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Technical Report Chapter 5: Health, Communities and the Built Environment UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report Chapter 5: Health, Communities and the Built Environment Lead Authors: Sari Kovats, Rachel Brisley Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 1 Contributing Authors: Matthew Baylis, Claire Belcher, Philip Bennett-Lloyd, Richard Betts, Sally Brown, Hannah Fluck, Rajat Gupta, Katherine Knox, Valentina Marincioni, Andy Morse, Dan Osborne, Catherine Payne, Jonathan Taylor, Grace Turner, Paul Watkiss Additional Contributors: Neil Adger, Amy Bell, Jade Berman, Kathryn Brown, Gemma Holmes, Martin Hurst, Jane McCullough, Alan Netherwood, Catherine Payne Andrew Russell, David Style This chapter should be cited as: Kovats, S. and Brisley, R. (2021) Health, communities and the built environment. In: The Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report [Betts, R.A., Haward, A.B., Pearson, K.V. (eds.)]. Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 2 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report Contents Key Messages .......................................................................................................................................... 4 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 10 5.1.1 Scope of this chapter ............................................................................................................... 10 5.1.2 Social, technological and economic trends that affect risks and adaptation .......................... 12 5.1.3 Fair adaptation: assessment of the distributional effects of risks and responses ................... 16 5.2 Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures (H1) .......................................................... 18 5.2.1 Current and future level of risk (H1) ........................................................................................ 19 5.2.2 Extent to which the current adaptation will manage the risk (H1) ......................................... 31 5.2.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H1) ............................................ 37 5.2.4 Looking ahead (H1) .................................................................................................................. 39 5.3 Opportunities for health and wellbeing from warmer summers and winters (H2) ....................... 40 5.3.1 Current and future level of opportunity (H2) .......................................................................... 40 5.3.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the opportunity (H2) .................................. 43 5.3.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H2) ............................................ 47 5.3.4 Looking ahead (H2) .................................................................................................................. 47 5.4 Risks to people, communities and buildings from flooding (H3) .................................................... 48 5.4.1 Current and future level of risk (H3) ........................................................................................ 49 5.4.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H3) ................................................ 63 5.4.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H3) ............................................ 81 5.4.4 Looking ahead (H3) .................................................................................................................. 84 5.5 Risks to the viability of coastal communities from sea level rise (H4) ............................................ 84 5.5.1 Current and future level of risk (H4) ........................................................................................ 85 5.5.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H4) ................................................ 98 5.5.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H4) .......................................... 104 5.5.4 Looking Ahead (H4) ................................................................................................................ 106 5.6 Risks to building fabric (H5) .......................................................................................................... 109 5.6.1 Current and future level of risk (H5) ...................................................................................... 110 5.6.2 Extent to which the current adaptation will manage the risk (H5) ....................................... 115 5.6.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H5) .......................................... 118 5.6.4 Looking Ahead (H5) ................................................................................................................ 120 5.7 Risks and opportunities from summer and winter household energy demand (H6) ................... 120 5.7.1 Current and future level of risk and opportunity (H6) ........................................................... 120 5.7.2 Extent to which the current adaptation will manage the risk and opportunity (H6) ............ 129 5.7.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H6) .......................................... 131 5.7.4 Looking Ahead (H6) ................................................................................................................ 133 Chapter 5 – Health, Communities and the Built Environment 1 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 5.8 Risks to health and wellbeing from changes in air quality (H7) .................................................... 133 5.8.1 Current and future level of risk (H7) ...................................................................................... 134 5.8.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H7) .............................................. 142 5.8.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H7) .......................................... 147 5.8.4 Looking ahead (H7) ................................................................................................................ 149 5.9 Risks to health from vector-borne disease (H8) ........................................................................... 149 5.9.1 Current and future level of risk (H8) ...................................................................................... 150 5.9.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H8) .............................................. 155 5.9.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H8) .......................................... 157 5.9.4 Looking ahead (H8) ................................................................................................................ 158 5.10 Risks to food safety and food security (H9) ................................................................................ 158 5.10.1 Current and future level of risk (H9) .................................................................................... 159 5.10.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H9) ............................................ 166 5.10.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H9) ........................................ 169 5.11 Risks to water quality and household water supply (H10) ......................................................... 170 5.11.1 Current and future level of risk (H10) .................................................................................. 170 5.11.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H10) .......................................... 181 5.11.3 Benefits of further action in the next five years (H10) ........................................................ 185 5.12 Risks to cultural heritage (H11) ................................................................................................... 187 5.12.1 Current and future level of risk (H11) .................................................................................. 187 5.12.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H11) .......................................... 196 5.12.3 Benefits of further adaptation in next five years (H11) ....................................................... 202 5.12.4 Looking ahead (H11) ............................................................................................................ 203 5.13 Risks to health and social care delivery (H12) ............................................................................ 204 5.13.1 Current and future level of risk (H12) .................................................................................. 204 5.13.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H12) .......................................... 211 5.13.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (H12) ...................................... 216 5.13.4 Looking ahead (H12) ............................................................................................................ 218 5.14 Risks to education and prison services (H13) ............................................................................. 218 5.14.1 Current and future level of risk of education (H13) ............................................................. 218 5.14.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (H13) .......................................... 225 5.14.3 Benefits of further
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