marcus Moench and Sarah Opitz-Stapleton „ WORKING WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE

projections prove accurate. The fourth The Challenge IPCC summary report states about the Himalayan region that “heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk.” (2007: 7) The report also projects that average precipitation levels in the Ganga Basin will increase by approximately 20% and, at a global level, there will be increases in climatic variability The annual monsoon floods in the including increases in the frequency Ganga Basin are essential for and intensity of extreme weather events preserving fertility of soils, sustaining such as large storms (IPCC, 2007). the ecology, and recharging aquifers. Flooding in 2007, although not However, they are also often necessarily caused by climate change, destructive and cause much misery. is nonetheless consistent with the type In 2007, for example, monsoon of impacts with such projections. Current flooding of the Ganga and its approaches to tributaries inundated sizable areas Flooding has a particularly devastating flood across Nepal, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, impacts on the 504 million or so who live in the Ganga Basin: 440 million in management are Bihar, West Bengal and Bangladesh, killed thousands and displaced India, 41 million in Bangladesh and 23 unable to deflect millions. Numerous houses and other million in Nepal1 because they are the impacts on assets were damaged or destroyed, among the poorest in the world and human lives and agricultural losses were considerable, finds it hard to reconstruct livelihoods livelihoods. and livelihoods suffered as people lost following a flood disaster. Socially and access to jobs, transportation networks economically marginalised and asset and other sources of wage labour. poor families often have no option Furthermore, the prevalence of water- other than to live in vulnerable borne diseases, particularly among locations such as flood plains, because children, women and other vulnerable processes of social and economic groups exacerbated the effect of direct exclusion prevent them from owning economic losses. In fact, impacts of land in less flood-prone areas. The flooding are widely recognised as a number of poor and vulnerable families major factor contributing to the is almost certain to grow as a endemic poverty of the region. Clearly consequence of climate change. current approaches to flood management are unable to deflect the Throughout most of recent history,

WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN impacts on human lives and governmental strategies for flood livelihoods. mitigation in the Ganga Plain have emphasised structural control The scale of the 2007 flooding could measures, primarily embankments, well become the norm across the measures, which, as the floods of 2007 Ganga Basin if climate change demonstrate, have proved inadequate

1 All 2001 data compiled from various sources.

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and in many cases, detrimental. As Objectives and Purpose GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN climate change progresses, these measures will become increasingly The objective of this chapter is to ineffective because they do not address document the basic hydrologic and other the fundamental dynamics of basin reasons conventional approaches to hydrology, geomorphology and social flood management have proved contexts. Their inadequacy is likely to insufficient to protect populations in the increase. Effective alternatives, which Ganga Basin and to identify alternative include measures to improve drainage, strategies that should help people in provide points of refuge and improve adapting to floods. We focus first on the early warning systems, must be historical and current impacts of developed. Livelihood systems that flooding and then consider impacts have a high level of resilience to the projected to occur as a consequence of disruptions caused by floods must be climate change. We then briefly explore built and access to resilient the history of flood management communication, transport and financial attempts, focusing primarily on the systems provided (Moench and Dixit technical debates regarding viable 2004). The region faces a fundamental strategies for flood control. This analysis challenge: develop effective strategies is used as a basis for identifying Livelihood for adapting to impacts of floods or face potential alternative approaches. The systems that regular disasters that undermine chapter concludes with a preliminary have a high level development and contribute to endemic analysis of the flood risk management of resilience to poverty. alternatives designed to provide policy makers and other key actors with an the disruptions understanding of the challenges and caused by floods alternative strategies for reducing flood must be built . risk and responding to climate change.

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this year. In 2007, statistics collected Flooding in the Ganga Plain by the Red Cross and other sources indicate that across the Ganga Basin in India, Bangladesh and Nepal about 35 million people were affected, over 1,400 lives were lost and almost 5 million hectares of crops were affected (see Table 1). Even in Nepal, a country few people think of as flood affected, over 580,000 people were affected and 164 lost their lives. As the The 2007 flood was above long-term accompanying map (see Figure 1) averages but still far from unprecedented. illustrates, the impacts of flooding Flooding is so common that over the were not confined to the Ganga Basin centuries populations living in the basin but extended throughout much of Asia. have coped with and adapted to both annual patterns of inundation and more The above official figures, although extreme flood events. Between 1744 and indicative of the extent of flooding, Official figures 1987, 42 major flood events occurred in provide relatively little insight into the provide relatively the Ganga plain (Kale, 1998). Ten such multiple factors that contribute to their little insight into events took place between 1953 and 2007, impact on the health and long-term including those in 1953 (Nepal and well-being of the affected populations. the multiple factors Bihar), 1954 (Nepal and Bihar), 1968 Official figures aggregate losses and do that contribute to (Eastern Nepal, Bihar, Darjeeling and East not tell the individual and community their impact on the Pakistan), 1975 (Bihar and West Bengal), stories of loss, coping, and ripple health and long- 1977 (Bihar and West Bengal), 1987, 1988 effects. Flooding affects populations in term well-being of (Bangladesh), 1993 (Nepal and Bihar), diverse ways, only some of which are the affected 1998 (Nepal, Eastern Uttar Pradesh), 2002 related to immediate losses. populations. (Eastern Uttar Pradesh) and 2007 (Nepal, India and Bangladesh). In addition to In the immediate term, physical losses regional events, many localised flood such as damage to infrastructure disasters occur, but these are neither particularly roads and houses, and documented by official sources nor destruction of resources are readily reported in the national media. apparent. In Bihar and Bangladesh, many crops were completely destroyed The impact major flood events can have is by floodwaters that covered fields for clear from the data collected for the floods days because embankments and road

| TABLE 1 | Summary of Flood Damage in Ganga Basin WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN Population 245 and 7 Affected Country Affected Lives Lost Districts Municipalities Crop Area ha Nepal NA India 580,000 164 49 India Uttar Pradesh 2,211,000 216 22 2,546 162,566 Bihar 14,420,000 480 20 9,840 1,455,000 West Bengal 6,871,000 212 3 3,837 2,213,150 Bangladesh 10,583,574 363 252 1,955 1,089,959 Source: Indian Government Situation Reports, Bangladeshi Government Situation Reports, Nepal Red Cross Situation Reports (2007).

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| FIGURE 1 | Area affected by 2007 Floods GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN

Bejing

Aksai Chin Seoul Shandong Jammu CHINA Islamabad Shanxi and Kasmir Henan

Anhui PAKISTAN Sichuan Hubei Chongging New Delhi NEPAL Kathmandu Thimpu Jia ngxi Uttar Pradesh Assam Guizhou

Bihar Dhaka Yunnan Guangxi Guongdong Taiwan POC Gujrat INDIA MANMAR kolkotta

Maharastra BANGALADESH

Country capital Karnataka Majer town or city Intreanational Boundary Affected countries Many consume Karela Most affected areas household 0 495 995km Kuala lumpur savings and take Source: UN OCHA Regional Office for Asia Pacific (2007) out loans, often under usurious terms to buy networks impeded drainage (Agence regional scales. Individuals without seed for crops. France Presse, 2007; Oxfam, 2007). access to credit or livelihood Damage to transportation networks left diversification options, such as millions isolated in India, Nepal and migration or non-land based income, Pakistan and made it difficult to face the greatest difficulty in rebuilding convey relief supplies to the flood their lives. Many consume household refugees. Access to food and clean savings and take out loans, often under drinking water was so limited that usurious terms to buy seed for crops some people resorted to eating rodents resulting in permanent indebtedness (BBC, 2007). As the flood waters and ultimately increased poverty. In receded, outbreaks of cholera and other addition because people use migration water-borne disease began to as a key mechanism for adaptation, overwhelm some regional relief centers socio-economic relationships in regions and hospitals in Bangladesh, Uttar frequently affected by the adaptation Pradesh, Bihar and western Bengal in process. India (The Guardian, 2007). The 2007 floods further highlight the The devastation of crops, the loss of need for disaster risk reduction in livestock, and destruction of personal development programmes. Without such possessions have long-term livelihood measures, development and poverty implications for individuals and for reduction initiatives will continue to face economies, at the local, national and serious and continual setbacks.

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1998). These include two large flood- The Structure and Hydrology generating synoptic systems ranging in force from tropical lows to cyclones (Ramaswamy, 1987). According to Dhar of the Ganga Basin and Nandargi (1993) the flood generating rainstorms are confined to two major zones. The Ganga Basin and Punjab plains fall in the first zone while central India and northern half and peninsular India constitutes the second zone (see Figure 2). There is marked spatial and temporal variation in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of The South Asian landmass receives floods due to the differences in the size most of its precipitation during the of the catchment, basin relief and basin summer monsoon season when, as a location with reference to the monsoon result, it faces recurrent floods. South winds and cyclone tracks.2 Other key Asia has many of the hydro-climatic factors, which exercise important conditions which make large floods control over river floods in South Asia, likely (Hayden, 1988 quoted in Kale, include basin geology, morphology, and channel geometry. These natural

| FIGURE 2 | Flood Generating Synoptic System over South Asia conditions intertwine with the human built environment of the region, resulting in frequent flood disasters.

I In terms of response to high flows and Indus floods, South Asia can be broadly I II divided into four hydro-geomorphic Brahmaputra I regions: the Himalayan region, the IV Indus-Ganga-Brahamaputra plains, the II Luni Ganga Peninsular region and the Thar Desert. (see Figure 2.)3 While the above Narmadaa demarcation is useful, it is more logical Mahanadi Tapi III to consider the Himalaya and southern plain of the Ganga Basin as one region. Godavari Arabian Because the Himalayan region and its Sea foothills receive high normal Krishna Bay precipitation and some of the highest of Bengal 24-hour rainfall events in South Asia WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN Kaveri Legend (Rakhecha and Pisharoty, 1996), the Major rainstorm zones Ganga Basin has a greater flood

Major hydro-geomorphic zones potential than the peninsular rivers. The peak discharges of the Ganga Basin 0 200 400km rivers generally occur in late July, Source: Dhar and Nandargi (1998)

2 For details see Gupta (1988) 3 The map and details are from Kale (1998) and Kale (2003)

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August and September, when cyclonic Although all the rivers of the Ganga GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN activity over the Bay of Bengal and Basin receive water from the monsoon, adjoining coastal belt on the Arabian their responses vary depending on their Sea is most vigorous and when high nature, whether mountain-fed, foothills- levels of antecedent moisture means that fed or plain-fed. Mountain-fed rivers the bulk of the rainfall is converted into receive water from snow and glacier runoff. The magnitude, intensity and melt in both the dry and wet season. timing of monsoon rains determine Since they have large catchment areas, what the peak discharges will be. Early monsoon rainfall in conjunction with and late monsoon floods, however, are snowmelt can cause very high flows not rare and uncommon. Nor are that contribute to inundation once they multiple flood events in a single year, as reach the plains. Because their evidenced by late July and the late discharge and sediment load exhibit August floods in 2007. large variation, their flood responses are often rapid and widespread. The foothill Excessive rainfall during the monsoon rivers, which drain the Siwalik (chure) is associated with particularly intense range, are rain-fed and often do not flow phases of the monsoonal depression, during dry periods. They are prone to cyclonic storms originating in the Bay of flash flooding triggered by intense Cloudbursts, Bengal and adjoining coastal regions, cloudbursts. Rivers that originate in the accentuate orographic lifting along mountains and plains derive part of their flow from regional finally with breaks in the monsoon. The groundwater. During the monsoon they sedimentation. last element, breaks in the monsoon, are flow at bank-full conditions for the particularly strongly associated with duration of rainfall and, in combination large-scale flooding. During active with groundwater derived base flows, breaks, the monsoon trough, which become sources for widespread regional normally falls along a belt via Sri inundation. Ganganagar, Patna and Calcutta and brings rain along this low-pressure All the three rivers types transfer huge region, shifts towards the northern amounts of sediment. For the foothill foothills and becomes temporarily and mountain fed rivers, a significant stationary.4 When this happens, the portion of this sediment is derived from hills receive intense rainfall, and the natural and geological processes days in the plain are rainless. The including landslides and other mass oscillation of the trough is regular, often movements coupled with erosion of bed modulated by the Madden-Julian and banks. Rainfall events, particularly Oscillation (Waliser et al., 2003). (Refer cloudbursts, accentuate these processes to Chapter 3 for further information on thereby increasing regional the Asian monsoon). According to sedimentation. Coarse sediment Indian weather statistics, the trough can deposition is particularly intense at the remain in the hills from a minimum of base of the hills where river gradients three to four days to a maximum of three decline dramatically as they enter the weeks. main plains. In this zone, rivers shift

4 The July and August 1954 floods in the Himalayan rivers that caused widespread flooding in Nepal and Bihar were a result of active breaks in the monsoon.

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their channels frequently. Climate “management”. First due to steep changes will clearly have an impact on orographic effects of the Himalaya and sediment process, but the extent of the the low gradients of streams in the impact is not easy to quantify. The plains, inundation and sedimentation challenge is particularly complex are natural. Secondly, immediately after because sediment base-loads, which are debouching on to the plains from the mobilised during intense flooding hills, the rivers move laterally with a events, have never been possible to high potential of bank erosion. Third, a measure accurately. This lack of precise significant amount of the total rain falls information is significant as water and within the plains. This contributes to sediment fluxes determine the design, flooding but is not entering the region operation and functioning of structural through river flows from upstream control measures such as embankments. locations. As a result, inundation from this source can only be addressed by The following natural contexts are measures to increase drainage, not by worth reiterating, as they influence measures to confine rivers. responses and policies for flood

Climate changes will clearly have an impact on sediment process, but the extent of the impact is not easy to quantify. WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN

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Bihar, 2,681 km in Uttar Pradesh and GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN The Evolution of 10,350 km in West Bengal. Bangladesh has built about 8,300 km of embankments since 1959. In Nepal, Conventional Management only a few hundred kilometers of Approaches embankments have been constructed. The structural approach is a narrowly conceived solution and ignores many important side effects. Embankment construction has caused water logging The conventional approach to flood of a large section of the plains. This in mitigation is rationalist in orientation turn, has had high environmental and and involves a two stage policy social costs that outweigh the perceived response. The first step involves benefits of irrigation and flood control collecting data about a flood hazard. In development (Gyawali, 1998; Dixit, the case of flood mitigation, this step 2003). The embankments have forced consists of collecting and analysing rivers to deposit their sediment within The structural data on rainfall, river flow, river stages, the embanked portion, raising the bed approach is a sediment loads, and the economic and level of the river higher than the narrowly social systems likely to be affected by a surrounding land. Floodwater seeps though the earthen embankment, while conceived flood. The second stage involves using the data to explain the nature of the tributary rivers cannot drain into the solution and flood hazard and then proposing and rivers. ignores many implementing mitigation measures. In important side the Ganga Basin, most responses to Together with bridges and raised effects. floods have focused on structural highways, roads and railway lines, measures, including embankments, embankments have caused drainage levees or dykes and reservoirs. congestion in the flood plains of the Ganga, thereby making people living The building of embankments on the there more vulnerable. According to plains of the Ganga Basin to control Hofer and Messerli (2006) lateral river floods began in the later years of the embankments and disappearance of British Raj and proceeded more natural water storage areas in the vigorously after India’s independence. lowlands seem to have a significant The 1954 Flood Control Policy impact on the flooding processes. enunciated by the Government of India Another factor that has exacerbated and the first flood control plan in what flooding disasters is population growth. was then East Pakistan espoused the With ever greater numbers of people structural path to flood control. competing for limited space, the poor Following this policy guidance, the (the vast majority) are forced to live in government of India has constructed a land most susceptible to flooding and total of 33,630 km of embankments,5 congestion; i.e. within the flood plains about 3,454 km of embankments in themselves.

5 Details are available at (http/wrmin.nic.in/publication/ar2000/arooch/5.html).

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elsewhere. Other suggestions include the Using Flood to Advantage: idea of floating cities or hydrometropols (Kabat et al., 2005). Indeed such measures have conceptual and cost implications Emerging global flood for Ganga Basin, particularly in relation management trends to disaster losses and recovery. The costs associated with disaster recovery can be exorbitant, and in developing country, contribute to an endemic state of poverty. Yet experiences As the shortcomings of relying primarily elsewhere indicate that flood mitigation on structural flood control measures—so- needs a broader approach than simply called “hard control” measures—become implementing structural measures. The increasingly apparent, various other economic devastation witnessed after the approaches to flood mitigation are 1993 Mississippi River flooding point to emerging. These include “soft resiliency” the necessity of implementing disaster measures, such as the development of risk reduction measures which do not The Dutch have flood-adapted infrastructure within only rely on structural protection. After begun to floodplains, ecosystem restoration, significant failure of flood protection acknowledge that insurance for risk spreading and a variety structures along the Mississippi, the Federal Emergency Management Agency it will be of behavioral and institutional measures. Such measures compliment structural (FEMA) began working with affected impossible to control techniques. Together they could communities to buy structures situated in provide structural enable crafting of multi-layer disaster risk the floodplain and allow strategic protection for the reduction strategies that enable people to flooding. Those essential structures that entire country. live with floods and other risks rather than could not be relocated are being attempting to fully control such risks. voluntarily retrofitted and raised above the 100 yr flood level (FEMA, 1996). The Netherlands provides an example of how such systems can evolve. The Cost alone is, however, not the only issue. Netherlands is prone to flooding because The cases of Hurricane Katrina, the significant portion of its land lies below Pakistani earthquake (2005) and the 2007 sea-level and it also receives floodwaters Asian floods highlight how race, class, from upstream sources along the Rhine. gender and poverty interact to create a For years, the country has relied on an state of vulnerability to natural hazards. extensive network of levies and dykes to For many of the world’s poorest, hold back the sea and river flows. mitigating disaster risk has little to do Recently, faced with the threat of rising with structural protection. For them, soft

WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN sea levels, more intense storms, and resilience measures, including access to increased river flows, the Dutch have credit and insurance to better prepare for begun to acknowledge that it will be and recover from disasters, impossible to provide structural transportation to be able to leave an area protection for the entire country and are before disasters strike and during instead proposing to construct levies in inundation, early warning and targeted areas in order to protect key communication networks, and ecosystem assets and allow flooding to occur restoration are more appropriate.

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options); GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN Specific Opportunities for 5. Education (the basic language and other skills necessary to understand risks, shift livelihood strategies as Reducing Risks in the necessary, etc.); 6. Organization and representation Ganga Basin (the right to organize and to have access to and voice concerns through diverse public, private and civil society organisations); and 7. Knowledge generation, planning Opportunities for risk reduction are and learning (the social and emerging from field research to scientific basis to learn from document the factors that increase experience, proactively identify people’s vulnerability to flooding in the hazards, analyze risk and develop Ganga Basin (see previous chapters). response strategies that are tailored Drawing upon a series of Shared to local conditions). Learning Dialogues with affected Financial communities, non government Migration, on a seasonal or longer term opportunities to organisations and some government basis, is an important risk reduction reduce risk include officials, researchers have come up with strategy for many households in the Ganga Basin. Although it alters access to credit, the a number of soft and hard resiliency suggestions for how vulnerability to community relationships and local formation of self- natural hazards can be reduced. These resource management, migration can help groups that take into account the unique interplay create greater financial resilience can disburse loans among physical, social, economic and through remittances and reduced and micro-credit, political relationships. reliance on land-based livelihoods. crop insurance and Financial opportunities to reduce risk access to local The ability to reduce vulnerability to include access to credit, the formation of disasters is strongly related to the self-help groups that can disburse loans markets. robustness of the following systems and micro-credit, crop insurance and (Moench and Dixit, 2004): access to local markets. These mechanisms provide individuals with a 1. Communications (including the safety net should crops or possessions presence of diversified media and be damaged by natural hazards such as accessibility of information about floods and provide incentives for weather in general and hazards in behavioural change. For instance, particular); micro-credit and loans allow farmers in 2. Transportation (including during Bihar and Uttar Pradesh to increase extreme events); crop varieties and include drought or 3. Finance (including access to flood resistant species. Such measures banking, credit and insurance also enable access seeds and equipment products for risk spreading before, more rapidly in the aftermath of a flood during and following extreme event. events); 4. Economic diversification (access to a Non-financial options for improving range of economic and livelihood resiliency include the expansion of

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communication networks. The to maintain many kilometers of establishment of FM radio stations and embankments, stretches of penetration of cell phone networks embankments short enough for a increase the likelihood communities will community to maintain effectively on be aware of key issues, including its own should be built. climate and weather, and functioning of „ Constructing roads with adequate early warning systems. The result is that drainage or permeable bases so that individuals get more time to move they channel away rather than trap assets, such as livestock, to safer places floodwaters and thereby help prior to a flood event. minimise damage to transportation infrastructure, allow for quicker post- Structural measures can be an important disaster recovery, and reduce component of soft resiliency approaches disruptions in access to local but thinking about their design and markets. purpose has to change. Their design „ Constructing new or improving should not seek to curb risk completely existing schools or places of worship but instead to help the vulnerable live which are resilient to multiple with risk and protect key assets. In hazards for use as community Structural other words the goal is flood adaptation, shelters. measures can be not flood control. In the past, poorly- an important designed flood and transportation These are only a few examples of the structures simply aggravated flood flood-adapted “soft resiliency” component of damage: haphazardly placed structural measures which, in soft resiliency embankments, for example, caused fields combination with other soft resiliency approaches but which would drain naturally in hours or measures could substantially reduce thinking about day to be water logged for weeks. Some vulnerability to flood risks in the Ganga their design and of the “new” (local populations have Basin. purpose has to used some of these measures for change. generations) flood-adapted structural Approaches to flood mitigation that measures that are beginning to be combine flood-adapted structural employed in the Ganga Basin include: elements with the other (transport, financial, communication, etc.) systems „ Raising the plinth height of houses that contribute to build social resiliency and hand pumps. could be an effective alternative to „ Building houses with flat roofs so historical approaches. Limiting the use that people have a safe place to go of conventional technology (primarily during floods and to store critical embankments) to the protection of small assets like livestock and seeds. critical areas, applying measures which „ Providing tarps and other materials reduce flood impacts (improving

WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN to families so they can construct drainage, raising the plinths of houses, temporary shelters on their roofs. etc.) and improving core systems that „ Constructing embankments only in contribute to social resilience would locations where they are required to represent a fundamental paradigm shift. protect particularly high value areas Even when cities are protected by ring (such as towns, cities, airports, etc…). bunds providing proper drainage Furthermore since it is not pragmatic remains important because the within rainfall must be properly drained.

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sediment load is deposited within GANGA BASIN IN OF CLIMATE TO CHANGE CHALLENGE FLOODS THE AND RESPONDING SHIFT: REALITIES WHEN Summary embankments, the levels of riverbeds rise until they are higher than the sluice gates placed to allow tributary rivers to drain into the main river. Thus, they prevent tributaries from emptying into main rivers. Also because riverbed levels eventually exceed that of the surrounding land, water begins to seep from the embankment and spread across the flood plain. As a result, floodwaters that would have naturally drained in a few hours or days remain he four monsoon months when flood T for weeks and the land becomes hazards occur in Ganga Basin bring waterlogged. In addition, embankments large-scale inundation, which, coupled give a false sense of security to those with social factors, causes much who live in such “protected” areas as hardship to the people in the plains; they can be easily over-topped or those in the hills also suffer from their breached by a flood whose levels exceed We focus on fair share of problems, including the embankment’s design ensuring the landslides and mud and debris flows. In specifications. Another common uninterrupted the plains investments in implementing problems is that the sluice gates placed drainage of flood flood control measures such as in embankments are generally poorly embankments, flow modification waters, the maintained and do not function as they structures, and bank stabilisation has minimisation of are designed to. been significant but these structural flood-related approaches have not ameliorated the The realities presented above make it risks and the impacts of flood disasters. In fact, they clear that there needs to be a paradigm provision of have exacerbated them, a fact which shift away from controlling floods to livelihood makes it evident that the intent to providing unhindered drainage and control flooding completely is not diversification learning to live with risk. This idea is possible. Nor is it desirable. Instead, the options. not a totally new one in South Asia. In focus should be on flood damage the colonial era, British engineers mitigation. Such an approach focuses argued for providing unhindered on ensuring the uninterrupted drainage drainage, cushioning floodwaters in of flood waters, the minimisation of ponds and depressions, and promoting flood-related risks and the provision of inland fisheries. The report of the 1928 livelihood diversification options. Flood Committee, constituted to deliberate on the Mahanadi floods of Contrary to expectation, embankments 1927 concluded that in the case of have not provided security from Orissa, the annual deltaic inundation flooding. In regions of high intermittent was a part of the “working of nature” high rainfall and high water tables, and noted that the problem was not embankments have negative impacts, how to prevent flood but how to pass which their conception, design and then as quickly as possible to sea.6 construction ignore. Because a river’s

6 The reference to Orissa Flood is based on D’Souza (1999).

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Focusing on unhindered drainage is equally important in helping people would set the stage for creating learn to live with flooding and other conditions that minimise inundation weather-related hazards. The key to during the monsoon season, but success is to also ensure that improving drainage is only part of the opportunities for different ways of story. Adopting soft resilience strategies working exist to spread risk and reduce vulnerability WHEN REALITIES SHIFT: RESPONDING AND THE FLOODS CHALLENGE TO CHANGE IN OF CLIMATE GANGA BASIN

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