Off Track: Sub-Saharan African Railways
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
BACKGROUND PAPER 17 Off Track: Sub-Saharan African Railways Richard Bullock NOVEMBER 2009 © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved A publication of the World Bank. The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. About AICD This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world’s knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. AICD will provide a baseline against which future improvements in infrastructure services can be measured, making it possible to monitor the results achieved from donor support. It should also provide a better empirical foundation for prioritizing investments and designing policy reforms in Africa’s infrastructure sectors. AICD is based on an unprecedented effort to collect detailed economic and technical data on African infrastructure. The project has produced a series of reports (such as this one) on public expenditure, spending needs, and sector performance in each of the main infrastructure sectors—energy, information and communication technologies, irrigation, transport, and water and sanitation. Africa’s Infrastructure—A Time for Transformation, published by the World Bank in November 2009, synthesizes the most significant findings of those reports. AICD was commissioned by the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa after the 2005 G-8 summit at Gleneagles, which recognized the importance of scaling up donor finance for infrastructure in support of Africa’s development. The first phase of AICD focused on 24 countries that together account for 85 percent of the gross domestic product, population, and infrastructure aid flows of Sub- Saharan Africa. The countries are: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Under a second phase of the project, coverage is expanding to include as many other African countries as possible. Consistent with the genesis of the project, the main focus is on the 48 countries south of the Sahara that face the most severe infrastructure challenges. Some components of the study also cover North African countries so as to provide a broader point of reference. Unless otherwise stated, therefore, the term “Africa” will be used throughout this report as shorthand for “Sub-Saharan Africa.” The World Bank is implementing AICD with the guidance of a steering committee that represents the African Union, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), Africa’s regional economic communities, the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and major infrastructure donors. Financing for AICD is provided by a multidonor trust fund to which the main contributors are the U.K.’s Department for International Development, the Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Agence Française de Développement, the European Commission, and Germany’s KfW Entwicklungsbank. The Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program and the Water and Sanitation Program provided technical support on data collection and analysis pertaining to their respective sectors. A group of distinguished peer reviewers from policy-making and academic circles in Africa and beyond reviewed all of the major outputs of the study to ensure the technical quality of the work. The data underlying AICD’s reports, as well as the reports themselves, are available to the public through an interactive Web site, www.infrastructureafrica.org, that allows users to download customized data reports and perform various simulations. Inquiries concerning the availability of data sets should be directed to the editors at the World Bank in Washington, DC. Contents Note vi Summary vii The networks—lightly used and in poor condition vii Investment—how much can be justified? ix The market—small by world standards x Passenger services—a declining market for all except commuters xi Freight—improving the level of service should be the priority xi Institutional arrangements—patchy progress xii Concessions—becoming the norm xii Financial performance—generally not sustainable xiii The verdict on concessions—usually beneficial but not the full answer xiv Key issues going forward xv 1 Introduction 1 2 The railways 4 The networks 4 Traffic density 9 Infrastructure condition 9 Network expansion proposals 12 3 Infrastructure investment and maintenance 15 Infrastructure 16 Economic evaluation of infrastructure investment 18 Economics of mechanized track maintenance 23 Indicative investment needs of Sub-Saharan railways 24 4 The market 26 Traffic trends 28 Passenger traffic 30 Freight traffic 32 Competition 37 Freight services 39 5 Institutional arrangements 44 Legal and regulatory framework 44 Governance and management of state-owned railways 46 Structure of concessions 46 Concessionaires 51 6 Operational performance 53 Overview 53 Labor productivity 53 Rolling-stock productivity 55 Locomotive productivity 56 Impact of concessioning on productivity 59 Service quality 60 7 Financial performance 62 Revenue and cost structure 62 Financial results 65 iii Passenger services 66 Freight services 69 Concession financing issues 71 8 The way ahead 75 Concession performance 76 Four key issues 78 References 82 Appendix 1 Rail networks in Africa 83 Appendix 2 Production structure (average, 1995–2005) 85 Appendix 3 Freight composition, select railway companies (as % of total tonnage) 86 Appendix 4 Average yields (1995–2005) 87 Appendix 5 Rail links proposed by the Union of African Railways in 1979 88 iv Figures and tables Table A Summary network and traffic statistics Table 2.1 Union of African Railways ten-corridor master plan Table 3.1 Economic internal rate of return on track rehabilitation Table 5.1 Key features of concessions, 1993–2008 Table 5.2 Initial concession shareholdings Table 6.1 Locomotive utilization and availability in Tanzania, 2001 Figure A Average network traffic density Figure B Average traffic volume Figure C Labor productivity (current) Figure 1.1 What might have been—the Trans-Sahara and Cape-to-Cairo railways Figure 2.1 Rail map of Sub-Saharan Africa [replace with 2008 map] Figure 2.2 Network size and traffic, by region Figure 2.3 Network traffic density Figure 3.1 Alternative tamping strategies Figure 4.1 Passenger and freight traffic on African railways Figure 4.2 Average distance traveled on African railways Figure 4.3 Traffic growth on African railways Figure 4.4 Concession passenger traffic Figure 4.5 Concession freight traffic Figure 4.6 Passengers, by class, in Tanzania and Botswana Figure 4.7 Commodities carried on select Sub-Saharan railways Figure 4.8 Traffic mix on select Sub-Saharan railways Figure 4.9 Domestic and international freight traffic on Sub-Saharan railways Figure 4.10 Average yields for passenger and freight traffic Figure 4.11 Average yields by commodity for select Sub-Saharan railways Figure 4.12 Comparison of bus and rail fares and travel times Figure 4.13 Minerals transported by road and rail—Ghana Figure 4.14 Indicative freight rates—12-meter container ex port Figure 5.1 Railway concessions awarded in Africa since 1990 Figure 6.1 Labor productivity on Sub-Saharan railways Figure 6.2 Locomotive productivity Figure 6.3 Passenger car and freight wagon productivity Figure 6.4 Impact of concessioning on labor and asset productivity Figure 7.1 Cost structure—select systems Figure 7.2 Unit costs—select systems Figure 7.3 Cost per traffic unit Figure 7.4 Revenue and cost per carriage-km Figure 7.5 Passenger cost recovery—select systems Figure 7.6 Revenue and cost per wagon-km Figure 7.7 Freight cost recovery—select systems Figure 7.8 Financing structure of selected concessions Figure 7.9 Concession fees, taxes, and projected profits v Note This report contains a number of tables and