lapopsurveys.org Síganos en July 2019
The Political Culture of Democracy in Ecuador
J. Daniel Montalvo, Ph.D. Director of Survey Research Operations LAPOP 2
Table of Contents
The AmericasBarometer at Glance: Ecuador’s National Survey Section 1: National Problems 1.1. Economic Insecurity 1.2. Crime and Insecurity 1.3. Corruption Section 2: Democracy 2.1. Support and Satisfaction with Democracy 2.2. Institutional Legitimacy 2.3. Tolerance 2.4. The Ecuadorian Voter Section 3: Other Topics 3.1. Migration Intentions 3.2. Progressive Policies 3.3. Trust in China and US Governments Conclusion Representative samples 100% interviews (national & subnational) audited for quality
Standardized methods 100% e-devices
Common core content Open access to data & from 2004 to present day reports
Face-to-face interviews Over 250,000 interviews
The 2018/19 round is scheduled to include 21 countries and over 30,000 interviews 4 2019 AmericasBarometer National Survey in Ecuador
• 1,533 face-to-face interviews (margin of error: ±3%) • Pretest: December 19-20, 2018 • Training: January 14-15, 2019 • Fieldwork: January 22 – March 19, 2019 • 100% of the data collected with electronic devices
Our team pretesting and training in Quito 5
Ecuador’s Sample Design
Nationally Representative
Stratified by region (Coastal, Sierra, and Amazon); county size (large, medium, small); and urbanization level (urban and rural)
Multistage, probability selection of primary sampling units and clusters
Clustered at the block level 6
Regions and Provinces in the Sample Design
Regions Provinces
Coastal Azuay, Bolívar, Cañar, Chimborazo, Cotopaxi, El Oro, Esmeraldas, Guayas, Sierra Imbabura, Loja, Los Ríos, Manabí, Morona Santiago, Napo, Pichincha, S.D. De los Tsáchilas, Santa Elena, Sucumbíos, Tungurahua, Zamora Amazon Chinchipe 7 LAPOP Gathers Data from 51 Counties (Cantones) in Ecuador
LAPOP’s mission is to:
Produce high quality public opinion data Develop and implement cutting-edge survey methods Build capacity in survey research and analysis Generate and disseminate policy- relevant research 8
Section 1
National Problems 9 The economy continues to be the most important problem for 60.4% of Ecuadorians in 2019 (down from 80.3% in 2016). However, the percentage of people reporting security and politics as the most important problem has increased substantially since the last round.
9.9% 4.7% 12.0% 1.9% 3.2% 13.1%
2.3% 60.4% 12.3% 80.3% Economy Economy Security Security Basic Services Basic Services Politics Politics Other Other Most Important Problem Most Important Problem Ecuador, 2016 Ecuador, 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2016-2019; v.TS_20190627
A4. In your opinion, what is the most serious problem faced by the country? 10
1.1 Economic Insecurity 11 63.8% of Ecuadorians think the economy has worsened in 2019, up from only 20.0% in 2014 (red line below). Just a small fraction (5.9%) thinks the economy has improved in the last 12 months (blue line).
80 Worse Same Better
60
40 Percentage (%) Percentage
20
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Perceptions of the National Economic Situation
SOCT2. Do you think that the country's current economic situation is better than, the same as or worse than it was 12 months ago? 12 48.9% think their personal economic situation has gotten worse in 2019. Only 8.8% of Ecuadorians think their economic situation has improved, down from 25.2% in 2014.
80 Worse Same Better
60
40 Percentage (%) Percentage
20
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Perceptions of the Personal Economic Situation
IDIO2. Do you think that your economic situation is better than, the same as, or worse than it was 12 months ago? 13 In 2019, fewer Ecuadorians (40.3%) reported that their household income has deteriorated in the past 2 years than in 2016 (48.2%).
80 Decreased Same Increased
60
40 Percentage (%) Percentage
20
0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer LAPOP, 2010-2019; v.TS_20190627
Household Income Over Past Two Years
Q10E. Over the past two years, has the income of your household 14 More Ecuadorians (29.9%) reported running out of food over the last three months in 2019 than in 2012 (21.1%).
21.1% 29.9%
70.1% 78.9%
No No Yes Yes Has Run Out of Food in the Last 3 Months Has Run Out of Food in the Last 3 Months Ecuador 2012 Ecuador, 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2010-2019; v.TS_20190627
FS2. In the last 3 months, due to lack of money or resources, did you ever run out of food? 15 24.8% reported that an adult in their household has eaten only once or not eaten an entire day in the 3 months prior to the survey (up from 18.7% in 2012).
18.7% 24.8%
81.3% 75.2%
No No Yes Yes Eaten only Once/Not Eaten an Entire Day Eaten only Once/Not Eaten an Entire Day in the Last 3 Months Ecuador, 2012 in the Last 3 Months Ecuador, 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2010-2019; v.TS_20190627
FS8. In the last 3 months, due to lack of money or resources, have you or any adult in your household eaten only once a day or not eaten an entire day? 16
In 2016 and 2019, the percentage of Ecuadorians actively looking for a job is nearly three times that of 2012.
20 17.4% 15.7% 15
10 8.6% Percentage (%) Percentage 5.5% 5.5% 5 4.7%
0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2008-2019; v.TS_20190627
Percentage of Ecuadorians Looking for a Job
OCUP4A. How do you mainly spend your time? Are you currently... The figure above shows the percentage of Ecuadorians who are actively looking for a job 17 The percentage of Ecuadorians who reported receiving government cash transfers was cut almost by half in 2019 compared to 2014.
40
29.7%
30 24.2%
18.0% 20 16.7%
Household Beneficiary of 10 Bono de Desarrollo Humano deBono Desarrollo
0 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2012-2018; v.TS_20190627
Recipients of Bono de Desarrollo Humano (Cash Transfer)
CCT1B. Now, talking specifically about Bono de Desarrollo Humano, are you or someone in your house a beneficiary of this program? 18
1.2 Crime and Insecurity 19 Crime victimization rates in Ecuador have remained relatively stable. Since 2010, nearly 1 out 3 citizens report having been victimized in the 12 months prior to the survey.
50
40
29.1% 30.4% 30 28.1% 27.8% 28.8%
20 Percentage (%) Percentage
10
0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2010-2019; v.TS_20190627 Crime Victimization
VIC1EXT. Have you been a victim of any type of crime in the past 12 months? That is, have you been a victim of robbery, burglary, assault, fraud, blackmail, extortion, violent threats or any other type of crime in the past 12 months? 20
For the first time, more than half of Ecuadorians feel somewhat or very unsafe in their neighborhoods.
60 55.7%
48.0% 47.6% 42.6% 42.9% 40 38.8% 38.1% 34.9% Percentage (%) Percentage 20
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Perceptions of Insecurity AOJ11. Speaking of the neighborhood where you live and thinking of the possibility of being assaulted or robbed, do you feel very safe, somewhat safe, somewhat unsafe or very unsafe? The figure above shows the percentage of those who feel somewhat and very unsafe 21 In 2019, there is a sharp decrease (13.6 percentage points) in the number of Ecuadorians who have faith that the judicial system will punish criminals, compared to 2016.
60 52.1%
45.1% 40.6% 38.5% 40 36.4% 29.6% 24.8% 26.4% Percentage (%) Percentage 20
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Belief that Courts Will Punish the Guilty
AOJ12. If you were a victim of a robbery or assault how much faith do you have that the judicial system would punish the guilty? Figure above shows the percentage of people who responded “Some” and “A Lot” 22 A little less than half the adult population state that they would own a gun for protection. More than half are in favor of the death penalty for people guilty of murder.
41.4% 46.5% 53.5% 58.6%
Yes For No Against Would Own Gun for Protection Opinion on Death Penalty Ecuador 2019 Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
ARM2. If you could, would you have a gun for your protection? CAPITAL1. Are you for or against the death penalty for people guilty of murder? 23
1.3 Corruption 24 The percentage of Ecuadorians who think that corruption among public officials is somewhat or very widespread has been declining since 2006.
100 92.0% 82.6% 84.3% 80 78.9% 77.3% 70.3% 67.7%
60
40 Percentage (%) Percentage
20
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Perception of Corruption
EXC7 . Taking into account your own experience or what you have heard, corruption among public officials is... Figure above shows the percentage who think it is somewhat or very widespread (not asked in Ecuador in 2016) 25 In 2019, the belief that more than half or all politicians are corrupt increased 8.2 percentage points compared to 2016.
11.9% 16.5%
23.8% 56.1% 27.4% 64.3%
None/Less that Half None/Less that Half Half Half More than Half/All More than Half/All Corrupt Politicians Corrupt Politicians Ecuador 2016 Ecuador 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
EXC7NEW. Thinking of politicians in Ecuador, how many do you believe are involved in corruption? 26 The percentage of corruption victims has remained stable since 2014 in Ecuador, at a rate of nearly 1 out of 4.
60
50
40.9% 40 34.1% 31.9% 30 27.5% 25.6% 26.3% 26.6%
Percentage (%) Percentage 21.1% 20
10
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Corruption Victimization
CORVIC. Corruption Victimization Indicator 27
Nearly 1 out of 4 Ecuadorians justify paying a bribe (up from 13.6% in 2014).
40
30 27.2% 25.4% 21.2% 19.5% 20 19.2% 18.1% 15.6%
Percentage (%) Percentage 13.6%
10
0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Corruption Tolerance
EXC18. Do you think given the way things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified? 28
Section 2
Democracy 29
2.1. Support and Satisfaction with Democracy 30 In 2016-2019, support for democracy dropped by about 10 percentage points compared to earlier rounds. There is an even sharper decreasing trend in the percentage of Ecuadorians satisfied with the functioning of democracy in the country.
80 80 68.8% 66.7% 64.1% 65.6% 64.7% 61.5% 63.3% 61.5% 60 60 54.4% 56.1% 54.6% 53.0% 52.1%
40 40 38.7%
Percentage 30.7% Percentage (%) Percentage 25.0% 20 20
0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) 95 % Confidence Interval Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Support for Democracy Satisfaction with the Way Democracy in the Abstract Works in Ecuador
ING4. Changing the subject again, democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? Figure on left shows the percentage who responded 5- 7 in the original 1-7 scale PN4. In general, would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in (country)? Figure on right shows the percentage of those who are satisfied and very satisfied 31
2.2 Institutional Legitimacy 32 More than half of Ecuadorians respect and support political institutions. However the majority feel their rights are not well protected, and more than 2/3 think courts do not guarantee fair trials.
Respect for Political Institutions
57.5%
People Should Support the Political System
51.3%
Pride in Political System
46.0%
Basic Rights are Protected
36.7%
Courts Guarantee Fair Trial
29.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627 System Support Components B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 33 Trust in Elections Trust in Institutions of Representative 42.9% Democracy Trust in Local Government
39.6% More citizens trust elections and their local
Trust in the National Legislature governments than the National Assembly and political parties 33.0%
Trust in Political Parties No institution of representative democracy 19.9% is trusted by more than 43% of the population
0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 34
Trust in the Military, the Trust in Armed Forces Police, and the National
Court of Justice 73.1%
Trust in National Police
Nearly 3 in 4 people trust
50.0% the Military, but only only half trust the Police Trust in the National Court of Justice Less than a third of Ecuadorians trust the 32.3% National Court of Justice
0 20 40 60 80 Percentage (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 35
Trust in Catholic Church
Trust in Other Institutions 57.6%
Trust in the Media
More than half of
Ecuadorians trust in the 52.8% Catholic Church and the Media Trust in Evangelical/Protestant Church Nearly a third trust the
Evangelical/Protestant 34.0% churches
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
B Series. To what extent do you… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 36 Trust in government institutions has followed different patterns: while both the President and the National Assembly have experienced losses since 2014, trust in the National Court of Justice is increasing. Trust in political parties has remained stable since 2014.
Percentage who trust in the…
40 60
45.1% 30 42.6% 40 23.0% 34.2% 33.0% 20.3% 19.9% 29.6% 20 18.8% Percentage National Assembly Percentage Political Parties 12.9% 10.9% 20 9.8% 13.0% 10 10.0% 6.4% 7.1%
0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
80 40 69.0% 61.9% Moreno 32.3% 29.9% 60 30 52.4% 51.3% 49.6%
Correa 21.6% 40 20 17.9% 17.5% Percentage President 31.2% Percentage National Court of Justice 12.8% 20 10
0 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Figures shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 37 Trust in the Armed Forces and the Police has increased since 2004, but declined somewhat since 2016. Elections and local government have experienced slight decreases in trust since 2004.
Percentage who trust in the…
61.2% 60 54.8% 60
50 49.3% 44.3% 45.1% 45.9% 42.9% 43.0% 44.3% 39.5% 40.2% 39.6% 40 40 36.9%
30 Percentage Elections Percentage Local Government 20 20
10
0 0 2004 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
78.8% 80 76.4% 60 57.2% 73.1% 52.9% 50.0% 63.4% 63.8% 50 48.8% 60 52.5% 40 39.0% 48.2% 47.6% 37.3% 33.2% 40 30 24.6% Percentage Armed Forces Percentage The Police 20 20 10
0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 5-7 on the 1-7 original scale 38
2.3 Tolerance 39 Approval of Government Critics' Right to Peaceful Demonstrations
53.1% Tolerance Approval of Government Critics' Right to Vote
40.3%
Except for peaceful Approval of Government Critics' Right demonstrations, the majority to Make Speeches of Ecuadorians disapprove of government critics’ political 26.9% rights including the right to Approval of Government Critics' Right vote, make speeches, and to Run for Office run for office in 2019. 24.5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage (%) 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
D Series. There are people who only say bad things about the Ecuador’s form of government, not just the incumbent government but the system of government. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people's right to… Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 7-10 on the 1-10 original scale 40
In general, tolerance has increased from 2014 to 2016-2019. However, it remains low, especially for speech and running for office
Approval of Government Critics’ Right to…
50 60 41.6% 41.1% 40.3% 53.1% 40 37.4% 50.7% 35.6% 36.6% 47.7% 43.4% 44.1% 31.6% 42.6% 30 29.1% 40 36.8% 36.4% Percentage Vote Percentage 20 Peaceful Protests 20
10
0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
40 60
30.0% 30 26.1% 26.0% 25.2% 24.5% 23.8% 40 21.0% 20 30.2% 27.9% 27.7% 26.9%
Percentage 15.9% Percentage 25.8% 25.6% Run for Public Office 22.7% Public Speech 20 16.9% 10
0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2004-2019; v.TS_20190627
Figure shows the percentage of people who responded 7-10 on the 1-10 original scale 41
2.3 The Ecuadorian Voter 42
In 2019, most Ecuadorians said they have little or no interest in politics.
8.8%
32.9% 22.9%
35.4% A lot Some Little None Political Interest Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
POL1. How much interest do you have in politics? 43
Many more people dislike a political party than identify with one.
22.9% 33.5%
66.5% 77.1%
Yes Yes No No Identifies with a Political Party Dislikes a Political Party Ecuador 2019 Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
VB1. Do you currently identify with a political party? VB10NEG. At this time, is there a political party that you dislike? 44 If the next presidential election were being held in the week of the survey, most people would either vote for the opposition or spoil their vote.
2.3% 10.4%
41.8%
45.5%
Wouldn't vote Would vote for government party Would vote for the opposition Would spoil vote Vote Intention in Next Presidential Election Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
VB20. If the next presidential elections were being held this week, what would you do? 45
Section 4
Other Issues 46
4.1 Migration 47
A little less than a third of Ecuadorians are considering emigrating, up from less than 20% in 2010.
40
30.1% 30.2% 30
23.7%
18.9% 20 17.7% Percentage (%) Percentage
10
0 2008 2010 2012 2016 2019 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects) Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2008-2019; v.TS_20190627
Emigration Intentions
Q14. Do you have any intention of going to live or work in another country in the next three years? 48
In 2019, few Ecuadorians receive remittances from abroad.
5.6%
94.4%
Yes No Receives Remittances Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
Q10A. Do you or someone else living in your household receive remittances, that is, economic assistance from abroad? 49
4.2 Progressive Policies 50
Most Ecuadorians strongly disapprove of gays’ rights to get married and to run for public office
25 40
20 30
15
20 22.0% 36.8% Percentage 10 Percentage
13.0% 12.5% 10 5 9.1% 7.8% 7.6% 8.7% 12.3% 6.6% 6.7% 6.0% 9.2% 10.5% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.1% 0 0
Strongly 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Strongly Strongly 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Strongly disapprove approve disapprove approve Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627 Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
Gays’ Right to Run for Public Office (2019) Gays’ Right to Marry (2019)
D5. EnAnd now, changing the topic and thinking of homosexuals, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office? D6. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of same-sex couples having the right to marry? 51
There is a sizable majority of people who would approve of abortion when the mother’s health is at risk.
36.8%
63.2%
Yes, it is justified No, it is not justified Abortion Justified When Mother's Health is at Risk Ecuador 2019
Source: © AmericasBarometer, LAPOP, 2019; v.TS_20190627
W14A. And now, thinking about other topics. Do you think it's justified to interrupt a pregnancy, that is, to have an abortion, when the mother's health is in danger? 52
3.2. Trust in China and US Governments 53 In 2019, more Ecuadorians trust the Chinese Government (46.5%) than the US Government (38.6%). However, trust in both governments is decreasing.
80 US Government Chinese Government
60
40 Percentage (%) Percentage
20
0 2012 2014 2016 2019 Source: © AmericasBarometer LAPOP, 2012-2019; v.TS_20190627
Percentage who Think the Governments are Somewhat or Very Trustworthy
MIL10A. The government of China. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion? MIL10E. The government of the United States. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion? 54
Conclusion 55
Main Findings
National Problems: The Economy
Public opinion of the economy is pessimistic: almost 2 out of 3 Ecuadorians think the national economic situation is worse today than it was 12 months ago
At the individual level, nearly half of Ecuadorians report that their personal economic situation has deteriorated during the last year
40.3% saw their household income decrease in the last two years
Nearly 1/3 ran out of food in the last 3 months, and 1 out of 4 ate only once or did not eat an entire day in the same period
The percentage of Ecuadorians who received the Bono de Desarrollo Humano dropped from 29.7% in 2014 to 16.7% in 2019 56
Main Findings
National Problems: Crime
The rate of crime victimization has remained stable at around 1/3 of the population since our first measurement in 2010
Perceptions of insecurity, however, have skyrocketed: 55.7% of Ecuadorians feel somewhat or very unsafe in their neighborhoods (up from 34.9% in 2014)
There has been a sharp decrease in the percentage of Ecuadorians (38.5%) who have faith in the judicial system to punish criminals (down from 52.1% in 2016) 57
Main Findings
National Problems: Corruption
In 2019, almost 2 out of 3 Ecuadorians think that more than half or all politicians are corrupt (up from 56.1% in 2016)
The rate of corruption victimization, however, has remained stable since 2014 (at around 26-27%)
In 2016 and 2019 more people than ever before in our measurements think that paying a bribe is justifiable (27.2 and 25.4%, respectively) 58
Main Findings
Democracy:
A little over half of Ecuadorians (54.4%) think in 2019 that in spite of its problems, democracy is the best form of government
Only 38.7% are satisfied with the way democracy works in Ecuador
Trust in Government institutions is rather low. The most trusted institutions are the Military (73.1% of Ecuadorians trust in this institution), the National Police (50.0%), and local governments (39.6%). The least trusted are Congress (33.0%), the National Court of Justice (32.3%), and political parties (19.9%)
Tolerance towards system critics is improving, but it also remains low. 53.1% approve of government critics to carry out peaceful demonstrations, whereas only 24.5% approve of them running for office. 59
Main Findings
The Ecuadorian Voter
Most people (68.3%) have little (35.4%) or no interest in politics (32.9%) in 2019
Only 22.9% identify with a political party, while 33.5% dislike at least one political party
If the next presidential elections had been held the week of the survey, only 10.4% would have voted for the incumbent party 60 Report Credits
Editors: Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Ph.D Adam Wolsky
Auditor: Sebastian Larrea
All LAPOP reports and datasets are available at www.lapopsurveys.org
This study is made possible by the support of Vanderbilt University and the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this study are the sole responsibility of the author and LAPOP and do not necessarily reflect the views of Vanderbilt University, USAID or the United States Government.