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Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Stock Price: 387.70 CHF

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Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Stock Price: 387.70 CHF SINGULAR DILIGENCE Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Stock Price: 387.70 CHF EV/Sales EV/Gross Profit EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/Owner Earnings Gross EBITDA EBIT Seiko 0.71 2.13 8.39 15.71 14.21 81% 80% 81% 80% 81% Movado 0.79 1.47 5.49 6.62 6.62 80% 79% 79% 79% 79% 78% 78% 79% 78% 77% 77% 77% 75% Citizen 0.90 2.34 7.34 11.76 10.07 Fossil 1.32 2.31 8.06 8.30 8.30 LVMH 2.82 4.36 11.35 15.12 15.12 Richemont 3.95 6.22 15.24 17.37 17.37 Minimum 0.71 1.47 5.49 6.62 6.62 Maximum 3.95 6.22 15.24 17.37 17.37 Median 1.11 2.32 8.23 13.44 12.14 Mean 1.75 3.14 9.31 12.48 11.95 29% 27% 27% 26% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% Standard Deviation 1.33 1.80 3.47 4.33 4.24 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21% 22% 20% 20% 20% 21% 20% 20% 17% 17% 18% Variation 76% 57% 37% 35% 35% 16% 16% 16% 17% 14% 14% 15% Swatch 2.25 NMF 9.30 11.20 9.61 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Minimum Maximum Median Mean Standard Deviation Variation Sales 2,970 3,185 3,518 4,131 4,048 3,933 3,845 3,981 4,292 4,820 5,646 5,677 5,142 6,108 6,764 7,796 8,456 8,709 2,970 8,709 4,556 5,168 1,775 34% Gross Profit 2,291 2,449 2,651 3,194 3,159 3,137 3,082 3,206 3,369 3,852 4,564 4,623 4,048 4,834 5,342 6,162 6,586 6,866 2,291 6,866 3,611 4,079 1,410 35% EBITDA 596 641 715 908 845 842 810 863 934 1,168 1,440 1,422 1,123 1,658 1,843 2,245 2,218 2,110 596 2,245 1,029 1,243 556 45% EBIT 408 442 511 694 656 644 608 660 735 973 1,236 1,202 903 1,436 1,614 1,984 1,914 1,752 408 1,984 819 1,021 521 51% Receivables 522 606 680 691 675 666 654 677 729 813 804 747 739 805 977 1,067 1,091 522 1,091 729 761 155 20% Inventory 1,027 1,106 1,163 1,289 1,402 1,462 1,548 1,670 1,801 2,075 2,506 2,741 2,806 3,270 4,039 4,917 5,685 1,027 5,685 1,801 2,382 1,387 58% PP&E 907 994 1,019 1,043 1,063 1,079 1,123 1,157 1,179 1,281 1,411 1,463 1,474 1,577 1,794 2,097 2,641 907 2,641 1,179 1,371 454 33% Working Liabilities 377 368 521 644 602 573 579 618 666 786 787 678 719 858 1,005 1,157 1,220 368 1,220 666 715 238 33% Net Tangible Assets 2,079 2,338 2,341 2,378 2,537 2,634 2,747 2,886 3,043 3,383 3,934 4,273 4,300 4,794 5,805 6,924 8,197 2,079 8,197 3,043 3,799 1,759 46% MARGINS Gross 77% 77% 75% 77% 78% 80% 80% 81% 78% 80% 81% 81% 79% 79% 79% 79% 78% 79% 75% 81% 79% 79% 2% 0.02 EBITDA 20% 20% 20% 22% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 24% 26% 25% 22% 27% 27% 29% 26% 24% 20% 29% 22% 23% 3% 0.12 EBIT 14% 14% 15% 17% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 20% 22% 21% 18% 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 14% 25% 17% 19% 4% 0.20 TURNS Sales/Receivables 6.11 5.81 6.08 5.86 5.83 5.77 6.09 6.34 6.62 6.95 7.06 6.88 8.27 8.40 7.98 7.93 7.99 5.77 8.40 6.62 6.82 0.95 14% Sales/Inventories 3.10 3.18 3.55 3.14 2.81 2.63 2.57 2.57 2.68 2.72 2.27 1.88 2.18 2.07 1.93 1.72 1.53 1.53 3.55 2.57 2.50 0.57 23% Sales/PPE 3.51 3.54 4.05 3.88 3.70 3.57 3.54 3.71 4.09 4.41 4.02 3.52 4.14 4.29 4.35 4.03 3.30 3.30 4.41 3.88 3.86 0.34 9% Sales/NTA 1.53 1.50 1.76 1.70 1.55 1.46 1.45 1.49 1.58 1.67 1.44 1.20 1.42 1.41 1.34 1.22 1.06 1.06 1.76 1.46 1.46 0.18 12% RETURNS Gross Profit/NTA 118% 113% 136% 133% 124% 117% 117% 117% 127% 135% 118% 95% 112% 111% 106% 95% 84% 84% 136% 117% 115% 14% 0.12 EBITDA/NTA 31% 31% 39% 36% 33% 31% 31% 32% 38% 43% 36% 26% 39% 38% 39% 32% 26% 26% 43% 33% 34% 5% 0.14 EBIT/NTA 21% 22% 30% 28% 25% 23% 24% 25% 32% 37% 31% 21% 33% 34% 34% 28% 21% 21% 37% 28% 28% 5% 0.19 GROWTH Sales 7% 10% 17% -2% -3% -2% 4% 8% 12% 17% 1% -9% 19% 11% 15% 8% 3% -9% 19% 8% 7% 8% 1.20 Gross Profit 7% 8% 20% -1% -1% -2% 4% 5% 14% 18% 1% -12% 19% 11% 15% 7% 4% -12% 20% 7% 7% 9% 1.25 EBITDA 8% 12% 27% -7% 0% -4% 7% 8% 25% 23% -1% -21% 48% 11% 22% -1% -5% -21% 48% 8% 9% 16% 1.85 EBIT 8% 16% 36% -5% -2% -6% 9% 11% 32% 27% -3% -25% 59% 12% 23% -4% -8% -25% 59% 9% 11% 20% 1.91 Receivables 13% 19% 7% -3% -1% -1% -2% 9% 6% 17% -16% 4% -6% 25% 19% 1% 3% -16% 25% 4% 5% 11% 1.94 Inventory 16% 1% 10% 12% 6% 3% 9% 7% 9% 21% 20% 0% 5% 28% 20% 23% 10% 0% 28% 10% 12% 8% 0.72 PP&E 18% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 7% -1% 5% 13% 8% 0% 2% 12% 15% 18% 32% -1% 32% 5% 8% 9% 1.09 Working Liabilities -10% 6% 75% -5% -8% -2% 4% 9% 6% 29% -22% -3% 15% 23% 13% 17% -5% -22% 75% 6% 8% 21% 2.55 Net Tangible Assets 22% 5% -4% 8% 6% 2% 6% 4% 7% 15% 17% 1% 0% 23% 20% 19% 18% -4% 23% 7% 10% 9% 0.87 APRIL 2015 DURABILITY 3 SINGULAR DILIGENCE MOAT 5 Geoff Gannon, Writer Quan Hoang, Analyst QUALITY 7 Tobias Carlisle, Publisher CAPITAL ALLOCATION 9 VALUE 11 Swatch (Swiss Exchange: UHR) Gets Most of its Profits GROWTH 13 from Asia – Especially China MISJUDGMENT 15 CONCLUSION 16 APPRAISAL 19 OVERVIEW NOTES 21 Swatch is a Swiss watchmaker. It gets 97% of its sales from watches. So it is definitely correct to call the company a watchmaker. Whether it is correct to call the company “Swiss” is a little more complicated. Let me explain. Swatch is definitely Swiss in the sense that it is 40% owned by a Swiss family, it uses Swiss labor, and it assembles its watches in Switzerland. Many of the company’s brands are also historically Swiss brands. So, it is in almost every sense a completely Swiss company. The one sense in which it is not an especially Swiss company is in its sales. As will be explained in greater detail later – Quan and I estimate that Swatch may get as much as (or more than) 70% of its sales and profits from customers who live in Asia. That means Asians are the cause of 70% of the demand for Swatch products. More importantly, Swatch may get more than 50% of its Our best estimate is that 5% of Swatch’s profits are made on the sale sales and profits from people living in watches that are eventually given as bribes to Chinese officials China. Some of these people live in Canadians. People from these countries spend less on luxury goods relative to their Hong Kong. But a great many more live income than people from Europe and Asia. Also, watches are not expensive in the in the mainland of the People’s U.S. North Americans do not buy a lot of luxury goods when travelling overseas. They Republic of China. No official numbers don’t face high import taxes or value added taxes in their home countries. You can from Swatch give estimates this high. buy high end watches as cheaply – or more cheaply – in the U.S. than you can in However, the evidence supporting this other countries. This is not true of people in Asian countries. Many Asian countries at first shocking statement that China have high consumption taxes. They tax actual goods heavily. Asians also – relative to accounts for a majority of Swatch’s their income and the GDP of their economies – spend quite a lot on luxury goods.
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