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English PDF Revd Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MALAWI ECONOMIC MONITOR NOVEMBER 2017 MALAWI ECONOMIC MONITOR NOVEMBER 2017 LAND FOR INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT World Bank Office Malawi Mulanje House Capital City, PO Box 30557 Lilongwe 3, Malawi +265 (0) 1 770 611 www.worldbank.org/mw Acknowledgements This edition of the Malawi Economic Monitor was prepared by Priscilla Kandoole (Country Economist); Richard Record (Lead Economist); Klaus Deininger (Lead Economist); Sunganani Kalemba (Consultant); Ellie Stylianou (Consultant), Efrem Chilima (Senior Private Sector Specialist) and Linly Kufeyani (Intern). Christine Huemesser (Economist); Time Fatch (Senior Agriculture Economist); Geoffrey Magwede (Director of Railway Services, Ministry of Transport and Public Works) and Chikumbutso Mpando (Economist, Ministry of Transport and Public Works) provided additional contributions. Abebe Adugna (Practice Manager, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management); Gregory Toulmin (Country Manager, Malawi) and Bella Bird (Country Director, Malawi) provided overall guidance. The team wishes to thank Yutaka Yoshino (Program Leader); Andre Bald (Program Leader) and William Battaile (Lead Economist); peer reviewers Aghassi Mkrtchyan (Senior Country Economist) and Peter Goodman (Senior Agriculture Economist) as well as James Seward (Practice Manager, Finance and Markets); Robin Mearns (Practice Manager, Social Development); Steven Michael Pennings (Research Economist) and Jorge Luis Guzman Correa (Consultant) for their constructive input. This report benefited from fruitful discussions with, and comments and information provided by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development; the Reserve Bank of Malawi; the National Statistical Office; the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development; the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development; the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism; the Malawi Revenue Authority; and a number of other government ministries, departments and agencies. The team would also like to thank the National Statistical Office for allowing pre-dissemination access to the Fourth Integrated Household Survey (IHS4) 2016/17 data and representatives of the private sector in Lilongwe and Blantyre for their helpful contributions. Zeria Banda (Communications Officer) and Tinyade Kumsinda (Team Assistant) provided assistance with external communications, design and additional production support. Irfan Kortschak (Consultant) provided editorial support. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank’s Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The report is based on information current as of October 2017. The World Bank team welcomes feedback on the structure and content of the Malawi Economic Monitor. Please send comments to Richard Record ([email protected]) and/or Priscilla Kandoole ([email protected]). Cover Photo Credit: Illovo Malawi, featuring an aerial view of part of Illovo Malawi’s Dwangwa Sugar Estate showing the sugar mill, warehouses and cane fields, with Ethanol Company Limited at the back of the warehouses. Cover Design: Deguzman Kaminjolo, Hi Resolution Graphix, Blantyre. MALAWI ECONOMIC MONITOR NOVEMBER 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview .........................................................................................................................................................................................1 1. Economic developments ........................................................................................................................................................5 Sub-Saharan Africa is seeing early signs of a fragile recovery ................................................................................................. 5 Malawi’s economy is starting to recover after two years of climate-related shocks .......................................................... 5 Growth has not been conducive to poverty reduction............................................................................................................ 8 Safeguarding current gains is critical for Malawi’s long-term development ........................................................................ 9 Inflation has declined to single digit levels after six years in double digits ............................................................................. 9 Continued improvement in fiscal performance ....................................................................................................................... 10 Prudent fiscal management subject to risks, including those related to the political cycle ............................................ 12 The debt burden remains manageable but rising domestic debt may create stress ....................................................... 15 The Malawi Kwacha has remained stable against the US Dollar .......................................................................................... 16 Monetary policy is starting to ease, providing a welcome boost to investment ................................................................ 17 The mixed performance in export commodities has led to an overall decline in exports ............................................... 17 Decreased demand has resulted in a lower import bill .......................................................................................................... 21 While the banking sector remains sound, there has been a rise in non-performing loans ............................................... 22 Steps towards improving the business environment ................................................................................................................ 24 A return to growth offers an opportunity to refocus policy efforts on structural reforms ................................................... 24 2. Special topic: land rights for diversification, equity, and resilience ...................................................................................28 The far-reaching impact of land rights ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Clarifying estate tenure to increase agricultural productivity and public revenue ........................................................... 31 The potential of urban land tenure ............................................................................................................................................. 37 The urgent need to strengthen the quality of land data and to improve service delivery .............................................. 37 Harnessing the 2016 Land Acts for inclusive development .................................................................................................... 39 How to realize the land sector’s potential to benefit Malawi as a whole ........................................................................... 40 Data ...............................................................................................................................................................................................42 References ....................................................................................................................................................................................43 MALAWI ECONOMIC MONITOR NOVEMBER 2017 BOXES Box 1: Governance for development: The case of Malawi ................................................................................................ 7 Box 2: Incentivizing agricultural diversification to achieve improved nutrition and resilience in Malawi ................. 15 Box 3: Opportunities created by the Nacala Development Corridor ............................................................................. 18 Box 4: The potential of mobile money for financial inclusion and gender empowerment ......................................... 23 Box 5: How can Malawi double its real income? ................................................................................................................ 26 FIGURES Figure 1: Growth has recovered following a resumption in agriculture production… ................................................... 6 Figure 2: …but productivity remains below the regional average .................................................................................... 6 Figure 3: The policy effectiveness cycle .................................................................................................................................... Figure 4: Malawi’s inflation rate is descending towards that of other countries in the region … ............................... 10 Figure 5: … although with significant variation between rural and urban rates ........................................................... 10 Figure 6: The fiscal deficit continues to narrow after two years of shocks … ................................................................. 11 Figure 7:…aided by higher than expected outturn in revenue collection..................................................................... 11 Figure 8: Recurrent spending to ease: less subsidies, reduced interest payments and a steady wage bill ............. 13 Figure 9: Budgetary composition has changed as priorities shifted from agriculture to education.......................... 13 Figure 10: Pressure on the Malawi Kwacha
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