Is Spain simply late to Europe’s populist party? by Camino Mortera-Martinez

It is a universally accepted fact that Spaniards love a good party. They are also, perhaps unfairly, said to be always fashionably late – it is not by chance that “mañana” (tomorrow) is one of the best-known Spanish words. Until two months ago, Spain had not joined Europe’s least exclusive party, with illiberal, eurosceptic and anti-migrant forces from Helsinki to Rome as guests. But now Vox, a relatively new far-right party, is in the new governing coalition of Andalusia, Spain’s most populous region. Will Spain follow the populist trend, or will Vox’s success be a one-off?

Vox secured 12 out of 109 seats in Andalusia’s compares with populist calls elsewhere in Europe regional election in December last year. The to leave the eurozone or the EU altogether. Spanish socialist party (PSOE), which had Indeed, Vox’s proposals on the EU, such as a new governed the region since 1982, gained the treaty returning powers to member-states, chime most votes but only secured 33 seats, not more with moderate critics in Northern and enough to form a government. Adelante Western Europe than with parties like Italy’s Lega Andalucia, a coalition party dominated by or France’s Rassemblement National. Podemos, a left-wing populist party, said it would not support a socialist government – nor Vox is tougher on immigration than on the EU. did it have the numbers to give the socialists It would like to send migrants who commit a majority. Instead, a coalition between the a crime back to their home countries, even if centrist Ciudadanos (Cs), the conservative they lawfully live in Spain; introduce migrant Popular Party (PP) and Vox took office. quotas which would prioritise those coming from Latin America; and build a wall along the Vox is less eurosceptic than other populist frontiers of Ceuta and Melilla, Spain’s enclaves movements in Europe. The party’s most radical in Morocco. But, as with many anti-migration suggestion about the EU is to suspend the parties in Europe, Vox’s demands lose their force Schengen passport-free area until the Union when confronted with reality. In exchange for passes more laws to prevent criminals travelling its support to a PP-Ciudadanos government unhindered. This point, which Vox included in its in Andalusia, Vox signed a ‘memorandum of manifesto after former Catalan president Carles understanding’ with the PP, making notable Puigdemont fled to Belgium to avoid trial, hardly compromises on migration: this mainly talks [email protected] | WWW.CER.EU CER BULLETIN ISSUE 124 | FEBRUARY/MARCH 2019 7 about reinforcing border controls (though it does more taxes than those living in Castilla y León in not explain how) and doing more to fight central Spain. migrant smuggling. In the long run, Vox’s success will not only be Vox’s softer position on migration in Andalusia measured by the number of seats it manages to is a rational choice. Although many people vote secure in the forthcoming European and regional for Vox because they are upset about Spain’s elections, but by its ability to influence and migration policies, this is far from the only ultimately dominate Spain’s national debate on explanation for the party’s sudden popularity. issues like migration, security and the economy. Vox thrived in some Andalusian towns with many And on that, Vox seems to be doing rather well: migrants, but it did rather poorly in others. And a the PP has toughened its stance on values and recent poll shows that many of Vox’s voters national identity, as its new leader Pablo Casado are unhappy about differences in the distribution rebrands the party as the “unashamed right”. of wealth between Spanish regions, and Vox’s surge is also a major headache for Albert the inefficient functioning of the Spanish Rivera, Cs leader: his party’s membership of the devolved administrations. governing coalition in Andalusia has attracted criticism from Rivera’s European partners. This Vox is doing fairly well in national polls. If matters, as Rivera hopes to get good results in national elections were held now, reliable polls the European elections by forging alliances with estimate it would enter the Spanish Parliament like-minded parties across the EU. The coalition with 12 to 13 per cent of the votes, or up to 45 in Andalusia may put off allies such as French seats (as a comparison, Ciudadanos has 33). If president Emmanuel Macron or Dutch prime this is the case, Vox will have an important role minister Mark Rutte, whose parties have long in coalition formation. Perhaps the success of ring-fenced the far right. Vox both nationally and in Andalusia is that it is not a single-issue party, and it revives issues Vox will probably not take the Spanish or that Spain’s mainstream parties seem to have European parliaments by storm, though it will forgotten amid the noise of the financial crisis make its presence felt. But if the Andalusian and Catalonia’s independence bid. These range experience is anything to go by, Spain has from national identity to taxation to domestic belatedly joined Europe’s populist party. violence. Many of them overlap: for example, part of Vox’s argument about national unity is based on the desire to scrap regional differences on taxation, which mean that people living in, for Camino Mortera-Martinez instance, the western region of Extremadura pay Senior research fellow, CER @CaminoMortera

CER in the press

The Sunday Times be solved in a one-page As Agata Gostyńska- relationship go?’, the much 20th January protocol that could be Jakubowska of the CER bigger threat to trade from The influential CER argues ratified relatively quickly,” notes, it [an Article 50 Brexit is to Britain’s services [in ‘After the meaningful said Charles Grant, director extension] would also stop sector, accounting for nearly vote: What are Theresa of the CER. “This would mean the reallocation of the 27 a half of all UK exports, of May’s options?’ by Sam the British would not have to British seats, screwing up which around 40 per cent go Lowe and John Springford] hold elections themselves.” other countries’ polls. to the rest of the EU. that the only option for the prime minister in getting Politico The Financial Times The Wall Street Journal a withdrawal agreement 17th January 12th December 6th December through the Commons will If the EU cannot agree on The EU is scrambling to For everyone to trade in be to further blur her red a common system for legal respond to US sanctions on dollars, they must be able lines, so pushing Britain migration, it may be more Iran for fear of retaliation. to store them for future use, towards a softer Brexit. realistic for the Union to Luigi Scazzieri at the CER says explain Adam Tooze and support bilateral projects it is time for the bloc to buck Christian Odendahl in a paper The Financial Times between individual member up its ideas. ‘Can the euro rival the dollar?’ 18th January countries or groups and for the CER. That means “In some of the key member- third countries, said Camino The Telegraph finding safe dollar assets, states, senior officials believe Mortera-Martinez and Beth 8th December such as government bonds or that if the European Council Oppenheim of the CER. As the CER’s Sam Lowe other bonds with high credit wants to give the British points out in a new analysis ratings. Demand for these an extension beyond July The Economist ‘Brexit and services: How lowers financing costs for 1st, the election issue could 16th January deep can the UK-EU anyone borrowing in dollars.