March 2018 ISSN 1864-3973 HYPER TENSION Diagnosis: The US president and his “America first” policies are a shock to the international system. What treatments should be prescribed? pages 10 / 11 Extra time First defense GERMANY The SPD has given the green light to the next It’s time for a real European security initiative IS GOOD grand coalition with Merkel’s Union to bridge the gulf between rhetoric and reality FOR THE UN scandal revealed that the country is also There are two dominant paradigms for BY THEO SOMMER far from meeting its goal of reducing BY MARK LEONARD pondering European defense: promoting EDITORIAL BY PUBLISHER toxic emissions. The future of work, integration and building capabilities. But DETLEF PRINZ ermany is back. Almost six education, pensions, healthcare and his is the hour of Europe – a by trying to pursue both goals within its months after the inconclu- elderly care all require much attention. unique opportunity to unite a first few steps, the EU risks achieving In summer 2018, the 72nd General Gsive federal elections last Sep- Rescuing the dilapidated public infra- Tdivided continent by showing neither. Assembly of the United Nations in tember, after tortuous negotiations structure – roads, bridges, schools and that unity is the first line of defense in a The launch of Permanent Structured New York will decide on Germany’s between five of the seven parties in the universities, railways and army barracks dangerous world. But thus far there is a Cooperation (PESCO) triggered a big application for a seat on the Bundestag and after heart-wrenching – from further decay, modernizing the continent-sized gulf between the Euro- debate between the pro-integration and Security Council in 2019 and 2020. soul-searching among the Social Dem- tax system and boosting domestic secu- pean government’s rhetoric on global the pro-capability camps. PESCO now Germany’s application for one ocrats on whether to team up once rity pose additional challenges. disorder and the unambitious, techno- has 25 members, including some whose of the non-permanent seats was more with the CDU and its Bavarian Fortunately, Germany is buoyant. The cratic initiatives it has launched. There stated goal is to block EU integration announced in June 2016 by then sister party CSU, another grand coali- rate of employment is at its highest ever, is still much time remaining to close it. (such as Hungary) and those whose prin- Foreign Minister Frank-Walter tion has been given the green light. and unemployment at its lowest since A thought experiment: Imagine it was ciple goal is to obstruct cooperation with Steinmeier. On March 14, Angela Merkel will be reunification. Exports have reached a still 2007, and you were asked to identify NATO (such as Cyprus). Maybe coun- As a German citizen, I like the idea sworn in as chancellor of the Federal record high. The economy is running the most extreme scenario that would tries that fail to make progress will be that the Federal Republic has Republic for the fourth time. on a budget surplus of €36 billion. Yet lead Europeans to take seriously the idea expelled at some point – but that seems applied for one of the seats soon to It will be her last stint in office – and lurking in the small print of the coalition of providing for their own security. You unlikely. As an analogy, imagine how be vacated; as the publisher of this it is quite possible that she won’t even agreement are lots of hidden costs that might have suggested that they would much progress would have been made if newspaper, I would like to take this serve out the term. In many regards she jeopardize the “black zero” principle wake up if, say, Russia invaded two of its member states had been allowed to join opportunity to give reasons why is a diminished figure. The coalition of Germany’s budget policy. For this neighbors and annexed their territory; or if the euro before making reforms to meet Germany would be a good choice agreement saw her make important reason, strife and friction between the the European neighborhood was afflicted the Maastricht convergence criteria. It is for membership of the Security concessions to the Social Democrats; coalition partners can’t be ruled out. by a string of proxy wars, driving millions clear that the adopted model does not Council. according to some analysts, 70 percent Foreign policy is a different story. of people from their homes, including build capabilities. In the nearly 70 years since it was of the government program betrays the Irrespective of who will be the next over a million refugees to Germany alone; But PESCO is equally unlikely to build founded on May 23, 1949, the handwriting of her junior partner. foreign minister, Germany’s diplomacy or if many European countries would unity. The development of real capa- Federal Republic of Germany has In addition, she will be marked become victims of bilities could have become Europe’s largest economy, was constrained to by continuity terrorist attacks; rebuilt solidarity providing its now 82.5 million relinquish six min- and consis- or if cyber war had in a union divided inhabitants with a life of freedom, istries to the SPD, tency. Europe traveled from sci- between north, peace, unity, security as well as chief among them THIS WILL BE will again be ence fiction novels PESCO IS south, east and material and cultural prosperity. For the weighty foreign, the top prior- to the front pages west by showing the stability of these five pillars of finance and labor MERKEL’S ity. Her first of newspapers. UNLIKELY how Europe can a successful life, the people in this departments. As trip abroad And if what for- make a difference country can thank two things: their the CDU/CSU had will take Chan- eign intelligence on the matters that own effort and the goodwill of their garnered a third of LAST STINT cellor Merkel agencies were TO BUILD most concern its neighbors and friends. the vote in the elec- to Paris. Presi- fighting informa- citizens, from Rus- We, the citizens and their tions, and the SPD IN OFFICE dent Emman- tion wars inside UNITY sian aggression government, are willing and able only 20.5 percent, uel Macron the EU, and even and uncontrolled to repay this goodwill to other this caused consid- will finally trying to hack our borders to ter- countries that could benefit from erable uproar in the get a German elections? And if rorism and cyber our positive experience as they party. Merkel had to placate her critics response to his ambitious plans to one of the EU’s two nuclear powers – attacks. But the “fake inclusivity” of continue working to erect those five by rejuvenating the cabinet – by 15 push the EU project forward. While the one with the highest share of the PESCO means that these issues will be pillars to enable their citizens to live years on average – and appointing Jens Paris and Berlin do not yet see eye to EU’s defense spending – chose to leave addressed by small-scale technical proj- successful lives. Spahn, her young, dynamic and ambi- eye on a fair number of issues, they will the EU? And then to top it all off the ects rather than by a political initiative Freedom: All is nothing without tious challenger, to the health ministry. leave no stone unturned in building a United States began retreating from many that could capture imaginations. More it. Peace: All is in doubt without She will no longer be able to lay down stronger, more efficient EU, revamping theaters and even questioning its commit- significantly, putting unity above effec- it. Unity: There is no peaceful the line unquestioned. the eurozone and beefing up Europe’s ment to NATO? tiveness forces countries that are serious coexistence without it. Security: The agenda of the new grand coalition defense configuration. Most people in 2007 would have had to about European defense to join coalitions There is no peace without it. is contained in the 177-page agreement And there are other quickly evolving suspend their disbelief about any of these outside EU structures, like France with its Prosperity: There is no dignity hammered out by the party negotiators challenges they need to tackle: averting fantastic developments. Upon doing so, newly launched European Intervention without it. But how does it all work? – a document chock-full of good inten- – or girding themselves to fight – a trade they might have predicted that European Initiative. Tackle each goal separately, and tions, but also dreary detail. Manag- war with Donald Trump’s America; countries would be trying intently to How can EU leaders launch a real then all of them as a whole? In ing immigration and the integration of confronting an aggressive Russia and an tackle their vulnerabilities and launch security initiative to turn things around? facing this conundrum, Germany the 1.2 million refugees who recently ever more assertive China; handling the a major new initiative to build strategic First, Europe must look more carefully can apply and share its nearly 70 flocked to Germany is an urgent task. Brexit negotiations; coping with Italy’s autonomy. And that is actually what at removing the barriers to investment years of knowledge and experience. The country’s “welcome culture” is a malaise; containing the bleak illiberal- happened – at least in speeches. When in military capabilities. The EU should Our country’s membership of the thing of the past; some 200,000 new- ism of Viktor Orban’s Hungary and the horror scenarios unfolded, every one exclude investment in European defense United Nations Security Council comers a year will be its future limit.