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Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999

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Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999 Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999 Carlo Gallo London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2004 UMI Number: U192763 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U192763 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 m Library British Dtomry 01 Hotiaoa. and Economic Science Th e s e s f fOO f 2 Abstract Russian political parties remained weak and under-institutionalised in the 1990s, with profound implications for the viability of the country’s democratic project. This research is concerned with explaining one glaring sign of party under-development - the success of independent candidates in federal parliamentary elections. Its originality rests on focusing on the uneven geographic concentration of independents’ electoral success, given that existing accounts have confined themselves to the national, average picture. A second point of originality is the choice of multilevel modelling as the tool of quantitative analysis, applied here for the first time in post-communist electoral studies. The analysis relies on a macro-political explanatory framework where single­ member electoral districts provide the units of analysis, and where the dependent variable is the district vote share received by independent candidates. Explanatory factors apply at the level of both districts and federal units (regions). They include conflict in centre-regional relations, geographic conditions, candidates’ personal resources and the use of administrative resources by regional governors. The main finding confirms the hypothesis that the independents enjoyed a competitive advantage over parties in articulating the new territorial cleavages that emerged, after the collapse of the Soviet-system, as a consequence of state-building and federalisation processes. 3 Contents ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................................................2 FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPS................................................................................................................. 6 ACRONYMS...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Ru s s ia n political pa rties , electoral blo c s a n d associations ............................................................9 Ot h e r ......................................................................................................................................................................................9 A NOTE ON TRANSLITERATION.......................................................................................................... 10 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...........................................................................................................................11 1. INTRODUCTION: INDEPENDENTS, PARTIES AND DEMOCRACY........................14 1.1 Pa r ties , dem ocratic consolidation a n d feder al s t a b il it y ....................................................16 Parties and democratic consolidation .................................................................................... 17 Parties and federal stability ..................................................................................................... 21 1.2 R u ssia a n d the o ther pa rty sy stem s of the Th ird W a v e ......................................................... 23 Party system (under)institutionalisation .................................................................................25 Patterns of independents'proliferation in Russian SMDs.................................................... 28 1.3 R esearch d e s ig n...............................................................................................................................................41 C o n c l u sio n a n d p l a n of the t h e s is.....................................................................................................................43 2. RUSSIAN PARTY UNDERDEVELOPMENT: THE EXISTING LITERATURE 47 2.1 Ea r l y investigations : from description to explanation (1988-1993)..............................50 The causes o f the initial underdevelopment ............................................................................53 2.2 The unfolding of party politics (1995-1999): pessimists and optimists ...........................65 2.3 Territorial districts a n d territorial p o l it ic s ............................................................................ 71 C o n c l u sio n ....................................................................................................................................................................... 78 3. EXPLANATORY FRAMEWORK......................................................................................80 3.1 The m a in h ypothesis : territorial c lea v a g es a n d independents' COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE................................................................................................................................. 82 The independents' representation function.............................................................................85 What is a territorial cleavage and what is it in the Russian context? ..................................88 Contents 4 3.2 T he m oder ating effect of (pse u d o -) regionalist parties AND CENTRAL APPEASEMENT............................................................................................................................92 (Pseudo-)regionalist and interregional parties .....................................................................92 Central appeasement in response to regionalist demands....................................................94 Sub-regional assertiveness?.................................................................................................... 96 3.3 The "su pply s id e": n o ta bl e c a n d id a t es a n d pa r t y challengers ............................................98 Candidates' personal resources ...............................................................................................98 Party challenge....................................................................................................................... 100 Geographic accessibility o f regions ..................................................................................... 101 3.4 A dministrative r e so u r c e s .......................................................................................................................... 103 The governor's support o f Duma candidates ....................................................................... 103 Governor's control o f regional politics .................................................................................104 C o n c l u sio n .................................................................................... ;.............................................................................. 106 4. FROM HYPOTHESES TO DATA: OPERATIONALDEFINITIONS ..........................I ll 4.1 "Me a su r in g " regionalist assertiveness ............................................................................................ 113 Dowley's index .........................................................................................................................114 For a time-specific index........................................................................................................118 Corroborating the index .........................................................................................................122 Central appeasement..............................................................................................................128 4 .2 The su pply sid e of the electoral m a r k e t ......................................................................................... 131 Notable candidates ................................................................................................................. 132 Party challengers.................................................................................................................... 134 The electoral process and Governor's involvement .............................................................135 Urbanisation and Campaign access to districts ..................................................................137 C o n c l u s io n .....................................................................................................................................................................140 5. DESIGNING THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................142 5.1 The d e pen de n t v a r ia b l e : u n it of a n a l y sis a n d measurement .............................................
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