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2018-Am-Law-100-Insi The Am Law 100’s Hard‐Won Profitability Growth and the Changed Dynamics of Competition Insights for Partners From a Decade of Upheaval Hugh A. Simons and Nicholas Bruch May 8, 2018 1 Hello my name is Nicholas Bruch [email protected] @NicholasBruch Hugh A. Simons [email protected] @SimonsHugh Preview: Today’s storyline Review of the past decade reveals stark changes in how law firms must manage themselves to improve profitability significantly and sustainably. 1. As firms realized the economy wasn’t going to bail them out, most turned to “management”—actively managing partner capacity, leverage, and costs—to get back to rising profitability. 2. “Management” has proven so effective it has undermined long‐held tenets of strategy: • The market is no longer consolidating—a firm doesn’t have to bulk up so as not to be on the wrong side of consolidation. • The market isn’t bifurcating by size or profitability— there are no such fault line firms need to be on one side of. • Mergers aren’t creating advantage: merged firms are under‐performing their peers. • Building out global footprints is weakening, not strengthening, domestic positions. 3 Takeaways for partners 1. Help leaders to not do stupid stuff. 2. Let leaders manage • Particularly: let leaders manage numbers of equity partners and leverage. • Also: encouraging delegation (i.e. leverage in action); controlling costs, etc. 4 1. Don’t do stupid stuff. Go after lightly‐differentiated work with low leverage. Have the range of partner comp be narrower than the range of economics of individual partners’ practices. Grow by planting flags around the globe. Hire laterals without talking to their past clients and colleagues. Pursue a “catch a falling knife” acquisition. Emphasize tenure over contribution in the partner comp system. Play in segments where you’ve no right to think you can win. Forsake after‐action reviews on laterals, etc. because they risk embarrassment. Pull your punches on providing feedback to peers and leaders. Hire laterally a partner group in an unrelated practice. Open an office through lateral hires and not transfer a senior, home‐grown partner Give compensation guarantees. Fail to constrain leaders’ flights of grandiosity. Leave unfunded partner pension schemes uncapped. 5 2. Let leaders manage Today Suggestion “Parallel “Command play” Managerial intensity and control” Leaders Partners Leaders Partners 6 Roadmap: 1. The Am Law 100’s hard‐won profit growth 2. Consolidation, bifurcation, and mergers 3. Strategies that are working (and not) 4. Implications for partners 7 The Great Recession arrived with a bang 2000 2007 2017 peak peak near peak? 15% Change The “Great Recession” from year begins earlier, Revenues real % 10% PPP 5% 0% 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Revenues fell for the first time. ‐5% PPP fell an unprecedented 8 percent (real) in one year. ‐10% Year Notes: All quantities inflation adjusted; Am Law 100 on varying firm basis. 8 Revenue growth as a multiple of economic growth ended Prior to 2007, law firm revenue growth was an …but post‐2009 the exaggeration exaggeration of GDP year‐to‐year variations… (beta) has disappeared. 14% 14% Change from Am Law 100 prior year, Revenue Growth real % 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% U.S. GDP Growth 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 ‐2% ‐2% ‐4% ‐4% Notes: All quantities inflation adjusted; Am Law 100 on varying firm basis. 9 2017: Revenues 20% below where the economy suggests 2017 near 2000 peak 2007 peak peak $120 Am Law 100 Revenues projected from revenues, economic model: inflation‐ Am Law 100 $100 20percent adjusted Revenues $B (actual) $80 $60 $40 Economic model fitted period: 1994 to 2007 $20 $0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Model of form log(Revenue) = m*log(GDP) + b, all quantities inflation adjusted. Results: R‐squared = 0.99; m=2.78, b=‐6.74. Varying firm definition of Am Law 100 10 We do know where the business went It’s disruption—not by technology, but by in‐house lawyers Is your firm losing any business to other providers of legal services? (Percent responding “taking work from us now”) Law department in‐sourcing Client use of technology Non‐law firm providers Non‐traditional law firms Networks of independent lawyers 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Source: 2017 Law Firms in Transition, An Altman Weil Flash Survey 11 Confirmation: In‐house counsel are displacing Am Law 100 lawyers 25 Percent of private sector In‐house lawyers in 20 U.S. (%) 15 Am Law 100 10 5 2000 2007 2016 Year (business cycle peak) Data source: ALM Intelligence, AmLaw and NLJ annual rankings; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: The Rise (and Fall?) of In‐house Counsel, by Hugh A. Simons and Gina Passarella, The American Lawyer, pp 65‐70, March 2018. 12 Despite the revenue weakness firms kept adding lawyers 130 Index (2007=100, inflation adjusted) Revenue growth 120 stalled… …no. of lawyers continued to grow. 110 100 90 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Data are totals for 2017 Am Law 100 firms in each year shown (i.e. constant firm definition of Am Law 100) and are adjusted for inflation. 13 Brief aside Particular locus of lawyer growth: Non‐equity partners 160 Index (2007=100) Non‐equity 140 partners 120 Associates Equity partners 100 Am Law 100 quantities 80 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Am Law 100 based on 2017 constant firm definition; associates comprise all non‐partner lawyers. 14 Brief aside Non‐equity partner growth not universally applauded “It’s a cheap fix” “Gerrymandering while Rome burns!” “It’s manufacturing profitability” “It’s not fair to the non‐equity partners” “A tactical fix to a “It’s fake profitability!” structural problem” 15 Brief aside Hypothesis testing: Fake profitability What “Fake Profitability” might look like: What the Am Law 100 looks like: 60 60 50 50 Associates Associates 40 40 30 30 20 Equity 20 Equity partners partners 10 Non‐equity 10 Non‐equity partners partners 0 0 2007 2017 2007 2017 Notes: Associates data include all non‐partner lawyers. Data shown are on a constant firm basis, comprising the 93 firms from the 2017 Am Law 100 for which data are available for 2000 and 2017. 16 Brief aside Am Law 100’s evolving pyramid structure Leverage ratios at last three market peaks(1) 2000 2007 2017 Equity 1.0 1.0 1.0 partners Non‐equity partners per equity 0.25 0.5 0.7 partner Associates per equity 2.2 2.6 2.9 partners 01234 01234 01234 Leverage: 2.45 3.1 3.6 Notes: Associates data include all non‐partner lawyers. Data shown are on a constant firm basis, comprising the 93 firms from the 2017 Am Law 100 for which data are available for 2000 and 2017. (1) While market has not yet turned, 2017 is probably approaching another peak. 17 Brief aside Non‐equity partner growth: Alternative view Nothing sacrosanct about the 2007 ratio. Leverage had been evolving and will continue to evolve. Non‐equity Higher leverage is a critical part of industry restructuring. partner growth (explicitly or de‐ Non‐equity partner growth helps with perennial problem facto) a sensible to too few senior associates and positive development. Goal for leverage: • Is not: preserve historical norms. • Is: operate with the right delegation; have partners at the right compensation. 18 Despite revenue weakness firms kept adding lawyers so that revenue per lawyer (RPL) fell sharply 130 Index …no. of lawyers (2007=100, Even in 2017, inflation continued to grow… revenue per adjusted) lawyer is 4‐ 120 Revenue growth stalled… percent below its 2007 level 110 (inflation …leading revenue per adjusted) lawyer to contract 4 percent 100 below 2007 level 90 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Data are totals for 2017 Am Law 100 firms in each year shown (i.e. constant firm definition of Am Law 100) and are adjusted for inflation. 19 And yet, PPP has more than recovered 2000 2007 2017 peak peak near peak? PPP, $2.0 inflation‐ adjusted $M +16% $1.5 2007 level Average PPP 7 years to surpass 2007 peak of Am Law 100 2 percent annual growth rate $1.0 2000 level In 2017, PPP was 16‐ 2 years to surpass 2000 peak 7 percent annual growth rate percent above its 2007 level (inflation $0.5 adjusted) $0.0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Year Notes: All quantities inflation adjusted; Am Law 100 on varying firm basis. 20 How can this be? Revenue per lawyer: Profit per eq. partner (PPP): • Down 4 % from ‘07 • Up 16 % from ‘07 21 How can this be? Cost per lawyer Profit per lawyer Subtract Revenue per lawyer: Divide Profit per eq. partner (PPP): • Down 4 % from ‘07 • Up 16 % from ‘07 Lawyers per equity partner(1) (1) Lawyers per equity partner is equivalent to 1 + equity partner leverage. 22 PPP drivers in context Stage IStage II Stage III Stage IStage II Stage III Stage IStage II Stage III 120 120 120 Index to 2007, real 110 110 110 Profit per equity partner (PPP) Equity partner leverage Margin per 100 100 100 lawyer Rev per lawyer Cost per lawyer 90 90 90 80 80 80 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Note: Am Law 100 is 2017 constant firm definition; associates comprise all non‐partner lawyers; dollar amounts are inflation adjusted to 2017 dollars.
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