Forum on Understanding the Crisis

Ahmad El-Muhammady International Islamic University Malaysia

3 February 2017 Organized by: Institute of Advanced Islamic Studies (IAIS), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia : Geography and Politics اﻟﺠﻤﮭﻮرﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﻮرﯾﺔ Syrian Arab Republic Area : 185, 180 km2 Population: 17,064 million (estimate 2014) Multi-ethnic Arab 90.3%, Kurdish, Armenian, and other 9.7% Multi-religious Muslim 87% (official; includes Sunni 74% and Alawi, Ismaili, and Shia 13%), Christian 10% (includes Orthodox, Uniate, and Nestorian), Druze 3%, Jewish (few remaining in Damascus and Aleppo) Unitary state

• Syria is a unitary state, but for administrative purposes, it is divided into 14 governorates (muhafazat/muhafazah) 1. Al Hasakah 2. Al Ladhiqiyah (Latakia) 3. Al Qunaytirah 4. Ar Raqqah 5. As Suwayda’ 6. Dar'a 7. Dayr az Zawr 8. Dimashq (Damascus) Unitary state

9. Halab (Aleppo) 10. Hamah 11. Hims (Homs) 12. 13. Rif Dimashq (Damascus Countryside) 14. Tartus

• The govenorates are divided into 60 distructs (manatiq), which are futher divided into subdistrict (nawahi/nahia) • The nawahi contain villages, which are the smallest administrative units. Aleppo 3.562 million DAMASCUS (capital) 2.566 million Hims (Homs) 1.641 million Hamah 1.237 million Lattakia 781,000 From graffiti on the wall to civil war

”it’s your turn, Doctor” The detention and protest

The report of 15 schoolchildren were detained and tortured surfaced.

Led to massive protest

Government responded violently led to hundred deaths.

Local uprisings Regional factors

• Arab Springs in the region brought down regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and it spread across the region.

• Al-Qaeda in • Creation of Jabhah al-Nusrah

• Sectarian • Sunni versus Syiah Foreign intervention

• Intervention of foreign powers • • • • U.S. • Gulf states

• Basyar Assad’s view: intervention into a sovereign nation, domestic affairs of the . It is domestic problem. • Iran’s view: duty to protect Syrian government in the spirit of faith, expansion of sphere of influence.

• Russia’s view: traditional ally of Syria, the need to protect client state from falling into extremist group and pro-US government. Russia is an emerging power.

• US’ view: concern of the rise of extremist group in Syria and region. Assad needs to go. But no direct intervention, can’t afford to repeat Iraq and Afghanistan; employs “Containment Strategy”

• Gulf States: concerns of the expansion of Iran’s influence in the region. Funding the Sunni groups to fight. • Insurgents’ views: • and Syria (ISIS): protecting Sunni in Syria, revenge against Syiah government, establish “true Islamic State”

• Jabhah al-Nusra: al-Qaeda proxy. Protecting Sunni. Islamic state.

• Free : overthrow the regime. Considered by US as moderate.

• -Qasemm Soleimani: sectarian and political motives. • Civil war in Syria is not a straightforward case of conflict A versus B. • Multiple actors • Conflicting interests • Complex factors: cocktails of political, sectarian, religious, historical elements. • Unique terrains and locality Syria: theatre for geopolitical game

• Very unfortunate situation. • Syria become the theatre for geopolitical game of the regional and world powers. • Ordinary Syrians are the biggest victims. • Case in point: Aleppo. Where is Aleppo?

Urban warfare

• Civil war in Aleppo is example of urban warfare (UW) • combat conducted in urban areas such as towns and cities

• Urban warfare is fought differently from the open fight (conventional warfare) at both the operational and tactical level. • Complicating factors in urban warfare include the presence of civilians and the complexity of the urban terrain.

Actors on the ground in Aleppo

Syrian government Rebels Kurdish forces Syrian Arab Republic (Syrian Army) Coalitions: -People’s Protection Unit (YPG) + Russian and Iran - -Women’s Protection Unit (YPJ) -Jaysh Halab - Allied forces: - -Liwa al-Quds -Ansar al-Shariah -Hezbollah - -Popular Mobilization Forces -Liwa’ Fatemiyoun Units (16 units) -Ahrar al-Sham -Liwa’ Zaynabiyoun -Jaysh al-Sham -Baath Bridget - -Al-Tauhid Bridget -Syrian Social Nationalist Party -Fastaqim Union (SSNP) -Harat Nour al-Din al-Zinki -Army of Mujahiddin -Syrian Resistence -Syrian Turksman Bridget -Liwa’ al-Haqq -Al-Nusra Front -Jaysh al0Muhajirin wal Ansar -Harakat Fajr al-Sham al-Islamiyyah -Harakat Sham al-Islamiyah - in Syria Defeating enemies in UW settings

• Sending group troops is risky. • Group troops exposed to booby traps, sniper, ambush, IED attacks, etc. • High casualties, less effective.

• Aerial bombing • Surgical strike • Pulverize strategy (Battle of Grozny, Battle of Stalinigrad)

• More than 300,000 people have been killed and 11 million others displaced in almost six years of conflict. • The above strategy caused massive civilian casualties. Conclusion

• Political interest at the core of state’s foreign policy • High cost of human life and destruction of infrastructure • Spillover effect of the conflict in Syria and ISIS • The residual effects of the conflict: long term effects Be careful when you fight a monster, you may end up being one of them -F. Nietzsche