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FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT - PART a Landscape Level Hazard Rating for Western Blackheaded Budworm in British Columbia

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FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT - PART a Landscape Level Hazard Rating for Western Blackheaded Budworm in British Columbia FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT - PART A Landscape Level Hazard Rating For Western blackheaded Budworm In British Columbia Forest Innovation Investment Number: R04-007CFS Project Title: Development of hazard rating systems for the western hemlock looper, western blackheaded budworm and forest tent caterpillar. Award Recipient's Name: Imre S. Otvos Organization: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service Team Members: Kangakola Omendja (current term) Nicholas Conder (CFS Research Technician) Holly Armstrong (term) Report for the Period from: April 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 Abstract The western blackheaded budworm (Acleris gloverana (Walshingham)) is a cyclic defoliator of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) and mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) in southern Alaska, British Columbia (BC.), and Washington State. At least 9 outbreaks of blackheaded budworm have occurred in British Columbia. Severe defoliation has been recorded repeatedly in the costal forest region of BC. Normally, the blackheaded outbreak collapses following two to four years of defoliation. To minimize the impact of defoliation by this pest, a hazard rating system has been develop to assist forest manager in dealing with outbreaks of this pest. 1 Introduction The purpose of creating the western blackheaded budworm hazard rating system is to provide a set of tools that forest manager can utilize to increase their ability to anticipate the damaging insect activities and modify harvesting plans if necessary. The western blackheaded budworm (Acleris gloverana (Walshingham)) is a cyclic defoliator of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) and mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) in southern Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington State. Other conifer hosts, such as amabilis fir (Abies amabilis (Dougl. ex Loud.) Forbes), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.), can also be attacked and defoliated when large – scale outbreaks occur in mixed stands with western hemlock (Furmiss and Carolin 1977). Periodic outbreaks of this pest result in severe defoliation in the western hemlock zones of North America (Otvos et al. 2001). At least 9 outbreaks of blackheaded budworm have occurred in British Columbia The spatial analysis of defoliation pattern of past outbreaks, and the overlay with biogeoclimatic units (Krajima 1965, Pojar et al.1987), elevation, and available climate data will help to identify and rate western hemlock stands vulnerable to western blackheaded budworm attacks. The aim of the year-end report is to identify and rate areas at risk to western blackheaded budworm outbreaks using geographical information system. Areas where outbreaks are most likely to occur can be identified and permanent pheromone trap sites can be established in these stands to monitor population changes through a complete outbreak. Monitoring trap catches will allow the detection of increasing insect defoliation (Otvos et al. 2001), which can then be used to develop a pest management system for this species similar to one developed for the Douglas–fir tussock moth (Shepherd and Otvos 1986). 2 Methods and Material 2.1 Defoliation map Annual pest surveys conducted by the Forest Insect and Disease Survey (FIDS) of the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS), form the time it was established in 2 1936 until its dissolution in 1996, used a variety of methods to determine the presence and extent of insect and disease outbreaks. Prior to the 1960s, surveys were conducted in British Columbia using boat and ground patrols, and sporadically by aircraft. From the 1960s onward, insect defoliation was mapped annually from the air, first by using fixed-wing aircraft, the later using a combination of fixed and rotary wing aircraft. Outbreaks were generally checked on the ground to verify the causal agents of the defoliation recorded from the air. Outlines of infestation were traced onto 1:250,000 scale topographic maps (NTS), producing an accurate assessment of pest activity from year to year. The historical FIDS pest outbreak survey maps were digitized and compiled into a database for the entire Province of British Columbia. The initial map projection was Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM). As coverages from each 1:250,000 NTS mapsheet were added together for each year, they were re-projected into the CFS- Pacific Region’s standard Lambert Conformal Conic Projection. For this paper, we used historic maps from all British Columbia western blackheaded budworm outbreak database from 1951 to 2001. 2.2 Data summary 1. Defoliation data: All defoliation data from 1951 to 2001 was combined together to produce a composite coverage. As data in the PFC database are in datum nad27, the composite coverage was reprojected to datum nad83 so it can be in the same datum than other data sets. 2. Biogeoclimatic zone of BC. This dataset up to date and was downloaded from the MSRM website. Initially the dataset was in BC Albers nad83 and was reprojected to Lambert nad83 to fit to the PFC official projection. 3. Elevation: the elevation coverage was interpolated from DEM point data set, using rivers and lakes as break lines. 2.3. Hardware and Software. The PFC has an extensive Geographical Information System. Most of the analysis has occurred using Environment System Research Institute’s (E.S.R.I) software program ArcGis 8.2 Desktop workstation. The data management was done within the ArcGis module ArcCatalogue, ArcTool Box, Arc and ArcEdit module. Map was produce using ArcMap module. The raster analysis was done in the GRID module. Part of the analysis was done manually or automated using AML (Arc Macro Language). Some data analysis and manipulation was done in the UNIX and Windows operating system using ArcView 3.1. 3. Defoliation pattern 3.1 Elevation In general, the majority of defoliation 90 % occurred in the elevation range of 200 – 1600 m (Fig. 1). 3 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 % ot Total defoliation 5.00 0.00 2200 + 200-399400-599600-799800-999 1000-11991200-13991400-15991600-17991800-19992000-2199 Figure 1: The distribution of defoliation by elevation range in meters. The main problem of using large-scale DEM data is that it does not account for detailed topography. This can be misleading. For example, where an area of low relief in the interior of B.C. has the same elevation as high relief of the coastal forest region. The fact that the high elevation of the coastal forest region has harbored the majority of the attacks is ignored. This data set was given low weight in the final hazard rating (Fig. 2). 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 % of total defoliation 10 0 AT CWH ESSF ICH IDF MH MS SBP Figure 2. Defoliation by biogeoclimatic zones 3.2. Biogeoclimatic Units In general most of the defoliation (73 % of total defoliation) by western blackheaded budworm occurs in the costal western hemlock biogeoclimatic zones (CWH). This biogeoclimatic zone occurs at low to middle elevations mostly west of 4 the costal mountains, along the entire British Columbia. The zone covers much of Vancouver Island, the Queen Charlotte Islands, and the Coast Mountains. The CWH is, on average, the rainiest biogeoclimatic zone in British Columbia. The mean annual temperature is about 8˚C and ranges from 5.2 to 10.5˚ C among the CWH sub-zones (B.C. Ministry of Forest, 1991). The other 27 % of defoliation occurred in decreasing order in Interior Cedar Hemlock (ICH) 15 %, Mountain Hemlock (MH) 8 %. The remaining 4 % occurred respectively within AT, ESSF, IDF, MS, SBP. 3.3. Western hemlock stands. The western hemlock is usually the most common species in the forest cover in the wet coastal region. Western hemlock regenerates freely under the canopy of mature stands on zonal sites and elsewhere if sufficient acid raw humus of decaying wood has accumulated on the forest floor (B.C. Ministry of Forest 1991). The western hemlock occurs in two ranges, a coastal range west of the Cascade and Coast Mountains, and an interior range in the Columbia Mountains west of the continental divide. (Daniel Gavin et al. 2003). These two ranges differ in term of climate and tree composition: The coastal range is generally cooler and moister than the interior. More over, the tree diversity is much greater in the interior than in the coastal range (Daniel Gavin et al.2003). In regard to tree diversity, the coastal range is likely to be more susceptible to the western blackheaded budworm defoliation because of the presence of pure hemlock stands, that is the main host for this pest. 4. Process Rational The rational behind the development of the western blackheaded budworm hazard rating is that it is a priority to find area that bear common characteristics to regions that had experienced past WBHB outbreaks. These common conditions are mapped and added together to determine locations across the province, which shares the similar specifics parameters as the regions where WBHB occurred. This process involves the following steps: a) Data research, gathering and manipulation b) Data mining c) Rasterization of parameters d) Proximity to past outbreaks calculation e) Weighting of parameters. f) Hazard Grid production g) Map production. Explanation: a) The data for this specific pest is not easy to gather. The data that is in the PFC spatial database is not always complete (eg some data are missing), some data were downloaded from the forest network webpage for the missing data. Also, data were prepared and manipulated (georeferencing, attribute and spatial data integration) before analysis. b) Data mining: Use of GIS to discover the relationships among mapped variables through overlay technique (identity). All environment variables were 5 overlayed to the defoliation to determine which characteristics of environment variable are suitable for the occurrence of blackheaded budworm outbreak. c) The environment and biotic parameters was rasterize after data mining to allow of use mathematics for the production of hazard and probability surface.
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