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Manitoba Transportation Report

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Manitoba Transportation Report Manitoba Transportation 2010 Report Prepared For: Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation University of Manitoba Transport Institute This report was prepared for Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Provincial Government, which provides no warranties as to the validity or accuracy of the information presented herein. Table of Contents 1. The Economic Impact of Transportation in Manitoba.......................................................................... 1 Gross Domestic Product ...................................................................................................................... 2 Labour Income ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 15 Expenditures ....................................................................................................................................... 22 2. Logistics and the Regional Canadian Economy .................................................................................. 25 Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................... 25 Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 31 Labour Income .................................................................................................................................... 35 3. The State of the Macro Economy ........................................................................................................... 40 The Global Growth Improvement ................................................................................................... 42 Shape to Recovery .............................................................................................................................. 43 Recovery Next ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Manitoba Economic Situation ........................................................................................................... 45 Economic Indicators ........................................................................................................................... 47 Monetary and Energy Indicators ..................................................................................................... 55 4. Domestic Trade and Infrastructure Utilization ................................................................................... 65 Province/Territories Exports Leaving Canada from Source Province ........................................ 65 Usage of Manitoba’s Transportation Infrastructure ..................................................................... 69 Rail Commodity Traffic Flows ......................................................................................................... 73 Truck Commodity Traffic Flows...................................................................................................... 82 Rail & Road: Imports and Exports ................................................................................................... 91 Port of Churchill ................................................................................................................................. 98 5. NASCO Trade ........................................................................................................................................ 102 Exports ............................................................................................................................................... 102 Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 106 6. Manitoba International Trade .............................................................................................................. 111 Exports ............................................................................................................................................... 111 Top 10 Export Commodities ...................................................................................................... 111 Top 10 International Export Partners ....................................................................................... 112 Mode of International Export for Manitoba 2009 ................................................................... 113 Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 115 Top 10 Import Commodities by Value ..................................................................................... 115 Top 10 International Import Partners by Value ...................................................................... 116 Mode of International Imports for Manitoba 2009 ................................................................. 117 Mode of Imports - Manitoba Historic Comparison ................................................................ 118 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................... 121 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................. 125 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................... 129 1. The Economic Impact of Transportation in Manitoba1 The activities of various sectors of an economy are intertwined with those of other sectors such that the economic impact is magnified or multiplied throughout the overall economy. Measurement of such effects is undertaken through economic impact models which quantify inter-sectoral relationships. There are numerous designs of such models, which vary primarily in the scope of the “net” which defines the direct impacts of the sector under investigation. For this study of transportation in Manitoba, the definition applied is the commercial carriage of goods and people. This definition is advantageous to producing sound measures of the impact. It limits criticism of overstatement of the effects by limiting the sectors considered to those directly performing commercial transportation. It excludes allied sectors such as service industries (e.g. hotels), repair shops, and equipment manufacturers. When included, these allied sectors open the measured economic impact to criticism since the multiplicative effects of activities from the direct industry include the impacts on these allied sectors. This restrictive definition of the sector minimizes the validity of any criticism of double counting. The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics regularly updates the parameters of the Input/Output model which proxies the activities of and interactions among various sectors of the economy. It is these interactions which provide the iterative process of the model. While making the model a more accurate reflection of the economy, these revisions compromise the validity of comparisons made to previous reports. The robustness of economic impact results are dependent on the quality of information acquired about the direct (or “driver”) sector, and the quality of the input/output matrix used to derive the indirect and direct effects. Manitoba is a relatively small economy with few firms in many sectors. One consequence of this is general weakness of direct and input/output data. Two approaches are available to acquire data for the direct sector. Data can be acquired from third-party data providers or the sector can be directly surveyed. In both cases, estimates of the economic drivers of the entire population are developed from the survey. This analysis uses data acquired from third party data providers, principally Statistics Canada. This approach reduces costs, and allows the creation of historical results, which could assure greater consistency of that historical information. The modes included in the analysis are: road (for-hire trucking),2 rail, aviation, couriers and local messengers,3 and urban and inter-urban bus. 1 Annual data updates, along with changes in multipliers, may yield results that are not comparable among annual reports. 2 For-Hire trucking is the industry segment that explicitly covers truck transport. It consists of companies whose purpose is to transport freight for remuneration to destinations in domestic or international markets 3 Couriers and local messengers include the major international courier companies such as FedEx. 1 Based upon the “driver” data provided, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics generates indirect and induced effects using multipliers created by its analysis of inter-sectoral relationships. Gross Domestic Product Estimated growth in total GDP for Manitoba derived solely from transportation activities4 is summarized in Figure 1.1. Total GDP measured on this basis rose from $2.89 billion in 2004 to $3.37 billion in 2008. Annual contribution to GDP has been on the rise, increasing by 16% since 2004. Figure 1.1: Total GDP from Transportation
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