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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, December 02, 2020

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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, December 02, 2020 Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, December 02, 2020 FROM EQUITY REPORT KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Call takeaways with PGN (PGAS IJ.BUY.TP: IDR.1,800) on Close Close 9M20 financial results: Conservatively positive (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) During con call with PGN IR, we were advised that distribution Asean - 5 Asean - 5 volume increased further in November to the level of 875bbtud Indonesia 5.725 2,0 (9,1) 1.060 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 (+2.8%MoM) and targeting to at least maintain the current levels Thailand 1.421 0,9 (10,1) 2.578 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 during December depending on the number of Cuti Bersama days. Philippines 7.010 3,2 (10,3) 205 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 Nonetheless, the FY20F target of 870bbtud is not attainable, but Malaysia 1.602 2,5 0,8 1.890 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 840-850bbtud volumes were still being discussed. PGAS maintains Singapore 2.814 0,3 (12,7) 1.008 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 that is able to preserve gas spread above psychological level Regional Regional US$2/mmbtu with 73% of gas quota at the subsidized price of China 3.452 1,8 13,2 75.721 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 US$6/mmbtu. To that end PGAS will absorb any available LNG Hong Kong 26.568 0,9 (5,8) 19.779 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 inventories at US$3-4/mmbtu. Japan 26.788 1,3 13,2 15.087 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 To see the full version, please refer to news section Korea 2.634 1,7 19,9 19.194 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 Taiwan 13.886 1,2 15,7 9.033 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 MARKET NEWS India 44.655 1,1 8,2 424 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 Nasdaq 12.355 1,3 37,7 252.674 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 MACROECONOMY Dow Jones 29.824 0,6 4,5 15.890 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490 ▪ Indonesian PMI moves into expansionary territory in Nov 20 ▪ Govt committed to imposing income tax on digital companies CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd next year Rate Rate ▪ Inflation in 2020 may reach a record low (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) CORPORATE Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.130 0,2 3,5 (1,9) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 ▪ Waskita Karya: Seeks to divest 11 toll roads by 2021 BI7DRRR % 3,75 (0,3) (0,3) (1,3) BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) 10y Gov Indo bond 6,17 (0,0) (0,4) (0,9) 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) PREVIOUS REPORTS HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY ▪ Astra International: Cautiously optimistic d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price ▪ Indofood Sukses Makmur: Stable performance (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ United Tractors: Conservative coal outlook Coal US$/ton 70 (0,4) 20,4 3,5 Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) ▪ Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra: Stellar margins Gold US$/toz 1.815 0,0 (4,2) 19,6 Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 lifted net income Nickel US$/mt.ton 15.985 (2,6) 5,7 14,6 Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Positives All Round Tin US$/mt.ton 18.642 (1,5) 5,2 8,5 Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) ▪ Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Still struggling in pandemic year SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY ▪ Poultry: Last culling of the year d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price ▪ Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Below estimates (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Solid effort, building a sustainable Cocoa US$/mt.ton 159 (0,2) 8,3 10,1 Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 path Corn US$/mt.ton 44 (2,1) 24,1 (27,3) Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 ▪ Jasa Marga: Going back to normal Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 47 (1,3) 26,1 (28,4) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 ▪ Mitra Adiperkasa: 9M20 Below, on a Positive Note Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 3.445 0,5 6,2 13,9 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: 9M20 in-line With Near Normal Top- Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 165 0,9 5,0 13,5 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 line Rubber USd/kg 1.205 N/A 2,8 20,5 Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 ▪ Semen Indonesia: Challenges remain but the future looks Pulp US$/tonne 399 - 2,1 11,0 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 bright Coffee US$/60kgbag 157 (1,2) (3,7) (1,4) Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ United Tractors: Better operational numbers in October 2020 Sugar US$/MT 37 (1,1) 11,5 8,6 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 ▪ Gudang Garam: Uncertainty remains Wheat US$/ton 1.164 (0,4) 10,1 23,4 Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) Soy Oil US$/lb 159 (0,2) 8,3 10,1 Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 SoyBean US$/by 44 (2,1) 24,1 (27,3) Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, December 02, 2020 MARKET NEWS MACROECONOMY Indonesian PMI moves into expansionary territory in Nov 20 IHS Markit said that the PMI for Indonesia in November stood at 50.6, higher than its level in October of 47.8, indicating expansion of domestic manufacturing activities. The latest PMI survey data shows a new improvement in the manufacturing industry during November, driven by higher production. New orders increased for the first time in three months, but the operating capacity remained in surplus. Consequently, companies remain cautious on investing in capacity and inventory, and the amount of labour and purchasing activities declined. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are rising. Following the easing of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in Jakarta in mid-October, companies increased production in November, with output rising to the highest level since the survey began more than nine and a half years ago. Demand also improved, with new business inflows increasing for the first time since August. Survey data shows order growth among consumers and manufacturers for investment goods, while manufacturers of semi- finished goods reported further declines in sales. On the price side, input cost inflation increased in November, with costs rising at the fastest rate for three months. Higher raw material prices and IDR depreciation pushed inflation higher. As a result, some companies passed on higher cost burdens to consumers through higher costs. However, the increase in output prices is still low and well below the increase in input costs. (IHS Markit) Govt committed to imposing income tax on digital companies next year The Ministry of Finance stated that the govt would still impose income tax on foreign digital companies operating in Indonesia next year. The income tax will be calculated by estimating the revenues derived from the calculation of VAT. This policy will be implemented even though a consensus of global taxation treatment on digital companies has yet to be reached. The consensus is still being discussed by OECD, with Indonesia as one of the members. The govt expects that a consensus will be reached next year. (Investor Daily) Inflation in 2020 may reach a record low The government expects the inflation rate for 2020 to reach a record low at 1.5%yoy due to decreasing purchasing power as economic activity is restricted during the lockdown and social distancing procedures amid the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) recorded an increase in the inflation rate from 0.07% in October to 0.28% in November. This reflects increasing prices of food commodities, such as chicken, eggs, and chillies that rose by 0.08%. (Kontan) CORPORATE Call takeaways with PGN (PGAS IJ.BUY.TP: IDR.1,800) on 9M20 financial results: Conservatively positive. During con call with PGN IR, we were advised that distribution volume increased further in November to the level of 875bbtud (+2.8%MoM) and targeting to at least maintain the current levels during December depending on the number of Cuti Bersama days. Nonetheless, the FY20F target of 870bbtud is not attainable, but 840-850bbtud volumes were still being discussed. PGAS maintains that is able to preserve gas spread above psychological level US$2/mmbtu with 73% of gas quota at the subsidized price of US$6/mmbtu. To that end PGAS will absorb any available LNG inventories at US$3-4/mmbtu. PGAS achieved US$372mn OPEX in 9M20, and with regards to sustainability of OPEX savings occurred in 3Q20 (3Q20 OPEX US$103mn, -33.3%qoq), PGAS team guided that rule of thumb is US$40mn OPEX per month, with expectation to record US$450-500mn for FY20.
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