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Europe Lloyd’S City Risk Index Europe Lloyd’s City Risk Index Europe Lloyd’s City Risk Index Europe Overview 1 Cities 12 2 Threats 18 3 Resilience 30 References 33 Acknowledgements 34 Lloyd’s City Risk Index. Europe The Lloyd’s City Risk Index measures the GDP@Risk of 279 cities across the world from 22 threats in five Lloyd’s City Risk Index categories: finance, economics and trade; geopolitics and security; health and humanity; natural catastrophe 279 cities. 22 threats and climate and technology and space. The cities in the index are some of the world’s leading cities, which $546.5bn at risk together generate 41% of global GDP. The index shows how much economic output (GDP) a city would lose annually as a consequence of various types of rare risk events that might only take place once every few years, such as an earthquake, or from more frequently occurring events such as cyber attacks. GDP@Risk is an expected loss figure – in other words it is a projection based on the likelihood of the loss of economic output from the threat. The resilience levels of each city are taken into account, including the city’s governance, social coherence, access to capital and the state of its infrastructure. If some or all of these are resilient they can reduce the overall expected loss. One way of thinking about GDP@Risk is as the money a prudent city needs to put aside each year to cover the cost of risk events. The concept of GDP@Risk helps policymakers, businesses and societies understand the financial impact of risk in their cities, a first step to building greater resilience. The index also shows the scenario costs – these are the one-off costs if a specified threat scenario takes place. The index shows two numbers: the lower total is the loss that would occur from a moderate-sized event of that threat category; the higher total is the loss from an extreme scenario. These numbers represent the amount of lost economic output from the city from these types of scenarios. If occupants of the city hold insurance that covers property damage and business interruption, then some of the economic losses would be compensated from claims payments on these policies. The index’s key finding is that $546.50bn is at risk each year from all 22 threats, in all 279 cities. The largest Global overview threats globally1 are: market crash ($103.33bn), interstate conflict ($80.00) and tropical windstorm ($62.58bn). 279 cities. 22 threats Man-made threats account for 59% of the total GDP@ Risk and climate-related risks account for $122.98bn of lost GDP – a sum that will grow as extreme events Top ten cities at risk Top ten threats increase in frequency and severity. The three cities which stand to lose the most GDP $24.31bn $103.33bn 1. Tokyo 1. Market crash through risk worldwide are Tokyo ($24.31bn), New York ($14.83bn) and Manila ($13.27bn). The ten cities with $14.83bn the highest exposure could together lose $126.82bn 2. 2. New York Interstate per annum, almost a quarter of the total GDP@Risk in $80.00bn conflict the index, with Tokyo standing to lose more than $13.27bn 3. Manila any other city. 3. Tropical $12.88bn Asian cities stand to lose the most GDP to risk, accounting 4. Taipei windstorm $62.59bn for $241.28bn or 44% of the global total, with tropical storm the costliest single risk at $59.14bn. North American cities $12.74bn can expect to lose $92.96bn each year and European 5. Istanbul 4. Human cities, $70.33bn. In both regions, market crash is the single $47.13bn $12.42bn pandemic costliest risk. Cities in the Middle East and Africa will lose 6. Osaka $97.20bn of their GDP, with interstate conflict the costliest $42.91bn risk. Latin American cities make up less than 10% of the $11.56bn 5. Flood 7. Los Angeles global total with $44.73bn of GDP@Risk. $37.15bn $8.48bn 6. Civil conflict The index ranks each city with a resilience score from 8. Shanghai “very strong” to “very weak”. A higher resilience score $36.54bn reduces the GDP@Risk. If every city in the index were to $8.43bn 7. Cyber attack 9. London “upgrade” their resilience to “very strong”, the amount of GDP@Risk would reduce by $73.4bn. $33.96bn $7.91bn 8. Earthquake 10. Baghdad 9. Commodity price shock $20.29bn 10. Sovereign default $17.97bn The index analyses 66 European cities – from Dublin on the Irish Sea to Novosibirsk in Siberia. How do they compare with other cities across the Europe overview globe? European cities account for just 13% of the global GDP@Risk total, in part due to their stronger resilience levels. However, the continent still stands to lose a substantial amount - $70.33bn each year - to risk. 66 cities. 22 threats London, Moscow, Paris and Madrid combined account for $24.63bn – more than a third of Europe’s expected loss. However, the risk profiles of London and Paris are markedly different to those of Moscow, reflecting a sharp divergence between the risks affecting western and eastern European economies. Eastern Europe faces financial risks The index analyses 26 cities in the east of Europe that together face an expected loss of $15.85bn. The five costliest individual risks are: market crash ($6.13bn); civil conflict ($2.05bn); sovereign default ($1.54bn); human pandemic ($1.29bn) and interstate conflict ($877m). Eastern European cities are, in general, more exposed to geopolitical and security risks and less exposed to market crash and cyber crime, compared with Western Europe. Western Europe faces finance and cyber threats The 40 cities in the west of Europe have an expected loss to GDP of $54.48bn. The types of threats they face differ from the east in a number of critical ways Their key risks are market crash ($17.38bn); cyber attack ($8.67bn); flood ($8.54bn); human pandemic ($5.56bn) and commodity price shock ($4.40bn). This reflects the region’s emphasis on trade rather than resources, which means it suffers more financially when oil prices rise. Overall, Europe faces 11 risks with an annual expected loss of more than $1bn. Climate risks account for $12.17bn, so the prospect of more extreme weather events caused by climate change needs to be carefully managed by European countries. The index shows that flood will cost the European economy an expected $9.28bn each year – the most significant natural disaster, in terms of damage to the economy’s output. Freeze and heatwave have less of a financial impact but are risks to which Europe is particularly vulnerable due its geographic location. Europe experienced heatwaves in 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 20152. The freeze in March 2018 cost the UK economy alone an estimated $1.3bn a day, which is considerably more than the $92m in the index, which averages these occasional severe loss occurrences over time. These UK freeze costs include the loss of commercial activity with the closure of offices and shops, as well as the impacts of delays to the manufacturing supply chain. The construction industry was particularly affected 3. However, because of Europe’s role as a powerhouse of global trade, it is man-made risk which stands to have the greatest impact on the GDP of European cities. Man-made threats account for 67 per cent of the total risk to the GDP of European cities. The highly developed nature of the European economy means that business risks – cyber attack and market crash, for example - have a strong impact on GDP. Market crash, with a cost to GDP of $23.51bn each year is the largest risk across the continent, accounting for a third of Europe’s total loss to GDP. European businesses would be well advised to maintain robust risk strategies for market volatility, due to their high exposure to this risk. Europe at a glance Top ten cities at risk Top ten threats 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sixty-six key European cities stand to $8.43bn lose $70.33bn per year to risk. The 1. London costliest threats are market crash, flood and cyber attack. 1. Market crash $23.51bn $6.27bn 2. Moscow The two halves of the continent have divergent risk profiles. Western 2. Cyber crime $9.36bn $5.94bn European cities are far more likely to 3. Paris lose wealth through cyber attack, flood and commodity price shock. Eastern 3. Flood $9.28bn European cities are more exposed to 4. Madrid $3.99bn loss through interstate and civil conflict. 4. Human pandemic $6.86bn Many European cities are exposed to $2.55bn paradoxical climate extremes. Freeze 5. Barcelona and heatwave account for $1.21bn and, 5. Commodity price shock $4.75bn critically, flood and drought, which $1.77bn account for $10.68bn. Managing water 6. Milan in the face of a changing climate should be a priority for city planners. 6. Sovereign default $2.56bn $ 1.72bn 7. Munich Improving resilience could save the continent $2.6bn annually. 7. Civil conflict $2.37bn $1.61bn 8. Rome 8. Solar storm $2.13bn $1.49bn 9. Dublin 9. Interstate conflict $1.81bn $1.48bn 10. Athens 10. Drought $1.39bn Top ranked cities 1. Cities 12 Fig 2. Top five eastern European cities at risk ($US million) 1. Cities. Eastern cities at risk City by risk GDP@ Global Costliest ranking Risk ranking threat These cities (see Fig.2) are regional, and in some cases global, centres of commerce. Their high GDP contributes to their high 1.
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