Editorial Board

Advisor BG Chua Boon Keat

Chairman COL Simon Lee Wee Chek

Deputy Chairman COL(NS) Irvin Lim

Members COL(NS) Tan Swee Bock COL(NS) Benedict Ang Kheng Leong COL Victor Huang COL Kevin Goh COL Goh Tiong Cheng MAJ(NS) Charles Phua Chao Rong MS Melissa Ong MS Ho Ying Ting MR Kuldip Singh MR Daryl Lee Chin Siong MS Sonya Chan CWO Ng Siak Ping Professor Pascal Vennesson Assistant Professor Daniel Chua MR Eddie Lim

Editorial Team

Editor MS Helen Cheng

Assistant Editor MR Bille Tan

Research Specialists PTE David Omar Ting PTE Koo Yi Xian PTE Jasmond Oh

ß The opinions and views expressed in this journal do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Ministry of Defence. Pointer Editorial Board reserves the right to edit and publish selected articles according to its editorial requirements. All rights reserved. The articles in this journal are not to be reproduced in part or in whole without the consent of the Ministry of Defence.

Copyright ©2018 Ministry of Defence. POINTER JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES

ISSN 2017-3956 Vol. 44 No. 2 [2018]

contents

iii EDITORIAL

FEATURES 01 At the Leading Edge: The RSAF and the Fourth Industrial Revolution by LTC Clement Wee Yong Nien, MAJ Tay Cheng Chuan & MAJ Ho Jin Peng

12 Autonomy: The Next Frontier by ME6 Tan Kwang Liang, CPT Lim Guang He & ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen

24 The Internet of Things: Applications and Challenges for the RSAF by ME6(DR) Reuben Lim Chi Keong, MAJ Pek Wee Kian & ME5 David Bey

35 The Emergence of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems: Opportunities and Challenges by LTC Ho Sen Kiat, MAJ Lee Mei Yi & CPT Sim Bao Chen

45 Building A Resilient RSAF by LTC Ang Teo Hong, MAJ Nicholas Tay Weizhe & ME4 Kok Khew Fai

58 Manpower Resources and the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for the RSAF by LTC Nan Yik Mun, CPT Koh Tze Kia & CPT Zech Tan E-an contents

BOOK REVIEW 70 Neal Bascomb, The Winter Fortress: The Epic Mission to Sabotage Hitler’s Atomic Bomb by Jeria Kua

PERSONALITY PROFILE

76 Marie Skłodowska Curie by Koo Yi Xian

82 QUOTABLE QUOTES editorial iii

Editorial

In this second issue of POINTER for 2018, we adopt the opportunities offered by the 4IR. This will are pleased to present an Air Force-themed issue. keep the RSAF at the leading edge in operations, The theme is ‘At the Leading Edge – Opportunities engineering, logistics and training. and Challenges in the Age of the Fourth Industrial The second essay, ‘Autonomy: The Next Frontier’ Revolution (4IR) and Hybrid Warfare.’ This issue cast by ME6 Tan Kwang Liang, CPT Lim Guang He and ME4 the spotlight on the Republic of Singapore Air Force Gerald Goh Qi Wen explores what existing definitions (RSAF) as a forward looking air force, ready to tackle and models of autonomy mean in the context of the the challenges and seize opportunities presented by RSAF, and analyses the trajectory of technologies the development of 4IR technologies like Artificial and military applications that will define autonomy Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), in the foreseeable future. In discussing how the autonomous vehicles while continuing to respond to RSAF can leverage such applications to enhance the menace of hybrid warfare. The essays in this issue its capabilities, the authors also examine how the will explore important issues that the RSAF will need RSAF needs to continuously evolve to address the to consider in the face of the 4IR. These essays will attendant demands, complexities and vulnerabilities cover anticipated changes in the future operating of autonomous systems. environment, the challenges and opportunities that the RSAF will encounter, and the new organisational ME6 (DR) Reuben Lim Chi Keong, MAJ Pek Wee capacities and competencies that the force will need Kian and ME5 David Bey present their perspective on to create to stay ahead of the curve. ‘The Internet of Things: Applications and Challenges for the RSAF.’ Their essay defines the IoT and its The first essay is entitled, ‘At the Leading Edge: military application. One of these is its potential to The RSAF and the Fourth Industrial Revolution’ and shift sense-making and decision-making from non- is written by LTC Clement Wee Yong Nien, MAJ Tay real-time, man-in-the-loop to real-time, autonomous Cheng Chuan and MAJ Ho Jin Peng. According to the processes. The essay discusses how this can alleviate authors, 4IR is transforming every aspect of society, manpower-intensive tasks in a ‘smart airbase’, in and the military is no exception. The authors go on to order to acheve more efficient and effective air power explain how the IoT, System of Systems and AI form generation. The essay also discusses implementation the foundation upon which the 4IR is built. In the risks and how the RSAF’s early experience in commercial world, people are beginning to witness implementing the complex Island Air Defence System the disruptive effects of 4IR, which levels the playing of Systems (IADSoS) provides a useful guide. field for upstarts and established incumbents. The essay highlights the need for the RSAF to build a The fourth essay, ‘The Emergence of Small culture of innovation so that its people at all levels Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS): Opportunities and of the organisation are best positioned to adapt and Challenges’ is written by LTC Ho Sen Kiat, MAJ Lee Mei

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 editorial iv

Yi and CPT Sim Bao Chen. According to the authors, introduce the RSAF’s existing Adaptive, Innovative advancement in sUAS development has provided and Resilient (AIR) programme − ab initio − and opportunities for the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) discuss how this can be extended into the units. to rethink the way their business is done. The authors The final essay in this issue entitled ‘Manpower suggest that the sUAS can play a greater role in both Resources and 4IR: Opportunities for the RSAF’ is peacetime military operations and future battlefields, written by LTC Nan Yik Mun, CPT Koh Tze Kia and enabling mission accomplishment with safer, faster CPT Zech Tan E-an. It expounds on the potentially and greater efficiency. Conversely, the threat of virtuous cycle that can result if 4IR technologies sUAS poses a significant challenge to the peace and are used to optimise manpower resources and vice security of Singapore. The authors further suggest versa. The essay first covers the impact that the several steps the SAF must take in order to develop and field sUAS innovations. At the same time, the SAF 4IR will have on labour markets in the commercial needs to develop capabilities and measures to defend world to better understand the implications of 4IR on against sUAS threats. force manpower resoure management. A case-study approach that draws examples from the private sector ‘Building a Resilient RSAF’ is written by LTC Ang and foreign militaries is taken to: (1) identify areas Teo Hong, MAJ Nicholas Tay Weizhe and ME4 Kok in which 4IR technologies can be applied to optimise Khew Fai and examine how information operations manpower in the RSAF; and (2) identify programmes are employed in hybrid warfare to target a fighting that other militaries have used to develop Science, force’s soft underbelly – through public opinion and Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) the fighting force’s will to fight. As such, against the talents. Lastly, the essay discusses how the RSAF can advent of hybrid warfare, beyond the core type and engender ground-up innovation to better mobilise its task training, there is a need to train resilient airmen. airmen to respond nimbly to the opportunities of 4IR. This builds on the government’s existing efforts through Total Defence and SGSecure. The authors also The POINTER Editorial Team

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.1 features 1 AT THE LEADING EDGE: THE RSAF AND THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

by LTC Clement Wee Yong Nien, MAJ Tay Cheng Chuan & MAJ Ho Jin Peng

Abstract:

The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) marks the dawn of a new age for every aspect of society, including the military. Technological advancements will blur the lines between the physical, digital and biological spheres and cause the distinction between man and machine, real world and virtual reality to be less defined. This essay explains how the enabling concepts of the 4IR including the Internet of Things (IoT) and the System of Systems (SoS) will lead to game-changing developments in the areas of Augmented Reality (AR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The essay highlights the need for the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) to build a culture of innovation so that its airmen are best positioned to adapt and adopt the opportunities offered by the 4IR at all levels of the organisation. This will keep the RSAF at the leading edge in operations, engineering, logistics and training. The essay goes on to recognise the associated challenges posed by the disruption of the 4IR but reassures the readers that these are not insurmountable so long as the RSAF embraces them with the spirit of innovation and resilience.

Keywords: Developments; Adapt; Adopt; Innovation; Resilience

INTRODUCTION In view of the shift towards Hybrid Warfare, militaries need to adopt fundamentally different The evolving nature of conflict towards Hybrid capability development strategies and to respond Warfare has overturned the logic of conventional more nimbly to this new strategic security landscape. warfare. Developments in the realms of cyber and There needs to be a more innovative approach to information technologies have led to the rise of solutioning. non-conventional capabilities. Low-cost non-kinetic solutions such as cyberwarfare, have been proven The 4IR provides military organisations like to be effective alternatives in achieving military the RSAF with an opportunity to develop a more objectives. These non-conventional capabilities have comprehensive range of options including non-kinetic provided a low barrier-to-entry for both militaries capabilities. Parallel developments in Augmented/ and terrorist organisations alike, especially those Virtual Reality (AR/VR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), with smaller budgets, to rapidly develop cutting- autonomy, neural implants and small unmanned edge capabilities without necessarily investing large aerial systems (sUAS) and swarming have resulted in amounts in conventional warfighting solutions. This boundless opportunities awaiting to be exploited. has ‘levelled the playing field’ and threatens the To take advantage of these opportunities, a strong stranglehold of established conventional militaries. culture of innovation and a willingness to embrace

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 2 new technologies will be needed to adapt and adopt The 4IR was fi rst introduced by Professor Klaus disruptive solutions at the organisational level. Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Looking at it from another lens, these are also Economic Forum, in an essay published in Foreign opportunities afforded to our potential adversaries. Affairs back in December 2015. Unlike previous In addition to ensuring that we guard against the Industrial Revolutions, the 4IR is characterised by the blurring of lines between the physical, digital and threat of Hybrid Warfare from a technical perspective, biological spheres, where the lines between man and it is also imperative that we develop our personnel’s machine, real world and virtual reality are no longer resilience in this new operating environment. as clearly defi ned. PHENOMENON OF THE 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION Internet Of Things (IoT) and System Of Systems (SoS)

Throughout history, man has benefi tted fi rst- Whenever the topic of 4IR is raised, IoT invariably hand from the technological advances during each appears on everyone’s minds. In simplistic terms, IoT and every Industrial Revolution. The First Industrial is the concept of basically connecting any device with Revolution was characterised by the mechanisation an ‘on’ and ‘off’ switch to the Internet (and/or to each of the production process, improved effi ciency and other).2 As broadband and mobile network technologies increased usage of water and steam power. The Second continue to mature, they will not only be faster but Industrial Revolution brought about mass production also become more affordable, and consequently reach through the use of assembly lines and the harnessing out to an even larger part of the world. Therefore, of electrical power, while computers and automation IoT will continue to grow and intertwine the lives of were the lynchpins of the Third Industrial Revolution. people and their devices at an exponential rate.

The 4th Industrial Revolution.1

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 3 The 4IR provides military organisations sources, before it switches to your favourite radio like the RSAF with an opportunity station for the rest of the journey. In the military domain, IoT has the potential to unlock resource to develop a more comprehensive savings, especially through the optimisation of the range of options including non-kinetic logistics chain. capabilities. As exciting as IoT might sound, what is perhaps more pertinent to us would be the military applications So, what is the signifi cance of IoT? With IoT, and promises of SoS. SoS itself seeks to pool resources our interactions with home appliances and personal and capabilities together to create new, more devices will fundamentally change. It will no longer complex systems which offers more functionality and be an ‘I Decide, I Command, Device Act’ relationship performance than simply the sum of the constituent anymore. Future devices will be able to predict or even tell us what we want or need. Imagine a future systems, an area which has registered interests from 3 in which your smartphone essentially acts as your experts in the military and medical fi elds. personal assistant, managing things around you like One key highlight in the area of SoS is the clockwork. Setting the alarm would be a thing of the development of collaborative autonomous Unmanned past as your smartphone would automatically wake you up based on the fi rst event in your schedule. Aerial Systems (UAS) operations, better known as Once out of the shower, your perfect cup of coffee swarming. The swarm of UAS will be able to carry out would be ready for consumption. On your way to work, missions in a self-reconfi guring manner, such that if your smartphone would have selected and read out one UAS gets taken out, the others autonomously loud the most relevant news and cover the pertinent change their behaviour to complete the mission. sections after scouring through multiple information Imagine the following scenario illustrated below:

UAS Scenario

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 4

Sounds far-fetched? Even though the level of allowing contingency training in a safe and realistic autonomy for the entire decision chain is still to be environment. Separately, the successful implant of a debated due to ethical reasons, the scenario which neural chip allowed a man to feel touch through a was just illustrated is a possibility in the future, prosthetic by directly simulating his brain.4 This not given the rapid pace of technological advancement. only has medical uses but has unlocked the potential of military applications in the future. Separately, hobbyists’ interests in small Unmanned The Game Changer: Artificial Intelligence Aerial Systems (sUAS) such as the DJI Phantom have resulted in the emergence of sUAS in the commercial While the previous Industrial Revolutions had enhanced our workforce’s efficiency, the 4IR is sector. In parallel, commercial companies have also fundamentally different as the scale of its development invested in the development of basic collaborative has unlocked the possibility of robotics replacing behaviours in sUAS. For example, the use of 300-drones the human in the production chain, or even the for a lighting display featured at National Day Parade application of force during war. 4IR is not just about 2017 was developed by Intel, an American technology the technological advances previously mentioned, firm. The development and availability of Commercial- but technological breakthroughs and game changers off-the-Shelf (COTS) sUAS with basic collaborative in areas such as AI. Even though we are still some behaviour will only serve to reduce the cost-of-entry way off the eventual end state of replicating a human to introduce swarm sUAS for military use. mind using computers, recent developments such as Blurring The Lines Between Physical, Digital and Google’s AlphaGo defeating the world’s top Go player Biological Spheres and Google’s DeepMind AI teaching itself how to walk So, what exactly does 4IR entail? The truth is suggest that technology is in progress towards true that there are too many parallel developments in the AI.5 The amazing feat is that these AI have the ability 4IR which are unprecedented, largely attributed to to learn from past experiences and continue to evolve, the amazing computing power available to us today. which makes it possible to pick up something new at a The pace and scale of these developments will only faster rate than humanly possible. AlphaGo was able continue to grow with the increase in the processing to continue to improve by observing others’ matches power of computers. Augmented Reality (AR), neural and has become its own teacher, playing millions of implants and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are just some training games against itself to continually improve.6 of the developments which blur the lines between Google’s successes in AI not only generated more the physical, digital and biological domains. AR, as interests in the topic, but will likely result in more the name suggests, are the digital enhancements investments and resources devoted into this area, to what we see in the real world. The mobile app which in turn accelerates the growth of AI. Pokemon Go was a success story in the application of AR in gaming. In the military domain, AR promises As highlighted earlier, every Industrial Revolution to help us achieve more realistic training so that our transcends and overcomes the physical limitations personnel are able to get more out of each training of human abilities. The 1st to 3rd IR were able to session by replicating real world conditions and replace labour intensive production and shaped the

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 5 nature of warfare kinetically from swords and guns, Whitman’s stewardship, HP embraced its motto to to tanks and planes. Machines that evolved through ‘Keep Reinventing’. HP innovated and experimented the years could provide the power to do what humans with new ideas in a competitive market, even split physically could not. However, humans remained itself into two entities to remain nimble in different the core element to operate these machineries. This specialised fields.7 Today, HP’s laptops and tablets human-machine relationship will change in the 4IR. have remained competitive through constant focus on AI could now replace human intelligence in operating design excellence, underpinned by innovation.8 machinery autonomously, while advanced robotics In line with the government’s SMART Nation drive, could replace human labour, even in the manufacture Singapore’s Civil Service is actively seeking to foster a of delicate hand-crafted items with 3D printing. This culture of innovation and encouraging civil servants revolution brings about unique opportunities and to “think big, start small, act fast.”9 Similarly, the challenges that can disrupt the foundation of the RSAF needs to embrace a culture of innovation to current human-machine model. optimise the opportunities presented by the 4IR, in For the RSAF, the 4IR can present opportunities order to stay relevant, operationally effective and for cheaper and more effective operations, increased resource efficient. At the leading edge, the RSAF can engineering and logistics throughput, as well as no longer rely on acquiring off the shelf systems and better aids for more effective training. In the same will need to work with defence technology partners breath, the technologies introduced could also pose to meet our unique operational requirements and open challenges in the areas of manpower management, as up new possibilities for the way we conduct business. well as the threats of cyber vulnerabilities and hybrid This requires a strong innovative spirit in our airmen warfare. to power both top down and bottom up initiatives, to take advantage of 4IR technologies. CREATING A CULTURE OF INNOVATION

Every IR provides an opportunity to level the Top down innovation, or big ‘I’ innovation, could playing field for new and old entities. Newcomers manifest through organisational changes initiated and underdogs will have the opportunity to catch by MINDEF/SAF, HQ RSAF or Formation HQs such as up, whereas incumbents require a strong culture the review of existing productivity and innovation of innovation and a willingness to embrace new structures/processes or organisational restructuring technologies to remain at the leading edge within its to strengthen operations. Bottom-up innovation, field. The recent experience of Hewlett-Packet (HP) or small ‘i’ innovation, taps into ground innovation is a good illustration. In 2011, CEO Meg Whitman mechanisms, such as the PRIDE movement, to identify inherited HP, a 72-year old IT company in turmoil areas for improvement in our practical, everyday tasks. as it struggled in an industry that was moving These small ‘i’ innovations could have a big impact away from Personal Computers to mobile phones that transcend the confines of local implementations and tablets. Once a leading giant in the industry, within the originating units, and scale across the HP’s sales tanked with competition from emerging RSAF or even MINDEF/SAF to reap its full potential. companies such as Apple and Amazon. However, under Leadership emphasis and resources would be required

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 6 for both big ‘I’ and small ‘i’ innovations to seek out Information Superiority. Information Superiority is opportunities from the e4IR, while identifying ways to defined as “the operational advantage derived from actively remove impediments to innovation. the ability to collect, process and disseminate an For the RSAF, the 4IR can present uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting opportunities for cheaper and more or denying an adversary’s ability to do the same.”12 effective operations, increased For the Air Force, it entails enhancing the Observe, engineering and logistics throughput, Orient, Decide and Act (OODA) decision process.13 as well as better aids for more effective Under the Observe phase, swarm UAVs will be able training. to provide persistent real time data collection from the battlefield, thereby alleviating the fog OPPORTUNITIES of war. With these ‘big data’ collected, advanced Air Operations at A Lower Cost AI and algorithms can be employed to process the The most significant promise of the 4IR is the deluge of information, in order to derive meaningful ability to conduct air operations at a lower cost. With conclusions under the Orient phase. At the Decide UAS technology maturing, as well as the ability to phase, Artificial Intelligence can be applied to assist miniaturise aerial vehicles, the promise of low cost air operations can be better realised. In the past, the air commanders in recommending the best course of force has had to pay a premium to increase payload, actions so as to optimise complex systems of systems. range and endurance for its flying platforms. For Lastly, under the Act phase, warfighters can exploit example, earlier fighter aircraft, such as the F-4E cost the connectivity through the IoT to gain heightened US$16.4 million each (2010 dollars) compared to the situational awareness and dominate the air. The F-15E which cost US$100 million each (2006 dollars). promise of big data, autonomy and AI will enable However, such trends can be overcome by embracing the 4IR to replace the man in executing the OODA UAS technology and making planes smaller, not loop. However, these technologies should be utilised bigger. To illustrate, the USAF’s MQ-9 Reaper is able to loiter for 14 hours and carry four Hellfire missiles for the more mundane and straight forward tasks, or two JDAMs. The unit cost of each reaper is US$13 such as surveillance. For more complex missions that million (2014 dollars), 7.7 times cheaper than the F-15 require operational art, manned operations will still fighters. In due time, UAVs will provide a cheaper be required. For example, air to air battles require alternative to manned flights in fulfilling less complex real time strategies and tactics to be interpreted and tasks.10 In addition, swarm sUAVs, with its ability for devised, something which rule-based AI may not yet collective decision-making, adaptive formation flying be able to undertake. and self-healing, will have the potential to deliver persistent surveillance, or strike capabilities.11 Seamless Air Power Generation

Enhanced Information Superiority For air power generation, the 4IR will help to The second application of 4IR technology is the enhance supply chain efficiency, resulting in shorter use of automation and AI to process big data for turnaround and lesser manpower. With the Internet

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 7 of Things, demands for equipment or munition can to make some niche items such as medical implants be readily transmitted to a centralised supply chain or plastic models for engineers and designers. This node, where the logistic plans can be optimised to technology is already showing potential in the ensure equipment are pushed to where it is needed aviation industry. For example, General Electric, the most. For example, the F-35 Autonomic Logistics world’s largest supplier of jet engines, has embraced Information System (ALIS) can extract and transmit 3D printing technology to create fuel nozzle tips aircraft health and maintenance action information to that are five times more durable and 25% lighter in the appropriate users, such that the right preventive weight.17 To push the technology further, General maintenance can be taken timely.14 The introduction Electric is developing advanced turboprop engine of ALIS promises significant cost and manpower for Cessna’s new aircraft with additive technology savings per flying hour.15 If a similar ALIS system can in mind. This could eliminate more than 800 be applied across all air platforms where information conventionally manufactured parts.18 Notably, the can be transmitted vertically back to the supply chain, biggest potential of 3D printing, is its ability to to configure the right spares, technical personnel and produce an item anywhere with just a digital blueprint. payload for the next mission, there will be a reduction The Air Force in partnership with defence partners in the aircraft downtime and the man-hours required and manufacturers, can potentially create a localised for troubleshooting. In addition, robotics and self- supply facility where spares and small equipment driving vehicles provide the possibility of replacing can be manufactured locally on an on-demand basis. the manpower required to sort and transfer equipment Hence, if the Air Force requires an aircraft part, it can from centralised stores to the dispersals, or even be manufactured within a short span of time instead conduct turnaround actions such as refuel and rearm. of subjecting the process to the risks of long lead-

Localised Production Chain times and the uncertainty of deliveries which we can ill-afford. Such an on-demand concept will eliminate the cost of maintaining stockpiles without affecting aircraft availability.

Overcome Live Training Limitations

In training, the 4IR will be able to merge the physical and digital worlds through augmented and virtual reality. For the Air Force, the vision of Live, Virtual, and Constructive (LVC) elements Diagram of a turboprop engine.16 operating and fighting within the same space will

The next breakthrough in the engineering field is help overcome the limitations of live flights. Firstly, the potential of 3D printing to provide a cost-effective LVC is able to overcome resource limitations for means to meet supply requirements expeditiously. 3D peacetime live operations and training. With 50% printing, though currently in infancy, can be used of the RSAF’s flying conducted overseas, it is not

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 8 possible to create a critical mass to simulate the full profi le and up-skill in order to better adapt to emerging air campaign. However, through LVC, live assets can roles. For example, while an Air Force Engineer is be replaced virtually by operator-controlled simulator currently recruited to conduct maintenance work on systems and AI controlled constructive elements. an aircraft, he might fi nd himself needed in the future This will allow commanders to evaluate strategies and to supervise and troubleshoot the robot that will tactics in a complex, large scale environment, at a replace him. The Air Force will have to tap into the fraction of cost. Secondly, LVC is able to overcome technologically savvy workforce and create a culture the constraints of training space. While the RSAF of innovation and learning, where its airmen are ready leverages on overseas training space to conduct to take up new skills and welcome the possibilities realistic training, LVC allows local fl ights to receive that the 4IR will bring. similar training value by creating the same effects Cyber Vulnerabilities within the cockpit. Lastly, LVC has the potential to reduce training time. While pilots require a certain level of large force employment training to hone their skills, such training are inherently costly and diffi cult to co-ordinate. With LVC technology, such LFE experiences can be recreated more readily. The result could lead to shorter windows required to train operational pilots.

CHALLENGES Re-Profi ling Of Manpower Resource

The 4IR has been categorised as a form of Soldiers from the US National Guard participating in the disruptive change, not just in the way operations are annual Cyber Flag exercise.20 conducted, but also in the need to ‘up-skill’ jobs. The World Economic Forum has predicted that “65% of While the 4IR brings about new possibilities, it children entering primary school today will ultimately increases the reliance on computer systems, and end up working in completely new job types that don’t correspondingly, presents more vulnerabilities in the yet exist.”19 While the previous industrial revolution cyber realm. As computers are used to control every had disrupted blue-collar jobs, it had created jobs for aspect of operations, the Air Force has to ensure that white collar workers. In the 4IR, white collar jobs will these computerised capabilities do not fail as a result be displaced as well. It is assessed that the greatest of cyber vulnerabilities, or worse, be controlled by job displacement are those which are routine in hackers. Due to the increased reliance on networks nature, leaving complex problem solving and social and recognition of its vulnerabilities, many countries intelligence as the remaining human attributes that have set up national agencies to build up their are still relevant. Hence, as the RSAF embraces the cyber defence capabilities and hone their cyber ops 4IR in its future transformation, it is expected that capabilities.21 For example, the US Cyber Command our manpower management processes will need to re- annually conducts Cyber Flag, a cyberspace force-on-

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 9 force training exercise which fuses attack and defence poses a challenge to the RSAF, as an unregulated use across the full spectrum of military operations in a of civilian UAS can disrupt its operations and training. closed network environment.22 Hence, the RSAF will need to work with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore and Ministry of Home The RSAF will need to strengthen the Affairs to find ways to de-conflict and regulate the resilience of its airmen against the use of civilian UAS in an already congested airspace, employment of sophisticated Info as well as ensure that the UASs meet the required Ops tactics through emerging media airworthiness standards. In addition, the RSAF has to platforms. actively guard against the use of UAS for malicious intent by developing counter measures against UASs Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare and work with other regulating agencies to enforce restrictions on civil UAS. While the 4IR technology presents new opportunities for the RSAF, the same potential can CONCLUSION also be applied by our potential adversaries. Advanced The 4IR, characterised by disruptive technologies, technologies can be acquired at a low cost and presents vast opportunities for established militaries. present an increasing challenge to modern militaries. The RSAF prides itself as a technologically savvy outfit In recent conflicts, insurgents and paramilitaries and an early adopter of technological advancements. have been found to embrace commercially available Our ability to orientate to this 4IR wave and to adapt technology such as cell phone networks and satellite its opportunities into our psyche as well as our navigation to overturn its technological and resource capability development and operational development inferiority. With 4IR, the RSAF will have to contend strategies, will determine our ability to outsmart and with potential state or non-state adversaries with outlast our potential adversaries. access to cheap yet sophisticated technology, such as weaponised low cost UAS, weaponised self-driven The RSAF needs to be aware of the changes vehicles. In addition, the RSAF will need to strengthen entailed in embracing this 4IR wave. We need to the resilience of its airmen against the employment foster a strong culture of innovation to ensure that of sophisticated Info Ops tactics through emerging our organisational structure, processes and doctrines media platforms. for operations, engineering, logistics and training are sufficiently in place to prepare our airmen to ride this Governance of UAS wave and to keep the RSAF at the leading edge. The introduction of UAS for civil and military use has opened up a new dimension for aviation ENDNOTES governance. Not only does regulating bodies have to 1. Roser, Christoph. A critical look at Industry 4.0, All decide how manned and unmanned aircraft will co- About Lean.com, share the airspace safely, they have to manage the https://www.allaboutlean.com/industry-4-0/ intrusion of the general public into the aviation realm industry-4-0-2/ with little or no professional aviation training. This 2. Morgan, Jacob. A simple explanation of ‘The

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Internet of Things’, Forbes, https://www.forbes. www.defense.gov/News/News-Release/News-Release- com/sites/jacobmorgan/2014/05/13/simple- View/Article/1044811/department-of-defense- explanation-internet-things-that-anyone-can- announces-successful-micro-drone-demonstration/ understand/#763aa7801d09 12. US Army field manual FM 3-0 “Operations” Chapter 11 3. Dersin, Pierre. IEEE-Reliability Society. Technical Information Superiority Committee on ‘Systems of Systems’- White Paper, IEEE 13. The OODA loop refers to the Observe, Orient, Decide, and Reliability Society, Act, decision cycle developed by military strategist and http://rs.ieee.org/component/content/article/9/77- USAF COL John Boyd. system-of-systems.html 14. Autonomic Logistics Information System, Lockheed 4. Becker, Rachel. Brain chips let a man paralysed man feel Martin, http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/ touch through a robotic arm, The Verge, http://www. ALIS.html theverge.com/2016/10/13/13269824/brain-implant- 15. Clark, Colin. Lockheed Trumpets $4B More In F-35 Cost chip-feel-touch-robot-arm-paralyzed-tetraplegia Savings, Breaking Defense, http://breakingdefense. 5. Google AI defeats human Go champion, BBC News, com/2016/07/lockheed-trumpets-4b-more-in-f-35-cost- http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-40042581 savings/

Anderson, David. Google’s DeepMind AI taught itself 16. Bypass engine, Aviation Dictionary, http://avidic.ir/ to walk, Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider. public/show-word-single/751/bypass-engine com/google-deepmind-ai-artifical-intelligence- 17. Kellner, Tomas. An Epiphany Of Disruption: GE taught-itself-walk-2017-7/?IR=T Additive Chief Explains How 3D Printing Will Upend 6. AlphaGo vs AlphaGo: self play games, Deepmind Manufacturing, GE Reports,

http://deepmind.com/research/alphago/alphago-vs- http://www.geadditive.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjryT4 alphago-self-play-games/ pyH1QIVwpKPCh2T_AqrEAAYASAAEgI8EvD_BwE

7. In 2015, HP split its operations into two publicly 18. Kellner, Tomas. GE’s New Aviation Plant In The Heart traded companies in order to remain more nimble. Of Europe Will Build Engines With 3D Printed Parts For HP Enterprise specialised in hardware and data Next-Gen Cessna Denali, GE Reports, cloud services, while HP Inc. specialised in personal http://www.ge.com/reports/ges-new-aviation-plant- computer and printing business. heart-europe-will build-3d-printed-engines-next-gen- cessna-planes/ 8. http://www.pastermagazine.com/articles/2017/08/ 19. The Future of Jobs, World Economic Forum, http://www3. the-story-of-spectre-how-hp-reinvented-itself-thro. weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOJ_Executive_Summary_Jobs. html pdf 9. Ng, Kelly. Think big, start small, act fast, civil servants 20. Teams Defend Against Simulated Attacks in Cyber Guard told, Today, http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/ Exercise, U.S. Department of Defense, https://www. think-big-start-small-act-fast-civil-servants-told defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1237898/teams- 10. Bender, Jeremy. This Chart Shows The Staggering defend-against-simulated-attacks-in-cyber-guard- Hourly Cost Of Operating US Military Aircraft, Business exercise/ Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-shows- 21. The Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (CSA) is the hourly-cost-of-military-aircraft-2014-12/?IR=T national agency overseeing cybersecurity strategy, 11. Department of Defense Announces Successful Micro- operation, education, outreach, and ecosystem Drone Demonstration, Department of Defense,http:// development.

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22. ‘Cyber Flag’ Exercise Tests Mission Skills, Department of Defense, http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/ Article/603637

LTC Clement Wee Yong Nien is currently a Senior Force Transformation Officer (Air) with the Joint Plans and Transformation Department (JPTD). A Transport pilot by vocation, he had previously served as Commanding Officer (CO) of 121 SQN. He graduated from the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign with a Bachelors of Science in Electrical Engineering (Honours).

MAJ Tay Cheng Chuan is a Fighter Pilot by vocation and currently a Staff Officer in Force Development Branch (FDB), Air Plans Department (APD). MAJ Tay graduated from the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) as a Distinguished Graduate with a Bachelors of Science in Aeronautical Engineering.

MAJ Ho Jin Peng is a Helicopter Pilot by vocation and is currently an Officer Commanding (OC) in 120 SQN. MAJ Ho graduated from University College London with a Bachelors of Science in Economics (First Class Honours), and a Masters of Science in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 12 AUTONOMY: THE NEXT FRONTIER

by ME6 Tan Kwang Liang, CPT Lim Guang He & ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen

Abstract:

New waves of increasingly autonomous systems in both the physical and virtual realm introduce disruptive effects on the nature of human activity, including warfare. As with the government’s strategy to leverage the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies to enable the realisation of Smart Nation, the SAF must also adapt and transform itself to best exploit autonomy to meet future challenges. This essay explores what existing definitions and models of autonomy mean in the context of the RSAF and analyses the trajectory of technologies and military applications that will define autonomy in the foreseeable future. In discussing how the RSAF can leverage such applications to enhance its capabilities, this essay also examines how the RSAF needs to evolve itself to address the attendant demands, complexities and vulnerabilities of autonomous systems.

Keywords: Adapt; Challenges; Leverage; Enhance; Evolve

INTRODUCTION setup of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Command as part of its 3rd Generation transformation journey. Autonomy has always been a pinnacle goal But as digital technologies continue to mature, of human ingenuity. From driverless vehicles to chatbots to smart utility grids, rapid technological autonomy will not only be making a bigger difference advancement in robotics, data science and computing in the battlefield, but also in daily engineering, methods continue to drive new waves of increasingly maintenance, logistics and administration. autonomous systems in both the physical and virtual Yet, as autonomous systems grow more versatile, realm. In doing so, these technologies introduce more persistent and more lethal, so will the number disruptive effects on the nature of human activity, of questions about military ethics and the tradition including warfare. This phenomenon is most evident of a ‘man in the loop’ model. These questions in the employment of unmanned capabilities on the are especially valid for armed forces worldwide, battlefield, which has substituted the limits of human performance with the limits of machine performance where the use of force evokes dilemmas related to and autonomy. Consequently, armed forces have machine-assisted decision-making and autonomous had to rethink their organisational structures and warfighting. Indeed, as recent government strategies develop competencies to focus on the development of to leverage 4IR technologies suggest, the Singapore manned-unmanned operating paradigms, as was the Armed Forces (SAF) must adapt and transform itself case for the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF)’s in order to best exploit autonomy for future challenges.1

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This essay aims to advance an understanding of understanding, such as between mechatronics and what autonomy represents to the armed forces—and robotics.4 In an attempt to develop a more general how the RSAF should reconsider the way it conducts definition, Jenay M. Beer et al. compared several its daily business in the next bound of autonomous working definitions of autonomy in robotics literature capabilities. We do so by: (1) establishing a specific and proposed to define autonomy as “the extent to working definition of autonomy for the RSAF and which a robot can sense its environment, plan based on constructing an autonomy model adapted to the that environment and act upon that environment with RSAF’s context, (2) focusing on the trajectory of the intent of reaching some task-specific goal (either technologies and military applications that will given to or created by the robot) without external define autonomy in the foreseeable future and discuss control.”5 It is important to note, however, that Beer some of the challenges with the adoption of these et al.’s use of the term ‘robot’ does not necessarily technologies, and (3) discussing how the RSAF can imply autonomous systems restricted to the virtual evolve itself to address the attendant demands, realm. In merging these concepts, this essay proposes complexities, and vulnerabilities of autonomous the model in Figure 1 to resolve the automatic- systems. autonomous continuum within a system that may or may not interact with a human operator (as indicated WHAT IS AUTONOMY? by dotted lines). With this understanding, this essay The term autonomy—henceforth understood as builds on Beer et al.’s definition and proposes the autonomous systems to distinguish from autonomy in following definition of autonomy: the philosophical sense—is used widely today, but almost always in specific working definitions. One is to “The extent to which an ensemble of enabling examine autonomy by the amount of external control technologies and techniques can sense its required, and therefore define autonomous systems as environment, process sensual information from either “scripted, supervised, or intelligent.”2 Another its environment, plan based on that environment, is to focus on the complicated web of technologies act upon that environment with the intent of that enable a system to sense, process, plan, react achieving a task-specific goal, learn to optimise and learn without external control, a reference to the its existing techniques, and carry out self- application of machine learning and self-maintenance.3 maintenance without external control.” 6 Still, others define autonomy through comparative

Figure 1: Representation of an Autonomous System.

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WHAT MODEL OF AUTONOMY? an automatic or autonomous system: (1) information acquisition, (2) information analysis, (3) decision In prospecting a model for the RSAF’s approach and action selection, and (4) action implementation to autonomous systems, one useful reference is (See Figure 3 below).8 These four functions map to the the concept of ‘autonomy levels’ for task-specific Sense-Process-Plan-React chain in Figure 1. But as contexts. For instance, the Society of Automotive Luca Save et al. point out by using the example of Engineers (SAE) International published six levels the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS), these of autonomy to describe autonomous cars, while models do not translate adequately to real-world Thomas B. Sheridan and William L. Verplanck used a examples of automatic and autonomous systems.9 In 10-point scale to describe the levels of action and this manner, Save et al. argue that autonomy levels decision from low automation to full automation to are only meaningful if adapted to specific tasks. full autonomy (See Figure 2 below).7 Raja Parasuraman For the RSAF, it is important to recognise that any et al. added to the Sheridan-Verplanck 10-point scale potential framework for autonomy development will by associating these levels to four functions within require customised taxonomy for each specific task.

Figure 2: 10-point Scale of Automation and Autonomy.10

Figure 3: Model to Illustrate Different Levels of Automation within a System.11

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 15 AI can only be as good as the data AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS that it is exposed to. Head – Date Analytics With increasing data generation brought upon by Meanwhile, other frameworks expanded on the the digitisation of data and proliferation of sensors, definition of autonomy levels itself. For instance, there is a need for a more efficient and effective the Autonomy Levels for Unmanned Systems (ALFUS) manner of exploiting these large data sets for useful framework adopted three broad-based metrics— information. Data Analytics (DA) is a broad term that mission complexity, environmental complexity and encompasses both descriptive and predictive data human independence—to form autonomy levels.12 In mining capabilities. With the advent of Big Data, the context of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), Farid human capacities are quickly becoming the limiting Kendoul expanded the criteria further by arguing factor for faster and more accurate intelligence. This for a unified framework that not only assessed an is where autonomous DA comes into play. Machines unmanned system’s level of autonomy, but also the can manage large amounts of data to form coherent technological readiness of the autonomy-enabling Common Operating Pictures from which information technologies.13 Interestingly, Kendoul’s notion of or patterns could be derived. This could be in the autonomy as a function of constituent technologies form of Wikipedia, for tactical-level queries of basic highlights the importance of a cohesive approach information such as time, location and force strength in advancing complex systems through conscious based on the pooled datasets. For strategic-level design of its enabling components. By treating the analysis, DA machines would require algorithms and RSAF as a combination of multiple complex systems protocols based on known behaviours or machine with different task-specific contexts, we identify learning to distil relationships, hierarchies and key applications of 4IR that reinforce each other as linkages between different domains and make aspects of autonomy: data analytics, robotics and inferences based on assumptions where data gaps artificial intelligence. While the elaboration of task- are present. Most importantly, machines need to specific autonomy levels is beyond the scope of this present the required information through a simplified essay, it is useful to consider the three aspects of user interface to translate the capability into sound autonomy in using a simplified ‘Head-Heart-Hands’ decision-making and enhanced situational awareness. model (See Figure 4). Developments in the physical and data realm will then be plugged into the machines in a loop to build on the pool of data and behaviour sets for ever-improving simulation and modelling. Herein lies the key advantage of autonomous DA over human-driven DA. A team of analysts can never compete with machines in the accumulation of knowledge and experience from real-time and historical datasets and the manipulation of Big Data consistently and rapidly.

While technologies for autonomous DA are Figure 4: Head-Heart-Hands Model to Describe Autonomy. in existence, there remain key challenges to its

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 16 widespread implementation: infrastructure and refining of the models and protocols before rewards culture. For DA to be effective, it needs to overcome can be reaped. These factors can easily steer military data variety, veracity and complexity. Managing organisations away from autonomous DA towards more data of a variety of structures, or in some instances tried-and-tested solutions. To advance autonomous even unstructured data, is a challenge for machines. DA in the RSAF, there needs to be a cultural shift Machines may also not be equipped with the ability to towards greater Ops-Tech integration to develop discern the reliability of inherent imprecise data types user-oriented solutions, the embracement of public- based on contextual knowledge. Lastly, machines private partnerships to leverage on the success and need to be able to connect and correlate different maturity of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf technologies, datasets, and are limited by their protocols, i.e. they the build-up of a larger pool of data scientists on top may find it difficult to identify indirect, implicit or of our existing data analysts, and the adoption of a new connections between two data without the prior building blocks approach to build greater confidence input of a human operator. As such, a comprehensive in the technology while mitigating development risks. infrastructure for data storage and management is required before autonomous DA could be applied. The The RSAF needs to work closely with ideal infrastructure is an open source architecture the Defence Technology Committee to which can circumvent the variety of data generated develop a long-term strategy for the by proprietary systems and overcome the issue of data deployment of autonomous systems. compartmentalisation. This is obviously an obstacle for the RSAF which operate different sensors made Heart – Artificial Intelligence by different manufacturers across different services. In the modern age, driven by the increase in The need to compartmentalise data also stems from computational horsepower and the increasing concerns regarding the handling of information of volume and richness of data, Artificial Intelligence varying security classifications. The first step towards (AI) is most often associated with the ability of a data integration, therefore, is to ensure that the machine to independently learn from and adapt to implementation of autonomous DA is coherent with its surroundings. This is a marked improvement the RSAF’s In-Camp Training (ICT) strategy. over current automated, rules-based systems, which are limited by their ‘frozen’ programming and are It will take a considerable amount of time and not able to adapt or improve over time. The most human resource to ensure that DA machines are common technology trajectory for AI development equipped with the necessary protocols to be able revolves around a deep learning framework based to sense-make large datasets. The benefits of DA on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). An ANN is are also difficult to quantify and illustrate without modelled after the neuronal structure of the human a deep understanding of the systems and processes cerebral cortex and is capable of processing complex associated with the data. The often coined phrase data and ‘learn’ from large datasets. In the context ‘finding hidden patterns in Big Data’ also begs the of the military, the networking of weapon systems question of what exactly these hidden patterns are. is the first step towards the expansion of machine It must be understood and accepted that DA is not learning from the virtual realm to the physical realm a one-size-fits-all solution and requires constant using real data derived from the multitude of sensors

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 17 mounted onboard these systems. An effective AI with public members that deliberately fed them solution is thus not confined to a singular, narrow ‘poisonous’ inputs. The set-up and maintenance of cognitive system limited to specific tasks or domains, an accurate dataset, or the development of machines but should encompass large multi-nodal networks that that can reliably discern the truth by comparing allow military forces to better co-ordinate operations multiple sources, are key to ensuring that the machine in a shorter span of time across a myriad of domains, learning process is not disrupted. Lastly, as with including air, land, sea, space and cyber. More tactical any network-based digital solution, the potential of AI in the context of an intelligent supporting asset cyber-attacks disabling AI systems is ever-present. to troops on the ground is also useful to alleviate Network resilience and agility is needed to overcome workload, leaving only the task of decision-making to cyber vulnerabilities. Self-patching and self-defence humans. capabilities must also be built into the system to sidestep the aforementioned data contamination or Similar to DA, AI developments in the military direct attacks on the internal layers of the network. are often impeded by ambiguity over its definition This must be extended to all nodes within the network and effects, the opacity of an AI’s decision-making and would entail the integration of cyber defence process and concerns over cyber vulnerabilities. The technologies across multiple weapon systems operated ability of a machine to think and act independently by various services in a military organisation. triggers undue distrust and regulatory authorities such as airworthiness bodies are also wary of self- For the RSAF, there needs to be a common network evolving software that cannot undergo the necessary architecture and data structure across weapon verification and validation processes. The internal and sensor systems as part of a larger integrated workings of ANNs are also inherently a black box System-of-System. With a strongly-interconnected and it is difficult, if not impossible, to comprehend network, cyber resilience will become increasingly the logic behind its decision-making process. The important and there must be dedicated focus on the alternative model, using linear decision trees or technological and operational development in the establishing nodes with semantic attributes, trades cyber defence domain. There must be a robust testing off performance. This leads to the risks of undetected framework for AI systems in order to ensure that they biases in existing data or correlation based on non- function correctly even in hostile environments and existent cause-and-effect. An example could be a their scope of functions must be controlled to avoid recruitment AI that recommends more male candidates unintended consequences from unexpected logic for a specific job position, based on the fact that there failures. is already a large number of male employees in the company. In this case, the contextual knowledge of Hands – Robotics the history of patriarchal societies and the resultant gender imbalance in specific workforces is not taken The final piece of the autonomy puzzle is the advent into account. Machine learning is also susceptible of robotic systems that can work alongside or without to ‘rubbish in, rubbish out’. AI can only be as good humans independently, reducing risks to human lives as the data that it is exposed to. When AI chatbots and performing tasks beyond human capacities. were released for public testing, they were prone to Autonomous robots are the eyes and ears of the develop sexist or racist behaviours after interacting larger data network, feeding large amounts of data

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 18 for analysis and executing physical tasks based on the and take on undesirable moral values. Until the moral collective intelligence manifested from deep learning dilemma of using fully autonomous robots could be mechanisms. The enablers for autonomous robots resolved, it is likely that safeguards will be put in are network or even cloud connectivity, increasing place, and their full potential will not be realised. computational power, major advances in AI, the A framework to attribute accountability needs to development of smart materials and miniaturisation. be established in the RSAF so as to advance robotics. Whereas previous iterations of robots were limited to Where our rules of engagement can be reviewed remote control via a direct link, specific tasks based and refined to ensure clarity, the programming of on rules-based programming and were constrained robotics should err on the side of caution under by weight and rigidity of materials and endurance of ambiguous scenarios, even at the expense of mission their power source. Advancements in these areas have effectiveness or efficiency. The development of truly enabled robots to share critical information with each autonomous robots will take time, as it requires other as a ‘swarm’, decide on behaviours based on significant integration efforts involving both observation of other robots, adapt to its environment software and AI, as well as advanced hardware. It will through machine learning, adopt bio-mimicry such as be prudent to take a long-term stepped approach to morphing wings and perform self-charging through mitigate development risk. wireless inductive power transfer. This will allow robots to shed their traditional image as cumbersome CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS OF machines with limited applications. AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS

Any discussion about robots will invariably lead to a Given the opportunities and challenges of discussion about ethics. There have been widespread autonomous systems, it is important for the RSAF calls for bans on fully autonomous robots based on to consider several questions. Where should the the fear that they could become uncontrollable and RSAF prioritise autonomy for the highest pay-off? fail to exercise human judgement even when the Comparing the advantages and disadvantages of situation calls for it. Even if the rules of engagement autonomy in each specific task, what is the strategy are programmed into robots, there will inevitably be to introduce autonomous systems progressively? ambiguous situations that require decision making How can the RSAF work better with the Defence based on human values. Programming of values Technology Community (DTC) to operationalise has to be specific enough to be computable, yet autonomous systems? How can the RSAF prepare its abstract enough to cover all situations. The inability people to operate and innovate more effectively of a robot to make such nuanced calls could lead to with autonomous systems? How will autonomous protests against its usage, even if it can be proven systems influence the RSAF’s safety culture? How to be less prone to error, fatigue or emotions than to reconcile the moral and ethical complications of human combatants. An alternative would be to allow using autonomous systems? Considering the range machines to perform their own ethical reasoning of policies and behaviours that the RSAF can adopt, through machine learning. Although this will most we develop a strategy based on the three pillars of closely replicate human behaviour, there is also a risk ‘Concepts and Capabilities’, ‘Organisation’ and ‘People’ that machines could learn from wrong role models See Figure 5 on the next page.

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CONCEPTS AND CAPABILITIES ORGANISATION PEOPLE Clear Assessment of Desired Outcomes Greater Collaboration with Other Review of Roles, Services Responsibilities and Rules of Engagement Ops-Tech Integration Prudent Investment in High- Training a More Technical Payoff Areas Workforce

Figure 5: Strategy for Autonomy.

CONCEPTS AND CAPABLILITIES achieve autonomy without the other. The RSAF must Clear Assessment of Desired Outcomes provide the DTC with clear operational requirements and the DTC must respond with user-oriented and Employing autonomous technology requires practical solutions. Operational concepts and sustained Research and Development (R&D) efforts technology development cannot continue in silos, and a realistic assessment of the potential payoffs. or parallel tracks, as this will eventually lead to Long drawn R&D is often a challenge given the short technically unrealistic concept of operations or acquisition and budget cycles. Therefore, the RSAF technologies with no real applications in the RSAF’s needs to work closely with the DTC to develop a long- context. There must be frequent touch-points between term strategy for the deployment of autonomous the two communities and each must own a stake in systems. The R&D efforts will have to contend with the eventual outcome, i.e. a technologically advanced the pace of technology in other related areas. Thus, SAF. The strategic partnership must evolve beyond commitment to the long-term plan is critical, as a customer-provider relationship, and this mindset autonomous systems require a build-up of a common must be drilled into all levels of both the RSAF and architecture and deviations could easily occur when the DTC. Ops-Tech integration extends beyond the ready, short-term proprietary solutions present military domain and should include the civilian sector. themselves. The DTC must also present the true Technological development in the private sector has capabilities and limitations of autonomous systems picked up pace ever since the introduction of tech and calibrate the expectations of the eventual users. giants such as Google, Facebook and Tesla. Smaller A building blocks approach is thus useful to ensure tech companies and research institutions are also that both the RSAF and DTC reap small rewards in actively involved in autonomous technologies. The relatively short intervals and are driven to continue RSAF cannot continue to ignore these developments the push towards the frontier of technology. This also and should lean forward to engage these companies allows the long-term plan to be adjusted based on or institutions in collaborative projects. This public- technological advancements and reviewed based on private partnership approach is not new and has been evolving operational demands. the modus operandi for the Israeli and American defence research organisations, which regularly Ops-Tech Integration taps on the collective wisdom of academics and Ops-Tech integration is essential for the success of researchers through open competitions or limited- these projects, as neither the RSAF nor the DTC could access contracts.

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For AI to be truly effective, the entire in autonomous technologies. The long-term payoff and SAF, including the newly set-up Defence uncertainties of the relatively nascent developments are also potential roadblocks to R&D efforts. Hence, Cyber Organisation, must work closely there needs to be proper prioritisation of investment together. through the identification of technologies with the greatest returns on investment. This involves ORGANISATION extensive horizon scanning and market research to Greater Collaboration with other Services assess the maturity of various technologies and their applicability to the RSAF’s concept of operations. This For AI to be truly effective, the entire SAF, must be a concerted effort by both the RSAF and the including the newly set-up Defence Cyber Organisation DTC and the payoffs must be in the form of Capability (DCO), must work closely together. Creating a network Development (CAPDEV) for both organisations, in terms of airborne systems alone would be insufficient for of warfighting capabilities through sophisticated the RSAF’s operations, e.g. inputs from ground troops weapon systems and tech capabilities through or ships on the location and behaviours of targets and technology transfer or knowledge gained from R&D threats will greatly complement the RSAF’s airborne that could be applied to future CAPDEV. In short, the sensors. The enhanced Common Operating Picture can technological and integration risks of these ventures then enable the RSAF to successfully complete its kill should not exceed the envisaged capability leap of chain while evading hostile threats. The ability to the RSAF. Investments should also have clearly stated co-ordinate strikes and manoeuvres across different exit milestones to ensure that MINDEF/SAF do not get entrapped in the development cycle of a technology services is also contingent on the compatibility of that has not realised its potential. each of the services’ sensors and shooters with each other through a common SAF network. The PEOPLE compartmentalisation of data between the strategic Review of Roles, Rules and Responsibility and tactical layers also needs to be reviewed to Despite the potential of autonomous systems to ensure access for data analytics to perform accurate re-imagine existing capabilities and create greater and comprehensive predictive modelling to provide battle planners with enhanced situational awareness in a rapidly evolving warfighting environment. The DCO also plays a crucial role in ensuring that the inherent cyber vulnerabilities of the SAF’s networks are not exploited by hostile agents. This is especially vital if all the SAF’s systems are integrated on the same architecture and are potentially exposed to a synchronised cyber attack.

Prudent Investment in High-Payoff Areas

With the slow recovery of the global economy, the A MQ-9 Reaper flying near Creech Air Force base during a local budget climate may be a barrier to making investments training mission.14

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 21 organisational capacity, the attendant risks are not Training A More Technical Workforce trivial matters. One major concern is accountability: With autonomous systems as decision support the dilemma of attribution in manned-unmanned tools or as replacements for physical work, the activities requires a consistent policy in defining demand for human intervention will shift towards the roles and responsibilities of human operators machine control. Akin to how the digital revolution vis-à-vis the autonomous systems under their incorporated computer literacy as part of networked charge. This dilemma is especially pertinent in the warfighting, the implementation of autonomous case of autonomous weapon systems, where the application of lethal force involves multiple layers systems will require future operators to be equipped of legal, moral, and ethical considerations. In this with the necessary skills and knowledge to function regard, a 2014 report from the North Atlantic Treaty in the context of enablers such as swarm agents, Organisation (NATO) Allied Command Transformation remote presence and predictive analytics. In order recommended policymakers to consider formalising to operate more efficiently, these same operators the mode of command relationships and decision- may even need to carry out complex technical work making between humans and autonomous systems in on autonomous systems instead of relying on defence different operating environments.15 One such example contractors. To sustain doctrine development for is the US Department of Defence Directive 3000.09, the operational deployment of autonomous systems which provides policy guidance that ‘autonomous and across multiple domains, there may even be scope semi-autonomous weapon systems shall be designed for the RSAF to recruit and train its own experts in to allow commanders and operators to exercise robotics and artificial intelligence. From pilots to appropriate levels of human judgement over the controllers and technicians to administrators, the use of force,’ and that ‘[the use] of autonomous and RSAF will need to consider how an autonomous work semi-autonomous weapon systems must do so with environment will disrupt peoples’ attitudes towards appropriate care and in accordance with the law of professional work and career progression. Therefore, war, applicable treaties, weapon system safety rules, successful integration of autonomous systems not only and applicable rules of engagement.’16 However, P. requires significant investment into sound capability W. Singer observed that when ‘[US] military officers were questioned about robots’ future in war, they development roadmaps, but also concrete plans to identified developing a strategy and doctrine as attract, train, and sustain more technical workforce the third least important aspect to figure out,’ and to prepare for the proliferation of manned-unmanned suggested that actual doctrine development behind operating paradigms. the use of autonomous systems remained under- CONCLUSION prioritised despite policy emphasis for greater attention.17 For the RSAF, this observation highlights With the rapid advancement of technologies and the importance of considering force integration techniques that enable greater levels of autonomy, and doctrine development of autonomous systems militaries are confronted with the question of as concurrent lines of effort, and to avoid treating how best to apply them into existing models of the latter as a more ad hoc adaptation of existing administration, logistics, and warfighting. At the doctrine. same time, the tremendous potential of autonomy is

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 22 counterbalanced by the multitude of risks that must be Thomas B. Sheridan and William L. Verplank, “Human managed. For the RSAF, leveraging greater levels of and Computer Control of Undersea Teleoperators”, MIT Man-Machine Systems Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, Tech. autonomy therefore requires a strategy that considers Rep., 1978. each aspect of autonomy—head, heart and hands—as interdependent functions that share an overlapping 8. Raja Parasuraman, Thomas B. Sheridan and Christopher D. Wickens, “A Model for the Types and Levels of Human complex of opportunities and challenges. Stepping Interaction with Automation”, IEEE Transactions on outside the comfort zone is never easy, and such is Systems, Man, and Cybernetics – Part A: Systems and the game of chasing the next frontier. Humans, Vol. 30, No.3, May 2000.

9. Luca Save and Beatrice Feuerberg, “Designing Human- Automation Interaction: A New Level of Automation ENDNOTES Taxonomy “, in Human Factors: A View from Integrative 1. MINDEF, “Keynote Address by Permanent Secretary Perspective. Proc. HFES Europe Chapter Conference, (Defence Development), Mr Ng Chee Khern, at the Toulouse, 2012, p.43-55.

International Naval Engineering Conference (INEC) 10. Ibid., p.44. 2017”, Official Release, 17 May 2017. 11. Sheridan and Verplank, op. cit., p.288. 2. National Research Council, Division on Engineering and 12. Huang Hui-Min, Kerry Pavek, James Albus and Elena Physical Sciences, Naval Studies Board, Committee on Messina, “Autonomy levels for unmanned systems Autonomous Vehicles in Support of Naval Operations, (ALFUS) framework. Volume II: Framework Models, Autonomous Vehicles in Support of Naval Operations, Version 1.0”, NIST Special Publication 1011-II-1.0, (Washington D.C.: National Academies Press), 2005, December 2007. p.45-46. 13. Farid Kendoul, “Towards a Unified Framework for UAS 3. Kyriakos G. Vamvoudakis, Warren E. Dixon, and Autonomy and Technology Readiness Assessment Hamidreza Modares, “Autonomy and Machine (ATRA)”, Autonomous Control System and Vehicles: Intelligence in Complex Systems: A Tutorial”, American Intelligent Unmanned Systems, (Tokyo: Springer Japan), Control Conference, 2015. 2013, p.55-73.

4. Spyros G. Tzafestas, Advances in Intelligence Autonomous 14. Air Force Photos, U.S. Air Force, http://www.af.mil/ System, Volume 18 of Intelligence System, Control and News/Photos.aspx?igphoto=2000398487 Automation: Science and Engineering, (Dordrecht: 15. Artur Kuptel and Andy Williams, “Policy Guidance: Springer Science & Business Media), 2012, p.3-4. Autonomy in Defence Systems”, Multinational Capability 5. Jenay M. Beer, Arthur D. Fisk, and Wendy A. Rogers, Development Campaign 2013-14, October 29, 2014, p. “Toward a Framework for Levels of Robot Autonomy 8-9. in Human-Robot Interaction”, Journal of Human-Robot 16. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, “Department of Interaction, Vol. 3, No.2 (2014), p.77. Defense Directive (DoDD) 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon 6. Ibid. Systems”, (Washington, DC: Department of Defense), 21 November 2012, p. 2-3. 7. Society of Automotive Engineers International, “Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving 17. Peter W. Singer, “Wired for War: Robots and Military Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles”, Sep Doctrine”, Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 52 (Washington, 2016. http://standards.sae.org/j3016_201609/ DC: National Defence University Press), 2009, p105.

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ME6 Tan Kwang Liang graduated from the Naval Postgraduate School with a Masters of Science in Aeronautical Engineering and the Australian Command and Staff College with a Graduate Diploma of Management in Defence Studies. ME6 Tan is an Air Force Engineer by vocation and is currently the Commander of 5 Air Engineering and Logistics Group (AELG) in Air Power Generation Command.

CPT Lim Guang He is currently a Strategy Officer in the RSAF Office of Strategy (ROS), APD. He holds a Master of Engineering from the French Air Force Academy and a Masters of Science and Technology from the University of Aix-Marseille.

ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen is an Air Force Engineer by vocation and is currently serving as the OC of Heron 1 IMF in 801 SQN. A recipient of the SAF Merit Scholarship in 2009, he graduated from Imperial College London with a Masters of Engineering (Aeronautical Engineering).

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 24 THE INTERNET OF THINGS: APPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES FOR THE RSAF

by ME6(DR) Reuben Lim Chi Keong, MAJ Pek Wee Kian & ME5 David Bey

Abstract:

The Internet-of-Things (IoT) is poised to be one of the major disruptors in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). What is this IoT? Is it just about wearable smartwatches, or does it hold more potential? More importantly, how can it be applied in a military context to the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF), enabling a shift in non real-time, human-centric operations, to real-time, machine-centric operations? This essay explores how IoT will quicken and broaden the traditional Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop, and investigates how IoT can be applied to improve operations in a ‘smart airbase’. Given that IoT holds much potential, users should also be aware of the implementation risks. In this, the RSAF has extensive experience with some of the challenges, having implemented complex System-of-Systems such as the Integrated Air Defence System-of- Systems (IADSoS). Organisational culture and work processes are also examined as part of an overall mindset shift that must be undertaken to fully realise the potential of IoT.

Keywords: Adapt; Major disruptors; Enabling a shift; Quicken and broaden; Implementation risks; Overall mindset shift

INTRODUCTION swiftly to it.3 IoT also has the potential to improve standards of living, in countries that implement Technology and its uses have driven each ‘Smart Infrastructure’—some estimates show that IoT industrial revolution and have disrupted the way will add US$10-15 trillion to global Gross Domestic societies lived, worked and even fought. The world Product in the next 20 years.4 Singapore, too, ‘strives is now at the cusp of 4IR, where the IoT is poised to to become a Smart Nation to support better living, be one of the major disruptors.1 IoT is a term coined stronger communities, and create more opportunities for sensors and actuators embedded in physical for all.’5 Besides improving the quality of life, IoT objects and linked through networks, churning huge has the potential to disrupt the way warfare is data volumes that flow to computers for analysis, waged, similar in ways network-centric capabilities often without human intervention. The ubiquitous had revolutionised warfare.6 As militaries face tight nature of IoT ranges from personal wearable devices budgetary pressures amidst increasing demands to to ‘smart’ cities and will connect an estimated 50 meet the new global threat environment, IoT holds billion devices by 2020.2 This constant sensing and much potential to provide higher effectiveness and communicating of the environment become tools efficiency. Yet, the opportunities also come with for understanding the complexity and responding challenges, especially as cyberspace has become

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 25 the new dimension of warfare.7 In navigating the technologies.’8 Simply put, IoT enables physical IoT wave, it can be useful to remember some of objects to see, hear, think and perform jobs through the fundamentals in which the concepts and the sharing of information and co-ordinated technologies of IoT are rooted in. The roles of decisions.9 Singapore’s Smart Nation project aptly different enabling technologies of IoT, and how they sums it as ‘Connect, Collect & Comprehend,’ as depicted will work together to transform the OODA loop, is in Figure 1.10 next examined. The exploitation of IoT in future airpower is then explored through opportunities Technology and its uses have driven each presented for a ‘smart’ airbase where IoT can be industrial revolution and have disrupted implemented. At the same time, such capabilities would entail greater challenges to realise the inherent the way societies lived, worked and even risks to operate. On this aspect, a System-of- fought. System perspective is leveraged upon to look at the For an understanding of IoT however, it is useful to complexity involved and to identify key challenges. recognise the change it brings from the Internet Age. FROM INTERNET TO THE INTERNET-OF-THINGS The Internet and mobile services of the 3rd IR allowed

The United Nations agency, International people to create, share and use information freely. This Telecommunication Union (ITU), defi nes IoT revolutionised communications between people to be as ‘an infrastructure that enables services by ‘anytime’ and ‘anywhere’. Notably, the communication, interconnecting both physical and virtual objects aggregation and interpretation of information were based on information and communication executed by humans and in a non real-time manner.

Figure 1: Singapore’s Smart Nation Programme.11

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The revolutionary nature of IoT is that it brings the higher interoperability.14 The observable space is thus creation, sharing and use of information beyond much bigger and has gone beyond the traditional people to physical or virtual devices. This extends physical operational environment into the cyber the dimensions of communication from ‘anytime’ and domain as well. A standardised network protocol, ‘anywhere’ to ‘anything.’12 This extension to ‘anything’ such as Heterogeneous Network (HetNet) in the is enabled by fi ve key technological developments Info-communications Media 2025 vision will also that evolved from the 3rd IR, namely: (1) declining reduce the diffi culties of integrating new sensors or cost and size of sensors; (2) increasing bandwidth of information sources.15 This will allow capabilities to networks; (3) standardisation of network protocols be developed more quickly as smaller applications and data structure; and improvements in (4) can be built and fl exibly plugged-and-played onto the augmented/artifi cial intelligence; such as big data standard network protocol as required.16 An IoT system analytics; and (5) augmented behavior/actors; such can thus be reconfi gured to accommodate different as robotics. When viewed from the military lens of missions, most of which cannot yet be defi ned during the classic Observe-Orientate-Decide-Act (OODA) the initial design of the systems in the fi rst place.17 Loop, these technologies have collectively enhanced Faster Orientation and Decision the OODA loop in the following ways, as depicted in Figure 2.13 With expanding information networks and sensors, the sheer amount of data generated has gone far beyond Wider and More Flexible Observations any human’s ability to sense-make. The orientation The declining cost and size of sensors have of a large number of variables present in these big allowed them to be embedded into mobile products datasets is only possible through computational tools. through which they can sense and create data. With advances in machine learning, the capabilities The increasing bandwidth of networks, especially of such tools have gone beyond basic descriptive the internet, has improved connectivity which analytics, which informs what has happened, to has then allowed this increased volume of data to predictive and prescriptive analytics, which reveals be transmitted and shared. The wide adoption of patterns and insights within the data and tells us standardised network protocols and data structure what is going to happen next.18 Critically, this allows has meant that datasets from different sources and us to go beyond information superiority today, to networks can be aggregated more easily and with superior decision-making tomorrow, as actions are

Figure 2: Difference between Internet and Internet-of-Things

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 27 guided by decision-support systems. When combined this is set to be reduced in the future. Developments with artifi cial intelligence, the information derived in edge and fog computing will allow devices to be from data analytics can be fused with pre-programmed less dependent on the network for communication guidance to make decisions on their own.19 In the and still be able to perform their tasks autonomously near future, autonomous decision-making will still by collaborating amongst themselves locally.22 This be context-specifi c with human intervention needed has crucial application in situations where reaction to understand the broader context. Further advances time is critical, or where communication links with however, will allow computers to mimic human human controllers are fragile.23 intuition and judgment, leading to a new generation of decision aids.20 The enhancement of the OODA loop Responsive and Reliable Actions would bring airpower further, not just

With embedded sensors and wide network for greater battlespace awareness, but connectivity, devices can interact amongst have tangible effects in other key areas themselves autonomously without human control. as well. The use of automation is not new, particularly in the manufacturing industry, where simple and predictable Besides enhancing the OODA loop, the fi ve tasks are performed. With improving augmented technological enablers also form the architecture intelligence, IoT-based automation will see much layers of an IoT System—the end-user sensor and wider applications from physical work processes to autonomous device layer which connects to the include management functions. Energy conservation physical world, the network layer that transmits and facility security management are some examples the data, the management layer that aggregates of this. Notably, these are able to pervasively monitor and stores the data and the application layer that their surroundings and responsively adapt to changing processes the data with augmented intelligence. This conditions or respond to human preferences.21 Human gives rise to the fundamental characteristics of an execution is currently still required in fi eld environments IoT system which are connectivity, heterogeneity, that are complex and lack infrastructural support, but dynamic change and enormous scale.24 Hence, an

Figure 3: Diagram of OODA Loop.28

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IoT system is not a static and monolithic platform campaign are now faced with a deluge of information but a dynamic System-of-Systems (SoS) instead and from different sources that changes dynamically with consists of independent constituents that perform unfolding situations. Such information needs to be different functions but are integrated together to integrated in a coherent and timely manner for them provide a capability that its individual constituent to effectively co-ordinate the responses accordingly. cannot.25 The constituents have independent The IoT-enabled capabilities of the future would functions that are operated, managed by different thus be a huge dynamic SoS with different military 26 stakeholders and can evolve independently. An IoT functions as its constituents. These functions are SoS would be heterogeneous as data from different networked together with augmented intelligence types of embedded sensors can be fused together to to enhance their OODA loop. Without data analytics 27 provide specific services and applications. The state and artificial intelligence, commanders would be of the system is dynamic and can change according bogged down in interpreting voluminous data to the nature of their employment. Most notably, instead of focusing on strategising and orchestrating the emergent behavior that IoT exhibits from the operations. To this end, the United States Air Force interactions between its constituents gives it new (USAF) has begun development of a platform named capabilities, but at the same time can bring about ARMADA, to help commanders sieve out insights and unintended consequences. make better decisions through data analytics.31 OPPORTUNITIES OF AIRPOWER ENABLED BY IOT The enhancement of the OODA loop would bring airpower further, not just for greater battlespace The IoT technologies and SoS architectures can be awareness, but have tangible effects in other key traced to pioneering efforts of the United States (US) areas as well. The airbase is a critical infrastructure Department of Defense in their use of sensors and from which aircraft launch and recover, re-arm and networking technology for Network Centric Warfare refuel and without which, airpower could not be (NCW). Arguably, the first use of IoT is in NCW which generated or sustained.32 In fulfilling these functions, sought to integrate the physical, information and a military airbase behaves like a small city with its cognitive domains. It has revolutionised warfare by own ecosystem. It constitutes different elements enabling more robust and responsive battlespace such as maintenance, air traffic control, runway capabilities.29 Singapore’s Island Air Defence is an embodiment of this, as sensors, weapons and Command repair, medical, ground logistics and transportation and Control (C2) systems are integrated together into network. As an airbase is a key military target a SoS. The networking of systems prevents single during a war, there is also a need for capabilities point failures, thereby enhancing survivability and to protect its facilities and restore its operability reduces the sensor-to-shooter cycle for greater strike after an attack. All these elements have to work in effectiveness.30 At the heart of such capabilities, harmony and responsively adapt to changes such that commanders have to be able to make sense of the airpower generation is not disrupted. To this end, information available and make timely decisions to the implementation of IoT in a ‘smart airbase’ can be effective. With wider battlespace awareness, have revolutionary changes in the following Airpower commanders across the different levels of a military Generation (APG) functions.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 29 Efforts to employ IoT technologies in situational awareness and tight co-ordination. For functions such as the ‘smart’ airbase would this reason, air traffic controllers employ safety be hampered if militaries are unable to separation of aircraft so that adequate focus is placed to de-conflict aircraft in both time and space, in the adapt their processes and organisational air and on the ground. With more remote-sensing structures to accommodate the new capabilities fused with augmented intelligence, technologies. aircraft locations can be monitored with higher accuracy with optimised aircraft management plans Aircraft Generation being generated autonomously and dynamically. Aircraft generation capabilities are crucial, The IoT network can be leveraged to disseminate especially for small Air Forces with limited assets. instructions and orchestrate operations seamlessly, To maximise airpower given the small fleet size, with a common situational picture.35 Such management the aircraft has to reduce maintenance downtime and decision tools alleviate the workload of air and turn-around sorties faster than potential traffic controllers while providing a more efficient adversaries to deliver effects usually equated with launch-and-recover cycle. The response to emergency 33 larger Air Forces. For aircraft generation, IoT will situations would also be more robust and responsive enable a shift in aircraft maintenance from being as pre-planned instructions to divert aircraft or alert reactive, such as executing corrective or scheduled emergency teams can be done autonomously without preventive maintenance, to proactive on-condition human intervention. fault prevention. The aircraft’s unscheduled aircraft unavailability, which is disruptive to flying Airfield Damage Recovery operations, can thus be minimised. IoT-enabled In the event of an attack, the airbase’s operability real-time performance visibility of equipment also must quickly be recovered to enable aircraft to be optimises the entire value chain by saving money launched. The rapid damage assessment of facilities and creating new revenue streams. A glimpse of such as runways is however risky as the assessors IoT for on-condition fault prevention capability can may need to perform their role while being exposed be seen in the Autonomic Logistics Information to enemy fire.36 By embedding sensors in the runway System (ALIS) of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. ALIS and utilising robotics such as drones, the damage to uses sensors embedded throughout the aircraft to the runway can be rapidly assessed after an attack diagnose performance and sophisticated analytics without risks to humans. Coupled with intelligent to proactively diagnose, or ‘prognosis’, maintenance three-dimensional maps of the airbase that include needs ahead of functional failures. Beyond having sub-surface features such as piping and wiring, sensors monitor the aircraft, the management layer of ALIS aggregates both maintenance and supply intelligent decision support systems can recommend chain data to trend defects and pre-orders parts for a alternatives and even prescribe the optimal repair tighter repair cycle.34 plans to minimise the downtime. Besides wartime recovery, the use of embedded sensors for condition Launch and Recovery monitoring of runway assets such as Navigational Aids The launch and recovery of aircraft is a critical and lighting can improve reliability while reducing safety and complex operation that requires extensive maintenance effort.

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Airbase Protection adoption of new IoT technologies.39 Such risks and challenges are not entirely new as they are similar to IoT systems have probably the greatest operational those faced by SoS capabilities. The relevant lessons payoff when applied to airbase protection. By learned from developing and operating NCW SoS equipping the entire airbase fence line with a suite of capabilities could thus be adapted to guide the IoT sensors and fusing them together, a comprehensive SoS journey. intruder detection system can be created.37 Smart algorithms can then evaluate the threats, recommend Cyber Security responses and assign remote-controlled weapons and Given the highly networked nature of SoS, cyber unmanned ground vehicles to ‘multiply’ combat power. security is a key challenge. This is even more so for Besides intrusion, surveillance AI is also evolving to IoT where connectivity is expanded across networks enable autonomous cognition of suspicious or hostile and devices. The ubiquitous and highly connected 38 behaviors within a crowd. When implemented, IoT nature of IoT offers multiple potential vulnerabilities systems will signifi cantly aid decision-making and for cyber attackers. The myriad of functions such as potentially reduce the time required to respond to the database and processing functions allow multiple airbase threats. points of entry points and nodes for exploitation.40 A compromise on a military IoT can potentially provide SYSTEMS-OF-SYSTEM CHALLENGES IN IOT the enemy with strategic intelligence, or information IoT technologies, such as the ‘smart’ airbase could be manipulated for military deception. Just described, have the potential to enable the military as IoT can be a force multiplier, it can also pose as to achieve signifi cant cost savings, improve safety a threat multiplier as augmented intelligence and and achieve better performance. There are, however, autonomous equipment also allow disruption beyond associated technical risks to security, safety and the cyber to the cognitive and physical domain.41 Due interoperability. Besides these, there are also to the wide and dynamic state of an IoT SoS, securing organisational and cultural challenges towards the individual devices and applications would be diffi cult

Figure 4: The Defence Cluster that the Defence Cyber Organisation leads and drives Cyber Security.42

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 31 and impractical. As such, there is a need to focus on requirements, development and testing before field new techniques that provide security overlays at the use takes too long and is impractical given the network layer and between networks.43 In addition, dynamic state of an IoT SoS. Therefore, a top-down cyber security measures to safeguard IoT systems integration approach leveraging common standards should not introduce cumbersome authentication, add and protocols needs to be adopted.47 Utilising a latency or excessively compartmentalise the system common standard offers the flexibility to reconfigure as these degrade the desirable traits of connectivity IoT devices on a common network but could mean and flexibility of the SoS. In the light of the increased a trade-off for the stability of individual systems, risk of cyber threats, MINDEF has established the especially for legacy systems which will need to be Defence Cyber Organisation on Mar 17 to secure the modified to be part of the IoT. There is a need to entire Defence Cluster, including our defence industry balance between rigorous testing and managing the partners and MINDEF-Related Organisations against risks of fielding unproven equipment. As such, an IoT cyber attacks. SoS could see capabilities being experimented in the field before being thoroughly tested in the lab but Performance and Safety Assurance this can be done incrementally to limit effects of An IoT SoS such as the ‘smart’ airbase would unintended consequences.48 consist of different networked systems, each with its Organisational and Cultural Barriers own set of heterogeneous capabilities and functions. As the number of connected systems increases, their IoT technologies can be fundamentally disruptive. interactions become more complex and the behaviour Efforts to employ IoT technologies in functions such of the system becomes more unpredictable. Moreover, as the ‘smart’ airbase would be hampered if militaries the constituent IoT systems may not be acquired and are unable to adapt their processes and organisational developed together with SoS connectivity in mind.44 structures to accommodate the new technologies. This Incompatibilities between systems can, therefore, is particularly true for military organisations where have a serious impact on errors, latently propagate there is often heavy reliance on human-in-the-loop at throughout the network and result in flawed various levels. Singapore’s Smart Nation Programme decision-aids or inaccurate autonomous actions. recognises this and has identified five key factors for The aforementioned ALIS of the F-35 uncovered a successful smart city transformation: (1) Dynamic such interoperability issues between its hardware Governance; (2) Technology; (3) Trained Manpower; and software. In a reported case, while the sensors (4) Partnerships; and (5) People Engagement, in which correctly detected a minor fault in the landing gear, this essay has covered the component of technology the augmented intelligence could not discern its extensively.49 In dynamic governance, there is a need importance and this led to the unintended consequence to ‘remain relevant and effective by continuing to of the entire fleet being grounded.45 Maintainers were innovate and adapt to emerging needs in a changing unable to override the system due to the complexity environment.’50 This includes thinking ahead to remain arising from the closely integrated logistics and relevant, thinking again to improve current policies supply networks.46 Traditionally, comprehensive and thinking across to learn across boundaries. The testing is performed to assure interoperability and lack of buy-in by the leadership or rigid policies, that the desired performance and safety requirements may restrict the potential of technologies such as are met. However, the typical approach of defining autonomous decision-making technologies.51 For

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 32 example, finance policies commonly mandate for and follow-through by commanders to convince end- human-in-the-loop to inspect all paperwork before an users of its viability. acquisition is approved even if the process has been CONCLUSION automated for accountability purposes. In efforts to change this, many organisations such as Tan Tock Seng Despite the challenges in adoption, IoT holds Hospital, are holding ‘hackathons’ to get their middle much potential to revolutionise airpower. The value and upper management to recognise the potential proposition of the enhanced OODA goes beyond of IoT and adapt policy changes.52 In training and the battlespace and into capabilities for airpower partnerships, to harness the full potential of IoT, generation as illustrated by the example of the individuals must look beyond their platform-centric ‘smart' airbase. IoT enables wider and more flexible functional roles and become collaborators across observation, facilitates more complex analysis and different functions. An individual will need to enables faster responses with a reduced human error. understand how the entire IoT SoS functions at the Automation will help reduce personnel cost amidst aggregated level to fully exploit its strengths and tightening budget and manpower constraints to mitigate its weaknesses during operations.53 deliver more capability per dollar to the military. For this to be realised, the IoT technologies must As there will be a heavy adoption of commercial be adopted correctly with clear objectives of the technologies, close collaboration with the private desired capabilities, risk appetite and commitment sector will also be required to innovate and of resources to build the supporting infrastructure. operationalise IoT technologies. To facilitate a As it will take considerable time to adopt IoT across more seamless introduction and proliferation of IoT the various military functions, existing technologies enabling technologies into the military, corporations and work processes from successful adoption in the are increasingly embedding IT teams within their commercial sector should leverage to accelerate Research and Development (R&D) functions, or entirely the learning curve. For the RSAF to harness the merging both functions altogether.54 Having the IT potential of IoT for mission success, a relook into our functions involved in the capability development organisational culture and work processes is required. process would also promote a clear and coherent integration of IoT technologies. Finally, in people engagement, the different stakeholders managing ENDNOTES the individual constituent systems may have vested 1. Eide, E. B., Anja, K., & Philip , S.-J. (2016, Nov 3). 10 interest in their own functions that do not align with trends for the future of warfare. the overall function at the SoS level. There could also 2. Lopez Research. (2013). An Introduction to the Internet be resistance to change by the soldiers on the ground of Things, Part 1 The IoT Series. Lopez Research. as the new processes introduced by IoT technologies 3. McKinsey. (2015). The Internet of Things: Mapping the move them out of their comfort zones. These barriers value beyond the hype. McKinsey Institute. can result in the imposition of administrative and 4. Gasiorowski-Denis, E. (2016, September 5). How the bureaucratic hurdles, running counter to the need Internet of Things will change our lives. for quick acquisition and experimentation for IoT. 5. SNDGO. (2017, March 20). Formation of The Smart Nation These shifts in the mindset to embrace these new and Digital Government Group in the Prime Minister’s capabilities would require strategic communications Office.

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6. Tan, Y., Yeoh, L. W., Pang, C. K., & Sim, K. W. (2006). 26. Ibid. Systems Architecting for 3G SAF Transformation. DSTA 27. DuBravac, S., & Ratti, C. (2015). The Internet of Things: Horizons. Evolution or Revolution? AIG. 7. Gray, C. S. (2012). Airpower for Strategic Effect. Alabama: 28. OODA loop (2018), Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/ Air University Press. wiki/OODA_loop 8. ITU-T. (2012). Overview of the Internet of Things. 29. Zheng, D. E., & Carter, W. A. (2015). Leveraging the International Telecommunication Union. Interent of Things for a More Efficient Military. CSIS.

9. DuBravac, S., & Ratti, C. (2015). The Internet of Things: 30. MINDEF. (2017). Engineering Systems of System 50. Evolution or Revolution? AIG. MINDEF.

10. IDA. (2014). Smart Nation Platform. IDA. 31. Mohana Ravindranath (2016) , Air Force Want Help 11. Ibid. Finding ‘Golden Nuggets’ in Data http://www.nextgov. com/big-data/2016/11/air-force-wants-help-finding- 12. Holdowsky, J., Mahto, M., Raynor, M. E., & Cotteleer, golden-nuggets-data/132978/ M. (2015). Inside the Internet of Things: A primer on the technologies building IoT. Deloitte. 32. Maran, M., & Ong, S. (2009). Generating Air Power. Pointer. 13. Osinga, F. (2005). Science, Strategy and War, The Strategic Theory of John Boyd. Eburon Academic. 33. Ibid.

14. Holdowsky, J., Mahto, M., Raynor, M. E., & Cotteleer, 34. Mariani, J., Williams , B., & Loubert , B. (2015). M. (2015). Inside the Internet of Things: A primer on the Continuing the march The past, present, and future of the technologies building IoT. Deloitte. IoT in the military. Deloittes.

15 . IMDA. (2017). Infocomm Media 2025. IMDA. 35. Edson, B. (2016, Mar 17). Azure IoT Technology helps NAV CANADA revolutionize air-traffic control. 16 . Lukkien, J. (2016). A Systems of System perspective on the Internet o Things. SIGBED Review, 56-62. 36. Maran, M., & Ong, S. (2009). Generating Air Power. Pointer. 17. Soules, S., & Wenzel, G. (2017). Information Warfare 37 . Zheng, D. E., & Carter, W. A. (2015). Leveraging the Evolves with the Times. Booz Allen Hamilton Interent of Things for a More Efficient Military. CSIS. 18. Holdowsky, J., Mahto, M., Raynor, M. E., & Cotteleer, 38. Zamir, A. R., & Dehghan, A. (n.d.). Automatic Detection M. (2015). Inside the Internet of Things: A primer on the and Tracking of Pedestrians in Videos with Various Crowd technologies building IoT. Deloitte. Densities. 19. Mariani, J., Williams , B., & Loubert , B. (2015). 39. Zheng, D. E., & Carter, W. A. (2015). Leveraging the Continuing the march The past, present, and future of Interent of Things for a More Efficient Military. CSIS. the IoT in the military. Deloittes. 40. Holdowsky, J., Mahto, M., Raynor, M. E., & Cotteleer, 20. Work, R. O., & Brimley, S. (2016). 20YY Preparing for War M. (2015A). Inside the Internet of Things: primer on the in the Robotic Age. CNAS. technologies building IoT. Deloitte. 21. Lopez Research. (2013). An Introduction to the Internet 41. Zheng, D. E., & Carter, W. A. (2015). Leveraging the of Things, Part 1 The IoT Series. Lopez Research. Interent of Things for a More Efficient Military. CSIS. 22. Reale, A. (2017). A guide to Edge IoT Analytics. IBM . 42. MINDEF. (2017). Defence Cyber Organisation. https:// 23. Work, R. O., & Brimley, S. (2016). 20YY Preparing for War www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/mindef/about-us/ in the Robotic Age. CNAS. organisation/organisation-profile/defence-cyber- organisation 24. ITU-T. (2012). Overview of the Internet of Things. International Telecommunication Union. 43. Ibid.

25. Maier, M. W. (1998). Architecting principles for system 44. Dahman, J., & Rebovich, G. (2009). Systems of System of systems. Systems Engineering, 267-284. and Net-Centric Enterprise Systems. CSER.

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45. Mariani, J., Williams , B., & Loubert , B. (2015). 50. Ibid. Continuing the march The past, present, and future of the 51. Zheng, D. E., & Carter, W. A. (2015). Leveraging the IoT in the military. Deloittes. Interent of Things for a More Effi cient Military. CSIS. 46. Ibid. 52. Tan Tock Seng Hospital. (2017, February 24-25). Tan 47. Madni, A. M., & Sievers, M. (2014). System of Systems Tock Seng Hospital Makeathon. Retrieved June 12, 2017 Integration: Key Considerations and Challenges. 53. Madni, A. M., & Sievers, M. (2014). System of Systems Systems Engineering, 17(3), 330-347. Integration: Key Considerations and Challenges. 48. Dahman, J., & Rebovich, G. (2009). Systems of System Systems Engineering, 17(3), 330-347. and Net-Centric Enterprise Systems. CSER. 54. Porter, M. E., & Heppelmann, J. E. (2015, October 49. Foo, S., & Pan, G. (2016). Singapore's Vision of a Smart 1). How Smart Connected Products are Transforming Nation. Asian Management Insights, 3((1)), 76-82. Companies. Retrieved August 12, 2017

ME6(DR) Reuben Lim Chi Keong is currently CO 816 Sqn in 6 AELG, Air Power Generation Command. He was formerly Head Aerosystems Centre and Head Structures Branch in Air Engineering Logistics Department. ME6(DR) Lim holds a Bachelors of Engineering and a Masters of Science in Engineering from the National University of Singapore (NUS), and a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) from Cranfi eld University. He is also a Chartered Engineer registered with the Engineering Council, United Kingdom (UK).

MAJ Pek Wee Kian is currently an OC in 129 SQN, Imagery Exploitation Group, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Command. He graduated from Durham University, UK with a Masters in Chemistry. MAJ Pek is an AWO(GBAD)/ IO(Air-Int) Offi cer by vocation.

ME5 David Bey is an Air Force Engineer by vocation and is currently the Senior Strategy Offi cer in the ROS, APD. ME5 Bey holds a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering from the NUS, as well as a Masters of Science in Defence Technology and Systems from NUS and a Masters of Science in Systems Engineering from Cranfi eld University, both obtained under the SAF Postgraduate Award. ME5 Bey's previous appointments include OC, Logistics Flight, 143 SQN, and Staff Offi cer, F-16 Section, Air Engineering and Logistics Department.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 35 THE EMERGENCE OF SMALL UNMANNED AERIAL SYSTEMS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

by LTC Ho Sen Kiat, MAJ Lee Mei Yi & CPT Sim Bao Chen

Abstract:

The exponential proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) is a global phenomenon, particularly with small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) made popular by the fast expanding quad-copter developments. Today, DJI-style drones are redefining industries with smaller, affordable but yet more capable and miniaturised payloads. Advancements in sUAS development will provide opportunities for the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to rethink the way we do our business. This essay suggests that the sUAS can play a much greater role in both peacetime military operations and future battlefields, enabling mission accomplishment with safer, faster and greater efficiency. Conversely, the threat of sUAS poses a significant challenge to our peace and security. The low cost and simple-to-use nature of sUAS also allows easy exploitation by terrorists and individuals with malicious intent. This essay further suggests several steps the SAF must take in order to develop and field sUAS innovations. At the same time, the SAF needs to develop capabilities and measures to defend against sUAS threats, from peace to war.

Keywords: Global phenomenon; Provide Opportunities; Significant challenge; Develop and field; Measures to defend

EMERGENCE OF sUAS The two most common types of sUAS are quad- copters and fixed-wing sUAS. A popular example of The UAV industry is highly dynamic and constantly these is the Phantom 4 Pro quad-copter made by evolving with the advancement of science and the Chinese company DJI. Its titanium alloy and technological enablement. In the past, UAVs were magnesium alloy construction increase the rigidity of conventionally bulky and originated mostly in military the airframe and reduces its weight. The drone can applications. Technological developments have seen fly up to 72 km/h and can operate for an extended these vehicles grow to be produced in different sizes, time of 30 minutes. It has a ground remote controller weights and capable of holding different payloads with a built-in screen that allows editing and sharing and sensors, making them useful for both commercial instantly. By programming the flight altitude and and government applications. With accelerating waypoints, the drone can take-off, land, make technologies and surge in commercial use, the recordings and return automatically.2 Most drones are employment of UAVs has increasingly shifted towards equipped with basic cameras. Recent advancements in sUAS, with emphasis on smaller, affordable but yet technology include improvements in communications more capable and miniaturised drones and payloads.1 equipment and payload such as forward looking

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 36 infrared (FLIR) aerial thermal imaging camera to guidance accuracy) and artifi cial intelligence, more enable night vision and heat sensing, cryptography to autonomy is expected with regards to determining ensure security of sensed data, lightweight materials sUAS fl ight routes, adapting to changing weather to allow higher speeds and endurance of up to 90 conditions, sense and avoid systems for performing km/h for 45 minutes on a single charge and more evasive manoeuvres and defensive reactions when versatile fl ight performance with Vertical Take-Off under attack. Thirdly, the increasing autonomy will (VTOL) capability and software to allow the drone enable fusing of many sUAS into a swarm where it to avoid collisions real time, even amongst dense will co-operate as a network, self-reconfi gure, sense obstacles or trees.3 and change behaviour independently to complete the

Most non-military applications of sUAS revolve mission. An aircraft, manned or unmanned, can be around reconnaissance surveys of areas, key events and brought down by a single missile, but a swarm of sUAS celebrations, given that they are cheaper than aerial can take multiple hits and keep going. This will be the surveillance from manned aircraft. It encompasses game changer in the future battlefi eld. aerial photography, land surveying and mapping, monitoring and inspections of infrastructure, heavy equipment, wildlife and agriculture. There is also a rising trend where retail and shipping companies, such as Amazon and DHL, have turned to sUAS for faster and more effi cient delivery method.4 At the government front, sUAS provide useful intelligence about particular situations or crises. Information collected through the sensors is immediately piped to ground stations for improved situational awareness. Figure 1: Amazon made its fi rst delivery by drone on 7th December, 2016.7 Locally, the Singapore Police Force (SPF) uses sUAS mounted with sirens and high-defi nition wide-angle Advancements in sUAS development will provide cameras to deter rioters and monitor the ground opportunities for the SAF to rethink the way we do 5 situation. Similarly, the Singapore Civil Defence our business. The sUAS can play a much greater role Force (SCDF) uses sUAS to assess large-scale fi res for in both peacetime military operations and future 6 more effi cient fi re-fi ghting. battlefi elds, enabling mission accomplishment with safer, faster and greater effi ciency. However, As technology advances, the sUAS will increase in the rapid development and employment of sUAS lethality. We can expect to see more developments in in both the commercial and government spheres, sUA S t e chno l o g y in ar ea s of minia t ur is a t ion, au t onomy and swarms.8 Firstly, with advances in material coupled with the surge in recreation demand, is not science, especially considering adaptive/3D printing without a concern. While there are opportunities techniques and carbon nanotubes, each generation of to fi eld sUAS, the reverse is true. The low cost and sUASs will become smaller, faster and lighter, and will simple-to-use nature of sUAS also allows easy loiter longer and carry heavier payloads. Secondly, with exploitation by terrorists and individuals with advances in machines (such as command and control malicious intent. Therefore, measures must be taken distances, electro-optical sensor resolution and GPS to defend against them.

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Figure 2: A US Soldier using the RZ-QQB Raven9

OPPORTUNITIES FOR MILITARY are particularly useful for low-altitude Intelligence APPLICATION collection, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) and target acquisition at the squad or platoon-level. The use of UAVs in the military is by no means Also, sUAS’ smaller size and portability have offered a new concept. But, similar to the proliferation of useful applications in urban areas in the US’ post- the Internet, a concept or system originally designed war reconstruction and stabilisation efforts, where for the military has witnessed unprecedented buildings and confi ned spaces have created many technological revolution following its mass market challenges for ground troops. In such battlespaces, production for the civilian consumer base. In current sUAS could provide organic intelligence and call upon operating concepts, armies have historically had precision strike to infl uence the ground battles. greater use for sUAS in the battlespace, while air forces tend to favour larger UAVs. Hence, a conceptual shift Another game changer is the integration of digital is required by the latter, to harness the asymmetric datalink into sUAS. It can support transmission of benefi ts of smaller and cheaper sUAS. video and data, which could maximise the number of systems that could operate concurrently in an area of For armies, sUAS advancements simply allow them operations. While the ground commanders retain the to do their jobs better. Traditionally, armies have fl exibility of having their organic sUAS, they could used UAVs that are portable, cheap, ruggedized and also harness the datalink information from other expendable. They now have longer endurance, better sUAS to enhance their battlespace awareness. These sensors and are data-linked, allowing better command benefi ts could be extended to other Services and to and control and more responsive fi res. Such sUAS the Command Post, if datalink protocols could be used extensively by ground troops include the RQ- standardised across Services and information could 11B Raven, RQ-12A Wasp and RQ-20A Puma.10 These be processed effi ciently.

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The UAV industry is highly dynamic and 2016-2036 envisions that sUAS could conduct ‘beyond line-of-sight tactical ISR and targeting, kinetic constantly evolving with the advancement low-collateral damage engagement of time-sensitive of science and technological enablement. targets, rapid reaction expeditionary persistent ISR, near-real-time networked collaborative information Autonomy is another feature that could and standoff, adverse-weather-capable, multiple- fundamentally change the application of sUAS in the target-track/kill from manned aircraft.’13 Essentially, military. Today, sUAS can already be programmed on unique features of sUAS could augment our existing fixed routes to conduct area survey and information concept of operations. For instance, its portability collection. There are a basic level of autonomy in means that they could be quickly deployed for time- existing sUAS. Jointly developed by DJI and Movidus, sensitive missions. Its datalink and teaming functions the vision-aided flight system in DJI’s Phantom 4 could trigger armed platforms to bring weapons to allows the aircraft to sense and avoid obstacles in real bear. Another burgeoning concept is that of air- 11 time. Military research is underway to develop sUAS launched sUAS (AL-sUAS) that are delivered by a larger 12 that is self-thinking and self-learning. Based on its parent aircraft. The United States Air Force (USAF)’s sensors and processors, the sUAS could make decisions sUAS Flight Plan contends that AL-sUAS could conduct to deviate from its pre-programmed route without off-board sensing missions and tracking of multiple a man-in-the-loop, and to sense and trigger alerts diverging tracks.14 The sUAS would extend the range that warrant the operator's inputs. Whether on a ISR and coverage of parent aircraft. mission or security patrol, such autonomous systems could give the decisive edge on the battlefield and Its low cost and expendability could allow higher reduce the manpower requirements to closely monitor risk missions, such as being expendable jammers and each sUAS on a 24/7 basis. conducting cyber-attacks deep within enemy zone. It could be used to assess battle damage in military bases For air forces, larger UAVs such as MQ-1 Predator to allow expeditious recovery, even under the threat and MQ-9 Reaper have proven their effectiveness in of follow-on fires. It could augment ISR missions of recent conflicts. Demands for ISR and combat air larger UAVs, which could not descend below weather patrol missions by Predator and Reaper have been into the ranges of surface-to-air threats to collect ever increasing. These larger UAVs fill in a niche for time-critical information. Or as the Israelis did the air forces, such as wide area airborne surveillance, against Syrian air defenses in the 1980s, low-cost Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD), Close sUAS could be used as baits, forcing the enemy to Air Support (CAS), counter-air missions and Signals turn on their radars, expose their positions to armed Intelligence (SIGINT). These missions may require fighters and waste missiles on the dispensable sUAS.15 large high-fidelity sensor payloads or high-altitude flight for standoff capability. Until technology Its low cost has also given rise to the ‘swarming’ catches up, they are unlikely to be replaced by sUAS concept, where a large number of sUAS work together in the near term. in a collaborative network. Applications include a swarm attack against a single objective or a large- Nonetheless, current sUAS technology offers area surveillance with overlapping coverage by swarm bountiful opportunities. The USAF’s sUAS Flight Plan bots. In an evolving military context, where the

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 39 less-equipped adversaries have created asymmetric Predator and Reaper fleets to conduct ISR missions, problems for advanced militaries, this would turn the which must be augmented by cheaper sUAS, and the tables on the former as they now have to contend inability to process copious amount of data collected with a large number of low-cost targets. Similarly, efficiently. If situated within the RSAF, the tight it would create significant problems for advanced coupling between the UAV Missions Centre and the rest militaries’ integrated air defence. A swarm of 1,000 of air force operations would ensure better manned- sUAS could comprise decoys, jammers and ISR bots to unmanned integration, aviation safety standards and overwhelm the enemy’s air defence, at a cost cheaper a centralised body for information collection and than one Reaper, or the surface-to-air missiles from processing. advanced air defence systems.16 CHALLENGES FOR THE SAF

We will present two key challenges for the SAF with the proliferation of sUAS—the increased risk of aviation accidents and the asymmetric use of sUAS to challenge our Air Power capabilities in peace and war. For the former, the challenge of maintaining the tight airspace co-ordination and control we had managed to established for manned flights will require us to fundamentally re-think the way we manage manned- Figure 3: A swarm of 103 Perdix drones were released from unmanned traffic to prevent accidents in the air. For three F/A-18 demonstrated sophisticated behaviours, including collective decision making and self-healing. the latter, the low barrier to entry to acquire and hone sUAS capabilities as listed above mean that the sUAS could also be applied to peacetime security SAF must be equally prepared for our aggressors to requirements. With the impetus of manpower savings employ the same tactics against us. Beyond mere and cost cutting, sUAS could replace our soldiers in surveillance, conventional state actors or even non- missions, such as protection of key installations and state actors could improvise and load the drones with surveillance. Equipped with infrared cameras, current insidious payloads like explosives, or even to use the sUAS can provide day-and-night continuous eyes-on drone itself as a kamikaze machine–the capability can surveillance. Improving zoom capability also allows easily be scaled up to devastating levels given the operators to track and capture targets in great detail low cost of each drone. while in a safe and covert stand-off position. Singapore’s airspace is small, yet congested and Such rapid advancements in sUAS technology also complex. Being a hub for international trade, Changi prompts the SAF to consider a highly centralised UAV Airport sees commercial flights entering or leaving, Mission Centre, which will act as a single entity to every one and a half minutes.18 We also require space orchestrate the operations of a massive number of to hold and sequence these flights to space them sUASs, as well as process the large volume of sensor apart adequately for safety. Elsewhere over the island, data coming in through the more capable payloads. our military aircraft, whether fighters, helicopters, Based on its experience of operating UAVs in recent transport aircraft or UAVs, are flying regularly for decades, the USAF has noted a spike in demand on its operations and training, at various heights and along

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 40 different routes. To add to the complexity, there are areas where it is safe and isolated for drone hobbyists. also areas cordoned off from aviation for safety and This can be reinforced technologically—commercial security, such as over the Istana and near the newly drones by more established makers like DJI have deployed Aerostat. We can already gain a glimpse of been equipped with GPS geo-fencing features, which how an unregulated future would look like by turning hard-wires the drone to avoid areas specified in its our gaze overseas, from the increasing numbers of firmware determined by a set of GPS co-ordinates, Facebook and YouTube videos of near misses or even thus ensuring that the drone will only operate within collisions between small drones and airliners. In permitted areas.21 one particularly horrid example, a British Airways airliner with 132 passengers on board collided with Its low cost and expendability could a drone on its approach into Heathrow airport.19 allow higher risk missions, such as being Fortunately, no lives were lost in this incident. Yet, it remains an important reminder to us of the dangers expendable jammers and conducting of unregulated drone flying, particularly in airspace cyber-attacks deep within enemy zone. shared with manned, passenger-carrying aircraft. Beside pilots, the flying platform itself must Reading across what we had established for be properly regulated for airworthiness. Manned manned flying operations, the control of aircraft platforms are subject to stringent standards to ensure movement is tightly managed by central agencies that the aircraft had been properly designed and such as the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore maintained regularly. For instance, each commercial (CAAS) and the RSAF. Access to real-time information aircraft must have a Certificate of Airworthiness from on airspace availability, to aircraft positions through CAAS before they can be permitted in operate in radar pick-up, and to flight plans, is crucial to the Singapore. On the other hand, there are no equivalent safe deconfliction of aviation traffic. Conversely, demands on small unmanned drones, which can easily most commercial companies and drone hobbyists do be acquired from unregulated sellers.22 In the absence not have access to such information. Additionally, of such regulation, merchants may be inclined to pilots of manned aircraft and military drones all use less reliable components to keep production undergo stringent qualification and frequent currency costs low, but in doing so increase the occurrence training to ensure that they are not only competent in flying their aircraft, but also in handling emergencies of equipment failure. A simple failure in the motors (including those happening to aircraft around them). or control surfaces of the drones could result in a The lack of such training for the general populace crash landing, and given that Singapore is densely means that they would not have the response populated, it is highly likely that this drone, which instincts required for such emergency scenarios and would weigh up to Seven kg given today’s regulations, makes it dangerous when they co-share airspace with could seriously hurt a human.23 these manned platforms.20 To overcome this, we must define an equivalent set One possible way of overcoming this is to of standards for the airworthiness of sUAS operating proactively aid new operators to fly their drones in Singapore’s airspace. In this respect, we may have safely. Instead of stating where they cannot fly, such little precedent from other overseas authorities to as within 5km of aerodromes, we could designate set follow, since a falling drone poses great danger to

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 41 our heavily populated environment. There is also efforts near Los Angeles in August 2016. Out of the challenge of regulating and subjecting sellers fear of collisions with these sUAS, the fire-fighting to our locally-defined standards, not only on the helicopters were forced to be grounded. drone design itself, but even on the subcomponents Such disruptions could easily be scaled up to critical to flying safety, such as motors, batteries asymmetrically out-manoeuvre a traditionally superior and sensors. We would also need to arrest and stop Air Force. Masses of sUAS swarms could overwhelm imports of uncertified drones at our customs. us by sheer numbers.24 They could be used to harass

Beyond regulating legitimate private and and physically block our aircraft in the launch and commercial drones, we must also expect to face recovery corridors. The inherent non-attributability threats from drones deliberately used by their of sUAS attacks could also be exploited in a period of tension to limit the defender’s response—as an overly operators to cause harm. Individual terrorists, groups aggressive reaction to such non-lethal swarms could or even state actors may exploit easy access to portray us as the aggressor. Going further, they could commercial drones and use them to carry payloads even be used to lethally damage our aircraft and base with more insidious intents. For instance, ISIS infrastructure by means of air-launched weapons or fighters had used drones such as the DJI Phantom as a kamikaze attacks. means to deliver Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). In less lethal examples, these drones may also cause To be able to defend, we must first be able to see. security scares or disrupt peacetime operations. Traditional military methods of detection rely heavily In two different instances in September 2013 and on active radars, which operate on the principle of January 2015, unarmed sUAS were able to fly near to emitting radio waves and listening to the echoes that German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a campaign bounce back to the radar from the aircraft. This method, speech and to the White House respectively. More however, works poorly with sUAS which have a small recently, the presence of sUAS disrupted fire-fighting Radar Cross Section (RCS). Military radars are usually

Figure 4: Propaganda showing ISIS testing an aerial vehicle-borne Improvised Explosive Device in May 2017.25

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 42 tuned to certain thresholds to reject reflections from Thus, beyond inducting new counter-drone objects with small RCSes, such as from ground clutter capabilities, the RSAF must work closely with the or from birds. sUAS typically have similar RCSes and civil authorities like CAAS and the Ministry of Home are thus difficult to detect, particularly if they are Affairs to take punitive actions against offenders. moving slowly or are hovering.26 Even if this could A Whole-of-Government approach is necessary to be overcome, it would still be a challenge to design arrest the problem at source—from enforcing the software algorithms that could tell the difference airworthiness standard at the start of the production between drone swarms and flocks of bids. The most chains, to implementing technologies to detect and commonly used technique today to detect drones counter unauthorised and hostile uses of drones. do so by listening out for the radio communications between the drone and its operator.27 This method To overcome this, we must define an requires suites of passive radio frequency sensors to be placed in the right positions relative to the drone equivalent set of standards for the and operators. In some cases, this method had been airworthiness of sUAS operating in further enhanced by pairing the system with acoustic sensors to locate the characteristic whistle generated Singapore’s airspace. by the drone’s motors. CONCLUSION Given the challenge of detection, we must also Given the rapid pace of sUAS technological emphasise the quick engagement of these threats. The defence industry has been investing in counter- advancement, we must develop a keen understanding drone technologies, both for commercial and military of the opportunities for military applications users seeking to defend their assets from drone and potential challenges, both in the future threats. Most solutions target the communication operationalisation of sUAS and the defence against link between the drone and its operator. By jamming sUAS threats. This will allow the SAF to deliberate the the radio frequencies, the drone could be induced to acquisition considerations and policy decisions today land immediately or be tricked to return to its pre- so as to capitalise on the asymmetric advantage of programmed landing point.28 However, this solution has limited effects on GPS-capable drones, which could sUAS. Most importantly, a whole-of-government be programmed to fly autonomously to its target and approach is needed to govern the widespread civilian not have to communicate with its operator. In such usage of sUAS and defend against hostile sUAS. As cases, a kinetic means of responding to the threat is the doyen of aviation knowledge and safety within necessary. This is still an exploratory domain, as many the SAF, the RSAF must lead the development of a different solutions had been explored internationally, centralised UAV centre to chart the future of UAVs in from firing nets from guns or other small drones, to the military. using more advanced technologies like lasers and high-powered microwave, to even using trained ENDNOTES eagles to catch intruding drones as trialed by the 1. The Federal Aviation Administration defines a small 29 French Air Force. Even then, being unable to arrest Unmanned Aircraft as one weighing less than 55 pounds the offending operator, the drone threat could easily and can be flown without the possibility of direct come back another day. human intervention from within or on the aircraft.

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(https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/ 11. SUAS News. (2016, April 08). Movidius and DJI Bring Advisory_Circular/AC_107-2.pdf) Vision-Based Autonomy to DJI Phantom 4. Retrieved October 01, 2017, from https://www.suasnews. 2. Phantom 4 Pro - Professional aerial filmmaking made com/2016/04/movidius-dji-bring-vision-based- easy. (n.d.). Retrieved September 05, 2017, from http:// autonomy-dji-phantom-4/ www.dji.com/phantom-4-pro 12. Thuloweit, K. (2016, October 13). New test force focuses 3. FLIR Systems. (n.d.). Introducing FLIR Aerial Thermal on autonomy, small unmanned aircraft systems, n. Imaging Kits. Retrieved September 05, 2017, from Retrieved October 01, 2017, from http://www.afmc. http://www.flir.com.hk/suas/content/?id=74946 af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/972984/new-test- 4. Weise, E. (2016, December 14). Amazon delivered its force-focuses-on-autonomy-small-unmanned-aircraft- first customer package by drone. Retrieved September systems-new-technolo/ 05, 2017, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/ 13. Pomerleau, Mark. Air Force turns its attention to small news/2016/12/14/amazon-delivered-its-first-customer- UAS platforms. Defence Systems. May 26, 2016. package-drone/95401366/ 14. ibid. Franco, M. (2016, May 10). DHL uses completely autonomous system to deliver consumer goods by 15. ibid. drone. Retrieved September 05, 2017, from http:// 16. Drew, J. (1970, May 04). USAF's Small UAS roadmap newatlas.com/dhl-drone-delivery/43248/ calls for swarming 'kamikaze' drones. Retrieved October 5. Han, L. Y. (2016, August 09). New anti-riot weapon, 01, 2017, from https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ electric unicycles, drones with sirens unveiled at Police articles/usafs-small-uas-roadmap-calls-for-swarming- Workplan Seminar. Retrieved September 05, 2017, from kamikaz-424973/ http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/ 17. https://youtu.be/5NGgHyfPGU0 new-anti-riot-weapon-electric-unicycles-drones-with- sirens-unveiled-at-police 18. Tan, A. Singapore Changi Airport’s Passenger Movements in Nov up 3.2% from a Year Ago. The Business Times. 6. Sun, D. (2016, November 28). SCDF to fight fires from December 28, 2016. the sky. Retrieved September 05, 2017, from http:// www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/scdf-fight-fires-sky 19. Orphanides, K G. (2016, Apr 18). Police Called After ‘drone’ Hits Plane Landing at Heathrow. Wired. Retrieved 7. David Pogue (2016,December 15). Amazon’s first drone October 01, 2017, from http://www.wired.co.uk/article/ delivery: our exclusive interview. https://finance.yahoo. heathrow-drone-collision-plane. com/news/amazons-first-drone-delivery-our-exclusive- interview-184441128. 20. Dillow, C. (2015, Feb 19) With New Rules, the FAA and Drone Industry Make up. Fortune. Retreved October 1, 8. Custers, B. (2016). The Future of Drone Use: Opportunities 2017, from http://fortune.com/2015/02/18/faa-drone- and Threats from Ethical and Legal Perspectives. The rules-proposal/. Hague (The Netherlands): T.M.C. Asser Press. 21. Poulsen, K. (2015, May 02). Why the US Government is 9. US. Army, Rq-11B Raven Small Unmanned Aircraft Terrified of Hobbyist Drones. Wired. Retrieved October System(SUAS), https://www.army.mil/article/137604/ 1, 2017, from https://www.wired.com/2015/02/white- rq_11b_raven_small_unmanned_aircraft_systems_suas house-drone/. 10. US Marine Corps (2016). Marine Aviation Plan 2016. 22. ibid. https://marinecorpsconceptsandprograms.com/sites/ default/files/files/Marine%20Aviation%20Plan%20 23. Drone Laws in Singapore. The Straits Times. April 19, 2016%20FINAL.pdf 2016.

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24. Feng, E. & Clover C. Drone swarms vs conventional arms: www.dedrone.com/en/dronetracker/drone-detection- China’s military debate. The Financial Times. Aug 25, hardware. 2017. 28. Elgan, M. (December 3, 2016). How to Shoot a Drone out 25. Jack Crosbie , ISIS video shows ‘ Suicide Drones’ piloted of the Sky. Computerworld. Retrieved on October 1, 2017, with a PS2 controller , https://www.inverse.com/ from http://www.computerworld.com/article/3147045/ article/31733-isis-drone-playstation-controller robotics/how-to-shoot-a-drone-out-of-the-sky.html.

26.Boyle, M. J. (November 17, 2014). The Race for Drones. 29. Roberts, J. J. (February 23, 2017). France Is Training Orbis 59, no. 1. Eagles to Kill Drones. Fortune. Retrieved on October 1, 27. Advanced Drone Detection and Warning Device. 2017, from http://fortune.com/2017/02/22/drones- Dedrone. Retrieved on October 1, 2017, from http:// eagles-france/.

LTC Ho Sen Kiat is currently a Branch Head in JID. He attended the Malaysian Armed Forces Staff College in 2013. LTC Ho is an Air Warfare Offi cer (C3) by vocation and was previously the CO of 205 SQN.

MAJ Lee Mei Yi is currently a student at the Air Command and Staff College in Alabama, USA. She is a pilot by vocation and has previously served as a Flight Commander at 143 SQN and Staff Offi cer at APD. She graduated from Columbia University with a Masters of Arts (Political Science) and from the University of Chicago with a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) while on a SAF Merit Scholarship (Women).

CPT Sim Bao Chen is currently a Battery Commander in 3 DA Bn. He graduated from Imperial College London with a Masters of Engineering in Electrical and Electronic Engineering. CPT Sim is an AWO by vocation, and was previously in charge of GBAD Capability Development in APD.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 45 BUILDING A RESILIENT RSAF

by LTC Ang Teo Hong, MAJ Nicholas Tay Weizhe & ME4 Kok Khew Fai

Abstract:

The nature of conflict today has shifted considerably. Significant political, economic and social costs incurred from conventional warfare have resulted in a clear shift towards what we today observe as Hybrid Warfare. Hybrid Warfare is increasingly sophisticated, as actors leverage new technology and its proliferation in a bid to target the soft underbelly of modern society, in the pursuit of their goals. With the rise of social media, adversaries had further exploited information operations to wear down the operational effectiveness of the military. Against the advent of Hybrid Warfare, a resilient mindset could serve as a useful counter, above and beyond the operational and tactical ‘hard shield’ that we put up. This essay analyses the value of resilience in face of hybrid warfare, and highlights steps that the Singapore Government are already taking. The essay also highlights the existing resilience programme in Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) and propose ways to enhance our airmen’s psychological resilience through tough and realistic training.

Keywords: Hybrid Warfare; Social Media; Will-To-Fight; Psychological Resilience; Media Manipulation

INTRODUCTION it is imperative that we pivot beyond our traditional scope of conventional warfighting, to understanding The nature of conflict today has shifted considerably. these new threats so that we can respond to them Significant political, economic and social costs effectively. While the RSAF must continue to be incurred from conventional warfare have resulted in prepared to fight a conventional war as itsraison a clear shift towards what we today observe as Hybrid d’etre, it must also be ready to face an expanding Warfare. In place of conventional conflict, states and mission set, and the likelihood of persistent, but non-state actors alike have turned to Hybrid Warfare low-intensity conflict even in relative peace. The as a coercive tool in pursuit of its ends, given its essay will first explore the notion of Hybrid Warfare relatively lower cost and attribution. Hybrid Warfare and argue that perpetrators of Hybrid Warfare aim to today is increasingly sophisticated, as actors leverage achieve acquiescence from its target by crippling its new technology and its proliferation in a bid to target Will-to-Fight (W2F) or undermining state government the soft underbelly of modern society, in the pursuit and national institution. The essay will then discuss of their goals. Such threats could be prolonged and the value of psychological resilience in response to persistent as a means to ‘slow boil’ a society or it could Hybrid Warfare and highlight potential watch areas be a single high-intensity event aimed at causing for us. Lastly, the essay will discuss possible ways to societal fractures. As modern military professionals, enhance our psychological resilience.

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THE EMERGENCE OF HYBRID WARFARE war option appears to be an ever increasing likelihood. After all, such means continue to provide “The most pertinent battles militaries actors with the ability to achieve acquiescence from wage today and in future are likely to be non- its target without the immense efforts to kick start conventional, hybrid ones. Full frontal battles traditional war machinery. Hybrid Warfare is likely to are too crude in a subtle world with many shades pose challenges to states in two key ways. Firstly, of animosity and friendship. The battles of the hybrid attacks, especially the subtle indoctrination twenty-first century and beyond are therefore of a state’s population, are difficult to determine, less likely to be fought in uniforms, with bullets and far more difficult to counter. This could be due or tanks, missiles or planes; rather, the battles to: (1) the difficulties in determining the origin of of today and tomorrow would be prolonged attack; (2) the sheer volume and types of possible hybrid assaults, using a full spectrum of tools attacker; or (3) because ‘infiltrations’ into the social by players including terrorists in masks, geeks fabric of targeted states were sufficiently covert and in jeans or executives in suits and carrying subtle that it would escape detection at the onset. suitcases.” The inability to determine and therefore, react in a – Mr. Ong Ye Kung, Minister for Education (Then Minister of State for Defence)1 timely manner could potentially place states on the back foot when facing a hybrid threat. Next, because Hybrid Warfare is low-cost and bears a small amount Understanding Hybrid Warfare of risk for political escalation, attacks are likely to Hybrid Warfare is the employment of coercive and be sustained, while low in intensity. Over time, these subversive activities, conventional and unconventional could erode our W2F and drain resources. methods, used in a co-ordinated manner by state or non-state actors (including terrorists) to achieve Such methods to coerce a targeted state into specific objectives while remaining below the acquiescence are not new. In the Cold War era, Russia threshold of open organised hostilities, so as to avoid had similarly employed subversive means to ‘gain 3 the costs of a direct military conflict. The intent of influence and shape the political landscape in Europe.’ such attacks is to exploit the vulnerabilities of the In particular, non-violent actions information target and generate ambiguity to hinder decision- operations have always been in use during conflicts. making. Disinformation campaigns, enabled by the In today’s context however, what has changed is proliferation of social media, could also be used to the perpetrator's ability to conduct such operations steer the political conversations, or to ‘radicalise, with a sense of pervasiveness and permanence, and recruit and direct proxy actors’ for hybrid threats.2 to do so without the burden of geography. This is The goal of such attacks is to—over time—create, enabled by the advent of new media, which allows identify and exploit fault lines within a society, in both domestic and foreign audiences to interact freely and be influenced by events in a near real-time order to support the perpetrators’ aims. manner.4 This has resulted in ‘the fight over control The use of Hybrid Warfare as a substitute for [of] people’s perceptions and behaviour becoming an economically and politically expensive conventional integral part of modern conflicts.’ 5

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Information Operations As A Key Tenet of Modern audience could yield significant operational-level Hybrid Warfare effectiveness.9 The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence The use of Hybrid Warfare as a substitute highlighted six ways which social media could for economically and politically expensive be weaponised for the purposes of conflicts, first conventional war option appears to be an explored by Thomas Elkjer Nissen. Of the six, what is ever increasing likelihood. After all, such of note is the ability of actors today to utilise social means continue to provide actors with media to conduct ‘Inform and Influence’ operations.6 the ability to achieve acquiescence from In this essay, we refer to such activities broadly as Information Operations (IO). its target without the immense efforts to kick start traditional war machinery.

In leveraging new media to conduct Hybrid Warfare, states and non-state actors alike have found new channels of communications that are far more defined and targeted.

Amongst non-state actors, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levent (ISIS) propaganda machine and utilisation of social media bears mentioning. Over the years, ISIS had realised its ability to reach the masses through social media. Through a systematic and

NATO StratComNATO Centre of Excellence organised media campaigned, ISIS was able to utilise Figure 1: Insignia of NATO’s StratCom Centre of Excellence the wide range of social media platforms—Twitter, Facebook, and peer-to-peer messaging apps such as Such operations aim to manipulate the information Telegram—to reach out to its followers. Winter notes a target audience would be exposed to, in order to that ISIS had been extremely prolific in the sheer shape its cognitive domain. The intent is to influence amount of content that was published. Between ‘a target audience’s values and belief system, their 17th July to 15th August 2015, the Islamic month of perceptions, emotions, motives, reasoning, and, Shawwal, Winter documented the total media output 7 ideally, their behaviour.’ The end result is that a from Islamic State’s official outlets and noted a ‘target audience’s values, belief system, perceptions, total of 1146 discrete batches of propaganda being emotions, motivation, reasoning and behaviour’ could distributed throughout that window. This included a be influenced to the advantage of the perpetrator.8 ‘mixture of photo essays, videos, audio statements, Through both covert and overt actions, ‘deliberate news bulletins, posters, theological essays, and and organised actions to spread rumours, hoaxes and so on.’10 Winter further notes that the content manipulative messages in the virtual environment spanned across six themes—'mercy, belonging, aimed at raising the fear and panic’ of a targeted brutality, victimhood, war and utopia’—and there

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 48 was a systematic and organised approach to tailor its adjust their messaging and content in support of the messages to each audience that it wished to affect.11 Kremlin’s objectives. By drumming up the alarmist For example, while ISIS continued to market brutality content in response to the Maidan, Russia was able at the point, the intended audience for ultraviolence to stoke fear and confusion in Crimea.16 Narratives was observed to have shrunk towards the regional put forth by Putin had claimed that the Crimeans audience, as it lent emphasis to intimidate its had turned to Russia for help, and Russia ‘could population, in a bid to suppress dissent.12 Other than not abandon Crimea and its residents in distress.’17 ISIS’s ability to calibrate its message to the targeted Beyond traditional news means, Russia’s adept use audience, ISIS was also able to update its content in of social media also allowed it to capitalise the new order to appeal to newer generations of fighters. For media platforms to wage its information campaign.18 example, GoPro cameras were affixed to AK-47s and This was further exacerbated by Ukraine’s deep divide sniper rifles that resulted in footages that appeared in its geopolitical space. For example, on the issue to be ‘plucked from the Call of Duty videogame of whether Ukraine should join the European Union, franchise.’13 ISIS’s propaganda videos were also ‘only 19% in the east and 26.8% in the southeast increasingly polished, with contents such as ‘Flames think Ukraine should join the European Union (EU), of War’ adopting a Hollywood-esque depiction of the while 84.2% in the west believe Ukraine is a natural ISIS campaign.14 These efforts, taken in combination, fit with the EU. Nearly 60% in the north agree that EU had allowed ISIS to amass significant reach in order is the place to be, and just under half in the center to push through its desired messages. part of the country want EU integration.’ On NATO, support is scant in the southeast and east; only a In 2015, the annexation of Crimea by Russia saw little over a third in the centre and north agree that a clear demonstration of IO at play in order to first Ukraine should join the Western military powers; and deny, and then later justify Russia’s involvement only slightly over half of those in the western regions and military invasion during the conflict.15 Russia’s agree to closer integration with NATO.19 IO efforts were played out at both the strategic and operational levels. Information Operations' intent is to

At the strategic level, the Russians were able influence ‘a target audience’s values to accurately identify the key fissures within the and belief system, their perceptions, Crimean population that were ripe for exploitation. emotions, motives, reasoning, and, Kofman and Rojansky noted that earlier steps taken by Kyiv’s interim government (formed after the Maidan ideally, their behaviour.’ The end result Revolution in 2014), such as declaring the possible is that a ‘target audience’s values, adoption of Russian language, provided the necessary belief system, perceptions, emotions, space for Russian IO to take root. In the aftermath, motivation, reasoning and behaviour’ Ukraine continued to allow broadcasting of media programmes that were in Russian language and that could be influenced to the advantage of provided the space for Russian media to quickly the perpetrator.

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Ukraine was already deeply divided along on the ground, while allowing the perpetrators to geopolitical lines on multiple issues. The recent maintain a veil over the sponsoring state. Maidan protests in 2014 had also added stresses to their existing fault lines and eventually allowed Russia to exploit the situation to their advantage. Russia’s ability to secure the information space through its monopoly of news channels in Ukraine also allowed it to dominate the information realm and prevented itself from NATO encirclement while at the same time avoiding full-blown hostilities with NATO.

At the operational level, Russia’s ability to mix and match a variety of tactically employed troops Wikipedia (e.g. Spetsnaz (Russian Special Forces), and Electronic Armed men without insignia (so-called "little green men") in Warfare Units), operating both conventionally (in Simferopol Airport combat) and unconventionally (to support IO), proved Similarly, in the aftermath of the 2016 United effective in Crimea. The use of Spetsnaz in Crimea, States (US) Presidential Elections, multiple news without overt attribution, aided in softening the outlets had alleged Russia’s involvement in swaying ground during its invasion. During the operation, public opinion that tipped the scale towards Donald the Spetsnaz had masked their faces, and wore Trump. Later evidence released by Facebook indicated nondescript military clothing that bore no information that ‘approximately $100,000 in ad spending from of their unit or national allegiances. Crucially, the June of 2015 to May of 2017—associated with ‘little green men’ participated in decisive operations roughly 3,000 ads—that was connected to about 470 against key buildings and infrastructure, ‘only to inauthentic accounts and Pages,’ of which Facebook disappear when associated militias and local troops had determined to have operated out of Russia.23 arrived to consolidate the gains.’20 This provided In the light of recent allegations, serious questions Russia with plausible deniability, while advancing were raised on Russia’s involvemen, and an official its operational advantages.21 During the physical Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigation invasion, Russia managed to seize control of the local was initiated to determine if indeed the US election cellular networks and used them to send propaganda was tampered with. While the exact impact of Russia’s text messages to soldiers deployed in the front line. meddling in the US elections—if indeed true—is still Other methods such as the use of cell site simulators unclear, the episode provides another glimpse into how Hybrid Warfare and the adept use of IO could to impersonate cell phone towers were also employed be adopted to shape narratives and drive political in order to send messages to targeted audience.22 agendas without necessarily going to war. Messages such as ‘Your comrades nearby already left their positions, so you should leave yours as well’ This heavy manipulation of the media is worsened were disseminated to soldiers in the front line. Such by the difficulties in our ability to discern fake news efforts continue to chip away at the morale of troops from digital media. A study conducted by the Stanford

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History Education Group analysed the ability of landscape, to absorb shocks and reorganise in order to students to judge the credibility of information that preserve its original way of life; revitalisation refers flooded their media devices. Notably, the study notes to the ability of a system to change the landscape of that while ‘our ‘digital natives’ may be able to flit stability and create a fundamentally new one when between Facebook and Twitter while simultaneously ecologic, economic or social structures have become uploading a selfie to Instagram and texting a friend,’ untenable.26 Brinkel notes that while all forms of they are easily duped when evaluating the veracity of resilience could be useful when faced with a crisis, information that comes through these social media the approach of seeing resilience as revitalisation channels.24 In a more worrisome report, a follow-up would allow us to ‘influence the international context research on how experts—defined as Historians, in such a way that the core values of society are Professional Fact Checkers and Stanford Undergraduate thought anew, modernised or made to work in a new students—noted that only Fact Checkers were able context.’27 Of note, Rodin did not just see this as a to accurately distinguish between accurate and response to Hybrid Warfare, but for all crises. inaccurate digital sources, while ‘Historians and While Singapore has thus far remained fortunate students often fell victim to easily manipulated.’25 to avoid significant hybrid actions, we are by no While no similar studies were conducted for means immune to the rise of Hybrid Warfare. In Singaporeans, it seems reasonable to assume that we just 2017, Singapore had experienced spikes in the too, are equally susceptible to being swayed by fake cases of cyber attacks, while the threat of terrorism news, even despite our high IT literacy rates. continues to remain clear and present. Beyond the Ukraine was already deeply divided along hard shield that Singapore must build to fight against geopolitical lines on multiple issues. The Hybrid Warfare, we must also ensure that our society remains resilient in the face of troubled times. recent Maidan protests in 2014 had also added stresses to their existing fault Whole of Government Efforts in Singapore lines and eventually allowed Russia to Singapore’s approach against Hybrid Warfare continues to, first and foremost, depend on our exploit the situation to their advantage. concept of Total Defence and adopt a Whole-of- Government approach towards responding against OUR RESPONSE TO HYBRID WARFARE Hybrid attacks. Given that Hybrid Warfare aims to Value of Resilience target us below the threshold of war, the SAF’s ability Against the advent of Hybrid Warfare, a resilient to conduct a full-scale military operation will likely be mindset could serve as a useful counter, above and curtailed. This means that other tenets—Economic, beyond the operational and tactical ‘hard shield’ that Psychological, Civil and Social Defence—must form we put up. In her book, Rodin explained that resilience the bedrock of our response should we come under as a concept takes place in three phases—readiness, such attacks. Thus far, Singapore has taken the first responsiveness and revitalisation. Readiness is defined step to incorporate readiness as part of our wider as the ability to recover from shocks or crisis and national effort to guard against unconventional return to a pre-existing state; responsiveness refers to threat. Moving forward, Home Affairs Minister K. the ability of a system to adapt to changing the threat Shanmugam highlighted that the campaign would now

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 51 MINDEF The theme for 2018's Total Defence campaign—"Together We Keep Singapore Strong"—focuses on the many ways we can put Total Defence into action in our everyday lives. shift towards raising preparedness at workplaces and United and Stay Strong’. Of note, the imperative to in schools. For example, in August 2017, Singapore’s ‘Stay United’ bears mentioning, as it highlights the financial sector underwent simulated terrorist and need ‘to be part of a cohesive community and show cyber attacks as part of its efforts to validate the solidarity during peacetime and in the aftermath of plans they had put in place. Code-named Exercise a crisis’, while advocating ‘the building of strong RAFFLES, the exercise was an interagency effort that ties with your neighbours and community.”30 Akin included both government and civilian sectors.28 to Rodin’s description of responsiveness, this is an Such exercises continue to drill Singaporeans and our acknowledgement that such hybrid attacks could institutions on the necessary steps to take in order fundamentally undermine the social fabrics that bind to bounce back quickly after crisis. At the national the Singapore society together, and it is necessary for level, the SGSecure movement was launched in 2016 us to actively safeguard it. with the aim of mobilising Singaporeans to safeguard Potential Watch Areas for our Organisation our way of life and stand united in the fight against At the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF)/Singapore 29 terrorists. Each and every Singaporean is called Armed Forces (SAF) level, to fight against Hybrid upon to play our part by being vigilant in deterring a Warfare, we would need to continue fortifying our terrorist attack and be equipped with the knowledge defences against traditional threats, train resilient and skills on what to do when an attack occurs. soldiers, while we continue to raise awareness on the SGSecure advocates the need to ‘Stay Alert, Stay threat of Hybrid Warfare. To train resilient soldiers,

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 52 the SAF must continue to ensure that its training This is an acknowledgement that such syllabus remains tough but realistic as it is only hybrid attacks could fundamentally through adversity that the value of resilience could undermine the social fabrics that bind be taught. We should also continue efforts in support of the wider SGSecure movement, given the reach the Singapore society together, and it is of National Service (NS). By leveraging the common necessary for us to actively safeguard it. touch point of NS and the SAF Volunteer Corps (SAFVC), responsiveness and even revitalisation. For example, where Singapore women, first generation permanent key milestones in our Servicemen’s NS journeys residents and new citizens can contribute to National could be used to reinforce key messages through Defence, the SAF was able to train thousands of meaningful actions, in order to build up resilience national servicemen and volunteers each year in in each individual. For example, recruits undergoing counter-terrorism as well as raising awareness on Basic Military Training (BMT) are given letters from the threat of Hybrid Warfare.31 Over time, this should home during the most grueling part of their outfield build our ability to react against the fall-out of Hybrid experiences. Such actions remind us why we serve Warfare. and are useful avenues to give our servicemen a sense As NS continues to be the bedrock of our of purpose, help them understand the need to defend security, our National Servicemen must continue to our homeland and secure Singapore against future be the strongest link in our defence. Through our threats. More fundamentally, beyond the skillsets institution of NS, we can move beyond readiness, to taught as part of the curriculum, our institution of NS Ministry of Communications and Information Enhancements to the SGSecure app were announced as part of the Emergency Preparedness (EP) Day and SGSecure outreach, held at Teck Ghee constituency.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 53 also provides a common space and an ‘equal starting “On 19 Apr 2017, LTA Ong Bole Bryan, a point’ for Singaporean males from all walks of lives to fighter pilot trainee, was planned for his 3rd interact and understand each other better. Through solo sortie on the M-346. After take-off, he interaction, fault lines might over time be blurred, raised the landing gear handle and observed as individuals identify areas of commonalities with that the landing gear handle red light remained each other, while acknowledging that differences illuminated. LTA Ong maintained his aircraft exist but deserves to be respected. Such meaningful below the gear limiting speed and proceeded to conversations allow us to build resilience at the social the designated area to execute the emergency level. actions. Shortly thereafter, he noticed the Specific to the RSAF, we had implemented the illumination of the “Right Hydraulic Hot” caution Adaptiveness, Innovativeness and Resilience (AIR) light and promptly shut down the right engine training since 2012. The programme aimed to develop in accordance with the emergency checklist mental agility in our people that would allow them to actions. LTA Ong declared a MAYDAY call and quickly adapt their cognitive models in uncertain and recovered to Cazaux Airbase via a single engine difficult situations, recognise changes, and develop approach. On the landing roll, he experienced innovative solutions while maintaining an optimal additional failures of the normal braking and mindset to achieve mission outcome. To achieve this, nose wheel steering systems. LTA Ong promptly the programme proposed a two-pronged approach engaged the hand-operated emergency braking that focused on education and training. Under the system, maintained directional control with education package, participants were to be equipped only the rudder, and brought the aircraft to a with the fundamental theoretical knowledge of AIR safe stop." and this would be done primarily through classroom – Focus, Air Force Safety News, 201732 learning. Under the training package, an activity-based methodology was applied, whereby AIR descriptors were infused into identified training activities or Enhancing Our Resilience exercises and developed to guide both instructors Moving forward, the AIR programme could be and trainees to observe and adjust behaviours. Field further enhanced in order to consolidate and build results have demonstrated that the AIR training was upon the results of our initial efforts. Firstly, while effective in enabling our people to perform better the AIR programme had initially championed for a under stress with increased composure, mental focus School to Ops Continuum, it was difficult to follow and self-regulation abilities. These qualities are through beyond the school house environment crucial to ensure that we remain resilient in the face given the high operational tempo at the unit level. of adversity. We saw the fruits of AIR training being Recognising the need for building up resilience in our demonstrated when our airman, LTA Ong Boyle Bryan, Airmen nonetheless, the RSAF had recently moved to demonstrated exceptional airmanship and flying implement AIR training across operational units. In abilities in a quickly compounding emergency. This the enhanced framework, specific attention will be despite the fact it this was only his third solo flight placed on enhancing the decision-making ability of on the M346 trainer aircraft. an individual by managing perceptual errors and on

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 54 enhancing team performance by strengthening the also utilise such opportunities to drive deeper awareness and understanding of the self and the conversations on societal resilience in the RSAF in the team’s mental models and thought processes. To hypothetical aftermath of such incidents, in order to enable this, instructors will be trained to evaluate the generate a clearer understanding of what our innate trainees’ cognitive processes and pitfalls in decision vulnerabilities are and what we must do to protect making. Specific attention would also be placed to those. evaluate the mindset of individual or the team of Against the backdrop of Hybrid Warfare, the ability operators during the execution of a given mission. In of our Airmen to react confidently and timely to a new doing so, the aim is to recognise potential points of and unforeseen threat would be critical in allowing us failures that could arise due to certain individual or to achieve mission success in our complex operating shared mindsets, so that our airmen can build up a environment. On top of its operational and tactical repertoire of cognitive instincts. value, the skill to understand the mental models that

Beyond this, the revised framework also aimed to underpin a team’s actions could also serve our Airmen work with the various Type Groups and Commands well outside of operations. As Hybrid Warfare continues to enrich the training scenarios in order to feature to threaten prolonged and low-intensity conflicts, the ability to sustain and hold together strong teams novel and complex scenarios so as to enhance their becomes critical in ensuring that the RSAF can continue real-time decision-making abilities, hone cognitive to sustain the grind of daily operations. Here, the instincts and strengthen team performance. This ability to understand mental models at the execution could also be conducted beyond the Squadrons. For of missions could be leveraged to understand what example, as part of our efforts to incorporate and binds or could potentially break the team, in order to provide dedicated emphasis to resilience training stem out potential problems early. into ops and training, we could leverage existing exercises and operations (i.e. APGC’s Base OPS Day) Beyond operationalising AIR training, there is and top up the relevant content during the execution perhaps scope to incorporate new materials that cover of such activities. Different elements of the airbases the wider range of missions that the SAF has to contend would have to work together to perform their roles to with today. Case studies and scenario examples that ensure the continual functioning of base operations emphasise the increasing range of threats that we and the generation of airpower. These simulation face today should be included, so that our people exercises not only provided realistic scenarios for are continuously reminded that the relative peace our Airmen to be exposed to the different situations and stability that we enjoy today could be punctured that they would be expected to face during period easily with Hybrid Warfare. The intent is for them to of conflict but would also drill their responses under be sensitised to these threats, understand the need these stressful scenarios. Expanding the OPS day to for tough and realistic training and to facilitate deeper exercise against hybrid scenarios would also sensitise conversations on the spillover effects that could take our servicemen to the new threat environment. place in the event of a hybrid conflict. Examples could include a base lock down against CONCLUSION potential lone-wolf intruders, simulated cyber attacks on the internal computer network systems In today's highly connected world, the relative and spread of misinformation. Commanders could peace and stability that Singapore has enjoyed since

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 55 the end of its tumultuous nation-building years is 6. Nissen, T. E. (2015). #TheWeaponizationOfSocialMedia -@ likely to be punctuated with small-scale, low-intensity Characteristics_of_Contemporary_Con icts. Copenhagen: conflicts, waged by actors of various identities, with Royal Danish Defence College. means that are increasingly accessible and cheap. 7. Ibid.

Against such a backdrop, while the RSAF continues to 8. Svetoka, S., Reynolds, A., & Curika, L. (2016). Social sharpen its fighting edge in order to neutralise such Media as a Tool of Hybird Warfare. Riga: NATO Strategic threats when they appear, we must train our Airmen Communications Centre of Excellence. to be resilient in the face of future crisis, in order 9. Ibid. to be effective in both conventional and hybrid war. 10. Winter, C. (2015, October). Documenting the Virtual When the SAF is called upon to meet the threat of Caliphate. Quilliam, 5. Hybrid Warfare, our Airmen must stand ready. Under 11. Ibid those circumstances, resilience becomes necessary, 12. Winter, C. (2015, October). Documenting the Virtual so that our people have the necessary wherewithal to Caliphate. Quilliam, 7. overcome the initial shocks and continue to defend our mission with strong will and courage. At the same 13. Koerner, B. I. (2016, Mar 29). Why ISIS is Winning the Social Media War. time, our people must also continue to play their role as an active citizen by being the glue that holds our 14. Clark, K. J. (2017, May 3). ISIS's Most Powerful Weapon. society together, even as perpetrators seek to divide 15. Rojansky, M., & Kofman, M. (2015). Kennan Cable No. us along our fissure lines. 7: A Closer look at Russia's "Hybrid War". Pennsylvania: Kennan Institute.

16. Ibid. ENDNOTES 17. Peterson, N. (2017, Mar 4). How Putin Uses Fake News to 1. Ong, Y. K. (2016, Aug 5). Second Minister for Defence; Wage War on Ukraine. then Minister of State for Defence. Keynote Address by 18. Svetoka, S., Reynolds, A., & Curika, L. (2016). Social Senior Minister of State for Defence Mr Ong Ye Kung at the Media as a Tool of Hybird Warfare. Riga: NATO Strategic Asia Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers 2016. Communications Centre of Excellence. Singapore, Singapore, Singapore: MINDEF 19. Rapoza, K. One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals 2. European Commission. (2016). Joint Communication to Prefer Moscow To Kiev, Forbes. the European Parliament and the Council: Joint Framework on countering hybrid thrats; a European Union Response. 20. United States Army Special Operations Command. Brussels: European Commission. (2015). “Little Green Men”: a Primer on Modern Russian Uncovenetional Warfare, Ukraine 2013 - 2014. Fort Bragg: 3. Chivvis, C. S. (2017). Understanding Russian "Hybird United States Army Special Operations Command. Warfare" And What Can Be Done About it. Santa Monica: RAND. 21. Ibid.

4. Ibid. 22. Digital Forensic Research Lab. (2017, May 18). Electronic Warfare by Drone and SMS. 5. Svetoka, S., Reynolds, A., & Curika, L. (2016). Social Media as a Tool of Hybird Warfare. Riga: NATO Strategic 23. Stamos, A. (2017). An update on information operations Communications Centre of Excellence. on Facebook, Facebook newsroom

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24 Stanford History Education Group. (2016). Lateral 29. SGSecure. (2016, September 24). Official Launch of the Reading: Reading Less and Learning More when Evaluating SGSecure Movement. Digital Information. Stanford History Education Group 30. Singapore Police Force. Overview of SGSecure. 25. Ibid. 31. Leong, J. (2017, June 30). 18,000 national servicemen to 26. Rodin, J. (2015). The Resilience Dividend. London: Profile undergo counter-terrorism training each year from July Books Ltd. 32. Focus, Air Force Safety News, 2017. Chief of Air Force 27. Brinkel, T. (2017). The Resilient Mind-set and Safety Award. Republic of Singapore Air Force, 28. Deterrenece. Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies, 19.

28. Yahya, Y. (2017, August 24). Singapore financial sector conducts terror, cyber attack simulation to test business continuity.

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LTC Ang Teo Hong, currently Commander of the GBAD School, had previously held the appointments of CO of the 18th Divisional Air Defence Artillery Battalion and Senior Force Transformation Officer in JPTD. He graduated from the New Zealand Command and Staff College in 2013 and holds a Bachelors of Engineering (Electrical Engineering) from the University of New South Wales, a Masters of Defence Technology and Systems from NUS, and a Masters of Science in Electrical Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School, where he also received the NPS Wayne E. Meyers Award.

MAJ Nicholas Tay Weizhe is currently serving as OC A Flt, 200 SQN. He graduated from the London School of Economics with a Bachelors of Science in International Relations and History. MAJ Tay is an AWO by vocation, and was previously serving as a Staff Officer in EWDG, JID.

ME4 Kok Khew Fai is an Air Force Engineer by vocation and is currently a Staff Officer at Logistics Planning Branch, Air Engineering and Logistics Department. ME4 Kok graduated from Imperial College London with a Masters of Engineering in Aeronautical Engineering.

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 58 MANPOWER RESOURCES AND THE 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE RSAF

by LTC Nan Yik Mun, CPT Koh Tze Kia & CPT Zech Tan E-an

Abstract:

In this essay, we explore the potentially virtuous cycle that could result if 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies are used to optimise manpower resources and vice versa. We first cover the impact that the 4IR will have on labour markets in the commercial world to better understand the implications of the 4IR for manpower resources. We then use a case study approach, drawing examples from the private sector and foreign militaries to: (1) identify areas in which 4IR technologies could be applied to optimise manpower in the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF); and (2) identify programmes that other militaries have used to develop Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) talents. Lastly, we cover the strategic importance of entrenching ground-up innovation culture to further optimise manpower resources in today’s fast-changing environment and rapidly shifting manpower situation. Ultimately, this essay will suggest that the adoption of 4IR technologies in the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) can play a significant role in solving our manpower problems and thus overcome this potentially existential challenge.

Keywords: 4th Industrial Revolution; Manpower Crunch; Force Multiplier; Artificial Intelligence; Internet of Things; Swarm Technology

INTRODUCTION directly substituting human labour in routine tasks or by supplementing soldiers in other tasks. In doing so, The RSAF faces an imminent manpower crunch. they will act as critical enablers and force multipliers By 2030, the SAF as a whole will face a one-third that will let us do more with less and overcome the reduction in manpower due to Singapore’s dwindling manpower shortages our organisation faces. birth rate.1 The relationship between manpower and 4IR Fortunately, 4IR technologies have the potential to technologies also flows in the other direction however: optimise the RSAF’s manpower resources. The Internet manpower resources are needed to optimise the use of Things (IOT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data of 4IR technologies in the RSAF. In particular, our Analytics (DA), robotics and 3D printing are core 4IR organisation needs to better identify, train and utilise technologies that have the potential to transform the soldiers who are talented in STEM. By doing so, we can way RSAF trains and fights. If applied appropriately, tap into their expertise to harness the potential of 4IR they could allow us to achieve manpower savings by technologies to transform the RSAF.

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The SAF has been bold and progressive in building up THE IMPACT OF 4IR TECHNOLOGIES ON a formidable SAF from scratch. In the past, innovative LABOUR MARKETS ideas were surfaced and made significant impacts in The trend of machines replacing human labour and the SAF. In today’s fast-changing environment, the the resulting fears over technological unemployment entrenchment of ground-up innovation culture will be is nothing new. Over the past few centuries, massive a key enabler to further optimise manpower resources transformation has occurred with the introduction in the RSAF. of innovations such as the steam engine, electricity

In the following pages, we will explore this and the assembly line. Entire lines of work such as potentially virtuous cycle that could result if 4IR gas lamplighters, chimney sweepers and occupations technologies are used to optimise manpower resources in the horse and carriage industry disappeared. and vice versa. We will first cover the impact that the Virtually all other major industries from agriculture 4IR will have on labour markets in the commercial to manufacturing were revolutionised. More recently, world to better understand the implications of the computers have also made jobs such as bookkeeping, 4IR for manpower resources. We will then use a case cashiers and telephone operators redundant. Indeed, study approach, drawing examples from the private there seems to be constant pattern throughout sector and foreign militaries to: (1) identify areas in the past 250 years of massive disruption every 50- which 4IR technologies could be applied to optimise 60 years caused by technological progress and a subsequent shift in the composition of employment manpower in the RSAF; and (2) identify programmes across various industries.2 that other militaries have used to develop STEM talents. Lastly, we will cover the strategic importance The most recent disruptive threats to numerous of entrenching ground-up innovation culture to industries in the commercial world come from 4IR further optimise manpower resources in today’s fast- technologies such as AI and DA. In fact, the disruptive changing environment and rapidly shifting manpower potential of these technologies has sparked fear in situation. Ultimately, this essay will suggest that the some commentators that mass unemployment could adoption of 4IR technologies in the SAF can play a result. One study that examined the susceptibility significant role in solving our manpower problems and of some 702 different types of occupations to thus overcome this potentially existential challenge. computerisation concluded that about 47% of total US employment is at risk.3 At risk are not just manual Unmanned, robotics, AI and swarm jobs but even ones held by highly trained white-collar technologies take the human out of workers. In fact, what determines the vulnerability the loop and will further alleviate the of a type of work to automation is not whether it is manual and labourious or one that is specialised intensive manpower demands force and requires deep knowledge, but whether or not it protection have on our full time national is routine.4 Jobs that involve tasks that can be easily servicemen population. codified into explicit rules machines can follow are

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 60 far more likely to be automated. This applies even to mathematics, engineering and science, including industries such as transportation and logistics where occupations such as data scientists and cyber security companies such as Tesla and Google have already analysts. achieved a significant progress in creating driverless vehicles. For the SAF, the disruption that 4IR technologies will cause represents a series of opportunities to The picture painted by 4IR technologies is not optimise its manpower resources. As the trends above all doom and gloom however. Increasingly, problem- suggest, there are two ways to do so. First, the SAF solving skills are becoming ever more in-demand can fill in the gaps and supplant existing manpower in the workplace. Even as routine jobs disappear, needs by applying 4IR technologies in routine, labour- occupations involving cognitive tasks in which intensive jobs so as to achieve significant manpower educated and skilled labour has a comparative savings. Second, the SAF needs to better utilise its advantage have seen substantial employment growth.5 These high-cognitive jobs often involve abstract and highly-educated manpower by putting the skills creative tasks as well as social intelligence that are and knowledge of its people to better use in high- not easily replaced by machines. Occupations of this cognitive and high-skill jobs that reap a better return nature include dentists and athletic trainers. Many on investment. This is particularly true for those with also complement 4IR technologies in the fields of competencies in areas relevant to 4IR technologies. MINDEF

Technical specifications of the Three Unmanned Surface Vessels.

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USING 4IR TECHNOLOGIES TO ACHIEVE expensive fi ghter aircraft and munitions, in an airbase MANPOWER SAVINGS against potential intruders. An airbase will always This section will explore how 4IR technologies present itself as a highly visible strategic target where such as unmanned, robotics, AI and data analytics a successful infi ltration attack by potential adversaries can be applied in routine, labour-intensive domains (both state and non-state actors) will enhance enemy such as force protection and maintenance to achieve propaganda and severely undermine the RSAF’s air signifi cant manpower saving. power generation capabilities. These challenges are unlikely to ebb and will further compel substantial Force Protection development of capabilities and technologies to Effective air power generation depends on the oppose future threats from increasingly sophisticated airbase’s ability to defend and protect its assets potential adversaries. and personnel. The proliferation of inexpensive and easily acquired weaponries and systems has provided Defending an airbase is labour-intensive as a plethora of means by which an airbase can be easily personnel will be required for perimeter protection, penetrated. Integrated defence is a force protection line of effort.6 Force protection is ‘enterprise lead’ immediate response force and installation protection. for integrated defence, which operates to secure the Full time national servicemen make up a large part sharp end of the RSAF’s air power, deadliest and most of the force protection population. With signifi cant MINDEF

Smart Airbases of the Future

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 62 manpower reduction in slightly more than a decade, required in the event of an intrusion (breach of fence the RSAF must leverage on the emerging technologies line) or when an abnormal situation is encountered to do more with less. Therefore, ‘Smart airbase’ is by the patrol unit. Upon detection of an intruder, an initiative undertaken by the RSAF to supplant the MDARS patrol unit will activate an alarm at the reducing manpower constraints and protect bases control station and allow security forces to see, hear from ever-evolving challenges.7 and challenge the intruder. The patrol unit can also be utilised to read the status of locks on facility Emerging technologies such as Unmanned Ground barriers (open or closed). With AI augmentation and Vehicles (UGVs), robotic sentries and Artificial swarming algorithm, its control station will enable Intelligence (AI) will form the bedrock of future base a swarm of patrol units to be operated at once, security capabilities. A variety of autonomous and creating a network for base command post personnel remotely-operated UGVs carrying sensors and weaponry to monitor and manage multiple heterogeneous will enhance perimeter protection and immediate vehicles and remote sensors to quickly respond in response capabilities. Robotic sentries equipped with suitable numbers to a threat by employing non-lethal sensors and weaponry will protect key base facilities (Optical distractors, rubber bullets) and/or lethal from violent insider threats. AI will provide situational force (5.56mm machine gun) as appropriate. MDARS awareness by synthesising information collected is the first robotic system to be employed in guarding from autonomous sensors and differentiate abnormal sensitive US nuclear sites.10 The employment of UGVs activities from spurious warnings at the perimeter. in RSAF’s airbases will potentially reduce the number Advances in these technologies offer opportunities to optimise manpower and cost efficiency.8 of perimeter protection and immediate response force personnel. There is immense potential for existing and developing UGV technologies to provide effective capabilities for perimeter protection and immediate response force. A sensor-carrying UGV provides ‘eyes and ears’ without the need to deploy a human on site and also eliminating the associated issue of fatigue. The US Army’s Mobile Detection Assessment Response System (MDARS) deploys robotic patrol units equipped with mission payload suites (Electro- optical, Infrared, gunnery and marking devices) that is designed to operate in external environments Figure 1: MDARS Autonomous Patrol Unit 11 autonomously. With minimal operator intervention other than system initiation, the patrol units Robotic sentries with sensors and facial automatically move randomly to and throughout recognition technologies can foil attacks at the base designated patrol areas round the clock to conduct perimeter and autonomously check identification to surveillance, check for intruders and check the status permit or deny entry to various locations without the of facility barriers such as gate and bunker doors.9 need to deploy human on site. One example is the Operator input from the control station will only be Security Guard Robot (SGR)-A1, which is an interesting

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 63 recent robotic sentry development from South Korea. Maintenance As a stationary surveillance and response platform, Maintenance has the second highest demands the SGR-A1 can detect, track and engage targets up on our full time national servicemen after force to three kilometres away. Multiple sensors on the protection. The RSAF currently adopts Preventive SGR-A1 can alert human operators to respond and Maintenance where components or equipment warn potential attackers via its loudspeaker, track items are replaced or overhauled at a specific, pre- multiple targets and engage using non-lethal (Optical determined interval, regardless of their condition at distractors, rubber bullets) and lethal weaponry the time and complements it with certain elements (5.56mm machine gun, smoke/ grenade launcher). A of Predictive Maintenance. The replacement of single operator can control multiple sentries on one engine oil in a vehicular engine every 10,000km is console, greatly reducing manpower requirements and considered as Preventive Maintenance while the decreasing risks to human responders. The employment measurement the tyres tread depth is considered of robotic sentries will reduce the number of access as Predictive Maintenance. The disadvantage of control personnel. Preventive Maintenance is that it requires longer machine downtime and does not fully optimise the life of a machine part. On the other hand, Predictive Maintenance maximises equipment uptime and component life by scheduling repairs and overhauls only when the equipment itself highlights that this is needed, based on an assessment of equipment condition. Predictive Maintenance is highly dependent on operational data collected and transmitted by equipment sensors.13

The advent of big data and IOT will offer the capability to store and analyse a more complete

Figure 2: SGR-A112 picture of asset health, based on a more complete set of data drawn from a variety of sources. In Unmanned, robotics, AI and swarm technologies the current maintenance practice, data extracted take the human out of the loop and will further from dissimilar systems (process control systems, alleviate the intensive manpower demands force condition monitoring systems) have been stored and protection have on our full time national servicemen analysed independently of one another. Reducing cost population. These offer opportunities to optimise of electronics makes it even more cost effective to fit manpower and cost efficiencies for the RSAF in equipment with a range of more sophisticated sensors the long term. Reliance on unmanned and robotics and processors which can do more than just measure a may place greater demands on maintenance further simple parameter, but can also do additional analysis downstream. However, this can be alleviated through and diagnostics on the machine. When these sensors the application of predictive technologies such as big are connected back to a communications backbone, data analytics. this greatly increases the volume of data that is

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 64 available for analysis and enables real-time analysis This capability can certainly be applied for and monitoring of equipment health by comparing pre- and post-flight inspections in the RSAF. Using its current operational state to a model that defines pre-determined flight path that the UAV, equipped normal operating conditions. Predictive analytics with proximity sensors to maintain a safe stand-off then apply advanced algorithms to detect subtle distance from the aircraft, will autonomously fly operational variances for each piece of equipment to capture images of the entire aircraft on a ramp and warn of imminent issues (incipient and functional /hangar, it eliminates the need for an UAV operator failures) that might have been undetected. Big data and optimises manpower efficiency. Hard-to-reach and the IOT present a huge opportunity to improve areas on C-130 and KC-135 will now no longer require equipment reliability and optimise manpower and physical human inspection with the employment of 14 maintenance costs. UAV. This greatly reduces the time and manpower required for inspection, and also improves reliability Pre- and post-flight inspections are also labour- as it removes human judgement errors through data intensive. Pre-flight inspection is performed on the aircraft before every flight to certify safe and analytics. UAV provides many advantages when used functional operation of all aspects of the aircraft as in this application, such as its ability to stream and well as to detect defects that, if not corrected, would compare data in real time, access to challenging cause accidents or aborted missions. Post-flight locations and provide a cost effective and sustainable inspection is conducted after each flight to check approach to maintain high maintenance standards. for obvious defects (hydraulic, fuel and oil leakage Further enhancements such as piezoelectric transducer or structural damage) and to detect degradation that to identify internal damage can be retrofitted on UAVs may have occurred during the flight. for post-flight inspections.16

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have increasingly been employed in the civil engineering field to inspect buildings and bridges. It overcomes logistical challenges to efficiently and effectively inspect a wide variety of structural components in challenging locations. An UAV equipped with a wide range of imaging technologies such as still, video and infrared sensors can be used to capture a large number of images that will be wirelessly transferred to a central database and digitally reconstructed into a 3D model Figure 3: Flight Inspection by UAV 17 for analysis. By comparing an original 3D image of the building or bridge with the newly captured 3D image UTILISING MANPOWER RESOURCES MORE of the same structure, data analytics software will EFFICIENTLY be able to highlight any discrepancies (misalignment, surface degradation) and defects (cracks, dents, With the manpower savings in areas that tend to burnt marks caused by lightning strike). This helps to be manpower-intensive but rote and repetitive, the improve traceability and prevent catastrophic failure RSAF could potentially shift resources into areas from happening.15 that better tap into the skills and interests of its

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES FORCES ARMED SINGAPORE THE OF JOURNAL POINTER, explore 3 such programmes in Taiwan andIsrael. programmes 3such explore Below, we talents. STEM andutilise train identify, to programmes in developing emulate potentially can ways. transformative potentially in of4IR technologies use the optimise better can RSAF. the doing for so, By we 4IR technologies andharness develop that in vocations serve to able be would who fields STEM in the andexpertise skills important with soldiers andutilise train identify, organisation. ofour andRegulars) Servicemen National (both manpower limited the optimise to done be can more much direction, right in the step isa initiative this while But service. and productive meaningful amore have will they that likelihood the increase certainly will interests their fit that jobs The Talpiot Programme (Israel) Talpiot Programme The applications. of amongthousands from annually cadets 50 around programme The selects leaders. technological future its andtraining ofidentifying way tried-and-tested (SCDF). Force Defence Civil Singapore the andthe (SPF) Force Police Singapore SAF, the across vocations 33 of range a in interest express to able be would enlistees service national 2017 pre- November onwards, from that announced NgEngHen In2016, Minister Defence direction. this in moving begun already has SAF the Infact, people. features be assigned to a technological position in a unit, in aunit, position atechnological to assigned be would they months, 40 endofthe At the capabilities. oftechnological spectrum ofits gain anappreciation IDF to ofthe branches in different time spend then completing combat training. combat completing simultaneously while ofJerusalem University Hebrew in the science orcomputer mathematics physics, in adegree complete to programme a 40-month Ministry of Communications and Information Fortunately, there are other foreign militaries we militaries foreign other are there Fortunately, better to RSAF the for isimportant it In particular, Talpiot Programme is the Israel Defence Force’s (IDF) (IDF) Force’s Defence Israel isthe Talpiot Programme 19 These cadets subsequently undergo undergo subsequently cadets These 18 Matching pre-enlistees with with pre-enlistees Matching 20 The graduates would would graduates The Corps and serve 6 years of paid service. ofpaid 6years andserve Corps Intelligence orthe air force onthe anemphasis with into and the skills interests of people. its shift resources into areas that tap better and repetitive, the RSAF could potentially rote but manpower-intensive be to tend With the manpower savings in areas that mathematics andphysics. mathematics engineering, in particularly fields, STEM in degrees complete usually applicants These service. military to prior university andcomplete draft the defer to allowed are pre-enlistees selected programme, Atuda IDF. in the Academic the Under tracks academic (Israel) Programmes Atuda THE guided missile. guided Tammuz andthe anti-tank system Trophy defence tank the satellites, reconnaissance military Ofeq its shield, defence missile three-tiered ofIsrael’s development in the involved been have Talpiot graduates instance, For field. in the commanders ground as serving while IDF, the for even technologies revolutionary and even cutting-edge developed have many Talpiot graduates operate its most advanced systems. advanced most its operate and develop to units technical military’s in the serve often programmes two of these Graduates Regulars. as 3years another plus service national obligatory their of period the for andskills knowledge professional their utilise that IDF in positions the serve practical engineer diploma. engineer practical ora atechnician andreceive ofuniversities, instead colleges in technological oftraining years two to one provided are applicants selected programme, Atuda The Atuda programmes comprise two special special two comprise programmes Atuda The As a result of their education and experience, andexperience, education oftheir aresult As Subsequently, graduates from both programmes programmes both from graduates Subsequently, 22 23 24 Under the Technologic Technologic the Under 25

21 VOL.44 NO.2 VOL.44 65 features 66

The Defence Industry Reserve Duty System organisation. Existing scholarship schemes in military (Taiwan) science and R&D can be adjusted to accord them more The Republic of China Armed Forces’ Defence prominence. For instance, the Defence Science and Industry Reserve Duty System (DIRDS) enlists Taiwan Technology Agency (DSTA) Undergraduate Scholarship conscripts with advanced degrees, particularly in the and the DSO National Laboratories (DSO) Diploma sciences and engineering.26 These soldiers receive Scholarship could potentially allow awardees to defer three months of officer training and commission National Service for studies in the year of award, as as officers. They are subsequently employed for per the new SAF Engineering Scholarship. Further, four years in a government or academic research drawing inspiration from the Talpiot Programme, a institution often to conduct defence-related research new scheme can be introduced that combines military and development. Between 1980 and 2004, more than training with an undergraduate education in a STEM 12,000 individuals were selected for the programme field. Awardees can subsequently be given broad and subsequently supplied skilled labour for Taiwan’s exposure to the different technological capabilities defence industries.27 in the various branches of the SAF and given a technology-focused post in the SAF upon graduation. NEW PROGRAMMES FOR THE SAF

The examples above suggest that the Ministry of The SAF can also better tap into the STEM talents Defence (MINDEF) can explore new programmes that that our Full-time National Servicemen (NSFs) and can better identify, train and utilise our soldiers Operationally-Ready National Servicemen (NSmen) to optimise the use of 4IR technologies in our possess. For instance, similar to the new cyber defence MINDEF

Unmanned Watch Tower

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 features 67 vocation, new vocations in military technology war. These ideas can be categorised as ‘Big Innovation’, and R&D could be created for talented NSFs. They which the SAF does well in and results in fundamental could even potentially serve their national service changes in the policy, organisational structure, outside MINDEF, in DSTA or DSO Laboratories for concepts and capability development domains. instance, where they can best contribute to the SAF’s technological advancements. The same logic should On the other hand, ‘Small Innovation’ is at the also apply to our NSmen. Some could be revocated to core of our PRIDE (PRoductivity and Innovation in serve in areas that tap into their specialties based on Daily Effort) movement, established in 1981, that their line of work. They could, for instance, serve as promotes a culture of organisational excellence, engineers and technological consultants to advance innovation and productivity across MINDEF and the SAF. These innovations and work improvement ideas SAF’s interest in 4IR technologies. have consistently achieved savings of more than Innovation has always been at the heart $100 million per year. While the PRIDE movement has of the SAF’s bold and progressive efforts entrenched a culture of innovation in MINDEF and the SAF, more can be done to scale and proliferate these to develop our capabilities. innovations and work improvement ideas beyond the unit level and across the organisation to overcome ENTRENCHING GROUND-UP INNOVATION growing manpower and budget constraints as a result CULTURE of the increasing pace of change. Even as routine tasks are increasingly automised however, creative tasks will still require the input of The SAF must continue to grow the culture that humans to complete. Indeed, possibly the best way empowers every individual and encourage more the SAF can use utilise its manpower resources to ground-up innovation. One way to do so is to ensure contribute to a stronger organisation is by tapping that good ideas are not stifled by organisational into the innovation and creativity of our people. impediments such as procurement bureaucracy, stringent regulation, funding and incentivisation Innovation has always been at the heart of the gap. For example, a dedicated innovation office can SAF’s bold and progressive efforts to develop our be established to: (1) serve as a repository for ideas capabilities. In the past, innovative ideas were through networking; (2) facilitate ‘Make-a-thon’ surfaced and made significant impact in the SAF. by bringing together people with specific expertise In the manpower policy domain, the SAVER scheme (operations, logistics, technology, coding, etc.) to was introduced in 1998 to keep the SAF dynamic develop scalable blueprint for feasible solutions and the Military Domain Expert Scheme (MDES) through cross-domain collaboration; (3) drive was also introduced in 2009 to recruit, develop ‘sandbox’ testing by providing a sterile environment and retain able and committed people to build a for prototyping/concept development; and (4) ensure strong, capable and dynamic 3rd Generation SAF. In follow-through to implementation. Manpower policy the concepts, technology, people and organisational can also be revised to recognise ground innovation structure domains, the RSAF embarked on a massive efforts. These efforts reflect the organisation’s transformation effort from 2007 to become a highly unwavering interest to further entrench ground-up responsive 3rd generation force that is capable of innovation culture and stand the SAF in good stead to handling a full spectrum of missions from peace to tackle our future challenges.

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CONCLUSION 9. Carroll, Daniel M. Unmanned Ground Vehicles for Integrated Force Protection. San Diego, California, 01 04 The process of integrating new technologies 2004. into existing practices as well as nurturing the new 10. Allen, Christopher W. USAF Expeditionary Security capabilities brought forth by the 4IR will take years, Operations 2040: A Technology Vision for Deployed Air if not decades. A similar amount of time will be Base Defense Capabilities. Montomery, Alabama, 09 04 needed to develop preeminent programmes in the SAF 2014. for identifying, training and developing STEM talents 11. Bullock, Dave. Gallery: Inside the Navy's Armed-Robot and entrench ground-up innovation culture. It is thus Labs. 03 02 2008. pertinent that our organisation begins this process 12. Robotics Today. About robots, robot development and today so as to reap the fruits of transformation and those who make it happen. 2006. maximise our manpower resources. 13. Dunn, Sandy. Big Data, Predictive Analytics and Maintenance. 2017.

14. H.M. Hasemian, Wendell C. Bean. “State-of-the-Art ENDNOTES Predictive Maintenance Techniques.” IEEE Transactions 1. Ng, Jun Seng. Ng Eng Hen: SAF Must Do More With Less. on Instrumentation and Measurement, Vol. 60, No. 10, 10 2016. 2011: 3480-3492.

2. Denning, Steve. Understanding Disruption: Insights From 15. Lovelace, Barritt. Bridge Inspection Demonstation Project. Minnesota: (Minnesota Department of The History Of Business. 2014. Transportation, 2015). 3. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne. “The 16. Gabrin, Matthew. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles And Their Use Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to of Visual Imaging to Assess Civil Structures. Pittsburgh: computerisation?” (Oxford Martin School, 2013) (Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering, 2017). 4. (Automation and Anxiety, 2016), https://www. 17. Kenney, Regina. Top 4 Uses for Drones in Aircraft economist.com/news/special-report/21700758- Maintenance. 10 12 2015. will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment- automation-and-anxiety 18. Hio, Lester. Pre-enlistees entering national service from 2017 can indicate vocation of choice: Ng Eng Hen. 2016. 5. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to 19. Rhoads, Christopher. How an Elite Military School Feeds computerisation?” (Oxford Martin School, 2013) Israel's Tech Industry. 2017.

6. Sidoti, Sal. “Air Base Operability: A Study in Airbase 20. Kratz, Yaakov, and Amir Bohbot. The Weapon Wizards: Survivability and Post Attack Recovery.” In Air Base How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower. (New Operability: A Study in Airbase Survivability and Post York: St. Martin's Press, 2017). Attack Recovery, by Sal Sidoti, 5. RAAF Base Fairbain: 21. Kratz, Yaakov, and Amir Bohbot. The Weapon Wizards: Air Power Studies Centre, 1995. How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower. (New

7. Mokhtar, Faris. “'Smart' airbases on the cards as SAF York: St. Martin's Press, 2017). taps on tech amid manpower crunch.” 30 06 2016. 22. Mizrahi, Jennifer Laszlo. Israel’s Edge: The Story of the IDF’s Most Elite Unit – Talpiot. 2016. 8. Allen, Christopher W. USAF Expeditionary Security Operations 2040: A Technology Vision for Deployed Air 23. Kratz, Yaakov, and Amir Bohbot. The Weapon Wizards: Base Defense Capabilities. Montomery, Alabama, 09 04 How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower. (New 2014. York: St. Martin's Press, 2017).

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24. Atudah / Atudat Olim. 2015. https://www.idfi nfo.co.il/ 26. Liu, Pei-Yu. The Effect of National Defense Substitute programs/degree-programs/ Service on Enterprise From a Human Resources Perspective. 2008. 25. Kratz, Yaakov, and Amir Bohbot. The Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower. (New 27. CNA. Lu warns against China. 2004. York: St. Martin's Press, 2017).

LTC Nan Yik Mun is a UAV Pilot-IO(Air Int) by vocation and is currently a Branch Head in Specialist Staff Group, Air Operations Department (AOD). LTC Nan holds a Masters of Science in Management from the Nanyang Business School (NBS) under the SAF-NTU Continuing Education Masters Programme and was placed on the Nanyang Business School's Dean's List.

CPT Koh Tze Kia is a fi ghter pilot by vocation and is presently the Staff Offi cer of Fighter Operations Branch, AOD. He is a recipient of the SAF Merit Scholarship in 2009. He holds a Masters of Engineering (First Class Honours) in Aeronautical Engineering from the Imperial College London.

CPT Zech Tan E-an is the Staff Assistant to the Chief of Air Force. He graduated from Harvard University with a Masters of Arts in East Asian Studies and from the University of Pennsylvania with a Bachelors of Arts in Economics and Political Science. CPT Tan is a GBAD Offi cer by vocation and was previously a Detachment Commander in 160 SQN.

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Book Review

Neal Bascomb, The Winter Fortress: The Epic Mission to Sabotage Hitler’s Atomic Bomb, (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt), 2016, 400 pages.

By Jeria Kua

INTRODUCTION turned-commandos who endured some of the toughest physical What if the Nazis had beaten and mental conditions imaginable the Allies to the atomic bomb? With to fight for the freedom of their a weapon of such raw destructive power at their disposal, there is homeland. little doubt that the course of VEMORK human history would have been reshaped indelibly. Yet, few are The events of the book aware of the daring commando revolve around Norway’s raid on one of Nazi-occupied Ve m o r k in d u s t r ia l p l an t , a Norway’s top-secret industrial veritable castle fortress situated facilities during World War Two at the edge of the precipitous (WWII), which ended Hitler’s Måna River gorge on the outskirts atomic ambitions for good. In his of the town of Rjukan.1 Not only latest non-fiction work, New York was this imposing structure the Times best-selling author Neal world’s largest hydroelectric power Bascomb takes readers to the heart station at that time, it was also of the epic, tension-filled battle to the only source of heavy water—a foil the Nazis’ atomic programme key ingredient in the new field of against all odds. Based on an atomic fission research and the exhaustive trove of previously- construction of a nuclear weapon. classified documents, personal Realising the potential of this interviews, memoirs and diaries, new technology to turn the tide Bascomb blends his trademark of the war, both Allied and Axis fast-paced, cinematic writing scientists began scrambling to style with the gripping story of a unlock the secrets of the atom, ragtag group of Norwegian men- with the control of heavy water

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 book review 71 production at Vemork providing a Norwegian resistance movement of operations.4 The commandos significant strategic advantage. operating from Britain that was would thus be able to avail ultimately tasked with the mission themselves of his deep knowledge In a blow to the Allied effort, to destroy Vemork. Formed in of Vemork and connections with however, the Nazis launched a 1941, Kompani Linge comprised the local resistance members in surprise invasion of Norway and Norwegians from every walk of Norway to prepare for the eventual upon their success ratcheted life—young and old, rich and raid. up heavy water production and poor, with and without military fortified the facility. With an ever- experience—who had escaped to Several other key figures in the increasing flow of the ingredient Britain to attend special commando heavy water war are also introduced falling into the hands of the Nazis, training to perform raids and in the opening chapters, including the Allies decided that Vemork other unconventional missions Jomar Brun and Einar Skinnarland, had to be destroyed at all cost—a in Nazi-occupied Norway.2 Told who worked as inside agents in mission given to the commandos through the eyes of thirty-year Vemork to supply the Allies with from the Norwegian Independent old Knut Haukelid, we learn of the crucial intelligence, and Jens- Company No. 1 (renamed Kompani gruelling, merciless regime this Anton Poulsson, a commando Linge) under the British Special group of men voluntarily endured in charge of leading an advance Operations Executive (SOE). in order to weaken Hitler’s grip on party on a reconnaissance mission their homeland. After months of to prepare the site for the main Right from the start, Bascomb’s sabot age force. With such a diverse descriptive language and use of tough training, the fresh recruits cast, it is clear that this was no imagery vividly capture both the were sharpened into hardened simple mission. Like in a well- foreboding physical setting of fighters, ready to be deployed to oiled machine, each had his own Vemork and the tension of the their native soil when needed. crucial part to play in the grand atomic race in its early stages. scheme of things. Readers are thus Although his explanation of the Central to the running of the left in anticipation to discover physics behind the splitting of unit was Leif Tronstad, a scientist the atom is necessary to impress and professor of chemistry at the how their individual efforts would upon readers the significance Norwegian Institute of Technology interweave later to culminate in of destroying the heavy water who plotted against the Nazis the operation’s success. facility, he does so with clarity and from London. Having been SETBACK concision and does not detract responsible for the design and from the main narrative. However, construction of the heavy water For fear of causing widespread some basic background knowledge facility, he alerted the Allies of collateral damage, the British in physics would certainly come in Germany’s interest in the water authorities decided on a night useful. and the need to halt their access raid by 30 British Royal Engineers to it.3 Recognising Tronstad’s value (colloquially known as sappers) ASSEMBLING THE TEAM to the military, he was appointed to destroy Vemork instead of Delving into the story proper, to oversee Kompani Linge’s an aerial bombing attack on the Bascomb traces the roots of the training, planning and execution plant. Meanwhile, Poulsson and his

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 book review 72 team of three other Kompani Linge Rebecca/Eureka transponding and link up with the Grouse team commandos were parachuted into radar system failed to work, to conduct a combined assault.8 the Norwegian wilderness as part leaving the pilots virtually blind. However, they faced an even of Operation Grouse to gather Tragically, both gliders and one more daunting task than before— more intelligence, establish radio of the Halifax bombers crashed now aware of Allied interest in contact with London and facilitate and all the sappers were killed heavy water, the Germans further the sappers’ insertion to the either during the accident or reinforced Vemork’s fortifications target. For over a month, the men by the Germans when they were and brought several of Tronstad’s were forced to endure the biting discovered. inside agents in for interrogation cold and fierce snowstorms of and torture. Furthermore, Poulsson the Hardangervidda—a desolate, To the readers who followed and his team would have to 3,500-square mile plateau located the sappers through their arduous continue putting up in the wild 3,000 feet above sea level.5 training for the operation, the in the most extreme of conditions Carrying 560 pounds of equipment, futile, sudden and gruesome while evading the Nazis until the they navigated a distance of 135 deaths of these brave young men new Operation Gunnerside team miles on foot to their destination will no doubt come as a huge shock could make contact with them. at Rjukan, often having to pitch and resonate deeply. Moreover, tent out in the open or seek refuge Bascomb gives us a glimpse of the What follows is an incredible in small hunting cabins in the cruelty of the Nazis through the true story of survival as the Vidda while awaiting their orders.6 detailed depiction of the brutal, Grouse team would have to wait Finally, on 19th November, the merciless torture and execution for a further three months for sappers were given the green light of the captured sappers as part of the Gunnerside team to deploy to deploy. Operation Freshman was Hitler’s Commando Order, a stark into Norway, a true testament to 7 now underway. reminder of the horrors of war. their remarkable determination and grit. Having depleted their On the evening of 19th OPERATION GUNNERSIDE food supplies completely, the four November, 1942, two teams Despite the catastrophe of suffered constant hunger and had of 15 British sappers began Operation Freshman, or perhaps resorted to surviving primarily on their airborne assault mission because of it, Tronstad and a diet of moss, lichen and some on Vemork. Under the cover of the SOE high command were reindeer, which left them sickly darkness, they were transported in determined more than ever to shut and physically weak.9 On top of two Horsa gliders towed by Halifax down the heavy water production that, the psychological struggle bomber planes to their landing at Vemork. This time, a small was no less intense. Idling their zone in Norway. However, things group of Norwegian commandos time away in the ‘hunger and quickly began to fall apart. Poor from Kompani Linge would carry strain and wind and snow’ of the weather conditions had greatly out the sabotage. Comfortable ‘faceless, remorseless Vidda,’ the diminished visibility near the with navigating the winter men longed for the comfort of landing zone and created violent terrain, they would be dropped home, and seeds of doubt about turbulence. Furthermore, their into the mountains by parachute the success of their mission

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 book review 73 began to sow in their minds.10 The gruelling 280-mile trek, while the Rjukan in November 1943, despite failure of a scheduled Gunnerside remaining four remained in Norway promising otherwise to Tronstad.14 deployment in January which to continue their resistance Although it had caused many nearly cost the crew their lives only efforts against the Nazis.12 civilian casualties and failed to compounded their worries. Yet, deal any damage to the basement despite their suffering, the team Forming the climax of the heavy water production facility at stuck to their mission faithfully, book, this adrenaline-filled episode Vemork as Tronstad had predicted, continuing to maintain regular truly reads like a fast-paced the threat of continued air raids communication with London, which action thriller, packed with heart- which would incur heavy losses finally paid off. stopping, high-tension moments compelled the Nazis to abandon that leave readers on the edge, the plant for good. th On 17 February, 1943, the such as when one of the commandos Gunnerside team of six led by nearly fell during the climb, or The saboteurs, however, soon Joachim Rønneberg and second- when the team was unexpectedly uncovered a plan to transport the in-command Knut Haukelid discovered by a Norwegian worker plant’s heavy water production successfully landed in Norway and in the plant who co-operated with equipment along with all existing joined the Grouse team seven days them. Readers are also left in stocks of heavy water to Germany, later. On the night of 27th February, admiration of the extraordinary where a new plant could be they began their assault on skill, discipline and courage constructed.15 To deal the coup de Vemork. Descending into the steep displayed by the commandos grâce to the Nazis, a three-man Måna River gorge, they crossed despite it being their first proper team led by Haukelid was sent to the river through a frozen section mission as soldiers, a testament to destroy the cargo en route. They before successfully completing their countless hours of training had determined that the weakest a dangerous, harrowing climb and practice back in Britain under link in the journey was a shipment onto a railway track that lead the guidance of Tronstad. via the ferry SF Hydro over Lake directly to the plant. Stealthily, ø the team infiltrated the basement Tinnsj , and on the night of COUP DE GRÂCE th containing the heavy water 19 February, 1944, infiltrated electrolysis chambers and blew Although the sabotage mission it undetected and planted a them up with a series of timed was a resounding success, the timed explosive charge. Although explosive charges. Without firing Nazis, refusing to be fazed by they had specially timed the a single shot, they destroyed an the attack, undertook round-the- detonation to limit the number estimated six to seven hundred clock repair work on the plant of civilian casualties as far as kilogrammes of heavy water, and managed to resume heavy possible, the resulting explosion together with the equipment water production within a mere on the following day claimed the essential to its production— two months—a tremendous shock lives of 26 people.16 The hard- thought to have been enough to to the Allies.13 With a repeat fought heavy water war, however, cripple the Nazis’ supply for about commando raid out of the question, was finally over, along with the a year.11 Five of the commandos the Allies conducted a massive Nazis’ hopes of constructing an escaped to Sweden after a bombing raid of 140 aircraft on atomic bomb.

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CONCLUSION the end of the war, the saboteurs the sinking of the SF Hydro for continually played down their the rest of their lives. Bascomb roles in the Vemork raid and gave reminds us that beneath their “You have to fight for your freedom and for peace. You credit to the local population bold and tough exteriors, the have to fight for it every day, in Rjukan who had supported commandos were all human like to keep it. It’s like a glass their resistance efforts and any one of us who longed for boat; it’s easy to break. It’s borne the brunt of Nazi cruelty. happiness in the company of their easy to lose.” Their admirable actions indeed loved ones. Knowing that freedom - Joachim Rønneberg, leader offered us lessons in the values comes at a price, they chose to lay of Operation Gunnerside17 of dedication, selflessness and their lives down to achieve that humility. ideal regardless of the cost. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy for us to place the In addition, a recurring theme In conclusion, The Winter heroic deeds of the Norwegian in the book is the idea of sacrifice. Fortress is truly a riveting commandos in the context of the The doomed November raid by the glimpse into one of the most atomic race as one of the reasons British sappers alone claimed the daring, successful, but often for the failure of the Nazis’ atomic lives of the 30 brave young men and overlooked operations in WWII. programme, which could certainly their pilots, while the Norwegian Above all, it is an inspiring tale have turned the tide of the war. commandos were pushed to their of the indomitable fighting Yet, at the time of the sabotage physical limits, from the tough spirit, tenacity and loyalty of the operation, the nascent stage SOE training in Britain to the Norwegian people in their nation’s of nuclear science meant that tempestuous blizzards of the darkest hour. à the Kompani Linge men had no Norwegian Vidda. The tremendous knowledge of how their target at toll on their bodies, however, was ENDNOTES Vemork could possibly have been only one facet of the suffering 18 1. Neal Bascomb, The Winter of such value. Instead of seeking they had to endure. With their Fortress: The Epic Mission to to make history or chasing public work shrouded in secrecy, they Sabotage Hitler’s Atomic Bomb, recognition, they chose to fight were unable to do anything except (Boston: Houghton Mifflin only to weaken the German war bear the emotional pain in silence Harcourt), xviii. machine and bring the liberation when their friends and family of their homeland within closer were taken in for interrogation or 2. Ibid., 30. reach.19 It would perhaps have torture by the Nazis. Haukelid’s 3. Ibid., 23. taken the dropping of the first two father died in 1944 under Nazi 4. Ibid., 43. atomic bombs in human history captivity, while Tronstad was by the United States for them killed during a mission in Norway 5. Ibid., 87. to realise the full significance of in the final months of the war. 6. Ibid., 97. the actions. Moreover, in spite Furthermore, several of the men 7. Ibid., 120. of the numerous decorations and had to shoulder the guilt of having accolades showered upon them at killed innocent Norwegians during 8. Ibid., 118-119.

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9. Ibid., 145.

10. Ibid., 166. 11. Ibid., 221-222. 12. Ibid., 186. 13. Ibid., 242. 14. “1943: The Heroes of Telemark,” (Hydro, 2007), http://www. hydro.com/en/About-Hydro/ Our-history/1929---1945/1943- The-Heroes-of-Telemark/. 15. Neal Bascomb, The Winter Fortress: The Epic Mission to Sabotage Hitler’s Atomic Bomb, (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt), 277. 16. Ibid., 306. 17. Ibid., 322. 18. Ibid., 320. 19. Ibid., xviii.

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Marie Skłodowska Curie (1867-1934)

by Koo Yi Xian

INTRODUCTION for girls, where she graduated on the 12th June, 1883 with a gold Maria Salomea Skłodowska, medal. Throughout Marie’s early later known as Marie Skłodowska education, Marie was consistently C u r i e is w e l l k n ow n f o r h e r the star pupil in her class. contributions towards radioactivity, which is extensively used in Obtaining an advanced degree medicine even today. She is was the next goal for Maria. the first and only woman to be However, Maria was not able to awarded two Nobel Prizes and enrol for public universities as the only person to be awarded higher education was not available two Nobel prizes in two different for girls during that time in sciences.2 Her act of selflessness Poland. Together with her sister, “Life is not easy for any of us. was evidently seen throughout Bronisława, who also had the same But what of that? We must her life, as she believed in using problem, they decided to come up have perseverance and above all confidence in ourselves. We science for the betterment of with financial plans, to assist each must believe that we are gifted humanity, rather than for personal other in attaining their goals. for something and that this profit. Maria offered a bold suggestion— thing must be attained.” to subsidise Bronisława’s study 1 HARDSHIP DURING – Marie Curie fees by working, as the main EDUCATION & ADOLESCENCE hurdle in their lives at that point, Maria was born on 7th November, was the lack of money. Bronisława 1867, in Warsaw, currently known studied in a medical school in as Poland, which was then under Paris, which spanned a total of the rule of Russia. Both Maria’s five years, financially supported parents, Władysław Skłodowski and by Maria. Once Bronisława had Bronisława Boguska were teachers completed her studies, she would and she was their youngest child. returned the favour by working to support Maria’s educational needs. At the age of 10, Maria attended the boarding school of J. In November 1891, Maria was Sikorska, followed by a gymnasium finally able to live the dream that

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 Personality Profile 77 she had for several years, which pioneering physicist specialising Discovery of Polonium and was to pursue her desired course in magnetism and was also a Radium of study at the University of Paris. laboratory chief at the Municipal Pierre Curie became so It was then that Maria decided School of Industrial Physics and interested in Marie’s work, that to call herself Marie. Marie lived Chemistry in Paris. he decided to drop his work on a tough life—she scrimped and crystals and work alongside her restricted her finances as much Marie was eventually able to on the same research. From her as she could. With her meagre find a laboratory space at the research, she discovered that wardrobe, she barely kept herself Municipal School that had limited two uranium ores, pitchblende warm during the winter months. capabilities. After working and chalcolite, were much more Fainting spells were common together for some time, their radioactive than pure uranium because she was too engrossed in relationship grew and they were itself. Hence, she hypothesised her studies to eat. married in July 1895, after a that there is a potentiality for simple ceremony. In September the two minerals to contain small Through due diligence, Marie 1897, the Curies’ welcomed the amounts of other elements that completed her master’s degree in arrival of their first child, Irene. may be much more radioactive Physics in the summer of 1893. than uranium. A degree in Mathematics soon BREAKTHROUGH & followed. DISCOVERY To extract the radioactive Marie was always intrigued compound, a series of fractionating Before the completion of her 5 by the works of two other was done. In July 1898, the Curies Mathematics degree, the Society scientists, Wilhelm Roentgen, reached the conclusion that the for the Encouragement of National and Henri Becquerel. Roentgen uranium ores contained an element Industry had commissioned Marie discovered X-rays, while Becquerel that were more radioactive to conduct a study on the magnetic discovered the Becquerel rays.3 than the known elements. They properties of different steel. In The scientific community focused named this potentially new order to conduct the study, Marie their efforts on X-rays, neglecting element ‘polonium’, in honour of had to first find a laboratory where the Becquerel’s rays. The latter Marie’s country of birth. Later in she can carry out her work. This led had always fascinated Marie Curie. December 1898, another discovery Marie to new beginnings, leading Furthermore, as little research was was made in the compound, which the life of a scientist, working . 6 done, data was limited but Marie they named ‘radium’. with a colleague who would later was able to carry out experimental become her husband. At that time, the Curies were work on her own. very close to accomplishing the NEW BEGINNINGS & WORK Radioactivity greatest feat in a scientist’s career, LIFE In April 1898, her study that of placing a new element In the spring of 1894, Marie revealed that Becquerel Rays were in the Periodic Table.7 However, raised her need for a laboratory emitted by thorium compounds, the biggest task—to isolate the to a fellow physicist. Through like those of uranium. To describe miniscule amount of polonium this, Marie was then introduced this occurrence, she coined this and radium—was still ahead of to Pierre Curie, who was a phenomenon ‘radioactivity’.4 them. This was a crucial point, as

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 Personality Profile 78 it would provide evidence of the personal laboratory in which Marie June 1905, the Curies finally made existence of polonium and radium, could work as well. Fearing to the trip and Pierre delivered the as well as for the identification lose Pierre to Switzerland, French lectures. The award came with and properties of the elements. mathematician Henri Poincaré a sum of prize money, some of intervened and Pierre was given a which, they used to cover the In 1902, one decigramme position in a Sorbonne programme, expenses of treating pitchblende of pure radium chloride was that educated medical students and a paid laboratory assistant. finally extracted from a tonne of on the fundamentals of physics, Pierre’s contribution to science pitchblende.8 However, polonium chemistry and natural history. was finally acknowledged, when he was never successfully isolated was appointed to a professorship as it has a relatively short half- This new position was not alongside a laboratory—a complaint life. Furthermore, the concept without cost, as no laboratory was raised by Pierre—that would of radioactive decay was not provided and hence, the Curies be completed in 1906, at the developed at that time. With this continued to work at an old shed. Sorbonne. discovery being made known to Pierre’s teaching load doubled the public, the radium industry too, as he retained his position TRAGEDY AND CHANGE blossomed, and the Curies at the Municipal School as well, Unfortunately, on 19th April, conscientiously published the albeit with a salary increment. 1906, Pierre was killed in an processes they used to isolate Marie too, was appointed as a accident while crossing a road in a radium, without patenting any of lecturer at France’s best teachers’ rainstorm. The French government them, as it would require money training institution for women, offered to support Marie and her and time which they barely had the Sèvres school. Their health children with a state pension, but enough of. Furthermore, the Curies too, deteriorated due to the long- Marie turned this down as she felt were set on dedicating their lives term exposure to radiation, of that she was capable of supporting to scientific research alone, for which the dangers were not known herself and her children. the benefit of all humanity. Little then.10 did they know that radium would On May 1906, the University of RECOGNITION AND later become a big money maker. Paris offered Marie an unexpected DISAPPOINTMENT proposal—to take up Pierre’s Having a family, as well as Nobel Prize academic post. One of Pierre’s an expensive research project In December 1903, Henri wishes was to own a state of to conduct, Pierre sought a job Becquerel and both Curies, were the art laboratory. By taking up with better pay. However, he awarded the Nobel Prize for Pierre’s academic post, she hoped was not welcomed at the French physics, for their joint efforts. that she could one day fulfil one universities, due to his unusual However, the Curies were too ill of his wishes, as a tribute to his educational background.9 This and busy to travel to the award memory. To achieve this, Marie would soon change, when the ceremony that December. Nobel had to be more than just a teacher University of Geneva made an laureates were also required and researcher. She would have to offer that provided both Curies to present a lecture describing learn how to create a scientific with a good salary, as well as a the significance of their work. In institution.

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At that time, being able to 1914. Marie felt the need to serve Despite having theoretical build an entirely new institution her country. However, being a knowledge of X-rays at the from scratch independently, was middle-aged woman, her physical Sorbonne, practical knowledge a rare feat. Marie assembled capabilities were limited. She was absent. Hence, Marie taught a research staff, by using a in turn, served by utilising her herself and picked up knowledge in generous grant from an American expertise in radioactivity to help anatomy, operating and mechanics philanthropist in 1907. After in the war efforts. of a vehicle and learned how to some persuasion, the government- operate the Petite Curies herself, She realised that bullets funded University of Paris joined if required. Her first radiological and shrapnel embedded in the the private Pasteur foundation to assistant, was no other than her wounded soldiers’ bodies as well fund a Radium Institute. However, own daughter, Irene, who was well as broken bones, can be detected Marie’s new appointment at the educated in the fields of science. Sorbonne and the laboratory was by electromagnetic radiation of so laborious, she relinquished her X-rays, which could aid doctors During 1915, it became clear position at the Sèvres school, during removal or procedures that the Germans could not take which was taken over by her friend involving the bones. Marie Paris. Marie then proceeded to and colleague, Paul Langevin. persuaded the government to retrieve the gramme of radium authorise her to set up France’s from Bordeaux, and by using a Marie successfully isolated first military radiology centre. technique to collect radon, she pure radium metal in year Being the Director of the Red Cross sealed the radioactive product in 1910. Following this was the Radiology Service, she cajoled a thin glass tube, and delivered publication of her comprehensive money and cars out of wealthy them to military and civilian textbook, as well as securing the acquaintances. hospitals, which were then authority to set an international encased in platinum needles, and standard for radium emissions. Many hospitals in France already carefully positioned within the This standard was recognised had X-ray equipment. However, patient’s body, so that it would by the international scientific those machines are often far from most efficiently destroy diseased community, which named it the the battlefield and when soldiers tissue.11 While collecting these Curie. were transported for treatment, radioactive vapours, Marie used the soldier’s condition would have For her discovery of radium minimal protection to shield deteriorated. To enable swift and and polonium, Marie was awarded herself. a second Nobel Prize in chemistry efficient treatment of the soldiers, on 10th December, 1911. During technology had to be brought Multiple mobile x-ray stations that time, she was the world’s first closer to the soldiers. By late and stationary units were present, and only person to receive two October 1914, Marie developed the and so as to staff these stations, Nobel Prizes. first mobile radiology units. These Marie trained more personnel, units transported X-ray equipment and by 1916, she started training WORLD WAR I to the wounded at the war front, women as radiological assistants When Germany declared war and they were called ‘Petites in the operation of X-ray machines on France, on 2nd September, Curies.’ at the Radium Institute.

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Unaware of the effects of known as the Marie Curie Radium Geneva, she was diagnosed with a long term exposure to x-rays, Campaign. terminal illness, aplastic anaemia. both mother and daughter were She passed away at Sancellemoz, a In 1920, Curie alongside her th inadequately shielded from the sanatorium, on 4 July, 1934. Two colleagues, created the Curie radiation, while saving the lives days after her passing, she was Foundation, whose mission was to of countless soldiers. laid to rest in Sceaux, alongside provide resources for the scientific Pierre and her in-laws. Simultaneously, Marie also and medical divisions of the tried to sell her two Nobel medals Radium Institute. Over the next In 1995, the remains of both as well as other medals that two decades, the Curie Foundation Curies, were moved. She became were awarded over the years for became a major international force the first woman, to be entombed her contributions in Science to in the treatment of cancer. on her own merits, alongside her assist in war efforts. However, her husband, in France’s national The Institute also became mausoleum, the Pantheon. offer was declined by the French an international centre for the National Bank. To contribute to measurement of radium content CONCLUSION the war financially, Marie utilised in various products. Marie Marie Curie was a woman most of her Nobel prize money to believed that it was her personal who devoted her life to Science, buy war bonds. responsibility to provide this despite undergoing immense service, which was necessary On 11th November, 1918, the adversity and hardships. She for doctors and others who used war ended. However, Marie’s war endured through the hardest radium. efforts did not stop there. During of times, even if it meant going against the world. She was never the spring of 1919, radiology Directing the Curie Institute a person to put herself first but, courses were offered to a group of became the central task of her instead was a selfless woman, who American soldiers who remained life. Since science was becoming devoted herself to Science for the in France, while waiting for their specialised, she restructured the betterment of mankind. transport home. And by the fall of Radium Institute to function 1919, her laboratory at the Radium as an entire major laboratory, Institute was finally ready. committed to a single subject. ENDNOTES POST-WAR PERIOD DETERIORATING HEALTH 1. Brainy Quotes, “Marie Curie Quotes”, https://www. Marie too knew that Due to the prolonged brainyquote.com/quotes/marie_ laboratories and therapy centres exposure to radiation without curie_126077.html in the United States had much adequate protection, her health 2. A shared Nobel Prize in Physics, more radium than what she had deteriorated. Despite the attempts followed by a Nobel Prize in currently. Hence, it was her w ish to of specialists to diagnose Marie’s Chemistry be able to obtain a second gramme condition, the root cause was not 3. A ray emitted by a radioactive of radium for her laboratory. Soon discovered then. After undergoing substance — used before after, this sparked a campaign, a review of a medical expert from radioactive emissions were

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classified as alpha and beta and potentially harmful genetic particles and gamma-ray photons. changes Meriam-webster. https://www. 11. Radon is a radioactive gas merriam-webster.com/medical/ produced by radioactive decay of Becquerel%20ray radium 4. Radioactivity is the emission of ionising radiation or particles caused by the spontaneous disintegration of atomic nuclei.

5. Fractionation is a procedure whereby a mixture/compound is separated into its individual components. In this case, fractionation is carried out by dissolving the pitchblende in acid. This is possible due to the various solubility of individual components to different acids.

6. The name Radium originated from the Latin Word Radius, which meant ray

7. A table illustrating the periodic system, in which the chemical elements, formerly arranged in the order of their atomic weights and now according to their atomic numbers, are shown in related groups. Dictionary.com. http:// www.dictionary.com/browse/ periodic-table

8. One decigramme is equivalent to 0.1 gramme

9. Pierre’s early education was taught by private tutors which was then deem unorthodox

10. Some effects of radiation include: increased risk of cancer, cataracts

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Quotable Quotes

So, countries must be prepared for unexpected threats and crises. This is indeed the philosophy of every sovereign country, not just Singapore. -Goh Chok Tong (b. 1941), former Prime Minister and Emeritus Senior Minister of Singapore

In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way. -Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945), 32nd President of the United States

The soldier above all others prays for peace, for it is the soldier who must suffer and bear the deepest wounds and scars of war. -Douglas MacArthur (1880-1964), American fi ve-star general and Field Marshal of the Philippine Army

War is never a lasting solution for any problem. -A. P. J. Abdul Kalam (1931-2015), 11th President of India

My fi rst wish is to see this plague of mankind, war, banished from the earth. -George Washington (1732-1799), American politician and soldier who served as the fi rst President of the United States

If men can develop weapons that are so terrifying as to make the thought of global war include almost a sentence for suicide, you would think that man's intelligence and his comprehension... would include also his ability to fi nd a peaceful solution. -Dwight D. Eisenhower (1890-1969), American Politician and Army General who served as 34th President of the United States

There will one day spring from the brain of science a machine or force so fearful in its potentialities, so absolutely terrifying, that even man, the fi ghter, who will dare torture and death in order to infl ict torture and death, will be appalled, and so abandon war forever. -Thomas A. Edison (1847-1931), American inventor and businessman

We make war that we may live in peace. -Aristotle, (384-322 BC) Greek philosopher and scientist

It is an unfortunate fact that we can secure peace only by preparing for war. -John F. Kennedy (1917-1963), 35th President of the United States

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 quotable quotes 83

It is better to lead from behind and to put others in front, especially when you celebrate victory when nice things occur. You take the front line when there is danger. Then people will appreciate your leadership. -Nelson Mandela (1918-2013), First President of South Africa

Never forget that no military leader has ever become great without audacity. -Carl Von Clausewitz (1780-1831), Prussian General and military thinker

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it -George Santayana (1863-1952), Philosopher, essayist, poet and novelist

There comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must take it because conscience tells him it is right. -Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968), American civil rights activist

What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or in the holy name of liberty or democracy? -Mahatma Gandhi (1869-1948), father of the Indian Independence Movement

A change is brought about because ordinary people do extraordinary things. -Barack Obama (b. 1961), 44th President of the United States

The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existence. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvellous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery each day. -Albert Einstein (1879-1955), theoretical physicist

An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow fi eld. -Niels Bohrs (1885-1962), Danish physicist

We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us. –Winston Churchill (1874-1965), Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, military offi cer, historian, writer, artist and Nobel Prize winner in Literature.

Every day, think as you wake up, today I am fortunate to be alive, I have a precious human life, I am not going to waste it. I am going to use all my energies to develop myself, to expand my heart out to others; to achieve enlightenment for the benefi t of all beings. I am going to have kind thoughts towards others, I am not going to get angry or think badly about others. I am going to benefi t others as much as I can. -Dalai Lama (b.1935)

POINTER, JOURNAL OF THE SINGAPORE ARMED FORCES VOL.44 NO.2 Instructions for Authors

AIMS & SCOPE - Defence technology • the accuracy of the citations listed POINTER is the official journal of the - Warfighting and transformation • the legal right to publish any material Singapore Armed Forces. It is a non-profit, - Leadership submitted. quarterly publication that is circulated - Organisational Development to MINDEF/SAF officers and various - Conflict and Security Studies Endnotes foreign military and defence institutions. POINTER aims to engage, educate and As with all serious professional promote professional reading among SAF Book Reviews publications, sources used and borrowed officers, and encourage them to think POINTER accepts reviews of books under ideas in POINTER journal articles must all about, debate and discuss professional the SAF Professional Reading Programme be acknowledged to avoid plagiarism. military issues. and other suitable publications. 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