VENUESCORE 2017 Executive Summary

VENUESCORE 2017 UK Shopping Venue Rankings

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 02 | CONTENTS

Contents 1 Introduction 03 2 Methodology 05 3 Findings 10

Location Grade – Leading 180 venues represent ~24% of UK’s total VENUESCORE 10

Top Shopping Venues – Manchester pips Glasgow to the post 11

Major Movers – John Lewis’s opening increases Chelmsford’s retail rank by 23 places 12

Top Shopping Centres – Westfield continues to dominate14

Top Retail Parks – Fort Kinnard climbs the retail rankings 16

Top Factory Outlet Centres – Cheshire Oaks defends its title 17

Dominant City Centres – Conurbation performance is unchanged 18

Malls vs. High Streets – Dominance of malls is a regional trend 19

London Focus – Spending remains concentrated in Central and Inner London 20

Market Position – London venues continue to lead 22

Food Orientation – London dominates in the foodservice offer 24

Travel – Retail continues to grow in importance within travel hubs 26

Fashion Position – Spitalfields paves the way for progressive retailers 28

Age Position – Carnaby Street attracts the youngest consumers 29

Tourist Venues – Travel hubs lead the way 30

Internationalisation – Regent Street is a destination for international retailers 31

Regional Analysis – Many regions continue to be under-shopped 32 Order VENUESCORE 2017 34 About Javelin Group 35

INTRODUCTION 1

VENUESCORE™ 2017 provides retailers, brands, property developers and owners with an up-to- date, straightforward tool for understanding some of the key differences between shopping venues across the UK such as scale of offer, market positioning, fashionability and age positioning.

VENUESCORE is Javelin Group’s annual ranking of the UK’s retail venues (including town centres, standalone malls, retail warehouse parks and factory outlet centres).

VENUESCORE is one of a series of proprietary location insight datasets created by Javelin Group to help clients (including retailers, brands, local authorities, private equity, shopping centre owners and investors) to understand the full potential of their retail property assets and to shape these in response to the structural changes that are delivering a seismic shift to the UK’s retail landscape.

For retailers and brands trading nationally, and across a range of different location types, the development of an effective 'shape of chain' strategy requires the segmentation of the store estate so that the performance of outlets trading in venues of similar retail status can be better understood, and potential new store opportunities can be benchmarked in this context.

For shopping centre developers and investors, an understanding of the retail hierarchy in an area, overlaid with consumer spending dynamics, helps to highlight opportunities for new development and/or tenant requirements for existing schemes.

For private equity investors, a clear vision of the UK retail landscape can help evaluate the deliverability of roll-out plans and store performance assumptions presented as part of investment theses.

For local authorities, a clear understanding of the hierarchy of retail venues within the area can help to determine trends in multiple occupancy, establish strategic priorities for future investment and provide the core input for area benchmarking studies and capacity assessments.

METHODOLOGY 2

The retail offer of each shopping venue in the VENUESCORE UK is evaluated using a straightforward and 2017 is a dataset comprising 3,295 transparent scoring system, reflecting its relative individual multiple consumer appeal. retailer fascias trading nationwide Retailer Scoring in April 2016 from over 126,184 stores VENUESCORE 2017 evaluates each venue in terms of its provision of multiple (using raw data retailers – including anchor stores, fashion operators, and non-fashion multiples. supplied by Retail

Locations). The sectors covered include foodservice, which in recent years has become increasingly integrated in helping to define and differentiate successful retail offers, as well as all comparison and convenience-based product sectors.

The score attached to each operator is weighted to reflect its overall impact on shopping patterns. For example, anchor stores (e.g. John Lewis, Marks & Spencer, Selfridges) receive a higher score than unit stores. The resulting aggregate score for each venue is called its VENUESCORE.

Classification Illustrative example retailers VENUESCORE

Premier Department Store Harrods, Selfridges (London) 50 Major Department Store Harvey Nichols, John Lewis 30 Premier Variety Stores Ikea 15 Hypermarkets Tesco Extra, Asda Supercentre 10 Department Store Chains Debenhams, House of Fraser 10 Supermarkets Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Asda, Waitrose 8 Variety Stores Dunnes, Beales 4 Local Anchors Marks & Spencer 4 Destination Speciality B&Q, Next, Toys R Us 3 Clothing Destination TK Maxx, Abercrombie & Fitch 3 Multiple Clothing Retailers H&M, Topshop, New Look, River Island 2 Leisure Goods Destination Halfords, Hobbycraft, Sports Direct 2 Other Multiple Retailers 99p Stores, Clarks, JD Sports 1

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Venue Definitions Venues are defined using a common- Venue definitions have been fully updated in VENUESCORE 2017, reflecting the sense approach, evolving status and extent of the UK’s commercial centres. which describes the retail offer The area defined for each retail venue uses a common-sense approach, which as a single venue describes the retail offer as one venue where there is a concentration of stores that shoppers would consider as part of the same 'walkable' shopping offer. To illustrate: where there is a concentration of • Example 1: In central Cambridge, the area around the Grafton Centre shopping stores that shoppers mall is defined as a distinct retail venue separate from Cambridge, Centre, consider part of which comprises Grand Arcade, Lion Yard, Petty Cury etc. This is because (a) the same walkable although both offers are located in the centre of Cambridge, the retail offer is not shopping offer. continuous from one area to the other and (b) shoppers will generally shop in one area or the other as part of one shopping trip, and when they shop both they might generally travel from one to the other either by car or public transport.

• Example 2: In central Glasgow, Argyle Street and Sauciehall Street are both allocated to one venue Glasgow, Centre despite being some distance apart. This is because (a) the retail offer is relatively unbroken from one end of Sauciehall Street right through to the far end of Trongate and (b) a proportion of shoppers would visit both extremes of the retail offer as part of one shopping trip.

• Example 3: In Warrington, the town centre offer including the Golden Square shopping centre and the Cockhedge Retail Park is allocated to the same retail venue Warrington, Centre – although it is then also possible to assess The Grafton Centre, Cambridge Cockhedge Retail Park as a distinct zone within the Warrington, Centre venue.

• Exceptions: In London, the retail offer of the West End (e.g. Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden, Bond Street, Carnaby Street) is broken down into constituent offers for the purposes of venue ranking – although London, West End, London, Midtown and London, City can also be assessed as aggregates of their constituent retail venues.

Venue Scoring

The VENUESCORE for each location is created by combining the retailer scoring matrix (described on page 6) within the venue’s area definition, and therefore reflects the presence and importance of the multiple retailers trading in each venue.

The resulting VENUESCORE rankings generally correlate closely with the actual market sizes of these shopping venues (in terms of consumer spending). However, there are some notable exceptions. For example, the mega-malls such as Trafford Centre, Bluewater and Meadowhall will tend to generate spending levels that are well in excess of their relative VENUESCORE. The same is true of several London venues, with Oxford Street and the two Westfield schemes the most notable outliers to this rule.

Westfield Shopping Centre, London

London city centre venues are defined as distinct aggregate venues to reflect their true status as powerful city centre offers in their own right. For example, London, West End combines Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden and others, London, Midtown combines Holborn, Clerkenwell, Finsbury and others and London, City combines Bank, Moorgate, Liverpool Street and others.

Venue Attributes

In addition to its VENUESCORE, each location is assessed in terms of a range of other attributes, including:

• Market positioning Is the offer aspirational or down-market? • Age focus Is the offer targeting younger or older consumers? • Fashion focus How dominant is the venue’s clothing offer? • Fashionability of its offer Is the clothing offer traditional or progressive? • Foodservice bias How strong is the food and beverage offer? • Comparison vs. convenience bias • Anchor strength How much of the overall score for each venue is delivered by major anchors (e.g. department stores, variety stores, supermarkets?) • Shopping centre vs. high street dominance Is there a powerful mall offer?

These characteristics are described in the Findings section on page 10.

In the data tables that support VENUESCORE 2017, venues are ranked as follows:

• National ranking • Alphabetical ranking (by town) • Rankings by region • Rankings by local authority • MALLSCORE – Separate rankings for purpose-built shopping centres, retail parks, outlet centres and transport hubs in the UK

This year, Javelin Group has further refined its VENUESCORE methodology and added an additional 313+ venues to the rankings (down to Minor Local level). Refinements include changes to the geographic definition of certain retail venues and some changes to the underlying scoring system. Furthermore, an additional 128 multiple retailers are included. This partly reflects the continuing importance of foodservice multiples (e.g. Benugo, Joe & The Juice and CAU) but also new and interesting retailers (e.g. Kiko Milano and American Eagle Outfitters).

FINDINGS 3

The following pages summarise key findings from VENUESCORE the data analysis from VENUESCORE 2017. establishes eight principal grades of retail venue in the Location Grades UK, ranging from Leading 180 venues represent ~24% of UK’s total VENUESCORE Major City to Local status retail offers. VENUESCORE establishes eight principal grades of town centre/mall retail venue in the UK for town centres and malls, ranging from the 19 Major City locations such as Manchester city centre through to 1,800+ Local shopping venues such as Alexandria and Wick. In addition, there are a further 19,000+ venues across the country defined as Minor Local that are not shown in the table below.

The leading 180 venues (e.g. Major City, Major Regional and Regional grades) represent nearly one-quarter of the nation’s total combined VENUESCORE. This increases to over forty percent when the Sub-Regional and Major District grades are included. These larger venues capture an even greater share of consumer spending than is indicated purely based on VENUESCORE.

Illustrative example VENUESCORE # of Location Grade Cumulative # venues range Locations Major City Manchester to Bath 350+ 19 19 Major Regional Sheffield to Harrogate 230-349 37 56 Regional Swindon to Chesterfield 135-229 121 177 Sub-Regional Crewe to Stevenage 75-134 198 375 Major District Aldershot to Woodbridge 50-74 243 618 District Bakewell to Street 30-49 491 1,109 Minor District Padstow to Prescot 20-29 514 1,623 Local Alexandria to Ventnor 10-19 1,814 3,437

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017) NB. All venues scoring less than 10 are classified by Javelin Group as Minor Local

Top Shopping Venues London’s West Manchester pips Glasgow to the post End is the UK’s leading shopping London, West End clearly stands some distance above any other city centre in destination with terms of the scale of its retail offer (with a VENUESCORE that is more than double a VENUESCORE of that of its next nearest rival Manchester). 1,625 – more than double the UK’s However, London, West End can also be considered as a number of separate next largest retail (albeit interlinked) retail venues (e.g. Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden), with VENUESCORE providing the opportunity to assess the capital hub (Manchester from both perspectives. (Other characteristics of London’s retail offer are Centre). described later).

Manchester’s retail offer continues to strengthen year on year, now ranking first (excluding London) due to a greatly improved retail offer. For example, the opening of itsu, Michael Kors, Joe & The Juice and Smiggle. John Lewis, Tommy Hilfiger, Hackett and Anthropologie are just a few names in the newly opened Victoria Gate development in Leeds which sees Leeds climb into third place.

Croydon has fallen out of the top 20 UK retail venues (-6%). In the 1960s the Whitgift Centre was the first and largest covered shopping development in London, but regeneration in Croydon is now required for it to climb back up the retail rankings. The Croydon Partnership, a joint venture between Westfield and Hammerson, will help deliver retail regeneration to the centre.

% % Rank Venue VENUESCORE change Rank Venue VENUESCORE change London, West End 1,625 1% London, City 823 2% 1 Manchester 780 2% 11 Aberdeen 443 -5% 2 Glasgow 776 -4% 12 Bristol 412 -2% 3 Leeds 659 3% 13 Norwich 403 -2% 4 Birmingham 640 -7% 14 Leicester 394 -2% 5 Liverpool 548 -1% 15 Reading 393 -4% 6 Cardiff 516 1% 16 Belfast 388 -5% 7 Brighton 503 -3% 17 Kingston upon Thames 382 -3% 8 Nottingham 500 -4% 18 Bath 363 -2% 9 Edinburgh 498 -3% 19 Sheffield 338 -3% 10 Newcastle upon Tyne 450 -2% 20 Southampton 338 -5%

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Major Movers John Lewis’s opening increases Chelmsford’s retail rank by 23 places

In the UK’s top 200 retail venues, Chelmsford’s retail ranking has greatly benefitted from the opening of Bond Street. Chelmsford has achieved Major Regional status thanks to this development. John Lewis, The White Company and Prezzo are just some of the retailers now open on Bond Street and the second phase (coming soon) will see Chelmsford climb even higher.

Since its opening in November 2015, Newport has continued to rise up the rankings with new openings at Friars Walk such as Apple, Nando’s and Sketchers to complement the existing retail offer.

Place Place Highest Climbers Biggest Fallers Change (+/-) Change (+/-) Top 100 Venues 1 Chelmsford +23 Ipswich -13 2 Regent Street +13 Carlisle -12 3 Newport (Gwent) +13 Stoke-on-Trent -11 4 Chichester +8 Hereford -8 5 Canterbury +7 Doncaster -7 6 Cheshire Oaks FO/Coliseum RP +6 Wolverhampton -7 7 Warrington +6 Uxbridge -6 8 Windsor +5 Middlesborough -5 9 Blackpool +5 Derby -4 10 Swindon +5 Chester -4 Venues Ranked 101-200 1 Belgravia +6 Wrexham -29 2 Silverburn (Glasgow) +6 Braehead SC -21 3 Angel +5 Wood Green -20 4 Dunfermline +5 Stevenage -20 5 Andover +5 Slough -16 6 Walthamstow +3 Banbury -16 7 Bexleyheath +3 Horsham -16 8 Winchester +3 Stockton-on-Tees -14 9 Inverness +3 Bedford -14 10 Bury St Edmunds +2 East Kilbride -13

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Ipswich has fallen 13 places in its retail ranking due to the closure of some key stores including Next, Laura Ashley and Blacks. Similarly, Carlisle’s retail position has fallen as a result of closures such as Mountain Warehouse, Mothercare and Miss Selfridge.

Oxford, UK

Westgate in Oxford, scheduled to open in autumn 2017, will see Oxford climb up the top 100 retail rankings. Ted Baker, John Lewis and Next are just some of the confirmed brands set to open in this new scheme.

Top 20 Shopping Centres Westfield continues to dominate

MALLSCORE represents the VENUESCORE of purpose-built shopping centres (malls, retail parks or factory outlet centres). Isolating the scores of these centres allows them to be ranked on a consistent basis, whether or not they are part of a wider retail offer (such as Liverpool One within Liverpool, Centre).

The top of the mall rankings shown on page 15 is dominated by standalone regional mega-malls. Westfield London remains the number one ranked shopping centre in the UK and is the premier scheme in terms of its aspirational market positioning – as evidenced by its Value-Luxury Index* (see page 16) of 140. Westfield Stratford’s retail provision has strengthened when compared to Westfield London and Bluewater, which have both experienced decline (-4% and -3% respectively). There are signs of stress at Arndale Centre, intu Merry Hill, and The Centre:MK; all of which have seen retail supply in decline.

Bullring, Birmingham

Festival Place has fallen out of the top 20 shopping centres and has been replaced by The Mall at Cribbs Causeway (9% decline in supply). Cribbs Causeway has seen many new openings, such as Kiko Milano, Kurt Geiger and Smiggle (1% increase in provision).

When analysing the presence of multiple retailers, the large majority of malls listed below are appearing to experience a decline in provision since last year. However, new retail and catering entrants into the UK market with only one store are not captured in the analysis, and therefore, this downward trend is better explained by the opening of new international retailers rather than store closures. For example, R.M.Williams (an Australian brand selling leather goods) and The Meat Co. have recently opened in Westfield London.

Value-Luxury Rank Scheme Town MALLSCORE index (avg=100)

1 Westfield London London 328 140 2 Westfield Stratford City London 325 126 3 Bluewater Greenhithe 324 130 4 intu Trafford Centre Manchester 316 122 5 Meadowhall Sheffield 293 120 6 intu Lakeside Grays 250 112 7 intu Metrocentre Gateshead 249 108 8 St Davids Centre Cardiff 236 121 9 intu Merry Hill Brierley Hill 219 102 10 Arndale Centre Manchester 215 108 11 Liverpool One Liverpool 213 120 12 intu Derby Derby 210 101 13 Canary Wharf London 210 136 14 Bullring Birmingham 209 124 15 The Centre:MK Milton Keynes 194 113 *The Value-Luxury Index reflects 16 intu Eldon Square Newcastle 183 112 the relative market position orientation of a venue where 100 17 Brent Cross London 180 130 defines the average UK retail 18 Whitefriars Canterbury 174 114 venue. Scores above 100 reflect an aspirational bias; scores 19 Highcross Leicester 174 118 below 100 reflect an orientation towards the discount/value end 20 The Mall at Cribbs Causeway Bristol 169 123 of the market. Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Top Retail Parks Fort Kinnard climbs the retail rankings

Once again, The Fort, Glasgow remains the UK’s leading retail park destination with recent openings including Wagamama, Pandora and Fat Face. However, Fort Kinnaird’s retail offer has notably strengthened over the past year (13% growth). Fort Kinnard has developed its food and beverage offer opening eight new restaurants including Chiquitos and Five Guys.

The Fort, Glasgow

Rank Scheme Town MALLSCORE % change

1 The Fort Glasgow 111 4% 2 Fort Kinnaird Edinburgh 106 13% 3 Middlebook Horwich 100 6% 4 Teesside Thornaby 97 -1% 5 Parc Trostre Llanelli 89 2% 6 Castlepoint Bournemouth 85 -2% 7 Retail World Parkgate Rotherham 79 -5% 8 Whiteley Village Fareham 80 5% 9 Ventura Tamworth 75 0% 10 Pentland Loanhead 73 -4%

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Top Factory Outlet Centres Cheshire Oaks defends its title

Cheshire Oaks remains ahead of any other factory outlet by scale. Bicester Village (ranking sixth) continues to offer the most differentiated aspirational brand mix by some margin with a Value-Luxury Index of 178 – a positioning above London’s Knightsbridge! Brands such as Alexander McQueen, Fendi and Gucci are just some of the impressive brands at Bicester Village contributing to its very high Luxury score.

Value-Luxury Rank Scheme MALLSCORE index (avg=100)

1 Cheshire Oaks Designer Outlet 133 143 2 York Designer Outlet 115 140 3 Gunwharf Quays 114 139 4 Bridgend Designer Outlet 99 125 5 Swindon Designer Outlet 94 137 6 Bicester Village 91 178 7 Ashford Designer Outlet 84 140 8 Freeport Village Braintree 81 132 9 Livingston Designer Outlet 80 128 10 Junction 32 77 118

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Bicester Village, Oxford

Dominant City Centres Conurbation performance is unchanged

The extent to which the city centre offer of the UK’s largest major cities dominates each conurbation's wider retail market is assessed below, as well as the extent to which each conurbation appears to be relatively over- or under-shopped.

The picture painted is varied, ranging from London and Birmingham at one extreme where the city centre offer represents a relatively small part of each wider conurbation's total offer (under 12%); to the dominant city centre offers of Kingston, Leeds and York (33%+).

At the conurbation level, VENUESCOREs have not changed dramatically due to a lack of major retail developments. Liverpool, Southampton and Sheffield have the lowest overall provision of multiple retail relative to their affluence-weighted populations (i.e. thereby appearing relatively under-shopped) when compared against this set of major conurbations, whilst York and Milton Keynes are at the opposite extreme.

Conurbation Affluence Weighted Under- / City Centre Conurbation City Centre Rank Conurbation Population Index Population per over-shopped as % of VENUESCORE VENUESCORE (000) (avg=100) VENUESCORE point index (avg=100) conurbation

1 Greater London 7,913 108 24,875 345 140 2,817 11% 2 Greater Birmingham 2,327 95 5,863 376 128 640 11% 3 Greater Manchester 1,266 98 4,358 285 169 780 18% 4 Greater Glasgow 1,013 95 3,493 276 174 776 22% 5 Tyneside 642 92 2,152 274 175 450 21% 6 Bristol 1,129 104 1,996 591 81 412 21% 7 Edinburgh 969 108 1,878 555 87 498 27% 8 Liverpool 1,311 92 1,797 671 72 548 30% 9 Leeds 1,069 98 1,743 601 80 659 38% 10 Greater Nottingham 587 100 1,729 340 142 500 29% 11 Belfast 741 112 1,407 590 82 388 28% 12 Sheffield 940 96 1,374 656 73 338 25% 13 Cardiff 546 107 1,332 440 109 516 39% 14 Leicester 853 100 1,180 724 66 394 33% 15 Southampton 753 103 1,148 674 71 338 29% 16 Kingston upon Hull 633 92 983 594 81 382 39% 17 Portsmouth 597 95 974 585 82 180 18% 18 Milton Keynes 222 105 939 250 193 294 31% 19 Stoke-on-Trent 286 94 902 298 161 203 23% 20 York 152 104 900 177 272 320 36%

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017) (*) The Index shown here is inversed whereby a high score indicates a potential relative over-provision of retail.

Malls vs. High Streets The importance of Dominance of malls is a regional trend shopping centres in the UK’s leading The role played by shopping centres in the UK’s leading venues now ranges from retail venues is only 10% of the offer in central London up to 80% in Bristol. Whilst the uneven reflected by the nature of shopping centre distribution across these leading retail venues partially proportion of reflects the specific configuration and opportunities available for development, it the total offer nevertheless suggests that additional mall development might be possible in areas accounted for by such as Sheffield and Bath. malls within the UK’s top 20 venues. Mall Rank Venue VENUESCORE MALLSCORE (*) Dominance (%)

Central London (**) 2,817 281 10% 1 Manchester 780 310 40% 2 Glasgow 776 292 38% 3 Birmingham 640 482 75% 4 Leeds 659 417 63% 5 Liverpool 548 328 60% 6 Cardiff 516 309 60% 7 Brighton 503 114 23% 8 Nottingham 500 191 38% 9 Edinburgh 498 172 35% 10 Newcastle upon Tyne 450 243 54% 11 Aberdeen 443 263 59% 12 Bristol 412 328 80% Eden Centre, High Wycombe 13 Norwich 403 159 39% 14 Leicester 394 220 56% 15 Reading 393 195 50% 16 Belfast 388 182 47% 17 Kingston upon Thames 382 131 34% 18 Bath 363 101 28% 19 Sheffield 338 77 23% 20 Southampton 338 207 61%

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017) (*) Total MALLSCORE of Shopping Centres only (**) London here defined as London, City, London, Mid-town and London, West End

London Focus Assessed as Spending remains concentrated in Central and Inner London aggregates of their constituent parts, Central London’s retail offer has a clear focus on upscale retail. This is exemplified London’s West End, by the Value-Luxury Index scores that are well above 100 for the vast majority City and Midtown of central London venues (defined as venues that make up London, West End, offers would London, City and London, Midtown). rank 1st, 2nd and 19th respectively In Inner London (definitions here are based on borough boundaries), the Westfield shopping centres lead the way, followed by Docklands, Kings Road, Hammersmith in the national and Camden Town. VENUESCORE rankings. In Outer London, Kingston, Croydon, Bromley and Romford stand out as the capital’s major suburban destinations.

Bond Street, London

London's top 10 venues

Value- % Change National Luxury Fashion Position Rank Venue VENUESCORE vs. 2015-16 TOURISTSCORE Rank Index (Avg=100) VENUESCORE (Avg=100)

London, West End 1,625 0% 125 125 510 London, City 823 2% 127 105 151 London, Midtown 369 4% 121 110 62 Central London, Top 10 Venues 1 Oxford Street 497 -1% 10 121 118 125 2 Covent Garden 313 -1% 30 136 119 106 3 Knightsbridge 279 -2% 41 171 125 157 4 Regent Street 187 1% 94 147 111 73 5 Angel 165 4% 134 116 122 30 6 Kings Cross/St Pancras 139 9% 167 127 105 44 7 Belgravia 125 5% 192 109 109 28 8 Victoria 117 4% 205 119 96 20 9 London Bridge 103 -6% 244 118 114 22 10 Cheapside 102 -6% 246 133 110 26 Inner London, Top 10 Venues 1 Westfield London SC 328 -4% 23 140 116 102 2 Westfield Stratford City SC 327 4% 26 126 117 78 3 Docklands 229 0% 57 133 108 64 4 Kings Road 210 -1% 72 145 123 42 5 Camden Town 168 -1% 128 106 122 26 6 Clapham Junction 167 0% 130 110 105 30 7 Hammersmith 167 -2% 130 103 103 25 8 Kensington 165 -1% 134 125 116 42 9 Putney 156 -4% 144 111 106 25 10 Wandsworth 139 9% 170 106 114 28 Outer London, Top 10 Venues 1 Kingston upon Thames 382 -3% 18 120 110 86 2 Croydon 328 -6% 23 100 104 42 3 Bromley 286 -3% 38 112 109 60 4 Romford 258 -5% 45 95 102 30 5 Watford 254 -5% 47 105 104 43 6 Sutton 199 -5% 82 97 101 23 7 Harrow 184 -3% 98 96 101 25 8 Uxbridge 183 -5% 100 101 104 26 9 Richmond upon Thames 184 -1% 98 132 116 43 10 Brent Cross SC 180 -4% 102 130 111 37 Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Market Position The Market Position London venues continue to lead Index provides a useful guide for As the largest and most differentiated non-food spending sector, the fashion offer is distinguishing often key for consumers when choosing a particular shopping venue. It is important between shopping for retailers to understand how venues differ in terms of market positioning (e.g. venues based quality/price) in order to find the optimum locations for their format. upon their relative positioning along The Market Position Index provides a useful guide for distinguishing between shopping venues based upon their relative positioning along a spectrum running a spectrum from from Value to Luxury (as illustrated below). The fashion offer (together with some Value to Luxury. easily classifiable operators from other categories) is used to profile each venue.

Each venue has an estimated average market position score based on the retailers present, with the Market Position Index for each venue then calculated by comparing the venue’s market position score against the average for all venues (down to Major District grade).

Luxury Upscale Appeal

Value Discount Focus

Major District status venues and above with the strongest bias towards either the upper or lower end of the market position spectrum are shown below. Upscale venues are dominated by central London – providing six of the 10 most upscale offers. Three of the UK’s top 10 Luxury locations are occupied by terminals at Heathrow Airport (T2, T3 and T5).

At the other end of the spectrum, Wythenshawe, Belle Vale and Grays are defined as the UK’s most downmarket retail venues.

Value Luxury Rank (most downmarket) (most upmarket)

Wythenshawe 1 Bond Street Belle Vale (Liverpool) 2 Bicester Village FO Grays 3 Knightsbridge Salford SC 4 Marylebone Lower Edmonton 5 Heathrow T3 Leith (Edinburgh) 6 Heathrow T5 Peterlee 7 Heathrow T2 Erdington (Birmingham) 8 Regent Street Castleford 9 Kings Road Motherwell 10 Hamptstead Ellesmere Port 11 Portobello Road Blyth 12 York Designer Outlet FO Huyton (Liverpool) 13 Westfield London SC Boscombe 14 Carnaby Street Rotherham 15 Ashford Designer FO Longton (Stoke-on-Trent) 16 Swindon Designer Outlet FO Dudley 17 Gunwharf Quays FO Aberdare 18 Covent Garden Kings Heath (Birmingham) 19 Gatwick South Wallasey 20 Cheshire Oaks FO

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Food Orientation An integrated London dominates in the foodservice offer foodservice offer has now become Successful shopping venues are no longer solely defined by the strength of the a key value driver retail offer available to consumers – an integrated foodservice offer (often referred and an increasingly to as F&B) has now become a key value driver and an increasingly important important component of the venue’s overall ‘brand proposition’. component of the venue’s overall There are several reasons that underpin this trend, including the surge in private equity investment in fast-growth foodservice operators and the subsequent fast- ‘brand proposition’. tracked roll-out of new outlets, the relative immunity of foodservice from the growth of online shopping, and also the rise of leisure activities and eating out as an increasingly essential part of any shopping or leisure trip for consumers.

The casual dining sector has experienced rapid growth globally over the past few years, a trend anticipated to continue. There remains a great opportunity for casual dining operators to roll-out an increasing number of stores across the UK and across a variety of venue types. Byron, CAU and Wahaca provide a good testament to this trend with an ever increasing number of stores. For instance, Wahaca’s store estate has increased by more than 30% over the last year.

In Tier 1 venues (~60 Major City and Major Regional destinations), Covent Garden has the most food orientated offer. F&B makes up 40% of Covent Garden’s total retail offer with foodservice operators such as Benugo, Bill’s and Jamie Oliver’s. Conversely, Darlington has the weakest F&B offer, with only 11% of units dedicated to foodservice operators highlighting an opportunity to develop its catering offer. Manchester, Oxford and Brighton lead the way outside of London.

In Tier 2 venues (>300 Regional and Sub-Regional destinations), Soho has the strongest foodservice offer (~70% of its retail offer). Honest Burger, Joe & The Juice and Busaba Eathai are just a few of the caterers contributing to Soho’s strong F&B performance. Interestingly, in Tier 2 venues, all of the top 10 Covent Garden, London most food orientated destinations are London based. London is by far the most advanced region in terms of F&B provision.

Tier Rank Most food orientated venue Least food orientated venue 1 Covent Garden Darlington 2 Manchester Harrogate 3 Oxford Livingston 4 Brighton Knightsbridge Tier 1 5 Leeds The Trafford Centre SC/Barton Square 6 Newcastle upon Tyne Solihull Major City + Major Regional 7 Cardiff Hull 8 Bristol Meadowhall SC 9 Reading Chelmsford 10 Birmingham Westfield London SC 1 Soho Nuneaton 2 London Bridge Falkirk 3 Paddington Corby 4 Holborn Buxton Tier 2 5 Belgravia Cwmbran 6 Ludgate Hill Ashford Designer FO Regional + Sub-Regional 7 Spitalfields Accrington 8 Baker Street Coleraine 9 Strand Birkenhead 10 Cannon Street Cribbs Causeway SC

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Travel Airport retail is a Retail continues to grow in importance within travel hubs strong opportunity for retailers, Although shopping in travel hubs is not the primary function, these destinations as operators are of growing importance to retailers and travel hub operators alike. Retail have a detailed offers within smaller railway stations in particular are primarily focused towards understanding convenience-led retailers, concentrating on food-to-go and items for use on the of the passenger journey to cater for frequent and time-poor passengers. Airport environments profile, allowing on the other hand provide an opportunity for retailers to take advantage of a captured audience with longer dwell times, with the flying population also more for a targeted affluent than the average UK population. retail offer to be developed. Of the UK’s largest airports, Heathrow T3, T4 and T5 have the most premium market position, well above expected levels for a retail offer of its size. T3 and T4 are hubs for long haul international travel and the main terminals for passengers travelling to and from BRIC nations dealing with ~26 million passengers per annum. Meanwhile, T5 is the home of the national flag carrier, British Airways. T5 passengers have a high spending power, hence retailers such as Burberry, Gucci and Cartier are suitable. Other termini, such as Gatwick and many of the regional airports, have strengthened their commercial proposition to cater more towards a low cost carrier focussed passenger mix.

Airport retail is a strong opportunity for retailers, as operators have a detailed understanding – and more importantly data – of the passenger profile passing through, allowing for a targeted retail offer to be developed.

90 LHR Terminal 5 80

LGW South Terminal LHR Terminal 3 60 Stansted Airport LGW North Terminal 50 Birmingham Airport LHR Terminal 2 LHR Terminal 4 40 MAN Terminal 1 MALLSCORE Luton Airport 30 Edinburgh Airport MAN GlasgowTerminal Airport2 20 Newcastle Airport MAN Terminal 3

0 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Market Position Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

St Pancras’s market orientation is well above all other rail destinations as its function differs hugely. Itsole, r and retail offer, is more alike to that of an airport due to the significant number of international passengers using the Eurostar to international destinations (leading to longer dwell time), which is reflected in its more up-market retail offer.

Following the recent redevelopment, London Waterloo, Liverpool Street and Kings Cross have strengthened the market position of their retail offer. This indicates the potential for other rail termini with a similar user profile to follow suit.

80 St Pancras Station

Victoria Rail Station 60

50 LiverpoolWaterloo St Rail StationRail Station Euston Rail Station

MALLSCORE 40 Paddington Rail Station Kings Cross Rail Station Leeds Rail StationPiccadilly Rail Station 30 Central Rail Station

10 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Market Position Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Fashion Position Spitalfields has Spitalfields paves the way for progressive retailers climbed into the top 10, now In assessing the relative 'fashionability' of shopping venues, a similar approach is ranking as the most used as that described in the Market Position section, assessing fashion retailers progressive UK across a spectrum running from progressive through to traditional. London venue, whereas destinations dominate as the most progressive venues as the city is seen as the Bridport in Dorset ideal location for flagship stores and first stores for international brands making is the most their first foray into the UK. Spitalfields has climbed into the top 10, now ranking as the most progressive UK venue, whereas Bridport in Dorset is the most traditional venue. traditional venue.

Traditional Rank Progressive Bridport 1 Spitalfields Llandudno 2 Portobello Road Market Harborough 3 Bond Street Sevenoaks 4 Knightsbridge Marlborough 5 Hampstead Brentwood 6 Kings Road Southsea 7 Angel Penrith 8 Camden Town Farnham 9 Marylebone Eltham 10 Carnaby Street

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Spitalfields Market, London

Age Position Carnaby Street attracts the youngest consumers

By identifying those multiple retailers with particularly strong young (e.g. Hollister, H&M, Miss Selfridge, Blue Inc., Game, Base Menswear) or old (e.g. Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Evans) orientation, it is possible to compare venues based on their overall appeal to different age cohorts.

Venues such as Bangor (Wales) and Carnaby Street have a relatively young retail focus. A large number of these top 10 ‘young’ venues host universities, accounting for the youthful orientation of the retail offer. Carnaby Street and Oxford Street are at the forefront of innovative retail which attract unique and new retailers appealing to younger shoppers.

Meanwhile, venues with the strongest bias towards older shoppers include provincial market towns such as Marlborough, Nantwich and Stamford whereby the retail offer within the venue Carnaby Street, London reflects the age orientation of its catchment.

Oldest Rank Youngest

Marlborough 1 Bangor (Wales)

Nantwich 2 Carnaby Street

Stamford 3 East Kilbride

Sevenoaks 4 Oxford Street

Saffron Walden 5 Dunfermline

Lymington 6 Wandsworth

Ringwood 7 Enfield

Dorchester 8 Bexleyheath

Chichester 9 Swansea

Stratford-upon-Avon 10 Hinckley

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Tourist Venues Travel hubs lead the way

Knightsbridge and Bicester Village Factory Outlet provide the greatest mix of retailers appealing to the tourist shopper. Of the top 10 ranking tourist venues, travel hubs account for three, including London Heathrow T3 and T5 along with Gatwick South. These travel hub venues host many retailers attractive to tourists such as Fortnum & Mason, Gucci and Salvatore Ferragamo.

TOURISTSCORE Index Rank Venue (Avg=100)

1 Knightsbridge 479 2 Bicester Village FO 426 3 Heathrom T5 426 4 Bond Street 410 5 Piccadilly 393 6 Heathrow T3 359 7 Gatwick Airport South 350 8 Carnaby Street 343 9 Regent Street 333 10 Gunwharf Quays FO 317

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Knightsbridge, London

Internationalisation Regent Street is a destination for international retailers

Looking at the theme of non-domestic influences from another perspective, the orientation of the UK venues towards incoming foreign brands offers an additional insight into their perceived status within the UK retail hierarchy.

Using Javelin Group's GLOBALSCORE Index, Regent Street is the most globally orientated venue in the UK, with 36% of its total multiple provision accounted for by international retailer brands. Of the 20 most globally oriented venues in the UK, six are located in central London, including Regent Street and Knightsbridge. Cheshire Oaks and Bluewater are the only non-London venues with the highest GLOBALSCORE.

GLOBALSCORE % of GLOBALSCORE Rank Top 20 of leading 100 Javelin Venues VENUESCORE GLOBALSCORE VENUESCORE Index

1 Regent Street 202 72 36% 273 2 Westfield London SC 347 108 31% 235 3 Knightsbridge 286 80 28% 196 4 Westfield Stratford City SC 336 88 26% 190 5 Brent Cross SC 187 46 25% 191 6 Cheshire Oaks FO/Coliseum RP 204 49 24% 191 7 Bluewater SC 343 74 22% 169 8 Oxford Street 535 114 21% 183 9 Covent Garden 322 68 21% 169 10 The Trafford Centre SC/Barton Square 321 62 19% 145 11 Belfast 433 80 18% 184 12 Meadowhall SC 315 58 18% 162 13 Metrocentre SC 268 47 18% 154 14 Kingston upon Thames 401 70 17% 151 15 Kings Road 224 38 17% 124 16 Lakeside SC 272 45 17% 149 17 Southampton 358 59 16% 162 18 Brighton 522 84 16% 138 19 Bromley 306 49 16% 153 20 Basingstoke 240 37 15% 134

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Regional Analysis Many regions continue to be under-shopped

The table below summarises the overall characteristics of the retail supply available nationally across the UK regions.

The table also includes an assessment of the extent to which multiple retail penetrates different UK regions by comparing resident population (weighted for affluence) against each region’s aggregate VENUESCORE.

The ratio of Weighted Population per VENUESCORE Point identifies London, the East Midlands, the East of England as the UK’s most under-supplied regions (relative to their spend-weighted populations), whilst the North East and North West appear to be the most multiple-penetrated areas. The North East is a major over-shopped outlier relative to all other UK regions.

Weighted Total Value-Luxury Population Affluence Population per Under- / over- Region VENUESCORE index (000) index VENUESCORE shopped index (avg=100) (avg=100) Point (avg=100)

Total UK 175,281 100 63,182 100 360 100

East Midlands 11,327 93 4,563 96 387 93

East of England 15,449 100 5,878 102 388 93

London 24,048 111 8,148 123 417 86

North East 7,336 92 2,591 79 279 129

North West 19,419 94 7,059 89 324 111

Northern Ireland 4,823 97 1,811 97 364 99

Scotland 15,980 95 5,326 102 340 106

South East 24,586 104 8,698 108 382 94

South West 15,609 103 5,277 109 369 98

Wales/Cymru 8,579 94 3,045 91 323 112

West Midlands 14,444 94 5,594 91 352 102

Yorkshire and The Humber 13,681 98 5,252 86 330 109

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017) The Index shown here is inversed whereby a high score indicates a potential over-provision of retail.

The table below shows the proportion of the total retail offer provided by foodservice at a regional level.

There is huge variation between regions, with London’s foodservice provision the highest in the UK, whereas for Northern Ireland, foodservice is less than 10% of the total (based on multiple operator provision).

These differentials indicate the scale of category shift that could occur across the UK regions in the coming years as foodservice (combined with other Leisure operators) becomes an increasingly important component of the nation’s multiple retail offer.

Total Total FOODSCORE Region VENUESCORE FOODSCORE as % of total

Total UK 175,281 26,970 15%

East Midlands 11,327 1,632 14%

East of England 15,449 2,143 14%

London 24,048 6,113 25%

North East 7,336 873 12%

North West 19,419 3,085 16%

Northern Ireland 4,823 442 9%

Scotland 15,980 1,797 11%

South East 24,586 3,722 15%

South West 15,609 2,155 14%

Wales/Cymru 8,579 1,122 13%

West Midlands 14,444 2,129 15%

Yorkshire and The Humber 13,681 1,757 13%

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

ORDER VENUESCORE 2017

The full VENUESCORE 2017 report can be licensed annually and is delivered as an Excel spreadsheet and a Tableau dashboard.

The full dataset contains the following rankings tables:

1. National ranking National rankings for the UK’s leading shopping venues (e.g. Major City to Major District grade)

2. Alphabetical ranking Full ranking of UK retail venues presented in alphabetical order (e.g. Major City to Local grade)

3. Rankings by region All venues ranked within their region (e.g. London, South East, N.Ireland)

4. Rankings by local authority Ranks all venues by local authority to assist in local retail hierarchy planning

5. MALLSCORE ranking Ranking UK shopping centres, retail parks, outlet

centres and transport hubs Example tables in Tableau format.

Order VENUESCORE 2017

To order your copy of the full VENUESCORE 2017 dataset for £1,500 + VAT, please email [email protected] and include the following information: name, position, company name to appear on invoice, company VAT number, invoice address and telephone number. Thank you for your order.

ABOUT JAVELIN GROUP

Javelin Group, part of Accenture Strategy, provides strategy consulting and digital transformation services to the world’s leading retailers and consumer brands.

Javelin Group helps clients improve their competitiveness by anticipating and responding to the rapid changes in customer shopping habits and retail technologies. Javelin Group, which serves retail and brand leaders across Europe, North America, the Middle East and Australia, supports clients with their strategies, operations, technologies, locations and analytics. In June 2015, Javelin Group was acquired by Accenture to spearhead its capabilities in digital retail transformation within Accenture Strategy, and remains a separate but connected business unit within the firm.

Our Locations & Analytics team, which has worked with more than 210 retailers and brand clients, combines information on stores, catchments and spending with a detailed knowledge of shopping venues across Europe to advise retail companies on:

1. Roll-out potential of expanding chains 2. Store portfolio review to establish investment/exit priorities 3. Sales forecasting 4. Site-specific evaluations for town centre and out-of-town retailers 5. Catchment analysis (RETAILNATION) 6. Store grading and local merchandising 7. Retail store performance benchmarking (SHOPSCORE) 8. Market analysis software tools (e.g. Alteryx, Tableau) 9. Consumer data and segmentation

If you would like to discuss your retail locations and analytics requirements, please contact Robin Bevan, Director of Locations & Analytics practice at Javelin Group, at [email protected] or on +44 (0)20 7961 3200. For more information about Javelin Group, please visit www.javelingroup.com.

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