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The Rural Vote and the Rise of the Labour Party, 1931-1935

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The Rural Vote and the Rise of the Labour Party, 1931-1935 THE RURAL VOTE AND THE RISE OF THE LABOUR PARTY, 1931-1935. A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History in the University of Canterbury by Stephen W. McLeod University of Canterbury 2005 Contents List of Figures .............................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 Map of Urban Polling Areas Exceeding 10 Percent of the Electorate's Votes, 10 Rural (Dairying) Electorates in the North Island of New Zealand, 1935 ................................................................ 11 Part I: Backgroulld .................................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2: FIistoliography ........................................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 3: Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 41 Part II: Case Studies .................................................................................................................................. 54 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 54 Chapter 4: The Waikato Electorate 1935 ..................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 5: The Raglan Electorate 1935 ....................................................................................................... 73 Chapter 6: The Tauranga Electorate 1935 .................................................................................................... 87 Chapter 7: The Marsden Electorate 1935 ................................................................................................... 102 Chapter 8: The Manawatu Electorate 1935 ................................................................................................ 115 Chapter 9: The Rauraki Electorate 1935 .................................................................................................... 127 Chapter 10: Bay of Plenty Electorate 1935 ................................................................................................ 137 Chapter 11: The Thames Electorate 1935 .................................................................................................. 149 Chapter 12: The Waimarino Electorate 1935 ............................................................................................. 160 Chapter 13: The Egmont Electorate 1935 .................................................................................................. 172 Part III: Further Investigations ............................................................................................................... 180 Chapter 14: The Waikato Electorate 1938 ................................................................................................. 180 Part IV: Conclusion and Appendices ....................................................................................................... 188 Chapter 15: Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 188 Summaries of the 10 test cases .................................................................................................................. 197 Bay of Plenty ............................................................................................................................................ 197 Hauraki ..................................................................................................................................................... 197 Manawatu ................................................................................................................................................. 198 Marsden .................................................................................................................................................... 198 Raglan ...................................................................................................................................................... 198 Tauranga .................................................................................................................................................. 199 Thames ..................................................................................................................................................... 199 Waikato .................................................................................................................................................... 199 Waimarino ................................................................................................................................................. 200 Egmont ..................................................................................................................................................... 200 Summary of research hypothesis findings ................................................................................................. 200 Final remarks ............................................................................................................................................ 202 Afterword ................................................................................................................................................. 206 Appendix A: Notes on statistical methods ................................................................................................. 207 Appendix B: List of representative occupations ......................................................................................... 212 Appendix C: Comparison between Percentage Changes in Census Numbers 1926-1936, and Percentage Changes in Electoral Roll Numbers 1928-1935, 10 Rural Electorates ....................... 214 Appendix D: Electoral Quota and Permissible Variations, 1881-1987 ............................................ 215 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. 216 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 230 4 List of Figures Figure IT-I: Comparison between Four Male Occupational CategOlies as Percentages of Electoral Roll and Percentage of Each Electorate Deemed to be Rural Residents, Set Against Chapman's Electorate Typology, 10 Rural Electorates 1935 ............................................................... 57 Figure IT-2: Percentage of Labour, Nationalist, Minor Party Votes, and Labour Vote Margin, Nine Rural Electorates 1935 ....................................................................................... 61 Figure 4-1: Polling Places by Percentage of Party Vote and Decreasing Percentage of Electorate Vote, Waikato Electorate 1935 ........................................................................................... 63 Figure 4-2: Polling Places by Decreasing Electorate Vote Share and Percentages of Four Male Occupational Categories, Waikato Electorate 1935 ..................................................... 65 Figure 4-3: Polling Places by Percent Farmer Less Percent Manual, and Percent Labour less Percent Nationalist Vote, Waikato Electorate 1935 ............................................. 66 Figure 5-1: Polling Places by Percentage of Party Vote and by Decreasing Percentage of Electorate Vote, Raglan Electorate 1935 ...................................................................... 75 Figure 5-2: Polling Places by Percentages of Four Male Occupational Categories, Raglan Electorate 1935 .................................................................................................................................................. 77 Figure 5-3: Polling Places by Percent Farmer Plus Farm worker, Less Percent Manual Plus White-collar; and by Percent Labour Less Percent Nationalist Vote, Raglan Electorate 1935 .............. 79 Figure 5-4: Polling Places by Labour Vote, Aggregated Nationalist and Democrat Vote, Farmer Proportions, and Aggregated Manual, White-collar, and Farm worker Proportions, Raglan Electorate 1935 ...................................................................................................... 81 Figure 6-1: Polling Places by Decreasing Percentage of Electorate Votes, and by Vote Percentages of Four Parties, Tauranga Electorate 1935 ................................................. 88 Figure 6-2: Party Vote Percentages in Six Polling Place Groupings, Tauranga Electorate 1935 ................... 90 Figure 6-3: Polling Places by Decreasing Percentage of Electorate Vote and by Percentages of Four Male Occupational Categories, Tauranga Electorate 1935 ............................................
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