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Terrorism in Afghanistan: a Joint Threat Assessment

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Terrorism in Afghanistan: a Joint Threat Assessment Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment Introduction 7 Chapter I: Afghanistan’s Security Situation and Peace Process: Comparing U.S. and Russian Perspectives (Barnett R. Rubin) 9 Chapter II: Militant Terrorist Groups in, and Connected to, Afghanistan (Ekaterina Stepanova and Javid Ahmad) 24 Chapter III: Afghanistan in the Regional Security Interplay Context (Andrey Kazantsev and Thomas F. Lynch III) 41 Major Findings and Conclusions 67 Appendix A: Protecting Afghanistan’s Borders: U.S. and Russia to Lead in a Regional Counterterrorism Effort (George Gavrilis) 72 Appendix B: Arms Supplies for Afghan Militants and Terrorists (Vadim Kozyulin) 75 Appendix C: Terrorism Financing: Understanding Afghanistan’s Specifics (Konstantin Sorokin and Vladimir Ivanov) 79 Acronyms 83 Terrorism in Afghanistan Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan Working Group Experts: Javid Ahmad1 Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Sher Jan Ahmadzai Director, Center for Afghanistan Studies, University of Nebraska at Omaha Robert Finn Former Ambassador of the United States to Afghanistan George Gavrilis Fellow, Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion, University of California, Berkeley Andrey Kazantsev Director, Center for Central Asian and Afghan Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Kirill Koktysh Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Member, Expert Council, State Duma Committee of Nationalities Mikhail Konarovsky Former Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Afghanistan Col. (Ret.) Oleg V. Kulakov* Professor of Area Studies, Military University, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Vadim Kozyulin Member, PIR Center Executive Board Researcher, Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Thomas F. Lynch III2 Distinguished Research Fellow for South Asia and the Near East and Acting Director, Center for Strategic Research, Institute of National Strategic Studies, National Defense University 1 The Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan is an independent project, concep- tualized and implemented by the EastWest Institute. Javid Ahmad contributed to the Joint Working Group activities as an expert in his personal capacity. His writings are based upon his own research and analysis and do not represent the views of the Atlantic Council. 2 The writings of Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III are those based upon his own research and analysis and do not neces- sarily represent the official position of the U.S. Government, the U.S. Department of Defense or the National Defense University. 4 Barnett R. Rubin Director, Afghanistan-Pakistan Regional Program, Center on International Cooperation, New York University Ivan Safranchuk Senior Fellow, Institute for International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Denis Sokolov Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies Konstantin Sorokin Member of the Board, Eurasian Center for Comparative Studies Ekaterina Stepanova Head, Peace and Conflict Studies Unit, Primakov National Research Institute of the World Economy and International Relations Scott Worden Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, United States Institute of Peace Irina Zvyagelskaya Head, Center for Middle East Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of the World Economy and International Relations Project Director: Vladimir Ivanov Director, Russia and the United States Program, EastWest Institute Project Coordinator: Teresa Val Program Associate, Russia and the United States Program, EastWest Institute _ This publication was made possible in part by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors and contributors. * Deceased 5 Terrorism in Afghanistan Acknowledgements The EastWest Institute would like to dedicate this report to our dearly departed colleague and friend, Colonel (Ret.) Oleg V. Kulakov. His unparalleled knowledge and wit enriched our discussions, and he will be remembered fondly. We wish to express our deepest gratitude to the members of the Working Group, who generously gave their time and talents to this project; your commitment has been much appreciated. We would also like to thank the many experts and officials in the United States, Russia and other stakeholder countries who shared their insights and feedback on our work, including the following: James L. Creighton Distinguished Fellow, EastWest Institute Catherine Dale Senior Advisor, U.S. Army Futures Command Ramazan Daurov Head, Afghanistan Section, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Omar Nessar Senior Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Alexey Nosov Independent Consultant Igor Panarin Coordinator, CSTO Analytical Association Vladimir Sotnikov Senior Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Sudakov Corresponding Member, Academy of Military Sciences Joshua T. White Associate Professor of the Practice of South Asia Studies and Senior Fellow, Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asia Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies We are extremely grateful to several individuals at the EastWest Institute for their invaluable contributions to this project. Our sincerest appreciation goes to Ambassador Cameron Munter for guiding our discussions with diplomatic finesse and always finding the thread of commonality; Anna Renard-Koktysh for her help with coordinating logistics, research and photography for our meetings; Annie Cowan for her in-house expertise and trans-Atlantic assistance; Brita Achberger for her impeccable notetaking and logistical support; and Jack Strosser for his inestimable help during the publication process. Special thanks go to Henrietta Belaya for her effortless interpretation at all our convenings. Lastly, we are immensely grateful for the sponsorship of the Shelby Cullom Davis Trust, and in particular, Carnegie Corporation of New York, without whom this report and project would not have been possible. 6 Terrorism in Afghanistan Introduction This report aims to provide a clear-eyed assessment of terrorism and armed conflict in Afghanistan and related security threats for the United States, Russia and key stakeholder countries, approaching these issues with a cooperative outlook. The Project and dialogue to inform concrete and persuasive policy solutions is more critical than ever. Its Evolution Five years after the 2014 crisis in Ukraine, the Launched in October 2017, the EastWest United States and Russia remain at odds. The Institute’s (EWI) Joint U.S.-Russia Working initial fanfare following U.S. President Donald Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan has Trump’s election—with promises of improved sought to facilitate cooperative engagement bilateral relations—has since diminished as between the United States and Russia by ongoing allegations of election interference, providing a forum for constructive dialogue on continued sanctions and diplomatic joint counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan. expulsions, among other issues, have dogged prospects for progress. With the U.S.-Russia In contrast to the many issues currently Bilateral Presidential Commission suspended straining U.S.-Russia relations, since 2014, intergovernmental contact counterterrorism and Afghanistan have between the two countries remains episodic. generally stood out as two promising areas Unlike the immediate post-9/11 period of for bilateral cooperation. To that end, the bilateral counterterrorism coordination and project has pursued dual aims: 1) to highlight cooperation, including on Afghanistan, the the extent of the threat of violence posed by current state of policymaking in both countries militant terrorist groups in Afghanistan—not is driven primarily by geopolitical competition. just to the United States and Russia, but also to other regional and global actors; and 2) to As for Afghanistan, the dire state of its national identify avenues for future counterterrorism circumstances—exacerbated by deteriorating cooperation, with the intention to generate security and a struggling economy—has been positive momentum in the bilateral further complicated by the country’s uncertain relationship. politics. Violence, low voter turnout and fraud allegations marred the October 2018 The disintegrating state of U.S.-Russia parliamentary elections. Twice postponed, the relations and the ever-evolving, uncertain September 2019 presidential elections faced political and security context in Afghanistan similar hurdles with preliminary vote results have made this a challenging feat—but by the twice delayed. The outcome of the elections— same token, have made the Working Group’s securing a second term for incumbent discussions and deliberations especially President Ashraf Ghani—was immediately relevant. The need for frequent and sustained contested by his challenger Abdullah Abdullah; 7 however, a May 2020 power-sharing agreement conflict in Afghanistan and related security has since resolved the political deadlock. During threats for the United States, Russia and key the same period, U.S.-Taliban negotiations stakeholder countries, approaching these gathered momentum, and even though formal issues with a cooperative outlook. The Joint intra-Afghan talks have yet to begin, the broader Threat Assessment’s structure
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