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Report Re Coley Park, Coley Avenue, Reading PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL www.dtz.com Maidstone Retail Capacity Study Maidstone Borough Council June 2013 DTZ, a UGL company 125 Old Broad Street London EC2N 2BQ Contents 1. Introduction 3 2. Basis of the Retail Capacity Forecasts 4 3. Quantitative Capacity for New Retail Development 18 4. Conclusions 28 Appendix A – Catchment Plan Appendix B – Technical Report of the Household Interview Survey 2012 Appendix C – Maidstone RECAP Model 2013 Appendix D – Results of the Household Interview Survey 2012 Maidstone Page 2 Retail Capacity Study 1 Introduction 1.1 Maidstone Borough Council has commissioned DTZ to undertake a new and up-to-date Retail Capacity Study for Maidstone. The purpose of this Study is to assess the quantitative needs for retail development over the period to 2031. Our findings will inform the emerging planning policy framework (including Local Plan). 1.2 This Study is prepared in the context of a number of events and forecasting parameters, which have served to change the retail landscape in Maidstone. These include: . The publication of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) in March 2012, which requires local planning authorities to plan for growth and allocate sites for retail development based on a robust and up-to-date evidence base; . The impact of economic conditions, reduced consumer expenditure and the continued shift towards internet shopping on retail floorspace forecasts and shopping habits; . Changes in retailers’ sales densities; and . Growth in competing centres, including the potential expansion of the Bluewater regional shopping centre. 1.3 The retail capacity forecasts in this Study are therefore based on the most up-to-date information currently available, including a new 2012 household interview survey of the shopping patterns. Thus this Study supersedes the 2009 Retail Study for Maidstone (prepared by Kent County Council’s Research & Intelligence Unit). 1.4 For clarity, the remainder of this Study is structured as follows: . Chapter 2: Basis of the Retail Capacity Forecasts – We describe the basis of our retail capacity forecasts, and the data inputs and assumptions on which these are based. Chapter 3: Quantitative Capacity for New Retail Development – We set out and describe the up-to-date forecasts for Maidstone Town Centre, Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough, and District Centres in Maidstone urban area. We further outline forecasts for South Aylesford Retail Park which, whilst outside Maidstone Borough, does have significant implications for shopping patterns in Maidstone. Chapter 4: Conclusions – We provide an overview of our principal findings and the implications for retail planning and development in Maidstone Town Centre. 1.5 DTZ has also been instructed by the Council to undertake the Maidstone Town Centre Assessment, which considers the potential future options for the town centre. Maidstone Page 3 Retail Capacity Study 2 Basis of the Retail Capacity Forecasts 2.1 For the retail capacity forecasting in this Study, we have used our RECAP retail capacity forecasting Model. The RECAP Model is an empirical ‘step by step’ model, based on the results of the 2012 Maidstone Household Survey of shopping patterns as its method of allocating retail expenditure from catchment zones to shopping destinations. It is therefore not a theoretical gravity model, but is based on consumer responses about actual shopping patterns. It is also a growth allocation model; which allocates growth in expenditure to shopping destinations based on shopping patterns indicated by the Household interview survey, and informed professional judgements about how these will be likely to change in the future as a result of committed or potential new retail developments. 2.2 The RECAP Model forecasts the expenditure-based capacity for additional retail floorspace in the following way: . Calculate the total amount of convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is available within the 6 zones comprising the catchment area; . Allocate the available expenditure to Maidstone Town Centre, Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough, District Centres in Maidstone urban area, and South Aylesford Retail Park (based on the results of the 2012 Household interview survey of shopping patterns); so as to obtain estimates of current sales and forecast future sales in each shopping destination; and . Compare the estimated sales in Maidstone Town Centre, Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough, District Centres in Maidstone urban area, and South Aylesford Retail Park with existing floorspace; so as to assess the current trading performance of each shopping destination, and the capacity to support further growth in convenience and comparison goods floorspace. 2.3 In addition, we can use the RECAP Model to assess the potential impact on sales and capacity forecasts of any future changes to the measured 2012 pattern of market shares. For example, it may be appropriate to model an additional scenario; specifically higher market shares in Maidstone Town Centre and, conversely, lower market shares at Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough (and/or South Aylesford Retail Park)1. 1 This element of the work (i.e. modelling an alternative scenario) has been deferred; pending the outcome of the Council’s housing capacity/distribution work to inform the emerging planning policy framework. Maidstone Page 4 Retail Capacity Study 2.4 The RECAP Model (like any other forecasting model of this type) is an exploratory tool, rather than a prescriptive mechanism. Thus the resulting forecasts of quantitative need are not intended as growth targets which must be achieved, or as rigid limits to future growth. Rather, they are a realistic guide to planning policies and decisions on planning applications. Separate capacity forecasts have been prepared for Maidstone Town Centre, Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough, and District Centres in Maidstone urban area; in order to assist Maidstone Borough Council with identification and testing of alternative options for the town centre, developing a preferred strategy and formulating policies for new retail development. 2.5 Separate capacity forecasts have also been prepared for South Aylesford Retail Park. This retail park lies within Tonbridge & Malling Borough and is thus outside the control of Maidstone Borough Council. It does, however, have significant implications for shopping patterns in Maidstone. Accordingly, we have modelled retail capacity forecasts for South Aylesford Retail Park as a shopping destination on its own (separate from Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough); providing both Maidstone Borough Council and Tonbridge & Malling Borough Council with an indication of how much retail expenditure it attracts and the potential retail capacity arising from its market share. In accordance with the sequential approach of the NPPF, any forecast growth should be located in or on the edge of the town centre (and/or district centres); in is preference to out-of- centre locations such as South Aylesford Retail Park, if at all possible. 2.6 Whilst we have prepared capacity forecasts for both convenience and comparison goods floorspace in Maidstone Town Centre, Non-central shops and stores in Maidstone Borough, and South Aylesford Retail Park, we have prepared forecasts for convenience goods floorspace only at the District Centres in Maidstone (namely Grove Green and Mid-Kent Shopping Centre). This is because these District Centres in Maidstone urban area comprise a very limited comparison goods retail offer, with very few or no apparent ‘anchor’ retailers of comparison goods. This is reflected by the results of the 2012 household interview survey of shopping patterns. 2.7 In the case of the much smaller ‘village’ District Centres identified in the draft Core Strategy (namely Coxheath, Headcorn, Lenham, Marden and Staplehurst) we have been unable to model convenience or comparison goods sales, or prepare forecasts of quantitative needs for new retail floorspace. This is because there is very limited data available on such centres, including up-to-date shop floorspace data which is necessary for quantitative retail needs forecasting. Further, these small District Centres have a very limited convenience and comparison goods retail offer, and thus do not feature notably in the results of the household interview survey – which asked where respondents ‘do most’ of their shopping for convenience goods and each category of comparison goods. As a result, there is no reliable data available on the (very small) market shares of catchment area convenience and comparison goods expenditure which they attract. Maidstone Page 5 Retail Capacity Study 2.8 In practice, (with the exception of possible new supermarkets) there is very little retailer demand for new convenience and/or comparison goods shops in these small District Centres. It is therefore very unlikely that substantial new retail development will need to be planned for. The absence of convenience and comparison goods retail capacity forecasts for these small centres is, in our view, of little consequence for the emerging planning policy framework. Should proposals come forward for an appropriate scale and nature of retail development, which reflects the role and function of these small District Centres, they should be supported by the Council. Any new retail development within such centres is likely to arise from population and expenditure growth, as opposed to the transfer of expenditure
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