CFA Society Indonesia Universitas Prasetiya Mulya

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CFA Society Indonesia Universitas Prasetiya Mulya CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Indonesia Universitas Prasetiya Mulya The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was submitted by a team of university students as part of this annual education initiative and should not be considered a professional report. Disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report. Receipt of compensation: Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue. Position as a officer or director: The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. Market making: The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities. Disclaimer: The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Society Indonesia, CFA Institute or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock. Universitas Prasetiya Mulya PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk. This report is published for educational purposes only by Infrastructure, Utilities, Transportation, and Energy Sectors students competing in CFA Institute Research Challenge 2018 Indonesia Stock Exchange Date : February 15th, 2019 Current Price : IDR 2,460 Recommendation : BUY Ticker : PGAS IJ (Bloomberg) Upside Potential : 20.73% Target Price : IDR 2,970 MARKET PROFILE Time for the Giant to Break-Free 52-Wk Price Range (IDR) 1,505 – 2,860 Backed by a favourable gas distribution industry outlook, PGAS is well positioned as a market leader to Avg. Trading Volume 90,396,068 achieve growth and further market penetration. We believe PGAS can overcome insecurity of supply and Shares Outstanding (Bn) 24.24 high capital expenditure, through capital expenditure efficiency and securing gas supply through Free Float 43,04% Pertamina’s gas holding. After considering the investment risks and future growth prospects, we arrived Market Cap. (Tn) IDR 59.63 at a BUY recommendation on PGAS with a 12-month target price of IDR2,970/share, reflecting a 20.73% P/E (ttm) 16.35x upside potential from its IDR2,460 closing price on 15/02/2019 based on our sum of the parts valuation P/BV 1.21x model. Our recommendation lays on the following key catalysts: USD/IDR 14,160 Strong Upcoming Demand from Gas Infrastructure Projects Government have set a target on gas power plant installation of 47.7 GW by 2030 vs current 13.98 GW Share Price Information (IDR) (growing 9.2% CAGR) (IRENA, 2017). The growing capacity will lead to a growing gas demand. However, inadequate pipeline network is currently a setback as it only provides 20-30% of the needed PGAS JCI infrastructure (Ministry of SOE, 2018). Therefore, government is expected to ramp up this figure up to 7000 80-100% by 2030F. Since this government-led plan will involve high expertise to be executed, the 6000 government will turn its favours on PGAS as the government’s leader in the gas sub-holding to deliver this product. On the other hand, PGAS will gain benefits from this, as the government will give incentives 5000 for construction in new market area in the form of 20 years monopoly rights (resulting in maximized IDR/Share 4000 margins as there will be no margin sharing between distributors) and IRR at 12% in that new market area (Company Presentation, 2019). 3000 Secured Supply from Gas Holding to Fulfil Enormous Potential Demand To fulfil the high potential demand, gas supply comes into the equation. The establishment of the 2000 government’s oil and gas holding will align Pertamina’s gas supply chain, securing more supply for PGAS. 1000600 The oil and gas holding means that Pertamina will turn in PGAS’ favour more as the leader in the gas sub- holding, in terms of transporting and distributing its gas. We expect more secured supply for PGAS to be 400 realized soon. To start with, PGAS will benefit from Pertamina’s 6 gas fields with a total potential of 200 281 mmscfd which are expected to fully commercialize by 2021 (Ministry of SOE, 2018). We see this holding initiative as a mutualism between Pertamina and PGAS. Pertamina can have more ease at 0 bringing more blocks to the commercialization process due to assurance of distribution through PGAS, Volume (Million) Volume while PGAS can benefit from the opportunity in transporting the potential supply. June-17 June-18 June-16 PGAS-Pertagas Pipeline Integration to Boost Synergic Value With a secure potential supply and huge potential demand, PGAS will need the infrastructure to match October-16 October-17 October-18 February-16 February-17 February-18 February-19 the supply and demand’s region. Currently, gas production in Indonesia aggregately is above gas demand (7,453 mmscfd vs 7,318 mmscfd), but lack of infrastructure has created gas supply imbalances in several Source: Bloomberg regions (Ministry of EMR, 2018). This is most evident in Region II and III (Figure 8) which runs a gas supply deficit while Region IV has a gas supply surplus. The acquisition of Pertagas will solve this uneven supply Upside Potential in 2019F problem. PGAS’ and Pertagas’ pipeline will be integrated, which will connect Region II, III, and IV’s pipeline network with a 576 km pipeline costing US$213.25 mn of CAPEX. The plan, expected to finish by 3500 2020, will bring an additional revenue of US$342.85 mn by 2023F. Revenue synergy along with cost savings from CAPEX duplication avoidance and SG&A savings will bring NPV of total synergic value at 3000 2,970 20.73% US$582.14 mn. 2500 2,460 Attractive Valuation with Strong Cash Flow Generator PGAS is trading at an attractive 12.7% 2019F FCF Yield and 5.9x 2019F EV/EBITDA (-1 std of 5-yrs historical 2000 average). With a turnaround performance, we believe incremental downside risk remains limited as there will also be lower dependency on upstream oil and gas portfolio post Pertagas acquisition. 1500 Therefore, PGAS’ developed infrastructure earnings characteristic will resurface. Key Financial Highlights 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F* 2020F 1000 Revenue Growth -4.37% 1.19% 11.88% 20.29% 7.41% Gross Margin 30.22% 26.85% 27.09% 27.29% 27.78% EBITDA Margin 26.23% 28.12% 26.68% 27.36% 27.62% June-16 June-17 June-18 EPS (IDR) 182.0 85.6 171.1 179.4 232.2 October-16 October-17 October-18 February-17 February-18 February-19 February-16 ROE 9.73% 4.63% 8.65% 9.18% 10.61% PGAS ROA 4.52% 2.35% 4.44% 4.44% 5.25% Current Price Interest Coverage 3.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 Target Price Debt/Equity 0.92 0.75 0.72 0.81 0.74 Source: Bloomberg Source: Company Reports, Team Estimates *Acquisition of Pertagas 1 Figure 1: Revenue Breakdown BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Established in 1965 as the National Gas Company of Indonesia, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Distribution (Persero) Tbk listed its shares in the Jakarta Stock Exchange in 2003 (Bloomberg code: PGAS IJ). PGAS 18% which moves mainly in B2B business has four distinguished business segments in the gas industry ranging Oil & gas 3% from upstream to downstream. As per 3Q18, distribution segment holds the biggest proportion to Others revenue at 79.2% (Figure 1) where the biggest customer comes from power generation sector. 79% Distribution Segment. Distribution segment’s activity is conducted by purchasing natural gas from suppliers and selling natural gas to end customers at a margin. Currently, profit margin for this business Source: Company Presentation 3Q18 segment is being regulated by Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Being the backbone of Figure 2: Distribution Segment Market Share company, which constitutes 79.2% of total revenue as per 3Q18, PGAS’ distribution segment holds the biggest market share of 76% in the gas distribution industry (Figure 2). Company serves various customer 3% segments: industrial, commercial, household, and gas-filling stations. Based on its contribution to 4% revenue, industrial customers are the biggest – constructing 97.7%, followed by commercial, household, 2% and gas-filling station which contributes 2.0%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Amongst industrial 76% 16% customers, power plant sector comprises 41% of total distribution volume to industry (Figure 3). As the main business of distribution segment is gas trading, the biggest cost comes from gas purchase, which comprises ~80% of total operational costs. Company’s distribution pipeline is currently 5,170 km long with total distribution volume of 849 mmscfd per 3Q18 (Figure 4). PT PGN (Persero) Tbk Transmission/Transportation Segment. Transmission business is conducted by transporting PT Energasindo Heksa Karya shippers’ (owners) gas through high-pressure transmission pipelines to the off-taker and receive toll fee PT Bayu Buana Gemilang PT Surya Cipta Indonesia per transported gas in return, as set by the Oil and Gas Downstream Regulatory Agency (BPH Migas).
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