Issue Report

[Monthly Prospects]

Political Climate and Prospects for February 2020

￭ General Review of Government in January 2020

• President Moon’s approval rating decreases due to the coronavirus • The coronavirus outbreak impacts the approval rating of the DPK • The size of the progressive group decreases. whereas that of the centrist and conservative groups increases • The coronavirus pushes President Moon’s administration and the ruling party to respond to the health crisis

￭ An Analysis of Approval Ratings in Relation to Infectious Diseases During Previous Administrations • Cases of previous infectious diseases • An analysis of approval ratings during the MERS outbreak

￭ Main Events and Prospective Trends of February 2020 • Main events and notable matters in February 2020 • Expectations for the upcoming general elections amidst growing fears regarding the coronavirus outbreak

￭ 3 Main Points of the Political Climate in February 2020 1. Will fears regarding the coronavirus subside?

2. Who will act on the health crisis amidst the rise of conflicting interests regarding the recent reshuffling of state personnel? 3. What will be the decisions of those who are ‘cut-off’?

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[Monthly Prospects] Political Climate and Prospects for February 2020

￭ General Review of Government in January 2020

❏ President Moon’s Approval Rating Decreases Due to the Coronavirus ❍ President Moon’s approval rating was expected to increase following the passage of the prosecution reform bill in January that called for the further adjustment of investigative authority. - Such expectations became a reality during the second week of January, in which President Moon’s approval rating began showing signs of an upward trend.

❍ However, President Moon’s approval rating fell once again due to the controversy over the reshuffling of senior prosecutors and the outbreak of the coronavirus. (Source : Gallup Korea) - The outbreak of the coronavirus had a larger impact on President Moon’s approval rating as it is directly related to the lives of citizens.

❍ Approval ratings are expected to fluctuate due to the continuous spread of the coronavirus. - Approval ratings will inevitably decrease with the rise of issues regarding the quarantine measures against the coronavirus.

Positive Performance Evaluation of President Moon's Administration (5th Week of January, 2020) Negative (Source : Gallup Korea / Unit : %) 53 54 53 53 51 50 52 50 50 49 49 49 49 49 50 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 47 47 48 46 46 46 46 45 45 46 44 43 43 46 44 42 46 45 41 44 45 45 45 45 42 44 40 41 44 43 39 43 43 40 40 42 41 41 38

January Week 1, Major Incidents January Week 3, Major Incidents - 12/30 Passage of prosecution reform bill at the plenary session of the - 01/13 Passage of bills on the readjustment of investigative authorities National Assembly and kindergartens at the plenary session of the National Assembly - 01/02 President Moon appoints Choo Mi-ae as justice minister - 01/14 President Moon’s New Year’s Press Conference / Inauguration of - 01/05 Establishment of the New Conservative Party Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun - 01/16 Announcement of real estate measures regarding loans and property taxes - 01/19 Former Bareunmirae Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo arrives in South Korea January Week 2, Major Incidents - 01/05 LKP withdraws filibuster January Week 4, Major Incidents President Moon reshuffles staff of the presidential office - 01/20 First confirmed case of coronavirus in South Korea - 01/06 President Moon’s New Year’s Address - 01/21 South Korea decides to send troops to Hormuz Strait - 01/08 Ministry of Justice reshuffles senior prosecutors January Week 5, Major Incidents - 01/09 Establishment of the ‘Innovation and Integration Committee - 01/29 Indictment of prosecutors involved in the prosecutorial (IIC)’ by the LKP and the New Conservative Party investigations of former Ulsan City Mayor Kim Gi-hyeon - 01/12 Establishment of the New Alternative Party - 01/30 WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern - 01/31 First evacuation plane carrying South Koreans arrives in Seoul from Wuhan - 02/01 Second evacuation plane carrying South Koreans arrives in Seoul from Wuhan

_ The coronavirus ❏ The Coronavirus Outbreak Impacts the Approval Rating of the DPK outbreak is viewed to have had a ❍ Fears against the global spread of the coronavirus negatively impacts the approval rating significant impact of the DPK in January. on President - The DPK’s approval rating hits a record low of 34% in recent years. (Source : Gallup Moon’s approval Korea) rating as it is

directly related to ❍ the lives of citizens. The LKP’s approval rating fails to rise despite the negative evaluations toward President _ The LKP’s approval Moon’s administration and the DPK. rating fails to rise - The LKP’s approval rating halts at 21% even while public opinion toward President despite the Moon’s administration and the ruling party remain negative. negative - The Non-Partisan Party experiences a rapid increase in its approval rating, which evaluations toward President Moon’s shows that supporters of the DPK have shifted to the Non-Partisan Party instead administration and of the LKP. the DPK. - Whereas, the Bareunmirae Party’s approval rating falls from 5% to 2%, after its former leader, Yoo Seong-min, moved to the New Conservative Party.

Party Approval Ratings (5th Week of January, 2020) (Source : Gallup Korea / Unit : %) 50 40 40 40 41 41 40 40 41 40 40 40 42 40 39 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 38 37 39 40 36 34 26 26 26 27 27 27 26 27 30 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 33 23 23 23 24 21 23 24 20 23 24 23 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 21 21 21 23 22 20 19 20 19 20 18 20 20 21 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 10 4 3 3 2 -

DPK LKP Bareunmirae Non-Partisan

❍ Fears against the coronavirus are expected to remain throughout February, which raises possibilities for the approval rating of the DPK to decrease or remain stagnant.

❍ Although the LKP’s approval rating is failing to rise despite the growing negative sentiments toward the DPK, the integrated conservative bloc is expected to secure an increase in approval rating depending on its performance. - However, it can be predicted that the integrated conservative bloc will only consist of the LKP and the New Conservative Party, limiting the chances for an increase in its approval rating due to well- established public opinions of the two parties.

_ As a result of the ❏ The Size of the Progressive Group Decreases, Whereas that of the progressives switching to the Centrist and Conservative Groups Increases centrist group, the ❍ The number of progressives that remained stable at 30% after the ‘Cho Kuk Scandal’ is size of the centrist disrupted by the outbreak of the coronavirus. group increased to - As of the 5th week of January, the size of the progressive group reduced to 26% 31%. - This has been (Source: Gallup Korea) analyzed to have been caused by the ❍ As a result of the progressives switching to the centrist group, the size of the centrist failure of early group increased to 31%. prevention of - This has been analyzed to have been caused by the failure of early prevention of Chinese citizens Chinese citizens from entering the Korean peninsula in addition to the spread of from entering the Korean peninsula in the coronavirus. addition to the spread of the ❍ The number of conservatives slightly increased, which is seen as a result of individuals coronavirus. uncertain of their political ideologies, joining the conservative group. - It has been analyzed that the oppositions toward the reshuffling of senior

prosecutors have prompted the creation of an integrated conservative bloc. - However, it should be noted that the integration of conservative parties (28%) is not leading to a greater level of support for the LKP (21%). - Attention will be given to whether the integration of the LKP and the New Conservative Party into the conservative bloc will receive support due to the existing differences between the two parties.

Subjective Political Ideologies (5th Week of January, 2020) (Source : Gallup Korea / Unit : %) 34 33 31 31 32 31 32 31 32 31 30 30 3131 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 29 29 28 29 31 28 28 27 27 30 28 28 29 30 27 26 27 29 28 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 26 28 27 27 26 26 24 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 24 22 23 24 24 23 23 20 22

Conservatives Centrists Progressives

❍ The trends experienced by the centrist group are likely to continue as fears against the coronavirus will remain prevalent throughout February. - Establishment of the integrated conservative bloc amidst growing national concerns toward the coronavirus is expected to have limited influence on the conservatives.

❏ The Coronavirus Pushes President Moon’s Administration and the Ruling Party to Respond to the Health Crisis ❍ The main agenda/issues of January 2020 have been categorized based on their degree of influence on state administration as shown below. - The content in the second row includes the agenda/issues that changed compared to what was initially expected. - The content in the third row and next to the asterisk includes additional agenda/issues.

Positive Agenda/Issue Neutral Agenda/Issue Negative Agenda/Issue Passage of investigative authority Trends regarding integrated Trial of former Justice Minister Cho revision bill at the National conservative bloc Kuk and his family Assembly Former Bareunmirae Chairman Ahn Prosecutorial investigations for National Assembly’s approval of Prime Cheol-soo’s movement after arrival Cheong Wa Dae’s alleged election Minister nominee Chung Sye-kyun in South Korea meddling President Moon’s New Year’s Address ➡ Supreme Court ruling of Gyeonggi Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae’s Possibilities for North Korean Governor Lee Jae-myung reshuffling of senior prosecutors provocations Second court ruling of Gyeongsang ➡ Governor Kim Kyoung-soo Final trial of former president Lee

Myung-bak

First trial of those involved in judicial power abuse *Controversy over Justice Minister *President Moon’s New Year’s press Choo Mi-ae’s reshuffling of senior

conference prosecutors *Coronavirus outbreak

❍ The passage of the prosecution and investigative authority revision bills raised expectations on greater national support toward President Moon’s efforts for prosecutorial reform. - However, the controversies over Yoon Seok-yeol and the reshuffling of senior prosecutors had a negative impact on the political climate in January by shifting attention from the prosecutorial reform to Cheong Wa Dae’s alleged election meddling. - President Moon’s New Year’s address and press conference were categorized as neutral agenda/issues due to their limited influence.

❍ Growing concerns regarding the spread of the coronavirus had a negative impact on the DPK by worsening the negative sentiments surrounding the party. - Negative evaluations of a party are inevitable during times of crisis such as this, as long as the number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus continues to rise. - Negative public opinions toward the ruling party strengthened primarily due to President Moon’s sluggish response to the crisis regarding the ban on possible carriers of the coronavirus, in comparison to the measures taken by Europe and the US.

￭ An Analysis of How the Government Handled the Spread of Infectious Diseases Previously

❏ Cases of Previous Infectious Diseases ❍ The continuous outbreak of infectious diseases such as SARS, MERS and the novel coronavirus are raising concerns globally.

❍ The status of recent outbreaks of infectious diseases is shown below. Date of Affected Confirmed Fatality Likelihood of Type Duration Origin Outbreak Countries Cases Rate Infection 17 countries in SARS (Severe Acute total including November Approximately Guangdong, Respiratory Hong Kong 8,273 9.6% Strong 2002 7 months China Syndrome) *South Korea not included Approximately 24 countries in MERS (Middle East 3 years total, mostly in Respiratory April 2012 Saudi Arabia 1,084 40% Low (intermittent Middle Eastern Syndrome) spread) region

Approximately MERS (Korea) May 2015 Saudi Arabia - 186 20% Low 7 months

SARS > 27 countries in Novel Coronavirus December Novel ? Wuhan, China total 17,486* 2%* (Global) 2019 Coronavirus (as of now) > MERS SARS > Novel Coronavirus January Novel ? Wuhan, China - 15 0%* (Korea) 2020 Coronavirus > MERS Source : Wikipedia / *Statistics regarding novel coronavirus updated February 3, 2020

❍ While South Korea was not affected by SARS, the country experienced the MERS outbreak in May of 2015, recording 186 confirmed cases and a 20% fatality rate. - A 68-year-old male who visited Bahrain on May 20, 2015 report the first confirmed case in South Korea. By June 4, 2015, 186 people were infected and 38 were deceased.

❍ Although the number of confirmed cases remained stagnant after June 4, 2015, the government made an official statement on the termination of the MERS outbreak on December 23, 2015 due to prevailing concerns regarding the spread of the virus.

❍ Likewise, the novel coronavirus is expected to spread only at the beginning of its outbreak, while it will take an extended period of time for an official statement regarding the termination of the situation to be made. - In contrast to MERS, since the novel coronavirus originated from a neighboring country, it would be difficult for the South Korean government to declare an end to the outbreak unless China does so first.

_ Although the MERS ❏ An Analysis of Approval Ratings During the MERS Outbreak outbreak clearly ❍ Evaluations toward state administration before and after May 20, 2015 revealed that had an impact on state affairs, it can the number of positive evaluations decreased immediately after the MERS outbreak. be analyzed that (Source : Gallup Korea) the negative - Positive evaluations were at 39%, 32%, 33%, for May, June, and July, respectively. evaluations toward - It can be asserted that the outbreak of infectious diseases such as MERS has a the state negative impact on the administration’s approval rating. administration

were largely influenced by ❍ Considering that the positive evaluations toward state administration remained at political reasons. around 30% in January, the outbreak of the virus did not have a significant impact on such evaluations.

❍ At the time, former President Park Geun-hye faced extreme public backlash against the ‘Jeong Yoon-hoe scandal.’ - On November 28, 2014, Segye Times released an article titled ‘Jeong Yoon-hoe’s Intervention in State Affairs is True.’ Following this article, numerous reports on issues regarding internal power struggles were made, which involved Park Geun- hye’s top aides including Jeong Yoon-hoe and Park Ji-man. - The MERS outbreak in addition to such scandals seemed to have been the main reasons behind the fall of Park Geun-hye’s approval rating. - Confirmed cases of MERS were reported from May 20 to June 4.

Performance Evaluation of Former President Park Geun-hye's Administration, 2015 (Source : Gallup Korea / Unit : %) 61 70 57 58 58 53 53 53 60 50 50 48 47 50 44 46 50 45 40 43 44 30 41 44 41 43 40 38 37 39 37 20 33 31 32 33

Positive Negative

❍ Concerns regarding the MERS outbreak started to weaken in August, causing approval ratings to increase to 50% in September. - Although the MERS outbreak had an impact on presidential approval ratings, an increase in positive evaluations toward the state administration was primarily due to political reasons. - In other words, the reason behind the rise in positive evaluations was due to the integration of supporters of the ruling party after the termination of the ‘Jeong Yoon-hoe scandal.’

❍ When observing the party approval ratings during the MERS outbreak, it can be concluded that the then ruling Saenuri Party’s approval rating was barely impacted by the health crisis. - The approval rating of the Saenuri Party was at 42% in May and remained at 40% from June onwards.

Party Approval Ratings, 2015 (Source : Gallup Korea / Unit : %) 50 44 45 41 42 42 41 42 42 41 40 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 33 33 33 33 33 35 32 32 32 30 30 30 31 29 28 28 30

25 28 27 26 20 24 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 20 21 15

Saenuri New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) Non-Partisan

❍ Although the MERS outbreak did have a negative impact on the ruling party, it can be _ The ruling party analyzed that it did not have a significant impact on the presidential and party approval argues that the ratings. decrease in its approval ratings - The reason behind the increase in negative evaluations toward the state should be administration was the ‘Jeong Yoon-hoe scandal,’ which did not only have a attributed to the political influence on state affairs. recent ❍ The situation involving the novel coronavirus is determined to be similar to that of MERS. controversies surrounding - In the short run, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus itself will inevitably have prosecutorial a negative impact on President Moon’s administration. reform instead of - However, it is difficult to say that there will be a decrease in positive evaluations the novel regarding the state administration throughout the outbreak of the novel coronavirus coronavirus. outbreak. - The controversies surrounding prosecutorial reform are regarded to have a greater influence on declining both presidential and party approval ratings.

❍ The ruling party argues that the decrease in its approval ratings should be attributed to the recent controversies surrounding prosecutorial reform instead of the novel coronavirus outbreak. - The same applies to the opposition party, which emphasizes the need to give a greater focus on the controversies related to prosecutorial reform over the spread of the novel coronavirus.

￭ Main Events and Trend Forecast for February 2020

❏ Main Events and Notable Matters in February 2020

3(Mon) 4(Tues) 5(Wed) 6(Thurs) 7(Fri) 8(Sat)/9(Sun)

• Launch of preparatory committee for newly •Launch of Future Korea (09)Ahn Cheol-soo holds integrated conservative Iowa caucus results for Entry ban on foreigners Party initiators’ meeting Main bloc 2020 US presidential from Hubei Province in (09)Screening of democratic Events • Bank of Korea elections effect candidates for upcoming announces balance of general elections(~13) payments for December

Notable •Peak spread of novel coronavirus / •Possibility for talks to take place between Hwang Kyo-ahn and Yoo Seung-min / •Survey on the suitability of current members of Matters the LKP for upcoming general elections

10(Mon) 11(Tues) 12(Wed) 13(Thurs) 14(Fri) 15(Sat)/16(Sun)

Provision of subsidies •Holding of provisional New Hampshire Republic by National Election (15)General Elections D-100 Main session of the National primary for 2020 US Commission (Early Events Assembly (Tentative) presidential elections distributions since the (semi-closed primary) 15th is a Saturday) Notable •Peak spread of novel coronavirus / •Announcement of cuts for current LKP members (Expected) Matters

17(Mon) 18(Tues) 19(Wed) 20(Thurs) 21(Fri) 22(Sat)/23(Sun)

•Establishment of newly Main integrated conservative Events bloc (Tentative)

Notable •Announcement of cuts for Democratic candidates (Expected) Matters

24(Mon) 25(Tues) 26(Wed) 27(Thurs) 28(Fri) 29(Sat)/3.1(Sun)

General Elections D-49: •Meeting for monetary (01) Launch of Ahn Cheol-soo’s •2.28 Anniversary of Main Overseas voter registration policy decision-making new political party democratic Events application (01) 101st anniversary of the movement Declaration of Independence

Notable •Start of democratic primary for upcoming general elections (Expected) Matters

※ Overseas events are recorded in local time ※ Provisional session of the National Assembly and the confirmation of electoral districts expected to take place in February ※ New election rules to be in full effect for all political parties in February (such as rules related to the Democratic primary) ※ Supreme Court ruling of Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung and court ruling of Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kyoung-soo expected to take place in February ※ Super Tuesday to be held on March 3rd for 2020 US presidential elections (delegates from 15 democratic states and 14 republican states to be elected)

❏ Expectations for the Upcoming General Elections Amidst Growing Fears

_ The outbreak of the Regarding the Coronavirus Outbreak novel coronavirus ❍ The spread of the novel coronavirus is expected to be the focus of February. will be the main - As much as the coronavirus outbreak is of national concern, the media and focus of February as political parties are to show greater interests in dealing with the health crisis. it will stir a great amount of - A great amount of attention is expected to be given to the situation in China attention nationally regarding the nation’s confirmed cases. and globally, in addition to ❍ Political parties are expected to actively launch their political campaigns as imposing a negative they approach the April 15 general elections, in which they will receive keen impact on state attention, especially regarding the cooperation between parties and the results administration. of primary elections.

❍ The 20-day target for the launch of the new, integrated conservative party will receive a significant amount of national interest, especially regarding the party’s representatives and directions. - Attention will be given to the approval rating of the newly integrated conservative party. - The approval rating of former Bareunmirae Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party will also draw close attention.

Positive Agenda/Issue Neutral Agenda/Issue Negative Agenda/Issue

Launch of integrated conservative party Launch of Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party Provisional session of National Assembly in Outbreak of novel coronavirus February Opposition to primary elections of political New election rules in full effect Confirmation of electoral districts parties Launch of Future Korea Party Supreme Court ruling of Gyeonggi Governor Lee Conflicts between prosecutors and the Ministry Jae-myung of Justice Court ruling of Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kyoung-soo

❍ The agenda/issues of January have been categorized based on their degree of influence on state affairs.

❍ The outbreak of the novel coronavirus will be the main focus of February as it will stir a great amount of attention nationally and globally, in addition to imposing a negative impact on state administration. - Negative evaluations will surge if the number of confirmed cases does not decrease or if the administration is slow to responding to particular issues regarding the situation.

❍ Due to the numerous neutral agenda/issues excluding the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, it is expected that there will be a fluctuation of events within the month of February.

❍ The lack of positive agenda/issues emphasizes the need to stir public attention such as through crisis management and primary election results.

￭ Three Main Takeaways of the Political Climate in February

① Will Fears Regarding the Coronavirus Subside?

❍ Two types of fears are prevalent since the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus. - The first is related to the spread of the virus within domestic borders and the second is related to China and its people. - Apart from the rising xenophobic sentiments against those of the Asian race, states are actively imposing restrictions against Chinese citizens to protect their own people.

❍ Regardless of the number of confirmed cases at the domestic level, the two types of fears are to be prevalent throughout February. - The spread of the novel coronavirus in South Korea is expected to reach its peak in early- or mid- February. - As the incubation period is known to last up to 14 days, observations will be made to see whether the number of confirmed cases increases or decreases by mid-February.

❍ Even if the number of confirmed cases ceases to increase, anxiety regarding the spread of the virus will remain domestically depending on the situation in China. - The number of confirmed cases and deaths is rapidly increasing in China, making it likely for the situation to remain severe even in March or April.

❍ Global fears regarding the spread of the coronavirus will possibly remain prevalent until April.

❍ The state administration and the ruling party emphasize the need to enhance measures for domestic protection in addition to reducing concerns against China and its people. - The state will choose to work on measures to control the emotional state of its citizens rather than those that can provide a logical explanation to the situation.

② Who Will Act on the Current Health Crisis Amidst the State Personnel Reshuffling Conflict

❍ While the ruling and opposition parties are actively imposing the new election rules for the upcoming general elections, the ‘mixed member-proportional (MMP) representation’ system is influencing the creation of numerous minority parties. - Unlike the previous general elections, many new parties are being established since a party vote of at least 3% allows for a spot in the National Assembly.

❍ The ideologies of the main political parties are positioned as shown below.

_ As the MMP ❍ The progressive parties include the Democratic Party of Korea and the Justice Party, representation which can be viewed as a part of the larger ruling party. system allows for - With this in mind, the Justice Party is giving greater focus on party votes greater representation of compared to votes from local constituencies. minority parties, the conservative ❍ In contrast, the conservative parties include the Liberty Korea Party, New Conservative parties are divided Party, Patriots’ Party, and Unification Party. into the Liberty Korea Party, New - As mentioned before, the MMP representation system allows for greater Conservative Party, representation of minority parties. However, the DPK will be placed in a more Patriots’ Party, and advantageous position due to the distribution of conservative votes from local Unification Party. constituencies. _ The DPK will be - In response, the conservative parties have been aiming to create a larger, placed in a more advantageous integrated conservative bloc to be able to compete against the DPK, but it can position due to the be predicted that the new bloc will only consist of the LKP and the New distribution of Conservative Party. conservative votes from local constituencies. ❍ Former Bareunmirae Chairman Ahn Cheol-soo intends to rally support from the centrist group for his new political party. - The integration of the centrists and conservatives will most likely take place depending on the establishment of Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party. - Centrist parties include the Bareunmirae Party, Party for Democracy and Peace, and the New Alternatives Party. It is difficult to conclude whether these parties will work in cooperation with Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party.

❍ Although the opposition parties are actively restructuring themselves in order to gain _ The restructuring of an upper hand in the upcoming general elections, the actual competitiveness of political the opposition bloc parties will be revealed by public opinion polls sometime in February. is most likely going - Based on recent political trends, it can be expected that the integrated to favor the DPK conservative bloc consisting of the LKP and the New Conservative Party will take instead of the opposition parties the lead, with Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party coming in second. themselves. - For more detailed information, refer to the party approval ratings.

❍ The restructuring of the opposition bloc is most likely going to favor the DPK instead of the opposition parties themselves. - While the DPK represents collective interests, the opposition parties are divided into conservatives and progressives, which are subdivided into parties with various political interests. Therefore, the DPK is assumed to be in a more favorable position for the upcoming general elections.

❍ The opposition bloc is also attempting to execute a strategy which helps maintain the interests of individual political parties while unifying members of the party. - The integration of the LKP and the New Conservative party is to take place in February, raising possibilities for discussions regarding the inclusion of Ahn Cheol-soo’s new political party to occur. - The integration of the three different political parties will heighten the competitiveness of the opposition bloc to compete against the ruling party.

③ What Decision Will Those Who Are ‘Cut Off’ Make?

❍ Announcements regarding the final cuts of the LKP will be made in early- or mid- February, whereas those of the DPK will be made at the end of February. - ‘Cut-offs’ are a way to prevent candidates from participating in primary elections.

❍ According to current election laws, those who left a party cannot join a different party or run as an independent candidate. However, it is possible for those who were ‘cut-off’ to do so.

❍ In the case of the LKP, the general elections planning committee set the cut-off ratio for incumbent lawmakers to be a third of the district, which could eliminate at least 30 lawmakers from the screening process. - The LKP consists of 108 incumbent lawmakers.

❍ _ There will be There will be setbacks to the general elections depending on whether the ‘cut-off’ setbacks to the members join other conservative parties (Patriots’ Party or Unification Party) or run as general elections independent candidates. depending on - The DPK may be placed in a more advantageous position depending on the whether the ‘cut- decisions of members who were ‘cut-off’ from the LKP. off’ members join other conservative parties (Patriots’ ❍ Members ‘cut-off’ from the DPK may also join different parties (Ahn Cheol-soo’s new Party or Unification political party or New Alternatives Party) or run as independent candidates, but either Party) or run as decision is to have an insignificant impact on the general elections. independent candidates). - The DPK has notified the bottom 20% of its members individually regarding their ‘cut-off’ status, however, since the party has not banned them from participating in the primary elections, the chances of these individuals joining a different party or running as independent candidates are low. - While those who were ‘cut-off’ but non-incumbent members of the party may run as independent candidates, such individuals will barely have an impact on the general elections.

❍ Great attention will be given to the decisions of individuals who were ‘cut-off,’ especially from the LKP.