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Key Actors and Abbreviations
Key actors and abbreviations The Assad regime and its allies ‘The regime’ Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President 2000– Hafez al-Assad, Syrian President 1971–2000 Asma al-Assad (née Akhras), Syria’s First Lady 2000– Maher al-Assad, brother of Bashar al-Assad, Commander of Republican Guard and 4th Armoured Division Anisa Makhlouf, mother of Bashar al-Assad Assif Shawkat, brother-in-law of Bashar al-Assad, head of military intelligence 2005–9, deputy minister of defence 2011–12 Rami Makhlouf, cousin of Bashar al-Assad, wealthy businessman Manaf Tlass, Republican Guard General, defected 2012 Farouk al-Sharaa, First Vice President of Syria 2006– Walid al-Muallem, Foreign Minister 2006– Bouthaina Shabaan, political and media adviser to the Syrian President 2008– Ba’ath – Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the ruling party of Syria since 1963 Mukhabarat – Set of notorious regime intelligence agencies Shabiha – Gangs of irregular pro-regime thugs NDF – National Defence Force, formed 2013 Russia Vladimir Putin, Russian President 2000–8, 2012–, Russian Prime Minister 2008–12 Dmitri Medvedev, Russian President 2008–12, Russian Prime Minister 2012–20 Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister 2004– Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Foreign Minister 2011– Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran 1989– xii 5146.indd xii 19/06/20 5:00 PM KEY ACTORS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiii Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian President 2005–13 Hassan Rouhani, Iranian President 2013– Ali Akbar Salehi, Foreign Minister 2010–13 Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister 2013– Qassem Suleimani, Commander -
The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
PRISM Syrian Supplemental
PRISM syria A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS About PRISM PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners Vol. 4, Syria Supplement on complex and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; 2014 relevant policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform America’s security and development Editor Michael Miklaucic Communications Contributing Editors Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct Alexa Courtney communications to: David Kilcullen Nate Rosenblatt Editor, PRISM 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) Copy Editors Fort Lesley J. McNair Dale Erikson Washington, DC 20319 Rebecca Harper Sara Thannhauser Lesley Warner Telephone: Nathan White (202) 685-3442 FAX: (202) 685-3581 Editorial Assistant Email: [email protected] Ava Cacciolfi Production Supervisor Carib Mendez Contributions PRISM welcomes submission of scholarly, independent research from security policymakers Advisory Board and shapers, security analysts, academic specialists, and civilians from the United States Dr. Gordon Adams and abroad. Submit articles for consideration to the address above or by email to prism@ Dr. Pauline H. Baker ndu.edu with “Attention Submissions Editor” in the subject line. Ambassador Rick Barton Professor Alain Bauer This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense edition of PRISM. Dr. Joseph J. Collins (ex officio) Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted Ambassador James F. Dobbins without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. -
What Does the Syrian Opposition Believe? | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds What Does the Syrian Opposition Believe? by David Pollock May 30, 2012 ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Pollock David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on regional political dynamics and related issues. Articles & Testimony here are increasing calls for international intervention in Syria after this weekend's massacre in Houla, where T Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces murdered more than 100 civilians. Obstacles to intervention remain, however, especially concern that the opposition to Assad's regime is dominated by religious fundamentalists. Until recently, for example, the Syrian National Council, a group of exiled opponents of the regime, was led by Burhan Ghalioun, whose unwillingness to counter the Muslim Brotherhood was widely viewed in the West as a troubling sign of Islamist influence. But a confidential survey of opposition activists living in Syria reveals that Islamists are only a minority among them. Domestic opponents of Assad, the survey indicates, look to Turkey as a model for Syrian governance -- and even widely admire the United States. Pechter Polls, which conducts opinion surveys in tough spots in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, completed the Syria opposition poll in December 2011. Respondents were contacted over a secure Skype connection by someone they could trust -- all native Syrians -- who asked them to fill out a short questionnaire anonymously in Arabic. Interviewers were selected from different social and political groups to ensure that respondents reflected a rough cross-section of overall opposition attitudes. To ensure confidentiality, the online survey could be accessed only through a series of proxy servers, bypassing the regime-controlled Internet. -
Faith-Based Organizations (Fbos) in the Palestinian Territories
Hidden Agents: Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) in the Palestinian Territories Ziyad Zaghrout A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Washington 2012 Reading Committee: Mary Kay Gugerty, Chair Leigh Anderson Aseem Prakash Program Authorized to Offer Degree: Public Affairs ©Copyright 2012 Ziyad Zaghrout 1 University of Washington Abstract Hidden Agents: Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) in the Palestinian Territories Ziyad Zaghrout Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Professor Mary Kay Gugerty Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs Recently, there has been a great deal of scholarly and popular interest in the activities of faith- based organizations (FBOs) in the Middle East. In particular, socio-economic services provided by FBOs have generated a heated debate in which advocates and opponents of these organizations have locked heads together in an attempt to advance their own arguments and advocate for policies harboring their views. While there has not been any absolute winner in the debate both camps, to an extent, agree that the service activities of FBOs have an implicit political component as the later seek to influence and modify the societal relations extending among the public, private and the not-for-profit spheres. Understanding the role of FBOs in Islamic societies is further complicated by a relative absence 2 of empirical research or even accessible descriptive data either within a single country or across countries. In an effort to limit this complexity, the research design underlying this dissertation focuses upon one case: the Palestinian Territories (PT). I examine the advocacy behavior of FBOs in the Palestinian territories and how they influence local level social policies. -
La Relation Bilatérale Franco-Syrienne Depuis 2000 Ruptures Et Continuités À Travers Le Prisme De La Présidentialisation De La Politique Étrangère Française
BANQUE DES MEMOIRES Master « Sécurité et défense » Dirigé par le Professeur Olivier GOHIN 2017 La relation bilatérale franco-syrienne depuis 2000 Ruptures et continuités à travers le prisme de la présidentialisation de la politique étrangère française Quentin GABIRON Sous la direction du Professeur Nicolas HAUPAIS UNIVERSITÉ PANTHÉON-ASSAS – PARIS II Droit – Économie – Sciences sociales Année universitaire 2016-17 Master 2 Sécurité et défense LA RELATION BILATÉRALE FRANCO-SYRIENNE DEPUIS 2000 RUPTURES ET CONTINUITÉS À TRAVERS LE PRISME DE LA PRÉSIDENTIALISATION DE LA POLITIQUE ÉTRANGÈRE FRANÇAISE Mémoire préparé sous la direction de M. le Professeur Nicolas HAUPAIS présenté et soutenu publiquement pour l’obtention du Master 2 Sécurité et défense – finalité professionnelle par Quentin GABIRON JURY Président : M. le Professeur Nicolas HAUPAIS Assesseur : CGA Arnauld CHÉREIL de la RIVIÈRE LA RELATION BILATÉRALE FRANCO-SYRIENNE DEPUIS 2000 RUPTURES ET CONTINUITÉS À TRAVERS LE PRISME DE LA PRÉSIDENTIALISATION DE LA POLITIQUE ÉTRANGÈRE FRANÇAISE L’Université n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans le mémoire; ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leurs auteurs. TABLE DES ABRÉVIATIONS IDE : Investissement direct à l’étranger IFRI : Institut français des relations AEIA : Agence internationale de l’énergie internationales atomique INA : Institut national d’administration AFP : Agence France presse MAE : Ministre des Affaires étrangères APE : Analyse de la politique étrangère MAEDI : Ministre des -
INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS on Conference Report
INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS ON Conference Report Thursday 20 September 2012 London School of Economics and Political Science TABLE OF CONTENTS Conference Programme 2 Introduction 3 The Regime 3 The Opposition 5 Economic Implications 7 Social Implications 8 Opportunities for Further Research 9 INSIDE SYRIA: 18 MONTHS ON Conference Report 1 CONFERENCE PROGRAMME Panel 1 – Inside The Regime The makeup of the Syrian Leadership, the Military and Shabiha, Business Networks and Alawis What went wrong with the Bashar Al-Assad Presidency? Dr Christopher Phillips, Queen Mary University The Military Balance of Power: The State of the Syrian Army (Retired) Bridgadier General Akil Hashem How Regional and International Factors Impact the Syrian Conflict Ghayth Armanazi, Political Analyst and Former Arab League Ambassador Panel 2 – Inside the Opposition The Nature and Dynamics of the Various Opposition Groups and Movements, Focussing on those Inside Syria The Syrian Opposition: A Balance Sheet Rime Allaf, Chatham House The Syrian Opposition: A View from the Inside Suheir Atassi, National Council of the Damascus Declaration for Democratic Change Armed Groups in Libya: A Comparative Look Brian McQuinn, Oxford University / Centre on Conflict, Development and Peace Building Panel 3 – Identity in Syria The Complex Influences on Identity and Allegiance and how these may affect the Course of the Struggle Violence as a Modality of Government in Syria Professor Salwa Ismail, SOAS Divide, Terrorise and Rule in the Syrian `Black Hole State’ Dr Abdelwahab El-Affendi, -
Islamism Within a Civil War: the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood's Struggle For
RETHINKING POLITICAL ISLAM SERIES August 2015 Islamism within a civil war: The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’s struggle for survival WORKING PAPER Raphaël Lefèvre, Carnegie Middle East Center SUMMARY: After 30 years in exile outside of Syria, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has become an important component of the western-backed Syrian opposition. Despite its influence, the expansion and radicalization of the Islamist scene in Syria challenges the legitimacy of the Brotherhood’s gradualist approach and constrains its presence on the ground. About this Series: The Rethinking Political Islam series is an innovative effort to understand how the developments following the Arab uprisings have shaped—and in some cases altered—the strategies, agendas, and self-conceptions of Islamist movements throughout the Muslim world. The project engages scholars of political Islam through in-depth research and dialogue to provide a systematic, cross-country comparison of the trajectory of political Islam in 12 key countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Libya, Pakistan, as well as Malaysia and Indonesia. This is accomplished through three stages: A working paper for each country, produced by an author who has conducted on-the-ground research and engaged with the relevant Islamist actors. A reaction essay in which authors reflect on and respond to the other country cases. A final draft incorporating the insights gleaned from the months of dialogue and discussion. The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. -
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor. Inclusivity the Order of the Day in Dealings with Syria's Opposition
Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik ments German Institute for International and Security Affairs m Co Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor WP S Inclusivity the Order of the Day in Dealings with Syria’s Opposition Petra Becker Summer 2013 brought severe setbacks for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Firstly, one of its most important regional supporters, Qatar lost its leading role in the Group of Friends of the Syrian People, the alliance of states and organisations backing Syria’s opposition, to Saudi Arabia. Secondly, the Brotherhood has been hit by stinging criti- cism of the Egyptian MB’s performance in government and the media witch-hunt against political Islam following the ouster of Mohammed Morsi. In the face of these events the Syrian Brotherhood – to date still a religious and social movement – post- poned the founding of a political party planned for late June. Thirdly, the Brotherhood – like its partners in the National Coalition which opposes the Syrian regime – bet on an American-backed military intervention in August/September. This intervention did not occur due to the American-Russian brokered agreement providing for Syria to join the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. As a result, the National Coalition and its Supreme Military Command have faced defections of major rebel forces, which may lead to a major shift towards Jihadi Salafism and the marginalization of moderate forces on the ground. Yet the Brother- hood remains the best-organised political force within the Syrian opposition alliances and still sees itself becoming the leading force in post-revolutionary Syria. Germany and Europe should encourage moderate forces whatever their political colours and foster the implementation of democratic concepts. -
Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Briefed on Syria Transition Roadmap
Contact: Hart Uhl FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tel. (202) 828-1228 Email: [email protected] SYRIAN EXPERT HOUSE DELEGATION MEETS WITH DEPUTY MINISTER BOGDANOV Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Briefed on Syria Transition Roadmap Washington, DC – On April 16, 2014, Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies (SCPSS) Executive Director Dr. Radwan Ziadeh and a delegation from the Syrian Expert House met with Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov and other representatives of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Syrian Expert House Delegation included: Dr. Radwan Ziadeh - Executive Director of the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, President of the Syrian Commission for Transitional Justice Dr. Osama Kadi – President, Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies; Head, Assistance Coordination Unit Dr. Monzer Makhous – Representative in Paris, National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Dr. Mahmoud al-Hamza – Chairman of the National Council of the Damascus Declaration Abroad In the meeting, the delegation gave a presentation on Syria Transition Roadmap, a document recently published by SCPSS and the Syrian Expert House detailing the Syrian opposition’s vision of the democratic political transition in Syria. The Roadmap covers constitutional reform and rule of law, political and administrative reform, electoral reform and political parties law, security sector reform, economic reform, and transitional justice and national reconciliation. The delegation highlighted the Syrian Expert House’s recommendations on electoral reform, explaining that future elections should be conducted in small districts and be based on a system of proportional representation. In addition, Dr Ziadeh stressed the necessity of reforming the security forces and dividing them into two branches: the national security forces and military intelligence. -
Situation Estimation the High Negotiations Committee The
www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 0 The High Negotiations Committee The Political Course and Outcome www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 1 The High Negotiations Committee The Political Course and Outcome www.jusoor.co Situation Estimation 2 Preface On the 9-10/12/2015, the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) had emerged after Riyadh Conference in order to unify the military and political forces of the Syrian opposition in addition to forming a delegation that can negotiate in the 3rd round of Geneva Negotiations. Since its establishment until its recent end, HNC considered as an exceptional situation that took place in the Syrian opposition because was a functional body with specific objectives contrary to the other political bodies. However, it used to fulfil other objectives that were not related to its tasks. Further, HNC was able to establish unique relations with the regional actors, while the Syrian National Coalition faced many situations with regards to regional polarization as a result of the trends of its president. Many political achievements were fulfilled by HNC during the past two years but it had failed to perform well in regards to its major task of negotiating the Syrian regime and lacked flexibility in dealing with this process. Conflicts also took place between HNC and the National Coalition, where the two political bodies worked in parallel lines that intersected sometimes. The course of Astana was in line with the course of HNC and caused the forced absence of HNC’s role in this regard. This report analyzes the conditions related to HNC’s emergence, course, and achievements during the last two years. -
Bulletin De Liaison Et D'information
INSTITUT KUDE RPARD IS E Bulletin de liaison et d’information n°332 novembre 2012 La publication de ce Bulletin bénéficie de subventions du Ministère français des Affaires étrangères (DGCID) et du Fonds d’action et de soutien pour l’intégration et la lutte contre les discriminations (FASILD) ————— Ce bulletin paraît en français et anglais Prix au numéro : France: 6 € — Etranger : 7,5 € Abonnement annuel (12 numéros) France : 60 € — Etranger : 75 € Périodique mensuel Directeur de la publication : Mohamad HASSAN Numéro de la Commission Paritaire : 659 13 A.S. ISBN 0761 1285 INSTITUT KURDE, 106, rue La Fayette - 75010 PARIS Tél. : 01- 48 24 64 64 - Fax : 01- 48 24 64 66 www.fikp.org E-mail: [email protected] Bulletin de liaison et d’information de l’Institut kurde de Paris N° 332 novembre 2012 • KURDISTAN D’IRAK : FORCES « DIJLA » CONTRE « HAMRIN », KURDES ET IRAKIENS AU BORD DE LA GUERRE • SYRIE : VERS UNE FORCE MILITAIRE UNIFIÉE DES KURDES ? • TURQUIE : DÉCISION DE JUSTICE STUPÉFIANTE DANS L’AFFAIRE PINAR SELEK • CULTURE : MORT DE SHOKROLLAH BABAN • CINEMA : TROIS FILMS KURDES À L’AFFICHE CULTURE KURDISTAN D’IRAK : FORCES « DIJLA » CONTRE « HEMRIN », KURDES ET IRAKIENS AU BORD DE LA GUERRE peine le conflit sur les région est sous la responsabilité pas reconnaître les forces Dijla ni hydrocarbures tempo - des Conseils provinciaux et les croire à leur succès opérationnel. rairement apaisé, c’est mouvements des forces Dijla À au sujet des régions déstabiliseront la sécurité de Loin de baisser le ton, Maliki a kurdes séparées du cette région et en bouleverseront envenimé la polémique en lan - Gouvernement Régional du la réalité politique.