TO: Interested Parties FROM: Forward Majority HQ RE: What Tuesday’s Special Election in Texas HD-28 Means for Winning the Texas State House DATE: 1/24/2020

A key state house special election is taking place in Texas on Tuesday — Texas HD 28. The district has long been a Republican stronghold. In recent years, however, changing demographics and suburban growth have shifted the political landscape. Recent attention from national Democrats like Beto O’Rourke, Mike Bloomberg, Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden has put a spotlight on the race. And Forward Majority has invested more than $400,000 to date in voter communication programs in support of Democrat Eliz Markowitz.

Ahead of Election Night, we've outlined key facts about this race to put it in context given the dynamism of the district.

• Pundits have been hyping HD 28 as a bellwether. It’s an important contest - - but that’s actually not the right way to view it. Here’s why: a. If Eliz wins, it’s a thunderclap upset. Democrats competing for this seat have never broken 45.8% and the average Democratic performance in the district is only 37.9%. If Eliz crosses either threshold we will see the district’s continued movement toward Democrats. Should she garner more than 45.8%, she will have performed better than any Democrat in 20 years in a tough electoral environment. If she wins, it should be seen as an outright shockwave through the system.

b. Special elections are, well, special. Special elections are inherently idiosyncratic, and not necessarily predictive of how a district will perform in a general election. Often, that is because the shape of the electorate is fundamentally different -- in this case, it would likely be far more Republican leaning and partisan, as we saw in the November electorate. However, this race has the additional unique intervention of Beto, and presidential candidates, which is also shifting the dynamic on the Democratic side.

c. This is what it looks like to compete aggressively at the frontline of opportunity -- and it’s exactly what Democrats need to keep doing this November. When the spotlight fades, and all attention returns to the presidential contest - and any consideration after that, is of other federal races -- Democrats need to keep the pressure on and aggressively compete to put Republicans on defense and fight for seats they long considered safe.

• This race would help pave the way to a Democratic majority. But, to be clear, it’s not even in the top 10 most competitive districts in 2020. On paper, this is a tough district — and exactly where Democrats should be aggressively competing, and holding Republicans’ feet to the fire in the fight for the majority that would shift the electoral landscape and politics not only in Texas — but nationally — for the decade to come. Here is this race in context: a. The fact that HD 28 is up for grabs is a clear sign of just how competitive the battle for control of the Texas State House has become in 2020. There are more than 10 districts with stronger fundamentals, and a longer tail of additional targets that are the battleground for 2020.

b. Those 10+ seats have clear opportunities for growth in Democratic performance: Of those districts, there are nine that Beto O’Rourke won outright in 2018, and fifteen where his performance was stronger. In seven districts, Democrats came within three percentage points of winning in 2018 despite being outraised on average by more than 3-1, and multiple districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 remain under Republican control.

• HD 28 is an illustration of the trend line of Democratic performance in the suburbs of Texas. The fact that it’s competitive should be a warning sign to the GOP that their majority is at stake. For as long as the district has existed (and even in its previous iterations prior to 2010), Texas 28 has been a Republican stronghold. But the district is changing, shifting an average of 8.4% toward Democrats over the last decade. a. This improved performance is being driven by changing demographics in the Houston suburbs. Texas is diversifying at a remarkable pace. Texas 28 is now a majority- minority district (25% Hispanic, 11% African American, 16% AAPI) and like the state as a whole, Texas 28 has steadily seem improved democratic performance in recent years.

b. The trend line is clear. In 2012, Barack Obama lost here by 29 points. In 2016, Hillary lost by 10 and Beto came within 2 points of winning the district in 2018, demonstrating a clear broader trend in a Democratic direction, driven by growing diversity and suburban voter revolt.

c. National organizations are closing the funding gap. Across the country we see Democrats’ lagging performance in state legislative races is accompanied by a chronic and overwhelming resource gap. Quite simply, Democratic money isn’t trickling down to the legislative level. In 2018, Republican incumbent John Zerwas, outraised his opponent by more than 10-1. Forward Majority is leading the charge to close the resource gap in this type of tough challenger race.

d. Disgraced GOP candidate. Republicans have nominated a perennial candidate who has run for office and lost six times due to disturbing child abuse allegations his own children made against him. The allegations were the subject of a recent TV ad Forward Majority went up with against him and are so severe that even leading conservatives like Michael Quinn Sullivan (the activist who recorded GOP Speaker Dennis Bonnen) have deemed Gates unfit for office. Gary Gates has already begun to draw comparisons with disgraced Alabama U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore and is likely to be the GOP nominee again this coming November.

• Texas is the crown jewel of redistricting and Forward Majority is all in on the battle for the majority. Our organization has long considered Texas to be the most strategic state in the country for 2021 redistricting — not only because it’s already so gerrymandered, but also because it’s set to gain as many as four congressional seats - for a total of ~40 seats — after the census due to population growth. a. The opportunity to flip the Texas House has flown almost entirely under the radar of national Democrats, but Forward Majority has been implementing a multi-cycle plan to finish the job and upend what would otherwise be a Republican-dominated 2021 redistricting process.

b. In 2018, our organization deployed $2.2 million across over 20 state house districts in Texas. We saw tremendous success, helping to flip 12 districts where Democrats were getting overwhelmingly outspent by entrenched GOP incumbents, and uncovering latent Democratic strength in other districts where Republicans had not been challenged in years.

c. In 2020 we plan to invest at least double what we spent in 2018 and will run state of the art campaign programs in ~20 districts. This unprecedented effort begins with a $400,000 investment in Eliz Markowitz that included digital, targeted cable TV, mail and GOTV programs for both the November general election when she finished first and Tuesday’s upcoming runoff election.

Texas 28 is a tough district, but its trend toward Democrats is clear and it is exactly the type of district where Democrats need to compete to win majorities. Republicans continue to significantly outspend, but that costly defense illustrates just how vulnerable they are. While this isn’t an easy race, it’s a race where we believe there is no excuse for Democrats not to be aggressively competing given the stakes and Texas’ strategic importance.