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Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East

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Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East an strategic dossier IRAN’S NETWORKS OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST published by The International Institute for Strategic Studies ARUNDEL HOUSE | 6 TEMPLE PLACE | LONDON | WC2R 2PG | UK 1 an strategic dossier IRAN’S NETWORKS OF INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST The International Institute for Strategic Studies ARUNDEL HOUSE | 6 TEMPLE PLACE | LONDON | WC2R 2PG | UK DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman This publication has been prepared by the Director-General and Chief Executive of the Institute and his staff. It incorporates commissioned contributions from recognised subject experts, which were reviewed by a range of experts in the field. The IISS would like to thank the various individuals who contributed their expertise to the compilation of this dossier. The responsibility for the contents is ours alone. The views expressed herein do not, and indeed cannot, represent a consensus of views among the worldwide membership of the Institute as a whole. First published November 2019 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. © 2019 The International Institute for Strategic Studies cover images: Top: Background: A Lebanese Hizbullah fighter near Arsal, Lebanon, 26 July 2017 (Anwar Amro/AFP/ Getty Images); main images, top–bottom: Popular Mobilisation Units fighters launch missiles targeting the village of Salmani, south of Mosul, in Iraq’s Nineva province, 30 October 2016 (Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images); Major- General Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attends a meeting between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (not pictured) and the IRGC in Tehran, 18 September 2016 (by Pool/Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images); Pro-government forces at a funeral ceremony at the Sayyida Zainab mosque in Damascus, Syria, 26 April 2017 (Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images) Printed and bound in the UK by Hobbs the Printers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN 978-0-86079-218-5 About The International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Staff of the Institute is international in composition and IISS work is international in its perspective and reach. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous fact-based research with a forward- looking policy orientation that can improve wider public understanding of international security problems and influence the development of sounder public policy, and more effective business decisions in the international arena. 2 AN IISS STRATEGIC DOSSIER CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 7 CHAPTER ONE Tehran’s strategic intent 11 CHAPTER TWO Lebanese Hizbullah 39 CHAPTER THREE Syria 85 CHAPTER FOUR Iraq 121 CHAPTER FIVE Yemen 159 CHAPTER SIX Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait 179 CONCLUSION 195 APPENDICES Key individuals 207 Iran-backed militias 213 Order organising the Syrian Local Defence Forces 216 INDEX 219 AN IISS STRATEGIC DOSSIER CONTENTS 3 COMMON ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY OF TERMS AAB Al-Ashtar Brigades KSS Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada AAH Asaib Ahl al-Haq KDP Kurdistan Democratic Party AQAP Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula LAF Lebanese Armed Forces EFP explosively formed penetrator LAFA Liwa Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas ESO External Service Organisation LB Liwa al-Baqir GCC Gulf Cooperation Council LDF Local Defence Forces HHN Harakat Hizbullah al-Nujaba NDF National Defence Forces IDF Israeli Defense Forces OIRAP Organisation for the Islamic Revolution in the Arabian Peninsula IED improvised explosive device PIJ Palestinian Islamic Jihad IFLB Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain PMU Popular Mobilisation Units INA Islamic National Alliance PUK Patriotic Union of Kurdistan IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps SCIRI Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution ISCI Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq in Iraq ISF Iraqi Security Forces SSRC Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria UAV uninhabited aerial vehicle JAM Jaish al-Mahdi UNIFIL United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon KH Kataib Hizbullah 4 COMMON ABBREVIATIONS AN IISS STRATEGIC DOSSIER GLOSSARY OF TERMS Artesh Abbreviation of ‘Artesh-e Jomhouri- Marja al-taqlid ‘Source of emulation’, a Twelver Shia ye Eslami-ye Iran’, or ‘Islamic Republic religious term for a jurist with the of Iran Army’. The common name highest-ranking religious authority. by which the regular army in Iran is The individual derives their author- known, as opposed to the Islamic ity from their adherents choosing to Revolutionary Guard Corps follow their religious explanations and interpretations rather than those of Ayatollah ‘Sign of God’, a Twelver Shia honorific another marja title predominantly used for high- ranking jurists who can command Modafean-e ‘Holy Shrine Defenders’, the title informal authority over fellow clerics Haram by which the Iranian state refers to and lay people those (mainly) Shia soldiers who have fought in Iraq and Syria against Sunni Fatwa A ruling issued by an Islamic jurist takfiri extremists and Syrian rebels in with recognised authority on a point defence of important Shia religious of Islamic law sites such as the Shrine of Sayyida Hojjat ol-Eslam ‘Proof of Islam’, a Twelver Shia honorific Zainab in Damascus title used for those jurists who are Sayyid Islamic title used by those who claim considered advanced in Islamic learning direct descendance from the Prophet but below the level of an Ayatollah Muhammad Khomeinism See ‘Velayat-e Faqih’ Takfiri A Muslim who accuses another Labayke ya ‘At your service, Zainab’, Arabic phrase Muslim of being an unbeliever (kafir), Zainab used on flags and branding of many e.g., ISIS members accusing Shia Shia militias with links to Iran. Zainab Muslims of not being Muslim refers to the granddaughter of the Velayat-e Faqih ‘Guardianship of the Jurist’, a Shia Prophet Muhammad, Sayyida Zainab, Islam political concept formulated whose tomb in Damascus is a highly by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini revered Shia pilgrimage site whereby an Islamic scholar/jurist is Mahvar-e/Jeb- ‘Axis/Front of Resistance’, term used the source of the state's supreme po- heh-ye Mogha- to group those states/actors who litical authority. In the Islamic Repub- vamat oppose a US military and Israeli pres- lic of Iran, this individual holds the ence in the Middle East constitutionally recognised position of ‘Supreme Leader’ Mahwar/Jabhat Arabic equivalent of Mahvar-e/ al-Muqawamah Jebheh-ye Moghavamat Wilayat al-Faqih Arabic equivalent of Velayat-e Faqih AN IISS STRATEGIC DOSSIER G LOSSARY OF TERMS 5 6 AN IISS STRATEGIC DOSSIER INTRODUCTION ‘We also have important capabilities outside of the country. We have supporters, we have strategic depth, both across the region and in this country. Some support us because of Islam, others because of the language, and others because of Shia Islam. They all constitute the country’s strategic depth.’1 Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2014 Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, an under- INTRODUCTION standing of the capabilities and strategic intent of Iran has been essential for the security and defence strate- gies of regional actors and global powers alike. This has in the past decade translated into a requirement for an understanding of Iran’s military capabilities. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has contributed to this understanding through Strategic Dossiers on Iran’s two most salient sover- eign capabilities: its ballistic-missile and nuclear programmes (published in 2008 and 2011, respectively). Both these subjects continue to be relevant, as tension between Iran and the United States and regional states continues to rise. Iran’s missile capability, both within its sovereign territory and through the missile systems operated by the partners it supports, continues to be a major consideration in any strategic calculation in Tehran, or Washington, of escalation. However, in the contemporary Middle East a third Iranian strategic capability is proving the determinant of strategic advantage: the ability to fight by, with and through third parties. This subject forms the basis of the third Iran dossier by the IISS: Iran’s Networks of Influence. Iran has possessed a form of this capability since 1979, but its potency and significance has risen sharply in the past decade, to the point where it has brought Iran more regional influence and status than either its nuclear or ballistic-missile programme. 7 T erminology The relationships between Iran and a number of IISS research has not found to be the case. There is non-state actors vary widely. Each has ideological, undoubtedly sufficient use made by Tehran of all the strategic, political and logistical dimensions. Some are relationships it has with regional non-state actors organic and structured; others opportunistic. for it to constitute a network of influence, but not to According to traditional definitions, a ‘proxy’ is suggest a more consolidated structure. the relatively weaker non-state actor that depends Significantly, Tehran has made no attempt to on a state sponsor for its power and relevance, formalise the status of any of these relationships or the and receives and carries out the preferences of network as a whole. There are no charters and treaties its ‘patron’. The term ‘proxy’ does not accurately and no formal agreements on the status of the various describe the variety of relationships Iran has with groups.
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