DOCSLIB.ORG

Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999 Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999 Carlo Gallo London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2004 2 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with me as its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 88,082 words. Abstract In the first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, independent candidates have proved remarkably successful in Russian parliamentary elections, more so than in other post-communist countries with comparable electoral systems. Existing explanations of the proliferation of the independents have been mostly cursorily and have focused on the national level, thus failing to address wide sub-national variations. This thesis presents a quantitative analysis of the sub-national variation in the proliferation of independent candidates in the first three Duma elections. A macro- political framework relies on aggregate data, with single-member districts constituting the units of analysis, in order to study how causal relationships vary across federal units. The phenomenon under study, i.e. independents’ success, is measured as the district vote share received collectively by non-partisans. Explanatory variables are measured at the level of federal units and electoral districts. Given that the data structure is hierarchical (i.e. districts are nested within regions) and that the proposed explanatory framework posits regional level effects, multi-level modelling provides the appropriate quantitative tool of analysis. The main findings include the positive impact of centre-regional conflicts on independents' success under institutional rules discouraging regionalist parties, and the growing importance of the political alignment of regional governors. 3 Contents FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPS ............................................................................................... 6 ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................ 9 RUSSIAN POLITICAL PARTIES, ELECTORAL BLOCS AND ASSOCIATIONS .............................. 9 OTHER .................................................................................................................................. 9 A NOTE ON TRANSLITERATION ......................................................................................... 10 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 11 1. INTRODUCTION: INDEPENDENTS, PARTIES AND DEMOCRACY ...................... 14 1.1 PARTIES, DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION AND FEDERAL STABILITY ......................... 16 Parties and democratic consolidation ................................................................. 17 Parties and federal stability ................................................................................. 20 1.2 RUSSIA AND THE OTHER PARTY SYSTEMS OF THE THIRD WAVE .............................. 22 Party system (under)institutionalisation .............................................................. 24 Patterns of independents' proliferation in Russian SMDs ................................... 27 1.3 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................... 40 CONCLUSION AND PLAN OF THE THESIS ............................................................................ 43 2. RUSSIAN PARTY UNDERDEVELOPMENT: THE EXISTING LITERATURE ....... 46 2.1 EARLY INVESTIGATIONS: FROM DESCRIPTION TO EXPLANATION (1988-1993) ........ 49 The causes of the initial underdevelopment ......................................................... 52 2.2 THE UNFOLDING OF PARTY POLITICS (1995-1999): PESSIMISTS AND OPTIMISTS ...... 64 2.3 TERRITORIAL DISTRICTS AND TERRITORIAL POLITICS .............................................. 69 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................... 77 3. EXPLANATORY FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................... 79 3.1 THE MAIN HYPOTHESIS: TERRITORIAL CLEAVAGES AND INDEPENDENTS' COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ....................................................................................... 81 The independents' representation function .......................................................... 83 Contents 4 What is a territorial cleavage and what is it in the Russian context? ................. 87 3.2 THE MODERATING EFFECT OF CENTRAL APPEASEMENT AND (PSEUDO-)REGIONALIST PARTIES ..................................................................................................................... 90 (Pseudo-)regionalist and interregional parties ................................................... 91 Central response to regionalist demands ............................................................ 92 Sub-regional assertiveness? ................................................................................ 94 3.3 THE "SUPPLY SIDE": NOTABLE CANDIDATES AND PARTY CHALLENGERS ................. 96 Candidates' personal resources ........................................................................... 96 Party challenge .................................................................................................... 98 Geographic accessibility of regions..................................................................... 98 3.4 ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCES ................................................................................ 100 The governor's support of Duma candidates ..................................................... 101 Governor's control of regional politics .............................................................. 101 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 103 4. FROM HYPOTHESES TO DATA: OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS ........................ 108 4.1 "MEASURING" REGIONALIST ASSERTIVENESS ........................................................ 110 Dowley's index ................................................................................................... 111 For a time-specific index ................................................................................... 114 Corroborating the index .................................................................................... 119 Central appeasement ......................................................................................... 124 4.2 THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ELECTORAL MARKET ...................................................... 128 Notable candidates ............................................................................................ 128 Party challengers ............................................................................................... 131 The electoral process and Governor's involvement ........................................... 132 Urbanisation and Campaign access to districts ................................................ 135 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 137 5. DESIGNING THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ................................................................. 138 5.1 THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE: UNIT OF ANALYSIS AND MEASUREMENT ................... 139 A) The district winner ........................................................................................ 142 B) Highest ranking ............................................................................................. 142 C) Average ranking ............................................................................................ 143 D) Total vote share ............................................................................................ 143 5.2 CASE SELECTION AND DATA STRUCTURE ............................................................... 145 Data structure: SMDs in regions ....................................................................... 146 Contents 5 SMDs socio-demographic characteristics ......................................................... 148 5.3 THE STUDY OF CONTEXT ......................................................................................... 150 Quantitative technique: Multilevel modelling ................................................... 152 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 158 6. THE 1993 DUMA ELECTIONS ....................................................................................... 160 6.1 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................... 161 The contestants .................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Russia: CHRONOLOGY DECEMBER 1993 to FEBRUARY 1995
    Issue Papers, Extended Responses and Country Fact Sheets file:///C:/Documents and Settings/brendelt/Desktop/temp rir/CHRONO... Français Home Contact Us Help Search canada.gc.ca Issue Papers, Extended Responses and Country Fact Sheets Home Issue Paper RUSSIA CHRONOLOGY DECEMBER 1993 TO FEBRUARY 1995 July 1995 Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Research Directorate of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada on the basis of publicly available information, analysis and comment. All sources are cited. This document is not, and does not purport to be, either exhaustive with regard to conditions in the country surveyed or conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. For further information on current developments, please contact the Research Directorate. Table of Contents GLOSSARY Political Organizations and Government Structures Political Leaders 1. INTRODUCTION 2. CHRONOLOGY 1993 1994 1995 3. APPENDICES TABLE 1: SEAT DISTRIBUTION IN THE STATE DUMA TABLE 2: REPUBLICS AND REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION MAP 1: RUSSIA 1 of 58 9/17/2013 9:13 AM Issue Papers, Extended Responses and Country Fact Sheets file:///C:/Documents and Settings/brendelt/Desktop/temp rir/CHRONO... MAP 2: THE NORTH CAUCASUS NOTES ON SELECTED SOURCES REFERENCES GLOSSARY Political Organizations and Government Structures [This glossary is included for easy reference to organizations which either appear more than once in the text of the chronology or which are known to have been formed in the period covered by the chronology. The list is not exhaustive.] All-Russia Democratic Alternative Party. Established in February 1995 by Grigorii Yavlinsky.( OMRI 15 Feb.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of the Electoral System on Post-Communist Party Development: the Case of the 1993 Russian Parliamentary Elections
    F~UTTERWORTH Electoral Studies, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 377-398 I'VE I N E M A N N Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0261-3794/95 $10.00+0.00 0261-3794(95)00001-1 The Impact of the Electoral System on Post-Communist Party Development: the Case of the 1993 Russian Parliamentary Elections ROBERT G MOSER Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin, Burdine 536, Austin, TX, 78712-1087, USA This paper uses a case study of the 1993 Russian parliamentary elections to explore the influence of proportional representation and plurality electoral systems on party formation in a post-communist regime. The mixed PR-plurality electoral system used by Russia in the 1993 elections is a particularly useful case for such analysis for it allows the simultane- ous study of these two electoral systems under the same set of social, economic, and cultural conditions. This study found that common empha- sis placed on the number of parties allowed by PR versus plurality systems is misplaced in the context of Russian politics. The vital impact of electoral systems under post-communist conditions is their permeability to indepen- dent candidates. PR systems tend to impose party labels on the electorate and elites and thus bolster the status of parties as electoral agents. Plurality systems allow independents to compete on a level playing field with parti- san candidates, robbing parties of the preferential treatment they need to get established in the initial years of democratic governance. Elections are the raison d'dtre of political parties.
    [Show full text]
  • Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies: Fact Or Fiction?*
    JOPO 021798arrf Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies: Fact or Fiction?* Arthur H. Miller, Gwyn Erb, William M. Reisinger, and Vicki L. Hesli The University of Iowa The political science literature reflects two viewpoints regarding the formation of party systems in post-Soviet societies. Scholars drawing on traditional theories of party formation usually argue that the formation of institutionalized party systems in post-Communist states will be an extended pro- cess. However, newer studies reveal that parties, partisan support, and even party systems may form relatively quickly. To illuminate this debate, we offer analysis of both mass and elite cross-temporal data from Russia, Ukraine, and Lithuania. These data reveal a rapid rise in partisanship, strong par- tisan voting in parliamentary elections, a sharp differentiation on issues between members of var- ious party blocs, a high degree of issue cohesion among those who identify with a given party, and a strong correlation between the policy views of elites and ordinary citizens identifying with the same party. In short, the evidence strongly supports the conclusion that party systems are develop- ing in the post-Soviet societies. Political parties have become a salient feature on the political landscape of most post-Communist countries. However, recent political science literature re- flects a divergence of views regarding the formation of these parties and their role in society and politics. At the root of this controversy lies a simple empir- ical question: Do the characteristics of the parties in these newly democratizing nations indicate the existence of a party system, or do parties remain rudimen- tary and undifferentiated groups cluttering the political scene? The principal de- bate is not a question of whether competing parties exist, but the extent to which they are institutionalized rather than inchoate.
    [Show full text]
  • Developments in Russia Research Paper 94/72
    Developments in Russia Research Paper 94/72 20 May 1994 This paper follows on from Research Paper 93/92 (The Crisis of Democracy in Russia and some International Implications) and looks at developments in Russia since the December elections and the adoption of the new constitution. Some implications for British foreign policy are discussed in Research Paper 94/26 (Redefining British Foreign and Defence Policy) and the Russian approach to the conflict in Bosnia is examined in Research Paper 94/62 (Bosnia: the ‘Sarajevo Formula’ Extended). Richard Ware International Affairs and Defence Section House of Commons Library Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Contents Page Introduction 1 I The Political Scene 2 A. Towards a new consensus? 2 B. How much depends personally on Yeltsin? 5 C. Presidential prospects 5 II The Economic Situation 6 A. Recent indicators and trends 6 B. Did reform fail in 1992-3? 9 C. Progress of privatisation 10 D. The IMF 11 III The New Constitution 13 A. The new constitution adopted 13 B. General principles 14 C. Presidential powers 14 D. States of emergency 15 E. Constitutional Court 16 IV The New Parliament 16 A. The old parliament 16 B. Structure of the new parliament 16 C. The electoral system 17 D. Deputies elected by proportional representation 17 E. First Past the Post election 19 F. Composition of the State Duma 20 G.
    [Show full text]
  • Is Russian Democracy Doomed? a Symposium
    TITLE: IS RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY DOOMED? A SYMPOSIUM Courtesy of the Journal of Democracy and The Johns Hopkins University Pres s THE NATIONAL COUNCI L FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEA N RESEARC H 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, N .W . Washington, D .C . 20036 COPYRIGH T This paper was not produced under Council contract. It has been volunteered to the Council for distribution unde r a limited release of copyright to the Council and th e United States Government for internal use an d reproduction, but not for publication or further release b y either. Its distribution by the Council to the Government is by permission of the Journalof Democracy and the JohnsHopkins UniversityPress . The paper is schedule d for publication in Vol. 5, No. 2, April 1994, of th e Journal. CONTENT S Editors' Introduction 3 Explaining the Vot e Michael McFaul 4 Toward Presidential Rul e Vladimir M. Lysenko 9 Instability and Fragmentation Peter Reddaway 1 3 A Return to Stability Alexander Tsipko 1 9 A Communist Setback Stephen Sestanovich 23 Zhirinovsky's Worl d John B. Dunlop 27 The Ascent of the Inflationists Vladimir Mau 32 The Politics of Resentment Charles H. Fairbanks, Jr 35 Is Russian Democracy Doomed ? When Russian president Boris Yeltsin's decision to dissolve the Russian Supreme Soviet led to an uprising that was suppressed b y military units in October 1993, the implications for the future of Russia n democracy were unclear. The resort to force on both sides of the conflict had brought the country to the verge of civil war and had se t a most dangerous precedent .
    [Show full text]
  • Guide to Further Reading
    Guide to Further Reading All the chapters in this volume are based, to varying extents, on the con­ temporary Russian press and periodical literature. A substantial selection of these sources is available in translation in the Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press (Columbus, Ohio, weekly) and in daily monitoring ser­ vices such as the American-based Foreign Broadcast Information Service and the BBC Summary of World Broadcasts. Detailed commentaries on current developments are available in the Research Report issued by Radio Liberty in Munich; a separate series of News Briefs is also issued on a daily basis (and is available, like many of these services, on-line). More extended scholarly commentaries are available in the journals that specialise in Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, among them Europe-Asia Studies (formerly Soviet Studies, eight issues annually), Slavic Review (quarterly), Russian Review (quarterly), Post-Soviet Affairs (formerly Soviet Economy, quarterly), the Soviet and Post-Soviet Review (formerly Soviet Union, quarterly), the Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics (formerly the Journal of Communist Studies, quarterly) and Com­ munist and Post-Communist Studies (formerly Studies in Comparative Communism, quarterly). A helpful collection of statistics is available in Ryan (1993), which includes data on the population and public opinion as well as housing, crime and the environment. Chapter 1 Introduction: From Communism to Democracy? There are several detailed assessments of the Gorbachev leadership and of the post-communist years that have followed it (see for instance Sakwa, 1990; Parker, 1991; White, 1993; and Miller, 1993). An early biography of Gorbachev is available in Medvedev (1988); see also Schmidt-Hauer (1986), Doder and Branson (1990), and Ruge (1991).
    [Show full text]
  • THE EMERGING POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM in RUSSIA: 1 Oqt:: 1 00") ~./Uv-~//~ the EMERGING POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM in RUSSIA: 1986-1992 By
    THE EMERGING POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM IN RUSSIA: 1 OQt::_1 00") ~./uv-~//~ THE EMERGING POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM IN RUSSIA: 1986-1992 By NEIL C. LEVINE A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts McMaster University © copyright by Neil C. Levine, August 1995 MASTER OF ARTS (1995) McMaster University (Political Science) Hamilton, Ontario TITLE: The Emerging Political Party System in Russia: 1986-1992 AUTHOR: Neil C. Levine, B.A. (Hons) McMaster University SUPERVISOR: Professor Peter J. Potichnyj NUMBER OF PAGES: vii, 176 ii Abstract This thesis investigates the emerging political party system in Russia, from the beginnings of pluraJism in 1986 through 1992. It does so in the context of the theoretical and methodological implications of the literature on transitions to democracy, and with reference to literature on political party systems. This thesis examines the beginnings of independent group activity, the groups' formation into movements and blocs and their participation in elections, and their evolution into proto-parties as the USSR collapsed and the Russian state gained independence and its own identity. The literature on transitions to democracy is agency-oriented, in that it places an emphasis on political parties in the transition process. While it is unclear--~------- at--- this----- rDoint - -- in--- time whether Russia is indeed undenwin{!v '-' a transition to democracy, proto-parties in Russia have played - and will continue to play - a key role in the transformation of Russia from Communism to post­ Communism. The future shape and structure of the Russian multi-party system is, however, difficult to predict, because of the nascent and immature nature of the system in the time period this paper examines.
    [Show full text]
  • Russian Parliamentary Election Law: Political Goals, Uncertainty
    TITLE: RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION LAW : Political Goals, Uncertainty, Institutional Context , and the Choice of an Electoral Syste m AUTHOR : Thomas F. Remington, Emory Universit y Steven S. Smith, University of Minnesot a THE NATIONAL COUNCI L FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEA N RESEARC H TITLE VIII PROGRA M 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, N .W . Washington, D .C . 20036 PROJECT INFORMATION : 1 CONTRACTOR : Emory University PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR : Thomas F . Remington et a l COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER : 808-1 5 DATE : April 10, 199 5 COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Individual researchers retain the copyright on work products derived from research funded b y Council Contract. The Council and the U.S. Government have the right to duplicate written reports and other materials submitted under Council Contract and to distribute such copies within th e Council and U.S. Government for their own use, and to draw upon such reports and materials for their own studies; but the Council and U.S. Government do not have the right to distribute, o r make such reports and materials available, outside the Council or U.S. Government without th e written consent of the authors, except as may be required under the provisions of the Freedom o f Information Act 5 U.S.C. 552, or other applicable law . The work leading to this report was supported in part by contract funds provided by the Nationa l Council for Soviet and East European Research, made available by the U. S. Department of State under Title VIII (the Soviet-Eastern European Research and Training Act of 1983, as amended) .
    [Show full text]
  • Summary Election Results for 20 Post-Communist States*
    Appendix A: Summary Election Results for 20 Post-Communist States* The tables contained in this Appendix include vote and seat totals for all parties that won seats and/or at least 5 per cent of the valid vote. Table A1 Albania: Kuvendi Popullor Party 1991 1992 Vote (%) SMD seats Vote (%) SMD seats PR seats All seats Workers'/ 56.17 169 25.57 6 32 38 Socialist Party Democratic 38.71 75 62.29 90 2 92 Party Omonia 0.73 5 National 0.28 1 Veterans Social 4.33 1 6 7 Democratic Party Human Rights 2.92 2 0 2 Party Republican 3.18 1 0 1 Party Other 4.11 0 1.71 0 0 0 All 100 250 100 100 40 140 * More detailed results can be found in the sources listed in Appendix B. 146 Appendix A 147 Table A1 (Continued) Party 1997 2001 SMD SMD PR All SMD SMD PR PR All vote seats seats seats vote seats vote seats seats (%) (%) (%) Socialist 52.75 79 22 101 43.89 73 41.51 0 73 Party Democratic 25.70 15 11 26 38.07 25 36.81 21 46 Party/Victory PD 2.99 0 5.09 6 6 Monarchist 3.20 0 2 2 Party Human 2.84 3 1 4 2.06 0 2.61 3 3 Rights Party Democratic 2.72 1 1 2 1.94 0 2.55 3 3 Alliance Soc Dem 2.49 9 1 10 3.53 0 3.64 4 4 Republican 2.41 0 1 1 Party Balli 2.35 0 1 1 Kombatar Christian 0.97 1 0 1 Democratic Party Agrarian 0.80 1 0 1 0.96 0 2.57 3 3 PUK 0.80 1 0 1 United N/A 2 0 2 Right Independents N/A 3 0 3 2.87 2 0 2 Other N/A 0 0 0 3.69 0 5.22 0 0 All 100 115 40 155 100 100 100 40 140 f-' (y)*" TableA2 Armenia: Azgayin Joghov .?; Party 1995 1999 ~ ;:,'" :=:- PR PR SMD All PR PR seats SMD SMD All seats ~.
    [Show full text]
  • Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999
    Russian Duma Elections in the Territorial Districts: Explaining Patterns of Proliferation of Independent Candidates, 1993-1999 Carlo Gallo London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2004 UMI Number: U192763 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U192763 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 m Library British Dtomry 01 Hotiaoa. and Economic Science Th e s e s f fOO f 2 Abstract Russian political parties remained weak and under-institutionalised in the 1990s, with profound implications for the viability of the country’s democratic project. This research is concerned with explaining one glaring sign of party under-development - the success of independent candidates in federal parliamentary elections. Its originality rests on focusing on the uneven geographic concentration of independents’ electoral success, given that existing accounts have confined themselves to the national, average picture. A second point of originality is the choice of multilevel modelling as the tool of quantitative analysis, applied here for the first time in post-communist electoral studies.
    [Show full text]