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Ideology, Nationalism, and Identity in Basque Regional Elections

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Ideology, Nationalism, and Identity in Basque Regional Elections Ideology, Nationalism, and Identity in Basque Regional Elections Stephen Ansolabehere Maria Socorro Puy Segura May 14, 2013 Abstract Parliamentary elections to the Basque Autonomous Community have a stable multi- party system that regularly produces long-lived minority and coalition governments. More amazing still, this stable party system arises in the context of a complex social and political setting in which the society cleaves along at least two lines { ideology and nationalism { and in which people have strong identities tied to the Basque language and culture. This paper analyzes voting behavior in parliamentary elections in this region to understand how ideology, nationalism, and identity sustain this party system. We extend the conventional spatial voting model to incorporate identity issues. Our empirical analysis shows that ideology, nationalism (or regional autonomy) and identity strongly predict vote choice, and, surprisingly, that ideology is much more salient in vote choice than nationalism. Interestingly, the analysis suggests that identity politics both polarizes voting and sustains a stable multi-party system. 1 1 Why Basque Parliamentary Elections The Basque region of Spain holds a distinct fascination. It boasts an ancient language with mysterious roots, one of the earliest recorded representative assemblies in Eu- rope, and a long history of occupations and resistance. Today, this region of just over 2 million people has become a model for regional government in Europe. The Basque Autonomous Community has emerged as one of the most economically successful re- gions of Spain with a relatively stable political system. The BAC is closely eyed by regions of other countries where local political leaders seek either greater autonomy or even independence.1 For Political Science, Basque Parliamentary elections present an interesting, yet puzzling, case. Basque regional elections are an excellent, clear case of multi-party politics in a multi-dimensional setting. Typically three to four main parties divide 90 percent of the votes and seats, and no party has ever won a majority of seats in the Eusko Legebiltzarra. A number of smaller parties often play a pivotal role in determining which coalition governments can form. Further the parties are cleaved by multiple issues that cannot be boiled down to a simple left-right or conservative- socialist orientation. The electorate in the Basque country divides along at least two dimensions{a traditional Left-Right dimension, common in most European democra- cies, and a Nationalist dimension, ranging from complete incorporation into Spain to complete independence of the region from Spain (D´ıezMedrano 1995). The primary goal of this paper is to describe this setting and electoral choice in the region. Valence issues, such as the economy, and demographic and cultural features of the electorate also matter in vote choice, but the Left-Right and Nationalist dimensions cleanly cap- ture the main features of the party system in the Basque region and most of the voting behavior. An unusual aspect of the electoral and political system is the role of language. The Basque language, Euskerra, is often freighted with nationalist sentiments, especially 1The political conflict itself has been economically costly (Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003), so resolving the issue of autonomy and independence likely will have further benefits. 2 because both the Spanish and French governments outlawed the language at various times over the past 80 years. As we will show speaking Euskerra maps into electoral divisions among the region's voters. However, the language question appears to have an independent effect on voting behavior from the effect of Nationalism, or the degree of autonomy. Language politics in the region can be separated from Nationalism, and should be viewed as identity politics. Identity politics, we argue, do not map neatly into the usual spatial model with valence issues, and this presents a opportunity to extend the spatial model to incorporate a non-position, but nonetheless spatial issue.2 The cultural and political divisions in the region would seem to make for a dan- gerously unstable political situation, especially given the history of civil unrest and violence during the 1930s and 1970s and 80s.3 In an electoral setting with multiple issues and multiple parties, political and social choice theory would typically predict highly unstable and shifting political coalitions.4 Empirically, M¨ullerand Strom (2000) and Diermeier et al. (2003) find that situations similar to those in the Basque Country typically have long-lasting negotiations to form a government, short-lived governments, and frequent changes in the party in power.5 Here lies the puzzle. Following the 10 elections in the BAC, government formation has taken relatively little time, with the average period between elections day and the investiture vote of 2 months. For most of its 35 years, the Eusko Legebiltzarra has been governed by one party, the Partido Nationalista Vasco in Spanish or Euzko Alderi Jeltzalea in Euskerra, commonly called the EAJ-PNV or just PNV. Cabinet members have only been modified once during the legislature (following the 1990 elections; see Table 2). Only from 2009 to 2012 was someone from a party other than the PNV chosen by the Legebiltzarra to be President of the Basque Autonomous Community. 2See Bourne (2010) describes the difficult political situation that nationalist parties are in, and Mart´ınez- Herrera (2002) study the effects of political decentralization on citizen identification with their region. 3See Joseba Zulaika's excellent anthropology of the origins of the ETA uprising in the 1970s. 4Starting with Baron and Ferejohn (1989), many other authors have analyzed the difficult problem of inter-party bargaining from a non-cooperative game theory approach (see Ansolabehere et al. 2005, footnote 6 for additional references). 5See also Laver and Schofiel (1998) and Laver and Shepsle (1994). 3 The minority and coalition governments led by the PNV have been very stable and long-lived, and all but once have the governments lasted the full duration of the election cycle. A remarkable run of one party, minority government emerges out of a seemingly impossible political situation. The question is why. Why is there so much political stability in a region where the electoral and cultural circumstances ought to make for political chaos? The answer, we believe, lies precisely with the nature of identity voting. 2 The Party System in Basque Elections The party system in Basque Parliamentary elections consists of a mix of regional parties and federal parties. The federal parties are the two primary parties in Spain that vie for control of the Cortes Generales as well as compete in regional elections. These are the Partido Popular (PP) and Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (PSOE), which runs as the Socialist Party of the Basque Country (PSE) in the region's elections. In the Cortes Generales, the PP and PSOE oppose each other, but in 2009 they managed to find common ground and formed a coalition government in the Basque parliament. Two other parties with presence in the national Spanish government also have a notable presence in the Basque regional elections. These are Izquierda Unida, IU or United Left and Union Progreso y Democracia (UPyD). IU runs in the Basque parliamentary elections as Izquierda Unida-Ezker Batua (IU-EB) and in recent years in league with the Green Party. UPyD is a liberal party that rejects Basque and Catalan nationalism, and was formed in 2007. It often aligns with the PP. The principal regional party is the PNV. Its main political platform is national autonomy, but on economic and social matters it promotes a very pragmatic platform. Various factions have split from the PNV and formed their own parties over time. The most significant fracture came in 1985 when then-Lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea Urriza clashed with PNV party leader Xabier Arzalluz over the direction of the party. As a result of the internal party struggle, Garaikoetxea founded Eusko Alkartasuna 4 (EA) in 1986, and he was replaced as president of the regional government by Jose Antonio Ardanza. The most controversial political parties in Basque regional politics are the leftist and nationalist parties organized under a variety of banners. Herri Batasuna (HB), or Unity of the People, formed in 1978. The party won 17,500 votes in the Basque and Navarre regions in the Spanish General election of 1979, enough to earn a seat in the Cortes Generales. But, under the Spanish constitution they were not allowed to claim that seat because of ties to ETA, especially ETA members running as candidates under the party label and ETA funding. In the 1980 regional elections in the Basque Country, HB received 17 percent of the vote { enough for 11 seats { but again was not permitted to sit in parliament. HB was renamed Batasuna (Unity) and ran with a second independence party Euskal Heritarrok, until Batasuna was banned in 2003.6 To fill the void left by HB/EH, the Communist Party of the Basque People reappeared in the 2005 election and won 12 percent of votes, and Aralar emerged attempted to capture the independence-oriented left voters, but it was never as successful as HB/EH. Bildu, a loose coalition of candidates and factions committed to independence, formed in the early 2000s and proved quite successful in local elections. In 2011 a number of leftist parties and political leaders who strongly support independence or greater autonomy { including Aralar, EA, Alternatiba, and some former Batasuna members { ran under a new party label Eukal Herria Bildu (EHB), or Basque Country Gather. In the 2011 Spanish general election EHB won a stunning 24% of the vote in the region, trailing only EAJ-PNV. The presence of candidates from Batasuna and Aralar in the EHB prompted a challenge to the legality of the new party in the run-up to the 2012 Basque Parliament election.
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