SPECIAL EDITION 2 (14) | 2019 ISSN 2084-8250 MAIN PARTNER EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY #FUTURES After EU Elections SUPPORTED BY Fallout from Digital Disinformation is report lays out four major scenarios that could conceivably unfold after European Parliamentary Elections in May 2019. Prepared by the Visegrad/Insight in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Poland and a contribution from the ABTShield. is report lays out four major scenarios that could conceivably unfold after European Parliamentary Elections in May 2019. Prepared by the Visegrad/Insight in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Poland and a contribution from the ABTShield. EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY #FUTURES Four post-2019 options WOJCIECH PRZYBYLSKI Editor-in-chief The EU is at a critical juncture. For the first time since the launching of European inte- gration, doubts about the future of the EU have been raised by mainstream politicians and large swathes of the European public. Uncertainty as to the fate of Europe may demotivate voters and help disinformation campaigns often run by foreign powers hostile to the European project or sponsored by clandestine third parties. Whilst many of these fears are often seen as exaggerated, it is difficult to dismiss the impact of Brexit; for the first time since its inception, a major state in a process of leaving the EU. MARCIN ZABOROWSKI Senior Associate Even worse – and like never before – the EU is no longer supported by the sitting US President. In the 1950s, the United States was the sponsor and co-creator of European integra- tion. All subsequent American administrations have supported the EU, a policy now discontinued by the current American President. 2 VISEGRAD INSIGHT SPECIAL EDITION 2 (14) | 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY #FUTURES Meanwhile, Russia is actively disrupting the European pro- There is a growing sense of value distinctiveness in the region, ject by financing parties pushing for the fragmentation of the which will most likely be reflected in the upcoming elections to union and sponsoring disinformation campaigns. Online arti- the European Parliament and which will have an impact on the ficial amplification has real offline results. It breeds social sen- future composition and balance of power in the Parliament. timents hostile to the EU project and lures domestic parties into a honey trap of easy populist solutions. Disinformation Visegrad/Insight prides itself on developing scenarios that fo- campaigns are taking their toll across the whole of Europe, cus on the region and show trajectories for potential social and but it is the most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe political futures. This time, we have teamed up with the Kon- where global powers once again see an opportunity to deter- rad Adenauer Foundation in a partnership that resulted in a mine the fate of the continent. product sketching out four policy directions for Europe post- 2019 elections. The V4 nations remain staunchly opposed to migration, and the governments in Budapest, Bratislava and Warsaw have These elections are prone to large online disinformation cam- professed an attachment to more traditional social and fam- paigns. We have invited ABTSHIELD (Anti-Bots and Trolls ily values, vehemently running campaigns critical of LGBTQ online platform) to sketch out main lines of attack and coun- rights. The weaponisation of culture is also a tool of foreign termeasures that are likely to influence electoral campaigns influence mastered in offline and online disinformation cam- and amplify future policy directions. paigns by Russia. Our scenarios are based on the available polling that suggests that whilst pro-European parties will retain an overwhelming Now, a new element of majority in the future parliament, the eurosceptics will fare uncertainty may add to this stronger than in the past. There is a general consensus that the eurosceptic appeal has already tempestuous background; been boosted by the three following factors: the global eco- nomic crisis of 2008, the immigration crisis of 2015 and finally the results of the next European by a coordinated effort of third parties – mostly the Russians election could bring a strong but also by some right-wing elements originating from the US. showing for eurosceptic parties. This is an hour of truth for the EU, which – for the first time in its history – is on its own. Importantly for this study, the Visegrad countries that joined the EU in 2004 are increasingly standing out in the larger Eu- ropean context. Three of the four members remain outside the eurozone; Slovakia being the sole Central European country to have adopted the single currency. 3 European Parliamentary #Futures Home of Eurosceptics PAGE6 Illiberal Fadeout PAGE 8 Grand Rule of Law Digital resilience PAGE 10 Gang of nations PAGE 4 12VISEGRAD INSIGHT SPECIAL EDITION 2 (14) | 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY #FUTURES Fear of disinformation PAGE14 False narratives PAGE 18 Digital resilience 20PAGE How to detect a troll? 24PAGE 5 SCENARIO 1 Home of Eurosceptics Kaczyński and Orbán join ranks As a result of electoral dynamics, representatives from the V4 countries see their numbers grow in the European Conservatives and Reformists group. This retracts many ambitious reform plans for the EU and increases the spread of illiberal messages across Europe. 6 VISEGRAD INSIGHT SPECIAL EDITION 2 (14) | 2019 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY #FUTURES • The V4-ECR will be sceptical of The Czech ODS, set up by Vaclav Momentarily united in their goals, the future EU Commission and of Klaus, is already an ECR member but Fidesz and PiS increase their attacks the pro-European majority in the wins EP seats and extends their influence. on the liberal democratic model akin EP, but it will not become openly A similar situation plays out for the lib- to smear campaigns against George anti-European. ertarian Freedom and Solidarity party of Soros, moderate politicians in the EPP, • On fundamental issues of EU for- Richard Sulik in Slovakia.Together with the LGBTQ community as well as eign policy, the V4-ECR is likely the mildly-eurosceptic Ordinary People’s Islamophobic and nativist rhetoric. to vote together with the majority Party, the power of the ECR grows re- Contrastingly, the Czech ODS and of the EP. This list includes Rus- markably compared with the previous Slovak SaS see the liberal democracies sia sanctions, unified positions EP session. of Central Europe as not being liberal on China as well as human rights enough and edge towards libertarianism. violations in Cuba and Belarus. HOME TO EUROSCEPTICS Surprisingly, although for different rea- However, Fidesz later votes to end In this scenario, the ECR group becomes sons, all four parties share a similar dis- Russian sanctions. a natural home for eurosceptics in gener- satisfaction with the traditional western • The V4-ECR is vehemently an- al, but it specifically has a Visegrad-hue political model. ti-immigrant and resists attempts due to some distinct regional charac- from the Commission to pursue teristics. All these parties have scepti- FLIRTING WITH THE FAR-rIGHT any unified approach towards cal – though not rejectionist – attitudes At the same time, the far-right Nations common immigration policy. On towards the EU. They question the scope and Freedom Group (ENF) and anti-Eu- this issue, the V4-ECR vote to- and extent of European integration but ropean Freedom and Direct Democracy gether with the ENF and EFDD. refrain (at least openly) from calling for Group (EFDD) both make gains in the • From the EU financial perspective, the withdrawal from the EU. election. there is disunity in the grouping. Moreover, both the Polish PiS and Talks are held between the three The Poles, Hungarians, Romani- Hungarian Fidesz are in fact portraying eurosceptic parties (including the ECR) ans, Croats and Latvians vote in themselves as true Europeans who call about uniting under a single banner, favour of a larger budget and more for the reform of the EU along Gaullist which would give this new grouping extensive transfers. The Czechs, lines. This echoes back to the idea of a around 25 – 27 per cent of seats and Slovaks and German libertarians Europe of the Nations and with the de- make them the biggest grouping in the vote against this proposal. sire to repatriate powers back to nations’ parliament, overtaking even the EPP. • On the appointments to the EU capitals. However, the ECR is not as far-right Commission, the grouping at All is not united in the ECR, how- as the ENF and is not as anti-European times abstains or unwillingly sup- ever. Both the Czech and Slovak parties as the EFDD. Moreover, the two latter ports EPP candidates. As regards are more eurosceptic than the other V4 groupings are evidently pro-Russian, the President of the European members, seeing the EU as a grand bu- which may be acceptable for Fidesz but Central Bank, the group has no reaucratic plot and often likening it to the not for PiS, which maintains a vehement- strong views since it is essentially former Soviet Union. ly anti-Russian stance. anti-euro. Even so, they still hold back from Therefore, the differences between calling for a withdrawal from the EU in the ENF, EFDD and ECR are too signifi- order to avoid the chaos exemplified by cant for the time being and the talks end EXPULSION OF ORBAN Brexit. with them divided. The ECR retains its The Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) separate status somewhere in the mid- wins the biggest V4 representation, gain- DOMESTIC AGENDA FIRST dle between the EPP and the radical ing 25 MEPS, in the EP and is likely to All these and many other parties are eurosceptics. become more dominant in the European anti-immigrant and strongly reject EU Inevitably, Brexit causes harm to the Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) fac- interference in the individual member ECR’s relative position and status in the tion.