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Retail Needs and Leisure Assessment ASHFORD LOCAL PLAN 2030 EXAMINATION LIBRARY EBD03 Ashford Borough Council RETAIL NEEDS AND LEISURE ASSESSMENT JUNE 2015 Ashford Retail Needs and Leisure Assessment: Final Report June 2015 Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report QA Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our Quality Manual requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. The document must be treated as a draft unless it has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Partner. Date 26.06.15 Originators Approved Bláthnaid Duffy Dr Steven Norris Associate Partner Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of Carter Jonas LLP; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. June 2015 ii Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report CONTENTS EXECUTITVE SUMMARY 1 BACKGROUND 1 SHOPPING PATTERNS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 1 RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS 3 MEETING NEEDS IN THE BOROUGH’S TOWN CENTRES 6 Ashford Town Centre 6 Tenterden Town Centre 8 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 10 1.0 INTRODUCTION 11 2.0 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 14 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 14 LOCAL PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 18 SUMMARY 20 3.0 NATIONAL RETAIL TRENDS & TOWN CENTRE FUTURES 21 RETAIL TRENDS 21 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 24 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 25 TOWN CENTRE FUTURES 27 4.0 SHOPPING PATTERNS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 33 RETAIL HIERARCHY 33 STUDY AREA & ZONES 33 PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND LEISURE SPENDING 34 SUMMARY 41 5.0 ASHFORD TOWN CENTRE: HEALTH CHECK 43 RETAIL CONTEXT 44 June 2015 iii Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report RETAIL COMPOSITION AND DIVERSITY 45 VACANCY LEVELS 47 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 49 PRIME ZONE A RENTS 50 ACCESSIBILITY & PEDESTRIAN FLOWS 50 Accessibility 50 Pedestrian Flows 51 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 51 Household Survey 51 Stakeholder Consultation 52 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 57 OUT OF CENTRE PROVISION 57 Ashford Designer Outlet Centre 57 Other Out of Centre 59 NEW INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 61 SUMMARY 62 6.0 TENTERDEN TOWN CENTRE: HEALTH CHECK 64 RETAIL CONTEXT 64 RETAIL COMPOSITION AND DIVERSITY 65 VACANCY LEVELS 66 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 67 PRIME ZONE A RETAIL RENTS 67 ACCESSIBILITY & PEDESTRIAN FLOWS 67 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 68 Household Survey 68 Stakeholder Consultation 68 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 70 NEW INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 70 iv June 2015 Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report SUMMARY 70 7.0 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 72 INTRODUCTION 72 POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE FORECASTS 73 Expenditure Per Capita and Special Forms of Trading (SFT) 74 Average Expenditure Growth Forecasts 75 Total Available Expenditure 75 MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 75 Convenience Goods 76 Comparison Goods 77 ‘INFLOW’ AND BASE YEAR TURNOVER ESTIMATES 77 RETAIL COMMITMENTS 79 Ashford – Edge of Centre 79 Tenterden – Edge of Centre: 79 Ashford Borough – District/Local Centres: 80 Ashford Borough - Out of Town/Centre: 80 ‘BASELINE’ CAPACITY: BOROUGH AREA-WIDE FORECASTS 82 ‘BASELINE’ CAPACITY: CENTRE FORECASTS 85 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT SCENARIO 1: OCCUPATION OF KEY VACANT RETAIL FLOORSPACE 89 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT SCENARIO 2: POPULATION UPLIFT 89 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT SCENARIO 3: MARKET SHARE ‘SENSITIVITY’ TEST91 SUMMARY 93 8.0 LEISURE ‘GAP’ ASSESSMENT 95 LEISURE EXPENDITURE GROWTH 95 CINEMA 98 EATING & DRINKING OUT 101 HEALTH & FITNESS NEED 105 BINGO & GAMBLING 109 June 2015 v Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report TEN-PIN BOWLING 110 CULTURAL ACTIVITIES 111 HOTEL PROVISION 112 SUMMARY 113 9.0 SHOPPING FRONTAGE AND RETAL IMPACT THRESHOLD RECOMMENDATIONS 116 PRIMARY SHOPPING AREA AND SHOPPING FRONTAGES 116 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: LOCAL FLOORSPSPACE THRESHOLD 119 GLOSSARY & ABBREVIATIONS 122 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA 125 APPENDIX 2: NEMS SURVEY METHODOLOGY 126 APPENDIX 3: HTIS SURVEY RESULTS (WEIGHTED) 127 APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 128 APPENDIX 5: COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 129 APPENDIX 6: ASHFORD AND TENTERDENT TOWN CENTRES - PRIMARY FRONTAGE AUDIT 130 APPENDIX 7A: BASELINE CONVENIENCE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 131 APPENDIX 7B: CONVENIENCE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT – POPULATION SENSITIVITY TEST 132 APPENDIX 8A: BASELINE COMPARISON CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 133 APPENDIX 8B: COMPARISON CAPACITY ASSESSMENT – POPULATION SENSITIVITY TEST 134 APPENDIX 9: LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT 135 APPENDIX 10: EXISTING AND PROPOSED HOTEL PROVISION 136 APPENDIX 11: RECOMMENDED SHOPPING FRONTAGES FOR ASHFORD TOWN CENTRE137 APPENDIX 12: CONSULTATION REGISTER 138 vi June 2015 Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report EXECUTITVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND 1. Carter Jonas LLP was commissioned by the Ashford Borough Council in November 2014 to update the retail evidence base (i.e. the 2003 Ashford Retail Study ) to help inform both plan-making and decision-taking across the Borough. 2. This Executive Summary sets out the study’s key findings and provides out high level advice on how the local planning authority can effectively plan for, manage and promote the vitality and viability of the Borough’s two main centres over the development plan period (up to 2030) in accordance with the main requirements of the NPPF (paragraph 23). 3. Our advice is based on the updated assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for new retail (comparison and convenience goods) and commercial leisure floorspace in Ashford Borough and its two main Town Centres (namely Ashford and Tenterden) over the development plan period, up to 2030. 4. The need assessment draws on a robust evidence base and new research, including health checks of Ashford and Tenterden Town Centres; a telephone interview survey of some 1,000 residents in Ashford Borough and a wider Study Area; and a high level consultation with key stakeholders and businesses in the Borough’s main centres, as well as neighbouring authorities. 5. The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), which place weight on the development of positive plan-led visions and strategies for town centres. SHOPPING PATTERNS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 6. The Study Area and nine study zones defined for the purpose of this study (Appendix 1) provide the necessary robust framework for the telephone interview survey of some 1,000 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (Appendices 2 and 3). 7. This survey has helped to establish current shopping and leisure patterns across the Borough and wider Study Area for different types of convenience and comparison goods purchases, including special forms of trading (Appendices 4 and 5). 8. The market share analysis has identified that all the Borough’s food and convenience stores are achieving a market share of 49.5% across the defined Study Area (i.e. after making an allowance for SFT). The ‘retention levels’ are significantly higher in the zones that comprise the Borough area (Zones 1a and 1b) at 89.1%. There is more June 2015 1 Ashford Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment Final Report limited market penetration in outer zones (e.g. Zones 5 to 8) due to the competition from foodstores in the centres that serve those zones (e.g. Folkestone in Zone 7). 9. The Borough’s four main out-of-centre foodstores (Asda, Sainsbury’s and two Tesco Extras) are achieving a higher market share (30.1%) for the Study Area than for the two main town centres combined (10.1%). This highlights the potential to increase the market shares of the main town centres; particularly Ashford Town Centre. This could be achieved through new investment in the centre’s food and convenience goods offer, subject to the availability of suitable and viable sites. 10. In terms of comparison goods, it is apparent that Ashford Town Centre is facing competition from Canterbury, Folkestone and other centres for a wide range of non- food purchases; particularly for fashion shopping. This reflects the more limited range, choice and overall quality of the town centre’s comparison goods offer compared with the competing centres. For example, the market share analysis (after making an allowance for SFT) shows that all the Borough’s comparison goods retailing is achieving a market share of 43.9% across the defined Study Area and 25.1% for Ashford Town Centre and 2.9% for Tenterden Town Centre. Within the study area, Folkestone is the main competitor for Ashford; achieving a comparison goods market share of 17.3%. Outside of the Study Area, Canterbury (9.7%) is the main competing shopping destination for all comparison goods purchases. It is noted that other key centres in Kent attract little to no market share of expenditure. For example, Dover only attracts 0.1% of comparison goods expenditure from the Study Area. As for convenience goods, the ‘retention levels’ are significantly higher in those zones that comprise the Borough area (Zones 1 to 4) at 73.1%. Within the Ashford urban area (Zones 1a and 1b), stores in the Borough retain 81.7% of comparison expenditure; reducing to 61.2% for the Tenterden area (Zone 4). 11. The market share analysis shows that despite the presence of key retail brands at Ashford Designer Outlet and proximity to Ashford Town Centre, its market share of expenditure in the Borough area and the wider Study Area is approximately 5%. This correlates with the catchment and customer profile provided by McArthur Glen, which shows that the majority of shoppers travelling to the Designer Outlet originate from outside of the Study Area. Furthermore, the market share analysis (when excluding SFT) also confirms that the market shares for Ashford Town Centre and the Designer Outlet have both improved since 2003. For example, Ashford Town Centre’s market share for total comparison goods shopping increased from 24.0% to 25.1% from 2003 to 2014, which is likely attributed to the extension of County Square shopping Centre.
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